Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][6][9] Core Views - **Cotton**: Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2] - **Sugar**: In the short - term, the decline of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar prices is limited. In the long - term, raw sugar may remain in a low - level shock, and Zhengzhou sugar may have a pessimistic outlook next year [4][6] - **Pulp**: The fundamental improvement of pulp is insufficient, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,485 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.67%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,557 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,779 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Pakistan: As of November 15, 2025/26, the cumulative listing of new - season seed cotton in terms of lint was about 753,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA's November report increased US cotton production, and global cotton supply and demand data were adjusted negatively. The short - term external market is under pressure [1] - Domestic: After the National Day holiday, the expected decline in new cotton production and the stable increase in seed cotton purchase prices supported the previous rebound. However, new cotton is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weak [1] Strategy - Short - term: Cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调. Long - term: Cotton prices are expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,381 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - India: The central government approved the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season and will consider raising the minimum selling price [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Global sugar production is expected to increase, suppressing the market. In the short - term, the decline space is limited; in the long - term, the rebound is restricted [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: New - season domestic sugar production is expected to increase, but the price is near the cost line, and the decline space is limited [4] Strategy - Short - term: Focus on the support around 5,400 yuan/ton, and treat Zhengzhou sugar with a shock mentality before the Spring Festival. Long - term: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price may reach a new low next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,396 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous day [7] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] - Market: The import pulp spot market price was basically stable, and the trading volume was limited [7] Market Analysis - Supply: European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained high. Domestic port inventory decline was slower than expected [8] - Demand: Global pulp mill inventory pressure is increasing, and domestic demand is weak, which suppresses pulp prices [8] Strategy - The continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][8][10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cotton market lacks obvious upward drivers, with international and domestic markets facing supply - demand imbalances. In the short - term, cotton prices are under pressure, while in the long - term, they are expected to be more optimistic. The sugar market is in a globally over - supplied situation, but short - term price declines are limited, and long - term trends are not optimistic. The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance, with supply remaining loose and demand weak, limiting the rebound of pulp prices [2][7][9] Group 3: Summary by Different Commodities Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.04%. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,579 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 14,801 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. According to the USDA's November report, the 2025/26 US cotton planting area is 56.427 million mu, the harvest area is 44.729 million mu, with a constant abandonment rate of 20.7%. The expected yield per mu is 68.7 kg, up 6.7% from September, and the expected output is 3.073 million tons, an increase of 194,000 tons from September. The expected consumption is 370,000 tons, and the expected export volume is 2.654 million tons, an increase of 44,000 tons from September. The ending inventory increases by 152,000 tons to 936,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's November report significantly increased the US cotton output, and the global cotton output, consumption, and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season all increased compared to September, with a bearish adjustment direction. The northern hemisphere's new cotton is concentrated on the market, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak. Domestically, the expected new cotton output has declined, and the seed cotton purchase price has stabilized and rebounded. However, new cotton is still expected to increase in production, the downstream "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is not prosperous, and it is currently the off - season for the textile industry, with insufficient demand [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may decline after cost solidification. In the long - term, the beginning inventory of the new year is low, consumption is resilient, and the supply - demand is not too loose. After the seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,458 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.22%. Spot: The sugar spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the second half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 31.108 million tons, an increase of 3.902 million tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 14.34%. The sugar production was 2.068 million tons, an increase of 292,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 16.40%. From the beginning of the 2025/26 crushing season to the second half of October, the cumulative sugar production was 38.085 million tons, an increase of 611,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.63% [4][5] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in a pattern of over - supply, with Brazil's supply remaining strong, India's sugar production expected to rebound significantly, and Thailand's sugar production also expected to increase. However, in the short - term, India's exports are difficult to increase, and Brazil's supply pressure is gradually weakening. The domestic new crushing season has a strong expectation of increased sugar production, but the current price is close to the cost line, and the sugar mills have the intention to support the price, and the syrup control policy is tightened, so the decline space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [6][7] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, the support around 5,400 is strong, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price may not be optimistic next year, with the possibility of new lows [8] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5,474 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.11%. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Baikal) was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market fluctuated slightly, with only a few pulp types showing a strengthening trend [9] Market Analysis - Supply: The European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port inventory removal was slower than expected, and the supply remained loose. Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. Domestic demand was weak, and although there was a large amount of finished paper production capacity put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mills' operating rate declined [9] Strategy - Neutral. The fundamental improvement of the pulp market is insufficient, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil production may pressure prices, but the Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy provides support. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise, but there is a risk of resistance below 9000 yuan. For soybeans, the USDA report led to a decline in CBOT soybeans, and domestic soybean oil inventories are high with weak demand. Dalian soybean oil may correct in the short term [1]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance, leading to a rebound in the futures market, but the supply pressure limits the upside. Attention should be paid to the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. - **Sugar**: The Indian sugar export policy and the end of the Brazilian harvest result in a relatively calm fundamental situation. The raw sugar price is expected to consolidate around 14 cents/pound. The domestic sugar market is expected to remain volatile next week [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet is bearish for cotton prices. Domestically, new cotton supply is short - term concentrated, and downstream demand is weak, but local product demand provides some support. Cotton prices may be under pressure in the short term [9]. - **Meal**: The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet lacks significant information. There is no substantial bullish factor for US soybeans, and domestic soybean inventories are high. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is abundant, and demand is weak. Although the decline in egg prices has not widened, there is insufficient positive support. The market is expected to be weak and volatile this week [15]. - **Pigs**: The spot pig price is weak, but there is support at low levels. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan/ton (+0.35%), the futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan/ton (-0.72%), and the basis was 334 yuan/ton (+36.89%) [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8590 yuan/ton (+0.23%), the futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan/ton (-1.23%), and the basis was - 54 yuan/ton (+70.33%). The import cost was 9112.8 yuan/ton (-0.76%), and the import profit was - 469 yuan/ton (-8.89%) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan/ton (+0.29%), the futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan/ton (-0.52%), and the basis was 367 yuan/ton (+28.77%) [1]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The 2601 contract price at Jinzhou Port was 2185 - 2210 yuan/ton, the basis was 25 yuan/ton (+78.57%), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 67 yuan/ton (+5.63%). The import profit was 301 yuan/ton (+5.00%) [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The 2601 contract price was 2505 yuan/ton (-0.08%), the basis was 5 yuan/ton (+66.67%), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 76 yuan/ton (0.00%) [3]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5470 yuan/ton (-0.76%), and the 1 - 5 spread was 66 yuan/ton (-16.46%). The ICE raw sugar主力 was 14.85 cents/pound (+2.91%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5660 yuan/ton (0.00%), and the Nanning basis was 256 yuan/ton (+12.78%) [7]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and sales increased by 9.17% year - on - year [7]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13470 yuan/ton (-0.19%), and the 5 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton (+300.00%). The ICE US cotton主力 was 64.14 cents/pound (-0.68%) [9]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14594 yuan/ton (-0.14%), and the 3128B - 01 contract basis was 1124 yuan/ton (+0.45%) [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory increased by 70.4% month - on - month, and the textile and clothing retail sales increased by 19.5% month - on - month [9]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan/ton (+0.33%), the futures price of M2601 was 3092 yuan/ton (+0.68%), and the basis was - 32 yuan/ton (-52.38%). The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule import profit was - 7 yuan/ton (-800.0%) [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2500 yuan/ton (0.00%), the futures price of RM2601 was 2490 yuan/ton (-0.08%), and the basis was 10 yuan/ton (+25.00%) [11]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the 12 - contract was 3033 yuan/500KG (-0.23%), and the 12 - 01 spread was - 202 yuan/500KG (+10.22%) [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the production area was 2.98 yuan/jin (-0.34%), and the basis was - 51 yuan/500KG (-6.54%) [15]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract was 11775 yuan/ton (-0.72%), and the main contract basis was 582 yuan/ton (+103.57%) [17]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 12060 yuan/ton (+0.50%), and the sample point daily slaughter volume was 162927 (-0.74%) [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][4][6] Core Views - Short - term cotton prices face limited upside due to hedging pressure and weak demand, but are optimistic in the long - term due to low initial inventory and resilient consumption [2] - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate until the end of the year and may hit new lows next year due to global supply surplus [4] - Pulp prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a low level as the fundamentals improve insufficiently, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,605 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,618 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: India's cotton initial inventory in the 2025.10 - 2026.9 season is expected to reach about 1.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 55%, and the import volume from October to December may be 340,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: Sino - US negotiations have made progress, but the actual purchase volume of US cotton by China is uncertain. The US government shutdown has delayed key data release, and the short - term upside of the outer market is limited due to supply pressure and weak export signing [2] - Domestic: The new cotton market starts with low inventory, but the supply has been supplemented. The rising purchase price of seed cotton and the expected decline in production support the post - holiday market, but the short - term upside of cotton prices is limited due to hedging and weak demand [2] Strategy - Neutral. There is a possibility of a callback in the short - term, and cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after the seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5448 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+ 0.13%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - Market News: As of November 4, 21 sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh, India have started operations, and more are expected to start soon [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Supply surplus has pushed prices below 15 cents. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined, the global sugar market may still be in a bear cycle in the 25/26 season [3] - Zhengzhou sugar: The expected increase in domestic sugar production is strong, but the price is near the cost line, and the downward space is limited due to policy support [4] Strategy - Neutral. Oscillate until the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [4] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5368 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.15%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5060 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [4] - Market News: The spot price of imported wood pulp showed a strengthening trend, with some prices up 10 - 70 yuan/ton [4] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have limited impact. Domestic imports have rebounded, and port inventories remain high [5] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand. Downstream paper mills purchase cautiously and do not stock up on a large scale [5] Strategy - Neutral. Pulp prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to peak - season demand [6]

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views Pig Industry - Recently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has declined, the market supply is relatively loose, and the pig price has weakened. However, the overall slaughter progress in November will slow down, which may boost the pig price to some extent. Currently, the market has entered a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread can continue to be held [2]. Oil and Fat Industry - For palm oil, due to concerns about increased production and slowed exports, the futures price has further declined. It is necessary to pay attention to whether it can find support around 4000 ringgit and gradually stop falling and stabilize. Overall, it is expected to show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For soybean oil, the fundamentals in the US are currently bearish, but the rapid rise of CBOT soybeans has boosted the CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, the supply is sufficient and the demand is weak, and the market may either rebound after a decline or directly rebound after a narrow - range oscillation [5]. Corn Industry - Currently, the concentrated supply of corn and the expected selling pressure limit the upward movement of the futures price, and the market is in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, with low imports and resilient demand, and policy regulation, the price will be supported [6]. Meal Industry - China is expected to purchase 12 million tons of new - crop US soybeans this year, which has led to a sharp rise in the US soybean futures price. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but the cost support is strengthening, and the domestic soybean meal is expected to show a strong trend. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is tightening, and the rapeseed meal price has risen sharply [8]. Cotton Industry - The purchase of seed cotton is approaching the end, and the cost of new cotton provides strong support for the cotton price. However, the price also faces hedging pressure, and the downstream demand is weak. In the short - term, the cotton price may oscillate within a range [10]. Sugar Industry - The expected increase in the supply surplus and the weakening of energy prices have led to a weak trend in the raw sugar price. However, as the sugar price is currently far below the Brazilian ethanol parity level, some sugar mills may reduce sugar production and increase ethanol production. It is expected that the raw sugar price will be supported around 14 cents per pound in the short - term, but will generally maintain a weak and oscillating trend. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure but is relatively resistant to decline [13]. Egg Industry - In the short - term, the egg market still faces a situation of oversupply, and the price may be in a dilemma of rising or falling. However, with the slow recovery of demand, the price may gradually transition from a stalemate to a slow increase, and it is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Futures Indicators - The main contract basis decreased by 32.12% to 465, the price of Live Pig 2605 decreased by 0.80% to 11800 yuan/ton, and the price of Live Pig 2601 decreased by 0.68% to 11735 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 18.75% to - 65, the main contract position increased by 7.26% to 144679, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 10.19% to 185 [2]. Spot Prices - The spot prices in various regions generally decreased, with Henan down 300 yuan/ton to 12200 yuan/ton, Shandong down 200 yuan/ton to 12350 yuan/ton, etc. [2]. Spot Indicators - The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.73% to 158597, the weekly strip price remained unchanged at 18.47, the weekly piglet price decreased by 23.08% to 20 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan/kg, the weekly slaughter weight decreased by 0.16% to 127.69 kg, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 51.89% to - 89 yuan/head, the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit increased by 37.83% to - 180 yuan/head, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 0.07% to 40350000 heads [2]. Oil and Fat Industry Palm Oil - The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 1.15% to 8600 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2601 decreased by 1.14% to 8664 yuan/ton, the basis remained unchanged at - 64, the warehouse receipts increased from 0 to 250, and the import cost decreased by 1.24% to 9123.6 yuan/ton, while the import profit increased by 2.97% to - 460 yuan/ton [5]. Soybean Oil - The price of Y2601 decreased by 0.22% to 8110 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 4.41% to 260, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 27644 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.51% to 9800 yuan/ton, the futures price of OI601 increased by 0.51% to 9470 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 0.61% to 330, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7540 [5]. Spreads - The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 11.76% to 190, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 16.00% to - 58, the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 37.37% to 386, the spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 23.33% to - 230, the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread increased by 6.31% to - 802, the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread increased by 5.93% to 1430, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread increased by 5.10% to 1360 [5]. Corn Industry Corn - The price of Corn 2601 increased by 0.52% to 2141 yuan/ton, the basis increased to 9, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 6.19% to - 103, the Shekou bulk grain price decreased by 0.88% to 2240 yuan/ton, the north - south trade profit decreased by 102.56% to - 1 yuan/ton, the import profit decreased by 8.29% to 259 yuan/ton, the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning decreased by 9.25% to 628, the position decreased by 0.61% to 1761555, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 63966 [6]. Corn Starch - The price of Corn Starch 2601 increased by 0.53% to 2453 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 18.57% to 57 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.78% to - 105, the 01 starch - corn spread increased by 0.65% to 312, the Shandong starch profit decreased by 49.17% to 61 yuan/ton, the position decreased by 0.09% to 280187, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.41% to 12453 [6]. Meal Industry Soybean Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.66% to 3040 yuan/ton, the futures price of M2601 increased by 0.17% to 3026 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 1500.00% to 14, the import crushing profit for US Gulf in January increased by 3.8% to - 661, the import crushing profit for Brazil in December decreased by 23.8% to - 307, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 42332 [8]. Rapeseed Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 2.02% to 2520 yuan/ton, the futures price of RM2601 increased by 4.31% to 2491 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 64.63% to 29, the import crushing profit for Canada in January increased by 32.60% to 659, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2955 [8]. Soybean - The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3900 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 0.63% to 4076 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 12.87% to - 176. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3940 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract increased by 0.48% to 3738 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 8.18% to 202, and the warehouse receipts increased by 2.07% to 7388 [8]. Spreads - The soybean meal 01 - 05 spread decreased by 5.29% to 197, the rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread increased by 141.30% to 111, the spot soybean - oil ratio decreased by 1.01% to 2.75, the main - contract soybean - oil ratio decreased by 0.39% to 2.68, the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 5.45% to 520, and the 2601 soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 15.48% to 535 [8]. Cotton Industry Futures Market - The price of Cotton 2605 increased by 0.07% to 13812 yuan/ton, the price of Cotton 2601 increased by 0.04% to 13600 yuan/ton, the price of ICE US cotton increased by 0.20% to 65.69 cents per pound, the 5 - 1 spread increased by 50.00% to 15 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract decreased by 0.73% to 573916, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.31% to 2494, and the effective forecast increased by 1.45% to 1465 [10]. Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.12% to 14656 yuan/ton, the CC Index of 3128B decreased by 0.01% to 14859 yuan/ton, the FC Index of M: 1% increased by 0.09% to 13242 yuan/ton, the 3128B - 01 contract spread decreased by 2.62% to 1041 yuan/ton, the 3128B - 05 contract spread decreased by 2.13% to 1056 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B - FC Index of M: 1% spread decreased by 0.80% to 1617 yuan/ton [10]. Industry Situation - The commercial inventory increased by 68.4% to 172.02 million tons, the industrial inventory decreased by 4.3% to 80.93 million tons, the import volume increased by 42.9% to 10 million tons, the bonded area inventory decreased by 25.0% to 0.3 million tons, the yarn inventory days increased by 1.6% to 25.24 days, the grey cloth inventory days increased by 1.0% to 31.43 days, the cotton outbound shipment volume increased by 22.6% to 53.46 million tons, the textile enterprise C32s immediate processing profit increased by 0.1% to - 1824.9 yuan/ton, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles increased by 17.7% to 123.05 billion yuan, the export volume of textile yarns, fabrics, and products decreased by 3.4% to 11.967 billion US dollars, and the export volume of clothing and clothing accessories decreased by 12.0% to 12.453 billion US dollars [10]. Sugar Industry Futures Market - The price of Sugar 2601 increased by 0.29% to 5499 yuan/ton, the price of Sugar 2605 increased by 0.37% to 5433 yuan/ton, the price of ICE raw sugar increased by 1.80% to 14.68 cents per pound, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.71% to 66 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract increased by 0.01% to 372791, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.90% to 7462, and the effective forecast remained unchanged at 586 [12]. Spot Market - The Nanning spot price remained unchanged at 5750 yuan/ton, the Kunming spot price decreased by 0.26% to 5695 yuan/ton, the Nanning basis decreased by 5.93% to 317, the Kunming basis decreased by 11.78% to 262, the imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) price decreased by 0.62% to 3990 yuan/ton, the imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) price decreased by 0.65% to 5052 yuan/ton [12]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 10.48 million tons, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 4.59% to 6.465 million tons, the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased by 41.20% to 0.2666 million tons, the national cumulative sugar sales rate decreased by 2.60% to 93.9%, the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi increased by 4.80% to 93.9%, the national industrial inventory decreased by 41.20% to 0.6821 million tons, the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi increased by 62.90% to 0.4421 million tons, the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan increased by 26.60% to 0.3365 million tons, and the sugar import volume increased by 37.50% to 0.55 million tons [12]. Egg Industry Futures and Spot Indicators - The price of the Egg 12 contract increased by 0.38% to 3158 yuan/500KG, the price of the Egg 01 contract increased by 0.87% to 3347 yuan/500KG, the egg - producing area price decreased by 2.15% to 2.88 yuan/jin, the basis decreased by 37.13% to - 278 yuan/500KG, the 12 - 01 spread decreased by 9.88% to - 189 [15]. Industry Indicators - The price of egg - laying chicken chicks increased by 5.66% to 2.8 yuan/chick, the price of culled chickens decreased by 4.20% to 4.11 yuan/jin, the egg - feed ratio increased by 1.28% to 2.38, and the breeding profit increased by 6.36% to - 24.44 yuan/chick [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report Pig Industry - Short - term pig prices may be supported. The current market has entered a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 inverse spread can continue to be held [2] Oil and Fat Industry - Palm oil may gradually stop falling and stabilize around 4000 ringgit. US soybean oil fundamentals are currently bearish, but cost - side support exists. Domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, and the market is in a multi - empty coexistence situation. Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward trend, and soybean oil may experience a rebound after a possible decline [5] Corn Industry - The corn market is currently in a low - level oscillation, with selling pressure limiting the upward movement. In the medium - to - long - term, it will be in a tight - balance pattern with policy support [6] Meal Industry - Domestic soybean meal is expected to show a strong upward trend, and rapeseed meal prices have risen significantly [8] Cotton Industry - Short - term cotton prices may oscillate within a range [10] Sugar Industry - International raw sugar prices are in a weak - oscillation trend, and domestic sugar prices are relatively resistant to decline, maintaining a low - level oscillation [12][13] Egg Industry - Short - term egg prices may be in a situation where they are difficult to rise or fall, and are expected to gradually transition to a slow - rising trend, with prices oscillating in a wide range at the bottom [15] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis decreased by 32.12%, and the positions of the main contract increased by 7.26%. The prices of "Live Pig 2605" and "Live Pig 2601" decreased by 0.80% and 0.68% respectively [2] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in various regions decreased, with the largest decline in Hunan at 300 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.73%, the weekly price of piglets decreased by 23.08%, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits increased by 51.89% and 37.83% respectively [2] Oil and Fat Industry - **Palm Oil**: The current price in Guangdong decreased by 1.15%, the futures price of "P2601" decreased by 1.14%, and the basis remained unchanged. The import cost decreased by 1.24%, and the import profit increased by 2.97% [5] - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.36%, the futures price of "Y2601" decreased by 0.22%, and the basis decreased by 4.41% [5] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.51%, the futures price of "OI601" increased by 0.51%, and the basis increased by 0.61% [5] Corn Industry - **Corn**: The futures price of "Corn 2601" increased by 0.52%, the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port increased by 0.94%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 6.19% [6] - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of "Corn Starch 2601" increased by 0.53%, the basis decreased by 18.57%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.78% [6] Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.66%, the futures price of "M2601" increased by 0.17%, and the basis increased by 1500.00%. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans increased by 3.8%, while that of Brazilian soybeans decreased by 23.8% [8] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu increased by 2.02%, the futures price of "RM2601" increased by 4.31%, and the basis decreased by 64.63%. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed increased by 32.60% [8] Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of "Cotton 2605" increased by 0.07%, the price of ICE US cotton increased by 0.20%, and the 5 - 1 spread increased by 50.00% [10] - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of "3128B" decreased by 0.12%, and the CC Index of "3128B" decreased by 0.01% [10] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory increased by 68.4%, industrial inventory decreased by 4.3%, and imports increased by 42.9% [10] Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of "Sugar 2601" increased by 0.29%, the price of ICE raw sugar increased by 1.80%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.71% [12] - **Spot Market**: The Nanning price remained unchanged, and the Kunming price decreased by 0.26%. The basis in Nanning and Kunming decreased by 5.93% and 11.78% respectively [12] - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 9.17%, and industrial inventory decreased by 41.20% [12] Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the "Egg 12 Contract" increased by 0.38%, and the price of the "Egg 01 Contract" increased by 0.87% [15] - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price decreased by 2.15%, and the basis decreased by 37.13% [15] - **Industry Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks increased by 5.66%, the price of culled chickens decreased by 4.20%, and the breeding profit increased by 6.36% [15]

农产品日报 | 2025-10-24 郑棉期价延续反弹，内外糖价走势分化 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13575元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨，幅度+0.30%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14652元/吨，较前一日变动+9元/吨，现货基差CF01+1077，较前一日变动-31；3128B棉全国均价14784元/吨， 较前一日变动+12元/吨，现货基差CF01+1209，较前一日变动-28。 近期市场资讯，据印度商务部数据显示，8月印度棉花进口量约为6.3万吨，环比（5.8万吨）增加8.4%，同比（4.7 万吨）增加33.9%。据澳大利亚当地行业机构消息，至10月初25年度棉花加工工作接近尾声，进度约95%；检验进 度约90%。根据最新统计数据显示，2025年9月份越南商品出口总额为426.7亿美元，环比下降1.65%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续震荡反弹。国际方面，受美国政府停摆影响，产业多项关键数据推迟发布，使得市场缺乏明确 交易线索，波动进一步放大。由于此前USDA对于部分国家的产量调整或尚未到位，新年度全球棉市供需格局预计 仍将趋于宽松。叠加当前北半球新棉集 ...

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][8] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, short - term prices may weaken due to new cotton listing,增产 expectations, and weak demand, but long - term prices are optimistic due to low initial inventory and consumption resilience [2][3] - For sugar, short - term prices may follow the external market, and long - term prices are bearish due to global surplus expectations [3][5] - For pulp, the fundamental improvement is insufficient, and short - term prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations, with attention on the actual implementation of fourth - quarter demand [7][8] Group 3: Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,540 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.56%) [1] - Spot: Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,586 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton [1] - Import: In September 2025, China imported 9.5 tons of cotton, a 31.16% increase from the previous month and an 18.67% decrease from the same period last year. In the first nine months of 2025, imports were 68.5 tons, a 69.82% decrease from the same period last year [2] Market Analysis - International: Due to the US government shutdown, key data was postponed, and the new - year global cotton market is expected to be loose. The short - term external market is under pressure [2] - Domestic: Cotton de - stocking is fast, and the new - year market starts with low inventory. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized, limiting the decline of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term prices may weaken, but long - term prices are optimistic after seasonal pressure [3] Group 4: Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5438 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.18%) [3] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5770 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Export: Brazil exported 233.46 tons of sugar and molasses in the third week of October, a 2.68% decrease from the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures rose during the day and fell at night following the external market. Brazilian supply is strong, suppressing raw sugar prices, but there is support from the ethanol price [4][5] - In China, short - term supply is sufficient, but the increase in production in the new season may be less than expected [5] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term prices may follow the external market, and long - term prices are bearish [3][5] Group 5: Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5170 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) [5] - Spot: The price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas softwood pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual impact on supply is limited, and domestic port inventory remains high [7] - Demand: Weak demand in Europe, the US, and China is the main factor suppressing pulp prices. The traditional peak season has not seen large - scale restocking [7] Strategy - Neutral. Pulp prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of fourth - quarter demand [8]

农产品日报 | 2025-10-10 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13295元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨，幅度+0.61%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14755元/吨，较前一日变动-46元/吨，现货基差CF01+1460，较前一日变动-185；3128B棉全国均价14739元/吨， 较前一日变动-20元/吨，现货基差CF01+1444，较前一日变动-203。 近期市场资讯，巴西2025/26年度新棉供应放量，加上海外纺企刚需补库，装运节奏明显加快。9月巴西棉出口量为 17.9万吨，环比（7.7万吨）大幅增加130.8%，同比（17.0万吨）增加5.5%。从当月出口目的地看，中国为主要出 口国，出口量占总量的19%；巴基斯坦及越南出口量排第二，各占比15%；孟加拉出口量排第三，占比14%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价小幅反弹。国际方面，9月USDA报告调增全球棉花产量和消费量，期初库存和期末库存继续调减， 全球库存创近四年低点，不过USDA对于中国等增产国家的产量调整或尚未到位，新年度全球棉市供需格局预计仍 将趋于宽松。叠加当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶段性供应压力增加，而美棉出口 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [4] - Sugar: Neutral [8] - Pulp: Neutral [11] 2. Core Views - Cotton: New cotton production increase expectations continue to suppress the market, and with the weak peak season in September and insufficient demand support, cotton prices still have the risk of further decline [4] - Sugar: The fundamental driving force is still downward, but there is cost support after continuous decline, so the short - term downside space may be limited [8] - Pulp: The current pulp fundamentals have insufficient improvement, the entire industry chain lacks positive driving forces, and short - term pulp prices may remain at the bottom and continue to fluctuate at a low level [11] 3. Summary by Industry Cotton - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the cotton 2601 contract was at 13,405 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decline. Spot: Xinjiang cotton spot price was 14,995 yuan/ton, down 203 yuan/ton. The national weighted average spot price was 15,043 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton [1] - Internationally, from September 12 - 18, US 2025/26 upland cotton net signings were 19,527 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week. Shipments were 31,116 tons, a 14% increase from the previous week. As of September 23, about 49% of the US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, an 8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [1] - Domestically, in August 2025, China's cotton cloth exports were 563 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.27% and a year - on - year increase of 14.20%. From January - August 2025, exports were 4.2 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 10.50% [2] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, the September USDA report increased global cotton production and consumption, and reduced beginning and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales [3] - Domestically, Xinjiang cottonseed has started to be purchased. The expected panic buying has not occurred. The estimated Xinjiang production is about 7.3 million tons, and the market may face pressure during the peak listing period [3] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the sugar 2601 contract was at 5,478 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase. Spot: Guangxi Nanning's sugar spot price was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Yunnan Kunming's was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [5] - Internationally, it is estimated that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of September was 45.92 million tons, a 6.8% year - on - year increase, and sugar production was 3.6 million tons, a 15% year - on - year increase [5][6] - Domestically, as of September 23, two sugar enterprises in Inner Mongolia have started production for the 2025/26 season, and the estimated sugar production is 650,000 - 680,000 tons, slightly increasing from the previous season [6] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is increasing, and the short - term supply is strong, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. However, there is support from the ethanol price [7] - Domestically, sugar sales in August were poor, imports reached a new high, and beet sugar has started to be crushed, so the short - term supply is sufficient [7] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the pulp 2511 contract was at 5,016 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline. Spot: The average spot price of "Yinxing" softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,610 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the average price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,110 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [9] - Internationally, in August 2025, European chemical pulp consumption was 700,800 tons, a 2.35% year - on - year increase, and inventory was 707,800 tons, an 11.34% year - on - year increase [9] - Domestically, the total pulp inventory in one region and eight ports decreased by 4.46% week - on - week, with an expanded decline [9] - **Market Analysis** - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have some positive impact, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the global supply pressure remains. Domestic imports decreased in the third quarter, but port inventory remains high [10] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption has been weak. Domestic demand is the main factor suppressing pulp prices. Although there is new paper production capacity, effective demand is insufficient, and paper mills' purchasing is cautious [10]