美国天然气期货日内涨超3.00%，现报3.312美元/百万英热。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent price increases of rare earth products by Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel, indicating a bullish outlook for the rare earth market driven by supply constraints and rising demand [2][4]. Price Adjustments - Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announced plans to adjust the price of rare earth concentrate to 19,109 RMB/ton (excluding tax) for Q3 2025, with a price change of 382.18 RMB/ton for every 1% change in REO content [2]. - Over the past year, both companies have repeatedly raised the prices of rare earth concentrates [4]. Performance Forecast - Northern Rare Earth expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a range of 900 million to 960 million RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 1,882.54% to 2,014.71% [7]. - The company also anticipates a non-recurring net profit of 880 million to 940 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 5,538.33% to 5,922.76% [7]. Market Dynamics - The rare earth market has shown improved activity since Q1 2025 due to tighter upstream raw material supply and stimulated downstream consumption, positively impacting Northern Rare Earth's performance [8]. - The company maintains a positive outlook on future rare earth price trends, supported by a full order book at its subsidiary [8]. Industry Context - Rare earth elements are classified into light and heavy rare earths, with heavy rare earths being rarer and more unevenly distributed, primarily concentrated in China [9]. - Recent export controls on heavy rare earths have led to significant price increases in Europe, with price differentials exceeding three times between domestic and international markets [9]. - The demand for rare earths is expected to grow due to industries such as electric vehicles, wind power, and home appliances, with humanoid robots anticipated to become a significant application area for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnets [9][10].

稀土又要涨价了。 7月10日晚间，北方稀土、包钢股份双双公告，拟将2025年第三季度稀土精矿关联交易价格调整为不含税19109元/吨（干量，REO=50%，下同），REO每增 减1%、不含税价格增减382.18元/吨。 值得一提的是，就在昨日（7月9日），北方稀土发布业绩预增公告称，经公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年半年度实现归母净利润9亿元到9.6亿元，与上 年同期相比，将增加8.55亿元到9.15亿元，同比增长1882.54%至2014.71%。预计2025年半年度实现归母扣非净利润8.8亿元到9.4亿元，与上年同期相比，将 增加8.65亿元到9.25亿元，同比增长5538.33%到5922.76%。 记者梳理北方稀土、包钢股份此前公告发现，近一年以来，稀土精矿交易价格持续上调。 | 时间 | 拟调整价格(元/吨) | | --- | --- | | 2025年第三季度 | 19109 | | 2025年第二季度 | 18825 | | 2025年第一季度 | 18618 | | 2024年第四季度 | 17782 | | 2024年第三季度 | 16741 | | 2024年第二季度 | 16792 ...

稀土又要涨价了。 7月10日晚间，北方稀土、包钢股份双双公告，拟将2025年第三季度稀土精矿关联交易价格调整为不含税19109元/吨（干量， REO=50%，下同），REO每增减1%、不含税价格增减382.18元/吨。 记者梳理北方稀土、包钢股份此前公告发现，近一年以来，稀土精矿交易价格持续上调。 | 时间 | 拟调整价格(元/吨) | | --- | --- | | 2025年第三季度 | 19109 | | 2025年第二季度 | 18825 | | 2025年第一季度 | 18618 | | 2024年第四季度 | 17782 | | 2024年第三季度 | 16741 | | 2024年第二季度 | 16792 | | 2024年第一季度 | 20737 | 稀土精矿交易价格（不含税） （数据来源：公告） 值得一提的是，就在昨日（7月9日），北方稀土发布业绩预增公告称，经公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年半年度实现归母净利 润9亿元到9.6亿元，与上年同期相比，将增加8.55亿元到9.15亿元，同比增长1882.54%至2014.71%。预计2025年半年度实现归母 扣非净利润8.8亿元到9.4亿元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", with an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [25] Core Viewpoints - The recent rally in commodity prices is a result of the resonance between supply disruptions and improved expectations, and there are four "suspicious points" in this rally [1] - The divergence between commodity prices and PPI is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound [1] - For the bond market, the significance of monitoring commodity prices lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors. There is a risk of adjustment if expectations boost the fundamentals [1] Summary by Directory Suspicious Point 1: Long - lasting and High - amplitude Increase - The commodity rally has lasted for a month, the longest this year, and has recovered nearly 50% of the decline since the tariff announcement. Technically, it seems more like a market reversal than a short - term rebound [1][4] Suspicious Point 2: Driven by Seemingly Random Factors but with a Rising Price Center - The rally can be divided into three stages: the first stage (604 - 612) was a technical rebound after the release of pessimistic sentiment; the second stage (613 - 624) saw prices rise and then fall due to the Israel - Iran war; the third stage (625 onwards) was driven by the "anti - involution" market. After these stages, the industrial product price index rose by 5.6% compared to June 3 [7][8] - The rising price center is due to three reasons: low prices leading to a high probability of upward movement, improved pessimistic expectations after the China - US leaders' call, and the seasonal tendency for prices to rise during the safety inspection and maintenance months of June and July [10][11] Suspicious Point 3: Lack of Demand - side Support for the Price Rebound - From the perspectives of fundamentals and price spreads, the demand side has been weak. The "old economy" related to real estate has not reversed its weakness, and the real estate market shows "weak volume and price" [15] - There is a divergence between futures and spot prices for some commodities, with the price increase mainly reflecting expectations rather than actual demand [17] Suspicious Point 4: The Commodity Rebound Has Not Yet Appeared in PPI - In June, PPI remained weak, with the year - on - year figure dropping by 0.3 percentage points compared to May. The divergence is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission [19] - The weekly production materials price index has rebounded for three consecutive weeks since June. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound in July [20] Impact on the Bond Market - The significance of monitoring commodity prices for the bond market lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors [1] - Currently, the risk of a fundamental reversal in commodity prices is low, but the price rebound may be transmitted to inflation. There is a high possibility of improvement in July's PPI [1] - In the long run, commodity prices depend on the relative changes in supply and demand. If expectations boost the fundamentals, there is a risk of adjustment in the bond market [1]

郑商所玻璃主力合约涨超5%，现报1081元/吨。 ...

日本央行：多个地区表示，企业担忧美国销售价格上涨导致需求下降，以及全球经济放缓。 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 2025 年 07 月 10 日 巨化股份 (600160) ——制冷剂价格环比继续大幅上扬，全球"特许经营权" 属性价值凸显 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025Q1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 24,462 | 5,800 | 27,858 | 30,820 | 33,822 | | 同比增长率（%） | 18.4 | 6.1 | 13.9 | 10.6 | 9.7 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,960 | 809 | 4,556 | 5,823 | 7,568 | | 同比增长率（%） | 107.7 | 160.6 | 132.5 | 27.8 | 30.0 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.73 | 0.30 | 1.69 | 2.16 | 2.80 | | 毛利率（%） | 17.5 | 28.4 | 26.7 | 30.2 | 33.5 | | ROE ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来源：内容来自 工商时报 。 全球DRAM市场进入结构性转折阶段，前四大原厂三星、SK海力士、美光与中国大陆长鑫存储敲定DDR4产品停产计划 （End of Life, EOL），加速将产能转向DDR5与高频宽记忆体（HBM）等先进制程产品，记忆体市场供需结构正面临剧 烈变动。 根据供应链接获原厂EOL时程，三星于2025年6月完成DDR4芯片最终接单，并于同年12月中上旬完成模组出货。 SK海力 士推估，2025年10月停止接单，2026年4月完成最终出货。 美光则于2025年6月初通知客户其DDR4将进入EOL阶段，预计2026年第一季将陆续停止出货。三大记忆体原厂把产能全 部转到DDR5与HBM后，旧制程产能释出极少。 业者指出，值得注意的是，美光生产线将转产12纳米制程，台湾厂房产线清空后，设备要搬运回美国，中间的转换期，将 造成供给空窗期。 陆厂长鑫存储作为全球第四大DRAM原厂，则计划在2025年第四季完成DDR4最后出货，未来聚焦DDR5等产品，支援本 土需求。 业者分析，本波EOL涵盖消费性、行动装置、个人电脑与资料中心等主力应用领域，仅少数车用 ...

Group 1 - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.9 billion to 0.96 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 0.855 billion to 0.915 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [1] - Following the China-US trade negotiations, China has partially relaxed rare earth export controls, expediting the approval process for foreign companies' export licenses, which has alleviated the high demand for rare earths from Western companies [1] - As of June, there has been a certain recovery in rare earth product export orders, although the export process has been slightly prolonged due to the time taken for license processing and customs inspections [1] Group 2 - With the upcoming peak season for domestic new energy vehicles and the subsequent overseas restocking demand, rare earth prices are expected to continue rising, benefiting the sector and leading to a dual boost in performance and valuation for domestic rare earth magnetic material companies [2] - Major domestic companies in the rare earth sector include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Jinli Permanent Magnet [3]