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长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250506
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 08:08
棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花:震荡运行 节假日期间,外盘美棉出现大幅上涨,涨幅超过 4.1%,主要原因分析 是美盘 CFTC 基金空头在大幅度减仓,同时小幅度增持多头,导致基金 净空持仓大幅度降低,基金净空从原来的 5 万手降至现在 1.6 万手,商 业持仓多头持仓在减少 6469 手,空头持仓在增加 6576 手,商业净多 为 1.6 万手,目前外盘在经历一番基金空头主导的行情下,逐步获利平 仓,回归正常,另外节假日期间,美国宏观数据显示疲弱,美联储释放 鸽派信号,促进股市和商品有所反弹。五一期间,国内新疆新棉播种已 经结束,并未出现异常天气,今年丰产概率增大。美棉已经进入播种期, 后续 7、8 月美国天气值得关注。从整体上,25、26 年度预期全球依然 是高产年份,由于中美贸易战不确定性,以及全球经济的衰退预期上升, 在消费端存在下滑的可能性,供增需弱,对长远趋势看弱,未来的 6 月份显得比较关键,如果中美握手言和,取消对等关税,美联储开始降 息,行情还有转机的机会,如果不能,则会一直发展不利。节假日期间 国内基本面无变化,节后预期国内棉价反应远远弱于外棉,节后操作建 议,依然是保持谨慎,有反弹做好套 ...
关税战骤然升级,特朗普通电全球,哪怕衰退,也要跟中国拼到底
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-06 07:42
苹果、耐克这些靠中国制造的大厂,股价已经开始坐过山车,特朗普却满不在乎,公开喊话,"宁可经济疼一阵,也不能让中国占便宜!"这话听着豪气,可 背后是无数美国老百姓的钱包在默默流血,特朗普这次不光自己上头,还拉着盟友一起跳火坑,他电话打到欧洲、日本、韩国。 特朗普电话打遍全球盟友,嘴上喊着"公平贸易",手上却挥舞着关税大棒。 他像是铁了心,哪怕世界经济翻车,也要跟中国拼个你死我活。 作者-甜 编辑-甜 特朗普从不按常理出牌,2025年,他二度入主白宫,带着一身"复仇"气息,关税政策直接开挂,过去几年,他跟中国的贸易战已经让全球捏了把汗,但这 次,他直接把关税税率提到夸张的地步,针对中国商品的税率有的高达50%甚至更多,这不是小打小闹。 这是要彻底把中国货挡在美国的门外!他为啥这么狠?说白了,特朗普觉得自己被"欺负"惨了,他嘴上老挂着"美国优先",但私底下,他觉得中国这些年在 全球经济里风头太盛,从5G到新能源车,再到芯片,中国的脚步让他坐立不安,他那颗"让美国再次伟大"的心。 压根容不下中国继续崛起,于是,关税成了他手里的"核武器",一按按钮,全球经济都得抖三抖,可这招真管用吗?华尔街的分析师们已经吓得脸都绿了, ...
住友商事CEO:我们正面临前所未有的全球经济衰退风险。
news flash· 2025-05-01 06:57
住友商事CEO:我们正面临前所未有的全球经济衰退风险。 ...
贺博生:5.1黄金原油双双暴跌最新行情走势分析及今日独家操作建议指导
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-01 00:32
投资市场永远有四个层次:保住本金,控制风险,赚取收益,长期稳定持续赢利。不要因为一天的输赢定结果,赚钱是偶然还是必然,是凭真功夫还是凭运 气,在市场上能活着的肯定是最终能够长期持续赢利的投资者。交易就是一个好的习惯,严格执行你的交易计划。一次严谨的交易=良好的心态控制+正确 的仓位控制+过硬的技术功力,合作从不强买强卖。机会是留给有准备的人,一次正确的选择大于百倍努力, 你相信老师,我给你一个满意收益,你刚好 需要,我刚好专业! 黄金最新行情趋势分析: 黄金消息面解析:周三(4月30日)北美时段,现货黄金价格维持盘整态势,交投于3306美元附近。继美国总统特朗普签署行政令放松汽车零部件关税,并 表示贸易谈判取得进展后,黄金出现连续第二天获利回吐现象。随着贸易紧张局势缓和迹象增多,金价上涨势头似乎正在减弱。短期展望:金价可能在 3260-3380美元区间内维持整理态势。如果美联储在5月会议上释放更强烈的降息信号,或全球贸易紧张局势再度升级,金价有望突破3500美元关口,向3600 美元挺进。然而,如果贸易紧张局势进一步缓和,以及美国经济数据好转导致美联储推迟降息,金价可能面临更深度回调,甚至测试3100美元心理 ...
“五一”经济|假期可低油价出行!今晚成品油调价搁浅,汽柴油每升约7元
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 09:22
Group 1 - The geopolitical situation is overall easing, and global oil demand is declining, while OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production, leading to a higher probability of a price reduction in the next round of refined oil price adjustments [1][4] - Domestic refined oil prices have undergone nine rounds of adjustments, showing a pattern of "three increases, four decreases, and two stasis," resulting in a year-to-date decrease of 425 yuan/ton for gasoline and 410 yuan/ton for diesel compared to the end of 2024 [2] - The recent price adjustment coincides with the "May Day" holiday, allowing private car owners to travel at lower fuel costs [2] Group 2 - During the current pricing cycle, the international oil price change rate has been narrowing, with the average price of reference crude oil at 64.82 yuan/barrel and a change rate of 0.65% as of April 30 [4] - Despite some upward pressure on international oil prices due to U.S. sanctions on Iranian liquefied petroleum gas and a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies are overshadowing global economic growth and fuel demand prospects [4] - The next price adjustment window will open on May 19, with expectations of a price reduction due to the overall easing of geopolitical tensions and OPEC+'s stance on increasing production [4]
年内第二次搁浅,本轮成品油价不作调整
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 07:10
智通财经记者 | 田鹤琪 国内成品油价迎年内第二次搁浅。 4月30,国家发改委发布消息称,根据近期国际市场油价变化情况,按照现行成品油价格形成机制,本次国内汽、柴油 价格(标准品)不作调整。相关价格联动及补贴政策按现行规定执行。价格执行时间自今日24时起。 本轮是2025年第九次调价,也是年内的第二次搁浅。本次调价过后,2025年成品油调价将呈现"三涨四跌两搁浅"的格 局。 据卓创资讯测算,4月29日收盘,国内第10个工作日参考原油变化率0.66%,预计汽柴油上调30元/吨,因本周期内原油 变化率对应的汽柴油零售限价调整幅度不足50元/吨,不满足50元/吨的调价必要条件。 本计价周期以来,国际原油价格走势震荡下行,国内测算的原油变化率正值区间不断回落。 图片来源:隆众资 讯 下一轮成品油价存在下调概率。 隆众资讯表示,展望后市,全球经济面临衰退风险,市场对需求前景仍不乐观,且美国与伊朗谈判进展顺利、俄乌和谈 也出现转机,地缘局势整体趋于缓和。此外,欧佩克+维持增产立场,也打压业者心态。整体来看,预计下一轮成品油 调价下调的概率较大。 卓创资讯成品油分析师高青翠分析认为,未来美联储大概率维持高利率,且美国贸易政 ...
需求旺季缓慢修复 短期锌价格反弹但上方空间有限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-04-29 08:45
数据显示,4月29日上海0#锌锭现货价格报价22970.00元/吨,相较于期货主力价格(22550.00元/吨)升 水420.00元/吨。 (4月29日)今日全国锌价格一览表 期货市场上看,4月29日收盘,沪锌期货主力合约报22550.00元/吨,涨幅0.16%,最高触及22610.00元/ 吨,最低下探22465.00元/吨,日内成交量达103421手。 分析观点: 广州期货研报:美方对中方的对等关税征收态度发生松动,表示将降低关税或实行关税分级政策,中方 对待美方滥收关税行为表示坚决抵制,中美市场近期公布经济数据表现超预期,交投市场对全球经济衰 退担忧减弱,市场交易情绪回暖。秘鲁ANTA锌矿遭遇事故影响生产,海内外TC价格保持,矿端远期有 较大增量预期,但从部分地区报的TC水平上看,矿端暂未进入供应宽松周期,国内精炼锌供应相对紧 张,3月冶炼开工环比小幅走增但同比数据为负,现货某高端牌号缺货,整体市场报出较高升水,周度 社库出现小幅累増,下游需求上看,镀锌开工较好,氧化锌、锌合金开工情况平平。锌价供应未有明显 超预期增量,需求旺季缓慢修复,在远期供应过剩的压力之下,短期价格反弹但上方空间有限, | 规格 ...
西南期货早间评论-20250428
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 02:57
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and industrial and agricultural products, providing market trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies for each [5][8][10]. - Overall, the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, economic policies, and supply - demand relationships, with different commodities showing different trends and investment opportunities [6][8][22]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 91 billion yuan. The government plans to implement more active fiscal and monetary policies [5]. - Although external environment is favorable for bond futures, current bond yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, so it is recommended to be cautious [6]. - It is expected that the fluctuation range will increase, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stocks - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risk increases, domestic asset valuations are low and policies have hedging space [8]. - It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests waiting for long - entry opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The US consumer confidence index and inflation expectations have certain impacts [10]. - The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and tariff environment are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is still optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and it is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait for new long - entry opportunities [10][11]. Industrial Metals - **Steel Products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil)**: Last trading day, prices slightly declined. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses demand, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. Valuations are low, and there are signs of technical support. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: Last trading day, prices slightly adjusted. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. Valuations are relatively high. It is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Last trading day, prices slightly declined. Coking coal supply is loose, while coke demand has improved to some extent. There are signs of a technical bottom. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: Last trading day, prices declined. Manganese ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply - demand situation of ferroalloys is gradually improving. It is recommended to consider call options on manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities on silicon iron [18][19]. - **Copper**: Last trading day, prices rose. The cooling of tariff disputes and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in June support prices. It is expected that prices will be strong, and long - entry operations are recommended [48][49]. - **Tin**: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, price fluctuations have intensified. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, and demand is good. It is expected that prices will fluctuate, and risk control is needed [50][51]. - **Nickel**: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, the market sentiment is pessimistic. The supply side has cost support, but demand may weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to control risks and wait and see [52]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Last trading day, prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and costs are expected to decrease. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds [53][55]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Last trading day, prices fluctuated upward. The increase in net long positions of speculators and the increase in the number of oil and gas rigs are noteworthy. The Sino - US negotiation and OPEC's production policy are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [20][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: Last trading day, prices followed crude oil and fluctuated higher. The high - sulfur fuel oil market may enter the peak demand season, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is stable. Due to the sanctions on Russia, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight. It is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and costs are stable. It is expected that prices will fluctuate [26][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: Last trading day, prices showed mixed performance. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile [29][30]. - **PVC**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply pressure eases, demand recovers weakly, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [31][33]. - **Urea**: Last trading day, prices declined. Agricultural demand will weaken seasonally, and new production capacity will be released. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile in the short term [34][35]. - **PX**: Last trading day, prices rose. PX device maintenance reduces supply, and downstream demand improves. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [36][37]. - **PTA**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply increases, demand improvement is less than expected, and costs provide support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, inventory removal is difficult, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [39][40]. - **Short - Fiber**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and costs provide limited support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: Last trading day, prices rose. Raw material prices recover, supply increases slightly, and demand improves. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [42]. - **Soda Ash**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that the market will remain weak in the short term [43]. - **Glass**: Last trading day, prices declined. Production lines are at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that the market sentiment will be weak [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: Last trading day, prices declined. Some large - scale devices are under maintenance, demand from the alumina industry is limited, and the market turns weak again [45]. - **Pulp**: Last trading day, prices declined slightly. Inventory accumulates, downstream start - up rates vary, and the market is weak and volatile [46]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Last trading day, soybean meal prices declined, and soybean oil prices rose. Argentine weather is favorable for soybean harvesting, and domestic soybean supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and consider call options on soybean oil at the bottom [56][57]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. Domestic imports increase, and inventory accumulates. It is recommended to wait and see [58][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Inventory shows different trends. It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [61][62]. - **Cotton**: Last trading day, prices fluctuated. The spring sowing of Xinjiang cotton is almost completed, and weather is a key factor. Textile exports are affected by tariffs. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds in the long - term [63][68]. - **Sugar**: Last trading day, domestic sugar prices rose slightly, and international sugar prices rose significantly. Indian sugar production is lower than expected, and domestic supply pressure is not large. It is recommended to wait and see [70][72]. - **Apple**: Last trading day, prices rose significantly. Inventory is low, consumption is good, and spot prices are strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels after corrections [74][75]. - **Pig**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, consumption is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions [76][78]. - **Egg**: Last trading day, prices were stable. Egg supply is expected to increase, and consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [79][80]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Last trading day, prices rose. Corn supply is still under pressure in the short term, but the bottom is supported. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [81][83]. - **Log**: Last trading day, prices rose. Log prices decline, inventory is relatively neutral, and the real - estate market is in the destocking cycle. The spot market provides weak support for the futures market [84][85].
西南期货早间评论-20250424
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-04-24 02:57
2025 年 4 月 24 日星期四 地址: 电话: 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层; 023-67070250 上一交易日,国债期货收盘全线下跌,30 年期主力合约跌 0.40%,10 年期主力合 约跌 0.17%,5 年期主力合约跌 0.13%,2 年期主力合约跌 0.04%。 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A; 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 国债: | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指: | .. | N | | 贵金属: | .. | | | 螺纹、热卷: . | | | | 铁矿石: . | | | | 焦煤焦炭: | | | | 铁合金: | . | | | 原油: | | | | 燃料油: | | | | 合成橡胶: | | | | 天然橡胶: | .. | 1 | | PVC: | .. | 1 | | 尿素: | | 1 | | 对二甲苯 PX: | | 1 | | PTA: . | | | | 乙二醇: . | | | | 短纤: | .. | 1: | | 瓶片: | .. | 1 | | 纯碱: | . | 1: ...
有色金属日报-20250416
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-04-16 01:31
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The tariff war between the US and China has a significant impact on the non - ferrous metals market, with macro factors bringing continuous influence. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions due to their own supply - demand fundamentals and tariff impacts [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE copper 05 contract rose 0.16% to 75,970 yuan/ton. Tariff issues initially led to a sharp decline in copper prices and then a rebound. Fundamentally, downstream restocking was active when prices fell, but copper concentrate supply was still tight. Satellite data showed a significant decline in global copper smelting activities in March. The previous tight supply expectation in China may change. In the long - term, tariff impacts may lower market demand and the copper price center may shift down. Next week, SHFE copper will maintain a wide - range and relatively strong oscillation, and interval trading is recommended [2] - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices fell, and trading was weak. Sellers tried to maintain prices, while downstream buyers pressed prices and made few purchases [8] - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,840 tons to 92,209 tons, and LME copper inventories increased by 4,650 tons to 212,475 tons [18] Aluminum - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE aluminum 06 contract fell 0.61% to 19,595 yuan/ton. Ore supply improved and prices declined. Alumina operating capacity decreased by 4.9 million tons to 86.15 million tons, and inventory increased by 53,000 tons to 3.443 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 35,000 tons to 4.4079 million tons. Domestic downstream processing enterprise operating rates decreased, and inventory declined on Monday. Due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy changes [3] - In the spot market, aluminum prices fell, trading was not good, sellers tried to maintain prices, and downstream demand slightly recovered. In the afternoon, the market turned to a wait - and - see attitude, and overall trading was limited [9] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,524 tons to 101,189 tons, and LME aluminum inventories decreased by 825 tons to 439,325 tons [18] Nickel - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel 05 contract rose 1.05% to 124,240 yuan/ton. The US consumer confidence index declined, and tariff policies damaged the global trade environment. Nickel ore costs increased, and supply was affected by rainfall in the Philippines. In March, national refined nickel production increased by 39.12% year - on - year, with an oversupply situation. Nickel iron prices corrected, and the oversupply pattern expanded. In April, 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The market was in the off - season. Sulfuric acid nickel costs increased, but demand was weak. As nickel has fallen close to the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see [4][6] - In the spot market, nickel prices rose. The ccmn Yangtze River Composite 1 nickel price was 123,400 - 127,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 125,450 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan from the previous day [15] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts increased by 237 tons to 25,884 tons, and LME nickel inventories decreased by 1,554 tons to 202,818 tons [18] Tin - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE tin 05 contract fell 0.31% to 258,990 yuan/ton. The upcoming resumption of production in Congo put pressure on prices. In March, domestic refined tin production increased by 7.3% month - on - month. Tin concentrate imports from January to February decreased by 13% year - on - year. Indonesian refined tin exports increased in February. The semiconductor industry was expected to recover. Inventories were at a medium level. It is expected that price fluctuations will increase, and interval operation is recommended, with the reference range for the SHFE tin 05 contract being 240,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [7] - In the spot market, tin prices fell, and trading was limited as merchants mainly waited and saw [16] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts increased by 146 tons to 9,670 tons, and LME tin inventories decreased by 245 tons to 2,845 tons [18] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead) Zinc - In the spot market, zinc prices fell. Zinc price declines stimulated restocking, and spot premiums strengthened, but trading sentiment was weak, and restocking volumes were limited [12] - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts increased by 775 tons to 7,658 tons, and LME zinc inventories decreased by 5,275 tons to 112,025 tons [18] Lead - In the spot market, lead prices fell, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, with overall flat consumption [13][14] - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 145 tons to 58,378 tons, and LME lead inventories increased by 8,225 tons to 265,550 tons [18] Alumina - On April 15, alumina prices in different regions remained unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot market was lightly traded, sellers maintained prices, and downstream buyers mainly pressed prices for rigid - need purchases [10][11]