Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are currently at $37.86, having retreated from recent highs and are consolidating after breaking the upward channel [1][4]. Price Levels and Market Sentiment - The immediate focus is on reclaiming the 50-period simple moving average at $38.03, which has turned from a support level to a resistance level [2][4]. - The momentum indicators show a bearish bias, with selling pressure easing, but bulls have not yet gained control as silver prices face resistance at $38.03 [3][5]. - Unless silver prices can break above $38.03, the outlook remains neutral to bearish, with a potential retest of lower support levels [4][10]. Technical Indicators - The relative strength index (RSI) is at 46.66, recovering from oversold conditions but still below 50, indicating a mild bearish bias [6]. - The MACD shows that negative momentum is easing, with the histogram contracting and no bullish crossover present [7]. - Price structure indicates lower highs since August 5, with bulls facing resistance [8]. Potential Price Movements - If silver prices close above $38.03, they may rise to $38.50 or even $39.04; conversely, failure to break this level could lead to a retest of $37.31 or even $36.80 [9][12]. - Key resistance levels are at $38.03, $38.50, and $39.04, while support levels are at $37.31, $36.80, and $36.24 [12]. Market Condition - Silver is at a crossroads, with $38.03 acting as a pivot point; a breakout could rejuvenate upward momentum, while rejection may prolong consolidation or push prices back to recent lows [12].

Fundamental Analysis - International gold prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, testing the key support level of $3330 per ounce, with current trading at the lower end of this week's price range [1] - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. July retail sales data, hoping it will provide direction for the stagnant gold market [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year rate of 3.3%, significantly higher than the expected 2.5% and previous 2.4% [1] - The month-on-month PPI surged to 0.9%, well above the anticipated 0.2%, impacting Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations [1] - Following the PPI release, the probability of a 100 basis point rate cut in September dropped from 100% to 85%, with aggressive expectations for a 50 basis point cut nearly extinguished [1] - Federal Reserve officials have made statements indicating a lack of necessity for significant rate cuts, aiming to maintain policy flexibility [1] Technical Analysis - Gold (XAUUSD) showed a significant downward trend, dropping over $40, indicating strong bearish momentum [5] - The price has broken below key moving averages, with the MA60 expected to continue exerting downward pressure on gold prices [5] - The current trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions, anticipating further declines after a brief rebound [5] Trading Strategy - For gold, a short position is recommended around $3355, with a stop loss at $3365 and a target range of $3343 to $3333 [6] - Silver (XAGUSD) also experienced a notable decline, with limited rebound potential, suggesting a bearish outlook [8] - The trading strategy for silver recommends short positions around $38.20, with a stop loss at $38.40 and target levels of $37.95 and $37.60 [8] News Events - Key economic data to be released includes Canadian wholesale sales for June, U.S. retail sales for July, New York Fed manufacturing index for August, and U.S. import price index for July, all scheduled for 20:30 [9]

Group 1 - The market is increasingly anticipating a rate cut in September, with a focus on the Federal Reserve officials' upcoming statements [1][12] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed hesitance towards rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and ongoing tariff uncertainties [2][4] - Goolsbee previously suggested a "golden path" for gradual rate cuts, contingent on stable labor markets and moderate inflation [3][5] Group 2 - Goolsbee indicated that more convincing inflation data is needed before confirming the economic outlook [5] - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports the idea of two rate cuts this year, citing a weakening labor market and slowing economic growth [7][8] - Daly emphasized the importance of waiting for data before making decisions on the number of rate cuts [8] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for September 16-17 to decide on potential rate cuts [10] - Upcoming economic data releases include the August non-farm payrolls on September 5 and the August CPI on September 11 [10] - Market sentiment is optimistic regarding rate cuts, with futures traders pricing in a high likelihood of a September cut and potentially a third cut by year-end [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rise in U.S. inflation and a resilient labor market have led to a decline in gold prices, as market expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have weakened [1][3][4] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 3.3% year-on-year, significantly above the market expectation of 2.5%, marking the largest increase in three years, which has shifted market perceptions regarding inflation [3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 224,000, lower than the expected 228,000, indicating a tight labor market, which further supports the notion that inflationary pressures are still present [3] Group 2 - The dollar index rebounded by 0.5% after hitting a two-week low, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also rose from a one-week low, putting direct pressure on gold prices, which fell by 0.5% to $3,337.21 per ounce [3] - Silver prices also faced pressure, dropping by 1.3% to $37.97 per ounce, while platinum and palladium showed relative strength, increasing by 1.1% and 2% respectively, reflecting the different sensitivities of precious metals to industrial demand and investment [3] - The current gold market is characterized by a delicate balance between macroeconomic pressures and resilient economic data, leading to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction and its impact on gold prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's September interest rate cut window is still the current market's baseline scenario, providing some support for gold prices. The expected US-Russia negotiations have intensified the long-short game in the precious metals market. If the negotiations achieve substantial progress, it may relieve the downward pressure on gold prices; otherwise, the safe-haven demand may drive up gold prices. The feasibility of an interest rate cut greater than 25bps is low and risky. The subsequent PCE and inflation data may become the indicators for the Fed's interest rate cut. In the medium to long term, factors such as the opening of the Fed's interest rate cut window, the long - standing US twin deficits, and the decline of the US dollar's credit still support gold prices. In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the potential risks of unexpected outcomes in the US - Russia negotiations, and maintain a long - term strategy of buying on dips. The suggested trading ranges for next week are: 750 - 800 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract, 9100 - 9300 yuan/kilogram for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract, 3300 - 3400 US dollars/ounce for the London gold price, and 37.5 - 38.5 US dollars/ounce for the London silver price [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: This week, US macro - data fluctuated significantly. Gold prices faced continuous resistance in rising, while silver prices remained relatively firm due to interest rate cut expectations. The July US CPI data strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in September. The PPI index released on Thursday showed an unexpected rebound in producer inflation, which may lead to higher consumer inflation in the future, causing the probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September to decline marginally and gold prices to be trapped in a range - bound oscillation [10]. - **Market Outlook**: The Fed's September interest rate cut window is the baseline scenario, providing support for gold prices. The US - Russia negotiations will intensify the long - short game. The call for an emergency interest rate cut by the US Treasury Secretary and the Trump administration's fiscal stimulus plan, along with the risk of inflation rebound, make a large - scale interest rate cut less likely. The subsequent PCE data may be affected by the PPI rebound, which could hinder the interest rate cut expectations. In the medium to long term, gold prices are supported by multiple factors, and in the short term, they will fluctuate within a range [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of August 15, 2025, COMEX silver was at $38.05 per ounce, down 1.19% month - on - month; the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract was at 9204 yuan/kilogram, down 0.80% month - on - month. COMEX gold was at $3389.4 per ounce, down 1.99% month - on - month; the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract was at 775.80 yuan/gram, down 1.52% month - on - month [13]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 14, 2025, the net holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1.20% month - on - month to 964.22 tons, while the net holdings of the SLV Silver ETF remained basically unchanged at 15100 tons [18]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of August 5, 2025, COMEX gold's total positions increased by 0.99% month - on - month to 449647 contracts, and net positions increased by 6.02% month - on - month to 237050 contracts. COMEX silver's total positions decreased by 5.32% month - on - month to 161262 contracts, and net positions decreased by 14.73% month - on - month to 50658 contracts [23]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 5, 2025, COMEX gold's non - commercial long positions increased by 3.90% month - on - month to 292194 contracts, and non - commercial short positions decreased by 4.30% month - on - month to 55144 contracts [28]. - **Basis Changes**: As of August 14, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.6 yuan/gram, up 20.53% month - on - month; the silver basis was - 12 yuan/kilogram, down 58.62% month - on - month [31]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of August 14, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.15% month - on - month to 38622416.43 ounces, while Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 0.84% month - on - month to 36045 kilograms. COMEX silver inventory remained basically unchanged at 506441781 ounces, and Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory decreased by 2.20% month - on - month to 1158387 kilograms [38]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - **Silver Industry**: As of June 2025, China's silver imports decreased slightly by 0.14% month - on - month to 273364.75 kilograms, and silver ore imports dropped significantly by 7.51% month - on - month to 126019303.00 kilograms. Due to the surge in silver demand in the semiconductor industry, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise, with the monthly production reaching 4506000.00 pieces in June 2025, and the year - on - year growth rate at 15.80% [40][46]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2024, silver's industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. The total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year, and the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [52][56]. - **Gold Industry**: As of August 14, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 773 yuan/gram, down 0.96% week - on - week. The prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Liulifuzhou gold decreased by 0.79%, 1.18%, and 0.70% week - on - week respectively [62]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The slowdown in central bank gold purchases and the high gold prices led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [64]. 3.4 Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: The CPI data was slightly lower than expected, and the US dollar index continued to be under pressure. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility index declined, and the ratio of SP500 to COMEX gold price increased. The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate rose slightly this week. In July 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, marking the 9th consecutive month of increase [68][73][78][82].

2025年8月12日，金融市场上演了一出惊心动魄的大戏。这一天，美股三大指数集体暴涨，涨幅均突破1%，市场气氛紧张而激烈，如同拉锯战般，多空双 方激烈博弈。道琼斯指数狂飙483点，标普500指数上涨72余点，纳斯达克指数更是飙升296点，纳斯达克和标普500指数双双创下历史新高。市场仿佛一夜 之间摆脱泥沼，气势如虹。 大型科技股表现尤为抢眼，英特尔股价暴涨逾5%，Meta市值逼近2万亿美元大关，苹果、微软、谷歌股价均上涨超过1%。特斯拉和英伟达也强势上涨， Meta和英伟达更创下收盘价新高，市场竞争之激烈，宛如决赛圈的终极对决。 中概股也同步狂欢，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.49%。腾讯音乐股价飙升近12%，微博、京东、阿里巴巴等纷纷上涨，百度、爱奇艺等也紧随其后，市场 热情被彻底点燃。 全球资产市场也出现联动效应。富时A50期指夜盘小涨0.31%，收于14120点。黄金期货小幅下跌0.15%，报收于3399.6美元/盎司；白银期货则小涨0.44%。 然而，油价却逆势下跌，WTI原油期货9月合约收跌1.24%，布伦特原油10月合约小跌0.77%，资金在不同板块间迅速流转。 这场市场巨震的导火索，正是美国7月通 ...

在连日上涨的火热态势下，比特币再创历史新高。8月14日，全球币价网站CoinGecko数据显示，比特 币价格突破12.4万美元，超越此前7月14日创下的123205.12美元历史高点。不过最高触及124128美元的 历史最高报价后，比特币涨幅收窄。值得一提的是，其总市值目前已达到2.45万亿美元——超过谷歌， 跻身全球资产标的市值榜的前五位，目前仅落后于黄金、英伟达、微软和苹果。 截至8月14日17时20分，比特币价格报121868美元，24小时内涨1.7%。比特币带动之下，市场主流加密 货币多数上涨，其中以太坊报4747.81美元，24小时内涨2.4%；艾达币（ADA）报0.9894美元，24小时 内上涨13.3%。 继2024年12月突破10万美元大关后，比特币再现"过山车"行情。2025年以来，比特币从年初的9.8万美 元附近波动下行，在2025年4月跌至7.5万美元关口下方，跌幅一度超过30%。触及年内低点后，比特币 在4月由跌转涨，震荡上行后在7月首次突破12万美元关口。2025年4月以来，比特币连续5个月呈现上涨 态势。进入8月后，比特币在11.5万—12万美元区间内震荡多日，单日波动幅度明显加大 ...

美财长呼吁降息 美国财长贝森特敦促美联储降息，认为基准利率应比目前至少低1.5个百分点，还称可能9月降息50个基 点开启一系列降息。交易员加大对央行下调利率的押注，利率下调通常利好不生息的黄金，市场对美联 储9月降息达成普遍共识，推动美元指数走软、美债收益率下降，给金价提供支撑。 关税"乌龙"事件 英国《金融时报》报道美国海关与边境保护局将1公斤和100盎司金条归类需缴更高税额编码，市场担忧 黄金期货交割受影响，8月8日COMEX黄金盘中飙升。随后白宫澄清，特朗普表示黄金不征关税，8月 11日COMEX黄金期货重挫超2%。该事件使金价大幅波动。 美国通胀数据 截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为777.1元/克，上涨0.11%。 国际黄金价格报3419.2美元/盎司，上涨0.32%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 美国7月消费者物价指数（CPI）数据显示通胀涨幅温和，与市场预期基本吻合。这为美联储9月启动降 息提供支撑，投资者几乎完全消化美联储下月降息可能性，甚至押注降息50基点，强化了市场对黄金的 乐观情绪。 走势展望 近期黄金价格受多因素影响波动剧烈。美财长呼吁降息及通胀 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View - The short - term bullish sentiment dominates again, and SHFE zinc continues to rise without fundamental support. Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing high prices [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures market: For SHFE zinc 2508, the opening price was 22,460 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,560 yuan/ton, with a rise of 75 yuan and a gain of 0.33%. The position was 4,550, a decrease of 485. For SHFE zinc 2509, the opening price was 22,485 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,590 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan or 0.38%. The position was 93,386, a decrease of 1,509. For SHFE zinc 2510, the opening price was 22,490 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,610 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.40%. The position was 77,158, an increase of 4,219 [7]. - Market influence factors: The US July CPI data was released, with the year - on - year growth rate slightly lower than expected. The inflation data strengthened the expectation of an interest rate cut in September. SHFE zinc reached a high of 22,775 yuan/ton at night, but the intraday gain declined. The main contract 2509 closed at 22,600 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 0.24%, with reduced volume and positions, and funds flowing out. The positions migrated to far - month contracts. The top 20 positions in total held more long and short positions, and the net short positions increased by 491 lots [7]. - Fundamentals: In August, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained stable at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate increased by 3.5 dollars/dry ton to 82.25 dollars/dry ton. The core contradiction of abundant zinc concentrate and zinc ingots in the market was more prominent during the off - season of demand. The inventory accumulation trend was confirmed, and the social inventory continued to increase at the beginning of the week, reaching 119,000 tons. LME zinc inventory continued to decrease to below 80,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 spread was C4.76. The problem of low inventory and high cancellation ratio still existed. The market was strong overseas and weak domestically, and the low price ratio was difficult to improve. The import window remained closed [7]. - Spot market: The increase in the futures price put pressure on the purchasing sentiment, and the premium continued to decline. The premium in Shanghai market for contract 09 was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton, the premium in Tianjin market compared to Shanghai was at a discount of 10 yuan/ton, and the premium in Guangdong market for contract 09 was at a discount of 75 yuan/ton, and at a discount of 20 yuan/ton compared to Shanghai. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong remained the same [7]. 2. Industry News - On August 13, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,585 - 22,665 yuan/ton, and Shuangyan zinc was traded between 22,695 - 22,785 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 22,515 - 22,595 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 10 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the futures price. In the second trading session, the common domestic brands were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, Honglu - v was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, Huize was at a premium of 50 - 60 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan was at a premium of 90 - 100 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was around 22,565 - 22,635 yuan/ton. The common brands in Ningbo were quoted at a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and at a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. In the first period, Yongchang was quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, Anning was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and Qilin was at a premium of 10 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract for delivery. In the second period, Yongchang's quote was further reduced to around - 50 yuan/ton, and the quotes of other traders remained the same as the previous period [8]. - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 22,550 - 22,650 yuan/ton, and Zijin zinc was traded between 22,590 - 22,670 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 22,490 - 22,570 yuan/ton, and Huludao zinc was quoted at 23,160 yuan/ton. The common 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and Zijin zinc was quoted at a discount of 10 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract. The premium in Tianjin market compared to Shanghai was at a discount of about 10 yuan/ton [8][9]. - In the Guangdong market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,500 - 22,630 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 75 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. In the first period, the holders of goods quoted a discount of 105 - 55 yuan/ton for Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, and Lanxin zinc. In the second period, Qilin, Mengzi, Feilong, Anning, and Lanxin zinc were still at a discount of 105 - 55 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides data on the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and the SHFE monthly spread, with data sources including Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14]

Group 1 - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of over $124,000, reflecting a growing interest in risk investments in global markets [1] - The S&P 500 index has also been on an upward trend, closing at record highs for two consecutive trading days [3] - Year-to-date, Bitcoin has increased by 31% and has risen 60% since its market low in April [4] Group 2 - President Trump's recent executive order may increase demand for cryptocurrencies by allowing 401(k) plans to hold them [5] - Companies are adopting a strategy of accumulating cryptocurrencies, which has boosted demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum [5] - The correlation between cryptocurrencies and stock markets has been positive, with Ethereum showing a stronger relationship with the stock market than Bitcoin [7] Group 3 - Recent U.S. inflation data met expectations, reinforcing market bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6] - This environment is encouraging capital to flow from blue-chip stocks to more volatile digital tokens [6] - The current market rally is characterized by structural buying from asset management firms, corporations, and sovereign entities, rather than just retail enthusiasm [7]