Core Insights - The ongoing risk assessment of the conflict between Israel and Iran has led some tanker owners and management companies to suspend vessel capacity for Middle Eastern routes, raising concerns about energy export flows in the region [1] - Oil producers and traders attempting to charter tankers for transporting crude and refined oil from the Persian Gulf are facing a shortage of capacity, with some temporary charter agreements not being finalized due to owners refusing to renew contracts [1] - The global oil market will closely monitor the shipping security situation in the Middle East and surrounding waters in the coming weeks, as the region accounts for about one-third of global crude production [1] Shipping Rates and Market Reactions - The benchmark shipping rate for very large crude carriers (VLCC) from the Middle East to China, TD3C, surged to 55-58 WS, a 20%-30% increase from the beginning of the week [2] - Although there were no public quotes on Monday, industry insiders reported that the TD3C rate further increased to around 65 WS [2] - The trading volume of forward freight agreements (FFA), used as a risk hedging tool in the industry, has significantly increased, indicating heightened market risk aversion, with TD3C FFA prices rising to $14 per ton from approximately $11 before the Israeli attacks on Iran [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 264500 | 810 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 32780 | 80 | | | 8月-9月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 310 | 120 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 23916 | -676 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 2765 | -974 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2260 | -105 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7107 | -265 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 415 | -105 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 6760 | -14 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 265300 | -300 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 265190 | -490 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 1910 | 1760 LME锡升贴水(0- ...

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have heightened market risk aversion, leading to a new high in gold prices over the past two months [1] - Weak inflation data from the US has reinforced market expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, increasing the attractiveness of gold assets [1] - Upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Chairman Powell's speech, are expected to influence gold prices significantly [1] Group 2 - A trading strategy suggests buying gold on a pullback to the 3420-3415 range, with a stop loss at 3407 and a target of 3440-3460 [2] - Technical analysis indicates a critical resistance zone at 3455-3460; failure to break this level may lead to a technical pullback [3] - Key support levels to monitor include 3420, which is a short-term pivot point, and 3410-3405, which is a critical trend support level [3]

| 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | | 以色列空袭伊朗事件升级发酵，主推避险情况，尽管美国数据积极，关税谈判 | | 黄金 强势走高 | 进入关键时期，短期不确定性仍然较多，关注中东问题的严峻程度。长期全球 | | | 尚在秩序重塑途中，黄金战略配置价值高。【790-815】 | | | 白银跟随黄金避险情绪，市场表现上涨，金银比价方面，目前回归正常区间， | | 白银 高位震荡 | 目前白银基本面变化不大，短期白银将交易黄金和基本金属跟随特性，关注 | | | 8700，如果撑不住或再次回到前期区间。【8700-9000】 | | | 中美会谈结束并没有实质性大利好，国内宏观窗口期，中东地缘风险激增，市场对 | | 铜 区间震荡 | 全球经济下行担忧增加，市场避险情绪回升，铜短期反弹，但整体或仍旧承压，重 | | | 新回到震荡区间。中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77800，78800】 | | | 海外地缘风险激增，美联储议息会议临近，市场避险情绪上升，锌止跌反弹， | | 锌 反弹 | 成本支撑下深跌空间或有限，但整体依旧偏弱，短期建议暂时观望，长期看， | ...

Group 1 - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in WTI crude oil futures, which surged nearly 14%, and COMEX gold, which rose nearly 2% before experiencing a pullback [1] - The stock markets in multiple countries have reacted negatively, with the three major US stock indices closing lower, while sectors such as oil, gold, military industry, and nuclear pollution prevention in the A-share market showed strength [1] - The Middle East situation is expected to have a limited impact on international gold prices, as the market's risk aversion sentiment may suppress gold prices, although a continued depreciation of the US dollar could support gold prices [4][5] Group 2 - The Middle East region accounts for approximately 15% of global methanol production capacity, with Iran being the largest producer, contributing about 8.6% of global capacity in 2023 [4] - The military sector is viewed positively by several analysts, especially with the upcoming 55th Paris Air Show scheduled for June 16-22, 2025, where significant Chinese military aircraft will be showcased [5] - Analysts believe that the impact of the Middle East situation on global stock markets will weaken, and the A-share market is expected to stabilize, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing support from moving averages [5][6]

美国5月通胀预期全面下降，金价企稳反弹 2. 地缘方面，根据新华社报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会9日发表声明说，若伊朗遭以色列袭击，以色 列的秘密核设施将成为伊朗的打击目标。据美国媒体日前报道，有情报表明以色列正准备袭击伊朗核设 施。由此可见，中东地区的地缘冲突一触即发，市场避险情绪仍较浓，短期金价或维持震荡偏强运行， 关注周三美CPI数据指引。 金十期货特约光大期货点评：6月9日，COMEX黄金止跌企稳，小幅探涨，报收3346.7美元/盎司，涨幅 0.00%。国内SHFE金夜盘低开高走，报收776.66元/克，涨幅0.18%。 1. 当地时间6月9日下午，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行。受到谈判利好预期、关税调低预 期影响，周一美国纽约联储发布的5月最新调查结果显示，5月美国消费者未来通胀预期全面下降，为 2024年来首次，其中一年期通胀预期降幅最大，从4月的3.6%降至3.2%，三年期通胀预期从3.2%降至 3%。五年期通胀预期从2.7%降至2.6%。通胀预期虽仍高于美联储2%目标，但已明显回落。市场预期在 本周三公布的美国5月CPI将跟随回落，降息预期升温，美债收益率普遍跌超3个基点，略微回吐非农 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 9 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-9） | | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回升，主流矿山发运量保持平稳回升 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 万吨至 | | | | 态势，需求端铁水产量环比回落 0.1 241.8 万吨，连续四周下行， | | | | | | 基本面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水 | | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹抛空 | 仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁 | | | | | | 关税至 50%，资金和情绪端表现出偏空，关注市场对关税的消化反应以及 | | | | | | 减产的推进程度，短期受煤焦带动呈现反弹走势，策略上，前期空单建议 | | | | | | 继续持有，情绪性反弹可酌情加仓。 | | | | | | 煤焦：部分煤矿因完成月度生产任务而停产或减产，但炼焦煤整体高供应 | | | | | | 弱需求格局难以缓解。焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，52 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Views - The report expresses optimism for industrial metals due to easing tariff expectations and a favorable domestic macroeconomic environment [2]. - Industrial metal prices have shown resilience, with LME prices for aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin experiencing increases of +0.12%, +1.83%, +1.25%, +0.51%, +1.21%, and +6.70% respectively [1][2]. - The report highlights a significant decrease in industrial metal inventories, particularly for copper (-11.66%) and aluminum (-2.33%), indicating tightening supply conditions [1][2]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that the SMM copper concentrate import index increased by $0.27/ton, indicating a slight improvement in supply conditions [2]. - Domestic copper cable manufacturers' operating rates decreased to 76.08%, reflecting seasonal demand weakness [2]. - Aluminum prices are stabilizing after initial volatility due to geopolitical events, with domestic aluminum ingot inventories decreasing by 0.7 thousand tons [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices continue to decline but are approaching mining cost levels, while cobalt prices are expected to rise due to potential supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [3]. - Nickel prices have shown slight recovery, but overall demand remains weak, leading to expectations of continued price fluctuations [3]. Precious Metals - The report indicates a bullish outlook for gold prices due to expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [4]. - Silver prices have surged, reaching levels not seen since March 2012, driven by a favorable market environment [4]. - Key companies in the precious metals sector are recommended for investment, including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, with recommendations for investment in companies like Zijin Mining (PE 12), Luoyang Molybdenum (PE 11), and Yunnan Aluminum (PE 6) [4].

Group 1 - Silver and platinum prices have surged, with silver reaching a high of $36.263 per ounce, the highest since February 2012, and platinum hitting $1172.59 per ounce, the highest in nearly two years [1][2] - Year-to-date, silver has increased by approximately 24% and platinum by 28%, comparable to gold's performance [1] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to geopolitical tensions, fluctuating tariff policies, and recovering demand, alongside technical factors driving price increases [1][2] Group 2 - The gold-silver ratio reached a historical high of 106 when gold prices surged to $3500 per ounce, prompting hedge funds to shift positions from gold to silver [2] - Historical trends indicate that when the gold-silver ratio exceeds 80, silver has a 70% probability of experiencing a price increase, with expectations of returning to a more reasonable range of 60-70 [2] - Strong physical silver demand from India and recovering platinum demand from China are contributing to the market's upward momentum [2][3] Group 3 - Economic recovery is expected to significantly boost industrial demand for silver, which is essential in various sectors such as electronics, photovoltaics, and automotive manufacturing [3] - Silver's role in clean energy technologies provides a solid fundamental support for its price increase [3] - Current market analysis suggests that silver's upward trend is likely to continue until a significant risk event disrupts the price trajectory [3]

6月6日国内金价快报：国内品牌金店金价整体持稳，个别金店金价不断起伏中。今日的最高价金店为六福等金店，不涨不 跌，报价1020元/克。上海中国黄金价格不变，报价981元/克，仍是最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差39元/克，价差稍稍缩 小。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 昨日现货黄金盘中一度突破3400美元大关，不过很快就出现急跌。中美双方同意继续落实日内瓦经贸会谈共识，尽快举行 新一轮会谈，市场避险情绪削弱。最低跌至3338.29美元/盎司。最终收报3352.63美元/盎司，跌幅0.59%。今日金价仍在震 荡，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3357.40美元/盎司，涨幅0.14%。 注意，今晚就将公布美国5月非农数据，市场预期新增12.5万个岗位，对比上月大幅减少。不过巴克莱的美国经济学家乔纳 森·米勒预测5月新增就业岗位将达到15万个。而非农数据强劲可能强化美元，限制金价涨幅。 此外，昨日有以色列官员透露，以色列已向白宫保证，暂不会对伊朗核设施发动攻击，除非美国总统特朗普发出与伊朗谈 判失败的信号。市场的避险情绪削弱，压制昨日金价下行。 | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年6月6日) | | | | -- ...