炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：云观经济 文：董忠云 刘庆东 王警仪 李博伦 庞晨 杨子萌 摘要 本周海外迎来圣诞假期，美股"圣诞行情"或已开启，虽然全球市场交投清淡但市场情绪较为良好。A股 方面，本轮经济转型牛为慢牛，春季躁动相比与以往，中枢抬升或更加稳健，且持续时间更长。一方 面， 12月中旬全球市场对于AI泡沫和日央行加息的双重担忧下，A股震荡区间的下沿已被进一步夯 实，同时海外双重担忧已逐渐被市场消化，因此本轮春季躁动行情起点或已基本明确，此后如有调整则 应更积极处理。另一方面，当前国内基本面稳增长的效果仍需进一步确认，本轮慢牛行情下，春季躁动 或为震荡抬升，因此不宜过于激进，后续等待新的催化出现后，A股中枢有望再创新高，并开启新一轮 行情。 回顾历史上A股两轮较大的科技景气度投资行情——移动互联网行情和新能源车行情。具体复盘发现， 这两轮景气度投资行情均可分为三个阶段。首先，资本开支底部回升确认产业趋势，估值上升；进一 步，业绩得到验证，为行情接力；最后，业绩增速见顶后，行情进入尾声。 自2022年11月ChatGPT发布以来，近两年AI产业链多个环节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A500 ETF Southern (159352) is experiencing a tight market with significant trading activity and continuous net inflows, indicating strong investor interest and potential for future growth [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 29, 2025, the A500 ETF Southern (159352) had a turnover of 4.03% and a transaction volume of 1.903 billion yuan [1] - The underlying index, the CSI A500 Index, shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Maiwei Co. leading with a 12.29% increase, followed by Guangwei Composites at 10.78% and Goldwind Technology at 10.01% [1] - The CSI A500 Index is the second-largest broad-based index tracked by A-share ETFs, providing a balanced industry and market capitalization distribution that closely reflects the overall A-share market [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - The CSI A500 Index is characterized by a high allocation to emerging industries such as electronics and military, with a significant weight on self-controlled stocks, highlighting new productivity features [1] - The index's core financial indicators are strong, with attractive valuations and historical performance demonstrating high elasticity and resilience against downturns, making it a quality asset for long-term investment [1] - Major stocks in the CSI A500 Index include CATL, Kweichow Moutai, Ping An Insurance, and China Merchants Bank, among others [1] Group 3: Fund Flow and Investor Sentiment - Major institutional investors are increasingly adding to their positions in A500 ETF and other broad-based products, contributing to stable incremental capital in the market [2] - Despite potential seasonal fluctuations in net subscriptions, the impact on the capital market is expected to be limited, with accelerated net inflows from financing capital following increased subscriptions [2] - The appreciation of the offshore RMB is likely to attract foreign capital back to the Chinese market, further improving the capital landscape [2] Group 4: Cost Efficiency and Accessibility - The A500 ETF Southern (159352) offers low tracking error and significant excess return rates, with a low average premium/discount rate, providing advantages of low deviation, precise tracking, and scale support [2] - With a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, the A500 ETF Southern offers the lowest fee structure in the industry, providing a high-precision, low-cost investment channel [2] - High liquidity in the market meets trading demands, while accessible fund options facilitate convenient investment strategies [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.43%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.88%. The automotive and non-ferrous metal sectors showed strong gains, with Xpeng Motors increasing by 5.12% and Ganfeng Lithium rising by 3.93% [1] - CITIC Securities indicated that after a one-sided rise in September, the Hong Kong stock market has experienced a volatile adjustment in October due to fluctuating overseas macro expectations. Quality assets in the Hong Kong market have re-entered a high cost-performance zone, supported by continuous northbound capital allocation, profit expectation recovery, and an improving macro environment towards year-end [1] - Huatai Securities noted that the market is still in a left-side layout phase, with the right-side turning point not yet clear. There is strong consensus on an early spring rally, but year-end supply and demand pressures create uncertainty for a "Santa rally," suggesting that the first quarter may present a higher probability phase for gains [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy suggested focusing on the technology sector as a long-term investment theme, which has seen a valuation decline after previous adjustments. With multiple favorable factors, a rebound is expected [1] - The consumption sector is anticipated to receive significant policy support, and current valuations are relatively low, indicating substantial long-term upside potential. Future attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and improvements in consumption data [1]

一一五年 2025年12月29日 经营动户,外 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读: 1、 市场回顾与展望:近期Ａ股表现强劲,沪指已录得８连阳。板块方面,有色金属、国防军工、电 力设备涨幅居前;美容护理、社会服务和银行跌幅居前。从驱动来看,(1近期行情反弹首先是流动性宽松 预期重新升温。海外美国通胀数据低于预期,美联储宽松预期再度打开;国内方面也存在新年初发债增加 而可能降准的预期。此外,从交易性因素看,随着新一年的到来,机构资金仓位回补也可能带来增量资 金。2其次,每年一、二月份,经济数据、财报都将处于真空期。传统"两会"政策预期和年初政策、基 建项目往往营造开门红氛围,也存在正向利多带动。3商品市场贵金属、有色以及部分反内卷品种涨势强 劲,带动股市对应板块表现强势。赚钱效应改善,吸引股市资金回流,形成正反馈格局。近期Ａ股成交额 已重新回升。综合对比历史来看,流动性、政策、题材三大利多驱动共振,近期行情的确符合典型的春季 躁动拉升逻辑。 60 后期来看,需关注沪指临近4000 点整数关口及前高 4034点位置附近,若新增边际驱动不足,可能带 来突破压力。可能需要关 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to experience a "cross-year + spring" rally, supported by favorable conditions such as liquidity and risk appetite [1][7][13] - Spring market conditions remain favorable due to loose liquidity, with private equity actively purchasing on dips and the appreciation of the RMB benefiting market liquidity [1][6] - Historical trends indicate that the A-share market typically experiences a "spring rally," and policy support is expected to continue, bolstering market confidence and attracting various funds [1][14] Group 2 - The market is anticipated to see a "systematic slow bull" trend, with a high level of confidence in the medium-term outlook, although short-term movements may require cautious observation [2][11] - The A500 ETF has shown significant net inflows, indicating stable incremental funds entering the market, despite potential seasonal outflows in the following quarter [12][7] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to resonate with the capital market, enhancing industry configurations and attracting foreign investment [10][9] Group 3 - The focus on structural opportunities in a volatile market suggests that sectors with low attention but high long-term ROE potential, such as chemicals and engineering machinery, should be prioritized [3][15] - The "transformation bull" market is characterized by economic structural changes and capital market reforms, indicating a shift in investment focus towards emerging technologies and large financial institutions [5][4] - The market is likely to experience fluctuations, especially as the year-end approaches and companies begin to disclose annual performance forecasts, which may lead to a preference for large-cap value stocks [8][11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market shows a positive trend with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3963.68, up by 0.10% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.54%, closing at 13603.89, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.14% to 3243.88 [1] - The CSI 300 Index also saw a gain of 0.32%, ending at 4657.24, indicating a generally bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 2: Economic Insights - The Chinese ETF market has reached a record high of 6.03 trillion yuan, marking an increase of over 60% year-to-date [23][24] - The Ministry of Finance announced a continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, aiming to expand fiscal spending [21][22] - The People's Bank of China is focusing on creating a favorable environment for long-term investments in A-shares, aiming to increase the scale and proportion of various long-term funds [27][28] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The establishment of the Human Robot and Embodied Intelligence Standardization Technical Committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to promote the development of the humanoid robot and embodied intelligence industry [29][30] - The total box office for Chinese films in 2025 reached 51.2 billion yuan, with over 1.22 billion viewers, setting new annual records [31][32] - The approval of 1771 games in 2025 marks the highest number in seven years, indicating a robust gaming industry [33] Group 4: Company Updates - Heng Rui Medicine has licensed its SHR6508 project rights in mainland China to Hansoh Pharmaceutical, receiving an upfront payment of 30 million yuan [39][40] - Chipmaker Chipone Technology reported a significant increase in new orders, totaling 2.494 billion yuan, a 129.94% increase compared to the previous year's fourth quarter [42] - Shengyi Technology announced an adjustment to its share repurchase price ceiling to no more than 144.36 yuan per share [43][44] - Jianlin Home has entered into a strategic partnership with Jieka Robotics to enhance its smart home offerings [45][46] Group 5: Regional Economic Developments - In Changsha, the import and export volume maintained growth, with "new three samples" products seeing an export increase of 86.7% [50][52] - The city reported a total import of 2.5944 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of 2025, reflecting a 2.7% year-on-year growth [51]

大家早上壕！ 先看海外要闻： 美股迎小幅调整，道指收跌0.04%、纳指收跌0.09%、标普500收跌0.03%；英伟达收涨1.02%、亚马逊收涨0.06%、特斯拉收跌2.10%、Meta、谷 歌A、苹果、微软至多跌0.64%。 全球多地的数据中心开发商正采用航空发动机衍生的涡轮机和化石燃料发电机进行发电。 白银期货涨超10%，创历史新高逼近80美元关口；现货铂金涨8.84%，刷新历史高位；现货钯金涨12.38%；纽约铜涨5%；周一亚市早盘白银再度 大涨逾5%。 芝商所12月26日发布重大保证金调整通知称，将于12月29日收盘后，全面上调黄金、白银、锂等金属期货品种的履约保证金。 全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1071.13吨，较前一个交易日增加2.86吨。全球最大的白银ETF iShares Silver Trust持仓量为16390.56 吨，较前一个交易日减少56.41吨。 特朗普称俄乌"接近达成协议"，"20点和平计划"已95%谈妥。 国内重大事件汇总： 一周券商策略前瞻： 本周各家券商策略分析师整体依旧保持乐观。 华西策略李立峰团队称，岁末年初多头势力聚集，"春季躁动"行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is experiencing a positive trend as it approaches the end of 2025, with significant movements in various sectors and a focus on potential investment opportunities for 2026 [1][30]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved an "eight consecutive days of gains" [1]. - The total scale of Chinese ETFs has surpassed 6 trillion, setting a new historical high [1]. - Major brokerages have provided insights on market trends, with predictions for 2026 focusing on sectors that may dominate [2][5][13]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Citic Securities highlights that 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with a focus on telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and commercial aerospace as key sectors [3]. - Industry sectors such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and new energy are expected to see increased attention and potential growth due to their long-term return on equity (ROE) improvement [4]. - Guotai Junan emphasizes the importance of capital markets in driving social confidence and investment, marking a shift from traditional investment methods to more capital-intensive approaches [5]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Factors - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi is attributed to a weaker US dollar and seasonal capital inflows, which may support the Chinese stock market [9][30]. - The potential for a significant influx of capital back into China is anticipated, driven by the reversal of previous trends in currency valuation and investment sentiment [9][10]. - The structural transformation of the Chinese economy is expected to reduce uncertainty and enhance investment opportunities, particularly in technology and manufacturing sectors [7][24]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are shifting towards sectors that benefit from the current economic environment, including AI hardware, renewable energy, and consumer services [19][31]. - Brokers suggest focusing on thematic trading opportunities in sectors like robotics, commercial aerospace, and healthcare, which are expected to gain traction in the upcoming year [19][31]. - The market is advised to adopt a cautious approach, emphasizing low-cost entry points and avoiding high-risk positions as the market stabilizes [35][36].

Group 1 - The market's year-end rally is driven by three main expectations: optimistic outlook from institutional investors, completion of overseas AI model adjustments, and high policy expectations following the release of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3][4] - The A-share market has shown positive signals with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing an eight-day winning streak, indicating the start of the year-end rally [3][4][35] - Key sectors to focus on include non-ferrous metals and AI computing power, with commercial aerospace remaining the primary market hotspot, followed by secondary themes such as Hainan Free Trade Zone, controllable nuclear fusion, and humanoid robots [3][4][15] Group 2 - The AI computing power industry is expected to benefit from NVIDIA's Rubin architecture upgrade, positively impacting sectors such as optical fibers, liquid-cooled servers, CPO, and storage chips [3][15][17] - Non-ferrous metals continue to maintain a rising trend, driven by price increases in lithium carbonate, silver, copper, and aluminum, with lithium and aluminum prices rising by 69% and 88% respectively over the past four months [20][34] - The 14th Five-Year Plan has led to heightened market policy expectations, with significant developments in sectors like new energy, new materials, quantum technology, mobile communication, and commercial aerospace [13][22][34] Group 3 - The year-end rally is anticipated to coincide with a seasonal "spring surge," which typically occurs between the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, with historical data showing a high probability of market gains during this period [8][41] - Recent improvements in overseas liquidity and risk appetite are attributed to a shift in the U.S. strategic focus away from China, easing tensions in U.S.-China relations, and ongoing advancements in the AI sector [10][41] - The release of numerous high-quality AI models has bolstered confidence in the AI industry, contributing to a favorable investment environment [11][10]

Group 1: Market Strategy - The market is expected to experience a "spring rally" supported by continuous policy efforts and increased capital inflows, with historical trends indicating such rallies occur almost every year in the A-share market [5] - Economic growth is anticipated to remain within a reasonable range, further solidifying the foundation for the capital market's prosperity [5] - Focus on growth and consumer sectors for industry allocation, with a specific emphasis on the commercial aerospace concept during market dips [5] Group 2: Lithium Industry - Major lithium producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to support lithium prices and improve the supply-demand balance, with carbon lithium inventory decreasing for 19 consecutive weeks [6] - The demand for energy storage is projected to boost expectations for the industry, leading to a favorable supply-demand outlook for 2026 [6] Group 3: Copper Industry - The National Development and Reform Commission has emphasized the need for enhanced management and optimization of the copper smelting industry, which is expected to support copper prices despite a decrease in cable enterprise operating rates [7] - The supply-demand situation for copper remains tight, leading to a positive outlook for copper prices [7] Group 4: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - The oil and petrochemical index saw a 15.1% increase in 2025, with strong stock performance expected from major oil companies and related engineering firms [8] - The coal chemical industry is anticipated to improve profitability due to declining coal prices and accelerated industrial upgrades [8] Group 5: Basic Chemical Industry - The basic chemical industry recorded a 41.4% increase in 2025, ranking fifth among all industries, with expectations for supply-demand optimization and recovery in profitability in 2026 [9] - Strong growth momentum is anticipated in new chemical materials driven by demand from AI, OLED, and robotics [9] Group 6: New Energy and Environmental Protection - Key areas for investment during the current spring rally include AIDC power storage, lithium batteries, and hydrogen ammonia, with significant potential for overseas orders in AIDC power [9] - The supply-side changes in lithium carbonate and the anticipated domestic energy storage tenders in 2026 are expected to enhance price support [9]