美国央行官员再度释放偏鹰派信号。 堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长杰弗里.施密德表示，在通胀仍高于目标水平的背景下，美联储应将利率维 持在"略具限制性"的区间，过早或进一步降息可能导致高通胀持续更长时间。 施密德周三在新墨西哥州阿尔伯克基发表事先准备的讲话时指出，当前利率水平理应对经济活动形成一 定约束，但现实中这种抑制效果并不明显。"在经济增长仍具动能、通胀依然偏热的情况下，我没有看 到足够多的经济降温迹象。" 美联储上月决定维持利率不变，联邦基金利率目标区间为3.5%至3.75%。施密德表示支持这一决定，此 前美联储在2025年最后几个月已连续三次降息。目前利率水平被视为接近多数官员估计的"中性利率"， 即既不刺激也不抑制经济的水平。 施密德认为，持续的价格压力表明美国经济中需求仍在多个领域超过供给。尽管人工智能等新技术未来 可能推动生产率提升，从而在不推高通胀的情况下支撑经济扩张，"目前尚未到达这一阶段"。他的表态 发布之际，最新数据显示，美国1月非农就业增幅创一年多新高，失业率意外降至4.3%。施密德指出， 2025年经济表现强劲，美国在进入2026年时仍具"相当的增长动能"。 在资产负债表问题上，施密德再次 ...

Monetary Market Summary - In 2025, the average daily transaction volume of interbank lending was 361.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1% compared to 2024 [1] - The average daily transaction volume of bond repurchase in the interbank market was 6.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.0% compared to 2024 [1] - By the end of 2025, the outstanding balance of interbank lending was 1 trillion yuan, while the outstanding balance of bond repurchase in the interbank market was 12 trillion yuan [1] - The annual weighted average interest rate for overnight pledged repos (DR001) was 1.46%, down 19 basis points from 2024; DR007 was 1.63%, also down 19 basis points; and the overnight pledged repo (R001) was 1.55%, down 21 basis points [1] Bond Market Summary - In 2025, net financing for government bonds reached 13.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5 trillion yuan compared to 2024; net financing for corporate bonds was 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 482.3 billion yuan [1] - By the end of 2025, the bond market custody balance was 196.7 trillion yuan [1] - The total transaction volume in the cash market was 425.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.4% compared to 2024 [2] - The turnover rate of the interbank bond market was 230%, a decrease of 25 percentage points from 2024 [2] - The yield on 10-year government bonds at the end of 2025 was 1.85%, with a yield spread of 51 basis points between 10-year and 1-year government bonds, narrowing by 8 basis points from the end of 2024 [2] Stock Market Summary - By the end of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.8 points, an increase of 18.4% compared to the end of 2024; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13525.0 points, an increase of 29.9% [2] - The average daily transaction volume in both markets was 1.70454 trillion yuan, an increase of 61.9% compared to 2024 [2]

Group 1: Money Market Performance - In 2025, the average daily transaction volume of interbank lending was 361.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1% compared to 2024 [2] - The average daily transaction volume of bond repurchase in the interbank market was 6.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.0% compared to 2024 [2] - The year-end balance of interbank lending was 1.0 trillion yuan, while the balance of bond repurchase was 12.0 trillion yuan [2] - The weighted average interest rate for overnight pledged repos (DR001) was 1.46%, down 19 basis points from 2024 [2] Group 2: Bond Market Performance - In 2025, net financing for government bonds reached 1.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 250 billion yuan from 2024 [3] - Net financing for corporate bonds was 240 billion yuan, an increase of 48.23 billion yuan from 2024 [3] - The bond market's custody balance was 196.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [3] - The trading volume in the cash market was 425.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.4% from 2024 [3] Group 3: Derivatives Market Performance - The transaction volume in the interbank RMB derivatives market was 58.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 58.6% from 2024 [4] - The transaction volume in the government bond futures market was 9.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 43.9% from 2024 [4] - The year-end closing price for the 10-year government bond futures main contract was 107.9 yuan, a decrease of 1.0% from 2024 [4] Group 4: Bill Market Performance - In 2025, the acceptance amount of commercial bills was 42.7 trillion yuan, while the discount amount was 33.9 trillion yuan [5] - The acceptance balance of commercial bills was 21.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2% from the end of 2024 [5] - The discount balance was 16.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.2% from the end of 2024 [5] Group 5: Stock Market Performance - By the end of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.8 points, an increase of 18.4% from the end of 2024 [6] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13525.0 points, an increase of 29.9% from the end of 2024 [6] - The average daily trading volume in both markets was 1.70454 trillion yuan, an increase of 61.9% from 2024 [6] Group 6: Interbank Bond Market Holder Structure - By the end of 2025, there were 3923 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions [7] - The top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds held 53.4% of the total, mainly concentrated in state-owned commercial banks, public funds, and insurance financial institutions [7] - The top 200 investors accounted for 84.5% of the holdings [7]

美联储米兰：利率应远低于当前水平，这种情况才合适。 来源：滚动播报 ...

杰斐逊指出，尽管通胀率一直高于美联储设定的2%的目标，但预计今年晚些时候通胀率下降的趋势将 会重现。 同时，他估计经济总体状况良好，2026年的经济增长率有望达到约2.2%。他表示："我看到一些迹象表 明，劳动力市场正趋于稳定，通胀有望回归到我们设定的2%的目标水平，而且可持续的经济增长也将 持续下去。" 杰斐逊表示，去年9月至12月期间美联储实施的三次降息，将利率调整至3.5%至3.75%的区间——接近 市场对"中性水平"的预期，该水平既不会刺激也不会抑制经济。他指出，这种立场在央行面临的两大风 险之间取得了合理平衡。 沪银上周在17230筑底，目前收盘在20000之上，算是有多头反攻的表现，周内或有较大的上涨空间，预 计目标放在25000。沪银溢价收敛至1300元/克，国内情绪迅速降温。银价或将维稳回升，白银高位波动 率极大。沪银主力合约参考运行区间18500-21000区间。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，央行当前的利率立场"完全适合"稳健的经济状况，这表明他目前并不急于重 启美联储在1月份暂停的降息举措。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 今日周一(2月9日)亚盘时段 ...

固 定 收 益 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 09 日 节后债市或延续节前趋势 1.8%或由阻力变支撑 团队成员 投资要点： 固 定 上周利率债表现偏强。尽管周初 10 年国债新券短暂突破 1.8%后受止 盈情绪影响再度调整，但此后在大行的持续买入下，10 年国债也经受住了 风险偏好修复、地方债集中发行等因素的扰动，此后随着交易情绪回暖利 率再度走低，10 年期国债利率再度降至 1.8%附近，10 年政金债以及 30 年 国债的下行幅度更大。随着春节临近，也有部分投资者关注长假因素是否 会对市场趋势带来扰动。 收 益 专 题 从历史看，节后债市的表现一般都是节前趋势的延续。过去单数年份 利率容易在春节前后上行，但双数年份利率反而多在春节前后下行，唯一 的例外是 2022 年利率在节前回落、节后走高，但这一年的特殊性在于央行 在节前降息落地，节后利率在止盈情绪和对信贷的担忧下出现了上行。之 所以呈现出这样的状态，主要还是因为岁末年末市场往往都对市场的状态 进行了充分定价，市场结构会得到一定程度的出清，而年初货币政策的导 向往往也会根据新一年的目标进行调整，而这样的调整一般也不会因为春 节因素发生变化，后续的 ...

隔夜shibor报1.2700%，下跌0.70个基点；7天shibor报1.5050%，上涨7.00个基点；14天shibor报 1.5840%，上涨8.00个基点；1月shibor报1.5500%，与前一交易日持平。3月shibor报1.5800%，与前一交 易日持平。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储戴利：如果通胀再度回升，愿意在更长时间内维持利率不变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar remains steady after reaching a two-week high, despite weak U.S. jobs data, as investors focus on upcoming nonfarm payrolls data and the potential impact of Federal Reserve leadership changes [1] Economic Data - U.S. job openings fell to the lowest level in over five years in December, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market [1] - The upcoming nonfarm payrolls data, delayed due to a recent partial government shutdown, is anticipated to provide further insights into employment trends [1] Federal Reserve Influence - President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair has positively influenced the dollar, with market expectations leaning towards a restrictive policy stance and the maintenance of central bank independence [1] - Markets are not fully anticipating another interest-rate cut until June, according to LSEG data, suggesting a cautious outlook on monetary policy [1]

当前市场核心聚焦欧、英两大央行政策决议。欧央行预计按兵不动，拉加德对通胀与增长的表态将主导 预期：强调复苏乏力、通胀回落或暗示降息，将施压欧元；警惕通胀韧性、维持政策耐心，则支撑欧元 相对强势。英国央行大概率维持3.75%利率不变，货币政策报告及贝利对降息节奏的表述为关键：承认 通胀快速回落、劳动力市场转弱，将提升降息预期利空英镑；担忧通胀粘性、强调政策审慎，或提振英 镑并抑制欧元兑英镑上行。汇市已进入央行措辞驱动的预期再定价阶段，政策鹰派程度直接决定货币相 对强弱。 技术面，欧元兑英镑处于区间震荡格局，汇价在0.8611-0.8796区间内拉锯，当前0.8670位于区间中轴。 上方0.8700为关键心理与交易阻力，突破后需站稳0.8744反弹高点，方可再度试探0.8796前高；下方支 撑聚焦0.8643前期低点及0.8611阶段底部，若英央行偏鹰或欧元区数据走弱，支撑失守将打开下行空 间，整体维持区间博弈、等待央行决议指引方向。 2月6日回溯2月5日周四，欧元兑英镑欧洲时段于0.8670附近交投，日内涨幅超0.30%。欧元此番反弹并 非自身动能走强，而是英镑在英国央行利率决议前遭短线抛压，市场谨慎情绪升温推 ...