Market Overview - Domestic futures market shows mixed performance with corn rising over 1% while lithium carbonate and other commodities like pure alkali, glass, and crude oil declining over 1% [1] - The market is experiencing heightened volatility with significant movements in various commodity prices [1] Commodity Performance - Lithium carbonate futures dropped by 4.47% to 76,420, indicating a bearish trend in the lithium market [2] - Corn futures increased by 1.02% to 2,181, reflecting a positive sentiment in the agricultural sector [2] - Other commodities such as焦煤 (coking coal) and焦炭 (coke) also saw declines of 2.36% and 1.67% respectively, suggesting a broader downturn in industrial commodities [2] U.S. Market Sentiment - U.S. stock market showed mixed reactions ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, with major indices initially rising but facing selling pressure [3] - Nvidia's disappointing data center revenue and guidance led to a post-market drop of 5% in its stock price, highlighting investor concerns [3] - The upcoming U.S. GDP data release is anticipated to influence market sentiment, particularly in relation to gold prices which are supported by rising risk aversion [3]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading at approximately 0.6488 against the US dollar, reflecting a 0.05% decline from the previous close of 0.6491 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicated in its meeting minutes that further monetary easing may be necessary within the next year, depending on economic data performance [1] - Market expectations suggest that the RBA may pause any action in September but could lower the interest rate to 3.35% in November [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that the AUD/USD is attempting to break out of a descending channel, indicating a potential shift from a bearish to a bullish trend [2] - The current price is above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6476, suggesting increased short-term price momentum [2] - A successful breakout above the immediate resistance area around 0.6590 could confirm the bullish trend, potentially leading to a test of the monthly high of 0.6568 and the nine-month peak of 0.6625 [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, the Politburo meeting in July maintained the stance of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, and the uncertainty of tariffs remains high. There is a risk of a post - export - rush decline, so the bull - market foundation remains unchanged. In the short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has strengthened since late June. The bullish equity market has put pressure on the bond market. Although the economic data in July weakened marginally, it still showed short - term resilience, making it difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. A short - term bond - market rebound does not constitute a trend. Currently, the upward momentum of the A - share market has slowed, the bond market's sensitivity to the stock market has decreased, and with the central bank's active support for the capital market, bond - market sentiment has improved, and short - term varieties are more resilient than long - term ones [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The A - share market shrank and declined in the afternoon, boosting long - term bond sentiment. Long - term treasury bond futures closed significantly higher. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all maturities declined, with long - term yields falling mostly within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.75750%, down 0.6bp [8][9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank's net withdrawal did not prevent the inter - bank funding market from loosening. There were 580.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The central bank conducted 405.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 474.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined. Short - term funding rates showed mixed trends, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits falling 3.5bp to 1.315% and the 7 - day rate falling 2.82bp to 1.49%. Medium - and long - term funds rose slightly, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rising 4bp to around 1.64% [10] 2. Industry News - The Party Committee of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized further deepening industrial assistance to Tibet. Central state - owned enterprises are encouraged to develop characteristic plateau industries in Tibet, increase investment in infrastructure, and promote major projects such as the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway. They should also enhance ethnic unity through various means [13] - The 13th plenary session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held, with discussions on formulating the "15th Five - Year Plan". Different committee members put forward suggestions on developing new - quality productive forces, integrating the digital economy with the real economy, boosting consumption, and enhancing scientific and technological innovation capabilities. The US Secretary of Commerce said that details of the US - Japan agreement would be announced this week, involving Japan's commitment of $550 billion in investment in the US for domestic production of semiconductors, antibiotics, and rare earths [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on the trading of treasury bond futures contracts on August 26, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and position changes, were provided. Also, information on the inter - maturity spreads of main treasury bond futures contracts and inter - variety spreads (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year) and the trends of main treasury bond futures contracts were mentioned [6][15][16] - **Money Market**: Information on the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, the changes in the weighted inter - bank pledged - repurchase interest rates, and the changes in the inter - bank deposit pledged - repurchase interest rates were provided [30][34] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) was provided [36]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the general public budget revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, a significant rise of 3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the highest monthly growth this year[4] - Tax revenue grew by 5.0% year-on-year, up 4 percentage points from last month, while non-tax revenue fell by 12.9%, a decline of 9.2 percentage points[4] - Government fund revenue in July decreased by 11 percentage points to 9.4% year-on-year, while land transfer revenue dropped by 14.6 percentage points to 7.0%[12] Group 2: Market Trends - The equity market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high[14] - Macro factors supporting the market include active credit creation, a shift from safe to risk assets, and a weak dollar environment[15] - The market is not yet at unsustainable levels, as indicated by trading volume and retail investor participation[14] Group 3: U.S. Monetary Policy - Fed Chair Powell's recent dovish comments have increased market expectations for rate cuts in September and December, with an anticipated total reduction of approximately 54 basis points[23] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3, a significant increase of 3.5 percentage points, indicating economic resilience despite inflationary pressures[20]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to further cut interest rates in the coming year to achieve its policy goals, with the pace of cuts dependent on economic data [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The RBA recently lowered its key interest rate to 3.6%, which is still considered "restrictive" [1] - The RBA has cumulatively cut rates by 75 basis points during the current easing cycle, reaching the lowest level since April 2023 [1] - The RBA's board members unanimously believe that further rate cuts may be necessary to sustainably bring inflation back to the target range while maintaining full employment [1][2] Group 2: Economic Context - The RBA is cautious about the economic outlook due to high uncertainty regarding total demand and potential supply [1] - There are signs of recovery in private demand, but uncertainty remains regarding the "neutral interest rate" [2] - Australia's economy showed signs of recovery in the three months ending in June, driven mainly by household consumption and trade, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2% [3] Group 3: Global Monetary Policy Environment - Global policymakers are responding to the economic impact of increased U.S. tariffs, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy in September [3] - Other central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada, have also implemented easing measures in recent months [3] - Economists predict that the RBA will cut rates two more times by March 2026, bringing the cash rate down to 3.1% before entering a pause [3]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising nearly 0.5% and both the ChiNext Index and Shanghai Composite Index turning positive after a previous decline of over 1% [1] - Over 3,200 stocks in the market are showing gains, with sectors such as gaming, Huawei Ascend, and aquaculture leading the increases [1] - Citic Securities suggests that the market is in a resonance window of policy support and liquidity easing, with trading volume reaching historical highs, indicating a significant increase in investor confidence [1] Group 2 - The technical indicators show overbought conditions and sector differentiation, which may lead to short-term volatility, prompting investors to focus on a dual-driven logic of "policy mainline + performance verification" [1] - Opportunities in sectors such as equipment upgrades, 5.5G, and AI computing power are highlighted as more certain investment prospects, while investors are advised to avoid stocks with excessive price increases lacking performance support [1] - Everbright Securities notes that with the upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chairmanship and expectations of a significant interest rate cut cycle starting in September, domestic monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative, contributing to a sustained upward market trend [1]

Group 1 - The gold market continues to show strong momentum, with prices steadily rising due to dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference, alleviating market concerns about inflation and reinforcing expectations for a rate cut in September [1] - Powell's remarks are seen as a significant turning point in the macroeconomic environment, providing favorable support for the medium to long-term outlook of gold [1] Group 2 - Swiss Post announced the suspension of regular postal services to the United States starting August 26, due to the U.S. ending the tax exemption policy for imports valued under $800, requiring all goods to prepay tariffs [2] - This new regulation deviates from the Universal Postal Union standards and has prompted postal operators in several European countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, to follow suit and suspend parcel services to the U.S. [2] - Swiss Post is actively seeking solutions to resume services, particularly focusing on personal gifts valued under $100, aiming to restore normal operations to meet cross-border mailing demands [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold has stabilized above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands after breaking through significant resistance, confirming a short-term bullish breakout [3] - The support level at 3350 remains solid, allowing the bullish trend to continue, with potential further upward movement towards the 3400-3420 range [3] - As long as the support level is not breached, gold prices are expected to maintain a strong upward bias in the short term [3]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation of the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July maintained the "moderately loose" stance on monetary policy, and there is high uncertainty in tariffs with the risk of a post - rush - export decline. Short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has strengthened since late June, and the bullish equity market has pressured the bond market. The marginal weakening of July's fundamental data still shows short - term resilience, making it difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. The short - term bond market rebound is unlikely to form a trend. Currently, the stock - bond seesaw has slightly weakened, the central bank is actively supporting the capital market, and short - term bond varieties are more resilient [11][12]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A - shares reached new highs, but the bond market was slightly desensitized. The Shanghai real - estate policy met expectations with limited impact on the bond market. After continuous adjustments, the bond market's protection cushion thickened, and with the central bank's active support and rising overseas easing expectations, treasury bond futures rebounded across the board [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities declined, with the long - end yields dropping more, about 3bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was 1.7640%, down 2.1bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank actively supported the capital market, and the inter - bank capital market loosened. There were 2665 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2884 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and injected 6000 billion yuan of MLF. The inter - bank capital sentiment index declined, short - term capital interest rates fluctuated, the overnight weighted average of inter - bank deposits fell 6.2bp to 1.35%, the 7 - day rate rose 5.4bp to 1.52%, and the medium - and long - term capital remained stable [10]. 4.2 Industry News - A personal consumer loan discount policy will be launched on September 1, which is expected to accelerate institutions' expansion into consumption scenarios. Market rumors about restrictions on bond trading methods for small and medium - sized institutions were not confirmed by industry insiders. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" real - estate sales season is approaching, and policies have achieved positive results in promoting the real - estate market [13]. - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank meeting increased market bets on a September interest - rate cut [14]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on trading data, cross - maturity spreads, cross - variety spreads, and price trends of treasury bond futures was provided [6][17][21]. - **Money Market**: Data on inter - bank repurchase rates, SHIBOR term structure, and trends were presented [28][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curves was given [38].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a rebound with the ChiNext index turning positive after an initial drop, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] Market Performance - The Shenzhen Component Index has risen by 0.31%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has narrowed its decline to 0.15% [1] - The trading volume in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the 65th consecutive trading day, with a decrease of over 200 billion yuan compared to the same time yesterday, and an estimated total trading amount of nearly 2.7 trillion yuan for the day [1] Market Analysis - According to CITIC Securities, the current market is in a resonance window of policy support and liquidity easing, with trading volume reaching historical highs, indicating a significant increase in investor confidence [1] - However, there are warnings about potential short-term volatility due to technical overbought conditions and sector differentiation [1] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adhere to a "policy-driven + performance verification" dual-driven logic, focusing on certain opportunities in sectors such as equipment upgrades, 5.5G, and AI computing power, while avoiding stocks that have risen excessively without performance support [1] Economic Outlook - Everbright Securities notes that with the upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chair next year, there are expectations for a significant interest rate cut cycle starting in September, which, combined with continued domestic monetary easing and optimistic sentiment, suggests a potential upward trend in the market [1]

Group 1 - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 3 trillion yuan, reaching 3.14 trillion yuan, marking the second highest record after 3.45 trillion yuan on October 8, 2024 [1] - A-shares have seen a continuous increase in trading volume, with over 1 trillion yuan for 63 consecutive trading days and above 2 trillion yuan for 9 consecutive days, setting historical records [1] - Major A-share indices rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.51% to 3883.56 points, a cumulative increase of over 25% since the low in April, approaching the 4000-point mark [1] Group 2 - There is a notable shift in asset allocation among residents, with a decrease in bank deposits and an increase in non-bank financial institution deposits, indicating a movement of funds from traditional savings to capital markets [2] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July reached 1.9636 million, a nearly 71% increase year-on-year, reflecting strong interest from new investors [2] - Institutional investors are also increasing their participation, with a significant rise in their allocation to ETF and index-enhanced funds, contributing to the market's upward momentum [2] Group 3 - The A-share market is benefiting from multiple favorable factors, including ongoing capital market reforms, a slowdown in IPOs, and a tightening of refinancing, which collectively reduce market burdens [3] - Monetary policy remains accommodative, with continued foreign capital inflows providing ample liquidity to the market [3] - The improvement in the mid-year performance of listed companies, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, supports the ongoing market rally [3]