Global Monetary Policy Shift Tracking - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% in September 2025, aligning with market expectations. Seven out of 26 major economies tracked have cut rates, with the European Central Bank (ECB) maintaining a hawkish stance despite not changing rates for the third consecutive time [2][11] - There is uncertainty regarding further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year. Initially, there was a strong expectation for cuts in October and December, but this has since cooled, with only a 70% probability for a December cut as of late October [3][17] - China's real interest rate has slightly decreased from 3% at the end of September to 2.9% in October 2025, remaining relatively high compared to 13 other economies [3][26] Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's reserve balance has decreased to $2.83 trillion, with a nominal GDP ratio of approximately 12%, indicating that redundant liquidity is nearly exhausted. The ONRRP balance has significantly shrunk to $19.5 billion [4][30] - Various liquidity spreads have shown significant increases, with the EFFR-IOER spread narrowing from -7 basis points to a minimum of -3 basis points, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions [5][37] - The U.S. Treasury bond bid-ask spread has remained stable, indicating that the bond market has not experienced significant widening despite the liquidity tightening from the Fed's balance sheet reduction [7][43] Financial Market Liquidity Tracking - The Libor-OIS spread has risen sharply, reaching a maximum of 110 basis points, indicating tightening liquidity conditions in the U.S. dollar market. However, offshore dollar swap points remain low, suggesting ample liquidity in offshore markets [8][45] - Credit risk premiums in the U.S. have remained low despite recent regional banking credit events, with investment-grade credit default swap (CDS) prices showing only slight increases [8][51]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices, despite strong U.S. employment data, highlights the dominance of safe-haven demand over traditional market logic, which typically sees gold prices pressured by positive economic indicators [1][6][12]. Market Performance - On Wednesday, gold prices increased by 1.2%, reaching $3977.94 per ounce, while December gold futures rose by 0.7% to $3989.80 per ounce [3]. - The entire precious metals sector showed synchronized gains, with silver up 1.9% at $47.98 per ounce, platinum rising 1% to $1550.60 per ounce, and palladium surging 2.2% to $1421.96 per ounce [3]. Employment Data Impact - The ADP report indicated an increase of 42,000 private sector jobs, significantly above the expected 28,000, which typically would suggest a stronger economy and potentially higher interest rates, negatively impacting gold [4][8]. - Despite the positive employment data, gold prices rose due to a shift in market sentiment towards risk aversion, as investors moved funds from the stock market to gold [6][12]. Market Sentiment and Risk Aversion - The decline in U.S. stock prices from recent highs raised concerns about overvaluation, prompting a shift in capital towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold [6][12]. - Analysts noted that the current market environment, characterized by stock volatility and geopolitical uncertainties, has reinforced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [12][14]. Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Following a recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, expectations for further cuts have diminished, with the probability of a December rate cut now at 70%, down from over 90% [8]. - The reduction in rate cut expectations has not deterred gold's price increase, further emphasizing the prevailing safe-haven demand [8][12]. Trade Policy Uncertainty - The U.S. Supreme Court's hearings on the legality of tariffs could impact future trade policies, adding another layer of uncertainty that supports gold prices [9]. Conclusion - The recent performance of gold amidst favorable employment data serves as a reminder for investors to maintain a balanced asset allocation, particularly in volatile market conditions [14].

Global Monetary Policy Trends - In October 2025, among 26 major economies tracked, 7 economies cut interest rates, with the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%[1][8] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its rates for the third consecutive time but signaled a hawkish stance, while the Bank of Japan kept its rates unchanged but expressed a dovish outlook[1][8] - Market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have fluctuated, with a 70% probability of a December cut as of late October, indicating uncertainty about additional cuts within the year[2][20] U.S. Liquidity Tracking - As of October 29, 2025, the Federal Reserve's reserve balance decreased to $2.83 trillion, representing approximately 12% of nominal GDP, indicating that excess liquidity is nearly exhausted[3][9] - The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) balance significantly shrank to $19.5 billion, with usage almost depleted, reflecting tight liquidity conditions[3][9] - The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) to interest on excess reserves (IOER) spread narrowed from -7 basis points to a minimum of -3 basis points, showing tightening liquidity due to balance sheet reduction[4][36] Global Financial Market Liquidity - The bid-ask spread for U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds remained stable between 0.19 and 0.39 basis points, indicating that liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market has not significantly deteriorated despite the Fed's balance sheet reduction[5][44] - Credit risk premiums in the U.S. remained low, with credit default swap (CDS) prices for U.S. corporate bonds showing limited impact from recent regional banking credit events[5][44] - The Libor-OIS spread increased significantly, reaching a peak of 110 basis points, indicating rising liquidity premiums in the market[5][44]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Canadian dollar is under pressure due to weak employment data and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada [1][2] - The Canadian employment numbers for September showed an increase of 60,400, significantly above the expected 5,000 and a recovery from the previous decline of 65,500 [1] - Market expectations suggest a 70% probability of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in the upcoming meeting on October 29, with implied rates indicating a potential decrease of nearly 25 basis points by year-end [1] Group 2 - The USD/CAD exchange rate has shown bullish momentum after consolidating around 1.3900 for nearly two weeks, driven by rising political uncertainty outside the U.S. [2] - The currency pair has broken above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), extending the upward trend that began from the June low of 1.3538 to a six-month high of 1.4032 [2] - A critical level to watch is the 1.4050 mark; if the pair can maintain above this level, it may advance towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.4165, with further potential to challenge the long-term upward trend line around 1.4230 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.4313 [2]

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy Tracking - The Federal Reserve has restarted its rate cut cycle, lowering rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% in September 2025, aligning with market expectations. The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its rates, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has signaled a more hawkish stance by opposing the current rate policy and announcing a reduction in ETF and REIT holdings [2][9][11] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates three times by the end of 2025, with a projected benchmark rate of approximately 3.75% by then. The ECB's rate cut expectations have diminished, with a current forecast suggesting no further cuts this year. The BOJ is anticipated to raise rates once by the end of the year [3][15][16] - In China, nominal interest rates have risen from 1.7% at the end of July to 1.88% by late September 2025, with real interest rates also increasing from 3.1% to 3.3% during the same period, placing China among the higher real interest rates globally [19][21] Group 2: Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction has led to significant liquidity tightening, with a reduction of $357.7 billion in reserves since the start of the tapering process. The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) balance has dropped sharply to $29.2 billion, indicating a near exhaustion of this liquidity tool [4][23] - The SOFR-EFFR spread has turned positive, reflecting a tightening liquidity environment for non-bank institutions. The spread reached a high of 0.18%, indicating that borrowing costs for these institutions have increased significantly [5][31] - U.S. Treasury liquidity has deteriorated, with the bid-ask spread for 10-year Treasuries fluctuating between 0.19 and 0.58 basis points, while credit spreads remain low, suggesting a mixed liquidity environment across different asset classes [6][37][40]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently fluctuating around 0.6520 against the US dollar (USD), with upcoming employment data expected to significantly influence interest rate expectations from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [1] Economic Indicators - Australia's GDP growth rate for the second quarter exceeded expectations, indicating a stronger economic performance [1] - The employment data for August, to be released on September 18, is anticipated to be a critical factor affecting RBA's interest rate decisions [1] Labor Market Insights - The RBA has indicated that the pace of cash rate cuts will largely depend on the labor market conditions [1] - The July labor market report showed robust growth in full-time employment, supporting a gradual rate cut path by the RBA [1] Currency Fluctuation - The AUD/USD exchange rate has remained anchored within a narrow range of 0.6400 to 0.6600 for several months [1]

Core Insights - The report from Monex Europe analysts suggests that if the non-farm payroll data released on Friday exceeds expectations, the US dollar may receive some support [1] - It is anticipated that the August data will indicate a relatively stable labor market, with a higher likelihood of stronger-than-expected data [1] - This situation could shift market focus back to inflation risks, as the August inflation data will be released before the Federal Reserve's September meeting [1] - If the Federal Reserve places greater emphasis on inflation risks, it may not implement interest rate cuts throughout the year, leading to an adjustment in market interest rate expectations and a strengthening of the US dollar [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged after finding support at 3351, breaking last week's high of 3378 and reaching a peak of 3386, before fluctuating between 3380 and 3367 [3] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming US non-farm payroll report, which is expected to significantly impact interest rate expectations [3] - Current support levels are identified at 3365-3364, while resistance is noted at 3383-3386, with trading strategies suggested for both long and short positions [3] Group 2 - The commentary emphasizes the importance of self-discipline and facing one's mistakes as fundamental to success in trading [3] - The analysis covers a comprehensive understanding of the global economic system and highlights the need for investors to grasp key financial fundamentals [3] - The content encourages investors to pay attention to daily market interpretations of commodities such as gold, silver, and oil [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold has become a focal point for investment due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, including expectations of looser monetary policy, a weaker dollar, and potential political risks [1] - In July, India's gold imports reached approximately 37.5 tons, valued at nearly $4 billion, significantly higher than the total import of 170 tons in the first half of the year, indicating strong physical demand driven by seasonal factors [2] - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggest that most officials are focused on inflation, with the possibility of rate cuts occurring later than market expectations, which may lead to a weaker dollar and increased stability for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2: Silver Market Challenges - Silver is facing multiple pressures, including weaker industrial demand expectations and a notable decline in speculative funds, with net long positions dropping by 16,352 contracts, a decrease of 27% since July [3] - Despite attempts to break the $39 per ounce resistance level, silver has struggled to maintain upward momentum, indicating that its short-term performance is constrained by outflows of funds and reduced demand [3] - The divergence between gold and silver trends highlights that while gold remains a strategic asset, silver's volatility risks are heightened due to its reliance on industrial demand and speculative investments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices remained stable as the market awaited signals regarding U.S. interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with a slight increase in copper prices noted [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 21, LME three-month copper rose by $4, or 0.04%, closing at $9,724.50 per ton, after hitting a low of $9,670.50 on August 20, the lowest since August 7 [1][2]. - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $8.50 (0.33%) to $2,585.00, while three-month zinc, lead, tin, and nickel experienced declines [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicated a recovery in U.S. manufacturing, with August business activity accelerating and order growth reaching the strongest level in 18 months, while the Eurozone saw its first manufacturing expansion in over three years [4]. - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month has slightly decreased, providing support for the U.S. dollar, which in turn makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies [4]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Codelco, a major Chilean copper producer, announced a reduction in its 2025 production forecast by 33,000 tons due to an accident at its El Teniente mine, which is expected to impact overall copper supply [4]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global copper market surplus of 251,000 tons for the first half of 2025, down from a surplus of 395,000 tons in the same period last year, with refined copper production increasing to 14.21 million tons from 13.72 million tons year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that increased defense spending in the European Union will significantly boost industrial metal demand, projecting upward price risks for copper in 2026 and 2027, with expected prices of $10,000 and $10,750 per ton, respectively [5].