Economic Growth Outlook - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.2% year-on-year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [1] - Economists predict that in 2026, China's GDP growth will continue to recover, with an expected growth rate of approximately 5.0% [2][4] Key Economic Drivers - The main drivers for economic growth in 2026 include stable export growth and a rebound in investment, particularly in infrastructure, supported by government policies [4][5] - The real estate market is expected to continue its bottoming process, with overall market risks considered manageable [4][8] Export and Trade Dynamics - Despite challenges from US-China trade tensions, China's exports are anticipated to maintain resilience, supported by new demands from emerging markets and global investments in AI [7] - Economists express cautious optimism regarding export stability, influenced by the global economic environment and potential easing of trade conflicts [7][6] Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate sector is projected to remain in a deep adjustment phase, with investment in real estate expected to decline by 15.9% year-on-year in 2025 [8] - Economists believe that while the real estate market will continue to face downward pressure, the rate of decline may gradually narrow due to previous policy measures [9][8] Price Level Expectations - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.5% year-on-year in 2026, while Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by 0.9% [10] - The overall price levels are anticipated to remain low, with potential for gradual recovery influenced by supply and demand dynamics [12][10] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain at 4%, consistent with 2025, with slight increases in special bonds and local government debt [14] - Economists forecast 1-2 interest rate cuts in 2026, with a reduction of 0.1-0.2 percentage points, and a potential decrease in the reserve requirement ratio [14][15] Policy Focus Areas - The policy focus for 2026 will include expanding domestic demand, strengthening industries, and promoting consumption through various subsidies and support measures [16] - Key areas of investment will include infrastructure, technology advancement, and stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies [16][5]

Group 1 - Southeast Asian countries are caught in a complex situation due to US-China trade tensions, relying on Chinese supply chains while facing US tariffs [1][11] - The "China plus one" strategy has led multinational companies to shift assembly operations to Southeast Asia to avoid US tariffs, but this still ties them to Chinese supply chains [5][6] - Southeast Asia's dependence on Chinese supply chains is critical for its assembly industries, which are essential for exports to the US market [8][10] Group 2 - The tightening of US policies under the Trump administration has exacerbated the challenges faced by Southeast Asian countries, pushing them towards a more extreme position of choosing sides [3][15] - New US policies classify products as "Made in China" if they rely on Chinese components, imposing additional tariffs and creating uncertainty for Southeast Asian exporters [17][20] - The economic growth in Southeast Asia is showing signs of fragility, with industries like textiles and electronics facing significant risks due to reliance on US markets and Chinese supply chains [22][23] Group 3 - The US has pressured Southeast Asian countries to choose between trade agreements with the US or China, complicating their ability to maintain a balanced approach [29][31] - Countries like Indonesia have rejected US demands, while smaller nations like Cambodia face difficult choices between losing access to the US market or compromising their strategic autonomy with China [32][35] - The path to industrial upgrading for Southeast Asia is fraught with challenges, as they struggle to break free from dependence on Chinese supply chains while needing to enhance their technological capabilities [34]

2025年12月19日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 市场表现：周一贵金属价格继续高位震荡。 金 属 基本面：美国通胀超预期放缓，11 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6%，创 2021 年以来最低。美联储主席最热人选哈 塞特称 CPI 报告好得令人震惊，美联储有很大空间可以降息；美国上周首申人数回落至 22.4 万人，扭转此前 激增趋势；英国央行"鹰派"降息 25 个基点，5 比 4 惊险过关，称进一步判断宽松将更艰难；德国上调明年 发债规模至 5120 亿欧元，为基建和国防输血；欧央行连续第四次按兵不动，重申通胀将在中期回归 2%目标， 未释放明确宽松指引。拉加德暗示欧央行不急行动。国内黄金 ETF 小幅流出，COMEX 黄金库存为 1121.8 吨， +2.5 吨；上期所黄金库存为 91.7 吨，维持不变；黄金 ETF 持仓为 1052.5 吨，维持不变；伦敦 11 月黄金库 存 8906 吨，+48 吨；COMEX 白银库存为 14093.8 吨，+7 吨；上期所白银库存为 912 吨，+0.2 吨；金交所 上周库存 714.4，+21 吨，iShares 白银 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The performance of the subjective CTA strategy line in 2026 will be better than that in 2025. The decline in Sino-US macro uncertainty and the rise in commodity volatility in a low-interest rate environment are favorable for subjective CTA managers in the commodity sector [1][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Subjective CTA Review 1.1 Subjective CTA Strategy Net Value Performance - In 2025, the net value performance of managers in the observation pool was weaker than that in the same period of 2024. Due to the interference of Sino-US trade friction uncertainty, the trading certainty of managers based on industrial supply and demand research declined significantly, resulting in weakened position-holding confidence and reduced income [7]. - In terms of sectors, black sector managers were relatively prominent in 2025. In the first half of the year, the cost collapse of coal drove the downward trend of black sector prices, and some black managers obtained trading opportunities with industrial and macro resonance. In the second half of the year, the divergence between the futures market sentiment and the spot market led to a significant decline in the net value of black sector managers. Agricultural product managers were greatly affected by foreign trade frictions, and the predictability of agricultural product imports was extremely poor, which affected their income acquisition [9][10]. - In terms of scale, there was little difference in the income performance of managers of different scales in 2025. The large-scale multi-sector managers did not show more obvious investment research advantages, and the small-scale managers did not show more income acquisition ability [14]. 1.2 2025 Subjective CTA Strategy Income Attribution - In 2025, the Nanhua Commodity Index fluctuated throughout the year, and some varieties showed structural differentiation, but the overall commodity index did not show a trending market. In the first half of the year, affected by Sino-US trade friction, the commodity index was under pressure to decline. After June, with the stalemate of Sino-US trade friction, "anti-involution" became a new theme, driving the commodity index to stabilize and rebound [17][18]. - The annual commodity index fluctuation and subjective CTA income acquisition in 2025 were mainly divided into two stages: - From January to May 2025, driven by the uncertainty brought by Sino-US trade friction, precious metals continued the upward trend at the end of 2024, with the London Spot Gold Index rising by 25.5% from January to May. At the same time, domestic industrial products, mainly domestic demand, weakened, with the CSI Steel Index falling by 13% from January to May. Managers mainly trading precious metals and black sector managers who shorted coal and coke or held positions such as buying ore and shorting coal obtained good income [20]. - From June to December 2025, Sino-US trade friction entered a stalemate stage, and the market generally expected that there would be no more negative news. "Anti-involution" became the core driving force in domestic industrial policies. There was a great divergence between subjective CTA private equity managers and industrial participants on whether "anti-involution" could be compared with the supply-side reform in 2016 - 2021. The net value of black sector managers declined significantly after June. In the agricultural product sector, the income of some managers was damaged due to the decline in palm oil prices. In the non-ferrous sector, managers using unilateral trading strategies performed better than those using arbitrage trading strategies [24][25]. 2. Subjective CTA Strategy Industry Ecological Changes 2.1 Head Managers Iterate towards Multi-Asset and Multi-Strategy - Head managers are rapidly iterating towards multi-asset and multi-strategy. The reasons may include limited capital capacity of single-asset futures trading, quarterly income convergence of single-commodity assets, increasing linkage between the equity market and the commodity market, and the need to reduce the impact of single-asset judgment errors on the net value and obtain beta opportunities of other assets [30]. - Expanding the ability circle does not necessarily lead to a significant decline in income. For commodity managers aiming at the asset management path, expanding the trading ability of other sectors can form a positive iteration between asset management scale and investment research [31]. 2.2 Start-up Private Equity Shows Strong Drawdown Control Ability in the Early Stage - In 2025, start-up private equity showed strong drawdown control ability in the early stage. Small-scale managers' weekly drawdown control ability was not weaker than that of large-scale managers. Domestic subjective futures private equity asset management has an obvious sample effect, and small-scale managers are clear about the subsequent asset management path and pay attention to controlling drawdown to improve investors' holding experience [33]. 2.3 In the Market with a Diverse Structure, Single-Industry Logic is Slightly Weak in Trading, Requiring Managers to Have More Comprehensive Abilities - The pricing ability of industrial logic in commodity futures has been weakened, and non-industrial logic forces such as macro strategies and multi-asset strategies have entered the market, making it difficult for teams relying solely on industrial logic to trade [35]. - From the perspective of capital allocation, industry is still the basis for studying subjective CTA managers, but managers should not have obvious shortcomings in macro judgment, trading, and risk control. Research determines the winning rate, trading and risk control determine the profit-loss ratio, and excellent traders are not necessarily excellent asset management managers [35][36]. 3. 2026 Subjective CTA Outlook - The decline in Sino-US macro uncertainty will make the commodity's own supply and demand the dominant factor, which is beneficial to subjective CTA managers based on industrial supply and demand research. There may be industrial contradictions in coking coal, iron ore in the black sector, and lithium carbonate in the new energy sector [37]. - In a low-interest rate environment, the rise in commodity volatility is conducive to managers to create better income. In 2026, the domestic low-interest rate environment will continue, and the main line of commodity trading may shift from precious metals in 2025 to basic bulk commodities [38]. - Subjective CTA managers are extending towards multi-asset and multi-strategy to provide better holding experience for investors. This change also makes the scale of subjective CTA managers further included in the capital allocation options [39].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of China's export growth despite concerns over declining demand from the U.S. market, attributing this to China's diversified export strategy and strong demand from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) [1][2]. Group 1: Export Diversification - China's export structure is diversifying, reducing reliance on the U.S. market, with the share of U.S. imports from China dropping to the lowest level since 2017, at only 9.4% in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The share of exports to BRI countries is increasing, with the second quarter of 2025 seeing a historical high of 16.1% in export share, indicating a structural shift in China's export dynamics [2][4]. Group 2: Global Demand and Investment - Non-U.S. countries are expected to maintain strong import demand, driven by their own industrialization and infrastructure needs, which supports China's export growth [3][4]. - The "Tariff 2.0" policy has catalyzed a new wave of global industrial migration, with Chinese capital goods exports increasing significantly to BRI regions, reflecting robust investment demand [3][5]. Group 3: Resilience Against U.S. Market Fluctuations - Historical patterns show that non-U.S. countries can experience independent import growth, even when U.S. demand is weak, as seen in 2017-2018, providing a stable foundation for China's exports [4]. - The ongoing industrial investments in BRI countries are not affected by U.S. consumer market fluctuations, enhancing the resilience of China's export performance [4][8]. Group 4: Consumer Market Growth - China's manufacturing sector is gaining traction in consumer markets of BRI countries, with exports to Africa showing significant growth, such as a 54.8% increase in motor vehicle exports by September 2025 [5]. - The shift from a focus on cost advantages to technological advantages in Chinese manufacturing is aligning with the upgrading consumer demands in BRI countries, fostering a dual-driven export model of capital and consumer goods [5][6]. Group 5: Long-term Strategic Outlook - China's long-term commitment to the BRI has strengthened its ties with global supply chains, making it less vulnerable to U.S. trade policies and enhancing its export resilience [6][7]. - The gradual easing of global trade uncertainties is expected to further boost investment demand in BRI countries, solidifying China's export growth momentum [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the tin price showed an overall upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the tight supply situation at the mine end is expected to ease, with a likely front - tight and back - loose pattern. The smelting end's operating rate is expected to gradually recover, and processing fees may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue to grow in 2026, benefiting from the semiconductor industry. The tin price in 2026 is expected to remain strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [2][90][92]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Tin Market Review 3.1.1 Long - term Tin Price Trend Review - Since 2011, the tin price has gone through eight stages: a continuous decline from the second half of 2011 to the end of 2015 due to global economic concerns; a sharp rise from the end of 2015 to the end of 2016 due to supply - side structural reforms; an oscillatory trend from early 2017 to April 2019 as supply exceeded demand; a continuous decline from April 2019 to March 2020 due to trade disputes and the COVID - 19 pandemic; a new high from April 2021 to March 2022 due to loose policies and supply - demand imbalance; a sharp fall from March to October 2022 due to Fed rate hikes; an oscillatory trend from November 2022 to March 2024 under the influence of supply - side disturbances and a falling US dollar index; and a strong rise and subsequent high - level oscillation from March 2024 to the present [10][11][13]. 3.1.2 2025 Tin Market Review - **Tin Futures Price Review**: The tin price in 2025 showed a pattern of rising first, then falling, and then rising again. In the first quarter, it rose due to tight mine - end supply. In mid - March, the civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo pushed up bullish sentiment. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, there was a systemic risk, followed by a narrow - range oscillation. In September, the price rose again due to supply issues and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal tin smuggling [15]. - **Tin Spot and Premium/Discount**: In 2025, the domestic tin spot was at a discount, while the LME tin premium/discount hovered around 0 [19]. 3.2 Macro - analysis - In 2025, the eurozone economy was relatively sluggish, with controllable inflation and a loose European Central Bank. The US economy had some resilience, but its growth momentum weakened, and the risk of recession increased. The Chinese economy showed resilience, but faced deflationary pressure. In 2026, the inflation in Europe and the US is expected to gradually decline, and major central banks are likely to continue the rate - cut cycle. The US economy may see moderate growth, while the eurozone's growth may remain low. China's macro - economic policies are expected to be more proactive, and the inflation environment may gradually improve [20]. 3.3 Tin Market Supply Analysis 3.3.1 Tin Ore Supply May Be Front - tight and Back - loose - In 2025, there were many disruptions in tin ore supply, such as the suspension of mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. From 2025 - 2026, new projects are few, and the ore increment is limited. In 2026, the global tin ore production is expected to increase slightly by about 4,500 metal tons, reaching about 360,000 tons. China's tin ore production has been gradually decreasing in recent years, but showed a small increase in 2025. China's tin ore imports are expected to gradually increase in 2026. The tin ore price showed an upward - trending oscillation in 2025, and the processing fee was at a low level [24][25][26]. 3.3.2 Refined Tin Production Will Maintain Growth - In 2025, the domestic refined tin production of sample enterprises increased year - on - year. Overseas, there was a supply shortage in the first 9 months of 2025. In general, the tight mine - end supply in the past two years affected the smelting capacity. The smelting operating rate is expected to gradually rebound in 2026, with a slightly higher growth rate than in 2025. In 2025, the refined tin import window was mostly closed, and China became a net exporter of refined tin. The short - term import window is difficult to open [38][42][43]. 3.4 Tin Market Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Tin - plated Sheet Production Declined While Exports Increased - In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. In 2025, it declined significantly due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and weak domestic demand. However, exports increased, mainly due to strong external demand and China's cost - advantage. But the future export situation may be affected by the substitution of new materials and trade - relief investigations [47][48]. 3.4.2 Lead - acid Battery Production Increased Significantly - In recent years, the rapid development of the e - bike, express delivery, and takeout industries supported the consumption of lead - acid batteries. In 2025, the production growth rate accelerated, but exports declined year - on - year [56]. 3.4.3 The Growth Cycle of Electronic Products May Be Near the End - In 2023, the downward cycle of electronic products turned around. In 2024, they showed positive growth. In 2025, the growth rate of computer and smartphone production slowed down. In 2026, the growth rate of production and sales of computers and mobile phones is expected to slow down but remain positive [60]. 3.4.4 Integrated Circuit Production Will Maintain Rapid Growth - Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. The growth rate accelerated in the second half of the second quarter and then declined in the third - quarter off - season. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, the production and sales of integrated circuits are expected to maintain high - speed growth in the medium and long term [63]. 3.4.5 The Photovoltaic Industry Is in a Transition from the High - speed Development Stage - In 2024 and 2025, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly. However, the industry faces over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and capacity growth will be more orderly. The global new - installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to reach 665GW, and the new tin demand is expected to reach about 43,000 tons [66]. 3.4.6 The New - energy Vehicle Industry Maintains Growth - In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Due to the cost - advantage and policy support, the sales will continue to grow. In the long - term, the growth rate will slow down, but the marginal increment is still significant. In 2026, the production and sales growth rate is expected to be between 15 - 20% [71]. 3.5 Tin Inventory First Rose and Then Fell - In 2024, the inventories of the two major exchanges showed different trends. In 2025, the SHFE inventory first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. The LME inventory decreased first and then increased. As of December 1, the total inventory of the two exchanges was at a medium level. The LME tin premium/discount narrowed in 2025, and the import window was intermittently open [74][77]. 3.6 Global Refined Tin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - Since 2018, the global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months. In 2025, the supply was tight in the first half and loose in the second half, while demand continued to grow. In 2026, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will also grow moderately, maintaining a tight - balance situation [80]. 3.7 Seasonal and Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Seasonal Analysis - Historically, the tin price is weakest in March, and the probability of decline is high in March, August, September, and October. It often performs strongly in January, July, and December. In 2025, the tin price showed a wide - range oscillation, with most months showing a decline except April [83]. 3.7.2 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line of the Shanghai Tin main contract, in March 2025, the price broke through the 270,000 - yuan mark and then fell back. In August, it accelerated its rise, filled the gap after the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and broke through the previous high of the year. In the short - term, the upward momentum is not exhausted, and it may approach the historical high in 2022 [87]. 3.8 LME Position Analysis - In the past three years, the tin price has maintained a wide - range oscillation. Investment funds generally held a net - long position, which increased significantly in the second half of 2025. Investment companies, credit institutions, and commercial enterprises held different positions. As of November 28, 2025, investment companies and credit institutions had a net - long position of 2,309 lots, investment funds had a net - long position of 5,002 lots, and commercial enterprises had a net - long position of - 6,339 lots [89]. 3.9 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - In 2025, the tin price showed an upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the supply at the mine end is expected to ease, the smelting operating rate may recover, and the processing fee may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector is expected to continue to grow. The tin price in 2026 is expected to be strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [90][92]. 3.10 Related Stocks - Stocks such as Yunnan Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), Xingye Co., Ltd. (603928.SH), Yintai Gold Co., Ltd. (000975.SZ), and others are related to the tin industry. Their stock prices showed different monthly and annual growth rates [93].

宏观：黄金定价的终极属性是什么？20251212 Q&A 黄金市场的历史周期可以分为三个主要阶段，每个阶段都有不同的驱动因素。 第一轮黄金上涨周期始于 2001 年，结束于 2012 年，历时 12 年，涨幅接近 6 倍。这一阶段的主要驱动因素是全球风险事件频发和流动性长期宽松。2001 年的美国经济衰退、911 恐怖袭击事件，以及随后伊拉克战争和金融危机等一 系列事件推动了避险情绪升温，黄金价格不断上涨。此外，黄金 ETF 的诞生也 显著加强了黄金的流动性和投资功能。 第二轮黄金牛市始于次贷危机和欧债危 机爆发期间。2007 年 8 月 9 日法国巴黎银行宣布冻结旗下 3 只对美国次级贷 款存在敞口的投资基金，引发次贷危机；2008 年 9 月雷曼兄弟破产标志着金 融危机全面升级。在此期间，美联储推出零利率政策和多轮量化宽松政策，使 得流动性泛滥、实际利率下行，推动金价快速上涨。到 2011 年三季度末，金 价达到 1,900 美元每盎司高点。 第三轮黄金牛市从 2018 年至今，这一阶段主 要受中美贸易摩擦、去美元化趋势以及地缘政治冲突等因素驱动。特朗普政府 对中国加征关税引发贸易摩擦，美国政策不确定性上 ...

2025年12月15日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 单暂时止盈。 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦反复，美联储货币政策意外转向 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 市场表现：周五夜盘铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 基本面：周五美股大幅走弱，市场讨论甲骨文和博通财报不及预期，风险偏好整体下行。供应端，铜矿紧张 | | | | | 格局延续，周度 TC 继续小幅下滑。精铜依然担忧伦敦挤仓，伦敦注销占比维持在 40%。国内精废价差 | 4400 | | | | 元附近，废铜票点上行 1.5%。 | | | | | 交易策略：观望等待买点。 | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 市场表现：周五电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.91%，收于 22170 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-155 | 元/吨， | | | | LME 价格 2875 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | ...

Summary of Eastern Airlines Logistics Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Eastern Airlines Logistics - **Period**: First three quarters of 2025 Key Financial Metrics - **Net Profit**: 712 million yuan, slightly decreased year-on-year [2][3] - **Fleet Expansion**: Increased cargo aircraft to 18 [2][3] Industry Insights Market Performance - **European Market**: Strong demand with a 17% year-on-year increase in air cargo volume from China to Europe [2][5] - **US Market**: Despite challenges from US tariff policies, cargo volume remained stable due to strategic adjustments [2][5] Strategic Adjustments - **Route Adjustments**: New routes opened to Hanoi, Vietnam, and from Hefei to Europe, enhancing cargo volume [2][3] - **Client Structure**: Adjusted client structure and partnered with tech giants to mitigate tariff impacts [3][5] Future Outlook Capacity and Demand - **Capacity Expansion**: Plans to continue expanding capacity in 2026, anticipating a reduction in US market volatility due to improved trade relations [2][6] - **Market Demand**: Expectation of steady growth in air cargo demand driven by increased Chinese exports [6][33] New Routes - **Chongqing Hub**: New routes from Shanghai via Hong Kong to Chongqing and from Chongqing to Frankfurt, leveraging Chongqing's strategic position [2][7][8] Financial Performance Analysis Revenue and Profit Trends - **Revenue Growth**: Revenue increased quarter-on-quarter, but profits slightly decreased due to rising costs and reduced subsidies [3][12] - **Gross Margin**: Ground service business gross margin declined but recovered to around 40% in Q3 [12][13] Pricing and Cost Dynamics - **Pricing Trends**: Slight decline in freight rates year-on-year, with expectations of stable rates due to supply constraints [16][17] - **Cost Pressures**: Rising costs from fuel prices and operational adjustments impacted profit margins [12][15] Regulatory and Policy Impact Tariff Policies - **US Tariff Changes**: The cancellation of small package exemptions and increased tariffs have affected trade dynamics, but the company has adapted effectively [3][28] - **EU Policy Changes**: Anticipated changes in small value tax policies in the EU expected to have a lesser impact compared to the US [6][9][23] Operational Challenges Supply Constraints - **Capacity Bottlenecks**: Limited new aircraft production and recent incidents affecting cargo aircraft availability have intensified supply constraints [20][21] Future Aircraft Plans - **Aircraft Acquisition**: Plans to introduce 15 new aircraft in 2026, focusing on existing markets and adjusting based on demand [29][30] Conclusion - **Long-term Outlook**: The company maintains a cautiously optimistic view on future air cargo market growth, supported by strategic expansions and resilience in operations [33]

近日，美国贸易代表格里尔在华盛顿的一次会议上公开表示，加拿大和墨西哥不能成为中国等国家的出口中转站。他还进一步提到，美国与中国之间的贸易 规模可能需要缩减，并认为中美之间实体货物贸易下滑25%是朝着正确的方向发展。这一言论引发了外界关注，因为它的背景正好是在另一个重大消息发布 之后。 12月3日，美国财长贝森特确认，中国正在按照贸易协议计划采购1200万吨美国大豆，并表示这一采购将在2026年2月底前完成。贝森特强调，中国 正在认真履行协议中的每一项条款。根据航运数据，至少六艘运载美国大豆的散货船将在12月中旬前抵达墨西哥湾沿岸的码头，这是自大豆贸易因关税战停 滞几个月后，首次出现的大规模出货。路透社的报道指出，中国进口商上月已经订购了近200万吨美国大豆，尽管后续确认的采购量不多，但整体采购进度 仍在推进。 整之间不断磨合。 此次事件的最大意义不仅仅在于大豆采购或某一条表态，而在于它展示了中美贸易走向的复杂性。未来，双方可能在合作框架下稳步推 进，但也会在竞争框架下保持谨慎。中国坚持市场规律，而美国则更注重自身利益。无论外部声音如何变化，这一基本判断不会改变。现实已经证明，合作 能够带来收益，而对抗则会制造 ...