Group 1 - The trade agreement between the US and EU has been finalized, potentially avoiding a global economic downturn due to a trade war [1][3] - The agreement sets a 15% tariff on most EU exports, including automobiles, but there are discrepancies in statements from both sides regarding the inclusion of pharmaceuticals and metals [3][4] - The EU has reportedly agreed to invest significantly in the US, which may have influenced the terms of the agreement, particularly concerning pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [3] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the specifics of the tariff implementation may lead to volatility in related sectors, such as metal trading and pharmaceutical exports, as companies await final details [3][4] - The overall direction of the agreement is seen as positive for global supply chains, despite the need to address lingering details and disputes [3][4] - Continuous monitoring of subsequent developments in the trade agreement is essential for long-term investment strategies [4]

从经济基本面来看，欧元区近期的数据已显露出企稳迹象。制造业 PMI 的边际改善、服务业的持续扩 张以及劳动力市场的相对稳定，共同构成了经济韧性的现实基础。在连续八次降息后，货币政策对经济 的刺激效果逐渐显现，此时暂停降息既是对前期政策效果的观察，也是避免过度宽松引发副作用的理性 选择。 不过，市场对于贸易谈判的乐观预期仍存在不确定性。15% 的关税水平虽较全面贸易战的情景更为温 和，但相较于此前的贸易条件仍属加税，长期来看仍会对部分行业造成压力。因此，欧洲央行的 "观 就在欧洲央行宣布政策的次日，高盛与摩根大通的研究报告相继出炉。高盛明确表示，不再预计欧洲央 行会在今年内实施降息；摩根大通则将此前预测的 9 月降息时间点推迟至 10 月。两家机构的调整方向 高度一致，反映出金融市场对欧元区货币政策宽松预期的显著降温。 欧洲央行行长拉加德在周四的新闻发布会上的表态，成为机构调整预期的重要参考。"我们正处于这种 观望等待的状况，" 她明确指出，同时补充说明当前经济处于 "良好的位置"。这一表述打破了市场此前 对持续宽松的惯性预期，凸显出欧洲央行对经济韧性的认可。 高盛的分析师在报告中解读道，拉加德的评论传递出清晰 ...

据韩联社：韩国在贸易谈判中向美国提出了数十亿美元的造船项目。 ...

Group 1 - The gold market experienced significant volatility this week, with prices ultimately closing lower after failing to stabilize above $3,400 per ounce following a bullish breakout. This reflects recent hesitation among gold bulls [1] - In the first two trading days of the week, spot gold prices surged by 2.4%, but the subsequent three days saw a cumulative decline of nearly 3%. This decline was primarily driven by positive developments in Trump’s trade negotiations, which boosted market risk appetite and diminished gold's safe-haven demand [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to next week, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its monetary policy decision after the July 29-30 meeting. The market perceives a negligible chance of a rate cut in July, with a 40% likelihood of maintaining rates in September, an increase from about 10% a month ago [3] - If Powell opens the door for a September rate cut citing reduced uncertainty from recent trade agreements, U.S. Treasury yields may drop, potentially allowing gold prices to rise. Conversely, if he avoids committing to a rate cut due to rising inflation data, gold prices may decline [3] Group 3 - The outlook for gold next week appears bearish, with prices unexpectedly continuing to decline on Friday, touching the previously mentioned 4-hour trend line at $3,335 before weakening further. The current trend is viewed as bearish without any signs of rebound [5] - The hourly chart shows a clear rotation between bullish and bearish trends, with the first three days exhibiting an upward trend channel, followed by a direct retraction that established a new downward channel. The $3,350 level is identified as a key point for continued bearish sentiment next week [6] Group 4 - A trading strategy suggests shorting near $3,350, with a stop-loss at $3,360 and a target of $3,325, with further downside potential to $3,310 if the price breaks below these levels [8]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose for five consecutive days, increasing by 1.46% during the week ending July 25, 2025[10] - The Nikkei 225 index surged by 4.1% due to trade agreement progress between the US and Japan[10] - The Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices increased by 1.26% and 1.02%, respectively, during the same period[10] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims fell to 217,000, marking a decline for the sixth consecutive week, against an expected 226,000[4] - The probability of a US recession by 2025 is estimated at 17%, down from 18% the previous week[39] - The market anticipates a 64.5% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July or September, up from 52.9% a week prior[28] Commodity Prices - Gold and silver prices decreased by 0.61% and 0.55%, respectively, while WTI crude oil fell by 3.31%[11] - The market expects an increase in Venezuelan oil exports following the easing of sanctions, contributing to the decline in oil prices[10] Trade Agreements - The US reached a trade agreement with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff and a $550 billion investment from Japan[33] - The Philippines will impose a 19% tariff on US goods while opening its market to zero tariffs for US products[33] - Ongoing trade negotiations with the EU could lead to a counter-tariff on $93 billion worth of US goods if talks fail[33]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views & Investment Suggestions - The third round of China-US trade negotiations will be held in Sweden, and the market should closely monitor the progress of these talks. The negotiations aim to postpone the scheduled tariff increase deadline of August 12, reflecting a pragmatic willingness from both sides to manage differences. The advancement of core tariff issues is a key support for current market sentiment, and a cautiously optimistic outlook is maintained for the prospects of a phased agreement [2][24]. - In July, 134 game licenses were issued, including 127 domestic games and 7 imported games, such as NetEase's "Diablo IV." The normalization of license issuance continues to support the healthy development of the industry, with major companies introducing significant IPs alongside original high-quality products, optimizing the supply structure and further releasing market vitality [2][24]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In the week of July 21-25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.69%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.76%. The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.86%, and the Hang Seng Internet Index increased by 2.27%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 0.41 percentage points. The SW Media Index rose by 2.15%, lagging behind the ChiNext Index by 0.61 percentage points, ranking 18th among 31 industries [1][11]. Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office for the week were "The Lychee of Chang'an" with a box office of 170.914 million yuan (25.6% market share), "Nanjing Photo Studio" with 152.25 million yuan (22.8%), and "The Legend of Lu Xiaobei 2" with 94.343 million yuan (14.2%) [27][28]. Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by sales were "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Love and Deep Space." The top three Android games by popularity were "Heart Town," "My Leisure Time," and "Staff Sword Legend" [30][31]. TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index were "Drug Storm," "Morning Snow," and "Cherry Amber," with indices of 83.5, 82.9, and 80.8 respectively [33][34]. Variety Shows and Animation - The top variety show was "Running Man Season 9," followed by "Comedy King Stand-up Season 2" and "Talk Show and His Friends Season 2." The top three animated shows by viewership index were "Cang Yuan Tu," "Happy Hammer," and "Cloud Deep Not Knowing Dream" [34][36].

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices have risen slightly, driven by optimistic sentiment regarding trade negotiations, overshadowing expectations of increased supply from Venezuela [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Analysts from ING indicate that negotiations with the EU appear to be progressing in the right direction, which should help reduce uncertainty and alleviate ongoing demand concerns in the oil market [1] Group 2: Venezuelan Oil Supply - President Trump has approved Chevron (CVX.N) to resume oil extraction operations in Venezuela, which is expected to increase the country's oil export volume by over 200,000 barrels per day [1] - This increase in Venezuelan oil exports may help ease some supply tightness in the heavy crude oil market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has no compelling reason to lower interest rates further unless the economy faces significant setbacks, as stated by Martins Kazaks, a member of the ECB Governing Council [1][2]. Interest Rate Policy - Kazaks emphasized that maintaining the current interest rate is sensible, indicating that the era of impulsive rate changes is over [1]. - The current deposit rate is at 2%, which is seen as neutral, neither suppressing nor stimulating economic activity [3]. Economic Outlook - Kazaks noted that there is still substantial monetary easing yet to impact the economy, following a year of significant rate cuts [2]. - The ECB's recent decision to keep borrowing costs unchanged reflects a cautious approach while awaiting clarity on U.S. trade negotiations [1]. Trade and Currency Considerations - Kazaks plans to monitor trade negotiations, service sector inflation, manufacturing recovery, and exchange rate issues closely [4]. - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns about export prices and import costs [4]. - Kazaks warned that if the euro rises above 1.20 against the dollar, it could complicate the economic situation, potentially prompting the ECB to consider rate cuts again [4]. Future Actions - Kazaks advised patience in assessing the outcomes of trade agreements before making policy decisions, highlighting the need to avoid actions based on speculation [4]. - He mentioned that resolving trade disputes could enhance confidence, supporting investment and consumption, thereby mitigating negative impacts from tariffs [4].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the US stock market has recently performed strongly, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices frequently reaching historical highs, driven by positive trade negotiations and increased capital expenditures from AI technology leaders [5][6] - As of July 24, the S&P 500 index has risen by 1.3% and the Nasdaq 100 index by 1.7% over the past ten trading days, with the technology and internet sectors leading the performance [5][6] Trade Negotiations - The US has reached trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, and a significant agreement with Japan, which includes reducing tariffs on Japanese goods from 25% to 15% [5][8] - The market is optimistic about the potential for further trade agreements with the EU before the August 1 deadline, which has increased risk appetite among investors [9] Earnings Performance - The earnings season has shown resilience, with over half of the 162 S&P 500 companies reporting results that exceeded market expectations; 84.6% of companies reported net profits above Wall Street's forecasts [11] - Google’s parent company, Alphabet, reported strong second-quarter results, with revenue and EPS surpassing expectations, and announced a significant increase in capital expenditures to $85 billion for 2025, up from an earlier estimate of $75 billion [11][14] Market Outlook - The report suggests a short-term upward trend for the US stock market, particularly in AI technology sectors, as companies maintain resilience despite potential inflationary pressures and the impact of tariffs [15] - If the effects of tariffs are limited, the Federal Reserve may consider further interest rate cuts, providing additional support for the stock market [15]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3359.85 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.24% [1] - The highest price reached was $3373.25 per ounce, while the lowest was $3357.70 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend for gold [1] - Gold prices have been suppressed below the $3400 mark for two consecutive trading days, with buyers entering around $3350 [5] Group 2 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.416%, contributing to an increase in the real yield, which reached 2.046% [3] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened, closing up 0.28% at 97.48 [3] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain key interest rates, indicating a high threshold for any potential rate cuts in September [3] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, with a 96% probability for no change [3] - Gold prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, with potential resistance at $3400 and targets at $3438 and $3452 [5] - A drop below $3350 could challenge the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, located at $3347 and $3341 respectively [5]