Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant downward trend in interest rates in China and its implications for the asset management industry, highlighting the challenges and opportunities that arise in a low-interest environment [1][3]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - China's private equity fund market has grown to nearly 20 trillion yuan since its inception in 2008, but the distribution to paid-in capital (DPI) is only 0.3% [1]. - There are over 300 companies waiting for IPOs, with many withdrawing their applications, leading to a situation where listed companies have low price-to-earnings ratios, some as low as 3 to 5 times [1]. - The current environment has led to a blockage in cash-out channels for private equity funds, as early-stage entrepreneurs are burning cash, resulting in inflated valuations during financing rounds [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The article identifies three types of investment opportunities in the current market: 1. **Dividend Investments**: Local governments can provide partial capital and raise funds from insurance companies, which typically seek a 3% return. If dividend yields reach 6%, they can cover the insurance companies' costs [2]. 2. **Consolidation Investments**: Acquiring companies in the same industry at different funding stages (A, B, C rounds) to enhance overall competitiveness and achieve profitability in a few years [2]. 3. **Acquisitions of Quality Assets by Multinational Companies**: Collaborating with local CEOs for management buyouts, ensuring key personnel remain to safeguard profitability post-acquisition [2]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - The article suggests that insurance companies should focus on finding stable dividend-paying investment targets and consider direct investments in projects [2]. - It recommends utilizing channels like the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect to invest in Hong Kong-listed companies with good cash flow and high returns, as well as exploring U.S. assets through ETFs and derivatives [2].

Group 1 - Japan's real estate investment reached a record high of 3.19 trillion yen in the first half of 2025, marking a 22% year-on-year increase, the highest since records began in 2007 [1] - Tokyo led global cities with an investment of 16 billion USD, surpassing New York and Dallas [1] - Overseas investors significantly contributed to this growth, with their investments increasing 3.7 times to 1.09 trillion yen, accounting for 34% of total investments [1][3] Group 2 - Office buildings dominated Japan's real estate investment, making up 53% of the total, with Tokyo's five central wards accounting for 56% of the investment, the first time exceeding 50% since the first half of 2018 [2] - Major transactions, such as Mitsubishi Estate's acquisition of Akasaka Park Building and Wacoal's sale of its Kyoto building, indicate strong demand for quality properties [2] - Surrounding areas like Chiba, Saitama, and Kanagawa benefited from this investment trend, capturing 11% of the investment share, up 3 percentage points from the previous year [2] Group 3 - The significant influx of overseas capital is a defining feature of Japan's real estate market, with investment amounts growing 3.7 times to 1.09 trillion yen [3] - The acquisition of Tokyo Garden Terrace Kioicho by Blackstone for approximately 400 billion yen exemplifies international capital's pursuit of quality assets in Japan [3] - Current investment returns for Grade A office buildings in Tokyo's central five wards are maintained at 2.0% to 2.5%, with potential for slight increases if interest rates rise [3] Group 4 - In contrast to Tokyo, the Osaka region's investment share dropped from 21% to 10% year-on-year, primarily due to the conclusion of hotel investment driven by the expectations surrounding the Kansai Expo [4] - The Osaka region, which includes Hyogo, Kyoto, and Nara, previously attracted significant hotel and infrastructure investments due to the Expo concept, but this interest has waned as projects have been realized [4] - This regional disparity highlights the structural characteristics of Japan's real estate market, with Tokyo solidifying its status as an international financial center while other areas rely on specific event-driven investments [4] Group 5 - Japan's robust real estate investment performance is a crucial component of the global real estate market recovery, with global real estate investment rising 21% year-on-year to 358 billion USD in the first half of 2025 [6] - The Asia-Pacific region saw an overall growth of 17%, with Japan's significant increase boosting the regional average [6] - Despite some hesitance due to Trump's tariff policies affecting logistics and factory transactions, lower borrowing costs have facilitated overall investment expansion [6]

Core Insights - The total scale of ETFs increased by 458.8 billion yuan in the past month, reaching 5.13 trillion yuan, marking a nearly 10% growth [1] - The number of ETF shares rose by 115.4 billion, totaling 2.9 trillion shares, with 16 new products launched, bringing the total to 1,288 [1] - The financial sector saw the largest increase in shares, followed by the sub-segment of the chemical industry and the Hong Kong internet sector [1][2] ETF Performance - Ten products experienced a scale increase of over 10 billion yuan, with several broad-based products growing by over 20 billion yuan, such as Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and CSI 300 ETF E-Fund, which grew by 24.3 billion yuan and 21.6 billion yuan respectively [1] - The top-performing thematic ETFs included Guotai Securities ETF and E-Fund ChiNext ETF, both exceeding 10 billion yuan in growth [2] Thematic and Cross-Border ETFs - The chemical industry and artificial intelligence sectors are attracting significant investment, with the Penghua Chemical ETF growing by over 14 billion yuan and the E-Fund AI ETF increasing by 5.6 billion yuan [2] - Cross-border ETFs are becoming a key channel for investing in Hong Kong stocks, with the Fuguo Hong Kong Internet ETF growing by 19.8 billion yuan and the Huatai-PB Hang Seng Technology ETF increasing by 8.2 billion yuan [3] Market Trends - The current low valuation of A-shares and ongoing domestic growth policies are driving demand for broad-based ETFs, which are seen as a risk-diversifying investment option [2] - The demand for cross-border ETFs is rising due to improved valuation expectations in Hong Kong and the attractiveness of technology and financial sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Under the low interest rate environment, brokerage asset management must find its strategic positioning and enhance its ability to serve the real economy while improving active management capabilities to stand out in a competitive market [3][4]. Group 1: Strengthening Service to the Real Economy - Serving the real economy is fundamental for financial institutions and is essential for brokerage asset management to thrive in a low interest rate environment. This can be achieved by accurately identifying positioning, aligning with policy directions, and enhancing connections between resident wealth and the real economy [6]. - Accurate positioning involves focusing on core responsibilities and establishing a long-term strategic direction that prioritizes financial functionality and addresses the financing needs of the real economy [6]. - Emphasizing policy alignment allows brokerage asset management to channel resources into areas that align with national strategies, such as technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [6][7]. - Enhancing connections between resident wealth and the real economy requires a focus on product innovation, resource allocation, and risk management to meet the growing demand for wealth preservation and appreciation among residents [7]. Group 2: Enhancing Research and Investment Capabilities - Research and investment capabilities are the core competitiveness of brokerage asset management and are crucial for active management, product creation, and client service [9]. - Strengthening the research and investment system involves strategic planning, organizational structure optimization, and talent management to balance various factors such as long-term and short-term goals, risk and return, and research and application [9][10]. - Quality assurance in research and investment can be achieved through methodological upgrades, process improvements, and a comprehensive evaluation system that includes accuracy, consistency, and impact [10][11]. - Technological support for research and investment should focus on integrating distributed computing, artificial intelligence, and data science to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of research processes [11]. Group 3: Improving Asset Allocation Capabilities - Asset allocation is a key strategy for brokerage asset management to navigate the low interest rate environment and the shrinking returns of traditional fixed-income assets [13]. - Optimizing the asset allocation framework involves deepening the research on strategic and tactical asset allocation methods and enhancing the application of quantitative models [13][14]. - Diversifying asset allocation strategies is essential in a competitive market, necessitating a broader range of investment strategies and the establishment of a comprehensive management model for strategy verification and performance evaluation [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of high-yield wealth management products in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting the performance of equity and mixed-asset products that have achieved significant returns this year [2][3][9]. Group 1: High-Yield Wealth Management Products - Nearly a hundred wealth management products have achieved double-digit growth in annual returns this year, with some products from institutions like 招银理财 yielding over 40% [2][3]. - The majority of high-yield products are equity or mixed-asset products, with equity allocations often exceeding 50%, and in some cases, over 90% [3][7]. - As of August, the average annualized return for wealth management products was 2.12%, down 0.53 percentage points from the end of last year, making the performance of equity and mixed-asset products particularly notable [3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Institutional Behavior - The low-interest-rate environment is prompting institutional investors, such as insurance companies, to increase their allocations to equities to enhance investment returns [5][6]. - 宁银理财 has actively participated in new stock subscriptions, leading the banking wealth management sector in the number of products involved in IPOs [6][7]. - The shift towards equity investments is becoming a consensus among wealth management companies as traditional fixed-income products face declining yields [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Considerations and Risk Awareness - Investors are advised to understand the inherent risks associated with high-yield products, as those with returns exceeding 20% often experience maximum drawdowns of over 10% [8][9]. - 宁银理财 emphasizes the importance of assessing individual risk tolerance and understanding the characteristics of the products before investing [9]. - The company has developed a diverse product line covering various risk levels to cater to different investor needs, highlighting the importance of appropriate asset allocation [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic choice of developing diversified investments and solid income plus (固收+) funds in response to the declining expected returns of fixed-income assets in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2]. Low-Interest Rate Environment and Solid Income Plus Fund Development - The continuous decline in China's interest rates has led to a decrease in expected returns from fixed-income assets, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from approximately 3.3% in 2021 to around 1.6%-1.7% by June 2025 [2][3]. - The low-interest-rate environment poses challenges for asset allocation, necessitating a shift towards diversified investments [2][3]. Growth of Solid Income Plus Funds - Solid income plus funds have seen rapid growth, with an increase of 136.4 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing 2 trillion yuan in total size, while pure bond funds decreased by 590 billion yuan during the same period [5]. - The performance of solid income plus funds has been favorable compared to pure bond funds, as indicated by better risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio) [5][6]. International Experiences in Low-Interest Rate Environments - In Japan, the solid income plus fund market grew significantly during low-interest periods, with the scale increasing from approximately 2 trillion yen to 17 trillion yen from 2001 to 2025 [7]. - European solid income plus funds also expanded rapidly, with growth rates exceeding those of pure bond funds during the same low-interest periods [9]. - Norway's sovereign fund reduced its allocation to fixed-income assets while increasing equity investments to achieve higher risk-adjusted returns [12]. Operational Model of Solid Income Plus Funds - The operational model of solid income plus funds should consider the characteristics of the financial market and investors' risk preferences, focusing on three aspects: liabilities, assets, and investment management [14][15]. - Fund management companies should offer products that match different risk-return profiles, catering to both individual and institutional investors [15][16]. Asset Investment Strategies - The investment strategy for solid income plus funds involves two levels: asset allocation between fixed-income and equity assets, and detailed investment within these asset classes [22]. - The correlation between stocks and bonds has become more negative, allowing for better asset allocation advantages [23]. Investment Management Practices - A "1+N" multi-asset management model is proposed, where one asset allocation expert oversees the overall strategy, while multiple team members focus on specific areas [26][27]. - This model enhances collaboration and adaptability, improving the performance and resilience of solid income plus funds in changing market conditions [27][28].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The A-share market sentiment index has significantly declined, indicating a risk of overheating, although it remains higher than last year's levels and comparable to the peaks of 2020-2021 [1][3] - The financing balance has seen substantial growth since September last year, reflecting a robust liquidity environment driven by low interest rates, despite a recent slight decrease [1][5] - A-share account openings have shown a moderate recovery, and the establishment of equity mixed funds has increased, but not to bull market levels [1][6] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is comparable to the 2021 peak, but the implied risk premium is at historical averages, indicating no extreme values [1][7] Market Predictions - Short-term adjustments are expected due to trading overheating, with the Shanghai Composite Index potentially finding support at 3,600-3,700 points [1][8] - In the medium to long term, the low interest rate environment is expected to catalyze valuations, with a target for the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 7,400 points in Q4 [1][9] Sector Performance - High-performing sectors include non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, new energy, retail, and computers [1][10] - The telecommunications sector shows marginal improvements in return on equity (ROE), with significant profit growth, making it a favorable long-term investment [1][10] - The computer industry has shown a notable growth rate of 11.03% this year, indicating optimism among entrepreneurs [1][11] Investment Recommendations - A recommendation for small-cap growth style investments, focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, retail, electric equipment, new energy, computers, banks, and non-bank financials [2][15] - A simulated portfolio has achieved a 50% absolute return and a 32% excess return since September 1, 2022, indicating effective investment strategies [2][16] Market Behavior and Sentiment - The sentiment index is constructed from various factors, including new highs and lows, trading volume, and financing balance, with recent declines in new highs and increases in new lows [3][4] - Market congestion indicators suggest that most sectors are in a crowded state, signaling a potential short-term peak, although the degree is lower than historical highs [1][14] Additional Insights - Institutional research focuses on retail, non-bank financials, and telecommunications, reflecting fund managers' interests and positioning [1][12] - The analysis of market congestion includes liquidity, cost dispersion, volatility, and component stock consistency, with many sectors currently showing signs of congestion [1][14] - Besides A-shares, attention is also given to gold and global assets, with regular updates on timing and asset allocation strategies [1][17]

Report Title - "The Arduous Waiting Period: A New Balance in the Bond Market under the Asset Allocation Mainline - Outlook for the Bond Market in September 2025" [1] Report Date - September 3, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Since 2022, the transmission from broad credit to the fundamentals seems to be weakening. The stock - bond seesaw effect since 2025 may be driven by new logic: anti - involution has reversed the macro narrative since 2024, and the rise of the stock market and the improvement of expectations reinforce each other [5][108][165] - The stock - bond seesaw is just an appearance. The deeper reason is that in a low - interest - rate environment, residents' asset allocation behavior has changed substantially. Deposits and pure bonds have entered a low - return range, and funds are seeking more cost - effective alternative assets, increasing the demand for stock - bond hybrid products [8][113][165] - In 2025, the supply of long - duration government bonds has increased more significantly, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand and a steeper term spread [8][132][165] - Currently, the core issue is the lack of continuous buying power from allocation players, and trading players are mainly engaged in speculation [7][165] Summary by Directory 1. Analysis of the Bond Market Trend from January to Date and Its Macroeconomic Logic - **2025 Q1**: Tight funds and prominent bank liability pressure led to a bond market correction [16] - **2025 Q2**: Repeated tariff expectations, along with potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, caused yields to decline rapidly to a low level and then fluctuate [18] - **2025 July - August**: Anti - involution expectations, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and fund diversion led to a bond market correction. In August, the term spread of treasury bonds expanded, and the duration strategy began to collapse. The credit spreads of secondary perpetual bonds and medium - term notes first increased and then decreased [20][22][27] - **Summary**: Since the beginning of the year, long - term interest rates have repeatedly attempted to break through previous lows but failed, and the interest rate bottom has been rising (the bond YTM has shown an arc - bottom pattern since the beginning of the year) [4][39][48] 2. Understanding the Deviation among Funds, Certificates of Deposit (CDs), and the Bond Market - **6 - 8 months**: Overall, funds were loose to support bond issuance, stabilize the economy, and hedge the impact of the stock market on the bond market. After the double cuts in May, the central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity net injection from January to August 2025 totaled 3.98 trillion yuan, significantly exceeding historical levels [52][55][100] - **September**: Both medium - and long - term liquidity and CD maturities are high. The first ten days may be an important window to observe the central bank's attitude. The central bank may conduct 3 - month outright reverse repurchases to hedge [68][98][100] - **Deviation since July**: Funds have been loose, but CD prices have remained rigid. The CD price has a seasonal pattern of bottoming out and rising in the third quarter. Rising stock market trading activity, increased net supply of government bonds, and other factors have contributed to this situation [69][88][95] - **CD Pressure Relief**: Focus on whether the central bank conducts 3 - month outright reverse repurchases in early September. Consider whether there will be another double cut around the beginning of the fourth quarter to relieve economic and bank liability pressure [98][100] 3. Revisiting Deposit Transfer and Fund Diversion Effects - **Traditional Logic of the Stock - Bond Seesaw**: In most periods, stocks and bonds show a seesaw relationship. The driving logic is the transmission from broad money to broad credit, with expectations of fundamental improvement leading to a rising stock market, rising interest rates, and narrowing credit spreads [103] - **Resident Wealth Transfer**: It is a stock logic. In a low - interest - rate environment, residents are re - allocating assets. The main destinations of deposit diversion in recent years are likely wealth management and insurance. Residents' direct entry into the stock market may still be in the early stage [109][113][120] - **Stock and Bond Financing Comparison**: In 2024, the supply and demand of stocks were weak, while in 2025, supply increased marginally, but demand increased more significantly. In 2024, the supply of bonds was large and demand was strong, but in 2025, supply continued to increase significantly while demand weakened [132][135][139] - **Role of Allocation Players**: Insurance companies have a weaker preference for the bond market and are more interested in high - dividend assets. They are waiting for better prices in the bond market. Rural commercial banks' bond - buying power has weakened, and the bond investment scale of some accounts has shrunk [140][147][154] - **Role of Trading Players**: Since July 2025, wealth management products have been the main buyers during the bond market adjustment, indicating that the liability side of wealth management may still be stable. Pure bond funds have performed poorly this year and have faced continuous redemption pressure [155][159][163] 4. How Much Risk Has the Bond Market Released? - **Adjustment since July**: The adjustment of long - term interest rates is due to the impact of anti - involution expectations on the bond market and the stock - bond re - balance caused by fund diversion. The widening of the term spread is essentially a correction of pessimistic expectations [12] - **Future Risks to Watch**: Expectations of rising inflation, instability of the liability side of wealth management and funds, and the impact of redemptions [12] - **Indicators to Monitor**: The trend of CDs, the entry strength of allocation players, and the performance of credit spreads. The bond market is still under pressure, and a cautious view is maintained. In September, the bond market may continue to be in an arduous waiting period, and attention should be paid to the structural widening pressure of credit spreads [11][12][100]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing a historic surge, with spot gold prices remaining above $3500 per ounce and COMEX gold futures breaking through $3610 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1][2] - Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end gold price target to $3800 per ounce, emphasizing the negative correlation between gold and the US dollar as a key pricing logic [2] - The FedWatch tool indicates a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, which typically benefits non-yielding assets like gold [2] Group 2 - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust GLD, saw its holdings increase by 1.32% to 990.56 tons, the highest level since August 2022, indicating strong inflows into gold [2] - Technical analysis shows that gold futures have continued to rebound, marking the sixth consecutive day of gains, with resistance levels identified at $3620-$3630 and support levels at $3580-$3590 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The low interest rate environment poses challenges for traditional investment products, prompting investors to seek alternatives that balance safety, liquidity, and returns [5][6][7]. Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - Major banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping below 1%, leading to a search for "deposit alternatives" among investors [5][6]. - The low interest rate trend is expected to persist, affecting the returns of traditional stable products like bank deposits and money market funds [6][7]. - Investors are advised to diversify their asset allocation to balance risk and return, utilizing strategies like "fixed income plus" to enhance yields [6][9]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - A diversified strategy is essential, focusing on high-quality credit bonds and interest rate bonds as core assets, complemented by equities and convertible bonds for yield enhancement [6][9]. - Investors should consider low-volatility fixed income products, which typically have a maximum drawdown of less than 2%, making them suitable for short-term idle funds [7][8]. - The use of AI and quantitative tools is recommended to improve risk management and enhance investment flexibility in a low interest rate environment [6][9]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - In an "asset scarcity" environment, investors should prioritize safety, yield, and liquidity through diversified and dynamic asset allocation [9][10]. - A balanced portfolio should include stocks, bonds, and commodities, utilizing strategies like risk parity and dynamic balancing to optimize risk-return profiles [9][10]. - High-quality, stable dividend-paying stocks are attractive in a low interest rate environment, while growth stocks should be selectively included for potential higher returns [10][11]. Group 4: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is currently experiencing increased volatility, with a need for investors to balance safety margins and yield flexibility [11][17]. - The outlook for the bond market is neutral, with short-term assets showing higher certainty and long-term assets gradually revealing comparative advantages [17]. - Credit risk in the bond market is expected to decrease, providing opportunities for investment in high-rated credit bonds [11][17].