【国富期货早间看点】MPOA马棕11月产量环比减4.38% 分析师预 估25/26年美豆期末库存为3.02亿蒲 20251208 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月8日 07:21 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4152.00 | 1.12 | | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 63. 86 | 0. 77 | 0. 39 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 60. 14 | 0.74 | 0.23 | | 美豆01 (CBOT) | 1105. 25 | -1.29 | -1. 21 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 307. 40 | -1.22 | -0.93 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 51. 70 | -0. 29 | -1.15 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98.97 | -0. 08 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 0749 | 0 ...

【国富期货早间看点】市场预计马棕11月库存为266万吨 阿根廷 25/26年度大豆产量预计为4690万吨 20251204 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月4日 07:57 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4130.00 | -0. 02 | -0. 63 | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 62. 75 | 0.58 | -0. 35 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 59.11 | 0. 89 | -0. 15 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1116. 25 | -0. 69 | -0. 53 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 311.20 | -0. 13 | -0.26 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 51. 71 | -1. 65 | -1. 11 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 90 | -0. 44 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7 ...

研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/04 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | 淀粉 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/27 | 2070 | 2240 | 2210 | 2440 | -3 | 50 | 260 | 2700 | 2850 | 133 | -9 | | 2025/11/28 | 2090 | 2240 | 2210 | 2440 | -4 | 45 | - | 2700 | 2850 | 139 | -29 | | 2025/12/01 | 2120 | 2240 | 2210 | 2440 | 4 | 45 | - | 2700 | 2850 | 163 | -47 | | 2025/12/02 | 2120 | 2240 | 2210 | 2430 | -3 | 35 | - | 2700 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 农产品类 蛋白粕： 周三，CBOT大豆收跌，因等待新一轮大豆销售的消息。美国农业部周四将发布截至10月30日的出口销 售报告。市场有消息称，最后期限是2月份，这引发了市场担忧。加拿大统计局将于周四发布作物报 告，预计加菜籽产量将上调至2125万吨，高于9月预估的2003万吨。国内方面，蛋白粕延续窄幅震荡走 势，菜粕弱于豆粕。市场关注下周将于发布的供需报告，预计单产和出口可能会进行调整。豆粕现货价 格偏强震荡，基差报价小幅走高，因油厂挺价意愿增加。策略上，蛋白粕震荡思路，单边区间思路，做 空波动率，月间反套。 油脂： 周三，BMD棕榈油小幅下跌，跟随周边市场弱势。周三的一项调查显示，由于出口下滑，当月产量创 纪录，马来西亚11月棕榈油库存或攀升至266万吨，六年半高位。此前，印度表示11月棕榈油进口量上 升，12月可能继续增加。现货市场上，马棕油价格持平至上涨，印尼棕榈油现货报价下跌，印尼和马来 的棕榈油价差缩小。产区降水减少，关注产区高频数据。国内方面，油脂价格分化运行，棕榈油冲高回 落，豆油延续震荡走势。现货市场成交清淡，油脂震荡偏强思路。策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural commodity market, including the overnight and spot market conditions of various agricultural products, important fundamental information such as weather in major production areas, supply - demand dynamics at home and abroad, macro - economic news, and details on capital flows and arbitrage tracking. This provides a basis for understanding the current state and potential trends of the agricultural commodity market [1][2][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices, previous - day and overnight percentage changes of various futures are given. For example, the closing price of BMD's February Malaysian palm oil futures was 4170.00, with a previous - day increase of 1.56% and an overnight increase of 0.31%. There are also details on the latest prices, percentage changes, and ten - day percentage changes of currency indices [1] Spot Market Conditions - For futures such as DCE's palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in 2026, the spot prices, basis, and basis changes in different regions are provided. Additionally, CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In Brazil, the soil moisture in the southern part is suitable, but the decreasing rainfall frequency is causing a slow drying process. In Argentina, the soybean - growing conditions are uneven due to intermittent heavy rainfall and drought. Malaysia's flood risk is expected to subside, which is beneficial for palm oil production [5][6] International Trade and Supply - Demand - Malaysia's November palm oil exports decreased by 39.21% compared to the previous month. FGV and Felda may face production decline due to an order to evacuate plantations. Indonesia's palm oil exports from January to October 2025 increased by 7.83% compared to the same period in 2024. India's November palm oil imports increased by 4.6% to 630,000 tons, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports decreased [7][8] Domestic Supply - Demand - On December 2, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 45% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate decreased by 2.90%. The national soybean oil port inventory increased by 1.2 million tons [14] Macro - Economic News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89.2%. The OECD predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates twice by the end of 2026. There are also data on API crude oil inventory in the US, CPI and unemployment rate in the Eurozone [16][17] Domestic News - On December 2, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0794, with the yuan depreciating. The central bank conducted 156.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan. In November, the central bank's net investment in public treasury bond trading was 50 billion yuan [19] Capital Flows - On December 2, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 8.115 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 257 million yuan, while stock index futures had a net outflow of 7.923 billion yuan and treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 86 million yuan [22] Arbitrage Tracking - No relevant information provided

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [3][5]. - The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the market performance, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The inventory situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [8]. - The new sugar - making season in major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase production, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell short at high prices and close positions when the price drops [11]. - The demand for cotton after the peak season is not too bad, and the short - term capital push may not lead to a unilateral trend due to the hedging pressure [15]. - The sentiment of culling laying hens is strong, and the far - month egg futures are strong. In the short term, the futures are strong, but in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, with a short - term long and medium - term short strategy [17]. - The theoretical pig slaughter volume is still large, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short the near - month futures or conduct reverse spreads [20]. By Relevant Catalogs Protein Meal - **行情资讯** - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose, the Brazilian soybean premium increased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans rose. Over the weekend, the domestic soybean meal spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton, with the price in East China at 3020 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal transactions declined significantly, and the delivery was good. MYSTEEL expects the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills to be 2.1353 million tons this week, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days [2]. - The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from simultaneous growth in supply and demand to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand. The predicted annual inventory - to - use ratio of global soybeans has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to the current 28.94%, providing bottom support [3]. - The new global soybean production has been continuously revised downwards, and the total production is now equal to the total demand, indicating a decrease in global soybean supply compared to the 24/25 season [5]. - **策略观点** - The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and the crushing margin is under pressure. As it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5]. Fats and Oils - **行情资讯** - ITS and AMSPEC data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports in November decreased compared with the previous month. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in November first increased and then decreased compared with the previous month. On November 28, floods and landslides in Indonesia's Sumatra Island caused at least 106 deaths. Last Friday, domestic fats and oils continued to rebound, and foreign investors continued to reduce their short positions in palm oil. The domestic spot basis was stable [6]. - **策略观点** - The over - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market performance, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The inventory situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production cannot be sustained, the destocking time may come earlier. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [8]. Sugar - **行情资讯** - On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 5400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of new sugar from major domestic sugar - making groups were stable. As of November 27, 21 sugar - mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, 36 less than the same period last year. The daily sugar - cane crushing capacity was 150,000 tons, a decrease of 316,000 tons compared with the same period last year. StoneX predicts that the global sugar supply will have a surplus of 3.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season, the largest since the 2017/18 season. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November 2025 is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year to 1.08 million tons [10]. - **策略观点** - The new sugar - making season in major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase production, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not improve significantly. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, it is recommended to sell short at high prices and close positions when the price drops [11]. Cotton - **行情资讯** - On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose. The closing price of the January contract was 13,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton or 0.62% from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton also increased slightly. As of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, flat compared with the previous week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons compared with the same period last year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% compared with the same period last year. The USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report predicts that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast [13][14]. - **策略观点** - The demand for cotton after the peak season is not too bad, and the short - term capital push may not lead to a unilateral trend due to the hedging pressure [15]. Eggs - **行情资讯** - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mostly stable or slightly increased. The laying hen inventory remained high, the proportion of small eggs gradually decreased, and the inventory pressure was not large under the rotation method. The demand support was limited, but the short - term replenishment at the low price stage may support a slight increase in egg prices [16]. - **策略观点** - The sentiment of culling laying hens is strong, and the far - month egg futures are strong. In the short term, the futures are strong, but in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, with a short - term long and medium - term short strategy [17]. Pigs - **行情资讯** - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices generally rose. The demand did not increase significantly, but the slaughter volume at the end of the month decreased, and farmers were reluctant to sell, supporting the price increase. It is expected that pig prices will continue to be strong today [19]. - **策略观点** - The theoretical pig slaughter volume is still large, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short the near - month futures or conduct reverse spreads [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The bottom of import cost may have emerged, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. There may be a reversal in the inventory situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a callback - buying strategy [6][9]. - **Sugar**: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major producing countries, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell high and close positions when prices fall [11][12]. - **Cotton**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14][15]. - **Eggs**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the market is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upside pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [16][17]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or do reverse spreads [19][20]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans were closed for a holiday. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable, and the cost of imported soybeans remained unchanged. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were mostly flat, with good trading and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, and last week's was 2.3344 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days decreased by 0.25 days to 7.98 days. Port soybean inventories decreased last week but were still high year - on - year. Soybean meal inventories rose above 1 million tons [2]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of import cost may have emerged, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [4]. Palm Oil - **Market Information**: From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased compared with the previous month, while production increased. In September, Indonesia exported 2.2 million tons of palm oil, lower than the same period last year and August this year. On Thursday, domestic oils continued to rebound, and foreign capital reduced short positions in palm oil [6]. - **Strategy**: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. There may be a reversal in the inventory situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a callback - buying strategy [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,403 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton or 0.45%. Spot prices were stable. The new sugar - making season is expected to see a global supply surplus of 3.7 million tons, and Brazil's sugar production in the first half of November is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year [11]. - **Strategy**: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major producing countries, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell high and close positions when prices fall [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of the January contract was 13,640 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11%. The spot price index rose. Spinning mill operating rates decreased slightly, and commercial cotton inventories increased year - on - year. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to increase by 520,000 tons [14]. - **Strategy**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.03 yuan to 2.96 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and downstream digestion was average, with some improvement in local areas [16]. - **Strategy**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the market is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upside pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [17]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices mostly fell, with slight increases in some areas. Market demand increased slowly, and supply was abundant. Slaughter enterprises still had the intention to suppress prices [19]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or do reverse spreads [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market is generally strong, with prices fluctuating. The domestic soybean meal shows a rising trend, while rapeseed meal continues to rebound. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly expands, and the monthly spreads of both contracts decline [3]. - The current international soybean market supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The US market is relatively strong due to increased exports, but the Brazilian new - crop soybean may face price pressure in the medium term [4]. - The domestic spot market is in a state of loose supply - demand. The oil mill's开机率 increases, the market supply is sufficient, and the inventory remains high. The market demand is increasing, but there is still a potential shortage in the long - term supply [5]. - The impact of macro factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes [6]. - In the short term, the US soybean futures may fluctuate at a high level. The South American market has price support, and the international soybean market supply - demand is relatively stable. The domestic soybean meal may face price pressure in the medium - long term, and the rapeseed meal supply may still face pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Basis**: For soybean meal, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 3015, 2826, and 2938 respectively, with price increases of 2, 6, and 7. The spot basis in various regions shows a downward trend. For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 2439, 2387, and 2451 respectively, with price increases of 8, 2, and 1. The spot basis in some regions also decreases [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For soybean meal, the 15 - spread is 189 (down 4 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is - 112 (down 1), and the 91 - spread is - 77 (up 5). For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread is 52 (up 6), the 59 - spread is - 64 (up 1), and the 91 - spread is 12 (down 7) [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 576 (down from yesterday), and the 09 - spread is 487 (up from yesterday). The spot difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 468 (down 13), between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 370 (down 20), and between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 718 (down 3) [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **International Market**: The US soybean balance sheet can support the price, but the upside is limited. South American supply - side influence increases. Brazil's new - crop sowing progresses fast, with a generally positive supply outlook. Argentina's old - crop soybean has increased processing and exports [4]. - **Domestic Market**: As of November 21, the actual soybean processing volume of oil mills is 2.3344 million tons, the开机率 is 64.22%, the soybean inventory is 7.1499 million tons (down 4.38% from last week, up 39.91% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory is 1.1515 million tons (up 15.97% from last week, up 49.47% year - on - year). The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the supply pressure persists [5]. 3.3 Macro Factors - The US government ends the shutdown, and Sino - US negotiations release positive signals, which boost the US soybean futures. The resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China improves the export prospects. However, the impact of macro factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future [6]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean futures may fluctuate at a high level without significant improvement in exports. The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the price. The international soybean market supply - demand is relatively stable, and price changes are expected to be limited. The domestic soybean meal market has supply - side pressure, and the rapeseed meal supply may face challenges [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side**: Place a small number of long positions [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8]. 3.6 Soybean Processing Profits - The processing profits of Brazilian soybeans vary by shipping date. For example, the February shipment has a spot processing profit of 52.57 and a change of - 2.52 compared to yesterday [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and their related products. It also analyzes important fundamental information such as产区天气, international and domestic supply - demand, and macro - economic news, along with details on fund flows and arbitrage tracking. Summary by Directory Overnight Market Conditions - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures contract 02 was 3985.00, with a previous day's decline of 1.60% and an overnight decline of 0.13% [1]. - Brent crude oil futures contract 02 on ICE closed at 61.90, with a previous day's decline of 1.32% and an overnight increase of 1.13% [1]. - NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract 01 closed at 58.11, with a previous day's decline of 1.32% and an overnight increase of 1.36% [1]. - CBOT soybean futures contract 01 closed at 1124.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.25% and an overnight increase of 0.02% [1]. - CBOT soybean meal futures contract 01 closed at 320.50, with a previous day's increase of 0.82% and an overnight decline of 0.40% [1]. - CBOT soybean oil futures contract 01 closed at 50.63, with a previous day's increase of 0.30% and an overnight increase of 1.61% [1]. - The latest value of the US dollar index was 99.83, with a decline of 0.34% [1]. Spot Market Conditions - For DCE palm oil 2601, the spot price in North China was 8540, with a basis of 110 and no change from the previous day; in East China, it was 8430, with a basis of 0 and no change; in South China, it was 8380, with a basis of - 50 and no change [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 8370, with a basis of 192 and a decrease of 6 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 8450, with a basis of 272 and a decrease of 6; in Guangdong, it was 8480, with a basis of 302 and a decrease of 6; in Tianjin, it was 8310, with a basis of 132 and a decrease of 26 [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 2990, with a basis of - 28 and a decrease of 2 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2980, with a basis of - 38 and a decrease of 2; in Guangdong, it was 2970, with a basis of - 48 and a decrease of 2; in Tianjin, it was 3050, with a basis of 32 and a decrease of 2 [2]. Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In southern Brazil, soil moisture will slowly decline. In the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, it will be generally dry from Tuesday to Friday. Temperatures will be near to below normal on Tuesday, near to above normal from Wednesday to Thursday, and above normal on Friday. In the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and southern Goiás, there will be scattered showers before Friday, and temperatures will be near normal. Overall, December rainfall is predicted to be below normal, but the situation may improve as local crops enter the growing season [4]. - In Argentina's main soybean - producing areas, an overall dry pattern has emerged. Although soil moisture is still high in the early growing season, a dry pattern has set in. A front will bring scattered showers on Friday and Saturday, followed by dry conditions until December. Due to the lack of high - temperature weather, the decline in soil moisture will slow down [4]. International Supply and Demand - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 were 1,041,935 tons, a 18.8% decrease from the same period last month [6]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 were 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease from the same period last month [6]. - As of the week ending October 9, US soybean export sales increased by a net of 78.64 million tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year export sales increased by a net of 78.50 million tons, a 15% decrease from the previous week and a 9% decrease from the four - week average. Next - market - year export sales increased by a net of 0.14 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending October 9, US soybean oil export sales increased by a net of 0.19 million tons, below expectations. Current - market - year export sales increased by a net of 0.19 million tons, and next - market - year export sales increased by a net of 0 tons [7]. - As of the week ending October 9, US soybean meal export sales increased by a net of 35.55 million tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year export sales increased by a net of 35.84 million tons, a 6% increase from the previous week and a 517% increase from the four - week average. Next - market - year export sales decreased by a net of 0.29 million tons [8]. - As of the week ending November 21, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.73 per bushel, a 12.2% decrease from the previous week [8]. - The US Agriculture Secretary indicated that the Trump administration is expected to announce a package of aid for US farmers within two weeks [9]. - Anec estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in November would reach 4.4 million tons (down from the previous forecast of 4.71 million tons), and soybean meal exports would be 2.5 million tons (down from the previous forecast of 2.68 million tons) [9]. - Argentina's soybean crushing volume in October was 4,036,171 tons, with a soybean oil output of 794,211 tons and a soybean meal output of 2,976,944 tons. As of November 1, 2025, the factory's soybean inventory was 2,798,823 tons, soybean oil inventory was 296,624 tons, and soybean meal inventory was 1,050,328 tons [9]. - As of November 21, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 1.12 million tons (compared to 1.36 million tons in the same period last year), soybean imports were 4.66 million tons (compared to 5.41 million tons last year), soybean meal imports were 7.02 million tons (compared to 7.83 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 1.51 million tons (compared to 2.53 million tons last year) [10]. - Canada's AAFC maintained its forecast for the 2025/26 rapeseed production at 20.028 million tons, exports at 7 million tons, domestic use at 12.226 million tons, and ending inventory at 2.5 million tons [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose for the ninth consecutive trading day on Tuesday, reaching its highest level in nearly two years, driven by stronger freight rates for Capesize and Panamax vessels [11]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On November 25, the trading volume of soybean oil was 2000 tons, and palm oil was 1600 tons, with a total trading volume of 3600 tons, a decrease of 2800 tons (44%) from the previous trading day [12]. - On November 25, the trading volume of soybean meal at major domestic oil mills was 14.26 million tons, an increase of 4.72 million tons from the previous trading day. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate was 60.27%, a decrease of 1.24% from the previous day [12]. - As of November 19, the national average hog price was 12.24 yuan/kg, a 1.61% decrease from November 12; the average corn price in major wholesale markets was 2.28 yuan/kg, a 0.88% increase from November 12; the hog - to - corn ratio was 5.37, a 2.36% decrease from November 12 [12]. - On November 25, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.94, up 0.24 points from the previous day; the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" was 128.13, up 0.28 points from the previous day [13]. Macro - economic News International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 84.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 15.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 66.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 11.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.6% [15]. - The US September PPI annual rate was 2.7% (in line with expectations, up from 2.6% previously), the monthly rate was 0.3% (in line with expectations, up from - 0.1% previously), the September retail sales monthly rate was 0.2% (lower than the expected 0.4%, down from 0.6% previously) [15]. - The US November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was 88.7 (lower than the expected 93.4, down from 94.6 previously) [15]. - The US November Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was - 15 (lower than the expected - 5, down from - 4 previously) [15]. - The US October Pending Home Sales Index monthly rate was 1.9% (higher than the expected 0.5%, up from a revised 0.1% previously) [15]. - The US September S&P/CS 20 - City Unadjusted House Price Index annual rate was 1.4% (in line with expectations, down from 1.58% previously), and the FHFA House Price Index monthly rate was 0% (lower than the expected 0.2%, down from 0.40% previously) [15]. - The US August Business Inventory monthly rate was 0% (lower than the expected 0.1%, down from a revised 0.1% previously) [16]. - The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending November 21 was - 1.859 million barrels (compared to 4.448 million barrels previously) [16]. Domestic News - On November 25, the USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.0826, down 21 points (indicating RMB appreciation) [18]. - On November 25, the People's Bank of China conducted 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 900 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF and 407.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 1005.4 billion yuan [18]. Fund Flows - On November 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 7.469 billion yuan, including a net inflow of 7.242 billion yuan in commodity futures (451 million yuan in agricultural product futures, a net outflow of 269 million yuan in chemical futures, 269 million yuan in black - series futures, and 6.79 billion yuan in metal futures), a net inflow of 21 million yuan in stock index futures, and a net inflow of 178 million yuan in treasury bond futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents comprehensive information on the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental factors, macro - news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It also details the supply - demand situation of various agricultural products and the latest economic data at home and abroad, which can help investors understand the market trends and make investment decisions [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market - Overnight price and percentage change data are provided for multiple futures products, including BMD's February palm oil, ICE's January Brent crude, NYMEX's January WTI crude, CBOT's January soybeans, etc. Price and percentage change data are also given for multiple currency pairs, such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. [1] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes are presented for DCE's January 2026 palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions. CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes are also provided for imported soybeans from different origins [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - In Brazil, the soybean - producing areas in the south may face deteriorating conditions as the key growth season for corn and soybeans approaches in December. In Argentina, a drier weather pattern is forming, and soil moisture may gradually decline in the coming weeks [3]. 3.3.2 International Supply and Demand - Malaysia's 2025 crude palm oil production is expected to exceed 19.5 million tons, higher than 19.3 million tons in 2024. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 20, 2025, decreased by 40.6% compared to the same period last month. CFTC's position report shows changes in long and short positions for multiple agricultural products. USDA's monthly crushing report provides data on US soybean and corn processing. Information on soybean planting progress in Brazil and Argentina, oilseed processing in the EU, and soybean planting and export in Ukraine is also included. Additionally, data on Canadian rapeseed exports and inventory, and the Baltic Dry Index are presented [5][6][7]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On November 21, 2025, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal also decreased, and the opening rate of oil mills declined. The expected soybean crushing volume in the 48th week is slightly lower than that in the 47th week. Data on pig - raising profits, agricultural product wholesale price indices, and livestock and poultry product prices are also provided [10][11]. 3.4 Macro - news 3.4.1 International News - The preliminary values of the US November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, and Composite PMI are released, along with the final value of the one - year inflation rate expectation, the final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, and the monthly rate of wholesale sales. The preliminary value of the Eurozone November Manufacturing PMI is also provided [14]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On November 21, 2025, the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased, and the central bank carried out 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment [16]. 3.5 Fund Flows - On November 21, 2025, the futures market had a net fund outflow of 9.73 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 13.39 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net inflow of 4.4 billion yuan, and bond futures had a net outflow of 0.694 billion yuan [20]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.