Group 1: Pork Price Outlook - Pork prices are expected to improve quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, with a significant year-on-year increase anticipated in Q3 2026[1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the breeding sow inventory stands at 40.35 million, with a target of reducing to 39 million, indicating a necessary monthly reduction of 280,000 sows[1] - The year-on-year decline in breeding sow inventory is projected to reach -1.62%, -2.50%, and -3.20% for October, November, and December 2025 respectively[1] Group 2: Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has a total remaining production capacity of 3.4 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia holding 2.13 million barrels per day, indicating limited short-term production increase capabilities[2] - The WTI oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, with geopolitical risks potentially pushing this higher[2] - U.S. shale oil production is anticipated to face reduction pressures, with capital expenditures and rig counts declining, leading to a production bottleneck by the end of 2025[2] Group 3: CPI and PPI Projections - Under neutral conditions, CPI is projected to be around 0.5% for 2026, with pork prices averaging 19, 20, 21, and 22 CNY/kg across the quarters[3] - In a positive scenario, CPI could rise to approximately 0.7% due to stronger domestic demand and consumption policies[4] - PPI is expected to turn positive around Q3 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 0.2% in Q3 and maintaining around 0.5% in Q4[4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market strategy for 2026, characterized by a "slow bear" and "divergence" in "relative value" [1] - The real estate industry is expected to bottom out in Q2 2026, with sales, inventory, and new construction growth rates having reached their lowest points [1][6] Core Insights and Arguments - The projected upper limit for interest rates in 2026 is 2.25%, driven primarily by nominal GDP recovery, which is expected to exceed 5% [1][3] - The current policy framework emphasizes stability to address uncertainties and structural challenges, avoiding large-scale stimulus while supporting emerging industries [1][7] - The CPI is forecasted to center around 0.8% next year, while PPI is expected to recover to above -1%, influenced by monetary activation and the bottoming out of real estate investment [1][8] - The market's focus on the lower limit of interest rates is determined by the cost of bank liabilities, which is currently stable at around 1.6% [1][9] Important but Overlooked Content - The phenomenon of monetary activation is reflected in the M1-M2 differential, which has decreased from over 8% to 1%-2% recently, indicating a shift from time deposits to demand deposits [4][5] - The real estate sector is currently experiencing negative growth across all metrics, but improvements are expected as investment growth bottoms out [6] - The sales regulations are aimed at protecting investors and promoting long-term holding, which has led to behavioral changes in the market [21][22] - Non-bank institutions are facing challenges due to new sales regulations and valuation adjustments, leading to potential liquidity opportunities [14] - The macro trading strategy for 2026 will focus on the expected recovery of fundamentals and the panic caused by new redemption fee regulations [15] Market Dynamics - The bond market in 2026 will be characterized by "trading," with structural gaming opportunities arising from the rotation between interest rates and credit [20] - The current monetary policy is expected to have limited room for rate cuts, with only 1-2 potential cuts anticipated [11] - The anticipated rise in funding prices for 2026 is expected to be around 1.5%, slightly higher than the current levels [12] Conclusion - The bond market strategy for 2026 will require a focus on trading and structural opportunities, with an emphasis on liquidity and the impact of regulatory changes on market behavior [20][21]

每经AI快讯，11月26日，波多黎各10月CPI同比增长2.0%，环比增长0.1%。 ...

较为熟知的或许是GDP与CPI 但还有一项被称作 "经济晴雨表" 的关键指标 谈及经济领域的重要指标 手把手带你解锁PMI的秘密 始终在经济运行的关键节点 发挥 "预警"作用 ——它便是 PMI 采购经理指数 今天一起跟随小编的脚步 走进国家统计局 服务业调查中心 企业景气处 连线 首席统计师 霍丽慧 摸清经济运行的"脉搏" 这张 "经济晴雨表" 里的门道 你摸清了吗？ 首席说统计 让你轻松get到经济运行的小变化 从关键数据里摸清经济的大方向 视频制作：郭星辰 来源： 统计微讯 ...

Key Points - The article highlights the mixed signals in the economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating both recovery and challenges in different sectors [2][4][14] - US non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in over five years [13][45] - Eurozone's composite PMI remained stable, but manufacturing showed signs of contraction [14] - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.8% in Q3, with core CPI showing an increasing trend [14] Group 1: Important Data Review - US September non-farm employment data was better than expected, with a growth of 119,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% [13] - October existing home sales in the US reached a new eight-month high, increasing by 1.2% from September [13] - November's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in the US hit a four-month low at 51.9 [13] - Eurozone's November composite PMI was stable at 52.4, with service PMI at its best performance in a year and a half [14] - Japan's Q3 GDP contracted by 1.8% on an annualized basis, with core CPI rising by 3% in October [14] Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The WEI index in the US rose to 2.29, indicating a rebound in economic activity [5][17] - Germany's WAI index also increased to 0.13, suggesting a recovery in economic activity [5][17] Group 3: Demand - US retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 6.1% for the week ending November 14, up from 5.9% the previous week [19] - Mortgage rates in the US rose to 6.26% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, with mortgage applications declining by 5.2% [23] Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices fell, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 295.58, down 2.2% from the previous week [30] - US gasoline prices increased to $2.94 per gallon, reflecting a rise of 0.4% from the previous week [37] Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with respective indices dropping to 0.267 and 1.028 [8][33] - Offshore dollar liquidity showed widening swap points for both the yen and euro against the dollar [36] Group 6: Employment - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased to 220,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.974 million [27]

Truflation is reporting inflation at 2.37% right now.Much more accurate measurement than the government's CPI metric. https://t.co/6BGz2Llm1T ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the October CPI report will not be released, with the November CPI report scheduled for December 18 [1] - The October real earnings report will also be canceled, with the November real earnings report to be published on December 18 [1] - The third-quarter employment cost index will be released on December 10 [1]

🇺🇸 UPDATE: The US Labor Department says November CPI data will be released on December 18. https://t.co/FfTHo4oqny ...

Core Insights - The macroeconomic data for October indicates a short-term increase in economic downward pressure, with a focus on stimulating domestic demand and repairing industrial product prices while maintaining the overall principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" [1] CPI - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% in October from -0.3% in the previous month, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase [2] - The month-on-month increase was 0.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising prices of fruits and vegetables [2] PPI - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October, improving from a decline of 2.3% in September, with the mining sector providing significant support [3] - The prices of production materials increased by 0.1%, with mining prices up by 1% [3] PMI - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49% in October from 49.8% in September, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [4] - The decline in PMI is attributed to high inventory levels, a weakening demand structure, and reduced investment demand due to accelerated debt repayment [5] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (FAI) decreased by 1.7% year-on-year in October, worsening from a decline of 0.5% in September [6] - The decline in infrastructure investment is influenced by multiple factors, including accelerated debt repayment and insufficient project reserves [6] Credit - New credit issuance in October was 220 billion yuan, a decrease of 280 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [7] - The total social financing (TSF) increased by 815 billion yuan, but the growth rate has slowed down [7] M2 - The M2 money supply grew by 8.2% year-on-year in October, down from 8.4% in September, influenced by a rebound in fiscal deposits [8] - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments to support effective investment and address existing debt issues [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent CPI and PPI data indicate a potential recovery in traditional consumption, with slight positive changes in both indices suggesting an improving economic environment [2][3]. CPI and PPI Analysis - In October, the CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, compared to a previous value of -0.3%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. The PPI, on the other hand, recorded a year-on-year decrease of -2.1%, an improvement from -2.3%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [2]. - PPI serves as a leading indicator reflecting changes in the costs of upstream raw materials and intermediate goods, while CPI is a lagging indicator that reflects changes in the prices of consumer goods and services [2]. Economic Implications - A positive trend in PPI, especially if it turns positive on a month-on-month basis, indicates a recovery in industrial product prices and an improvement in corporate profit margins, which could lead to better financial reports for companies [2]. - Conversely, a negative CPI often signals deflation, while a positive CPI suggests inflation. Continuous positive month-on-month growth in CPI indicates a likely recovery in consumer demand [2]. Investment Opportunities - The slight positive changes in both PPI and CPI can be viewed as signals of economic improvement, with moderate inflation being beneficial for investors, potentially leading to increased corporate profits and stock price appreciation [3]. - The performance of the Shenwan Consumption Industry Index shows that the overall consumption sector has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with some sub-sectors being relatively undervalued [4]. Sector Performance - As of November 7, 2025, the performance of various sectors is as follows: - CSI 300: +18.90% - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: +17.35% - Home Appliances: +7.23% - Food and Beverage: -6.05% - Textile and Apparel: +11.97% - Light Industry Manufacturing: +14.34% - Retail: +4.20% - Social Services: +9.12% [3][4]. Recommendations - It is suggested to consider tracking ETFs related to consumption, food and beverage, agriculture, and home appliances, as these sectors may experience growth in the near future [4].