核 心 观 点 近日，在对等关税政策超预期的冲击下，人民币汇率快速贬值，国内债市也涨回年初水平。那么，汇率对 于利率究竟有何影响？更进一步地，人民币汇率贬值会制约央行货币政策宽松么？ 汇率对利率有影响么？ 汇率和利率本质上并不存在直接的推导关系，历史上 人民币汇率和10年期国债利率多 数时候呈反向关系，即汇率贬值时期往往债市走牛的概率较高。 不过，汇率贬值和利率下行并不一定同时出 现， 短周期内汇率和利率呈正向关系的情况也曾出现过， 持续时间大多都在一个季度以内，汇率和利率很快 仍将回归反向变动，一般出现在汇率和利率反映的经济预期分化或中美关系变化等背景下。根本上，国内利率 水平与货币政策操作密切相关，是对国内经济基本面变化的反映，而汇率仅阶段性影响货币政策节奏，不至于 扭转市场利率的走势。 汇率是货币宽松的掣肘么？ 回顾历史上的三轮人民币贬值周期，央行货币宽松并未暂停。相较于降息直接带 来资本外流而言，降准对汇率的影响相对中性，故在历次贬值周期内，央行对于降息更为谨慎。具体来看，央 行在两轮人民币走贬时期同时采取降准和降息，而在2018年至2019年的人民币贬值周期内，央行并未调降过政 策利率， 主要的区别 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, expect increased volatility and remain cautious [6][7] - For stock indices, be optimistic about the long - term performance and wait for opportunities to go long [10][11] - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains strong, and previous long positions can be held [12][13][14] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [15][16] - For iron ore, investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [17][18][19] - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [20][21] - For ferroalloys, consider manganese silicon out - of - the - money call options at low levels and short - covering opportunities for silicon iron at the bottom, or consider out - of - the - money call options at low levels if there are large spot losses [22][23] - For crude oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [24][25][26] - For fuel oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [27][28][29] - For synthetic rubber, expect weak oscillations [30][31] - For natural rubber, expect weak oscillations [32][33] - For PVC, expect bottom oscillations [34][35][37] - For urea, expect short - term weakness [38][39] - For p - xylene (PX), expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and operate with caution [40][41] - For PTA, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [42] - For ethylene glycol, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [43][44] - For staple fiber, expect bottom adjustments following the cost side, and participate with caution [45] - For bottle chips, expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and pay attention to cost price changes [46][47] - For soda ash, expect short - term weakness [48] - For glass, expect a weak market sentiment [49] - For caustic soda, price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games, and beware of premature market movements [50][51] - For pulp, expect a weak and low - level repeated oscillation [52] - For lithium carbonate, expect a weak operation [53] - For copper, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [54][55] - For tin, expect price oscillations, control risks in the short term, and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56] - For nickel, control risks in the short term, and wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize [57] - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, consider short - selling at high levels on rebounds [58][59][60] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom support range [61][62] - For palm oil, remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [65][66] - For cotton, wait to short sell the far - month contract at high prices after a rebound [67][68][69] - For sugar, remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] - For apples, consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] - For live pigs, consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] - For eggs, wait for the release of the current market sentiment [81][82] - For corn, remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [85][86] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a differentiated close of Treasury bond futures, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts having different price changes. The central bank conducted 250.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 222 billion yuan [5] - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6] Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw slight oscillations in stock index futures, with different changes in the main contracts of various indices [8][9] - The first - quarter fiscal revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 4.2%. In March, total social power consumption increased by 4.8% year - on - year [9] - Although there are concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets [10] Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver main contracts with different price changes. The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and other factors are expected to drive up the price of gold [12] - Be optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and previous long positions can be held [13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Steel prices are at a low valuation, and the downward space may be limited [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in iron ore futures. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products. Consider buying at low levels [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw weak oscillations in coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. Consider short - selling on rebounds [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw slight declines in the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. Consider options opportunities based on different situations [22][23] Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rise and then fall. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC deepened its production - cut agreement. Consider a long - biased operation [24][25][26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall. Asian fuel oil demand is unlikely to increase sharply. The sales of marine fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah Port recovered in March. Consider a long - biased operation as the market may be oscillating upward [27][28][29] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of synthetic rubber. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and it may maintain weak oscillations [30] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw different price changes in the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber. Global supply is expected to increase, demand is affected by tariffs, and it may maintain weak oscillations [32] PVC - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of PVC. Supply pressure eases marginally, demand recovers weakly, and it may oscillate at the bottom [34][35][37] Urea - The previous trading day saw an increase in the main contract of urea. In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Agricultural demand is in a lull, and new production capacity is being released [38] P - Xylene (PX) - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PX2509 main contract. PX装置 maintenance and downstream PTA load reduction. It is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [40][41] PTA - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PTA2509 main contract. Supply and demand fundamentals have few contradictions, and it may oscillate at the bottom [42] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of ethylene glycol. Supply improves due to coal - based plant maintenance, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [43][44] Staple Fiber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the staple fiber 2506 main contract. Downstream demand is weak, and it may adjust at the bottom following the cost side [45] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw an increase in the bottle chips 2506 main contract. Raw material prices fluctuate, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [46][47] Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2509 contract of soda ash. Production and inventory are at high levels, and the market may remain weak in the short term [48] Glass - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the main 2509 contract of glass. A production line changed its product type. Production lines are at a low level, and inventory changes little. The market sentiment is weak [49] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the main 2505 contract of caustic soda. Production decreased last week, and demand has slightly improved. Price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games [50][51] Pulp - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of pulp. Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream开工 rates varied. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [52] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of lithium carbonate. The trade tariff event affects demand, and supply remains high. It is expected to operate weakly [53] Copper - The previous trading day saw an upward oscillation in Shanghai copper. The price increased, and the spot market had limited supply. Consider a long - biased operation [54] Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in tin prices. The Bisie tin mine may resume operation, and Indonesian mining costs have increased. Consumption data is good, and prices are expected to oscillate [56] Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in nickel prices. The US tariff event has a negative impact on the market. Supply is tightened, and cost support is strong, but demand may weaken in the off - season [57] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Supply and demand are imbalanced, and prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [58][59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw declines in soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts. Brazilian soybean production is high, and domestic supply is abundant. Consider different strategies for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil had a slight decline. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory is at a low level. Remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian products, and domestic inventories are at high levels. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread [65][66] Cotton - The previous trading day saw a weak oscillation in domestic cotton. US cotton export sales increased, and the planting rate is lower than in previous years. Textile exports are affected by tariffs, and domestic demand is weak. Consider short - selling the far - month contract at high prices [67][68][69] Sugar - The previous trading day saw a strong oscillation in domestic sugar. Brazilian sugar production increased, and Indian sugar production was lower than expected. Domestic inventory is neutral, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures rise and then fall. Cold - storage inventory decreased rapidly, and the market sales are good. Consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] Live Pigs - The previous day saw a slight decline in the national average price of live pigs. Demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] Eggs - The previous trading day saw an increase in the average price of eggs in the main production areas. Egg production capacity is increasing, and consider waiting for the release of market sentiment [81][82] Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the corn main contract. The sales of the current season are almost over, and port inventory is high. Supply pressure exists in the short term, and consumption is slightly increasing. Remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] Logs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of logs. A tropical cyclone may affect shipments. Inventory is relatively neutral, and beware of a rapid decline [85][86]

Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of 2024, the rapid decline in government bond yields has significantly outpaced the decrease in policy interest rates, indicating a potential "overshoot" phenomenon. Investment institutions, primarily small and medium-sized banks and asset management firms, have substantially increased their allocation to bond assets, leading to a surge in bond trading volume and a swift decline in government bond yields, which poses potential risks. Regulatory authorities are advised to enhance communication and supervision to guide the market back to rationality, while investment institutions should optimize asset allocation strategies and improve risk management capabilities to prevent market risks [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Decline in Government Bond Yields - In 2024, China's government bond yields have been on a continuous decline, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from 2.56% at the beginning of the year to 1.68% by the end of December. The decline can be divided into four phases [2]. - **Phase 1 (Early January to Late April)**: The yield fell from 2.56% to around 2.35% due to expectations of interest rate cuts and a slow supply of government bonds, leading to an "asset shortage" scenario. By mid-April, the yield reached approximately 2.23% before rebounding to 2.35% due to regulatory warnings about bond market risks [3]. - **Phase 2 (Late April to Mid-September)**: After regulatory concerns, yields stabilized around 2.30%. However, increasing economic downturn expectations and weak equity market performance led to renewed declines, with yields dropping to around 2.23% by June [4]. - **Phase 3 (Late September to Late October)**: Following a series of monetary policy announcements, yields initially rose to about 2.25% but then stabilized in a narrow range of 2.1% to 2.2% due to weak economic demand [5]. - **Phase 4 (Early November to End of December)**: Despite external factors like the U.S. elections and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, yields continued to decline, reaching around 2.0% by the end of December, with the 1-year yield falling below 1% for the first time since 2009 [6]. 2. Investment Institutions' Role in Yield Decline - The continuous decline in government bond yields is closely linked to the central bank's monetary policy, which has been aimed at countering economic downturns through rate cuts and liquidity injections. The reserve requirement ratios for large financial institutions have decreased significantly, releasing over 10 trillion yuan in liquidity [7]. - In 2024, the People's Bank of China implemented several measures, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, which contributed to a bullish bond market. The expectation of continued monetary easing led investment institutions to increase their bond allocations [8]. - Investment institutions have significantly increased their bond trading activities, with total bond market transactions reaching 416.3 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.56%. Government bond transactions alone accounted for 125.14 trillion yuan, a 52.74% increase from the previous year [9][10]. 3. Potential Risks from Aggressive Bond Allocation - The aggressive increase in bond allocations by investment institutions, particularly among small and medium-sized banks and non-bank financial institutions, has led to a rapid rise in bond prices and a potential overshoot in yields. This has created a positive feedback loop where rising prices lead to increased expectations of further price increases [11][12]. - Regulatory authorities have issued multiple warnings regarding the risks associated with excessive leverage and trading behaviors in the bond market. Despite these warnings, trading enthusiasm remains high, with significant increases in leverage among investors [13][14]. - The market's current state, characterized by high bond prices and low yields, poses risks of a market correction, particularly for institutions focused on yield management. A potential sell-off could trigger panic and exacerbate market volatility [15]. 4. Recommendations for Regulatory and Institutional Actions - Regulatory authorities should enhance communication and supervision to stabilize investor sentiment and guide institutions towards rational trading practices. This includes increasing the frequency of market communications and conducting periodic sell operations to cool down the market [16][17]. - Investment institutions are advised to optimize their asset allocation strategies, diversify their portfolios, and improve risk management practices to mitigate potential market risks. This includes adjusting the duration of bond holdings and maintaining a proportion of liquid assets to address potential redemption pressures [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - Private banks and rural banks, once known for high deposit rates, are now actively abandoning high-interest deposit strategies as major banks lower deposit rates below 2% [1][2][3] Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Many banks have reduced their deposit rates to below 2%, with significant cuts observed in three-year and five-year deposit products [2][3] - For instance, Ping An Bank's three-year fixed deposit rate was lowered from 2.05% to 1.65%, a decrease of 40 basis points [2] - Rural banks like Xingning Zhujiang Village Bank have drastically cut their rates, with two-year, three-year, and five-year fixed deposit rates dropping to 1.50%, 1.60%, and 1.55% respectively [3] Group 2: Trends in Interest Rates - The current round of interest rate adjustments reveals two significant trends: rising consumer loan rates and the emergence of inverted deposit rate structures [4] - Consumer loan rates, which had previously been low, are now increasing, eliminating the arbitrage opportunities that existed between deposit and loan rates [4] - In some cases, banks are offering lower rates for longer-term deposits compared to shorter-term ones, indicating a shift in deposit strategies [4][5] Group 3: Underlying Reasons for Rate Cuts - The primary reason for banks lowering deposit rates is to reduce liability costs amid ongoing pressure on net interest margins [8][9] - As of Q4 2024, the average net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.52%, a historical low, with listed banks averaging 1.65%, down 19 basis points from 2023 [8] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, aligning with the banks' strategies to lower deposit rates [9]

数量工具先行，静待利率工具 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 去年末，在降息预期较强的情况下，国债收益率"无视"央行多次提醒大幅回落， 10 年国债一度跌破 1.6% 。 年初以来，为避免债券收益率过低对货币工具的制约，央行通过暂停国债购入、回笼流动性等操作，有意引导国内资金面处于紧平衡，推动国债收益率回 升。 2 月以来债券市场持续调整， 国债收益率曲线转向熊平，DR007利率大幅高于OMO利率， 1 年期及以内国债收益率重回 1.5% 左右， 10 年国债收益 率相比于此前低点回调超过 20BP ， 市场降息降准预期落空。 但事情正在发生变化。 3 月 21 日，央行公布《货币政策委员会一季度例会通稿》， 这是近年来时间最早的一季度例会 。其中对国债的表述从四季度的"充实完善货币政策工 具箱，开展国债买卖，关注长期收益率的变化"变为"从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化"，表明债券收益率过低对货币 工具的制约有所减弱，政策更加重视防范金融市场风险，避免债市大涨大跌，维护金融市场稳定。 3 月 24 日，央行预告在 25 日采用"固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标"方式投放 4500 ...

中债策略周报 2025.2.10-2025.2.16 | 分析师： | 曹潮 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BVH841 | | 联系电话： | 852-96581360 | | 邮箱： | caochao@cnzsqh.hk | 1 中国债券市场基本面、货币政策与资金面： 中国债券市场展望： 2 基本面和货币政策：1月信贷数据实现"开门红"；实体贷款新增5.2万亿元，同比多增3793亿元，其 中企业中长期贷款明显回升，说明建筑业、制造业新增项目逐渐启动；M1较前值回落0.8个百分点至 0.4%，主要受高基数影响。货币政策方面，Q4货政执行报告中新增"实施好适度宽松的货币政策"， 并在"强化逆周期调节"后新增"择机调整优化政策力度和节奏，预示今年货币宽松力度加大；公开 市场操作方面，"本周央行净回笼4849亿元，其中逆回购投放10303亿元，到期16052亿元。 资金面：本周资金面继续收紧，DR001、R001周均值分别较前一周上行7bp、6bp，隔夜和7天资金 利率利差此间大幅缩小甚至倒挂，资金分层现象整体较节前缓解。 基本面和货币政策来看，1月金融数据实现"开门红"，反应政策端对供给 ...

今天最主要的内容，就是关于会议解读的那一块我为了不耽误事，单独发了一篇，劳驾诸位点一下文章最上面的"猫笔刀"，可以进入到我的主页观看《暴 涨了，真暴涨了》。 …… 1、10年国债收益率创下新低，上周不是破2了嘛，今天低至1.941%，由于目前市场普遍预期明年会有更宽松的货币政策，因此降息的预期也上来了，我 前几天和一个债券分析师小伙伴聊，都觉得明年下调40-50bp是有可能的，所以债券利率走低也是情理之中。中国资本市场这四五年，综合回报率最高的 就是债券，综合下来年化4.5%左右。 很多读者搞不清楚利率和债券的关系，简单解释就是反比关系，利率下降，债券就会上涨。所以货币宽松的周期，也是债券的慢牛市。 2、11月cpi指数+0.2%，ppi指数下降2.5%，一个是消费指数，一个是出厂价格指数，都不太好，但也都在预期之内。11月份食品价格普跌，鲜菜-13.2%、 猪肉-3.4%、鲜果-3%、水产品-1.3%。 3、中国保险行业协会发布了一个统计人力资源报告，里面显示保险从业人员的教育程度提升了，本科以上学历占了72%，并且主动离职率显著降低。保 险行业一直是巨大的就业海绵，从业人员学历提升其实从侧面能反应出竞争激 ...