2025 年 05 月 13 日 证券研究报告 | 金融工程周报 关税下调之后，市场分歧仍存 市场环境因子跟踪周报（2025.05.09） 分析师：柏逸凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524100001 电话：021-20321081 邮箱：baiyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 向 — 市 场 环 境 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 （2025.04.30）》2025-05-07 2、《关税问题反复，大盘延续稳健—市场 中 观 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 （ 2025.04.27 ）》 2025-04-29 3、《市场进入降波阶段，风格稳定性上升 —量化数据看板跟踪周报（2025.04.20）》 2025-04-23 风 险 特 征 解 析 — 量 化 策 略 视 点 》 2024-12-17 投资要点 报告统计时间为 2025.05.05-2025.05.09。 分析师：程秉哲 静观其变，谋而后动。关税下调之后，可适度控制仓位，静观其变， ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand, with financial institutions encouraged to meet diverse funding needs [1] - A new initiative has been launched to establish a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care relending program, aimed at increasing financial support for key service sectors [2] - The report highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to reduce overall financing costs and enhance the supply capacity of consumer finance institutions [1][3] Group 2 - There is a growing focus on supporting improved and new types of consumption, as traditional consumption growth faces challenges due to market saturation [3] - The government aims to guide financial institutions in optimizing credit products and providing differentiated services to support service consumption and new consumption models [3][4] - A systemic approach to financial support for consumption is necessary to avoid fragmented policies, with a call for coordinated efforts from the central bank and fiscal departments [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for financial support to boost consumption, which is crucial for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing economic growth [1][2] - The People's Bank of China has proposed measures to lower the overall financing costs in society and enhance the funding capabilities of consumer finance institutions [1][3] - There is a notable increase in household savings, with new household deposits exceeding 3 trillion yuan in March, while new household loans decreased by 9.3% year-on-year in the first quarter [2] Group 2 - Financial support for consumption should focus on reducing the cost of consumer loans, with the interest rate for the newly established service consumption and pension relending set at 1.5% for 21 financial institutions [3] - The report highlights the need to strengthen support for improving consumption and new types of consumption, as traditional consumption growth is facing pressure [4] - The government aims to create a systematic approach to financial support for consumption to avoid fragmented policies, which may lead to short-term effects [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing consumer spending in China through improved income, social security, and consumption quality, while advocating for a systematic approach to consumption policy that aligns supply and demand effectively [1][2]. Group 1: Demand Side - The foundation for enhancing consumer spending lies in stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, which are crucial for maintaining residents' asset expectations and consumption willingness [4]. - Over 400 million people in China are classified as middle-income households, defined by an annual income between 100,000 and 500,000 yuan [4]. - The government aims to restore residents' balance sheets by ensuring stability in property and stock markets, thereby boosting consumer confidence [4]. Group 2: Supply Side - The shift towards a service and digital economy necessitates an increase in the supply of quality goods and services, as traditional goods consumption is declining [5][6]. - The rise of sectors such as cultural tourism, healthcare, and education indicates a growing demand for service consumption, with online retail's share of total social retail sales increasing from under 13% in 2015 to over 30% currently [5][6]. - Key areas for supply enhancement include green consumption, high-end products, and new consumption models, particularly in electric vehicles and smart home appliances [6]. Group 3: Government Coordination - There is a need for a coordinated consumption policy framework that addresses the diverse and multi-layered consumer demands across different regions and demographics [7]. - Central government policies should focus on overall planning and leverage fiscal incentives and major project layouts to stimulate consumption [7]. - Local governments should tailor policies to fit regional consumption habits and economic conditions, fostering a collaborative ecosystem between central and local authorities [7].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations on May 9, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping over 2% and the Hang Seng Index declining by 0.3% [1] - The Hong Kong consumption sector showed mixed performance in early trading, with the Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) slightly down and trading volume approaching 25 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The Ministry of Commerce released a report on May 8, emphasizing the need to boost consumption and expand domestic demand to promote economic recovery, focusing on new consumption models and enhancing consumer momentum [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index, which covers a balanced range of industries, unlike A-share consumption investments that primarily focus on liquor [2] - The index includes various sectors such as e-commerce, dining, tourism, and cultural media, reflecting a higher proportion of new consumption, which may better capture the recovery in consumer sentiment driven by recent policies [2] - Data from Suning.com indicated a significant increase in sales during the May Day holiday, with a 61% year-on-year growth in home appliance trade-ins and a 104% increase in sales at retail cloud stores, highlighting strong consumer demand for high-quality electronics [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand to drive economic recovery, highlighting the potential of new consumption trends among young consumers [1] - The Ministry of Commerce's report outlines initiatives to cultivate new consumption, focusing on IP (intellectual property) creative design and the establishment of IP consumption landmarks, which are expected to enhance consumer engagement [1] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a V-shaped rebound, with significant gains in sectors such as blind boxes, national trend clothing, gold jewelry, and new energy vehicles, indicating a positive response to consumption policies [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities reported that various local governments and enterprises implemented measures during the May Day holiday to stimulate consumption, including issuing consumption vouchers and promoting trade-in activities, which effectively boosted demand in sectors like home appliances and automobiles [2] - Data from Suning.com indicated a substantial increase in sales during the holiday, with home appliance trade-ins seeing a 61% year-on-year growth and retail cloud stores reporting a 104% increase in sales, reflecting strong consumer demand for high-quality electronics [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) tracks the Hong Kong consumption index, which is characterized by a higher proportion of new consumption sectors compared to A-shares, including e-commerce, consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, dining, tourism, and cultural entertainment [1][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to optimize consumer supply and fully unleash domestic demand potential to enhance consumption's role in economic growth [2][3] - The government is implementing special actions to boost consumption, focusing on demand-driven and market-oriented strategies, particularly in the ready-to-drink beverage sector [2] - The government encourages companies like Mixue Ice City to improve R&D capabilities, introduce new popular products, and enhance digital oversight across the supply chain to ensure food safety [2] Group 2 - Urban commercial circles are identified as crucial platforms for consumer activity and city vitality, necessitating high-standard planning and development to attract flagship stores and cultivate new consumption scenarios [3] - The government aims to elevate consumption as a fundamental driver of economic growth, promoting policies that enhance consumer spending in major goods and services [3] - There is a focus on improving consumer capacity and conditions, protecting consumer rights, and creating an optimized consumption environment to stimulate demand and support sustained economic momentum [3]

智通财经5月8日电，《旗帜》杂志近日刊登商务部部长王文涛署名文章《大力提振消费 全方位扩大国 内需求 推动经济持续回升向好》，其中提到，培育新型消费，着力增强消费动能。随着科技快速发展 和消费需求升级，数字、绿色、智能、健康等新型消费呈现快速发展态势。我们积极顺应这些发展趋 势，加快培育新型消费业态。积极推进首发经济。鼓励国内外优质商品和服务品牌开设首店、举办首发 首秀首展；发挥好重点展会作用，培育一批首发中心、首发经济集聚区，不断丰富首发平台载体。加快 发展数字、绿色、健康消费。加快传统消费数字化转型，推动数字产品、数字服务、数字内容、数字渠 道各领域创新提质；健全再生资源回收体系，开展二手商品流通试点，畅通资源循环利用链条；实施促 进健康消费专项行动，加强优质农产品产销衔接，支持自由贸易试验区、自由贸易港发展医疗旅游、生 物医药等健康产业。促进"人工智能+消费""IP+消费"。推动人工智能与商贸流通深度融合，培育一批人 工智能消费品牌，加强人工智能产品展销推广；打造IP（知识产权）创意设计和新品发布平台，建设IP 消费商业地标，推出IP消费经典路线，拓展沉浸式消费空间。 商务部：促进"人工智能+消费""I ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of the "Guangdong Province Consumption Boost Special Action Implementation Plan," which includes 31 measures across eight areas to stimulate consumer spending and support economic recovery [1] - The plan emphasizes the importance of employment and income growth, aiming to create over 1.1 million new urban jobs by 2025 and training over 780,000 skilled workers through various initiatives [1][2] - Specific measures include enhancing basic living guarantees for key groups, improving educational resources, and promoting service consumption, particularly in areas related to the elderly and children [2] Group 2 - The plan supports large-scale consumption upgrades, including initiatives for automobile replacement and home renovation, with a target of starting the renovation of at least 600 old residential communities by 2025 [2] - It encourages cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen to relax vehicle purchase restrictions and increase car purchase quotas to stimulate the automotive market [3] - The plan also aims to foster new consumption models and technologies, creating more application scenarios for innovations such as "Artificial Intelligence+" and "Robotics+" [2]

Group 1 - Guangdong Province is launching a special action plan to boost consumption, focusing on the development of new types of consumption, particularly through the integration of artificial intelligence and various technologies [1][2] - The plan emphasizes the promotion of AI applications in sectors such as elderly care, education, healthcare, government services, home decoration, and shopping payments, aiming to create demonstration applications in these areas [1] - Guangdong will accelerate the application of new technologies like AI large models, virtual reality, and digital twins to create integrated digital and physical scenarios, enhancing the digital consumption experience [1] Group 2 - The plan includes the "Robot+" initiative to explore and expand the application scenarios for robotics in consumer markets [2] - Guangdong aims to systematically reduce consumption restrictions, particularly in the real estate sector, by reviewing and adjusting existing purchasing, transfer, credit, and pricing limitations to stabilize the market [2] - The province encourages cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen to relax vehicle purchase restrictions and implement new policies to facilitate car ownership, shifting from purchase management to usage management [2]