Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term decline**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [2][5][7] - **Short - term adjustment**: Palm oil [2][10] - **Rebound under pressure**: Cotton [2] - **Short - term rebound**: Live pigs, red dates [2][3] Core Views - **Soybean meal**: In the first quarter, the estimated imports are expected to decline year - on - year, and the cost of importing US soybeans has increased, making domestic spot prices resistant to decline. The soft inventory of US soybeans, along with increased area, production, and end - of - season inventory, has led to a decline in US soybeans. The continuous decline of rapeseed meal has also dragged down soybean meal. However, supported by cost and stocking demand, the short - term adjustment space is limited [2][6]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The pressure on rapeseed meal spot inventory has eased, and supply is tight. Although the January USDA report reduced the global rapeseed production and end - of - season inventory month - on - month, the upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the expectation of canceling oil and meal tariffs have affected the market. After an overnight rebound, attention should be paid to the results of the China - Canada meeting from the 13th to the 17th [2][9]. - **Palm oil**: Domestic spot trading is light. Indonesia's announcement that it will not implement the B50 policy in 2026 has dampened market bullish sentiment. Fortunately, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month increased month - on - month. Palm oil is in a short - term adjustment phase, and short - long opportunities after the adjustment can be noted [2][11]. - **Soybean oil**: Domestic soybean oil inventory has decreased month - on - month but is still higher than the five - year average. Pre - holiday stocking has led to good domestic spot trading. However, the bearish data from the US soybean side and the decline of palm oil have caused soybean oil to decline. Bullish sentiment should be put on hold for now, and attention should be paid to when palm oil stops falling [2][4]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The market is weak externally and strong internally. The suspension of China - Canada rapeseed trade has tightened domestic supply, but the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the expectation of canceling oil and meal tariffs have suppressed market bullish sentiment. After a significant overnight rebound, attention should be paid to the results of the China - Canada meeting this week [2]. - **Cotton**: The January USDA data is moderately bullish for the ICE market. The decline of the US dollar index and the strength of external commodities support the cotton market, and the US cotton market is expected to be strong in the short term. In China, new cotton processing is basically completed, and the sales progress has slowed down. The pressure on raw material inventory has increased, and attention should be paid to the suppression of the market by the further deterioration of textile enterprises' profits. In the short term, the market is expected to rebound under pressure, and in the long - term, prices are expected to continue to recover [2][13][15]. - **Red dates**: Recently, the spot market has been dull. With the peak of new product listing and the arrival of the consumption season, market fluctuations have increased. High inventory levels are still putting pressure on the rebound of jujube prices. In a supply - demand surplus situation, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. In the short term, the bearish trend has slowed down, and short - term rebound opportunities can be noted [2][17]. - **Live pigs**: In mid - to - early January, the market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand. Recently, affected by the entry of second - fattening pigs and the reduction of group sales volume, the spot market still has some support in the short term, and the supply - side pressure will be postponed to the end of January to February. Attention should be paid to the demand before the Spring Festival. For contracts, after the 01 contract enters delivery, focus on the 03 contract; the 05 contract has a weak supply - demand pattern; the 09 and 11 contracts are in a short - term data vacuum period and should be observed [2][3][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, national port soybean inventory was 802.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.8 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 713.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.87 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 108.56 million tons. The soybean meal inventory was 104.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.62 million tons [6]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2751 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3204.29 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 1.15 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of January 9, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [9]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2289 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2455.26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.95 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 73.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 million tons [11]. - **Export**: From January 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased month - on - month [11]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from the previous day. The national average price was 8633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Cotton - **International**: The January USDA report had a moderately bullish impact on the global cotton market. In the 2025/2026 season, global cotton production was revised down by 7.8 million tons, consumption was revised up by 6.7 million tons, and the end - of - season inventory was revised down by 32.4 million tons [13]. - **Domestic**: New cotton picking is basically completed, with a ginned cotton inspection volume exceeding 6.6 million tons. The national total production is expected to increase by 26 million tons to 7.68 million tons. The new - season lint cost is basically locked between 14,600 - 15,200 yuan/ton, and the sales progress has slowed down [14]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2605) closed at 14,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15,972 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Red Dates - **Supply and Demand**: The acquisition in the production area is almost over, and market supply has increased. It has entered the winter consumption season. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349 tons, but still higher than the same period last year [17]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2605) closed at 9040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot prices in different regions remained stable [16]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In January, the planned slaughter of sample enterprises is expected to decrease, but there is still pressure on the supply side, especially at the end of January. The number of new - born piglets in December increased, and the inventory of breeding sows decreased [19]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (lh2603) closed at 11,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 12,740 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three sectors (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Core Views - The cotton market lacks positive drivers and faces pressure from downstream transmission and internal - external price differentials in the short term. In the long term, its upward potential depends on policy implementation [2][3] - The sugar market is in a state of global surplus in the 25/26 season. Although the short - term trade flow is tight, the medium - term outlook is bearish. The long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Currently, domestic sugar is in a state of supply increase, and the short - to - medium - term price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5][6] - The pulp market has continuous overseas supply disruptions. With the expectation of pre - Spring Festival restocking, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,810 yuan/ton yesterday, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,717 yuan/ton, up 217 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 907, up 167 from the previous day; the national average price of 3128B cotton was 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 1160, up 137 from the previous day. From January 5th to 11th, the number of ginning mills in Xinjiang that ended processing increased, and the processing volume continued to decline. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton was 6.78 yuan/kg, down 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of January 11th, 1096 cotton processing enterprises nationwide had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.784 million tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, with high supply pressure and weak global textile consumption. The ICE U.S. cotton is expected to be under pressure in the short term, but has limited downward space in the long term. Domestically, China's cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and the commercial inventory is seasonally rising. Although the pre - festival stocking by yarn mills and traders is active, downstream orders and product sales have decreased, and the inventory in the industrial chain, especially at the grey fabric end, has increased significantly. For the whole year, domestic cotton consumption has increased due to the expansion of yarn spindle capacity, and the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of inventory tightening at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Be vigilant against the risk of high - level callbacks in the short term. The long - term upward space depends on the implementation of relevant policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5299 yuan/ton yesterday, up 46 yuan/ton (+0.88%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 + 71, down 36 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 - 69, down 46 from the previous day. In the first half of December, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.894 million tons (-32.83%); the sugar production was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 102,000 tons (-28.76%) [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in a surplus in the 25/26 season. In the short term, the tight trade flow in the first quarter may support the raw sugar price. In the medium term, the surplus pattern will suppress the market. In the long term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and there are still uncertainties in the weather in 2026 and the planting area in Thailand. In China, sugar production has increased for the third consecutive year, and the pre - festival stocking demand may support the price. However, the import pressure is high, and the amount of syrup has not decreased significantly [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short - to - medium term, although the valuation is low, there is still a possibility of another bottom - seeking, but the overall downward space is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5494 yuan/ton yesterday, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 + 56, down 2 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Urals and Bratsk) was 5135 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 - 359, down 2 from the previous day. Yesterday, the imported wood pulp spot market stabilized, with weak trading volume [7] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, there have been continuous news of overseas pulp mill shutdowns and maintenance at the end of 2025. In terms of demand, the inventory of wood pulp in European ports continued to decline in November, and the demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation this year, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory has been at a historical high. However, the port inventory decreased slightly in December, and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity will generate marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to gradually stabilize [8] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. With continuous overseas supply disruptions and the expectation of pre - Spring Festival restocking, the short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the soybean market is experiencing a downturn due to unexpected increases in U.S. soybean production estimates and decreases in export forecasts by the USDA, leading to a rise in ending stocks [1][2] - CBOT soybean futures saw a significant decline, with March contracts closing at $10.49 per bushel, down 13.5 cents, and reaching a low of $10.43 per bushel, the lowest since January 2 [1] - The USDA raised the U.S. soybean production estimate to 4.262 billion bushels and lowered the export forecast to 1.575 billion bushels, resulting in an increase in ending stocks to 350 million bushels [2] Group 2 - The Dalian soybean meal futures market showed a near-term strength but long-term weakness, with the main contract closing at 2,761 yuan per ton, down 29 yuan, and a trading volume of 1,180,639 [1][2] - Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell by 10-20 yuan per ton, influenced by the USDA's supply and demand report, despite a strong market sentiment anticipating tighter future supplies [2] - Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach a record high of 178 million tons, with the harvest progress at 0.6% as of January 8, surpassing last year's 0.3% [2] Group 3 - The CBOT corn futures market experienced a sharp decline of over 5%, with March contracts closing at $4.21-1/4 per bushel, down 24.25 cents, following an unexpected increase in U.S. corn production estimates by the USDA [4][5] - The USDA raised the U.S. corn production estimate to 17.021 billion bushels, exceeding analyst expectations and surpassing the previous record of 15.340 billion bushels [5] - Domestic corn prices showed a slight upward trend, with trading in North China being cautious but supported by limited supply and rising trader sentiment [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest data and trends in the global oilseeds and oils market, including soybean, palm oil, and rapeseed. There are changes in production, inventory, and export data of major countries, which will have an impact on the market supply and demand situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025/26 Annual US Soybean Information - The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/26 is 350 million bushels, up from 290 million bushels in December [1]. - The estimated planted area is 81.2 million acres, and the harvested area is 80.4 million acres, both slightly increased compared to December [1]. - The estimated yield per acre is 53 bushels, the same as in December [1]. - The estimated production is 4.262 billion bushels, up from 4.253 billion bushels in December [1]. - The estimated export volume is 1.575 billion bushels, down from 1.635 billion bushels in December [1]. 3.2 2025/26 Annual Global Soybean Information - Brazil's estimated soybean production in 2025/26 is 178 million tons, up from 175 million tons in December, and the estimated export volume is 114 million tons, up from 112.5 million tons in December [1]. - Argentina's estimated soybean production is 48.5 million tons, and the estimated export volume is 8.25 million tons, both unchanged from December [1]. - China's estimated soybean import volume is 112 million tons, unchanged from December [1]. - The global estimated soybean production is 425.68 million tons, up from 422.54 million tons in December, and the estimated ending inventory is 124.41 million tons, up from 122.37 million tons in December [1]. 3.3 US Soybean Inventory on December 1, 2025 - The total soybean inventory in the US on December 1, 2025, was 3.29 billion bushels, a 6% increase from 3.1 billion bushels on December 1, 2024 [1]. - The on - farm inventory was 1.576 billion bushels, a 2% increase from the previous year, and the off - farm inventory was 1.714 billion bushels, a 10% increase from the previous year [1]. - The apparent consumption of soybeans from September to November 2025 was 1.3 billion bushels, a 20% decrease from the previous year [1]. 3.4 US Soybean Export Inspection Volume - As of the week ending January 8, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1,529,707 tons, higher than the market expectation of 800,000 - 1,275,000 tons [1]. - The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 901,118 tons, accounting for 58.91% of the total [1]. - So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume is 17,934,546 tons, compared with 31,324,934 tons in the same period of the previous year [1]. 3.5 Brazil's Soybean Harvest and Export - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 0.6%, better than 0.3% in the same period of the previous year [1]. - Brazil exported 645,737.53 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of January, with an average daily export volume of 107,622.92 tons, a 121% increase from the average daily export volume in January of the previous year [1]. 3.6 Malaysia's Palm Oil Situation - From January 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased by 18% compared to the same period of the previous month, while the production decreased by 20.49% [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December 2025 soared to a nearly seven - year high, reaching 3.05 million tons, a 7.58% increase from the previous month [1]. - The palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% to 1.83 million tons, but it was still the highest output in December in eight years [1]. - The palm oil export in December increased by 8.52% to 1.32 million tons, reversing the decline of the previous month [1]. 3.7 Global Rapeseed Situation - The estimated global rapeseed production in 2025/26 is 95.172 million tons, an increase of 9.174 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending inventory is 12.184 million tons, an increase of 2.384 million tons year - on - year [1]. - The estimated global rapeseed oil production is 35.65 million tons, an increase of 1.482 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending inventory is 3.299 million tons, an increase of 0.09 million tons year - on - year [1]. - The estimated global rapeseed meal production is 50.912 million tons, an increase of 1.846 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending inventory is 1.561 million tons, an increase of 0.125 million tons year - on - year [1]. - Canada's estimated rapeseed export volume in 2025/26 is 7.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.131 million tons year - on - year; the rapeseed oil export volume is 3.375 million tons, an increase of 0.035 million tons year - on - year; the rapeseed meal export volume is 5.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.199 million tons year - on - year [1]. 3.8 Spot Prices - From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu fluctuated [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][9] 2. Core View of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell from a high, while the sugar futures price continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. The pulp futures price weakened. In the cotton market, both global and domestic supply and demand have decreased, and the short - term price is under pressure, but the medium - to - long - term price may fluctuate upward. In the sugar market, the global sugar market is in a state of surplus, and the domestic sugar price is expected to bottom out through fluctuations. In the pulp market, overseas supply is disrupted, and domestic demand may gradually recover, but the rebound height depends on future demand and inventory digestion [1][2][5] 3. Summary of Each Industry Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,740 yuan/ton, a change of - 295 yuan/ton (- 1.96%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,738 yuan/ton, a change of + 164 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,992 yuan/ton, a change of + 208 yuan/ton. In December, Brazil's cotton exports were 452,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.2%, with China as the main destination [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply and demand data in December was small, with both production and demand decreasing in the 25/26 season and a slight increase in ending stocks. The US cotton production continued to increase slightly, and the inventory pressure increased significantly. In the short term, ICE US cotton is expected to be under pressure, but in the medium - to - long - term, the downward space is limited. Domestically, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and the hedging resistance on the futures market decreased as sales accelerated. However, the demand side showed a marginal weakening trend [2] Strategy - A neutral stance is suggested. In the whole year, the domestic cotton supply and demand are expected to be in a relatively balanced state, and there is a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year. The medium - to - long - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate upward, but short - term high - level callback risks need to be警惕 [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5279 yuan/ton, a change of - 2 yuan/ton (- 0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5230 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton. As of January 7, 2026, Thailand's cumulative sugar cane crushing volume decreased by 25.35% year - on - year, and sugar production decreased by 27.03% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in a state of surplus in the 25/26 season. In the short term, the downward space for raw sugar is limited, but the rebound momentum is restricted. In the long term, the sugar price should not be overly pessimistic. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third consecutive year, and the supply is growing seasonally. The import pressure remains, but the import volume of syrup and premixes may decrease in the future [5][6] Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended. The domestic fundamentals still put downward pressure on the price. Although the current valuation is low, the price may bottom out through fluctuations in the short - to - medium - term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5504 yuan/ton, a change of - 92 yuan/ton (- 1.64%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5565 yuan/ton, a change of - 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5140 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price weakened. Overseas, there have been continuous news of pulp mill shutdowns for maintenance. In terms of demand, the European port pulp inventory continued to decline in November, and the demand improved. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the port inventory was still at a high level. However, the port inventory has shown a downward trend recently, and the increasing paper production capacity in the future may support the pulp price [8] Strategy - A neutral stance is advised. Overseas supply disruptions and pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment expectations may lead to a mild recovery in domestic demand, but the rebound height depends on future demand improvement and inventory digestion [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by international trade policies and supply - demand dynamics. The CBOT soybean futures are under pressure, and the domestic soybean and bean -粕 markets are in a state of high inventory and structural shortage expectations. The protein -粕 market will oscillate, with the bean -粕 05 contract ranging from 2700 - 2870 [6]. - The rapeseed -粕 market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market is greatly disturbed by news related to imported rapeseed supply. Rapeseed -粕 mainly follows the protein -粕 market trend, with potential for a stronger performance but also risks of mood reversal. The 05 contract is expected to be in the range of 2300 - 2450 [45]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean and Bean -粕 Market 3.1.1 International Situation - China maintains a 13% import tariff on US soybeans, and commercial purchases are still difficult. The progress of China's soybean purchases from the US is slower than expected, and the optimistic sentiment for exports is cooling. The focus of the January USDA report is whether US soybean exports will be adjusted downward, which could lead to an increase in the stock - to - consumption ratio. The CBOT soybean futures are oscillating downward [6]. - Brazil's soybean planting is nearing completion, and harvesting has begun in some areas. There is no weather premium on the futures, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains [6]. 3.1.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Domestic soybean inventories are at a high level, and the spot supply of bean -粕 from oil mills is still relatively abundant. Downstream feed enterprises have high inventories and limited demand, with average pick - up. Oil mill bean -粕 inventories continue to accumulate and remain at a high level [6]. - In the first quarter, the forward supply gap of imported soybeans in China has been partially repaired, but the soybean purchase plan from the US needs to be observed. The expectation of tightened customs policies for arriving ships has caused temporary supply concerns, but given the high inventories of soybeans and bean -粕, there is a risk of a reversal in market sentiment [6]. 3.1.3 Price and Cost - The USDA's December report predicts that in the 2025/26 season, global soybean production will be 422.54 million tons, a decrease of 5.4 million tons compared to the previous year; the demand for soybean crushing will be 365.24 million tons, an increase of 7.04 million tons; and the export volume will be 187 million tons, an increase of 3.16 million tons. The final inventory will be 121.99 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons. The supply - demand pattern has tightened slightly [8]. - The price of imported soybeans is affected by the futures price, premium, and shipping costs. The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the inverse relationship between the futures price and the premium [17]. 3.1.4 Purchase and Inventory - As of December 30, the purchase progress for the December 2025 shipment was 100%, 99.33% for January 2026, 82.82% for February 2026, and 77.47% for March 2026 [27]. - As of December 26, the oil mill bean -粕 inventory was 116.75 million tons, a 1.35% increase from the previous month and a 47.19% increase compared to the same period last year. The physical inventory of bean -粕 in national feed enterprises was 9.45 days, a 13.54% increase from the end of the previous month and an 11.97% increase compared to the same period last year [34]. 3.1.5 Oil Mill Operations - In December 2025, the national oil mill soybean crushing volume was 9.0675 million tons, a 0.55% increase from the previous month and a 9.20% increase compared to the same period last year. The annual soybean crushing volume in 2025 was 101.728 million tons, a 6.35% increase compared to the previous year [31]. 3.2 Rapeseed -粕 Market 3.2.1 International Situation - Last week, ICE rapeseed futures oscillated at a low level. Trading was light before the New Year's Day holiday. The futures declined slightly due to the pressure of a bumper rapeseed harvest during the week and were supported by the rise in the vegetable oil market on the weekend. The settlement price of the main rapeseed futures contract on the weekend was 603.9 Canadian dollars, a 7.6 - Canadian - dollar decrease from the previous week, a 1.2% decline, and a 20.1 - Canadian - dollar decrease compared to the previous year, a 3.2% decline [45]. 3.2.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Canada's insistence on imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles has led to no new progress in China - Canada economic and trade relations. There are basically no new purchase orders for Canadian rapeseed, and the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed -粕 in oil mills are at a low level. Rapeseed crushing plants are mostly shut down. As the temperature drops, the demand for rapeseed -粕 in feed decreases, and market trading volume is limited, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [45]. - China is actively seeking alternative imports of rapeseed -粕 from multiple sources, and relevant news will have a significant impact on the futures [45]. 3.2.3 Policy Impact - The preliminary ruling of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed maintains a 75.8% deposit for exporters, closing the window for importing Canadian rapeseed. This will significantly increase the cost of importing Canadian rapeseed, reducing import willingness, tightening the domestic rapeseed industry supply chain, and changing the current pattern of weak supply and demand in the rapeseed -粕 market [46]. 3.2.4 Market Conditions - As of the first week, the rapeseed crushing plant operating rate was 0%, and the rapeseed -粕 production was 0 tons. The pick - up volume of rapeseed -粕 in coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and there was no trading in the rapeseed -粕 market [61][64]. - As of the first week, the oil mill rapeseed -粕 inventory was 0 tons, the granular rapeseed -粕 inventory was 16.7 million tons, and the consumption was 0.8 million tons [69]. 3.3 Price Spreads - The bean -粕 05 contract basis was 296 yuan/ton, compared to 311 yuan/ton the previous week. The bean -粕 5 - 9 contract spread was - 101 yuan/ton, compared to - 106 yuan/ton the previous week [39]. - The rapeseed -粕 05 contract basis was 119 yuan/ton, compared to 93 yuan/ton the previous week. The rapeseed -粕 5 - 9 contract spread was - 47 yuan/ton, compared to - 59 yuan/ton the previous week [75]. - The soybean oil - to - bean -粕 ratio was 2.85, compared to 2.82 the previous week. The spread between the main contracts of bean -粕 and rapeseed -粕 was 393 yuan/ton, compared to 399 yuan/ton the previous week [82].

Group 1: Oilseeds and Oils - In December, domestic and international oilseed prices showed weak performance, with oil prices initially declining and then rising, while protein meal prices remained weak and volatile [13][15] - The palm oil market is experiencing a contradiction between fundamental supply and seasonal demand, with slow inventory depletion and limited consumption in major markets like China and India [15] - The first quarter is expected to see increased competition in the oilseed market, with a focus on basis trading strategies [14][15] Group 2: Soybeans - Brazil's Mato Grosso will begin harvesting soybeans in January, leading to pressure on soybean prices due to high sales volume and reduced demand from China [14] - Brazilian soybean prices may drop below $400/ton, impacting global soybean prices, while U.S. soybean purchases by China are expected to continue but at a slower pace [14] - The market is awaiting the January supply and demand report to assess the final production and inventory figures for U.S. soybeans [14] Group 3: Eggs - In December, egg futures prices experienced a high-level correction followed by a slight rebound, but the supply remains ample, leading to a weak price trend [16][17] - The average price of brown eggs in China was stable at 3.01 yuan/kg as of December 31, with cautious purchasing behavior from traders ahead of the New Year [16][17] - The number of egg-laying hens continues to decline, but overall supply remains sufficient, leading to a recommendation for cautious observation in the market [17] Group 4: Corn - In December, U.S. corn prices showed resilience, with strong export sales supporting the market despite geopolitical tensions affecting wheat prices [19] - Domestic corn prices remained strong, with an average price of 2313 yuan/ton as of December 31, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [19] - The market is balancing supply and demand, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach due to weak terminal demand [19] Group 5: Pork - In December, the price of live pigs increased due to seasonal demand, with the national average price reaching 12.48 yuan/kg, up 1.36 yuan from the previous month [20] - The number of breeding sows decreased slightly, but the demand for heavier pigs has increased, supporting prices [20] - The market is expected to continue its upward trend in January, driven by strong supply and demand dynamics [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: South American soybean growth is good with a high probability of a bumper harvest, and US soybean exports are slow, leading to weak CBOT soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, concerns about soybean customs clearance have supported domestic bean prices, but overall soybean and soybean oil supplies are sufficient, suppressing price increases. With ample supply and limited short - term bullish drivers, it is advisable to hold short positions lightly. The support level for the main 05 contract is 7600 - 7650 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 7900 - 7950 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated on Monday. The current inventory is in a destocking state. With Australian rapeseed not yet in the crushing stage, the market's bullish sentiment has increased. The near - month contract prices have risen rapidly, but the upside of the 05 contract is limited due to expected supply increases. In the short - term, it is expected to remain volatile. In the long - term, supply increases and a global bumper harvest will put pressure on prices, while anti - dumping duties and high import costs provide some support. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side operations and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil fluctuated weakly on Monday. The fundamentals of the main producing areas have improved slightly, but the market still expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to continue to accumulate in December, limiting price rebounds. With long - term deep import profit inversion and stagnant ship purchases in the past two weeks, there is some bottom support. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side operations and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [2]. - **Other Products**: For other products such as soybeans, corn, and their derivatives, as well as livestock and poultry products like pigs and eggs, the report provides detailed market analyses, support and resistance levels, and corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand relationships, inventory situations, and market sentiment [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: The 05 contract of soybeans (domestic) is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to hold short - term long positions; the 05 contract of soybeans (imported) is expected to rise first and then fall, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [9]. - **Oils**: The 05 contract of soybean oil is expected to be oscillating bearishly, and it is recommended to sell on rallies; the 05 contract of rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see; the 05 contract of palm oil is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to turn to a wait - and - see stance [9]. - **Proteins**: The 05 contract of soybean meal is expected to rise first and then fall, and it is recommended to sell on rallies; the 05 contract of rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Energy and By - products**: The 03 contract of corn is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to take a short - term long - position approach; the 03 contract of corn starch is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to take a short - term long - position approach [9]. - **Livestock Farming**: The 03 contract of pigs is expected to find a bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position; the 05 contract of eggs is expected to find a bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to buy at low prices [9]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Arbitrage**: For different products, the report provides current values, previous values, price changes, and corresponding arbitrage strategies, including waiting and seeing, positive spreads (buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts), and negative spreads (selling near - term contracts and buying far - term contracts) [10][11]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For different product combinations, the report provides current values, previous values, price changes, and corresponding arbitrage strategies, such as waiting and seeing, bearish operations [11]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock farming products [12]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Tables 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, such as CNF prices, import duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybean (port) inventory, soybean meal (oil mill) inventory, and soybean oil (port) inventory [16][17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of corn from different countries and months [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes indicators such as the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises, corn inventory, starch enterprise operating rate, and starch enterprise inventory [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Daily Data**: It includes daily data of pigs and eggs, such as spot prices, price changes, and basis changes [19][20]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes weekly key data of pigs and eggs, such as spot prices, breeding costs, profits, and inventory data [22][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Pigs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of pigs and eggs, spot prices, and related price indicators [24][25][26]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes charts related to palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, such as production, exports, inventory, and basis [33][40][48]. - **Feed**: It includes charts related to corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal, such as closing prices, spot prices, basis, and inventory [51][58][63][70]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various products, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts [86][88]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of warehouse receipt quantities of various products, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [94][96][97][100][102].

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 【粕类日报】供应压力仍存 盘面阶段性反弹 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | 2025/12/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 0 1 豆粕 | 3047 | - 5 | 天津 | 340 | 340 | 0 1 0 | | 0 5 | 2745 | 4 | 东莞 | 290 | 280 | | | 0 9 | 2863 | 6 | 张家港 | 290 | 280 | 1 0 | | | | | 日照 | 300 | 280 | 2 0 | | 0 1 | 2417 | 5 | 南通 | 3 | 8 | - 5 | | 菜粕 0 5 | 2349 | 1 2 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The three major oils rebounded from their lows, with palm oil leading the way. Cotton continued to rise, while eggs showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soybean meal rebounded from its low but the downward trend remained unchanged. Live pigs fluctuated narrowly at a low level, and sugar rebounded from its low but the decline was not reversed [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - The three major oils rebounded from their lows, with palm oil leading. High - frequency data showed that from December 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil exports increased month - on - month and production decreased, boosting the palm oil rebound, but the rebound space may be limited. Cotton continued to rise due to strong downstream demand, a decline in cumulative imported cotton this year, and improved textile export expectations due to better China - US economic and trade relations [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - Palm oil rebounded from its low, with a significant increase in Malaysian palm oil exports (up 43.6% month - on - month from December 1 - 20, 2025 according to SGS) and a decline in production (down 7.15% month - on - month from December 1 - 20 according to SPPOMA). India's cancellation of some Argentine soybean oil imports was potentially positive, and Indonesia's B50 policy provided long - term support. The palm oil futures price rebounded from its low, but the price was still in a downward trend, and the resistance level of 8466 on the 10 - day moving average needed attention [2] 3.2.2 Cotton - Cotton continued to rise. Xinjiang's new cotton was on the market, commercial inventories increased seasonally, but cotton sales rates were higher than last year, indicating strong downstream consumption. Cotton imports decreased (890,000 tons from January - November this year, a 64% year - on - year decrease). Xinjiang textile mills' product sales were smooth, with high - and medium - count yarns selling well, and the startup rate was over 90%. The improvement in China - US economic and trade relations improved cotton textile export expectations. The cotton futures price continued to rise, reaching a new four - month high. The strategy was to look for support levels to go long [3] 3.2.3 Eggs - Eggs showed near - term weakness and long - term strength. The egg - laying hen inventory was high, and overall demand was weak. The old - hen slaughter volume decreased slightly, and capacity reduction was slow. The near - month contract was under pressure from sufficient supply. The main 2602 contract fluctuated narrowly and was technically weak, and the strategy was to hold short positions [5] 3.2.4 Soybean Meal - Soybean meal rebounded from its low but the decline remained. Domestic soybeans were sufficient, with 1 - month shipping contracts mostly purchased. Cofco's continuous soybean auctions had decreasing transaction rates and prices. High soybean imports led to high - pressure oil extraction, and soybean meal inventories remained above one million tons. The main 2605 contract rebounded slightly but was still in a downward trend, and the strategy was to look for resistance levels to go short lightly [7] 3.2.5 Live Pigs - Live pigs fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The domestic pig inventory was high, and farmers were more willing to sell. There was a risk of concentrated supply due to the end - of - year sales plan of large pig farms and the concentrated出栏 of second - fattened and back - pressured pigs. The demand side was not strongly supported, with mild weather and late Chinese New Year affecting pickled meat demand and substitutes diverting some pork consumption. The main 2603 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the strategy was short - term trading until a breakthrough [9] 3.2.6 Sugar - Sugar rebounded from its low but the decline was not reversed. Global sugar production in major producing countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand was expected to increase (Brazil up 2.3% to 44.7 million tons, India up 25% to 35.25 million tons, Thailand up 2% to 10.25 million tons in the 2025/26 season). In China, southern sugarcane crushing continued, and the supply pressure increased seasonally. The main 2605 contract rebounded, with some short - covering, but the downward trend remained, and the strategy was to hold short positions [11]