来源：寻瑕记 摩尔上市第五天，股价突破940元，总市值突破4400亿。 第一天，大家以为是历史大顶 昨天，大家都以为是对子大顶 今天，大家都后悔没有在第一天冲进去 之前说"一代人有一代人的中石油"，格局太小了，这个估值中石油都消化不了。 你以为的春季躁动：涨业绩，涨基本面，涨核心资产 实际上的春季躁动：炒次新，炒北交，炒超市，炒马年 海王，60岁临退休，你们说啥，耳聋眼花 以前的老登：地产白酒煤炭 现在的老登：易中天寒武纪 卖方老师说，一级的朋友们，永远不要低估二级的接盘能力，寒王走了五年的路，摩尔用一周就走完 了，这就是二级的宿命吗？ 二级的老师接盘一周，已经赚晕了，发行价114.28，盘中最低点556，拉到941，接近翻倍，这就是一级 的馈赠吗？ 不在摩尔县城的人被抽干了流动性，流通盘小，辨识度高，宏大叙事强，这就是科技的力量吗？ 摩尔，18岁的女大，青春洋溢，人见人爱 东芯，30岁的熟女，带刺玫瑰，成熟稳重 寒王，40岁的老登，没事钓鱼，有事躺尸 你感觉整个估值体系都被"千金马骨"撼动了，实则估值体系一直这样，市场永远有今天没明天，喝最烈 的酒，骑最快的马，上最有共识的逻辑，干最猛的票。 在小作文里体验 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the anticipated "spring rally" in the A-share market may start earlier than usual, potentially in mid to late December 2025, due to multiple positive factors converging [1] Group 2 - Three major supportive forces are forming: global liquidity easing, with the Federal Reserve expected to announce a third interest rate cut, enhancing the attractiveness of A-shares as a valuation haven [2] - Domestic policy measures are being implemented, including a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [3] - Risk factors are decreasing as global economic policies become clearer, and domestic capital market reforms deepen, leading to enhanced market stability [4] Group 3 - The current "spring rally" is underpinned by solid industrial foundations, with significant breakthroughs in new productivity sectors such as commercial aerospace and AI, which are expected to drive market growth [5] Group 4 - Three main investment themes are identified for the upcoming rally: 1. The financial sector, particularly brokerages benefiting from increased capital leverage and active market trading [6] 2. The technology growth sector, focusing on areas with strong policy support and rapid industrial progress, such as commercial aerospace and AI infrastructure [7] 3. Cyclical core assets, selecting midstream manufacturing and recovery-related stocks benefiting from consumer demand [7] Group 5 - Key insights from major brokerages include: - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of cost-effectiveness in investment, focusing on aerospace and AI-related sectors [8] - Open Source Securities highlights the long-term advantages of technology and suggests focusing on military and media sectors [9] - Guoxin Securities notes that external pressures on A-shares are easing, with liquidity expectations improving [9] - Other brokerages also predict an early start to the spring rally, driven by positive short-term policies and external events [9]

对于市场热议的春季行情是否已提前启动,广发基金投顾团队认为,从历史规律来看,春季躁动多发生在1- 3月,但今年的市场在12月就表现出较强的动能;并且A股主要指数的涨幅,尤其是创业板,已经显著超过往 年同期水平,在重要政策窗口前呈现了较强"抢跑"特征。 12月以来,A股市场有所回暖。春季躁动是否已提前启动?从近期情况看,确实有不少积极信号,尤其集中在 泛科技方向。广发基金投顾团队认为,近期A股市场受益于消息面、基本面、资金面等多重利好推动,导 致主要指数在重要政策窗口前呈现较强"抢跑"特征。但短期来看,部分热门方向交易拥挤度较高,仍需震 荡消化;而一些拥挤度偏低的方向则缺乏增量资金与基本面催化,新一轮较强行情能否开启还需要持续观 察。 消息面上,科技行业暖风不断。一是行业"反内卷"再推进。11月28日,工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行 业制造业企业座谈会,围绕规范动力和储能电池产业竞争秩序、推动产业高质量发展,听取相关企业情况 介绍及意见建议,释放出政策引导行业健康发展的积极信号。二是锂电供给端出现积极变化。12月5日,国 产锂电龙头的核心矿山枧下窝锂矿短期复产无望,当地锂矿市场已经出现无锂矿石可卖的情形;澳洲部 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a steady recovery in AIDC demand in China, driven by significant capital expenditures from major companies like Alibaba, which reported a 34% year-on-year revenue growth in its cloud segment and an 80.1% increase in capital expenditures [35][38]. - The potential approval of the H200 chip for export to China is expected to further stimulate domestic AI model development and increase demand for domestic AIDC solutions [42][43]. Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a continued trend of moderate export recovery, with November exports increasing by 5.9% year-on-year, a significant rebound from the previous decline of 1.1% [6][7]. - The report notes that while there is a recovery in export figures, the overall trend remains cautious due to high base effects and potential global trade slowdowns [9][10]. Industry Analysis - The telecommunications sector is experiencing a positive shift, with AIDC demand expected to accelerate as companies ramp up investments in AI and cloud infrastructure [35][39]. - The report suggests that the approval of the H200 chip could lead to a resurgence in demand for AI servers and related infrastructure, benefiting various segments within the AIDC ecosystem [42][43]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the AIDC space include companies like Huazhong Technology, Aofei Data, and Guanghuan New Network, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in AIDC demand [40][44]. - The report also identifies potential beneficiaries in the cooling and power supply sectors related to AIDC, suggesting a broad investment opportunity across the supply chain [40][44]. Institutional Research Trends - Recent institutional research has shown increased interest in sectors such as home appliances, building materials, and computing, indicating a shift in market focus [24][25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of institutional research as a critical component of investment decision-making, providing timely and multidimensional insights into industry dynamics [24].

一是经济调控模式转型弱化了政策的季节性特征。 过去经济高度依赖地产与基建驱动，而流动性投放也往往 集中在一季度，形成"宽信用"窗口、催化春季行情启动。地产与基建行业规模大、链条长、带动广，对经济景 气具有"广谱性"拉动作用，其中居民购房作为重要的信用派生载体，一度成为一季度信贷"开门红"投放的重要 着力点。早年间信贷与财政额度的集中投放，往往会在年初提振市场信心，叠加3月全国两会前的政策预期升 温，市场通常在1-2月启动春季行情。近年来随着传统增长引擎刺激效力减弱，年初投放的实质性拉动有限， 因此季节性的"宽信用-宽预期"逻辑正在淡化。 二是资金博弈下，"学习效应"促使行情前置。 随着市场参与者 对春季行情规律的认知深化，部分资金提前布局以占据先机。这种"抢跑"行为导致市场预期在节前被快速定 价，节后利好逐步兑现，行情结束时点亦相应前移。 政策预期也是被认为是触发春季躁动最核心且高频的驱动力。华创证券的报告中提到，2010年以来的16次春季 躁动行情中，政策预期驱动占据主导地位，共出现9次，足见在经济数据真空、企业盈利尚未验证的背景下， 市场对于宏观政策信号高度敏感。政治局会议和中央经济工作会议召开在即，这两 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the most distressed investors this year are those in A-share brokerage firms, despite the overall market conditions being relatively stable and the brokerage firms' performance being acceptable [1][3] - The recent speech by the regulatory authority emphasized the need for differentiated supervision, which will benefit high-quality institutions by optimizing risk control indicators and enhancing capital utilization efficiency [3][4] - The average leverage ratio for 43 listed brokerages is 3.47 times, while top institutions approach 5 times, indicating significant room for leverage expansion compared to international investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which exceed 10 times [3][4] Group 2 - The current performance of domestic brokerages is heavily reliant on brokerage-related businesses, which are closely tied to stock market trading volumes [5][6] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is projected to decline, which may lead to moderate performance for brokerages in the upcoming quarters, although there is potential for growth if market conditions improve [6][8] - Current valuation levels for brokerages are low, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios below opportunity levels and price-to-book (PB) ratios around opportunity levels, suggesting that future growth is already reflected in the current prices [8][12] Group 3 - The market is awaiting two key events: the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, which is likely to result in a rate cut, and the detailed outcomes of the Central Economic Work Conference, which may provide further guidance [13] - Historical trends suggest that poor year-end market conditions often lead to a higher probability of a spring market rally in the following quarter [13] - The positioning of non-bank financials and potential leading sectors for the spring rally, as well as the future of traditional consumer sectors like liquor, are under consideration [13]

格隆汇交易学苑 . 以基本面为基础，专注于趋势交易 今天白酒又新低了，但要说今年最苦的投资人，我觉得不是白酒为代表的老消费投资人。为什么呢？ 以下文章来源于格隆汇交易学苑 ，作者格隆汇小编 因为白酒会不行，是可以预期到的，但凡不要一根筋坚持所谓的价投，仔细想下当下环境，再看下茅台的批价走 势，就可以知道白酒的基本面后面几个季度还要大幅下滑，考虑中期因素，这种下滑不是短暂下滑，后面利润即 使能回来，也是很多年以后的事了（现在看着10几倍估值，但利润砍半，就变成3、40倍了）。所以白酒今年行 情好才是意外，行情差是情理之中。 今年最苦的投资人是A股券商投资人，今年的成交额也过得去，券商的业绩也过得去，又是牛市氛围，结果券商， 就这？每次发颗糖，还没来得及细品它的甜，一巴掌就打过来了。 这不，这周又是如此。周末村长讲了许多，结果周一券商还是大幅回落了，今天券商再次集体下跌，平均跌幅1个 多点。券商投资人再次后悔没有听祖训——券商高开就要跑，这已经不记得是第多少次了。 每次都上当，当当都一样，这是最苦的。 01 从村长的讲话谈起 周末那个致辞，最重要的信息是证监会将着力强化分类监管，扶优限劣，体现在对优质机构适当"松 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on December 9, with the national index of free cash flow experiencing fluctuations and a decline of approximately 1.3%, while stocks like Weichai Heavy Machinery, China Power, and Chufeng Power led the gains [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) has seen continuous net inflows over the past 22 days, totaling 2.236 billion yuan, reaching a new high of 7.824 billion yuan since its inception [1] - Since mid-November, the A-share market has shown a trend of shrinking fluctuations, with total market turnover oscillating between 1.5 trillion yuan and 1.9 trillion yuan, and recently surpassing 2 trillion yuan again after 16 trading days [1] Group 2 - Huafu Securities' research report suggests that the "spring excitement" may start early with the year-end market rally, indicating a potential buying opportunity if a "double bottom" pattern emerges [1] - The free cash flow ETF (159201) and its linked funds (A: 023917; C: 023918) closely track the national index of free cash flow, addressing the shortcomings of traditional dividend strategies by focusing on internal growth capabilities and emphasizing financial health and sustainability [1] - The fund management fee is set at an annual rate of 0.15%, and the custody fee at 0.05%, both of which are the lowest in the market, maximizing benefits for investors [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In the US, November PMI shows weak manufacturing but strong services, indicating overall stable growth [1] - The market is fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in December, with expectations of a signal to pause further cuts afterward [1] - Japan's central bank is expected to raise interest rates, leading to an increase in bond yields and greater asset volatility [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - China's November manufacturing PMI shows a marginal recovery but remains seasonally weak, while the services PMI has declined again [1] - Supply and demand indicators have shown marginal improvement, and price indicators have also recovered, reflecting that the foundation for domestic demand recovery still needs further consolidation [1] - There is a noticeable increase in expectations for stable real estate policies, which could further support demand and expectations if implemented [1] Group 3: Market Strategy - In the bond market, there was a loosening of liquidity across months, with reports indicating the central bank's strategy of "short-term collection and long-term release," leading to weak sentiment in the bond market [1] - The overnight funding price fell below 1.3%, suggesting that the central bank's strategy is aimed at preventing fund turnover and reducing bank liability costs, rather than tightening monetary policy [1] - The fundamental and liquidity conditions remain favorable for the bond market, but the lack of bullish momentum may keep interest rates in a fluctuating pattern [1] Group 4: A-share Market - The A-share market has been fluctuating without clear policy guidance, with trading volume continuing to decline [2] - There is a slight reversal in style, with a rebound in the previously corrected technology growth sector [2] - Looking ahead to December, the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and FOMC meeting are expected to provide clearer market direction [2] Group 5: Hong Kong Market and Commodities - Following the December FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in rate cuts, which could temporarily hinder capital inflow into the Hong Kong market [3] - In the oil market, initial rate cuts may not boost demand, as supply continues to be released and inventories accumulate, keeping prices under pressure [3] Group 6: Gold Market - The potential pause in rate cuts after the December FOMC meeting may cause short-term disturbances in gold prices, but the long-term development trend remains positive [3]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a possible interest rate hike in December, causing a rise in Japanese bond yields and concerns over the reversal of carry trades, leading to adjustments in global markets [1][5] - The U.S. "small non-farm" payrolls report showed a surprising decline of 32,000 jobs in November, far below the expected increase of 10,000, which heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][5] - As of December 6, the market is pricing in an 86.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1][5] Group 2 - In China, the manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded in November but remained below the expansion threshold, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.2% (up 0.2 percentage points month-on-month) and the non-manufacturing PMI at 49.5% (down 0.6 percentage points month-on-month) [1][6] - The production index and new orders index for November were 50.0% (up 0.3 percentage points month-on-month) and 49.2% (up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month), respectively, indicating improvements in both production and demand [6] - The high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing PMIs showed varying degrees of decline, while the PMI for high-energy-consuming industries rebounded from low levels [6] Group 3 - Despite a cautious market sentiment ahead of significant macroeconomic events in mid-December, the A-share market experienced a slight increase, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and adjustments in insurance company risk factors [2][6] - Global commodity markets continued to rise, with non-ferrous metals leading the gains [2][6] - The overall news sentiment was positive, with potential measures to expand broker capital and adjust insurance company investment risk factors expected to bring considerable incremental funds to the market [2][6] Group 4 - From a mid-term perspective, the upward trend of the index remains intact, with the possibility of an early spring rally starting in January or February due to the short interval between the Lunar New Year and the National People's Congress [2][6] - Investment recommendations include focusing on three areas: high-dividend assets such as banks and coal, growth sectors like computing and electricity with mid-term fundamentals, and flexible opportunities in themes like commercial aerospace and robotics [2][7]