Core Insights - The number of bidders at auctions across Australia has reached the highest level in the past 18 months, adding momentum to the upcoming traditional spring season [1][3]. Group 1: Auction Activity - In the last month, the average number of active bidders per auction property in Australia was 3.1, with an average of 4.7 registered bidders, marking the highest auction activity since January 2024 [3]. - In June, Victoria had an average of 3.7 registered bidders and 2.9 actual bidders, while New South Wales had 4.8 registered and 2.9 actual bidders [3]. - The peak auction activity occurred in September 2021, with an average of 4.1 bidders and 8.4 registered bidders, coinciding with historically low interest rates and heightened trading activity due to COVID-19 uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Limited housing supply has created a sense of reduced choices for buyers, while optimistic interest rate expectations have encouraged more participation in auctions [6]. - The expectation of potential further interest rate cuts this year has bolstered buyer confidence, prompting decisive action in the market [6]. - Despite more registered bidders in New South Wales, the actual number of bidders remained stable, indicating that Sydney buyers are more proactive compared to those in Melbourne, where economic uncertainties and tax policies have dampened urgency [6]. Group 3: Buyer Behavior - There is a resurgence of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) among buyers, particularly in desirable areas, as they observe others making decisive bids [8]. - Current bidders are characterized by clear plans and thorough property evaluations, contrasting with the previous presence of spontaneous bidders [8]. - The competitive atmosphere of auctions is driving hesitant buyers from the past 18 months to actively participate, indicating a return to a more vibrant market [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent criticism of the Fed Chair by Trump and the defense of central bank independence by the Treasury Secretary have increased market divergence on the future interest - rate path, weakening dollar confidence and boosting the appeal of gold as a non - interest - bearing asset. Uncertainty in interest - rate expectations has solidified the demand for safe - havens. The agreement between the US and Japan on tariff cuts initially boosted the dollar and Treasury yields, but the subsequent decline was quickly absorbed by the gold price. Multiple investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts for the year to between $3600 and $4000. The underperformance of the US in multiple economic indicators has limited the upward momentum of the dollar and yields, providing macro - environmental support for high gold prices. Geopolitical risks may trigger a rapid inflow of safe - haven funds. Future economic data and the Fed's stance at the meeting will determine the trends of Treasury yields and the dollar, which in turn will affect the gold price. It is recommended to maintain the view of buying on dips, while being cautious of short - term correction risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 778.74 yuan/gram, down 14.16 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9386 yuan/kg, down 106 yuan. The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold were 213,456 lots, down 8931 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 459,484 lots, down 18,795 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 160,396 lots, down 1408 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 135,258 lots, up 1070 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 29,358 kg, up 501 kg; that of silver was 1,188,721 kg, up 239 kg [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 787.97 yuan/gram, up 6.47 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9419 yuan/kg, up 105 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.93 yuan/gram, down 1.59 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 73 yuan/kg, up 6 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings were 954.8 tons, unchanged; silver ETF holdings were 15,207.82 tons, up 49.45 tons. Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 213,115 contracts, up 10,147 contracts; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 59,448 contracts, up 927 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total annual global demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.86%, up 1.92 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.23%, up 0.93 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 22.12%, up 0.8 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.12%, up 0.81 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US - Japan tariff negotiation reached an agreement, with the "reciprocal tariff" rate on Japan lowered from 25% to 15%, and Japan will increase imports of US rice. Trump plans to impose 15% - 50% simple tariffs on most other countries and is negotiating with the EU. The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement with a 15% tariff rate on most products. Trump criticized the Fed for lacking "courage" and called for a three - percentage - point interest - rate cut. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is 37.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 61.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.6% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are currently in a range-bound fluctuation as the market awaits the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report next Tuesday [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent non-farm payroll data has suppressed further increases in gold prices, as the market has re-priced hawkish expectations regarding interest rates, putting pressure on the precious metal [1] - A weak CPI report could provide a boost to gold prices, while a strong performance may trigger a new wave of selling [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Perspective - From a broader perspective, gold is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's easing policies, which may lead to a continued decline in real yields [1] - However, short-term hawkish re-pricing of rate cut expectations could lead to a pullback in gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The core difference between gold and silver lies in their attributes, with gold primarily having financial properties and silver possessing both industrial and financial properties, which significantly affects their market performance in 2025 [1] - Gold pricing is mainly driven by US dollar liquidity and safe-haven demand, while silver's industrial demand accounts for 58.5%, with a projected 18% growth in global photovoltaic installations, leading to a dual logic of "industrial drive + financial recovery" for silver in Q2 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - Fundamental analysis for gold focuses on monetary policy and geopolitical risks, while silver requires attention to industrial data; for instance, a rise in global manufacturing PMI above the neutral line would boost silver demand [4] - The volatility of silver is significantly higher than that of gold, making silver more suitable for short-term trading strategies, as evidenced by the higher volatility rates observed in July 2025 [5] Group 3 - In the context of the Federal Reserve's policy cycle, gold relies more on interest rate expectations, while silver's performance is influenced by both industrial data and the gold-silver ratio; a breakout in the gold-silver ratio can indicate potential valuation recovery for silver [6] - A practical case in June 2025 showed that gold rose by 2.8% due to increased steel tariffs, while silver surged by 5.3% driven by industrial demand expectations and gold-silver ratio recovery [7] Group 4 - The conclusion emphasizes that gold should focus on "monetary attributes + interest rate cycles," while silver should pay attention to "industrial demand + gold-silver ratio recovery," suggesting a dynamic balance strategy for both metals [8]

Group 1 - The article suggests that U.S. stock investors may stop overanalyzing when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and by how much, as the stock market's response to rate cuts lacks a consistent pattern [1] - Since 1980, the average returns of the Wilshire 5000 index have been compared across various scenarios of Federal Reserve rate cuts, showing no significant differences at a 95% confidence level [3] - Mark Hulbert's analysis using the CME's FedWatch tool indicates a statistically significant correlation between the probability of higher interest rates and the performance of the S&P 500 index, suggesting that higher rate expectations may reflect a strong U.S. economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England would benefit significantly from finding a way to communicate its future interest rate expectations effectively [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy Communication** - The MPC is exploring methods to enhance its communication regarding future interest rate expectations, which could lead to improved market understanding and stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member, Isabel Schnabel, expressed that there is no unease regarding market interest rate expectations [1] Group 1 - The ECB remains confident in its monetary policy stance despite market fluctuations [1] - Schnabel emphasized that the current interest rate expectations are aligned with the ECB's inflation targets [1] - The central bank is closely monitoring economic indicators to ensure that its policies remain effective [1]

贵金属日报 2025-06-20 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 贵金属 沪金跌 0.11 %，报 784.06 元/克，沪银跌 1.11 %，报 8814.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.08 %， 报 3384.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.04 %，报 36.38 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.38%，美元指数报 98.67 ； 下半年美债将存在较大的发行压力，若政策利率维持在高位，则美债利息的支出压力则会显著 上升，这也是特朗普多次对鲍威尔所领导的美联储货币政策表示不满的原因，当前美国劳动力 市场数据未明显转弱，且通胀仍存在上行风险，需继续关注鲍威尔后续表态转向的节点，贵金 属策略上建议暂时观望，沪金主力合约参考运行区间 768-836 元/克，沪银主力合约参考运行 区间 8659-9300 元/千克。 市场展望： | | 单位 | 收盘价 | 前交易日 | 日度变化 | 环比 | | 单位 | 收盘价 | 前交易日 | 日度变化 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Russell Investments suggests that the Federal Reserve may maintain current interest rates throughout the summer, with potential rate cuts of one to two times by the end of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the U.S. recession outlook, citing that the impact of tariffs is lower than expected and the financial environment has returned to pre-tariff levels [2] - The current inflation data in the U.S. indicates that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices may be less significant than anticipated, although future CPI increases are expected due to tariff effects [2] Group 2: Global Economic and Market Trends - Analysts from Deutsche Bank note that the market's inflation and interest rate expectations in Japan are rising, putting pressure on the long-term bond market [1] - The performance of German and U.S. government bonds is influenced by inflation concerns and safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [2] - The decline in new home sales in Singapore is attributed to a lack of new launches, reflecting uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook due to global trade challenges [3] Group 3: Currency and Oil Market Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar is primarily driven by a rebound in oil prices rather than traditional safe-haven dynamics [4] - The U.S. has become one of the largest oil producers globally, which means that rising oil prices not only benefit oil-producing countries but also support the dollar through improved trade conditions [4] - Investors are advised to focus on global oil price changes and their impact on U.S. trade conditions for a more accurate prediction of the dollar's performance in international markets [5]

Group 1 - The market sentiment is cautious ahead of the important US inflation data, with traders delaying large-scale positions for more guidance [2] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will directly influence the Federal Reserve's future policy path, impacting the US dollar and gold prices [2] - Gold's performance is highly dependent on interest rate expectations and dollar fluctuations, with safe-haven demand providing solid support for gold prices [2] Group 2 - Technically, gold remains in a bullish short-term trend, rebounding from the vicinity of the 200-period simple moving average [3] - A breakout above the $3350 resistance zone would confirm further upward momentum, targeting the $3380 area and potentially reaching the $3400 round number [3] - Conversely, if gold falls below the $3320 short-term support, a bearish pattern may establish, with potential declines to the $3245 monthly low or even down to the $3200 area for new support [3]