Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, under the requirement of a more proactive fiscal policy, the issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter reached a record high, but the issuance progress of new bonds was relatively slow. The issuance of refinancing bonds increased significantly, and nearly half of the provinces completed the issuance of this year's replacement quota. The support of special bonds for real - estate related projects increased significantly, and the proportion of special bonds used as capital decreased slightly. - It is predicted that about 7 trillion yuan of local government bonds will be issued this year, and the issuance in the second quarter is expected to accelerate, with a scale of over 3 trillion yuan. The special bonds can theoretically leverage about 4.3 trillion yuan of infrastructure investment, but the actual leverage effect needs to be improved. - In the future, attention should be paid to the issuance and use progress of government bonds, the implementation of special bonds for land reserves and the acquisition of existing commercial housing, the investment direction of special bond funds, the overall efficiency of fiscal funds, and the rigid repayment pressure of fiscal budget funds under the increasing interest - payment scale [4][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Quarter Local Bond Market Operation Features - **High - record issuance scale, high proportion of refinancing bonds, and slow progress of new bonds**: In the first quarter, local government bonds issued 2.84 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 80.58%. Refinancing bonds issued 1.60 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 1.2 times, accounting for 56.39% of the local bond issuance scale. New bonds issued 1.24 trillion yuan, completing 21.82% of the quota, still lower than the average level in the past three years [4][7]. - **Nearly half of the provinces completed the issuance of this year's replacement quota, and the issuance progress of new special bonds in "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas was fast**: By the end of the first quarter, 14 provinces completed the issuance of this year's replacement quota, and only 3 provinces had not issued special refinancing bonds. The issuance progress of new special bonds in 10 pilot provinces was significantly faster than that in non - pilot provinces [11][12]. - **Extended issuance term, over 80% of 10 - year and above bonds, and a monthly rising trend in issuance interest rates**: The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds increased by 4.49 years year - on - year to 17.19 years. The issuance interest rate decreased year - on - year but showed a monthly rising trend. The overall spread of local government bonds continued to be within 15bp, narrowing year - on - year [18][20]. - **Significantly increased support for the real - estate sector by special bonds, and a slight decrease in the proportion of special bonds used as capital**: The investment of special bonds was still concentrated in municipal and industrial parks, transportation, and other fields. The support for real - estate related projects increased significantly, and the proportion of special bonds used as capital decreased slightly [23]. 3.2 Follow - up Issuance Outlook - **Issuance forecast**: About 7 trillion yuan of local government bonds are to be issued this year. In the second quarter, the issuance of new special bonds is expected to accelerate, with a scale of 1.6 trillion yuan. Over 3 trillion yuan of refinancing bonds are to be issued, and about 0.66 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds for implicit debt replacement are still to be issued. It is recommended to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in a timely manner [28][30]. - **Leverage effect forecast**: About 2.6 trillion yuan of new special bonds are expected to be invested in infrastructure projects this year, which can theoretically leverage about 4.3 trillion yuan of infrastructure investment. However, the actual leverage effect is limited by multiple factors [34]. 3.3 Issues to be Concerned about and Corresponding Suggestions - **Pay attention to the issuance and use progress of local government bonds**: Accelerate the issuance and use of new special bonds, advance debt replacement, and strengthen the coordination of monetary policy [37]. - **Pay attention to the implementation of special bonds for land reserves and the acquisition of existing commercial housing**: Introduce relevant policy details as soon as possible to prevent capital idling and stabilize the real - estate market [39]. - **Pay attention to the investment direction of special bond funds**: Expand the scope of use, focus on people's livelihood, consumption, and long - term development, and strengthen project reserves and financing docking in new fields [40]. - **Pay attention to the overall efficiency of fiscal funds**: Improve the supervision and early - warning system, enhance the efficiency of debt - resolution funds, and give full play to the role of other fiscal funds [42]. - **Pay attention to the rigid repayment pressure of fiscal budget funds under the increasing interest - payment scale**: Improve the debt - repayment and interest - payment guarantee mechanism [43].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and prices, highlighting the complex interplay between market dynamics, investor sentiment, and political factors, particularly under the influence of President Trump's policies. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yield Dynamics - U.S. Treasury yields have risen significantly, with the 30-year yield surpassing 5% and the 10-year yield reaching 4.50%, indicating a decline in bond prices due to supply-demand imbalances [3][4]. - The rise in yields reflects a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, contrary to expectations of them being a safe haven amid global uncertainties and rising risk aversion [7][9]. - The sell-off was exacerbated by forced liquidations from funds engaged in basis trading, leading to a vicious cycle of selling and rising yields [7][8]. Group 2: Political Influence and Market Sentiment - President Trump's approach to trade and monetary policy has contributed to a decline in market confidence in U.S. assets, with fears of escalating trade wars and pressure on the Federal Reserve [10][11]. - Trump's strategies, including potential tariff reductions and reassurances regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership, have temporarily alleviated selling pressure on Treasuries [12][13]. - The article suggests that Trump's political maneuvers may be aimed at creating crises that he can later resolve, thereby consolidating his political power ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [10]. Group 3: Changing Perception of U.S. Treasuries - U.S. Treasuries are increasingly viewed as risk assets rather than risk-free assets, with a rising risk premium reflecting diminished confidence in the dollar's creditworthiness [16][18]. - The article notes that the U.S. national debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with debt-to-GDP ratios over 120%, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [16][18]. - The decline in the dollar's share of global reserves, projected to fall below 50% by 2026, indicates a shift in investor sentiment away from U.S. Treasuries [20][18]. Group 4: Default Risks and Market Reactions - While the immediate risk of a U.S. Treasury default is low, the article highlights ongoing concerns about the potential for a systemic crisis in confidence regarding U.S. assets [22][26]. - The U.S. government has various tools to avoid default, including negotiating for foreign purchases of Treasuries and potentially restructuring debt [22][23]. - The article warns that if confidence in Treasuries continues to erode, the Federal Reserve may have to intervene more aggressively, which could lead to inflationary pressures [25][26].

文 ｜ 明明 李晗 徐烨烽 俞柯帆 来正杰 化债资金前置发行的背景下，一季度地方债发行规模创新高，合计发行2 . 8 4万亿元，其中化债资金1 . 4万亿元，包括1 . 3万亿元 置换隐债专项债和11 7 2亿元特殊新增专项债。但从新增地方债的角度看，一季度发行新增一般债2 7 9 1亿元，新增专项债9 6 0 2亿 元，节奏同比有所加快，但相对其余年份而言仍有差距。展望二季度，当前已公布发行地方债合计规模约2 . 2 3万亿元，在"自审 自发"试点落地后，新增债发行有望加速，也可期待土储专项债的增量发行和化债资金的继续落地。配置角度，当前地方债利差 相对较高，流动性虽有改善，但仍低于市场平均水平，适合负债端稳定的配置机构进行参与。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年一季度地方债发行规模创新高，结构分化凸显政策导向。 2 0 2 5年一季度地方债合计发行2 . 8 4万亿元，同比增长8 1%，超越历年来一季度发行水平。从结构看，一季度专项债发行占比显 著提升，合计发行2 . 4 3万亿元，其中再融资专项债1 . 4万亿元，占发行总量高达5 2%，主要源于地方政府化债资金加速落地需 求。一般债券发行4 1 0 2亿元，占比1 ...

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Trends - In February, the social financing scale increased by 2.23 trillion RMB, which is 737.4 billion RMB more year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.2%[4] - New RMB loans added in February were 650.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 326.7 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Corporate loans increased by 1.04 trillion RMB in February, a year-on-year decrease of 540 billion RMB[3] Group 2: Household and Corporate Loan Performance - Household loans showed a net decrease of 389.1 billion RMB, which is a reduction of 201.6 billion RMB compared to the previous year[3] - The performance of short-term household loans was better than that of medium and long-term loans, with short-term loans decreasing by 2.74 billion RMB[3] - Corporate medium and long-term loans saw a decrease of 750 billion RMB year-on-year, attributed to accelerated debt replacement and slow recovery post-Spring Festival[3] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - M2 growth rate remained stable at 7% in February, while M1 growth rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 0.1%[5] - The increase in non-bank deposits was 2.8 trillion RMB, which is 1.7 trillion RMB more year-on-year[5] - The necessity to boost demand is highlighted, with potential for structural interest rate cuts and increased personal consumption loan issuance[5]

今天市场成交2.06万亿，但是市场表现不佳，市场中位数-2.56%，痛感明显。但有一件事令我颇为困惑，从上证指数到沪深300，再到中证500、1000、 2000指数，包括微盘股指数，这些几乎覆盖了整个a股的指数跌幅都在2%以内，偏偏中位数却能跌出2.56%，这种情况以前很罕见。 想来想去只有一个可能，就是在每一个指数编制的样本区间里，都是市值大的跌的少，市值小的跌的多，才会出现这个结果。 至于这个新闻的前提条件，也就是特朗普胜选这件事，目前已经在资本市场上形成了越来越多的共识。就在昨天特朗普团队在纽约的麦迪逊广场进行了一 个重要的造势集会，现场2万多个位置座无虚席，甚至在体育馆的外面还有4-5万聚集支持。纽约一直是支持民主党的城市，特朗普能在纽约搞出那么大声 势的活动，等于是在对手的家门口秀肌肉。 那是市场风格又切换了吗？还没有，这一轮炒重组的龙头是st板块，今天板块指数还涨了0.16%，涨跌个股数也几乎相当，st板块今天冲高回落，虽然炒作 情绪确实有所冷却，但和大盘比起来依然是很强劲的阿尔法板块。 不过新股的炒作确实已经凉了，次新股是近期最惨烈的板块。10月11日上市的强邦新材最高价到过245，今天收盘只 ...