Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates a strong performance in the excavator market, with total sales reaching 17,138 units in July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.2%. Domestic sales accounted for 7,306 units (up 17.2%), while exports reached 9,832 units (up 31.9%), suggesting a robust recovery in both domestic and overseas demand [1]. Domestic Demand - The domestic demand for excavators is showing resilience, supported by both replacement and incremental demand influenced by the timing of funding availability. The government has allocated 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds for infrastructure projects, which is 500 billion yuan more than the previous year. This funding is expected to facilitate project approvals and stimulate demand in Q3 [2]. - The peak of the previous domestic demand cycle occurred in 2016-2017, with new machine replacements expected to begin in 2024-2025. The combination of new projects and the upcoming replacement cycle is anticipated to drive demand for non-excavator products, such as cranes and concrete machinery, aligning their growth rates with those of excavators [2]. Overseas Demand - The overseas market for excavators is experiencing a significant recovery, with export growth exceeding market expectations. From January to June 2025, China's engineering machinery exports amounted to $27.998 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. Excavator exports specifically grew by 23.1%, with Indonesia, Russia, and Belgium being the top three markets [3]. - The European market is gradually recovering, with exports to the U.S. showing signs of stabilization after a decline due to tariff policies. In June, excavator exports to the U.S. reached $33.2698 million, a month-on-month increase of 130.8%. The low base effect in mature markets is expected to limit further declines in 2025, providing strong support for leading manufacturers' performance [3].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup analysts expect the Federal Reserve to potentially restart the interest rate cut cycle in September, with a total of three rate cuts of 25 basis points each anticipated for the remainder of the year [1] Group 1 - The US Dollar Index is forecasted to be 95.89 in three months [1] - The US Dollar Index is projected to reach 97.93 in six to twelve months [1]

Summary of Aluminum Industry Research Conference Call Industry Overview - The aluminum supply is strictly limited by power factors, with domestic capacity constraints and high overseas investment costs leading to limited supply, supporting high aluminum prices [1][3] - Despite a global economic slowdown, demand for non-ferrous metals shows resilience, with increased aluminum demand driven by new energy, grid construction, and smart technologies [1][4] Key Insights - The capital expenditure in the electrolytic aluminum sector is contracting, with an increase in cash flow and dividend payout ratios, achieving the highest dividend yield in the market (over 5%) [1][7] - The aluminum and coal industries have successfully implemented supply-side reforms due to their impact on social stability, while steel and chemical industries face challenges due to local government pressures [1][8] - Aluminum demand is more resilient than copper, benefiting from rapid grid construction and new energy vehicle developments, contributing significantly to demand growth [1][15] Supply Dynamics - Both domestic and international aluminum supply are in a tight balance, with overseas planned capacity limited and actual production progress falling short of expectations [1][18] - The industrial support capacity is currently poor, with raw materials heavily reliant on imports, restricting large-scale aluminum production [1][19] Economic Impact - The interest rate cut cycle is favorable for non-ferrous asset allocation, with low inventories of copper and aluminum making them sensitive to liquidity [1][11] - The current average dividend yield for the aluminum sector is over 5%, with potential for further increases, possibly replicating the past growth of the coal sector [1][7][27] Investment Opportunities - High-dividend private enterprises such as Hongqiao and Hongchuang, as well as undervalued state-owned enterprises like Yun Aluminum and Shenhuo, are worth attention [1][26] - The aluminum sector is expected to see a significant rebound in pricing and profitability, with a potential increase in valuation multiples from 6-7 times to 15-16 times [1][28] Future Trends - The aluminum industry is anticipated to transition from a manufacturing focus to a resource-based asset industry, with strong price and profit recovery expected [1][28] - The demand for aluminum is projected to remain strong due to ongoing industrial upgrades and the transition to new energy applications [1][16][15] Conclusion - The aluminum industry is positioned for growth, driven by structural changes in demand and supply dynamics, with high dividend yields and potential for significant capital appreciation making it an attractive investment opportunity [1][30]

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a surge in trading enthusiasm, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, standing above 3600 points, which has led to significant inflows into stock ETFs [1][2] - As of August 11, the total net inflow into stock ETFs (including cross-border ETFs) reached 45.94 billion yuan, with A-share stock ETFs contributing 10.70 billion yuan [1][2] - In the first seven trading days of August, there was only one day of net outflow, while the total net inflow for the month exceeded 123 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The total scale of stock ETFs in the market reached 3.63 trillion yuan, with a total increase of 19.10 billion units in ETF shares on August 11 [2][4] - The largest net inflows were seen in broad-based ETFs and Hong Kong market ETFs, with net inflows of 38.97 billion yuan and 23.83 billion yuan, respectively [4][6] - Specific ETFs such as the Huaxia CSI 50 ETF and the Southern CSI 1000 ETF led the market with net inflows of 19.10 billion yuan and 12.65 billion yuan, respectively [6][5] Group 3 - Several Hong Kong innovation drug ETFs and internet ETFs have attracted significant capital, with the Fuguo Hong Kong Internet ETF seeing over 35 billion yuan in net inflows since August [7] - The innovation drug sector is expected to maintain long-term investment value, driven by factors such as increased demand for CXO services and a growing number of approved innovative drugs [8] - The brokerage sector is also anticipated to benefit from multiple catalysts, including a record high margin financing balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan [9]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a surge in investor enthusiasm, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, leading to significant inflows into stock ETFs since August [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - On August 11, the Shanghai Composite Index achieved six consecutive days of gains, reaching a new high for the year, which has stimulated market enthusiasm for buying [4]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has reached a historical high of 1.44 trillion yuan this year [2]. ETF Inflows - As of August 11, the total net inflow into stock ETFs (including cross-border ETFs) was 45.94 billion yuan, with A-share stock ETFs contributing 10.70 billion yuan [2][4]. - In the first seven trading days of August, there was only one day of net outflow, with total net inflows exceeding 12.3 billion yuan [2]. ETF Types and Performance - Broad-based ETFs and Hong Kong market ETFs led the inflows, with net inflows of 38.97 billion yuan and 23.83 billion yuan, respectively [6]. - The ETFs tracking the SSE 50 Index saw the highest single-day net inflow of 19.53 billion yuan [6]. Major Fund Companies - E Fund's ETFs reached a total scale of 684.02 billion yuan, with an increase of 4.17 billion yuan on the previous day, marking a total growth of 83.37 billion yuan since 2025 [6]. - Several ETFs from major fund companies, including Huaxia and Southern Fund, also reported significant net inflows [7][9]. Specific ETF Inflows - The top two ETFs by net inflow were Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and Southern CSI 1000 ETF, with inflows of 19.10 billion yuan and 12.65 billion yuan, respectively [9][10]. - Hong Kong innovation drug ETFs and internet ETFs have also attracted substantial inflows, with the former seeing over 3.5 billion yuan in net inflows since August [10]. Future Outlook - The manager of the Hong Kong innovation drug sector believes that despite potential short-term corrections, the long-term investment value remains strong due to various factors, including increased demand for CXO services and a favorable global financing environment [11]. - The manager of the brokerage sector ETF anticipates that multiple factors could catalyze the brokerage sector's performance, including high margin financing balances and the potential for a "summer rally" in underperforming brokerages [12].

【市场复盘】 【沽空数据】 上周五，港股三大指数集体回调。截至收盘，恒生指数跌0.89%，报24858.82点；恒生科技指数跌1.56%，报5460.30点；国企指数跌0.96%，报8895.28点。盘 面上，半导体产业链领跌，消费电子、AI应用、机器人题材走弱，有色金属、建筑等行业逆势走强。热点个股方面，美团跌近1%，快手、腾讯控股跌超 1%，阿里巴巴跌近2.5%，中芯国际跌超8%，蔚来涨近3%。热点ETF方面，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）随指数下行，跌幅超1.5%。周线上看，港股上周三 大指数集体走强，恒生指数累计上涨1.43%，恒生科技指数累计上涨1.17%，国企指数累计上涨1.03%。 【南向资金】 8月8日，南向资金净买入港股62.71亿港元。上周，南向资金累计净买入217.51亿港元，当周累计成交6500.55亿港元，约占同期恒指成交额的57.42%。截至8 月8日，今年以来南向资金累计净流入达9008亿港元，首次突破9000亿港元。 【隔夜美股】 隔夜美股三大股指全线收涨，道指涨0.47%，标普500指数涨0.78%，纳指涨0.98%，创收盘新高。苹果涨超4%，思科涨逾2%，领涨道指。万得 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Overview - The first meeting between US and Russian leaders in four years is scheduled for August 15, which may impact geopolitical dynamics [1] - The US has imposed additional tariffs on India, leading to a pause in defense cooperation [1] - The Federal Reserve's personnel changes are raising expectations for interest rate cuts in September, while the Bank of Japan hints at potential future rate hikes [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - July's CPI remained flat year-on-year, while core CPI has risen for three consecutive months, indicating a mild improvement in macroeconomic conditions [1] - The decline in PPI has narrowed, reflecting the effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [1] - Foreign trade growth reached a year-to-date high, with both imports and exports showing year-on-year increases [1] - The A-share market is experiencing a recovery in sentiment, with margin trading balances returning to 2 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices experienced fluctuations but ended higher, driven by a weakening labor market and expectations of Fed rate cuts, alongside increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical risks [1] - Oil prices saw a decline due to heightened trade tensions between the US and India, raising concerns over demand, while OPEC+ continues to increase production [1] Group 4: Bond Market Analysis - US Treasury yields rose slightly as Fed officials maintained a cautious stance on monetary policy, increasing uncertainty around rapid rate cuts [2] - Chinese bond yields fell slightly due to stable inflation indicators, supporting expectations for moderate monetary easing [2] Group 5: Currency Market Trends - The US dollar index fell as July non-farm payroll growth slowed and unemployment rose to 4.3%, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut in September [3] - The USD/JPY pair saw fluctuations, supported by the US 10-year Treasury yield maintaining an advantage over Japanese bonds [3] Group 6: Equity Market Performance - Global stock markets performed well, buoyed by weaker US non-farm data that enhanced expectations for Fed rate cuts, boosting risk appetite [3] - US tech giants reported better-than-expected earnings, particularly in AI and cloud sectors, further supporting market confidence [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - After continuous increases, the probability of market fluctuations is high. The A-share market has shown resilience recently. Although short - term volatility of the market may intensify after continuous index increases, the overall strategy is to go long on dips [10][11] - The Politburo meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, confirming the policy's support for the capital market [10][11] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: The Politburo meeting aimed to enhance the capital market's attractiveness; overseas stock trading income is taxable; A - share margin trading balance is close to 2 trillion yuan; the central bank conducted a 7000 - billion - yuan 3 - month reverse repurchase operation [10] - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%; June consumption growth was 4.8%; industrial added - value growth was 6.8%; July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%; June social financing scale increased by 8.9% year - on - year; July exports increased by 7.2% and imports by 4.1% [10] - **Interest Rates and Credit Environment**: 10Y treasury and credit bond rates declined, and credit spreads narrowed. Liquidity became looser at the beginning of the month [10] - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term due to medium - low valuation and long - term IM discount; hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new interest rate cut cycle may benefit high - dividend assets [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3573.21, up 3.74%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 11009.77, up 5.20%; and other major indices also had varying degrees of increase [14] - **Futures Market**: All major index futures contracts showed increases, such as IF contracts with increases ranging from 3.47% to 4.17% [15] 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%; July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%; June consumption growth slowed to 4.8%; exports maintained resilience; investment growth declined to 2.8% [36][39][42] - **Corporate Earnings**: In Q1 2025, the revenue growth of non - financial A - share listed companies slightly declined but was still higher than Q3 2024, and the operating net cash flow improved [45] 3.4 Interest Rates and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: 10Y treasury and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rates declined [48] - **Credit Environment**: In June 2025, M1 growth was 4.6%, M2 growth was 8.3%, and social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, with government bonds and corporate short - term loans being the main contributors [59] 3.5 Capital Flows - **Inflow**: This week, 146.21 billion shares of new equity - biased funds were established, and the net margin purchase was 326.43 billion yuan [65][69] - **Outflow**: This week, major shareholders had a net increase of - 50.67 billion yuan, and there was 1 IPO approval [72] 3.6 Valuation - **P/E Ratio (TTM)**: Shanghai 50 was 11.49, CSI 300 was 13.33, CSI 500 was 30.58, and CSI 1000 was 42.19 [76] - **P/B Ratio (LF)**: Shanghai 50 was 1.27, CSI 300 was 1.41, CSI 500 was 2.06, and CSI 1000 was 2.34 [76]

消息面上，8月7日，中国人民银行公布的数据显示，截至7月末，我国黄金储备规模7396万盎司，较6月 末增加6万盎司，为连续第9个月增持黄金。此外，周四晚间公布数据显示8月初美国初次申请失业金人 数超出市场预期，短线避险需求升温推动金价走高。值得关注的是，有消息称，美联储理事沃勒被特朗 普团队视作美联储主席的优先人选之一，而沃勒的降息意愿可能是其在特朗普眼中的加分项。 中信期货认为，随着非农数据的暴雷和美股的反转，美国经济短期韧性的交易短期或告一段落，市场重 回美国基本面走弱+降息周期重启的逻辑定价，黄金市场情绪将转向积极。此外，该行提示，美联储换 届节奏的加快，可能带来明年利率路径预期的改变和美联储独立性的忧虑，有望带来价格弹性的放大。 黄金中长期牛市趋势不变，关税路径下的美国基本面延续放缓及降息周期的重启带来中期驱动，美元信 用收缩构筑长期牛市基石。 黄金股延续近期涨势，截至发稿，集海资源(02489)涨4.96%，报1.48港元；潼关黄金(00340)涨4.1%，报 2.03港元；山东黄金（600547）(01787)涨2.9%，报29.78港元；招金矿业(01818)涨2.83%，报22.56港 元；紫 ...

上周五，美国公布的7月非农就业数据意外"爆冷"，远不及市场预期。这盆泼向美国经济的"冷水"，却给资本市场点燃了一把火，金价应声拉升，COMEX黄 金期货当天涨幅超2%。 今年以来，黄金走强的驱动因素主要是美国经济数据趋弱催化美国滞胀/衰退预期，无论美国降息预期再扩张与美国再通胀两种路径哪种发生，均利多金 价。 事实上，尽管今年全球风险偏好显著回升，几个主要股市的表现都比较亮眼，黄金的涨幅依旧领跑。近期，随着美联储9月降息预期升温，资金再度聚焦黄 金。其中，以金ETF（159834；联接A/C：018391/018392）为代表的黄金ETF产品，为普通投资者提供了便捷高效的配置通道。 数据来源：Wind，数据区间：2025.01.01-2025.08.04 数据来源：Wind，数据区间：2025.01.01-2025.08.04 当前普遍预计美联储将加快降息节奏，根据wind数据，截至8月5日，CME掉期利率显示9月降息概率超九成，或对黄金价格形成支撑。 当下的投资价值与逻辑支撑 我们知道，黄金集避险硬通货、通胀对冲货币、工业与饰品商品三重属性于一身，且与股债低相关，是天然的跨维度风险缓冲器。眼下，地缘政治升温 ...