Group 1 - Iran's Supreme Leader's advisor stated that Iran is willing to commit to never developing nuclear weapons in exchange for the U.S. lifting sanctions, leading to a drop of over 3% in oil prices [1] - WTI crude oil fell over 3% to $60.60 per barrel, while Brent crude oil also dropped over 3% to $63.97 per barrel [2] - The geopolitical situation is easing, and high U.S. Treasury yields are pressuring commodities, causing gold, silver, copper, and oil to decline [5] Group 2 - European stock indices opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.5%, Germany's DAX down 0.4%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.5% [9] - The Indian stock market maintained its upward trend after President Trump mentioned India's proposal to eliminate tariffs on U.S. goods [9] - The Japanese opposition party suggested using long-term U.S. Treasury holdings and importing U.S.-made Japanese cars as negotiation leverage in trade talks with Washington [12]

金十数据5月15日讯，在美国零售销售和PPI等数据公布前，美债收益率在欧洲早盘交易中企稳。 Pepperstone资深研究策略师迈克尔·布朗表示，由于美联储仍在评估关税的影响，这些数据可能不会过 度影响市场。"尽管今天将有大量美国数据等待公布，但坦率地说，很难说这些数据有什么特别重要， 因为美联储正坚定地处于观望模式。"此外，市场参与者的心态是"好消息就是好消息，坏消息是可以忽 略的"。2年期美债收益率目前持平于4.047%，10年期收益率也持平于4.530%。 美债收益率在今晚重磅数据出炉前持稳 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-05-15 美国贸易谈判或有新进展 贵金属震荡走弱 市场要闻与重要数据 据外媒讯，美国与日本、韩国、印度的贸易关税协议"接近达成"。并称美国在关税谈判中不寻求美元贬值。另 外，特朗普在卡塔尔达成1.2万亿美元经济承诺。美国与卡塔尔签署超2435亿美元经济及军事合作协议。此外，欧 洲央行要求区内银行评估压力情况下美元短缺风险，因担忧特朗普执政下无法依赖美联储。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-05-14，沪金主力合约开于 764.00元/克，收于 761.72元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.78%。当日成交量为 497536手，持仓量为 214778手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 750.00 元/克，收于 748.68 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 下降2.04%。 2025-05-14，沪银主力合约开于 8186元/千克，收于 8195元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 616045手，持仓量 280768手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,090 元/千克，收于 8,085 元/千克，较昨日午后收盘 下降1.40%。 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-05-14， ...

Group 1 - Investors are assessing the US economic conditions under moderate inflation and recent trade agreements, leading to a slight increase in US Treasury prices and a decline in yields [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.6 basis points to 4.011%, the 10-year yield fell by 2.4 basis points to 4.475%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 2.5 basis points to 4.918% [1] - Mortgage demand in the US has risen for the second consecutive week, indicating that potential buyers are attracted by the increased supply of homes for sale [3] Group 2 - The average contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage increased from 6.84% to 6.86%, which is 22 basis points higher than the same period last year [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose by 2.3% year-on-year, which is below economists' expectations of 2.4% and reflects the lowest level since February 2021 [3] - Housing costs were the main driver of inflation in April, despite a decrease in gasoline prices [3] Group 3 - Economists are looking for early signs of tariffs affecting US households, as tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices [4] - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation data is still not fully reflected and may become apparent by June [4] - The UK central bank's chief economist expressed concerns that inflation in the UK may be stronger than expected, potentially requiring higher interest rates than investors anticipate [5] Group 4 - The US Treasury is set to issue a $60 billion 17-week short-term debt on May 14, with additional bonds totaling $160 billion to be issued on May 15 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of cross-border ETFs has led to significant price increases across various funds, driven by positive market sentiment following favorable inflation data and a temporary trade truce between the US and China [1][5][10]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Southern Fund's Saudi ETF, Invesco's Nasdaq Tech ETF, and Invesco's S&P Consumer ETF saw increases of 5.57%, 3.64%, and 3.4% respectively, with latest premium/discount rates at 8.99%, 3.72%, and 29.09% [1][3]. - The S&P Oil & Gas ETFs from Franklin Templeton and Harvest Fund increased by 3.19% and 2.99% respectively, reflecting a broader rise in oil prices [1][3]. - The Nasdaq index rose for the second consecutive day, with Franklin Templeton's Nasdaq ETF and Cathay Fund's Nasdaq ETF increasing by 2.7% and 2.63% respectively [1][3]. Group 2: Market Context - Global stock markets continued to rise, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices gaining 0.72% and 1.61% respectively, attributed to lower-than-expected inflation data and improved investor sentiment following the US-China trade truce [5][6]. - The S&P 500 index has recovered its losses for the year, now up 0.1%, after a significant drop earlier due to escalating trade tensions [5][6]. - The recent signing of a $142 billion arms deal between the US and Saudi Arabia, along with Nvidia's commitment to supply advanced AI chips, has further bolstered market optimism [6][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index rose by 2.3% year-on-year in April, below the expected 2.4%, marking the lowest level since February 2021 [10]. - Despite the favorable inflation data, the 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 2.4 basis points to 4.481%, indicating a complex market reaction [10]. - Market analysts suggest that the upcoming month may see fluctuations in the S&P 500 index between 5500 and 5800 points, supported by corporate buybacks and trade agreements [10].

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.64% at 42140.43 points, the S&P 500 up 0.72% at 5886.55 points, and the Nasdaq up 1.61% at 19010.08 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Nvidia up 5.63%, Tesla up 4.93%, Meta up 2.60%, Amazon up 1.31%, Apple up 1.02%, and Alphabet up 0.82%, while Microsoft fell 0.03% [1] - Some Chinese concept stocks performed well, with Yatsen E-commerce up 9.93%, Shengda Technology up 8.12%, Daqo New Energy up 7.35%, Tuya Smart up 5.64%, JD Group up 3.33%, and Tencent Music up 2.58% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed steady, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 both up 0.3%, while the UK's FTSE 100 slightly declined, and the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.1% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.82% at $3254.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.43% at $33.09 per ounce [1] - International oil prices surged, with the main US oil contract up 2.71% at $63.63 per barrel and the main Brent crude contract up 2.43% at $66.54 per barrel [1] - London base metals rose across the board, with LME zinc up 1.93% at $2720.50 per ton, LME lead up 1.40% at $1993.00 per ton, LME copper up 1.29% at $9624.50 per ton, LME nickel up 1.25% at $15745.00 per ton, LME aluminum up 0.95% at $2493.50 per ton, and LME tin up 0.69% at $32650.00 per ton [1] Bond Market - US Treasury yields generally fell, with the 2-year yield down 1.23 basis points at 3.996%, the 3-year yield down 2.24 basis points at 3.984%, the 5-year yield down 1.75 basis points at 4.094%, the 10-year yield down 0.59 basis points at 4.465%, and the 30-year yield down 0.1 basis points at 4.905% [1] - European bond yields rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 2.7 basis points at 4.667%, France's 10-year yield up 2.7 basis points at 3.351%, Germany's 10-year yield up 3.1 basis points at 2.677%, Italy's 10-year yield up 2.2 basis points at 3.696%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 2.5 basis points at 3.295% [1]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2.37 basis points, reaching 4.4946% at the end of trading on Tuesday, May 13 [1] - The U.S. CPI inflation data caused the yield to drop to a daily low of 4.4197% before fluctuating upwards [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 0.87 basis points, closing at 4.0190%, after hitting a daily low of 3.9519% and subsequently recovering to 4.0253% [1]

美国国债回吐涨幅，美债收益率达到日内高点。 ...

操作评级 贵金属 女女女 普金属日报 2025年05月13日 刘冬博 高级分析师 F3062795 Z0015311 吴江 高级分析师 F3085524 Z0016394 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜贵金属延续回落。近期贸易谈判和地缘纷争交织,昨日中美发布联合声明降低对等关税,市场反应强 烈,情绪切换令金价回吐前期风险溢价。国际金价下跌已接近10%，关注3200美元处支撑有效性。上周美联 储会议鲍威尔室申需等待更多经济数据指导决策,今晚关注美国CPI数据。 市场对于黄金下跌的解释: 1. 贸易硝烟散去削弱避险价值 黄金作为"乱世英雄"的特性正在经受考验。上个月当特朗普政府突然宣布全面加征关税时,金价曾单周暴涨 8%触及3500美元历史高位。如今随着贸易战火药味淡化,BullionVault研究主管Adrian Ash指出:"市场对 白宫反复无常政策的过度反应,反而成为金价回调的伏笔。" 2. 美元王者归来压制金价 美元指数同日暴涨1.5%突破101关口,创下近两个月新高至101.97。这形成了对黄金的双重打击:一方面美 元计价使黄金对海外买家更昂贵, ...

Group 1 - US Treasury bonds rose ahead of the inflation data release, reversing the sharp decline following the US-China trade consensus, which reduced the likelihood of a global economic recession and diminished market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - The two-year Treasury yield fell three basis points to 3.98%, outperforming European counterparts, while the ten-year yield traded at 4.45%, significantly higher than the month's low of 4.12% [2] - Economists predict that the US April CPI year-on-year growth will remain at 2.4%, with core CPI growth expected to hold steady at 2.8% [1][2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in December rather than July, with the probability of a recession reduced to 35% from 45% [2] - Deutsche Bank economists estimate that the final tax plan could keep the US deficit as a percentage of GDP around 6.5% in the coming years [3] - Market participants are uncertain about the feasibility of extending the 2017 tax cuts without exacerbating the US deficit, with discussions set to begin in the House of Representatives [3]