Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Downward [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways [1] - Oils: Sideways [1] - Eggs: Sideways [1] - Pigs: Upward [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn: On Wednesday, corn continued to fluctuate. The trading in the Northeast was lackluster, and there was no profit in shipping goods to the northern port. The price in North China remained stable. The overall inventory of deep - processing enterprises was increasing, and the terminal demand was weak. Technically, the March contract showed signs of stabilizing, and short - term long positions with light positions could be considered [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Wednesday, CBOT soybean prices rose as investors adjusted their positions before the long holiday. In China, the two - meal market fluctuated downward, with spot prices slightly falling. The spot inventory was high, and the trading volume of forward contracts was large. The market atmosphere was light, and the price range was limited. A double - selling strategy was recommended [1]. - Oils: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil was basically flat. International crude oil prices rose for the sixth consecutive day. The output of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% month - on - month. In China, soybean oil and palm oil fluctuated, while rapeseed oil rose. The price direction was unclear, and a double - selling strategy was recommended [1]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, egg futures rebounded from a low level. The spot price was weak due to sufficient supply, despite the approaching New Year's Day. There was uncertainty in capacity reduction, so it was recommended to wait and see [1][2]. - Pigs: On Wednesday, the main 2603 contract of live pigs closed with a small阳线, and the spot price increased. The daily slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises increased, and the average weight decreased slightly. Technically, short - term attention should be paid to the bottom performance of the March contract, and long - term long positions with light positions could be considered for forward contracts [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Market Information - Malaysian palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%, with different decreases in different regions [3]. - On December 23, the CNF quotes of 24 - degree palm oil imports for January and February shipments increased week - on - week, and the corresponding arrival and tax - paid costs in South China also rose [3]. - The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills fluctuated. On December 24, the total trading volume was 18.45 tons, an increase of 10.99 tons from the previous day [3]. Group 4: Summary According to Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis charts, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][13]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-25 下游补库谨慎，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2728元/吨，较前日变动-17元/吨，幅度-0.62%；菜粕2605合约2344元/吨，较前 日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.21%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3080元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+352， 较前日变动+17；江苏地区豆粕现货3010元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M05+282，较前日变动+7；广东地 区豆粕现货价格3020元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M05+292，较前日变动+7。福建地区菜粕现货价格 2570元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM05+226，较前日变动+5。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部周二公布的出口销售报告显示，12月11日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净 增239.62万吨，较之前一周增加54%，较前四周均值增加69%。市场预估为净增180-290万吨。其中，对中国大陆出 口销售净增138.3万吨。阿根廷农牧渔业国秘处公布的数据显示，阿根廷11月大豆压榨量为349.3万吨，豆油产量为 58.7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply - demand pattern of bean meal remains unchanged, with soybean and bean meal inventories high and strong South American harvest expectations. The 05 contract price of bean meal follows the weak trend of US soybean prices, but the high import cost of US soybeans provides some support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and South American soybean growth [2] - For corn, the supply side has farmers reluctant to sell, and the demand side has cautious traders and mainly rigid - demand purchases from feed enterprises. Current inventories are rising but still below historical levels, and future focus should be on alternative grain auctions [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2745 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2349 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.51% [1] - Spot: Tianjin bean meal was 3080 yuan/ton, Jiangsu was 3020 yuan/ton, and Guangdong was 3030 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day. Fujian rapeseed meal was 2570 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: As of December 18, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 870,000 tons. AgRural expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean output to reach 180.4 million tons [1] Market Analysis - The domestic supply - demand situation remains stable, with soybean and bean meal inventories rising slightly. The 05 contract price is weak, but high US soybean import costs provide support. Future focus is on imports and South American soybean growth [2] Strategy - The strategy for bean meal is neutral [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2189 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous day; the corn starch 2601 contract was 2487 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.40% [3] - Spot: Liaoning corn was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jilin corn starch was 2620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - Market News: As of December 18, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.744 million tons. Brazil exported 4.426 million tons of corn in the first three weeks of December, with a daily average export volume 45% higher than the previous year [3] Market Analysis - On the supply side, farmers are reluctant to sell. On the demand side, traders are cautious, and feed enterprises make mainly rigid - demand purchases. Inventories are rising but still below historical levels, and future focus is on alternative grain auctions [4][5] Strategy - The strategy for corn is neutral [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-23 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14070元/吨，较前一日变动+55元/吨，幅度+0.39%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14986元/吨，较前一日变动+7元/吨，现货基差CF05+916，较前一日变动-48；3128B棉全国均价15154元/吨， 较前一日变动+9元/吨，现货基差CF05+1084，较前一日变动-46。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，12月12日至12月18日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验19.93万吨， 83.7%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为19.34万吨，皮马棉为0.59万吨。至同期，累计分级检验 242.43万吨，82.7%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为236.65万吨，皮马棉为5.78万吨。 市场分析 市场情绪有所好转，板块整体震荡回升 昨日郑棉期价震荡上涨。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][6] 2. Core Views - **Bean Meal**: High import costs have led to low procurement of US soybeans, and US soybean exports are below expectations. South American soybeans are growing well, with strong expectations of a bumper harvest, causing US soybean prices to be weak. In China, the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with soybean and bean meal inventories at high levels. The price of the 05 contract is weak, following US soybean prices, but high import costs provide some support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and South American soybean growth [2] - **Corn**: On the supply side, farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a slow grain - selling pace. On the demand side, traders' inventory increases slowly, and their purchasing is cautious. Deep - processing plants' operations are stable, with slightly increased inventory and improved purchasing willingness. Feed enterprises mainly make just - in - time purchases and adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Current inventories are rising but still below historical levels. The future focus is on alternative grain auctions, and corn spot prices are expected to adjust [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2741 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.22%) from the previous day. Spot prices in Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong were 3080 yuan/ton, 3020 yuan/ton, and 3030 yuan/ton respectively. As of December 17, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 67.3% complete. In November, Argentina exported 218.9 million tons of soybeans, 56.2 million tons of soybean oil, and 271.4 million tons of bean meal [1] - **Market Analysis**: High import costs lead to low US soybean procurement and weak US soybean prices due to South American competition. In China, the supply - demand pattern is stable, with high inventories, and the 05 contract price is weak but supported by import costs [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral [3] 3.2 Corn - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2192 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The corn starch 2511 contract was 2497 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.20%). As of December 17, Argentina's 2025/26 corn planting area was 69.5% of the expected area. In November, Argentina exported 158.4 million tons of corn. As of December 18, Ukraine had harvested 94% of its planned grain area, with a total yield of 5657.6 million tons [3] - **Market Analysis**: Farmers' reluctance to sell slows the grain - selling pace. Traders are cautious in purchasing, while deep - processing plants' purchasing willingness has improved. Feed enterprises mainly make just - in - time purchases. Inventories are rising but below historical levels, and future focus is on alternative grain auctions [5] - **Strategy**: Neutral [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil may have a short - term rebound and is in the process of bottom - hunting through oscillations [2][4] - Soybean oil is struggling to stabilize due to the weak performance of US soybeans [2][4] - Soybean meal is in a low - level oscillation [2][11] - Soybean No.1 is oscillating [2][11] - For corn, attention should be paid to the spot market [2][13] - Sugar is running weakly [2][17] - Cotton is oscillating with a slightly upward trend, and downstream demand should be monitored [2][22] - Eggs will maintain an oscillating state [2][28] - The peak demand for pigs during the Winter Solstice has arrived [2][30] - For peanuts, attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills [2][36] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's main contract had a daytime closing price of 8,368 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase and a night - time closing price of 8,406 yuan/ton with a 0.45% increase. Soybean oil's main contract had a daytime closing price of 7,802 yuan/ton with a 0.26% decrease and a night - time closing price of 7,776 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of October decreased by 10% to 2.33 million tons, domestic consumption increased by 8.5% to 2.22 million tons, and production was 4.35 million tons, higher than September. The export volume in October was 2.8 million tons, about 3% lower than the same period last year [6] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean No.1 2601 had a daytime closing price of 4041 yuan/ton with a 1.25% decrease and a night - time closing price of 4042 yuan/ton with a 0.17% decrease. DCE soybean meal 2605 had a daytime closing price of 2747 yuan/ton with a 0.69% decrease and a night - time closing price of 2742 yuan/ton with a 0.11% decrease [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 18, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to long - position liquidation, global sufficient supply, and unclear Chinese demand prospects. Exporters sold 114,000 tons of US soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 season [10][12] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2601 was 2216 yuan/ton with a 0.23% decrease during the day and 2219 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase at night. The closing price of C2603 was 2190 yuan/ton with a 0.73% decrease during the day and remained unchanged at night [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of northern corn for bulk shipping and containerized first - class grain at ports remained stable compared to the previous day. The prices of corn in Northeast China were slightly lower in some areas, while those in North China were oscillating strongly [15] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.48 cents/pound with a 0.28 - cent decrease. The mainstream spot price was 5300 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan decrease, and the futures main contract price was 5102 yuan/ton with a 37 - yuan decrease [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: As of December 15, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 28.3% year - on - year. Brazil exported 3.3 million tons in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons year - on - year. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons [17] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 13,960 yuan/ton with a 0.25% increase during the day and 13965 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase at night. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,045 yuan/ton with a 0.20% decrease during the day and 20015 yuan/ton with a 0.15% decrease at night [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: The spot trading of cotton has weakened, and the prices of pure - cotton yarn have fluctuated. The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly, but the overall trend is still weak [23] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2601 was 3067 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.87% decrease, and the closing price of egg 2602 was 2916 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.48% decrease [28] - **Macro and Industry News**: Not provided Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 12,150 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 12,360 yuan/ton. The prices of futures contracts such as pig 2601, 2603, and 2605 also had corresponding changes [32] - **Macro and Industry News**: Yunnan Shennong, Guizhou Fuyuan, Dekang, Yangxiang, and COFCO registered warehouse receipts from December 4 to 15. The Ministry of Commerce determined that there was dumping of imported related pork and by - products from the EU [33] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9400 yuan/ton, the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7300 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK601 was 8066 yuan/ton with no change, and the closing price of PK603 was 7996 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase [36] - **Macro and Industry News**: In Henan, the prices of peanuts were generally stable or slightly lower; in Jilin, the prices were basically stable; in Liaoning, the trading was in a stalemate; in Shandong, the prices were basically stable [37]

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral to bullish, suggesting to focus on opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips [3] Core View - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated upwards yesterday, breaking through the 14,000 integer mark. Globally, the USDA made minor adjustments to the global cotton supply and demand data this month, with both production and demand decreasing in the 2025/26 season and a slight increase in ending stocks. In the short term, ICE U.S. cotton will remain under pressure, but in the medium to long term, it is in a low - valuation range with limited further downside. Domestically, cotton production continues to increase in the 2025/26 season. Short - term supply is abundant, but the resistance to hedging on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the cotton price downside is also limited [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 14,000 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,884 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,060 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. In India, the cotton listing volume on December 12, 2025/26 was about 42,000 tons of lint, and the CCI auctioned about 75,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment to global cotton supply and demand data in the 25/26 season was small, with both production and demand decreasing and ending stocks slightly increasing. The U.S. cotton production increased slightly, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term ICE U.S. cotton is under pressure, and the upward drive is unclear. Domestic: Cotton production continues to increase in the 25/26 season. Short - term supply is abundant, but the resistance to hedging on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the cotton price downside is limited [2] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Focus on opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [7] Core View - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to be weak yesterday, hitting a new low in the night session. The global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - to - medium - term international sugar price rebound space is limited. The fundamental driving force of Zhengzhou sugar is downward, but the short - term decline space is also limited [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract yesterday was 5207 yuan/ton, down 113 yuan/ton or 2.12% from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5295 yuan/ton, unchanged. As of December 15, 2025/26, 479 sugar mills in India were in operation, 6 more than the same period last year, and the sugar production was 7.79 million tons, an increase of 1.72 million tons or 28.34% [4] Market Analysis - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to be weak, hitting a new low. The short - term support for the raw sugar futures price to stop falling and rebound is limited by the unchanged global sugar supply surplus pattern. The fundamental driving force of Zhengzhou sugar is downward, but the short - term decline space is limited [5] Strategy - Neutral. Pay attention to the impact of the capital side on the futures market, and expect low - level consolidation [7] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The price of pulp futures oscillated and closed higher yesterday. Overseas supply is disturbed, and the demand in Europe has improved to some extent. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high, but the recent port inventory has declined significantly, and the future expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp price to stabilize [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract yesterday was 5572 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 0.69% from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5565 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mainly stable, with individual prices declining [7] Market Analysis - Overseas, there are continuous news of pulp mill shutdowns for maintenance, and the European demand has improved. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, the paper industry is in a state of overcapacity, and the port inventory is at a historical high, but the recent port inventory has declined, and the future expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp price [8] Strategy - Neutral. The previous bearish factors have been digested, and the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently, but the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation will limit the upward space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the futures market [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: The reduction in production is not clear, and the rebound height is limited [2]. - Soybean oil: There is insufficient driving force from US soybeans, and soybean oil will mainly fluctuate [2]. - Soybean meal: US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal may follow the adjustment [2]. - Soybean: Adjustment and fluctuation [2]. - Corn: Pay attention to the spot market [2]. - Sugar: Consolidation at a low level [2]. - Cotton: Fluctuating strongly, pay attention to downstream demand [2]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the purchases of oil mills [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 8,608 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.55%, and 8,496 yuan/ton during the night session, down 1.30%. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 8,240 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.34%, and 7,954 yuan/ton during the night session, down 3.47% [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10 were 280,048 tons, up 46.98% from the same period last month. In the 2025/26 fiscal year, global soybean exports are expected to increase, mainly driven by Brazil. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record 110 million tons, up 6.7% from 2024/25. US soybean exports are expected to be 43 million tons, down 14% from 2024/25 [5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of DCE soybean 2601 was 4,138 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.70%, and 4,122 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.70%. The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2605 was 2,770 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.58%, and 2,765 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.29% [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 12, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. Traders were worried about the slowdown in US soybean export demand and the upcoming Brazilian soybean harvest. The US Department of Agriculture confirmed that private exporters sold 132,000 tons of US soybeans to China [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity: -1; soybean trend intensity: -1 [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of C2601 was 2,242 yuan/ton, up 0.22% during the day session and unchanged during the night session. The closing price of C2603 was 2,233 yuan/ton, down 0.04% during the day session and up 0.04% during the night session [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the container first - class grain port price remained flat. The price of imported sorghum and barley in Guangdong was reported [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity: 0 [18]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 15.1 cents/pound, up 0.25. The mainstream spot price was 5,380 yuan/ton, down 40. The futures main contract price was 5,214 yuan/ton, down 31 [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of the end of November, India's sugar production in the 25/26 fiscal year increased by 49.8% year - on - year. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of November increased by 9% year - on - year, and exports in November decreased by 90,000 tons year - on - year. China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October, an increase of 210,000 tons [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity: -1 [22]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of CF2605 was 13,850 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.07%, and 13,905 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.40%. The closing price of CY2603 was 19,980 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.12%, and 20,055 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.38% [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The cotton spot basis was generally stable. The price of pure cotton yarn was generally stable, and some spinning mills reduced prices to clear inventory. ICE cotton futures fell slightly, and US cotton exports were still poor [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity: 0 [28]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 7,400 yuan/ton, down 60. The closing price of PK601 was 8,108 yuan/ton, up 0.35%, and the closing price of PK603 was 8,080 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [30]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, Nanyang Baisha common peanuts were priced at 3.7 - 3.85, and Kaifeng large peanuts were priced at 3.8 - 3.9. In Jilin, 308 common peanuts were priced at 4.7 - 4.8. In Liaoning, 308 common peanuts were priced at 4.7 - 4.8. In Shandong, the supply was limited, and the price was basically stable [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity: 0 [32].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [4][7] Group 2: Core Views - The current supply - demand pattern of soybean meal has not changed. With high oil - mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal, and no sudden news to stimulate the market, the overall price of soybean meal is mainly in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [3] - For corn, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China is relatively fast, but recently, farmers' reluctance to sell has led to a relatively tight effective supply. As the price reaches a relatively high level and holidays approach, the grain - selling progress is expected to accelerate. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed enterprises have rigid demand, while traders are willing to store high - quality grain [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Meal - **Market News and Key Data**: - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2754 yuan/ton, a change of - 9 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2329 yuan/ton, a change of + 12 yuan/ton (+ 0.52%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the spot price of soybean meal was 3060 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 3030 yuan/ton, a change of + 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2540 yuan/ton, a change of + 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - US Department of Agriculture's December supply - demand report: The estimated soybean production in the US for the 2025/26 season is 4.253 billion bushels, the sown area is 81.1 million acres, the harvested area is 80.3 million acres, the yield per acre is 53 bushels, the export volume is 1.635 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is 290 million bushels. Brazil's National Grain Exporters Association predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in December will be 3.33 million tons and soybean meal exports will be 1.83 million tons [2] - **Market Analysis**: The current supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with high oil - mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation. The price of soybean meal is mainly in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [3] Corn - **Market News and Key Data**: - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2241 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton (+ 0.22%) from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2532 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton (+ 0.40%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the spot price of corn was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Jilin, the spot price of corn starch was 2650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [4] - US Department of Agriculture's December supply - demand report: The estimated corn production in the US for the 2025/26 season is 16.752 billion bushels, the sown area is 98.7 million acres, the harvested area is 90 million acres, the yield per acre is 186 bushels, the export volume is 3.2 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is 2.029 billion bushels [4] - **Market Analysis**: In China, on the supply side, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell has led to tight supply. As the price rises and holidays approach, the grain - selling progress may accelerate. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed enterprises have rigid demand, while traders are willing to store high - quality grain [5][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) have a neutral rating [3][4][5][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - The market lacks obvious drivers, and each commodity sector is experiencing overall fluctuations. The prices of cotton, sugar, and pulp are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and external market conditions [1][2][3][6][7] Group 3: Cotton Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,740 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton (-0.07%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,843 yuan/ton, a change of -4 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1103, a change of +6 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,999 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1259, a change of +0 from the previous day [1] - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 23.869 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5.12% and a month-on-month increase of 7.22%. From January to November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 267.795 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 1.91% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, with large short-term supply pressure, and the global textile terminal consumption is still weak. In the long term, the US cotton is in a low-valued range, with limited further downward space, but the upward drive is not clear [2] - Domestically, the cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to continue to increase. With the end of cotton harvesting in Xinjiang, the cotton production forecast has risen again. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton will still be suppressed by hedging orders. On the demand side, the downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the finished product inventory pressure is acceptable, limiting the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, with the expansion of downstream production capacity, the domestic cotton consumption has increased, and the supply and demand in the new season are not expected to be too loose. After the seasonal pressure, the cotton price can be viewed optimistically. Attention should be paid to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 4: Sugar Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5343 yuan/ton, a change of +6 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5410 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 67, a change of -6 from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5345 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 2, a change of -6 from the previous day [3] - Brazil exported 817,500 tons of sugar in the first week of December, with an average daily export volume of 163,500 tons, a 21% increase compared to the average daily export volume of 134,900 tons in December of the previous year [3] Market Analysis - The global sugar production surplus continues to suppress the market, but the current negative factors have basically been reflected in the market. In the short term, the downward space of the international sugar price is limited, but there is no sign of a reversal. In the long term, it depends on the weather and the policies of major producing countries next year [3] - Domestically, the sugar production is expected to continue to increase for the third year. The sugar mills in Guangxi have started to crush sugar, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The import profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota is still high, and the import volume from July to October has increased, increasing the supply pressure [3] Strategy - The fundamental driving force is still downward, but the current valuation is low, and sugar mills have the intention to support the price at the beginning of the crushing season. The short-term downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but attention should be paid to the disturbance of the capital side to the market, and there is a possibility of a new low [4][5] Group 5: Pulp Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5386 yuan/ton, a change of -6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 + 114, a change of +6 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ussuri and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5005 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 - 381, a change of +6 from the previous day [6] - The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some showing a weakening trend. The trading in the market was light, and the prices of some grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai markets decreased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - On the supply side, there have been continuous news about overseas pulp mills shutting down for maintenance. Domtar permanently closed the Crofton paper mill in Canada, and the Rauma pulp mill of Stora Enso will be temporarily shut down [7] - On the demand side, the wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased significantly in October, indicating some improvement in demand. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation this year, the terminal effective demand has been insufficient, the paper mills' operating rate is not high, and the overall output of finished paper has not increased significantly. The raw material procurement mentality of downstream paper mills is cautious, and the procurement willingness is generally low, resulting in the domestic port inventory still being at a historical high [7] Strategy - Due to the previous negative factors being gradually digested by the market, affected by short-covering and overseas supply disturbances, the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently. However, due to the lack of substantial improvement in the supply and demand situation, the upward space of the pulp price may be limited. Attention should also be paid to the disturbance of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts to the market [8]