Group 1 - The Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasizes a cautious approach to further rate cuts due to persistent inflation above the Fed's target and an upward trajectory [1][2] - Fed Governor Michelle Bowman highlights the risk of falling behind economic conditions due to a rapidly weakening labor market, advocating for decisive action to lower rates [1][4] - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first reduction since December 2024, with expectations for two more cuts this year [2][3] Group 2 - The FOMC dot plot indicates significant divergence among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with 7 officials predicting no further cuts this year and 2 supporting only one more cut [3] - Powell describes the recent rate cut as a "risk management" move aimed at adjusting monetary policy from a "moderately tight" stance to a more neutral position [3][4] - Bowman warns that the FOMC needs to act more swiftly in response to the deteriorating labor market conditions, suggesting a need for faster and larger adjustments to monetary policy [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Overall Information - Report Title: Galaxies Non - ferrous Metals R & D Report - Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Daily Morning Observation - Date: September 23, 2025 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core Views - The precious metals market shows strong upward momentum, with gold hitting a new high and silver reaching its highest level since May 2011. The market is influenced by factors such as Fed interest rate expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation concerns [2]. - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals. Although there is potential for further interest rate cuts, there are differences among policymakers. Supply is tight, and consumption shows a "peak season is not prosperous" situation [6][8]. - The alumina market has a weak fundamental trend, with domestic and foreign spot prices falling in resonance, and the import window opening slightly [11][13]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a positive market expectation, with alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable and slightly strong [16][18]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by Fed interest rate policies and domestic downstream demand. After the price correction, attention should be paid to the downstream stocking sentiment before the holidays [21][23]. - The zinc market has support at the bottom in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range, mainly due to the potential reduction in domestic supply and the downstream pre - holiday stocking demand [25][26]. - The lead market has a situation where long and short factors are intertwined, and the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [29][31]. - The nickel market maintains a wide - range oscillatory trend, with supply increasing faster than demand, and the price is affected by factors such as news from Indonesia and the Philippines [33][36]. - The stainless steel market is expected to remain oscillatory, with supply pressure above and support below due to factors such as production scheduling, inventory, and cost [39][42]. - The industrial silicon market may continue to correct in the short term, and the impact of polysilicon production scheduling and market sentiment on the price is greater [44][46]. - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward trend in spot prices, and the best strategy is to wait for the price to correct sufficiently before going long [48][50]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong in the short term, with supply and demand both being strong [52][55]. - The tin market is expected to remain oscillatory at a high level, with tight supply at the mine end and weak demand [57][60]. 4. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - **Market Review** - Gold: London gold rose by over $60 during the day, hitting a new high of over $3740, and finally closed up 1.67% at $3746.63 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures rose 1.46% to 850.98 yuan per gram [2]. - Silver: London silver reached its highest level since May 2011, closing up 2.38% at $44.02 per ounce. Shanghai silver futures rose 1.77% to 10348 yuan per kilogram [2]. - Dollar Index: It first rose and then fell, ending a three - day winning streak, closing down 0.38% at 97.30 [2]. - US Treasury Yield: The 10 - year US Treasury yield continued to rebound, closing at 4.151% [2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: It fluctuated within a narrow range, closing down 0.07% at 7.1138 [2]. - **Important Information** - Fed officials' views are divided on further interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.8%. In December, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 1.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 23.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 75.3% [2]. - **Logic Analysis** - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps last week, the expectation of two more cuts this year remains high. The risk of stagflation in the US still exists, and geopolitical conflicts occasionally emerge, driving gold prices higher. Silver shows greater upward elasticity [2]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Continue the low - buying idea. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Collar call options [4]. Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 80100 yuan per ton, down 0.02%. The Shanghai copper index decreased by 6971 lots to 470,600 lots. LME copper closed at $10002 per ton, up 0.06% [6]. - Spot: LME inventory decreased by 2275 tons to 145,300 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1511 tons to 318,200 tons [6]. - **Important Information** - Sino - US leaders' phone call improved market sentiment. Fed officials have different views on further interest rate cuts. Argentina plans to develop copper resources [6][8]. - **Logic Analysis** - Macro - factors are positive, but there are differences among policymakers on interest rate cuts. Supply is tight due to production accidents and other reasons, and consumption is weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The copper price may consolidate at a high level in the short term. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage positions. - Options: Wait and see [9]. Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session alumina 2601 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 2906 yuan per ton [11]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased, with the national weighted index down 1.2 yuan to 3009 yuan [11]. - **Important Information** - Xinjiang's alumina spot tender price decreased. The operating capacity increased slightly. Australian alumina prices decreased, and China's alumina import and export data changed [11][13]. - **Logic Analysis** - Domestic and foreign spot prices are falling, the import window is slightly open, and the fundamentals are weak [13]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The alumina price is expected to be weak. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [14]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 20265 yuan per ton [16]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased by 100 yuan per ton [16]. - **Important Information** - Policies affect the recycled aluminum industry. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in some regions changed, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched the standard warehouse receipt generation business for casting aluminum alloy [18]. - **Logic Analysis** - Some enterprises are stocking up for the National Day holiday. The downstream production rate is rising, and the market expectation is positive [18]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: After the aluminum alloy futures price pulls back from a high level, pay attention to the rebound opportunity supported by fundamentals. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 55 yuan to 20715 yuan per ton [21]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased [21]. - **Important Information** - Sino - US leaders' phone call. The inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project is progressing as planned, and China's aluminum export data changed [21][23]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Fed is cautious about further interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking sentiment before the holidays [23]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: After the aluminum price pulls back, pay attention to the opportunity of stabilizing and rebounding. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [23]. Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: LME zinc rose 0.05% to $2900 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2511 rose 0.18% to 22035 yuan per ton. The Shanghai zinc index decreased by 1558 lots to 238,500 lots [25]. - Spot: The spot price in Shanghai increased slightly, and the downstream buying sentiment was strong [25]. - **Important Information** - The domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the import data of zinc concentrate and refined zinc changed [25][26]. - **Logic Analysis** - Domestic supply may decrease slightly, and downstream pre - holiday stocking demand exists. The LME zinc price is supported by inventory reduction [26]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The zinc price may fluctuate within a range in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [27]. Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: LME lead fell 0.17% to $1999.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2511 rose 0.03% to 17165 yuan per ton. The Shanghai lead index increased by 862 lots to 101,800 lots [29]. - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead was flat. The trading volume was limited due to limited supply and high prices of recycled refined lead [29]. - **Important Information** - The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, and the import data of lead concentrate and lead - acid batteries changed [29][31]. - **Logic Analysis** - Supply may increase as some smelters plan to resume production, and downstream enterprises may stock up before the holiday. The price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [31]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The lead price may remain volatile at a high level in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [34][32]. Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: LME nickel fell $70 to $15200 per ton, and Shanghai nickel NI2511 fell 220 yuan to 121410 yuan per ton. The index position increased by 1326 lots [33]. - Spot: The premiums of different nickel products were flat [33]. - **Important Information** - Rumors about an Indonesian mining company were refuted. The Democratic Republic of the Congo may extend the cobalt export ban [33][36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The nickel price pulled back with the weak commodity market. Supply is increasing faster than demand, and the price is affected by news from Indonesia and the Philippines [36]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [37]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2511 contract rose 25 yuan to 12935 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased by 1804 lots [39]. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [41]. - **Important Information** - US import tariffs affect the stainless steel market. Taiwan's imports from Vietnam decreased. China's stainless steel consumption increased [41]. - **Logic Analysis** - Production scheduling has increased, but demand has not shown seasonal strength. The price is expected to remain oscillatory [42]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [42]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main industrial silicon futures contract decreased by 0.83% to 8950 yuan per ton, with significant position reduction [44]. - Spot: The spot price increased by 100 - 150 yuan per ton [44]. - **Important Information** - Yunnan silicon plants plan to reduce production due to electricity price increases. The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle" [46]. - **Logic Analysis** - The inventory structure is prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. The impact of polysilicon production scheduling and market sentiment on the price is greater [46]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate after the price stabilizes from the correction. - Options: Look for opportunities to sell out - of - the - money put options. - Arbitrage: None [46]. Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main polysilicon futures contract decreased by 3.63% to 50990 yuan per ton, with position increase [48]. - Spot: The spot price was stable [48]. - **Important Information** - Spain's self - use photovoltaic installation capacity has declined for three consecutive years [48]. - **Logic Analysis** - The spot price is likely to rise in the long term. There are short - term negative factors for futures, and the best strategy is to go long after the price correction [50]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Go long after the price corrects sufficiently. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. - Options: None [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2511 contract decreased by 140 yuan to 73480 yuan per ton. The position and warehouse receipts decreased [52]. - Spot: The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate increased [52]. - **Important Information** - Canada's renewable energy market has great potential, and China's lithium - ion battery export data increased [52][55]. - **Logic Analysis** - The price pulled back due to the weak commodity market. Supply growth is limited, and demand is strong. The price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong [55]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Oscillatory and slightly strong. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract decreased by 0.28% to 270610 yuan per ton, and the position increased by 263 lots [57]. - Spot: The spot price rose, and the inventory decreased [57]. - **Important Information** - Sino - US relations and Fed officials' views. An Indonesian tin company expects to achieve its production target [57][59]. - **Logic Analysis** - Supply at the mine end is tight, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's复产 and electronic consumption recovery [60]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Remain oscillatory at a high level. - Options: Wait and see [61].

Core Viewpoint - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic expresses concerns about inflation and indicates he does not plan to support another rate cut in October, despite rising employment risks [2][3]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Bostic has only planned one rate cut for the entire year of 2025, suggesting no further cuts are needed in the remaining meetings of 2023 [2]. - He acknowledges that the balance of risks has shifted, with employment concerns and inflation being more equal than three months ago [3]. Inflation Concerns - Bostic worries that inflation remains persistently above the Fed's 2% target, with core inflation projected to rise from 2.9% in July to 3.1% by year-end [5]. - He anticipates that inflation may not return to the 2% target until 2028 [5]. Labor Market Dynamics - Bostic believes the current labor market is not in crisis, but the extent of its weakness is still uncertain [5]. - He estimates that limited labor supply accounts for about one-third of the recent slowdown in hiring, with immigration policies potentially exacerbating these challenges [6][7]. Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is still unclear, as companies have adopted various strategies to mitigate cost increases [5]. - Bostic notes that the cost increases from tariffs have been more moderate than initially expected, but these buffers may deplete in the coming months, leading to prolonged moderate price pressures [5].

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold futures opened at $3,768.30 per ounce on Thursday, reflecting a 1% increase from Wednesday's close of $3,732.10 [1] - The current price of gold is up 3.1% from the opening price of $3,654.60 one week ago and has increased 12% from the opening price of $3,366 on August 25, 2025 [4] - Over the past year, gold has risen 41.9% from the opening price of $2,656.30 on September 25, 2024 [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve - Investors are focusing on new economic data for insights into the Federal Reserve's next policy moves, particularly the upcoming weekly initial jobless claims data and the August PCE index [2] - The expectation for initial jobless claims is an increase to 235,000 from 231,000, while analysts predict the monthly PCE will rise to 0.3% from 0.2% in July [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook for Gold - Gold is expected to strengthen in scenarios where interest rates decline or the economic outlook becomes uncertain [3] - Analysts are bullish on gold, with Goldman Sachs Research predicting a price of $3,700 per troy ounce by year-end 2025, representing a 40% increase from its January 2 opening price of $2,633 [12] - Rising demand from central banks and uncertainty related to U.S. tariff policy are key factors driving the increase in gold prices [12]

Core Viewpoint - Stocks experienced an increase on Friday, continuing a trend that has led to record highs for indexes, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut which has enhanced investor confidence [1] Group 1 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 98 points, equivalent to a 0.2 percent increase [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar continues to rebound, with the AUD/USD exchange rate slightly declining to 0.6609, down 0.05%, indicating low trading activity ahead of significant upcoming events [1] - US Treasury yields have collectively risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.2 basis points to 4.108%, marking the first consecutive rise since early September and the largest two-day increase in a month [1] - A report from the US Labor Department showed that initial jobless claims fell by 33,000 to 231,000, significantly below economists' expectations of 240,000, reversing the previous week's surge [1] - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for September rose to 23.2, well above the expected 2.5 and the previous value of -0.3, indicating a strong recovery in factory output despite a decline in price indicators [1] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman will speak in the House of Representatives on Monday, and the August CPI data will be released on Wednesday, which is the last CPI data before the RBA's interest rate decision on September 30 [2] - The short-term support area for the AUD/USD exchange rate is near the lower Bollinger Band around 0.6590-95, with resistance levels at 0.69435 [2]

周四，英国央行货币政策委员会以7比2的投票结果支持维持利率不变，鸽派委员Swati Dhingra和Alan Taylor支持再次降息25个基点。这一利率决定和投票结果的分歧都在经济学家的预料之中。 智通财经APP获悉，由于对通胀再度抬头的担忧加剧，英国央行周四将利率维持在4%不变，并对未来 降息保持谨慎态度。 另外，英国央行内部就如何应对能源和食品支出引发的新一轮通胀问题存在严重分歧。目前，英国家庭 的通胀预期正在上升，一些官员担心这可能会引发反馈循环，即推动工资上涨，进而导致物价进一步上 涨。 英国央行预计本月通胀率将达到4%，该数据将于货币政策委员会11月会议召开前两周左右公布。鉴于 食品对消费者的重要性，官员们尤其担心食品价格的螺旋式上涨。 他们此前曾指出，劳动力市场降温和经济低迷是未来物价压力有望缓解的有力证据。然而，近期数据显 示，在英国财政大臣Rachel Reeves 4月份上调雇主工资税和最低工资标准造成冲击后，就业市场正在企 稳。 英国央行的措辞强化了自8月上次会议以来更为谨慎的基调，这促使交易员减少了对未来降息的预期。 在此之前，本周公布的官方数据显示，通胀率几乎达到了英国央行2%目标的 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity of interest rate cuts due to significant changes in labor market risks, indicating a "lack of vitality and slight fatigue" in the current market [3][4] - Powell noted that the hiring rate is low, and an increase in layoffs could lead to a rapid rise in unemployment, highlighting the heightened risks facing employment missions [3] - Recent inflation data showed an increase, with August PCE figures at 2.7% overall and 2.9% core, driven mainly by rising commodity prices, which Powell expects to be a one-time increase [3][4] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - The current policy remains "restrictive," with a 25 basis point rate cut seen as a "risk mitigation" measure aimed at transitioning to a more neutral rate level to support employment without exacerbating inflation [4] - Powell stated that a 50 basis point cut did not receive broad support, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on significant easing [4] - The divergence in interest rate forecasts, as shown in the dot plot, stems from differing interpretations of the economic outlook and appropriate actions, which Powell described as normal in the current complex environment [4] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - The key trend for international silver is at $40.5, with recent adjustments not breaking below $41, indicating a high-level consolidation [5] - Current trading range for silver is between $41 and $43, with support levels at $41.50 or $41.10 and resistance levels at $42.20 or $42.70 [5]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 17, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 418.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 304 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 114.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding conditions remain tight due to ongoing tax payment impacts, with the overnight repo weighted average rate for deposit institutions rising over 4 basis points to around 1.48% [3] - Overnight funding quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system approached 1.6%, indicating scarce supply [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.51% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.68%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market have generally seen a decline in yields [9] - The closing prices for government bond futures showed collective increases, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.31%, the 10-year by 0.13%, the 5-year by 0.10%, and the 2-year by 0.04% [13] Group 5: Fiscal Revenue and Debt Issuance - From January to August, the national general public budget revenue reached 1,481.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with stamp duty revenue at 28.44 billion yuan, up 27.4% [13] - The central bank is actively supporting qualified financial institutions in issuing financial bonds and asset-backed securities to enhance funding sources and improve consumer credit supply capabilities [13] Group 6: Bond Market Events - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 60 billion yuan of 182-day discount treasury bonds on September 24 [18] - The China Development Bank will issue up to 25 billion yuan of fixed-rate bonds on September 18 [18] - Tencent is set to issue bonds for the first time in four years, raising approximately 9 billion yuan [18]

#报告 巴克莱前瞻9月美联储利率决议：管理风险 https://t.co/FDikZT4tMTNone (@None):None ...