Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 7, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a total amount of 160.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 122.5 billion yuan for the day [1][3] - On August 8, the central bank plans to conduct a 700 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months to maintain liquidity in the banking system [15] Group 2: Financial Market Conditions - The interbank market liquidity remains stable and slightly loose, with the overnight repo weighted average rate (DR001) slightly decreasing to around 1.31% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.34% [3] Group 3: Trade and Economic Indicators - In the first seven months, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with exports at 15.31 trillion yuan (up 7.3%) and imports at 10.39 trillion yuan (down 1.6%) [15] - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 4.29 trillion yuan, while trade with the U.S. decreased by 11.1% to 2.42 trillion yuan, accounting for 9.4% of China's total foreign trade [15] Group 4: Credit Ratings and Economic Outlook - S&P Global Ratings has maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a stable outlook, reflecting confidence in China's economic resilience and debt management [16] Group 5: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds have shown slight increases, with the 30-year, 10-year, and 5-year contracts rising by 0.03% and 0.05%, respectively, while the 2-year contract remained unchanged [14]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 30 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan into the market [1] - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) fell to 1.3170%, down 4.90 basis points, while the 7-day and 14-day Shibor also saw slight declines [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term funding rates continued to decline, with the R007 transaction volume increasing to 18.2% [5] Group 2 - The macro policy meeting held by the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized the need for sustained and timely macro policy efforts, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [14] - The average interest rate for newly issued commercial personal housing loans in China for the second quarter of 2025 was reported at 3.09% [15] - Jiangsu province reported a significant increase in new loans and social financing scale, leading the country in both metrics [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The capital market in August does not have a basis for tightening. Although the bond market has become desensitized to capital and fundamental information recently, it will eventually return to these two concerns. Currently, the Sino - US tariff negotiations have not released more positive information, and the latest economic data does not support a shift in monetary policy [2][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Judgment of August Capital Market - In July, after the capital interest rate dropped to nearly 1.3% at the beginning of the month, there were two significant increases. On July 25, the central bank immediately made a large - scale net investment of 601.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchase to support the capital market, indicating that the central bank's attitude of supporting the capital market has not changed. The overnight capital interest rate has dropped to 1.36%, and the balance of 7 - day reverse repurchase is significantly higher than the seasonal level, similar to the situation in the second quarter [2][9] 2. Open Market - In August, the maturity of MLF is 300 billion yuan, and the maturity of outright reverse repurchase is 900 billion yuan, totaling 1.2 trillion yuan, less than the 1.5 trillion yuan in July. Since May, the combined caliber of these two tools has been net investment, so there is no need to worry too much. Starting from August, the maturity time and operation time of MLF will change from misaligned to consistent, solving the problem of affecting market expectations for medium - term liquidity [3][14] 3. Government Bond Supply - It is expected that in August 2025, the government bond issuance will be 2.17 - 2.39 trillion yuan, and the net financing will be 1.17 - 1.39 trillion yuan, close to the 1.25 trillion yuan in July. From January to July 2025, a total of 9.02 trillion yuan of the annual quota has been used, accounting for 65% of the annual 13.86 trillion yuan, with the local bond issuance progress slightly faster than that of national bonds. There are new policy tools to be launched, and they are expected to be implemented in the third quarter [4][17][18] 4. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - Recently, the increase in market risk appetite has not only pressured the bond market but also disturbed the inter - bank capital market. The 1 - year CD interest rate started to rise slightly after reaching around 1.6% at the beginning of July. The maturity scale of CDs in August will rise slightly to 3.07 trillion yuan, increasing the pressure on renewal. Before the policy interest rate is further lowered, the 1 - year CD interest rate is likely to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and there is a certain allocation value at 1.65% and above. Unless the central bank tightens liquidity investment, the probability of a significant price increase for issuance is not high, and the CD interest rate in August will mainly fluctuate seasonally [5][25]

Report Title - Fund Selling, Rural Commercial Banks Buying - Tracking of Liquidity and Institutional Behavior [1] Report Date - July 28, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week (July 21 - July 25), the money market rates generally increased, the average daily net lending of large banks increased, and funds reduced leverage. The maturity of certificates of deposit increased, and the yields of certificates of deposit at all tenors decreased. In the cash bond market, rural commercial banks were the main buyers, mainly increasing their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds; funds were the main sellers, mainly reducing their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds; insurance companies increased their holdings of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and large banks bought 1 - 3Y interest - rate bonds [3] Summary by Directory 1. Money and Funding Situation - **Open Market Operations**: A total of 1726.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations of 170.7 billion, 214.8 billion, 150.5 billion, 331 billion, and 789.3 billion yuan from Monday to Friday, respectively, with a total investment of 1656.3 billion yuan. On Friday, 200 billion yuan of MLF matured and 400 billion yuan was invested, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 129.5 billion yuan for the whole week [7][10] - **Funding Rates**: As of July 25, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.55%, 1.69%, 1.52%, and 1.65% respectively, with changes of 6.41BP, 18.65BP, 6.08BP, and 14.56BP compared to July 18, and were at the 24%, 13%, 22%, and 9% historical percentiles respectively [7][13] - **Net Funding Flows of Main Institutions**: The net borrowing of the main funding providers (large commercial/policy banks and joint - stock banks) was 448.6 billion yuan for the whole week, an increase of 61.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net borrowing of fund companies and securities companies was - 270.5 billion and - 162.7 billion yuan respectively, with the net borrowing of fund companies decreasing by 309.6 billion yuan and that of securities companies decreasing by 155.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [7][17] - **Repo Market**: The trading volume of pledged repurchase increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.7 trillion yuan and a maximum single - day trading volume of 8.04 trillion yuan, a 6.27% increase compared to the previous week's average. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions decreased, with an average daily proportion of 88.5% and a maximum single - day proportion of 90.3%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous week's average [7] - **Leverage Ratio**: As of July 25, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.3%, 186.5%, 127.4%, and 104.9% respectively, with changes of - 0.12BP, - 15.49BP, 1.12BP, and - 0.53BP compared to July 18, and were at the 16%, 0%, 62%, and 23% historical percentiles respectively [7][26] 2. Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **Issuance and Financing of Certificates of Deposit**: The issuance scale of certificates of deposit decreased this week, with a total issuance of 515.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 429.19 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was - 560.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 702.86 billion yuan compared to the previous week [7][30] - **Maturity of Certificates of Deposit**: The maturity volume of certificates of deposit increased this week, with a total maturity of 1076.48 billion yuan, an increase of 273.67 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week (July 28 - August 1), 376.74 billion yuan of certificates of deposit will mature [7][30][36] - **Interest Rates of Certificates of Deposit**: The issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit of all banks and at all tenors increased. As of July 25, the one - year issuance interest rates of joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks increased by 4.17BP, 1BP, 0.17BP, and 1BP respectively compared to July 18. The issuance interest rates of 1M, 3M, and 6M certificates of deposit increased by 0.59BP, 2.15BP, and 4.86BP respectively compared to July 18 [39] - **Shibor Rates**: The Shibor rates increased this week. As of July 25, the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1M, and 3M Shibor rates increased by 5.8BP, 12.6BP, 16.8BP, 0.9BP, and 0.4BP respectively compared to July 18 [42] - **Yields of Certificates of Deposit at Maturity**: The yields of certificates of deposit at maturity generally increased. As of July 25, the 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y yields of AAA - rated ChinaBond commercial bank certificates of deposit increased by 4.01BP, 4.69BP, 6.16BP, 5.06BP, and 5.75BP respectively compared to July 18 [44] - **Bill Interest Rates**: The bill interest rates decreased. As of July 25, the 3M direct discount rate, 3M transfer discount rate, 6M direct discount rate, and 6M transfer discount rate of national - owned shares decreased by 5BP, 13BP, 8BP, and 9BP respectively compared to July 18 [7][47] 3. Tracking of Institutional Behavior - **Cash Bond Trading**: Rural commercial banks were the main buyers in the cash bond market this week, with a net purchase of 261.7 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week. Funds were the main sellers, with a net sale of 358.7 billion yuan, also an increase compared to the previous week. Wealth management products had a net purchase of 107.6 billion yuan [7][49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Funds**: Funds reduced their holdings of cash bonds by 358.7 billion yuan, including a reduction of 236.1 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 22.6 billion yuan in credit bonds, 61.2 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and 39.1 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly reduced their holdings of 7 - 10 - year interest - rate bonds and 1 - 5 - year credit bonds [7][49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Wealth Management Products**: Wealth management products increased their holdings of cash bonds by 107.6 billion yuan, including an increase of 26.6 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 15.3 billion yuan in credit bonds, 15.3 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and 50.5 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds with a tenor of less than 1 year [49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Rural Financial Institutions**: Rural financial institutions increased their holdings of cash bonds by 261.7 billion yuan, including an increase of 271.1 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 4.5 billion yuan in credit bonds, 36.6 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and a reduction of 50.8 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly increased their holdings of 7 - 10 - year interest - rate bonds and 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Insurance Companies**: Insurance companies increased their holdings of cash bonds by 115.9 billion yuan, including an increase of 66.3 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 12.6 billion yuan in credit bonds, 8 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and 29.1 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly increased their holdings of 20 - 30 - year interest - rate bonds and 7 - 10 - year credit bonds [50]

Core Viewpoint - The industry of interbank certificate of deposit index funds is facing a dual challenge of declining net value and shrinking scale, with average returns significantly lagging behind other low-risk investment products [3][4][5]. Performance Summary - As of July 25, 2023, the average return of 91 interbank certificate of deposit index funds was 0.64%, underperforming compared to traditional money market funds (0.78%) and short-term pure bond funds (0.80%) [3][5]. - The total scale of these funds has decreased from 348.32 billion yuan at inception to 125.17 billion yuan, a decline of 64.06% [3][10]. - The largest fund, Huatai Baichuan Interbank Certificate of Deposit Index, holds approximately 9.39 billion yuan, while the smallest fund has shrunk to about 210 thousand yuan [3]. Reasons for Underperformance - The poor performance of interbank certificate of deposit index funds is attributed to the downward trend in deposit rates, which compresses coupon income and limits the potential for yield enhancement due to a passive management approach [4][5]. - The liquidity constraints imposed by a 7-day holding period further diminish the attractiveness of these funds to investors [4]. Scale Reduction - By the end of Q2 2023, 49.45% of the funds had a scale of less than 200 million yuan, and 26.37% were classified as "mini funds" with less than 50 million yuan [10]. - Only 7 funds experienced growth in scale, indicating that 92.31% of interbank certificate of deposit index funds have seen a reduction in size since their inception [10]. Notable Fund Performances - The only fund to report a loss this year was Dacheng Interbank Certificate of Deposit Index, with a return of -0.11% [7]. - The top-performing fund, Shangzheng Interbank Certificate of Deposit Index, achieved a return of 2.27% as of July 25, 2023 [9]. Investor Composition - The majority of investors in these funds are individual investors, with many funds experiencing significant redemptions as marketing interest waned and returns diminished [15].

Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 331 billion yuan at a fixed rate with an interest rate of 1.40%, with a total bid amount of 331 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 331 billion yuan. On the same day, 450 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market's funding conditions have tightened further, with a decrease in funding supply. The overnight repurchase weighted rate (DR001) rose nearly 28 basis points, surpassing the 1.65% mark. In the overseas market, the latest overnight financing rate in the US is 4.28% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64% [6] Bond Market - The yields on medium to long-term bonds in the interbank market increased by approximately 3 basis points, while government bond futures saw a significant decline, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.92% [8][10] Government Bond Futures - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.92%, the 10-year main contract down 0.29%, the 5-year main contract down 0.21%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.07% [10] Policy Announcements - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation released a draft for public consultation on the amendment to the Price Law, aiming to clarify standards for unfair pricing behaviors, including low-price dumping and price collusion [11] - The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued opinions to enhance financial services for rural reforms, emphasizing increased financial resource input in key areas of rural revitalization and innovative financing models [11] - Beijing's Development and Reform Commission reported that all 320 major projects in the city commenced in the first half of the year, with investment growth of 14.1%, outpacing the national growth rate of 11.3% [12] Global Macro - The Reserve Bank of Australia's chairman expects core inflation to gradually decline to 2.5%, while the global economy faces uncertainty. Monthly data suggests that core CPI may not meet expectations, prompting a cautious and gradual easing path [14] Bond Market Events - In June, the northbound trading of Bond Connect reached 852.8 billion yuan, and in the first half of the year, securities firms underwrote technology innovation bonds totaling 381.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.48% [16]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 170.7 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan due to 226.2 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for overnight and 7-day tenors decreased, while the 14-day tenor saw a slight increase. Specifically, the overnight Shibor fell by 9.60 basis points to 1.3660%, and the 7-day Shibor decreased by 1.70 basis points to 1.4770% [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, various rates continued to decline, with the 7-day rate dropping below 5%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 9.6 basis points and 8.7 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes increasing significantly [6] Group 2 - The funding environment on July 21 was characterized by a loose liquidity situation, with overnight and 7-day transactions settling around 1.48% and 1.47%, respectively. The lowest overnight rate reached 1.35% by the end of the trading day [11] - A total of 95 interbank certificates of deposit were issued on July 21, with an actual issuance volume of 187.56 billion yuan [12] - The loan market quoted interest rates (LPR) were reported at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year and above, remaining effective until the next announcement [14]

Group 1: Market Overview - During the tax period from July 14-18, liquidity tightened significantly, with overnight rates jumping approximately 10 basis points on the first day of the tax period, reaching 1.57% and 1.53% for R001 and DR001 respectively[1] - The central bank increased reverse repo operations, with daily net injections exceeding 300 billion, leading to a gradual recovery in market sentiment and a return of overnight rates below 1.5%[1] - By July 18, overnight rates settled at 1.49% and 1.46% for R001 and DR001, while 7-day rates approached 1.50%[1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The central bank's supportive stance suggests that liquidity is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations, with overnight rates expected to return to around 1.4% and 7-day rates fluctuating around 1.50%[2] - A total of over 20 trillion yuan in public market maturities is expected next week, including 17,268 billion yuan in reverse repos and 2,000 billion yuan in MLF maturities[2] - The upcoming week will see a significant amount of certificates of deposit maturing, with a total of 10,699 billion yuan, but the impact on liquidity is expected to be limited due to manageable bank liabilities[2] Group 3: Public Market and Government Bonds - From July 14-18, the central bank's net injection in the public market was 12,011 billion yuan, with reverse repos contributing 13,011 billion yuan[3] - Government bond net payments are projected to decrease to 2,399 billion yuan for the week of July 21-25, with a notable increase in local government bond payments[5] - The issuance of government bonds is set to rise significantly, with planned issuance of 7,508 billion yuan, including 3,750 billion yuan in national bonds and 3,758 billion yuan in local bonds[5] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.62%, reflecting a 1 basis point increase from the previous week[6] - The pressure from maturing certificates of deposit is expected to rise, with 10,699 billion yuan maturing in the week of July 21-25, marking a relative high for the year[6] - The overall market for certificates of deposit is showing signs of tightening, with a decrease in the proportion of longer-term issuances[6]

Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 450.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate [1] - With 90 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing on the same day, the net injection into the market was 360.5 billion yuan [1] Interbank Offered Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) remained stable, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 0.30 basis points to 1.4630%, while the 7-day Shibor remained unchanged at 1.5040% [1][2] - The 14-day Shibor decreased by 0.60 basis points to 1.5530% [2] Short-term Funding Rates - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term funding rates showed minimal fluctuations, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates decreasing by 0.5 basis points and 0.1 basis points, respectively [5] - The transaction volume for DR001 increased by 207.3 billion yuan, while R001's transaction volume rose by 194.9 billion yuan [5] Market Sentiment - Overall, the funding environment was balanced and slightly loose, with overnight pledged repo transactions occurring at rates around 1.55-1.58% [13] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was active, with 43 certificates issued on July 17, totaling 51.32 billion yuan [13][14]

Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 900 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate unchanged at 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 328 billion yuan after 572 billion yuan matured on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed slight fluctuations, with overnight Shibor rising by 0.30 basis points to 1.3160%, and 7-day Shibor increasing by 1.00 basis points to 1.4740% [1] Interbank Repo Market - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term funding rates increased slightly, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates rising by 0.6 basis points and 1.1 basis points to 1.3227% and 1.387% respectively, while transaction volumes decreased by 637 billion yuan and 428 billion yuan [4] - DR007 and R007 weighted average rates increased by 1.8 basis points and 1.7 basis points to 1.4945% and 1.5208%, with transaction volumes decreasing by 59 billion yuan and 361 billion yuan [4] Funding Conditions - Early morning funding conditions were balanced but slightly tight, gradually easing after the open market operations, with overnight repo rates trading around 1.48%-1.50% [10] - By the afternoon, funding conditions shifted to a balanced to slightly loose state, with overnight repo rates dropping to a minimum of 1.40% [10] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - On July 10, there were 47 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with a total issuance amount of 238.9 billion yuan, indicating active trading sentiment [11] - The secondary market saw prices entering an upward channel, with the one-year government bond yield surpassing 1.62% to around 1.625% [11]