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冬日经济 热力十足
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-08 19:02
Core Viewpoint - The tourism sector in Huzhu County is thriving despite the cold winter, leveraging its unique ice and snow resources along with cultural experiences to drive economic growth [3][8]. Group 1: Tourism Development - Huzhu County is transforming its winter "cold resources" into economic "hot effects" through a multi-faceted approach combining ice and snow tourism with cultural and health experiences [3]. - The county has a forest coverage rate of 44.19% and a four-month snow season, providing a strong ecological and climatic foundation for tourism [3]. - The upcoming "2026 Rainbow Ice and Snow Carnival" will feature various cultural and tourism activities, aiming to attract a diverse range of visitors [3]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Experience - The North Dragon Mountain Scenic Area offers immersive experiences such as snow hiking and photography contests, enhancing the appeal of ice and snow tourism beyond mere sightseeing [4]. - The "North Dragon Mountain Tourism Scenic Road," spanning 117.72 kilometers, connects various tourism resources and improves service infrastructure, exemplifying modern industrial development in the tourism sector [4]. Group 3: Cultural Integration - The Huzhu Tibetan Cultural Park showcases nine national and 25 provincial intangible cultural heritage items, revitalizing them through active participation in tourism [6]. - Interactive projects in the cultural park allow visitors to engage with traditional crafts and customs, promoting a dynamic experience of cultural heritage [6]. - The integration of wine culture and folk performances at Naton Manor has created a unique industry chain, contributing to local employment and income generation [6]. Group 4: Economic Impact - Over the past three years, Huzhu County has received 12.22 million visitors, generating a tourism revenue of 6.403 billion yuan, highlighting the sector's significant economic contribution [7]. - Local residents benefit from tourism through various income-generating activities, such as traditional dining and handicraft sales, with some artisans earning an additional 1,500 yuan per month [7]. - The county's tourism development aligns with national strategies for rural revitalization and cultural industry empowerment [7][8].
坚持民生为大,长护险构筑“老有所护”安全网
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-08 19:02
(来源:中国妇女报) 转自:中国妇女报 丁继红认为,在我国人口深度老龄化进程加速、失能半失能老年人群体持续扩大的背景下,长期护理保 险制度能有效破解"一人失能、全家失衡"的家庭困境,充分发挥社会保障的兜底保障功能。一方面有效 分摊了失能、半失能人员的照护成本,防止因灾难性卫生支出导致的家庭经济危机。另一方面通过提供 涵盖生活照料、医疗护理的全链条专业化服务,有效提升了失能人群的生活质量,为家庭照护者提供了 急需的"喘息服务",让处于高压看护状态的家庭成员得以暂时解脱,有机会回归职场、参与社会生活。 激活内需 赋能高质量发展 同时,从与经济高质量发展核心目标的关联来看,丁继红认为,长期护理保险制度并非单纯的民生支 出,而是赋能高质量发展的"积极变量",二者环环相扣、协同增效。 丁继红认为,从市场供给端看,长护险的推广催生了"银发经济"新增长点,为新质生产力培育提供了广 阔应用场景。 "中青年群体无须为储备照护资金过度储蓄,老年群体的护理服务消费需求得到有效满足,为扩大内 需、构建新发展格局注入持久动力。"丁继红表示,长期护理保险凭借制度化的支付保障机制,将原本 分散、不确定的私人护理支出,转化为稳定、可预期的规 ...
中国记协举办新闻茶座 聚焦建设强大国内市场
Xin Hua Wang· 2026-01-08 11:52
新华社北京1月8日电(记者 戴锦镕)中国记协8日在京举办新闻茶座,邀请商务部国际贸易经济研 究院学术委员会副主任张建平围绕"坚持内需导向,建设强大国内市场"主题,与境内外记者交流并回答 提问。 座谈会上,张建平还就扩大内需、社会保障等话题回答了中外记者提问。 张建平结合当前国际经贸热点,以国际视野分析了中国大市场面临的挑战和机遇。张建平说,中国 现在是全球第二大消费市场,消费市场的增长潜力和空间巨大,其中文化旅游、信息服务、教育培训等 服务消费的增速较快,未来服务消费的增长潜力将进一步释放,也会支持扩大内需。同时要努力做好就 业工作,稳定经济增长,提高居民可支配收入水平和居民消费能力。要优化市场环境,建设全国统一大 市场,让消费环境更加透明公平。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:赵文涵】 中国大市场是面向全球开放的大市场。张建平说,中国新的外贸竞争力还在继续成长,一大批中国 品牌的跨国公司也在成长,未来中国在全球的市场份额还有进一步的上升空间。 张建平表示,中国扩大内需、推动高质量发展背后必须要依赖开放发展和创新发展的联动。以开放 促改革、促发展,会让中国走向更高质量的发展,对世界经济作出更大的贡献。 ...
2026年宏观经济与资产配置展望
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-08 10:17
Group 1 - The core theme for China's economy in 2026 will focus on boosting domestic demand and emphasizing technology development, as external uncertainties persist due to factors like the US-China trade war [2][3][25] - The economic growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 5.0%, which aims to ensure over 10 million new jobs, balancing current needs with long-term goals [6][25] - The potential GDP growth rate is projected to decline to around 4.63% during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), influenced by structural constraints such as an aging population and diminishing capital returns [4][5][6] Group 2 - The government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, maintaining a fiscal deficit of around 4% and a broad fiscal deficit rate potentially exceeding 10% [7][12] - To address insufficient effective demand, an annual injection of 4 trillion to 5 trillion yuan into the economy is necessary to maintain normal economic circulation [12][25] - The real estate market is anticipated to face significant challenges, with a projected need for approximately 4.58 trillion yuan to normalize unsold housing inventory [9][10] Group 3 - The focus on technology will include significant investments in AI infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, and high-end manufacturing sectors, with domestic companies expected to benefit from policy support [21][25] - The consumer market is expected to see a shift towards service consumption, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer environments and increasing household income [19][20] - Structural policies will be necessary to improve income distribution and enhance consumer spending, particularly targeting middle and low-income groups [14][17][25]
货币政策继续适度宽松 央行释放新信号
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-08 06:42
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on enhancing both incremental and stock policies to support economic recovery and stabilize prices [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The meeting emphasized the importance of promoting high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [2][3]. - The PBOC aims to ensure that social financing conditions remain relatively loose, guiding reasonable growth in total financing and balanced credit allocation, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [2][3]. Financial Resource Allocation - The meeting highlighted the need to optimize the financial policy framework to focus resources on key areas, particularly through structural tools and market innovations, with a notable emphasis on the development of the "technology board" in the bond market [4]. - In 2025, over 700 entities issued technology innovation bonds through this platform, with a total scale exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan, addressing financing challenges for technology enterprises [4]. Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC will continue to enhance the "precision drip irrigation" effect of structural monetary policy tools, optimizing tool design and management to increase credit support for consumption and small and micro enterprises [4][6]. - It is anticipated that structural tools will see an "increase in quantity and decrease in price" trend in 2026, with steady increases in quotas and reductions in operational interest rates, aiding in the transition of old and new growth drivers [4]. Supply Chain Financing - The meeting underscored the importance of strengthening regulatory oversight of key supply chain financing information service platforms to ensure smooth funding flows while preventing risks associated with false trade [6]. - The financial work in 2026 is expected to support multiple missions, including stabilizing growth, adjusting structures, preventing risks, and promoting openness, reflecting a commitment to high-quality financial development [6].
港股开盘:恒指跌0.59%、科指跌0.44%,科网股多数走低,创新药及锂电池概念股活跃
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-01-08 01:31
Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on January 8, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.59% at 26,302.78 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.44% at 5,713.53 points, the National Enterprises Index down 0.43% at 9,099.63 points, and the Red Chip Index down 0.14% at 4,109.34 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Alibaba down 1.58%, Tencent down 0.96%, JD.com down 0.79%, Xiaomi down 0.42%, Meituan down 0.77%, and Bilibili down 0.47% [1] - New stocks listed today included Zhihui, which rose over 3%, Tianshu Zhixin, which surged over 31%, and Jingfeng Medical-B, which increased over 36% [1] Company News - Xinyi International (00732.HK) reported a cumulative net operating revenue of approximately HKD 16.534 billion for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of about 7.3% [2] - China Overseas Development (00688.HK) announced a cumulative contract property sales amount of approximately RMB 251.231 billion for 2025, down 19.1% year-on-year [2] - Greentown China (03900.HK) reported a total contract sales amount of approximately RMB 251.9 billion for 2025, a decrease of 9% year-on-year [2] - China Overseas Hongyang Group (00081.HK) achieved a contract sales amount of RMB 2.57 billion for December 2025, down 43.9% year-on-year [3] - Qinhuangdao Port Co., Ltd. (03369.HK) reported a total throughput of 433 million tons for the year ending December 31, 2025, an increase of 4.48% year-on-year [4] - Lijun Pharmaceutical (01513.HK) announced that the injection of Laconchita monoclonal antibody has been included in the priority review and approval process [5] - Kinko Service (09666.HK) received acceptance from independent shareholders for 218.6 million shares without interests [6] - CICC (03908.HK) plans to issue no more than HKD 3 billion in perpetual subordinated bonds [7] - Agricultural Bank of China (01288.HK) saw Ping An Life increase its stake in its H-shares [8] - Aoyou Group (03383.HK) reported a total pre-sale amount of approximately RMB 8.57 billion as of December 31, 2025 [9] - CIMC Group (02039.HK) stated that the sale of property projects will reduce the group's net profit attributable to shareholders by approximately RMB 1.08 billion for 2025 [10] Stock Buybacks - Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) repurchased 3.9 million shares for HKD 149 million at prices between HKD 38.12 and HKD 38.2 [11] - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) repurchased 1.023 million shares for HKD 636 million at prices between HKD 615.5 and HKD 628 [11] - Geely Automobile (00175.HK) repurchased 3.388 million shares for HKD 59.156 million at prices between HKD 17.38 and HKD 17.65 [12] Institutional Insights - Zheshang International noted that the fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market remain weak, with a decline in the funding environment, while policy focus is on new productivity and expanding domestic demand [14] - Goldman Sachs maintains an "overweight" rating on Chinese A-shares and H-shares, citing attractive risk-reward ratios amid low profit growth and valuation levels [14] - FSMOne indicated that the valuation recovery of the Hang Seng Index has largely been achieved, with future performance dependent on corporate profit recovery [15] - Huatai Securities highlighted three investment opportunities under new industrialization: high-end manufacturing going global, strengthening domestic supply chains, and forward-looking investments in emerging industries [15]
促消费扩投资“双引擎”发力,各地瞄准扩大内需激活经济
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-07 23:20
Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the emphasis of domestic demand as a primary driver for economic growth, with a strong domestic market being a top priority for 2026 economic work [1] - Various regions are actively working to expand domestic demand through initiatives such as "two new" subsidies to stimulate the home appliance market, leading to increased consumer traffic in sectors like dining and cinema [1] - Large projects are being launched, and the orderly development of "two heavy" constructions is underway, indicating a concerted effort to boost investment and consumption [1] Group 2 - Experts suggest that enhancing domestic demand serves as a stabilizing anchor for the economy, providing support for a sustained recovery and positive growth trajectory [1]
奋进“十五五”开局起好步|坚持扩大内需 推动消费稳定增长
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-07 22:24
(来源:黑龙江日报) 转自:黑龙江日报 □本报记者 付宇 持续推进服务消费提质扩容。着力扩大优质服务供给,大力培育消费新业态新模式新场景,指导哈尔滨 做好"三新"试点项目推进工作,探索服务消费发展新路径;打造龙江特色餐饮体系,指导哈尔滨、齐齐 哈尔等市(地)继续举办好西餐节、烤肉节等美食活动,积极争取纳入商务部"中华美食荟""服务消费 季"系列活动安排;培育大庆、七台河等一批高品质家政服务品牌,开展家政从业人员培训,推选省级 行业协会举办餐饮、洗浴职业技能大赛,促进行业交流和技艺提升。 持续做好以旧换新政策跨年度衔接。积极沟通商务部相关司局跟踪对接2026年度以旧换新政策制定情 况,提前研究谋划我省"两新"接续政策,确保各项政策"无缝衔接",用好用足国债资金,带动形成更多 以旧换新实物量,做好惠民生和促消费有效融合。执行统一的支持品类和标准,与发改、财政等部门协 作,保障以旧换新政策连续性、稳定性,压缩审核时间,提高资金兑付效率,让真金白银迅速、便捷直 达消费者。 持续加大消费券投入力度。加大直达消费者的普惠政策力度,聚焦成品油、百货、商超等限上重点领 域、重点品类,指导各市(地)联合重点商贸企业、电商平台同 ...
李迅雷专栏 | 大国博弈,科技领航——2026年中国经济展望
中泰证券资管· 2026-01-07 12:15
Core Viewpoint - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with macro policies aimed at promoting consumption and expanding investment to ensure a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][6] Export Performance - China's exports are expected to maintain resilience, with a projected nominal growth of 3.4% year-on-year in 2026, supported by factors such as strong external demand and stable Sino-US tariffs [8][12][32] - In 2025, China's export performance exceeded expectations, with nominal year-on-year growth rates of 5.4% in USD and 6.2% in RMB for the first 11 months [9] - The contribution of net exports to GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.5 percentage points, accounting for 29% of the total GDP growth [9] Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment is expected to recover slightly from 1% in 2025 to around 2% in 2026, supported by resilient exports and policy support for advanced manufacturing [2][62] - The decline in manufacturing investment observed since Q3 2025 is attributed to factors such as "strong supply, weak demand" and trade uncertainties [41][47] - The government is likely to continue supporting advanced manufacturing through fiscal, credit, and industrial policies, emphasizing the importance of technological independence [40][52] Real Estate Sector - The direct drag of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to weaken, with a projected year-on-year decline of 5% in housing sales area for 2026 [63][64] - Real estate investment is anticipated to decline by approximately 11% year-on-year in 2026, an improvement from a 16% decline in 2025 [63][66] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are being strengthened to prevent negative spillovers to other sectors [66][68] Consumption and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is crucial for achieving the 5% GDP growth target in 2026, with a focus on promoting consumption and investment [70][75] - The government is expected to maintain support for consumption through long-term special bonds, with a focus on enhancing consumer sentiment and addressing high baseline effects from previous consumption incentives [4][73] - Infrastructure investment is projected to rebound to around 8% year-on-year in 2026, supported by previously announced policies [4][70]
张斌:货币政策如何扩大内需
3 6 Ke· 2026-01-07 11:10
Group 1: Monetary Policy and Demand Expansion - Monetary policy can expand domestic demand by changing the interaction behaviors of countless micro-individuals, encouraging businesses to invest and residents to buy homes and consume [1][7] - The key to achieving these changes lies in the central bank's firm stance on inflation targets and significantly lowering policy interest rates [1][14] - Fiscal policy complements monetary policy by increasing government spending and leveraging its multiplier effect to expand domestic demand [1] Group 2: Historical Context and Examples - Since the 1990s, central banks have been the main force behind policies to expand domestic demand, often relying solely on monetary policy [1] - During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve, under Bernanke, lowered the federal funds rate from 5.25% to 0.25%, a reduction of 500 basis points, which led to a significant rebound in the S&P 500 index [3] - Japan's central bank, under Kuroda, adopted aggressive monetary policies, including quantitative easing and negative interest rates, which resulted in a substantial increase in the Nikkei 225 index and a recovery in housing prices [5][6] Group 3: Current Economic Challenges in China - China's economy is currently facing challenges of insufficient demand, with private fixed asset investment experiencing negative growth for the first time since 2005, at -0.4% in 2023 [12][13] - Consumer confidence remains low despite some recovery in capital markets and a slight improvement in expectations following proactive counter-cyclical policies [12] - The attractiveness of private investment is low, with the difference between return on assets (ROA) and long-term financing rates at only 0.2% in 2024, the worst level in 20 years [13] Group 4: Mechanisms for Stimulating Investment and Consumption - To stimulate investment and consumption, the central bank must clearly communicate future inflation targets and further reduce policy interest rates, making investments and home purchases more attractive [14] - The relationship between interest rates and housing prices is significant; even a small decrease in interest rates can create substantial upward pressure on housing prices [10][11] - For businesses, lower interest rates reduce financing costs, while for residents, they influence the decision to buy or rent, impacting overall demand [9][10]