1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper valuation is slightly bullish with a neutral bias, as the domestic and foreign basis has risen, the refined - scrap spread has narrowed, and the global visible inventory has continued to increase. In terms of drivers, the decline in the global manufacturing PMI is bearish, while the US dollar index and copper concentrate processing fees are bullish. - Sino - US trade negotiations are still uncertain, but the mood has marginally improved after the weekend meeting of the two countries' trade negotiators. Industrially, the supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and overseas copper mine production cuts have tightened future supply expectations. Coupled with the improvement in downstream consumption as copper prices fall, there is strong price support. Short - term copper prices may run strongly. - The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper this week is 83,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is 10,450 - 11,000 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee for copper concentrates has declined, the processing fee for blister copper is flat, and the supply of cold materials remains tight. In August, Peru's copper production decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 243,000 tons, and the cumulative production from January to August was 1.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.4 million tons week - on - week. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 0.1 to 1.1 million tons, the LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 1.37 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.5 to 3.14 million tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 1.2 million tons. On Friday, the domestic spot in Shanghai was at a premium of 55 yuan/ton over the futures, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a discount of 16.8 US dollars/ton [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium fluctuated and declined. In August 2025, China's refined copper imports were 307,000 tons, and the net imports were 270,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 2.53 million tons, and the net imports were 2.071 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [11]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and the spot trading gradually improved as the market price first rose and then fell. In the scrap copper market, the domestic refined - scrap spread narrowed, reducing the substitution advantage of scrap copper. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded after the National Day holiday [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: The price of the main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.77% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), while LME copper rose 2.25% to 10,607 US dollars/ton [21]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price data of various copper products such as electrolytic copper, copper materials, and recycled copper are provided, showing price changes over different time points [23]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: On Friday, the spot copper in East China was at a premium of 55 yuan/ton over the futures. The LME's Cash/3M premium first strengthened and then weakened, reporting a discount of 16.8 US dollars/ton on Friday. The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) declined [26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough smelting fee (TC) for imported copper concentrates slightly declined to - 41.0 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China stabilized, still having a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [34]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: No specific analysis content is provided in the text. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import loss of copper first widened and then narrowed [39]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges was 561,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 100,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons. The decrease in the Shanghai Futures Exchange's inventory came from Jiangsu and Guangdong, while the inventory in Shanghai increased. The number of copper warehouse receipts increased by 12,885 to 42,849 tons. The LME inventory decreased, with the decrease coming from Asian and European warehouses, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts declined [42][45][48]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output**: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper output decreased month - on - month in September 2025, and it is expected to continue to decline in October. According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in August 2025, the domestic refined copper output was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, and the cumulative output from January to August was 9.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [53]. - **Import and Export Situation**: In August 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. The cumulative imports from January to August were 20.054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 425,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The import volume of anode copper was 62,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%. The import volume of refined copper was 307,000 tons, and the net import volume was 270,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. The export volume of refined copper was 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 81,000 tons. The import volume of recycled copper was 179,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [56][59][62][68][71]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs both rebounded in September, indicating a continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The manufacturing sentiment of major overseas economies has weakened marginally, with the manufacturing PMIs of the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, and India all declining [78]. - **Downstream Industry Production Data**: In August, the year - on - year production of automobiles, air conditioners, refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of color TVs, washing machines, AC motors, and freezers decreased. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year production of power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors increased, while that of color TVs and freezers decreased [81]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to August, domestic real estate data remained weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all declining year - on - year, and the decline rates all widened. The national real estate climate index continued to decline in August [84]. - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates**: The operating rate of various downstream copper - related enterprises such as refined copper rod, scrap copper rod, enameled wire, wire and cable, copper tube, brass rod, copper strip, and copper foil enterprises showed different trends in September and expected trends in October [87][90][93][96]. - **Refined - Scrap Spread**: No specific analysis content is provided in the text. 3.6 Capital Side - **Shanghai Copper Positions**: The total position of Shanghai copper decreased by 95,302 to 1,061,152 lots (bilateral), and the position of the near - month 2511 contract was 287,706 lots (bilateral) [104]. - **Foreign Fund Positions**: As of September 23, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 12.3%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds declined (as of October 10) [107].

Group 1: Trade Relations and Economic Impact - China has implemented export controls on rare earths and related technologies, responding to U.S. threats of increased tariffs and export restrictions[2] - China dominates 70% of global rare earth mining and 93% of rare earth permanent magnet production, leveraging this advantage in trade negotiations[3] - The U.S. economy is facing significant challenges, including a slowdown due to tariffs, a cooling labor market, and political divisions leading to government shutdowns[4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - During the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, domestic travel reached 888 million trips, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6% and 1.0% respectively[16] - Consumer spending in related industries grew by 4.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate has declined compared to previous holidays, indicating a need for further stimulus measures[21] - The automotive sector remains in a low growth range, with retail and wholesale sales showing minimal year-on-year changes[30]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing US-China economic and trade tensions are escalating, drawing global market attention, with both countries implementing export controls and tariffs on each other's entities and goods [1] Group 1: US Actions - The US Department of Commerce has added multiple Chinese entities to its export control "entity list" [1] - Starting from October 14, the US will impose port service fees on vessels owned or operated by Chinese companies, Chinese-built ships, and vessels with Chinese nationality [1] Group 2: China's Response - In retaliation, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has placed foreign entities, including those involved in anti-drone technology, on an unreliable entity list [1] - China will implement export control measures on superhard materials and rare earths, in coordination with the General Administration of Customs [1] Group 3: Focus Areas - The aviation and semiconductor sectors have emerged as key areas of contention in the ongoing US-China trade dispute [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead has decreased slightly, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the news from the Federal Reserve and takes profits, the market shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,090 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread for Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest is 93,632 lots, down 1,182 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 541 lots, up 261 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 38,160 tons, down 3,450 tons; the SHFE inventory is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,002.5 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 219,725 tons, down 250 tons [2]. b. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) spread is - 40.08 dollars/ton, up 2.05 dollars [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) price is 16,830 yuan/ton, unchanged; the number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.59 tons, unchanged; the processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 0.5 thousand tons, up 1.3 thousand tons; the global lead ore output is 395.9 thousand tons, up 15.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 13.48 tons, up 1.27 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,091.07 yuan/ton, down 23.22 yuan [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 49,680 thousand units, up 1,925 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,075 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 2,188.73 points, up 55.3 points; the monthly automobile output is 275.24 tons, up 24.24 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 133.3 tons, up 15.7 tons [2]. f. Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rates have been too high for too long and the US will enter an easing cycle; FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of rate cuts due to inflation concerns; San Francisco Fed President Daly thinks further rate cuts may be needed; the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars to 15% since August 1, 2025; the US has launched a 232 - clause investigation on imported medical devices and industrial machinery; the Kremlin criticizes Trump for trying to force the world to buy US oil and gas at higher prices; the "Fed whisperer" indicates that Powell's remarks suggest further rate cuts may be possible; Sino - US economic and trade negotiations have made initial progress [2]. g. View Summary - The Fed's news has opened up rate - cut space, which has a positive impact on the market sentiment; on the supply side, some primary lead smelters are in maintenance, the raw material market is in tight balance, and the recycled lead production is restricted; on the demand side, the traditional consumption peak season is approaching, the demand in emerging fields is good, but the overall demand is still in a slow - recovery stage; the overall inventory has decreased, indicating that demand has effectively reduced inventory [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead has decreased slightly, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the news from the Federal Reserve and takes profits, the market shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,090 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 3 - month lead quote on LME is 2,002.5 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars [3]. - The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 93,632 lots, down 1,182 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 541 lots, up 261 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 38,160 tons, down 3,450 tons [3]. - The inventory of SHFE is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME lead inventory is 219,725 tons, down 250 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 16,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 40.08 dollars/ton, up 2.05 dollars [3]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,830 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [3]. - The average operating rate of primary lead is 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,900 tons, unchanged [3]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output is 395,900 tons, up 15,700 tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of lead ore is 134,800 tons, up 12,700 tons; the domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory average is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons [3]. - The average market price of waste batteries is 10,091.07 yuan/ton, down 23.22 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 49,680,000 units, up 1,925,000 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,075 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 2,188.73 points, up 55.3 points; the monthly output of automobiles is 2,752,400 units, up 242,400 units [3]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,333,000 units, up 157,000 units [3]. 3.6 Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rate has been too high for too long, and the US will enter an easing cycle. Powell should have signaled a 100 - 150 basis - point rate cut [3]. - FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of rate cuts due to inflation concerns; Daly believes that economic growth and labor have slowed, and inflation is lower than expected, so further rate cuts may be needed [3]. - The US has officially lowered the tariff on EU cars to 15% since August 1, 2025, and the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations have made initial progress [3]. - The US has launched a 232 - clause investigation on imported medical devices and industrial machinery [3]. - The Kremlin criticizes Trump for trying to force the world to buy US oil and gas at a higher price [3]. 3.7 View Summary - Some primary lead smelting enterprises in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other regions are in the centralized maintenance stage, the raw material market is in a tight - balance state, and the processing fee of lead concentrate continues to decline [3]. - The production of primary lead continues to decline. The release of recycled lead production capacity has slowed down due to environmental inspections and lower waste battery recycling efficiency [3]. - The demand for lead - acid batteries is relatively stable, the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is warming up, and the demand for lead in emerging energy storage fields is showing a good trend [3]. - Although the downstream purchasing atmosphere has improved marginally, the overall demand has not increased significantly and is still in a slow recovery stage [3]. - Both domestic and foreign lead inventories have decreased, and the overall inventory has declined, indicating that demand has effectively driven inventory reduction [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead decreased slightly, demand increased slowly, and after the market digested the Fed's news and took profits, it showed a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to buy on dips for lead prices [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,065 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread was - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the open interest was 94,814 lots, down 4,144 lots; the net position of the top 20 was 541 lots, up 261 lots; the warehouse receipts were 38,160 tons, down 3,450 tons; the SHFE inventory was 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,999 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars; the LME lead inventory was 219,975 tons, down 1,700 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 lead spot price was 16,950 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 lead spot price was 17,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract was - 115 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME lead cash - 3 spread was - 42.13 dollars/ton, up 3.03 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 37.88%, up 4.55 percentage points; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.59 tons, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was - 0.5 kilotons, up 1.3 kilotons; the global lead mine output was 395.9 kilotons, up 15.7 kilotons; the lead ore import volume was 13.48 tons, up 1.27 tons [2] Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the refined lead export volume was 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of waste batteries was 10,091.07 yuan/ton, down 23.22 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 49,680 units, up 1,925 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy was 20,075 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Shenwan industry index of batteries was 2,133.43 points, down 24.05 points; the monthly automobile output was 275.24 tons, up 24.24 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output was 133.3 tons, up 15.7 tons [2] Industry News - Fed Chair Powell was cautious about future rate cuts, and the dollar strengthened. He said there were risks in employment and inflation and avoided giving a clear signal on whether to cut rates in October. The "Fed whisperer" pointed out that Powell's remarks indicated that interest rates were still too tight, which might open the door for further rate cuts. Sino - US economic and trade negotiations made initial progress, which had a positive impact on market sentiment [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, some primary lead smelters entered the maintenance stage, the raw material market was in a tight balance, and the processing fee of lead concentrate continued to decline. The production of primary lead decreased, and the capacity release of recycled lead slowed down due to environmental inspections and low waste battery recycling efficiency. On the demand side, the demand for lead - acid batteries was stable, the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season was approaching, and the demand in emerging energy storage fields was good. However, the spot trading was average when prices rose, and downstream enterprises were still waiting and seeing [2] Prompt Attention - No news on this day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead has slightly decreased, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the Fed's news and takes profits, it shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,125 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,003 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar [2]. - The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 100,923 lots, up 4,528 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 72 lots, up 960 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt is 47,289 tons, down 2,086 tons [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME lead inventory is 220,300 tons, down 2,375 tons [2]. - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,260 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The basis of the lead main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 43.72 dollars/ton, up 0.33 dollars [2]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,970 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2]. - The average starting rate of primary lead is 81.52%, down 1.04 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,900 tons, down 1,900 tons [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/thousand tons, unchanged; the global lead mine output is 395,900 tons, up 15,700 tons [2]. - The import volume of lead concentrate is 134,800 tons, up 12,700 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the export volume of refined lead is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons [2]. - The export volume of batteries is 49.68 million, up 1.925 million; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 2,125.6 points, down 12.42 points; the automobile output is 2.51 million, down 298,600 [2]. - The output of new energy vehicles is 1.333 million, up 157,000 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Republican appropriation bill passed by the US House of Representatives failed to pass in the Senate; to avoid a government shutdown, the Democratic leader in the US Congress called for an immediate meeting with Trump [2]. - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that two more rate cuts this year are appropriate [2]. - The US Chief Justice asked Fed Governor Cook to respond to Trump by September 25 [2]. - US senators are seeking to increase pressure on Russia by sanctioning the "shadow fleet" [2]. - The European Commission has passed the 19th sanctions package against Russia, lowering the crude oil price cap to $47.6 per barrel and proposing to ban the import of Russian liquefied natural gas on January 1, 2027, one year earlier than the original plan [2]. 3.7 Inventory - Both foreign and domestic lead inventories have decreased, as well as the number of warehouse receipts. Overall, the inventory has declined, indicating that demand has effectively driven inventory reduction [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing attractiveness of Chinese assets for both domestic and foreign institutions amid the Federal Reserve's resumption of the interest rate cut cycle, which is seen as a "risk management" approach to support economic growth [1] - As of September 21, 2025, 729 foreign institutions have conducted a total of 6,923 investigations into A-share companies, with over 400 investigations occurring in September alone, indicating strong foreign interest in Chinese assets [1] - The CSI A500 Index, an important component of the A-share broad-based index system, is positioned as a key tool for capturing overall opportunities in Chinese assets, with the A500 ETF from Huatai-PB seeing a capital inflow of 1.033 billion yuan over the last ten trading days [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF closely tracks the CSI A500 Index, which features broad coverage and balanced industry representation, focusing on leading companies in the third-tier industries, potentially benefiting from China's modernization process [2] - As of September 19, 2025, the top five industries represented in the index are electronics, power equipment, banking, pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials, showcasing a balanced industry allocation with both growth and value attributes [2] - The A500 ETF and its linked funds have a low fee structure, with management and custody fees at 0.15% and 0.05% per year, respectively, making them among the lowest in the A-share market [2][3] Group 3 - The A500 ETF has a cumulative unit net value of 1.2101 yuan as of September 19, 2025, making it one of the few ETFs tracking the CSI A500 Index to exceed this value [2] - Huatai-PB Fund, the manager of the A500 ETF, is one of the first ETF managers in China with over 18 years of experience, and it manages the largest ETF in the A-share market, the CSI 300 ETF, with a scale exceeding 566 billion yuan [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract dropped 19.25 to close at 1026 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.84%; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 65 to close at 3014 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.11%; the South China soybean meal spot price dropped 30 to close at 2950 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.0%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract declined 9 to close at 2522 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.36%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price dropped 20 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.77% [4][7]. - The decline of US soybeans was mainly due to demand concerns, and the drop of soybean meal was mainly because of sufficient spot supply and weak basis operation. The market expected a possible Sino - US agricultural product procurement agreement, leading to the downward oscillation of Dalian soybean meal. Rapeseed meal was relatively resistant to decline as it continued the de - stocking rhythm and future supply was gradually tightening [4][7]. - Precipitation in Brazilian production areas is conducive to sowing. The pressure of US soybean harvest is emerging, the export sales progress is slow, and demand concerns lead to the decline of the external market. The high operating rate of oil mills, high soybean meal inventory, and sufficient spot supply. Although the feed enterprises have inventory replenishment needs before the double festivals, it is expected to be limited. The procurement of old - crop Brazilian soybeans has slowed down, the premium has declined, and the support of import cost has weakened. The Sino - US agricultural product procurement agreement has not been confirmed, and the follow - up Sino - US economic and trade progress should be monitored. Recently, Dalian soybean meal has stopped falling and is expected to oscillate in a short - term range [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract price dropped from 1045.25 to 1026 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.84%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans decreased from 490 to 484 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.22%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans dropped from 466 to 459 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.50%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk decreased by 3.08 yuan per ton; the soybean meal 01 contract price fell from 3079 to 3014 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.11%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract price declined from 2531 to 2522 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.36%; the East China soybean meal spot price dropped from 3000 to 2940 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.00%; the South China soybean meal spot price decreased from 2980 to 2950 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.01%; the South China spot - futures price difference increased by 35 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of September 14, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 63%, the harvest rate was 5%, the defoliation rate was 41%, and about 36% of the planting areas were affected by drought [8]. - As of the week of September 11, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 92.3 tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 1028 tons. China has not purchased new - crop US soybeans. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 3.14 dollars per bushel. The NOPA monthly report showed that the US soybean oil inventory in August 2025 was 1.245 billion pounds, and the soybean crushing volume was 189.81 million bushels [9]. - As of last Thursday, the sowing of Brazilian 2025/2026 soybeans was 0.12% of the total estimated area. The soybean export volume in September is expected to rise to 753 tons. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 733.2 tons, the soybean meal inventory was 116.44 tons, the unexecuted contract was 588.7 tons, and the national port soybean inventory was 968.6 tons [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the daily average trading volume of national soybean meal was 132,540 tons, the daily average pick - up volume was 198,284 tons, the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.4275 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 9.42 days [11]. Industry News - As of last Thursday, the sowing of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans was 0.12% of the total estimated area, slightly higher than 0.06% of the same period last year. The expected output of the new season is 180 million tons. In the Toledo area of Brazil, about 4,900 hectares of soybeans have been planted, accounting for 1% of the planned area [12]. - As of the week of September 7, 2025, the Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 1.5% to 47,200 tons. From August 1 to September 7, 2025, the export volume was 529,500 tons, a decrease of 53.4% compared with the same period last year. The commercial inventory was 516,200 tons [13]. - The estimated output of Brazilian 2024/25 soybeans remained at 170.3 million tons, the estimated export volume in 2025 remained at 109.5 million tons, and the estimated crushing volume in 2025 was raised to 58.5 million tons [13]. - Ukrainian rapeseed exports have been blocked for two consecutive weeks due to disputes over customs documents after a 10% export tariff was imposed [13]. - The estimated output of Australian 2025/26 rapeseed is 6.1 million tons, an increase of 3.4%. The estimated output of EU and UK rapeseed in 2025 is 21.6 million tons, higher than the previous estimate [14]. - The estimated output of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is expected to increase by 4.1% to 2 million tons, with a 6.2% increase in yield per unit area and a 2.0% decrease in harvest area [14]. - The CONAB agency estimated that the Brazilian 2025/2026 soybean output will increase by 3.6% to 177.67 million tons, and the planting area will be 49.08 million hectares [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, soybean meal main contract trend, etc., to visually present relevant data [16][17][20][22].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the state of U.S.-China relations and its implications for the capital markets, focusing on trade negotiations and geopolitical dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Normalization of U.S.-China High-Level Dialogue** The normalization of high-level dialogues between the U.S. and China suggests that negotiations will become more frequent, potentially occurring quarterly or biannually, which may help both sides reach a consensus [1][2][6] 2. **Shift in U.S. Policy Towards China** The U.S. may be shifting its policy from containment to strategic stability, with a focus on ensuring security in the Western Hemisphere, which could alter its strategy in the Asia-Pacific region [1][15] 3. **China's Economic Resilience** China has demonstrated economic resilience in response to the trade war, prompting the U.S. to reassess the balance of power between the two nations and possibly adjust its policy towards China [1][28] 4. **U.S. Treasury Secretary's Approach** U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson's pragmatic and flexible approach to negotiations, focusing on debt and dollar issues rather than advocating for strategic decoupling, may lead to more balanced U.S.-China economic discussions [1][11] 5. **Impact of New U.S. Ambassador to China** The arrival of new U.S. Ambassador to China, Pompeo, has improved high-level interactions and communication between the two countries, positively influencing the development of U.S.-China relations [1][12] 6. **Future High-Level Meetings** Upcoming events, such as the APEC summit in October and Trump's planned visit to China in early 2026, are expected to significantly impact U.S.-China relations [1][6][7] 7. **Current State of U.S.-China Trade Negotiations** The trade negotiations are in two phases, with the first phase focusing on tariffs and the second phase addressing broader issues like investment and technology. A new consensus has emerged, including a joint venture for TikTok in the U.S. [1][9] 8. **China's Position on TikTok** China has made concessions regarding TikTok but demands improvements in the business environment for Chinese companies in the U.S. as a condition for moving forward with the TikTok agreement [1][5] 9. **U.S. Economic Challenges** The U.S. faces economic challenges, including rising unemployment and inflation, which may influence Trump's policies and focus on economic improvement ahead of the midterm elections [1][17] 10. **China's Military Display and Its Impact** The recent military display by China has led the U.S. to reassess its military and economic strategies, indicating a potential shift from deterrence to seeking strategic stability [1][27] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Diplomatic Language Changes** The absence of the term "at the request" in recent communications reflects a subtle shift in diplomatic language, indicating a desire to avoid implying that the U.S. is dependent on China [1][3] 2. **Internal U.S. Coordination Issues** There are indications of poor internal coordination within the U.S. government, as evidenced by conflicting actions following negotiations, which could complicate future discussions [1][14] 3. **Potential for Future Cooperation** The upcoming leaders' meeting is expected to yield specific outcomes, particularly in areas like drug trafficking cooperation, which could enhance bilateral relations [1][19] 4. **Investment Opportunities in Renewable Energy** China has a comparative advantage in the renewable energy sector, which may see increased investment opportunities as the U.S. government may be more open to such investments to create jobs and generate tax revenue [1][29][30] 5. **Long-Term Economic Planning in China** China is preparing for its next five-year plan, which historically has been completed ahead of schedule, indicating a proactive approach to economic management [1][16]