金十期货正在直播 相关链接 现货黄金破3380续创历史新高，宏观不确定性高企，期市分化如何看准方向？今日15:00，期货资深研 究员Leo将解读热门期货品种的市场行情，洞察品种基本面以及大宗商品的未来走势。立即进入直播 间。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues increased by 16% year-over-year, while expenses remained flat [6][24] - Pre-provision net revenue rose by over $90 million from the previous quarter [6] - Earnings per share for the first quarter were reported at 33 cents [24] - Tax-equivalent net interest income was $1.1 billion, up 4% sequentially and 25% year-over-year [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commercial loans increased by $1.5 billion, or 3%, while consumer loans were intentionally reduced [27] - Investment banking fees reached a record of $175 million for the first quarter, up 3% from the previous year [35] - Non-interest income was $668 million, reflecting a 3% year-over-year increase [32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Deposits grew by mid-single digits year-over-year, with non-interest-bearing deposits stable at about 19% of total deposits [18][29] - Average loans were up about half a billion dollars to $105 billion on a period-end basis [26] - Interest-bearing deposit costs decreased by 18 basis points during the quarter [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on navigating macroeconomic uncertainties while maintaining strong client relationships and community investments [9][12] - A strategic minority investment from Scotiabank has positioned the company for future growth and agility [13] - The company aims to leverage its balance sheet to support clients during market dislocations [14][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in avoiding a recession despite current uncertainties, citing strong credit quality and client backlogs [52][62] - The company is prepared for various economic scenarios, including stagflation [53] - Future performance may be impacted by macroeconomic conditions, but management remains optimistic about achieving financial commitments for 2025 [41][42] Other Important Information - The CET1 ratio was reported at 11.8%, indicating a strong capital position [40] - A $1 billion share repurchase authorization was announced, expected to commence in the second half of the year [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: How to reconcile the uncertain macro environment with the unchanged guidance? - Management acknowledged the uncertainty but emphasized the strength of the credit book and client backlogs, indicating a cautious optimism [52][53] Question: What is the outlook for C&I loan growth? - Management noted strong C&I loan growth driven by new teams and project-based deals, with expectations for continued growth [76][77] Question: What are the drivers for achieving the 20% net interest income growth? - Management highlighted the impact of previous restructuring actions and robust pipelines, while acknowledging potential risks from economic conditions [80][82] Question: How will the company handle potential CapEx project delays? - Existing projects are expected to continue, but new projects may be delayed until there is more clarity in the market [95] Question: What is the strategy for the share buyback program? - The company plans to maintain flexibility regarding the timing and pace of buybacks, depending on economic clarity [101][102]

Core Viewpoint - RH's shares declined significantly following the announcement of disappointing fourth-quarter results and 2025 guidance, although there are medium-term positive indicators according to analysts [1][4]. Group 1: Quarterly Earnings and Guidance - The fourth-quarter results missed expectations, which was unexpected given the strong demand in the previous quarter [2]. - Revenue growth guidance for 2025 is projected at 10%-13%, below the consensus estimate of 14.2% [3]. - Operating margin guidance is set at 14%-15%, aligning with expectations and in line with financial services estimates of 14.8% [3]. Group 2: Demand and Market Position - Demand slowed in the second half of December but stabilized in January with a 19% increase [3]. - RH's demand growth is outperforming peers, driven by product newness and increased catalog circulation [4]. - The company has the potential to manage tariffs better due to its higher price points, which provide more pricing power [4]. Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Price Action - Analyst Cristina Fernández maintained an Outperform rating but reduced the price target from $420 to $280 [1]. - At the time of publication, RH's shares had fallen by 41.8% to $145.29 [4].

主要观点 • 宏观：全球降息节奏及经济增长变化继续影响市场走势，海外经济增长放缓压力存在，而美国因加关税政策实施， 再通胀压力回升，对经济的负面影响也可能出现。而国内积极财政和适度宽松货币宽松及国内消费刺激之下预期有 一定回升空间，但贸易摩擦不确定性带来全球经济增长降速风险继续存在。地缘形势复杂变化，增强了宏观不确定 性。 • 供应端：锌精矿供给偏紧情况改善，月度加工费出现显著回升。冶炼企业亏损收窄，盈利有继续改善空间，不过锌 定供应仍需要时间改善，流通紧张与预期宽松情况并存。 • 需求端：从锌下游三大需求来看，2025年地产端企稳修复对需求修复料有一定正面企稳作用，以镀锌端为代表的 需求端均会有一定回升可能。但是贸易摩擦料对材料及终端出口带来较多不确定性，需求端扰动因素增加。2025 年初，季节性因素有所显现，春节前开工转淡，春节后逐渐恢复，但开工带来的需求修复程度较为有限，且原料库 存回升也显示，需求增长不及预期。 • 展望：2025年3月，宏观不确定性将继续对有色带来较强扰动，而供需矛盾由供需偏紧向供需过剩转向将进一步延 续，沪锌料转向宽幅波动重心下移，市场运行区间预计主要会在22500-24500元/ ...