中期选举、地缘政治等在内的不利因素让不确定性有所上升。 随着2025年结束，美股以连续第三年实现两位数百分比涨幅的成绩收官。本轮牛市如今进入第四个年 头，想要再现业绩斐然的年份，在市场人士眼中，这需要企业盈利表现强劲、美联储采取宽松政策，同 时人工智能领域维持高额投入作为支撑。但包括中期选举、地缘政治等在内的一些不利因素，也令美股 今年前景的不确定性有所上升。 机构预测谨慎 尽管美国总统特朗普的关税政策令市场在上半年大幅下挫，标普500指数随后探底回升收盘涨幅达到 16.8%。不过，这也意味着冲击 "连续三年涨幅超20%"的里程碑失败。历史上，该指数仅在1995年开启 的一轮由科技股驱动的牛市中达成过这一成就，而那轮牛市最终在2000年初随着互联网泡沫破裂而终 结。 随着财政刺激政策和宽松货币政策发力，为经济增长与消费支出提供支撑，企业盈利增长的驱动力预计 将从少数科技及科技相关巨头，扩散至更广泛的企业群体。以英伟达、苹果和亚马逊为代表的 "科技七 巨头"在去年实现了37%的盈利增幅，而标普500指数其他成分股公司的盈利增幅仅为7%。到2026年， 这一盈利差距有望大幅收窄，伦交所汇总机构预测后表示，"七巨头 ...

Group 1 - The consensus among domestic and foreign institutions is that the Chinese stock market will continue to rise in 2026, driven by factors such as AI innovations, anti-involution policies, and improved corporate earnings [1] - Morgan Stanley and Citibank maintain an overweight rating on the Chinese market, while Goldman Sachs predicts a 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027, primarily due to corporate earnings growth of 14% and 12% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [1] - The national pension fund, exceeding 7.7 trillion yuan, will enter a long-term assessment phase to promote long-term investments and improve risk control and asset allocation [1] Group 2 - In January 2026, 71 new public funds are scheduled for issuance, indicating a growing expectation for new capital entering the market [2] - Over 20 A-share listed companies disclosed merger and acquisition announcements, with Zhongwei Company planning to acquire a 64.69% stake in Hangzhou Zhonggui [2] - China surpassed the US in the number of new drug approvals, with 76 innovative drugs approved in 2025, marking a historical high [3] Group 3 - The software and information technology service industry in China saw a revenue increase of 13.3% year-on-year, exceeding 13 trillion yuan, with software product revenue accounting for over 20% of total industry revenue [4] - The Supreme People's Court of China made a favorable ruling regarding the patent of semaglutide, which is significant for the pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk [5] - The company anticipates a low single-digit negative impact on global sales growth in 2026 due to the expiration of the semaglutide patent in some markets [5] Group 4 - Tianjin 712 Mobile Communication Co., Ltd. and Chengdu Startronic Microelectronics Co., Ltd. both initiated listing guidance on January 4, 2026 [6][7] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO application has been accepted, with a planned fundraising of 7.5 billion yuan [8] - Former senior executive of Hengrui Medicine, Zhou Yunshu, has joined Xiansheng Pharmaceutical as president [8]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 index surged by 16% last year, driven by economic resilience, interest rate cuts, and the AI boom, achieving 39 record highs [1][2] - Analysts predict continued growth, with Bank of America forecasting the S&P 500 to reach 7,100 points by year-end, a 3.7% increase from 2025's closing level [1][2] - Some investors express caution due to the rapid rise, noting an approximately 80% increase in the S&P 500 from the beginning of 2023 to New Year's Eve, which is often unsustainable [1][2] - Strong corporate earnings growth is anticipated, with analysts expecting a 15% increase in profits for S&P 500 companies this year, marking the highest annual growth rate since 2021 [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - LSEG's research head Tajinder Dhillon anticipates that S&P 500 companies will see earnings growth exceeding 15% in 2026, following a growth rate of approximately 13% in 2025 [1] Group 1 - Future earnings growth is expected to be more diversified compared to the past, which was primarily driven by a few tech giants [1] - The market predicts that the earnings growth of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks will slow to 23% next year, while other constituents are expected to increase by 13%, indicating a significant narrowing of the gap [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has achieved double-digit percentage gains for three consecutive years, but achieving a fourth year of strong returns in 2026 may be challenging due to the need for robust corporate earnings, a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, and significant investments in artificial intelligence [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - The U.S. stock market has been in a bull market since October 2022, driven by optimism around artificial intelligence, interest rate cuts, and economic growth amid recession fears [1]. - The S&P 500 index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 17% for 2025, following gains of 23% and 24% in 2024 and 2023, respectively [1]. - CFRA's Chief Investment Strategist, Sam Stovall, suggests that for 2026, the S&P 500 index target is set at 7400 points, indicating a potential increase of about 7% from current levels [5]. Group 2: Earnings Growth and Sector Performance - Optimism exists regarding U.S. corporate earnings, with projections indicating that S&P 500 companies' earnings are expected to grow by over 15% in 2026, following a 13% growth in 2025 [6]. - The growth in earnings is anticipated to be driven by a broader range of companies, supported by fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy, rather than being limited to a few tech giants [6]. - The "seven tech giants," including Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, are expected to see a profit growth rate of 37% in 2024, which is projected to decrease to 23% by 2026, while other S&P 500 companies are expected to grow at 13% [6]. Group 3: Economic Factors and Federal Reserve Influence - A key factor for strong stock market performance is the economic condition that is weak enough to suppress inflation and encourage further interest rate cuts, but not so weak as to lead to a recession [10]. - Investors expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a dovish stance, with predictions of at least two more rate cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points [10]. - The upcoming selection of the Federal Reserve Chair by Trump is viewed as a potential signal for a more dovish Fed, although concerns about the Fed's independence persist [10]. Group 4: Historical Context and Uncertainties - Historical data shows mixed potential returns for 2026, with an average gain of 12.8% in the fourth year of bull markets since 1950, although midterm election years typically see lower average gains of 3.8% for the S&P 500 [11]. - The relationship between the U.S. and China could significantly impact the stock market in 2026, with potential breakthroughs that may not be currently factored into expectations [11].

| Brokerage | 2026 S&P 500 index target | | --- | --- | | BofA Global Research | 7,100 | | Societe Generale | 7,300 | | Barclays | 7,400 | | UBS Global Research | 7,500 | | Jefferies | 7,500 | | HSBC | 7,500 | | J.P.Morgan | 7,500 | | Canaccord Genuity | 7,500 | | BNP Paribas | 7,500 | | Goldman Sachs | 7,600 | | Citigroup | 7,700 | | UBS Global Wealth Management | 7,700 | | Evercore ISI | 7,750 | | Morgan Stanley | 7,800 | | Seaport Research Partners | 7,800 | | Deutsche Bank | 8,000 | | Oppenheimer Asset ...

Core Viewpoint - Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth data has diminished market expectations for a recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a general decline in global stock markets while commodities surge, particularly precious metals and agricultural products [1][2]. Economic Data and Market Reactions - U.S. stock index futures fell, with the Dow Jones futures down over 0.1%, S&P 500 futures down 0.13%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.12% [2]. - Asian stock indices also declined, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 0.1% and South Korea's Seoul Composite Index down 0.2% [2]. Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2%, while the Japanese yen strengthened for three consecutive days, trading at 155.67 against the dollar [3]. - The South Korean won also appreciated, nearing the psychologically significant 1500 won per dollar mark, which has only been breached during extreme market pressures [6]. Commodity Price Trends - Gold prices initially surpassed $4500 per ounce before slightly retreating to $4485, marking a significant increase of over two-thirds this year [3][8]. - Silver prices rose nearly 1% to $72.11 per ounce, driven by both investment and industrial demand [11]. - Platinum prices reached a historical high above $2300 per ounce, influenced by supply shortages from major producing countries [14]. - London copper prices hit a record high, surpassing $12224 per ton [17]. - Chicago wheat futures continued to rise for five consecutive trading days, driven by supply concerns due to geopolitical issues and adverse weather conditions in the U.S. [18].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive outlook on the stock market for 2026, expecting continued growth in corporate earnings, but forecasts lower index returns compared to 2025 as the bull market expands [1] Economic Outlook - The firm anticipates ongoing economic expansion across all regions, with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to implement slight interest rate cuts [1] - The stock market is unlikely to experience significant declines or bear markets as long as the economy does not enter a recession, despite high valuations [1] Market Projections - Goldman Sachs projects a price return rate of 13% for the stock market in 2026, with a total return of 15% when including dividends, primarily driven by earnings [1] - There is an upward risk to the firm's forecasts, as valuations typically rise during optimistic phases later in the economic cycle [1] Investment Recommendations - The firm advises investors to maintain their investments and diversify assets across different regions, with a particular focus on emerging markets [1] - Investors should evenly distribute their portfolios between growth and value stocks, as well as across various industries, while paying attention to stocks with high alpha values [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that global stock markets are likely to continue rising next year, but with more moderate returns due to corporate earnings growth and the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs strategists, including Peter Oppenheimer, maintain a constructive view on the stock market for 2026, anticipating sustained earnings growth [1] - Despite the ongoing bull market expansion, expected index-level returns are projected to be lower than those in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that global stock markets are expected to continue rising next year due to corporate earnings growth and the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy, although returns will be more moderate compared to 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs strategists, including Peter Oppenheimer, maintain a constructive view on the stock market for 2026, anticipating continued earnings growth [1] - The report suggests that in the context of an expanding bull market, the return rates at the index level will be lower than those in 2025 [1] Group 2: Economic Projections - Economists at Goldman Sachs expect ongoing economic expansion across various regions, alongside a further moderate easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1] - The 12-month stock price forecast, weighted by regional market capitalization, predicts a 13% return in USD terms for 2026, which will increase to 15% when dividends are included [1]