Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious and optimistic stance on the short - term rise of gold [6] Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the gold market from multiple aspects including price trends, inflation, interest rates, supply - demand, and the US economy. It concludes that while the gold market has an upward impetus due to the ongoing Israel - Iran conflict and the continuous presence of its hedging property, factors such as the continuous decline of US inflation, the delay of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the stabilization of the US dollar index suppress the rise of gold. Overall, the long - term upward view of gold remains unchanged [4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends - Since 2025, the cumulative increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes have been 28.44% and 26.07% respectively, and last week they decreased by 1.83% and 1.99% respectively [4][16] 2. Inflation - In June 2022, the CPI data reached a new high of 9.1% and then declined moderately. The PCE also peaked and declined in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since February 2024, the CPI rebounded for the first time, and the decline rate of core inflation slowed down or even rebounded. In May 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.5%, and the previous value was 2.3%. The core CPI was 2.8% year - on - year, with an expected 2.9% and a previous value of 2.8%. In April 2025, the core PCE price index increased by 2.5% year - on - year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous revised value of 2.7%. The PCE price index increased by 2.1% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.2% and the previous value of 2.3% [4][19] 3. Interest Rates - From mid - to late October 2023, the interest rate of US medium - term treasury bonds fluctuated downward until January 2025. Since February 2024, the US treasury bond interest rate has fluctuated and rebounded, then fluctuated and declined near last year's high, and recently fluctuated widely near the 2024 low [4][22] 4. Supply - Demand - When the gold supply - demand is in a tight balance, it is conducive to the rise of the gold price, but when it is in a weak balance, it has little impact on the gold price. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand looseness decreased, mainly due to a large increase in investment demand. In 2024, the domestic gold supply increased slightly year - on - year, and the demand decreased significantly year - on - year, but the domestic gold supply - demand was still in a tight balance, mainly due to a large increase in gold bars and coins. In the first quarter of 2025, investment demand increased significantly [4][34] 5. US Economy - In May 2025, the number of new jobs in the US was 139,000, higher than the market expectation of 130,000. The data from January to April was revised downward. In May 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.4% compared with the previous value of 0.3%, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The non - farm employment data in May 2025 continued to be better than expected. The US GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 2.06% year - on - year, a decrease of 0.47%. The ISM manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 48.5, declining for four consecutive months, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.9, dropping significantly again, perhaps affected by reciprocal tariffs [4][30] 6. Strategy and Outlook - The gold futures main contract continued its weak adjustment last Friday. The Israel - Iran conflict remained moderate. As long as the conflict persists, the hedging property of gold remains. Therefore, the report maintains a cautious and optimistic stance on the short - term rise of gold, and investors should pay attention to the pressure at the previous high. However, the continuous decline of US inflation, the delay of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the stabilization of the US dollar index suppress the rise of gold. The current main contradiction in the gold market is the hedging function of gold. The long - term upward view of gold remains unchanged. Technically, the support level for Shanghai Gold is 775 - 780 yuan. It is recommended to hold existing long positions for observation, and those with empty positions are advised to go long. For options, it is recommended to mainly buy call options [6] 7. Central Bank Gold Transactions - In the first quarter of 2025, the global central bank's gold purchase volume decreased compared with the fourth quarter of last year but still had a net purchase of 243.67 tons. From November 2022 to April 2024, the People's Bank of China continuously purchased gold. After six consecutive months without gold purchases, it continuously purchased gold from November 2024 to April 2025, with a total purchase of 44.16 tons since 2024. In 2023, it purchased 224.88 tons. In the first quarter of 2025, the central bank purchased 12.75 tons, 2.18 tons in April, and 1.87 tons in May [37] 8. ETF Demand - In 2023, the gold holding of ETFs decreased by 113.69 tons. In 2024, it decreased by 28.46 tons. As of June 20, last week, the gold ETFs significantly increased their holdings by 11.74 tons, and the gold holding in 2025 increased by 116.04 tons [40] 9. Exchange Rates and Dollar Index - The report does not provide specific analysis conclusions on exchange rates and the dollar index, only presenting relevant data charts 10. Gold Price Spread and Ratio - Last week, the spread between the domestic and foreign gold markets was at a normal level. The report also presented charts of the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio but did not provide specific analysis conclusions [62]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 对等关税落地已有数月，但美国通胀表现却持续弱于预期，与联储6月FOMC例会释放的 "鹰派"信息形成 反差。为何关税未能推升通胀、下半年美国通胀会否"卷土重来"？ 热点思考：美国通胀何时"卷土重来"？ 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 一、回顾：上半年美国通胀表现为何较弱？油价回落、服务通胀降温、关税传导尚不显著 在关税冲击下，美国市场、消费者通胀预期及进口价格上行，但CPI表现较弱。 密歇根大学1年通胀预期 一度飙升至6.6%，4月11日以来10Y美债隐含通胀预期上行13BP，进口价格指数也在4月、5月明显上涨。 但是，美国近几个月通胀却持续不及预期，5月CPI环比仅0.1%。 结构来看，上半年美国通胀的拖累主要来自于能源、核心服务、核心商品。 1）1-5月油价走弱拖累整体 通胀，但6月以来油价大幅反弹；2）美国房租、超级核心服务通胀均稳定降温，可持续性较强；3）关税 对于美国商品通胀已经产生推升效果，但幅度不及市场预期。 二、解构：关税的通胀效应为何低于预期？征收滞后、抢进口、贸易转移、企业吸收成本冲击 关税实际征收进度较慢，是美国通胀尚未明显上升的原因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that U.S. inflation may enter an upward trend in the second half of the year, with a potential decline resuming in 2026. The inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to materialize eventually [1][4]. Group 1: Current Inflation Trends - U.S. inflation has been weaker than expected in the first half of the year, influenced by falling oil prices, cooling service inflation, and insufficient transmission of tariffs [1][2]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed only a 0.1% month-on-month increase in May, despite rising expectations for inflation [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Tariff Impact - The slow implementation of tariffs is a key reason for the lack of significant inflation increase in the U.S. The actual tariff rates remain below theoretical levels due to delays in the tariff collection process [3]. - U.S. companies have been able to delay price increases for up to three months due to excess imports and stable inventory levels, which has further muted the impact of tariffs on inflation [3]. - Approximately 75% of U.S. companies are willing to pass on tariff costs to consumers, with the current impact on retail profit margins estimated at 2.5 percentage points [3]. Group 3: Future Inflation Outlook - The report suggests that U.S. inflation may rise in the second half of the year, driven by factors such as potential dollar depreciation, tariff escalations, and rising oil prices [4]. - Conversely, if the U.S. economy weakens more than expected in the second half, inflation may perform weaker than anticipated, leading to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [4].

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 对等关税落地已有数月，但美国通胀表现却持续弱于预期，与联储6月FOMC例会释放的 "鹰派"信息形成 反差。为何关税未能推升通胀、下半年美国通胀会否"卷土重来"？ 大类资产&海外事件&数据：美债拍卖强于预期，5月美国零售弱于预期 发达市场多数下跌，美元指数小幅反弹。 当周，标普500下跌0.2%，日经225上涨1.5%；10Y美债实际收 益率下行至2.1%；美元指数上涨0.6%至98.76，人民币兑美元持平前值；WTI原油上涨1.2%至73.8美元/ 桶，COMEX黄金下跌2.0%至3363.2美元/盎司。 美国财政部公布4月国际资本流动报告。 4月海外持有美国国债规模下降360亿美元至9.01万亿美元，其中 海外官方下降40亿美元，海外私人机构下降320亿美元。日本4月持有美债环比增长40亿美元，为连续第 四个月增加；英国环比增长284亿美元，为美债第二大持有国。 美国5月零售弱于市场预期，日央行放缓缩表。 5月美国零售销售弱于市场预期，环比-0.9%，市场预 期-0.6%，但零售控制组表现仍不弱。美国5月新屋开工环比-9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected weak performance of US inflation despite the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, questioning why tariffs have not led to higher inflation and whether inflation will rebound in the second half of the year [2][6]. Group 1: Review of US Inflation Performance - In the first half of the year, US inflation was weaker than expected due to falling oil prices, cooling service inflation, and limited transmission of tariffs [2][6]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a mere 0.1% month-on-month increase in May, below the market expectation of 0.2% [6]. - Key factors contributing to the weak inflation included a decline in energy prices, stable rental and core service inflation, and a less-than-expected impact of tariffs on goods inflation [14][20][26]. Group 2: Analysis of Tariff Effects on Inflation - The slow actual collection of tariffs is a significant reason for the lack of noticeable inflation increase in the US [33]. - The effective tariff rate remains below theoretical levels due to delays in tariff collection processes, with actual tariff revenue reaching $15.6 billion in April against $276 billion in imports [33][34]. - Companies have been able to delay price increases for up to three months due to excess imports and stable inventory levels, which has further muted the impact of tariffs on inflation [39][40]. Group 3: Future Trends in US Inflation - The article suggests that while the effects of tariffs on inflation may be delayed, they are expected to manifest in the second half of the year, potentially leading to an upward trend in inflation [57]. - Evidence indicates that retail prices have begun to accelerate since June, and various manufacturing price indices suggest increasing inflationary pressures [57][64]. - Bloomberg consensus forecasts predict that the peak of US CPI may occur in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a subsequent decline expected in 2026 [70].

宏 观 研 究 海外周度观察 一、回顾：上半年美国通胀表现为何较弱？油价回落、服务通胀降温、关税传导尚不显著 在关税冲击下，美国市场、消费者通胀预期及进口价格上行，但 CPI 表现较弱。密歇根大学 1 年通胀预期一度飙升至 6.6%，4 月 11 日以来 10Y 美债隐含通胀预期上行 13BP，进口价格指 数也在 4 月、5 月明显上涨。但是，美国近几个月通胀却持续不及预期，5 月 CPI 环比仅 0.1%。 结构来看，上半年美国通胀的拖累主要来自于能源、核心服务、核心商品。1）1-5 月油价走弱 拖累整体通胀，但 6 月以来油价大幅反弹；2）美国房租、超级核心服务通胀均稳定降温，可持 续性较强；3）关税对于美国商品通胀已经产生推升效果，但幅度不及市场预期。 二、解构：关税的通胀效应为何低于预期？征收滞后、抢进口、贸易转移、企业吸收成本冲击 2025 年 06 月 22 日 美国通胀何时"卷土重来"？ 关税实际征收进度较慢，是美国通胀尚未明显上升的原因之一。美国当前实际征收税率水平仍 低于理论水平，可能原因包括关税征收流程的滞后性等。例如，美国对等关税于 4 月 5 日正式 落地，但是在 4 月 5 日之前已 ...

据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月20日，美国总统特朗普再次呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔降息。特朗普表示，也许得改变主意，不解雇鲍威尔。 特朗普在社交平台上再次将鲍威尔称作"太迟先生"，并严厉抨击其对通胀成本的抱怨源于"拜登政府造成的经济问题"。他表示，鲍威尔应通过降息来为美 国做出"最大、最好的贡献"。 特朗普写道："如果他把利率降到应有的水平——1%至2%，这个'笨蛋'每年能为美国节省多达1万亿美元。"他还说，目前美国"几乎没有通胀"，经济表现 良好。特朗普称，若鲍威尔确实担心通胀或其他风险，应该"现在降息"，若未来情况变化，再行加息。 此外，特朗普还暗示可能重新考虑是否解除鲍威尔职务一事。特朗普说，"也许，只是也许，我得改变主意不解雇他了？但不管怎样，他的任期很快就要 结束了"。 特朗普今年以来多次批评鲍威尔并威胁解除他的美联储主席职务。美联储6月18日结束议息会议，维持当前政策利率不变。会前，特朗普再度炮轰美联储 主席鲍威尔，斥其为 "不太聪明的政客"，不满其拒绝降息。 鲍威尔接受记者采访时回应称，美联储工作核心是确保经济稳固、物价稳定，未对特朗普的指责正面回应。 美联储主席鲍威尔18日表示，当前美国政府的各项政策 ...

中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 北京时间6月19日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间 维持在4.25%—4.50%之间不变。这一决定符合市场预期，也是美联储连续第4次决定维持利率不变。 相较5月会议内容，本次会议声明的主要变化集中在美联储对于未来不确定性和风险的判断有所减弱， 但依然不容乐观。美联储对经济前景不确定性的表述从"进一步增加"修改为"已经减弱，但仍然偏高"； 声明也删除了有关"失业率上升和通胀上升的风险已经增加"的表述。 尽管美联储本次会议决定维持利率不变，但市场对未来降息的预期却有所升温。 工银国际首席经济学家程实对《中国经营报》记者表示，若通胀水平尤其是核心通胀保持在合理区间 内，美联储可能会在2025年下半年或2026年年初加速采取降息措施以支持经济复苏，预计2025年全年降 息幅度为75—100个基点。 2024年，美联储连续三次降息，分别为2024年9月降息50个基点，2024年11月和12月议息会议上各降息 25个基点。而2025年截至目前，美联储利率政策再次转为观望姿态。 对于未来美联储降息影响，机构人士认为，这将利好资本市场与黄金。 前海开源基金 ...

Macroeconomic Analysis - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [1] - Economic forecasts indicate heightened stagflation concerns, with the Fed lowering growth predictions for 2025 and 2026, raising unemployment rate forecasts, and increasing price index predictions [1] - Tariff impacts on inflation have yet to fully materialize, with expectations of future inflation uncertainty due to tariffs and geopolitical issues, particularly in the Middle East [1][2] - The Fed's stance remains hawkish, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2025 unchanged, but a reduction in anticipated cuts for 2026 from two to one [1] Nuclear Fusion Industry - Shanghai Superconductor's IPO application has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, indicating acceleration in the nuclear fusion industry's commercialization [4] - The company holds over 80% market share in the domestic second-generation high-temperature superconducting wire market, with a global market size projected to exceed 10.5 billion by 2030 [5] - Revenue projections for Shanghai Superconductor show significant growth, with expected revenues of 2.40 billion in 2024, a 187.4% increase year-over-year, and a turnaround to profitability [6] - The nuclear fusion sector is recognized for its potential as an ideal energy source, with the Chinese government emphasizing its importance in future energy strategies [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% and will continue with the existing pace of balance sheet reduction, indicating a cautious approach due to high uncertainty [1][6] - The median target interest rate for 2025 is projected at 3.9%, with potential for two rate cuts within the year, although the number of members expecting no cuts has increased since March [1][6] - Employment trends show a cooling, with May's non-farm payrolls slightly declining and the unemployment rate remaining stable, suggesting a possible overestimation of current employment levels [2][5] Group 2 - Inflation expectations have been adjusted upwards, with the Fed raising the 2025 unemployment rate forecast from 4.4% to 4.5% and the PCE inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3% [4][6] - Powell noted that rising tariffs could increase prices and pressure economic activity, while the labor market remains solid but with fewer new job opportunities [4][6] - The economic growth forecast for 2025 has been downgraded from 1.7% to 1.4%, with 2026 also revised down to 1.6%, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty [6][9] Group 3 - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen from 60% to 71%, driven by service-led inflation decline, although there are short-term risks from commodity inflation due to tariff policies [9] - The overall economic activity is reported to be slightly declining across most regions, with increased policy and economic uncertainty leading to more cautious decision-making by households and businesses [6][9] - The Fed's cautious stance is influenced by the high-interest rate environment and the ongoing development of Trump administration policies, which contribute to economic uncertainty [9]