Group 1 - The U.S. bond market has recently lost its safe-haven function, with concerns over fiscal sustainability re-emerging since May, leading to increased long-term borrowing costs and a simultaneous decline in both stocks and bonds [1] - Historical data indicates that during inflation shocks, both stocks and bonds may experience negative real returns, while gold tends to perform well during periods of stock and bond weakness [1] - Goldman Sachs highlights that the credibility of the U.S. system is at significant risk, and the sustained demand for gold from central banks worldwide will strongly support gold prices [1] Group 2 - In May, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, reporting a total of 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons) by the end of May, an increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) month-on-month [1] - Huachuang Securities suggests that the current unexpected rise in gold prices reflects a pricing for the restructuring of global order, indicating that uncertainties may persist, and trading in gold may not be over [1] - Overall, in the context of a weakening dollar, gold continues to have long-term support, and interested investors may consider low-cost entry through gold ETF funds [1]

Core Views - The report highlights that 2023 is an "atypical" macro year, with significant impacts from Trump's policies on global trade, finance, and geopolitics, leading to a restructuring of the global order [3] - As the market shifts away from US assets, Chinese assets are expected to undergo a revaluation, suggesting a strategic focus on "high odds + left-side emphasis + trading" to navigate uncertainties [3][6] - The report suggests that the weakening dollar may favor non-US assets, with European assets showing higher probabilities of performance, while emerging markets like Hong Kong may offer better odds [3][6] Market Environment - The report identifies three main themes driving asset price performance: global cycle misalignment, AI technology revolution, and global capital reallocation [4] - It notes that the restructuring of global order is altering asset pricing rules, leading to increased volatility and reduced trends across various asset classes [6][13] - The report emphasizes the need for diversified asset allocation strategies in response to changing correlations and the impact of fiscal policies [16] Investment Themes - The report outlines several investment themes for the second half of 2025, including the reconstruction of economic, financial, and geopolitical orders, with a focus on nearshoring and de-dollarization trends [5][17] - It highlights the potential for structural opportunities in regions and industries, particularly in defense, self-sufficiency, and scarce resources due to increased geopolitical uncertainties [5][17] - The report also discusses the implications of a potential stagflation scenario in the US and deflation risks in non-US markets, suggesting a cautious approach to asset allocation [5][24] Asset Pricing - The report indicates that the pricing anchor effect of US Treasuries is weakening due to policy uncertainties and debt issues, leading to a potential revaluation of non-US assets [6][49] - It suggests that the global capital market may see increased diversification as the correlation between US and non-US assets declines [6][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining flexibility in asset operations and focusing on high odds and low correlation strategies [6][40] Debt Dynamics - The report discusses the implications of the US debt situation, highlighting the challenges posed by high deficits and the potential for a long-term weakening of the dollar [49][53] - It notes that the US government's reliance on short-term debt may create new fiscal stability concerns, particularly as refinancing costs rise [57][58] - The report suggests that the government's approach to managing debt will be a critical factor influencing asset performance in the coming years [59]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a long-term bullish outlook on gold, driven by global order restructuring and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the end of the U.S. interest rate hike cycle [2][3]. Summary by Reports Report 1: Strategic Bullish on Gold (December 2023) - Gold has been trading around $2000 per ounce for nearly three years, with a key resistance at $2050. The report argues that the global order is likely undergoing significant changes, influenced by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the waning effects of the pandemic [3]. Report 2: Unusual Pricing of Gold (May 2024) - By May 2024, gold prices reached $2400-$2500 per ounce, but traditional pricing models failed to explain this surge. The report highlights a divergence from historical pricing models, suggesting that non-traditional factors are now driving gold prices [4]. Report 3: Extreme Scenarios for Gold Prices (March 2025) - In March 2025, gold prices hit $3000 per ounce, with the report exploring five extreme scenarios that could further elevate gold prices. It argues that market perceptions of gold's potential are underestimating its tail risk in a restructuring global order [5]. Report 4: Gold Implicit Order Restructuring Index (May 2025) - Following a price increase to $3300-$3400 per ounce, the report introduces a new analytical tool to capture the portion of gold price movements not explained by traditional models. This index reflects investor expectations regarding the restructuring of global financial and political orders [6][7]. Current View on Gold - The current price surge in gold is seen as a reflection of expectations surrounding global order restructuring, drawing parallels to historical periods of upheaval. The company maintains a strategic bullish stance on gold, highlighting its value in reducing portfolio volatility [9].

Group 1 - The trade war has significant impacts, but there is optimism for the future, especially regarding supply chain adjustments and the internationalization of the RMB [1] - Investment focus is shifting towards self-controlled technology sectors and defensive sectors that promote domestic demand and consumption in response to global tariff shocks [1][16] - The multi-strategy approach in investment shows advantages over single strategies, particularly in risk control during extreme market conditions [1] Group 2 - The global political and economic landscape is rapidly evolving, presenting unprecedented opportunities and challenges for capital markets [2] - The total market size of ETFs has exceeded 4 trillion yuan as of April 20, indicating a strong trend towards these investment vehicles [2] - The seminar aimed to discuss asset allocation strategies in the context of global order restructuring and to explore how to leverage policy benefits [2] Group 3 - The semiconductor industry in China is expected to accelerate its self-sufficiency due to the lack of exemptions for U.S. semiconductor products in counter-tariff measures [1] - The sectors of semiconductor equipment, materials, and high-end chip design are anticipated to enter a golden development period [1] Group 4 - The current market environment presents risks that may not be fully recognized, and there is a need for investors to explore these risks while identifying opportunities [3] - The seminar gathered over 50 representatives from various sectors to discuss risk management and portfolio construction in the current market [3]

中信建投观点如下： 一、美债风暴迅猛来袭本周前两个交易日，美债收益率大幅上行接近30 BP，美债掀起一轮新的抛售风 暴。 智通财经APP获悉，中信建投证券发表研报称，关税政策对全球资本市场的影响仍在逐步蔓延：从美国 资产定价衰退，到全球资产定价衰退，再到近期美国长债收益率大幅上行，美债市场风暴来袭。近期美 债风暴背后的三层因素是：触发因素，3年期美债拍卖需求疲弱，引发市场担忧此后的10年及30年国债 拍卖。美国长债收益率抬升，短债收益率波动不大。助推因素，全球风险资产大跌，美债波动加大，杠 杆基差交易被迫平仓，美债面临流动性偏紧的格局。底层因素，市场关注全球秩序重构下全球美元循环 走向何方。 4月2日美国宣布全面关税政策后，出于避险需求，美债收益率下行，10Y美债于4日一度触及3.86%低 点。本周以来长债美债利率开始大幅反弹，4月7日至8日两个交易日，美债收益率大幅上行接近30 BP。 这样的美债利率上行幅度，描述近期美债正在经受一轮抛售潮。首先，美债抛售绝非因为经济向好，因 为风险资产正在大幅下跌。美国披露的关税政策显著冲击风险偏好，全球经济增长不确定性加大。美股 为代表的全球股票市场下跌，大宗商品齐跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a bullish long-term outlook on gold, suggesting that the current global order is undergoing a significant transformation, akin to historical periods of major upheaval [2]. Group 1: Introduction and Background - Traditional pricing models for gold are failing to explain its recent price increases, as gold prices have reached new highs despite a strong dollar index [12]. - The article proposes a framework for extreme scenario analysis to assess gold's price elasticity and potential growth under various extreme conditions [15]. Group 2: Extreme Scenario Analysis Scenario 1: Emerging Market Accumulation - Emerging markets are increasingly concerned about the sustainability of U.S. debt, leading to a shift in foreign exchange reserves towards gold [4]. - If emerging markets raise their gold reserves to match developed markets' levels, demand could increase by 15,000 tons, consuming approximately 4-5 years of global gold production [4][19]. Scenario 2: Collapse of Crypto Assets - Bitcoin faces potential threats from quantum computing and policy changes, which could lead to a significant decline in its value [5]. - A hypothetical 20% drop in Bitcoin's market value could result in a massive influx of capital into gold, potentially exhausting the market's liquidity [5][29]. Scenario 3: Shift in Reserve Currency - The dominance of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency may face structural challenges, with a projected decline in its share from 55% to 30% over the next decade [6]. - This shift could lead to an increase in global central bank gold purchases by approximately 30,000 tons, equivalent to 8-9 years of gold production [6][41]. Scenario 4: Escalation of Geopolitical Conflicts - In the event of global military conflicts, gold is expected to be revalued as a safe-haven asset, with historical precedents indicating significant price increases during such crises [7]. - The article posits that a 10% annual increase in global debt could lead to a substantial rise in gold prices, with a median estimate of $28,000 per ounce [7][52]. Scenario 5: Return to the Gold Standard - A return to a gold standard would fundamentally alter the monetary system, linking currency issuance to gold reserves and limiting excessive money printing [8]. - Under this scenario, the price of gold could reach a median estimate of $49,000 per ounce, driven by the need to back a significant amount of global debt with gold [8][58]. Group 3: Conclusion - The analysis suggests that gold may experience significant price increases in response to various extreme scenarios, highlighting its role as a hedge against systemic risks and currency instability [2][15].