Core Insights - In May, U.S. private sector created only 37,000 new jobs, significantly below expectations and marking the smallest increase in over two years, attributed to trade policies making companies hesitant in hiring [1][3] - The majority of new jobs in May came from the service sector, particularly leisure and hospitality, while manufacturing and natural resources/mining saw job losses [1] - The report indicates a potential weakening labor market amid increasing economic uncertainty as employers reduce hiring [3] Employment Data Summary - In May, construction employment increased by 6,000, down from 16,000 in April; manufacturing jobs decreased by 3,000, following a 4,000 increase in April; trade/transportation/utilities jobs fell by 4,000, after a 21,000 increase in April; financial services added 20,000 jobs, consistent with April; professional/business services saw a decrease of 17,000 jobs, compared to a 2,000 decrease in April [1] - Year-over-year wage growth for construction workers was 4.6% in May, down from 4.7% in April; manufacturing wage growth remained at 4.6%; trade/transportation/utilities wage growth was 4.2%, down from 4.3%; financial services wage growth increased to 5.2% from 5.1%; professional/business services wage growth decreased to 4.2% from 4.3% [2]

周三（6月4日）亚市盘中，COMEX黄金价格上涨，截至目前报3392.30美元/盎司，涨幅0.46%，今日开 盘于3377.80美元/盎司，最高上探3397.10美元/盎司，最低触及3369.70美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 特朗普政府推行的关税政策为美国经济带来了显著的不确定性。库克指出，关税的影响尚不明朗，可能 导致物价一次性上涨，也可能为更持久的通胀压力奠定基础。例如，新冠疫情期间的高通胀环境可能加 剧企业涨价的冲动，从而进一步推高物价。芝加哥联储总裁古尔斯比也在近期活动中表示，企业已经暗 示将关税成本转嫁给消费者，物价上涨的压力可能在一个月内反映在通胀数据中。如果影响更为深远， 几个月内通胀数据可能出现显著变化。 美国劳工部最新发布的《职位空缺和劳动力流动调查》（JOLTS）报告显示，4月份职位空缺和裁员数 量均有所增加。尽管经济学家们尚未对此表示过度担忧，但他们将密切关注即将于周五发布的5月美国 月度就业报告，以进一步判断劳动力市场的健康状况。High Frequency Economics首席经济学家Carl Weinberg分析称，面对关税政策的不确定性，许多美国企业已陷入观望状态，倾向于囤积劳动 ...

消息面： 周二公布的美国4月JOLTs职位空缺录得139.1万人，高于市场预期710万人，前值位720万人；美国4月工厂订单 月率录得-3.7%，低于市场预期-3.1%，前值位3.4%。 行情回顾： 国际黄金周一（6月3日）冲高回落震荡收跌，开盘价3374.39美元/盎司，最高价3392.13美元/盎司，最低价 3333.10美元/盎司，收盘价3350.27美元/盎司。 评论称，美国4月份职位空缺意外增加，增幅相当大，招聘人数也有所增加，表明尽管经济不确定性加剧，但 对工人的需求仍然健康。美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据显示，就业空缺从3月份修正后的720万个增加到739 万个，高于710万个的预期。职位空缺的增加是由专业和商业服务、医疗保健和社会救助等私营行业推动的。 虽然州和地方教育导致政府总职位空缺减少，但联邦政府职位空缺增加。职位空缺的增加，加上稳定的招聘和 低失业率，支持了美联储关于就业市场状况良好的说法。然而，失业人员预计需要更长的时间才能找到工作， 经济学家预计，在特朗普总统征收关税的重压下，未来几个月劳动力市场将更加明显地疲软。 美联储贴现利率会议纪要：几位理事就与关税相关的预期价格压力发表了评论 ...

Core Insights - The JOLTS report indicates an unexpected rise in job vacancies in April, suggesting a healthy labor demand despite economic uncertainties [1][4] - The report shows a rebound in hiring activity, with job openings reaching 7.391 million, exceeding expectations of 7.1 million [1][4] - The overall trend in job vacancies has remained stable between 7 million and 8 million over the past year, with a significant increase in private sector job openings [3][4] Group 1: Job Market Dynamics - April job openings increased by 0.691 million from the previous month, with the prior month's figure revised slightly upward [1][4] - The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals remains at 1.0, consistent with pre-pandemic levels, indicating a balanced labor supply and demand [4] - Job openings in April were primarily driven by the private sector, particularly in professional and business services, healthcare, and social assistance [4] Group 2: Hiring and Layoff Trends - Hiring in April reached its highest level in nearly a year, with an increase of 169,000 to 5.6 million [4] - Layoffs rose to the highest level since October of the previous year, increasing by 196,000 to 1.79 million [4] - The number of voluntary resignations decreased by 150,000 to 3.2 million, indicating a slight decline in worker confidence [4][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Implications - The labor market is returning to a more normal state, supporting the Federal Reserve's view of a healthy employment situation [6] - Economists anticipate a slowdown in the labor market in the coming months due to the impact of tariff policies, although current data does not yet reflect this [6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, with potential rate cuts not anticipated until September [6] Group 4: Data Reliability and Market Reactions - Some economists question the reliability of the JOLTS data due to a low response rate in the current survey [7] - Following the JOLTS report, market reactions included a decline in gold prices, an increase in the dollar index, and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields [8]

Group 1 - The number of job vacancies in the U.S. unexpectedly increased in April, rising from a revised 7.2 million in March to 7.39 million, surpassing the expected median of 7.1 million [1] - The growth in job vacancies primarily came from the private sector, particularly in professional and business services, as well as the healthcare and social assistance industries [1] - Despite a decrease in job vacancies in state and local education departments, there was an increase in federal government job openings [1] Group 2 - The increase in job vacancies, stable hiring, and low unemployment rates support the Federal Reserve's view of a healthy job market [1] - However, the time it takes for unemployed individuals to find jobs has lengthened, and economists anticipate a more noticeable softening in the labor market in the coming months due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies [1]

英国央行行长贝利：劳动力市场有所放松。 ...

英国央行货币政策委员曼恩：5月份投票维持利率不变，因为劳动力市场没有像我2月份预期的那样宽 松。 ...

澳洲联储会议纪要：通胀仍未达到目标区间的中点，劳动力市场仍然紧张。 ...

美联储戴利：如果劳动力市场保持强劲且通胀率下降，今年进行两次降息是合理的，但潜在风险的范围 仍然很大。 ...

美联储戴利：预计将继续推动通胀下降，劳动力市场虽有所放缓但仍保持坚挺。 ...