城乡收入差距同样是一种发展现象。无论是农业经济还是以农业占主导的农村经济，在工业化和城镇化 过程中必然经历生产要素向外转移的过程，这也是资源重新配置的过程，最集中地表现为剩余劳动力的 转移，由此农业劳动生产率和国民经济整体劳动生产率同时得以提高。农业经营规模扩大、农业机械化 水平提高和剩余劳动力充分转移，可能由于各种因素受到阻碍，或者产生不协调现象，造成农业劳动生 产率提高速度滞后于非农产业的情形，导致务农收益偏低，最终表现为城乡收入差距扩大。例如，2024 年占劳动力总数22.2%的农业劳动力，仅生产了占GDP比重6.8%的农业增加值，这展示了农业劳动生产 率偏低的事实，由此可以理解为什么务农收入无法实现同非农产业收入的同步提高。同年在农户可支配 收入中，来自务农等家庭经营收入的比重仅为33.9%，显著低于工资性收入的比重42.4%。 基尼系数是一个综合性的指标，主要由农村收入差距、城镇收入差距和城乡之间收入差距三部分构成， 在统计意义上相对完整地反映全社会的收入分配状况。长期以来，城乡收入比率是整体收入差距的一个 主要的贡献因素。在21世纪第一个十年末收入差距达到最高点之前，城乡收入比率的变化同基尼系数保 ...

发展新质生产力是推动高质量发展的内在要求和重要着力点。党的二十届四中全会审议通过的"十 五五"规划建议将"高质量发展取得显著成效"作为"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标之一，提出"发 展新质生产力、构建新发展格局、建设现代化经济体系取得重大突破"，为抢抓新一轮科技革命和产业 变革历史机遇提供了指引。 新质生产力是创新起主导作用，具有高技术、高效能、高质量特征的先进生产力质态。确保在发展 新质生产力上取得重大突破，直接关系着经济社会发展的质量和效益，关系着我国在全球政治经济格局 中的地位和发展空间。 这是实现全要素生产率大幅提升的关键。全要素生产率是观察一国经济发展质量的重要指标，反映 的是经济活动效率的整体状况，通常被作为比较各国经济发展情况的重要参考依据。从世界范围看，无 论是产业结构变迁，还是国家间竞争比较优势转换，无不是全要素生产率变化的结果。新质生产力以全 要素生产率大幅提升为核心标志，确保在发展新质生产力上取得重大突破，将为提高全要素生产率提供 强劲推动力、支撑力。 这是抢占新一轮科技革命先机的关键。回望历史，由技术革命性突破推动的生产力发展，成为人类 经济社会发展的主要推动力和世界政治经济秩序调 ...

从载体角度看，我国拥有产业体系配套完整优势。科技进步不是凭空发生的，重大科技创新必须依托于 雄厚的产业基础和广泛的生产实践。有研究表明，脱离制造业根基的研发难以拥有持久的生命力。这也 是世界一些发达经济体着力推动再工业化的原因之一。在理念上，我国强调，不论经济发展到什么时 候，实体经济都是我国经济发展、我们在国际经济竞争中赢得主动的根基。在实践中，我国制造业增加 值占全球比重已接近30%，总体规模连续15年保持全球第一；全球504种主要工业产品中，我国大多数 产品产量居第一位。完整产业体系优势为新质生产力发展取得重大突破奠定重要基础。 发展新质生产力是推动高质量发展的内在要求和重要着力点。党的二十届四中全会审议通过的"十五 五"规划建议将"高质量发展取得显著成效"作为"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标之一，提出"发展 新质生产力、构建新发展格局、建设现代化经济体系取得重大突破"，为抢抓新一轮科技革命和产业变 革历史机遇提供了指引。 新质生产力是创新起主导作用，具有高技术、高效能、高质量特征的先进生产力质态。确保在发展新质 生产力上取得重大突破，直接关系着经济社会发展的质量和效益，关系着我国在全球政治经济格局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the "Opinions" by the National Data Bureau aims to enhance the construction of data element disciplines and digital talent teams, focusing on improving total factor productivity and developing new quality productivity to accelerate the high-quality development of China's digital economy [1][11]. Group 1: Importance of "Two Constructions" for High-Quality Development - Enhancing total factor productivity is a core indicator of developing new quality productivity and is essential for high-quality development [2][13]. - The growth of total factor productivity is driven by technological revolutions, resource allocation efficiency improvements, new industrialization, new infrastructure, carbon neutrality, and deeper reforms [2][13]. - Empowering artificial intelligence with data and deepening the market-oriented reform of data elements are crucial for strengthening and optimizing the digital economy [2][13]. Group 2: Digital Talent Development - There is a structural contradiction in the supply and demand of digital talent in China, with a gap of 25 to 30 million digital talents in 2023, which is expanding annually [3][14]. - The development of the digital economy requires a deep integration of education, talent, industry, and innovation chains [3][14]. - The "Opinions" emphasize the need for a multi-level, composite digital talent training system to activate the value of data elements [4][15]. Group 3: Multi-Pathways for Digital Talent Cultivation - The "Opinions" stress the importance of creating a collaborative ecosystem for industry-education integration, supporting partnerships between universities, research institutions, and enterprises [7][17]. - It encourages the establishment of data-related disciplines in higher education and the development of a talent training mechanism that connects undergraduate, master's, and doctoral programs [5][16]. - The focus is on practical training and interdisciplinary knowledge to meet the diverse needs of different industries [8][18]. Group 4: Organized Research in Data Field - The release of data value faces theoretical and practical challenges, necessitating innovation in theory and practice to enhance total factor productivity [9][19]. - The rapid development of AI as a core technology in the new round of technological revolution requires deep integration with vast amounts of data [9][19]. - The "Opinions" outline the main research directions in the data field, emphasizing interdisciplinary integration and organized research to solidify the foundation of scientific research [10][20].

Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the potential for China's economy to achieve stable medium- to long-term growth driven by total factor productivity improvements and the rise of new economic sectors [1][2]. Economic Outlook - China's average GDP growth over the past few years has been around 5%, supported by structural changes such as strong export performance despite U.S. tariffs and a transition from old to new economic sectors [2][3]. - The share of consumption in GDP is expected to increase relative to investment from 2022 to 2024, indicating a shift in the economic growth model [2]. - The real estate sector's contribution to GDP has decreased from over 20% at its peak to 15%, with ongoing adjustments expected [2]. Industry Development - Traditional consumer goods and manufacturing markets are saturated, while new consumer categories and services show significant growth potential [3]. - The export structure has shifted from low-end products to mid-range machinery and high-end products, contributing to export resilience [3]. Social Considerations - To ensure equitable economic development, efforts should be made to reduce disparities in social security and per capita consumption between urban and rural areas [3]. Future Growth Projections - The average potential growth rate for China is projected to remain above 4% over the next decade, with a target for per capita GDP to double [3][4]. - Historical data indicates that total factor productivity has experienced rapid growth during key periods of economic reform, characterized by increased marketization, optimized resource allocation, and heightened competition [3].

今年"两重"建设共安排8000亿元支持1459个项目，涉及长江流域生态修复等"硬投资"，也包含完善国家 物流枢纽规划布局等"软建设"；今年超长期特别国债支持设备更新的投资补助资金已支持约8400个项 目，带动总投资超1万亿元，资金撬动效应达1∶5.3…… 投资是经济增长的重要推动力。今年1至10月，扣除价格因素，固定资产投资保持小幅增长。从结构来 看，1至10月，制造业投资同比增长2.7%，增速快于全部投资，航空航天器及设备制造业投资同比增长 19.7%，信息服务业投资增长32.7%，说明我国产业转型升级领域投资仍具有强劲动力。 扩大有效投资是一项关系发展全局的系统工程，政府与市场需携手共进，政府投资要在打基础、利长 远、补短板、调结构上加大力度，也要激发民间投资活力，提高民间投资比重。"十四五"收官在 即、"十五五"蓝图将展之际，多地加快谋划推进一批重大工程项目。针对扩大民间投资，国务院办公厅 近期印发文件，从扩大准入、打通堵点、强化保障三个方面提出了13项政策举措。相信各方合力必将助 推有效投资更好发挥关键作用，为扩大国内需求、经济高质量发展注入强劲动力。 《 人民日报 》（ 2025年12月08日 17 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 12 月 7 日 2026 年中国资产定价锚有望重回增长端 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，1）高频数据显示 11 月出口增速或出现明显反弹，仍为年末经济的 主要亮点。2）中央政治局会议与中央经济工作会议即将召开，预计年内暂无 进一步的稳增长政策。3）近期人民币呈现加速升值迹象，主要在于 11 月下旬 中美元首通话释放积极信号，叠加美联储 12 月降息强化、四季度处于结汇高 峰。 1、《固定资产投资增速或仍偏 弱 — — 宏观经济预测报告 （2025 年 11 月）》2025-12-06 2、《服务消费淡季回调明显— ——2025 年 11 月 PMI 点评》 2025-12-01 3、《企业盈利修复出现波折— ——2025 年 10 月工业企业利润 分析》2025-11-28 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 马瑞超 S1090522100002 maruichao@cmschina.com. ...

景顺方面认为，各国央行政策分化令美元走弱。美元走软叠加全球增长改善、新兴市场通胀压力减轻， 有望利好明年新兴市场资产表现。此外，美联储2026年预期降息也将为新兴市场央行创造进一步降息的 空间，从而刺激内需，提振股市。 在赵耀庭看来，在今年早些时候，已经出现了新兴市场表现超越发达市场的情况，但后面很快又被逆 转。这主要是因为美国的AI叙事特别火爆。此外，在"对等关税"后推出的关税措施也造成了趋势的逆 转。 赵耀庭看好中国股票。"中国及其他亚洲市场在2025年已展现强劲表现，多项资产类别有望在2026年延 续这一势头。在政策支持利好、基本面持续改善的背景下，亚洲市场为投资者提供了具吸引力的多元化 配置和再平衡部署的投资机会。"赵耀庭说。 中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 赵耀庭还指出，在2025年的大部分时间里，我们都持续看好中国股市。而且中国股市在过去18个月里大 幅上涨。明年，可能不会出现这么大幅度的上升，但是外国投资者对中国股市的兴趣依然非常浓厚。所 以外国投资者对中国股票的需求和兴趣都在上升。 "预计2026年美联储还会降息三次，再加上今年12月的降息，四次共计降息100个基点。"12月4日，景顺 亚太区全球 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the integration of three securities firms under the Huijin system, marking a significant event in the domestic securities industry and indicating a shift towards creating globally competitive investment banks [12][2][11]. Core Points and Arguments - **Integration of Securities Firms**: The merger of the three firms sets a record for the largest single integration in China's securities industry, signaling the start of a fourth wave of mergers and acquisitions aimed at enhancing competitiveness on a global scale [12][2]. - **Market Adjustments**: The market experienced a correction after six consecutive months of gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping approximately 2% as of November 28. This adjustment is seen as a normal market behavior following a prolonged uptrend [8][9]. - **Sector Performance**: The technology sector, particularly the STAR 50 Index, has seen a significant pullback of about 17% from its October peak, indicating a broader trend of profit-taking among investors [8][9]. - **Long-term Market Outlook**: Analysts from Guotai Junan Securities express optimism about the long-term growth potential of the Chinese capital market, suggesting that the market is in a developmental cycle with significant upward potential for stock indices [9][10]. - **Policy Focus for 2026**: Attention is shifting towards the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, which will set the economic agenda for 2026. Investors are advised to remain cautious and await clearer policy signals [10][11]. - **Investment Opportunities**: There is a recommendation to focus on traditional manufacturing and resource sectors, with particular emphasis on industries where China holds a competitive advantage, such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [11][12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Consumer Spending and Economic Growth**: The government is implementing measures to enhance consumer spending, which is crucial for driving economic growth. The focus is on improving the supply-demand balance in the consumer goods market [47][51]. - **Currency Strength**: The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, reaching a one-year high, which is attributed to a weaker dollar environment and strong performance in the domestic equity market [50]. - **Sector-Specific Growth**: The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a significant recovery, with upstream research services seeing substantial performance improvements due to better financing conditions and recovering industrial demand [17]. - **Agricultural Modernization**: The Dayaogu Group is positioning itself as a leader in agricultural modernization, leveraging technology to enhance productivity and quality in the food supply chain [6]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the strategic movements within the securities industry, market trends, and broader economic indicators that could influence investment decisions.

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 未来什么样？ ——基于高收入经济体的经济特征比较 ❖ 核心结论 高收入经济体的核心特征在于普遍保持全要素生产率持续增长。而实现这一 特征的关键因素在于： 1、产业结构转型的角度看，服务业先行、工业保持优势地位，能够保证转型 过程中全社会生产率不受损。 2、技术进步的角度看，高收入经济体，特别是以日本、新加坡等为代表的追 赶型经济体在科研与教育上投入力度极大；产品出口附加值也大幅高于以欧 美为代表的传统高收入经济体；科技立国促进了生产率的稳定提升。 3、要素配置效率的角度看。高收入经济体的政府调控地位不低、且更廉洁的 政府也更有利于制度的优化。人口方面，移民净流入也实现人口要素的优化。 本文基于全要素生产率，从影响全要素生产率的技术进步、人力资本积累、产 业结构转型、要素配置效率提升等角度出发，寻找高收入经济体的经济特征。 在分析中，我们将高收入经济体可进一步分为 2 类：传统高收入经济体与追赶 型经济体，分别对应 1965 年（含）就已经达到且稳定处于高收入水平的经济 体和 1965 年之后达到高收入水平的经济体。为与之形成对比，我们构建了中 等收入经济体样本，即连续 1 ...