Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is currently in an accelerating upward phase. However, from January next year to May when Powell officially steps down as the Fed Chairman, precious metals may face short - term significant corrections due to the Fed's "inaction," but this does not mean the end of the current upward cycle of gold and silver prices. The Trump administration has the motivation to implement broader fiscal policies under the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the Fed will enter a new round of more aggressive interest - rate cuts after Powell's departure. The peak of gold and silver prices is expected to occur when the new Fed Chairman hints at the end of interest - rate cuts. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in gold and silver when the hourly technical pattern weakens, and not to open new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 16752 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Market Quotes and Influencing Factors - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold rose 0.17% to 1018.10 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 6.03% to 19204.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold was reported at 4562.00 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 79.68 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the US dollar index was 98.04 [2]. - **Influencing Factors on Gold**: The expectation of the US's broader fiscal policy has further strengthened, driving the steady rise of gold prices. Facing the 2026 mid - term elections and low approval ratings, Trump is likely to adopt more aggressive expansionary fiscal policies, which will expand the US fiscal deficit and increase the long - term supply of US Treasuries. Gold's characteristic as a "substitute for credit currency" is more prominent compared to before Trump took office [2]. - **Influencing Factors on Silver**: The market is pricing in the Fed's aggressive easing next year due to the selection of the new Fed Chairman. Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, two members of the Trump camp, are likely to be nominated as candidates for the new Fed Chairman, and they support Trump's interest - rate cut policy. The expectation of the Fed's more aggressive interest - rate cuts in the second half of next year has driven international silver prices to reach new historical highs [3]. 2. Strategy Suggestions - It is recommended to take profit on long positions in gold and silver when the hourly technical pattern weakens, and not to open new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 16752 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Data Summary - **Gold Data**: The closing price, trading volume, and open interest of COMEX gold, LBMA gold, SHFE gold, and AuT + D all showed different degrees of changes. For example, the closing price of COMEX gold's active contract rose 1.26% to 4562.00 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume increased 19.47% to 17.91 million lots [7]. - **Silver Data**: The closing price, trading volume, and open interest of COMEX silver, LBMA silver, SHFE silver, and AgT + D also changed. For instance, the closing price of COMEX silver's active contract rose 10.85% to 79.68 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume of AgT + D increased 106.00% to 1034.37 tons [7]. 4. Price and Market Structure Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including the relationship between the price of COMEX gold and the US dollar index, real interest rate, trading volume, and open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and Shanghai gold; the relationship between the price of COMEX silver and trading volume, open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX silver and Shanghai silver; and the total open interest of gold and silver ETFs, as well as the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX gold and silver and their prices [9][12][17][22][23][27][29][31][39][42][46]. 5. Internal - External Price Difference Statistics - **Gold Internal - External Price Difference**: On December 25, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference of gold was - 10.01 yuan/gram (- 44.44 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 0.38 yuan/gram (- 1.70 dollars/ounce) [53]. - **Silver Internal - External Price Difference**: On December 26, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference of silver was 544.74 yuan/kilogram (2.42 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 604.90 yuan/kilogram (2.69 dollars/ounce) [53][61].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by various factors, including monetary policy signals and external uncertainties, while the 30-year government bond ETF shows potential for investment due to its liquidity and low-risk profile [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 26, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) increased by 0.27%, with an intraday turnover of 5.21% and a transaction volume of 1.391 billion yuan [1]. - The average daily transaction volume for the 30-year government bond ETF over the past year reached 8.377 billion yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF is 26.693 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Bond Market Trends - On December 25, the Chinese interbank bond market continued to experience narrow fluctuations, with all main government bond futures contracts closing lower [1]. - The 30-year main contract fell by 0.24% to 112.510 yuan, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts also saw slight declines [1]. - Factors such as signals from the Central Political Bureau meeting, unchanged LPR, and rising uncertainties in global trade are contributing to the overall bond market's performance [1]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - The Central Economic Work Conference has indicated a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, suggesting a high probability of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the coming year [2]. - The government is expected to maintain a coordinated approach of "loose monetary" and "loose fiscal" policies, which is necessary to support government debt expansion in a low-interest environment [2]. - Bond ETFs are highlighted for their low-risk and liquidity advantages, making them essential for conservative investors' asset allocation [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations. The market turned to trade the "broad fiscal - supply surge" logic after the central bank's media mentioned the issuance expectations of larger - scale special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. Global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.70%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of 0.10% and a year - on - year change of - 2.20% [9] - Social financing scale is 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.54%. M2 year - on - year is 8.00%, with a decrease of 0.20% and a decline rate of 2.44%. Manufacturing PMI is 49.20%, with an increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.41% [10] - The US dollar index is 98.44, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 0.04%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0361, with a decrease of 0.003 and a decline rate of 0.04%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with no change and a decline rate of 0.14%. DR007 is 1.44, with no change and a decline rate of 0.21%. R007 is 1.51, with no change and a decline rate of 0.31%. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) 3M is 1.61, with a decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.00%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with no change and a decline rate of 1.00% [10] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On December 18, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.44 yuan, 105.85 yuan, 108.01 yuan, and 112.25 yuan respectively, with daily price changes of 0.01%, 0.02%, 0.00%, and 0.23% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are - 0.028 yuan, - 0.059 yuan, 0.000 yuan, and - 0.469 yuan respectively [3] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year. In November, the overall financial data was weak, and the growth rate of social financing remained at 8.5%. The central bank conducted 883 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% and 100 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 18, 2025. The main term repurchase rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.273%, 1.426%, 1.582%, and 1.550% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2] 4. Spread Overview - The report mentions various spread indicators such as the cross - period spread trend of treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - variety spread of futures, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [31] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows relevant charts of the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [38] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows relevant charts of the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [52] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows relevant charts of the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [59] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows relevant charts of the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [66] Strategies - Unilateral: The repurchase rate declines, and the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4] - Hedging: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. The market is influenced by factors such as macro - policies, inflation, fiscal and financial conditions, and global trade uncertainties. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.70%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of 0.10% and a year - on - year change of - 2.20% [9]. - Social financing scale is 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.54%; M2 year - on - year is 8.00%, down 0.20% with a decline rate of 2.44%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.20%, up 0.20% with a growth rate of 0.41% [10]. - The US dollar index is 98.40, up 0.19 with a growth rate of 0.19%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0390, up 0.001 with a growth rate of 0.02%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, unchanged with a decline rate of 0.07%; DR007 is 1.44, down 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.45%; R007 is 1.51, unchanged with a decline rate of 0.31%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.63, unchanged with a growth rate of 0.00%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, unchanged with a growth rate of 0.00% [10]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On December 17, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.43 yuan, 105.84 yuan, 108.01 yuan, and 112.14 yuan respectively. The price changes are 0.01%, 0.06%, 0.10%, and 0.63% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.084 yuan, - 0.076 yuan, - 0.053 yuan, and - 0.228 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year [2]. - In November, the overall financial data was weak. The credit was still supported by bills and short - term loans. The medium - and long - term financing needs of residents and enterprises continued to decline, and the loans increased significantly less year - on - year. The social financing growth rate remained at 8.5%, mainly hedged by corporate bonds and off - balance - sheet financing [2]. - On December 17, 2025, the central bank conducted a 46.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.275%, 1.428%, 1.471%, and 1.541% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview No specific data summary provided in the text, only mentions various spread trend charts such as the inter - period spread trend of treasury bond futures and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [37][38][45]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [49][53]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][58]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [63][69]. Strategies - Unilateral: The repurchase rate has declined, and the treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks experienced an afternoon rally, driven by the recent Federal Reserve interest rate decision and expectations of continued monetary easing, which is expected to support gold prices in the long term [1] Group 1: Gold Stock Performance - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) rose by 3.83%, trading at HKD 31.46 [1] - Shandong Gold Mining (01787) increased by 3.48%, trading at HKD 3.49 [1] - Lingbao Gold Company (03330) saw a rise of 2.9%, trading at HKD 18.08 [1] - Zijin Mining Group (02899) gained 2.73%, trading at HKD 33.94 [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's December meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, but there was significant internal disagreement regarding future rate cuts, with three dissenting votes [1] - Fed Governor Milan advocated for a 50 basis point cut, while two regional Fed presidents opposed any rate cut [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Predictions - Morgan Stanley's latest report predicts that rate cuts will continue, leading to a weakening of the US dollar [1] - The report forecasts that gold prices could reach USD 4,800 per ounce by Q4 2026 due to macroeconomic support [1] - Huaan Fund anticipates that the Fed will remain in a long-term easing cycle, which could further benefit gold if a dovish chair is selected [1] - The combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies, along with ongoing global central bank purchases of gold to diversify foreign exchange reserves, supports the long-term investment value of gold [1]

宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税收入拖累整体增速，收入完成进度略低于往年均值；一般公共预算支出同比仅增 2%，连续三个月放缓，主 要受上半年财政前置发力后劲不足以及基建类支出走弱影响，社 ...

Macro Overview - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [4][56] - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for next year's economic policy, focusing on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels while addressing local fiscal difficulties [4][5] - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the third time this year to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, with Chairman Powell stating that there is no preset path for monetary policy [9][10][56] Equity Market Insights - The December Federal Reserve meeting confirmed the expected rate cut, with a dovish overall stance and unchanged expectations for two more rate cuts in the future [2][57] - The market is expected to focus on the upcoming U.S. fiscal measures and the technical expansion of the balance sheet starting December 12, indicating potential re-inflation in the economy [2][57] - Domestic exports remain strong, and overall economic conditions are positive, with a recommendation to maintain a neutral position in equity strategies [2][57] Industry Strategies - The current trading logic is driven by structural demand led by external factors, with opportunities in overseas computing stocks and beta opportunities in non-ferrous metals [2][57] - The strategy suggests a "barbell" approach, focusing on sectors such as communications, non-ferrous metals, defense, machinery, and electronics, while being cautious in sectors like food and beverage, real estate, pharmaceuticals, construction, and computing [2][57] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced a rapid rise due to favorable policy expectations, but confidence in the market remains unstable, leading to a significant pullback [3] - The yield on 30-year, 10-year, and 1-year government bonds changed by -1 basis point, closing at 2.25%, 1.84%, and 1.39% respectively [3] - The overall bond market is expected to remain under pressure as the equity market sentiment approaches a bottom, with potential for a pulse in equity market sentiment following the Central Economic Work Conference [3][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25bp and its dovish stance have improved short - term global liquidity expectations, but the market has not formed an upward force. The Central Economic Working Conference in China has set the tone for a loose fiscal and monetary policy in 2026, which stabilizes confidence. Different futures varieties show various trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Selected Views - For SN2601, the market is expected to be strong; for V2601, there is still an expectation of over - supply, and the price continues to seek the bottom; for rb2505, the market is expected to be weakly volatile; for O1605, the market is expected to be strongly volatile [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial - **Stock Index**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut and the Central Economic Working Conference in China, the A - share market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The market trading sentiment is not high, and it is necessary to be cautious about the risk of chasing high in the volatile range. It is advisable to appropriately lay out a bull spread at low prices. The expectation of a loose monetary policy at the end of the year may rise again, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may decline towards 1.75%, with a downward space of about 6BP. In terms of strategies, one can participate in going long on the T contract on dips and try to go long on the TL contract with a light position. Also, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: After the Central Economic Working Conference, the expectation of a loose monetary policy has risen. In the short - term, the expectation of a loose monetary policy in the market may improve. One can participate in going long on the T contract on dips and try to go long on the TL contract with a light position. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [3] - **Precious Metals**: The short - term gold price is approaching the previous high, and it is mainly recommended to buy on dips. The silver market may enter the over - bought range, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high and reduce long positions in a timely manner. The platinum - palladium market follows the fluctuations of gold and silver, and it is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract fluctuates upward, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Metals - **Steel**: Negative feedback affects the steel price to be weak. Pay attention to the decline opportunity of the January rebar - iron ore ratio. For the hot - rolled coil, close the January hot - rolled coil - rebar spread position [3] - **Iron Ore**: With the decline of hot - metal production and the increase of port inventory, the iron ore market turns weakly volatile, and it is viewed as bearish in the range of 730 - 780 [3] - **Coking Coal**: The price - cut range of local coal prices expands, and the Mongolian coal price drops. The futures price shows a weak decline, and it is viewed as bearish in the range of 950 - 1100. One can go long on coke and short on coking coal [3] - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts for coke in December has started, and the port trading price has led the decline. It is viewed as bearish in the range of 1450 - 1600. One can go long on coke and short on coking coal [3] - **Copper**: The Fed cuts interest rates by 25bp. Pay attention to the structural risk of overseas inventory. Hold long positions in the long - term, and the main contract should pay attention to the support at 90000 - 91000 [3] - **Alumina**: Market pessimism spreads, and there is no obvious marginal change in the short - term fundamentals. The main contract operates in the range of 2400 - 2700. Short - term traders can lay out long positions on dips to bet on an emotional rebound [3] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory continues to decline weekly, and the macro - fundamentals resonate, making the market run strongly. The main contract operates in the range of 21700 - 22400. Buy on dips [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price rebounds slightly following the aluminum price, and the aluminum - alloy - aluminum price spread expands to 1000. The main contract operates in the range of 20700 - 21400. Conduct an arbitrage of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [3] - **Zinc**: The US dollar is weakly running. Inventory depletion and the decline of TC boost the zinc price. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 23000 - 23200. Continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] - **Tin**: The fundamentals are strong, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. Pay attention to the US interest - rate decision. Hold the previous long positions, and adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [3] - **Nickel**: After the macro - factors are settled, the upward space of the price is limited, and the market continues to decline. The main contract operates in the range of 116000 - 120000 [3] - **Stainless Steel**: The market fluctuates and declines slightly. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory depletion is insufficient. The main contract operates in the range of 12400 - 12800 [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The coking coal futures price continues to decline, and the industrial silicon price fluctuates. The main contract operates in the range of 8000 - 8800 [3] New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The inventory increases slightly, and the polysilicon futures price continues to rise. It fluctuates at a high level, and the main contract operates in the range of 50000 - 60000 [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by news and strong capital, the market rise expands. It fluctuates strongly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is tight, and the PX price has support at a low level. Treat it as a short - term high - level fluctuation [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and the driving force is limited. The PTA price mainly fluctuates at a high level in the short - term. Pay attention to the low - level positive arbitrage opportunity of TA5 - 9 [3] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material price fluctuation. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and try to reduce the processing margin on the futures price when it is high [3] - **Bottle - Chip**: In December, the supply - demand pattern of bottle - chips remains loose, and it follows the raw material price fluctuation. The processing margin is expected to be squeezed. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin of the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to reduce the processing margin in the short - term [3] - **Ethanol**: The cost side drops, dragging the EG price to decline in a fluctuating manner. Wait and see [3] - **Benzene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply - demand is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The short - term driving force of BZ2603 is weak, and it may follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices [3] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there is certain support at the bottom. The EB01 fluctuates and consolidates at a low level in the short - term [3] - **LLDPE**: The upstream reduces the price to sell goods, and the transaction improves. Wait and see [3] - **PP**: The spot price is stable, and the basis strengthens slightly. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [3] - **Methanol**: The near - term basis is firm, and the transaction is okay. Try to reduce the MTO margin of the 05 contract [3] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and it continues to run weakly. Treat it bearishly [3] - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply has not improved, and the market further weakens. Treat it bearishly [3] - **Soda Ash**: The production is at a high level, and the oversupply is prominent. The market continues to weaken. Hold short positions [3] - **Glass**: The production - sales ratio declines, and the spot price in some regions weakens. The market continues to explore the bottom. Treat it bearishly [3] - **Natural Rubber**: Pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Wait and see [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the interest - rate cut, the BR price rises, but the supply in the upper and middle reaches is abundant. It is expected that there is pressure above. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for BR2602, and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 [3] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean market has no bright spots. Pay attention to the domestic soybean customs - clearance policy. The market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [3] - **Pig**: The demand for curing bacon provides support. Pay attention to the epidemic situation. It is in a bottom - grinding market [3] - **Corn**: The increase in supply is limited, and the market fluctuates. It adjusts in a fluctuating manner [3] - **Edible Oil**: The soybean oil price follows the rapeseed oil price to rise. The palm oil price has support at 8000. The P main contract tests the support at 8000 [3] - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar - pressing progress is good. It fluctuates at the bottom [3] - **Cotton**: The purchase of Xinjiang seed cotton is over. Pay attention to the pressure situation around 14000 [3] - **Egg**: The sales at high prices slow down, and the supply is still abundant. It fluctuates weakly. Pay attention to the support strength at the previous low [3] - **Apple**: Traders mainly make inquiries, and the sales of apples slow down. It may fluctuate around 9500 in the short - term [3] - **Jujube**: There is supply pressure, and the market fluctuates at a low level. It runs at a low level [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to continue a weak oscillating pattern in 2026, influenced by concerns over rising inflation and ongoing strict regulations, which aligns with current market expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Policy Outlook - A potential shift from expansive fiscal policy to stable fiscal policy may occur if economic growth targets are lowered, which could reduce the fiscal deficit ratio and alleviate supply pressure on government bonds [1] - The transition from stable monetary policy to expansive monetary policy could enhance bond market performance beyond expectations, but this may require the emergence of bottom-up risk events [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The key to the bond market's performance in 2026 will be the anticipation of substantial changes in monetary policy, with a possible pattern of "slow at first, fast later," where the first quarter may remain subdued while waiting for policy changes and addressing inflation concerns [1] - The second and third quarters may present opportunities for market engagement, potentially leading to the formation of an annual low point [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance announced that the rollover issuance of special government bonds maturing in 2025 will not increase the fiscal deficit, with a total issuance of 750 billion yuan, including 400 billion yuan for 10-year bonds and 350 billion yuan for 15-year bonds [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange confirmed a joint letter with the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to IPO sponsors regarding concerns over the declining quality of recent listing applications and non-compliance issues [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced an increase in the trading margin and price fluctuation limits for silver futures contracts, with the margin for AG2602 contracts adjusted to 16% for hedging and 17% for general positions [2] Group 2 - Two leading liquor companies, Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, announced a total cash dividend distribution of 40 billion yuan, with Moutai distributing 30 billion yuan and Wuliangye distributing 10 billion yuan [3] - Haiguang Information stated that the termination of a major asset restructuring will not affect its ongoing collaboration with Zhongke Shuguang, focusing on integrated computing infrastructure and high-end chip design [3] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the benchmark rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut this year [4] Group 3 - U.S. stock markets saw gains following the Fed's rate cut, with the Dow Jones rising by 497.46 points (1.05%) to 48,057.75 points, and the S&P 500 increasing by 46.22 points (0.68%) to 6,886.73 points [5] - The offshore RMB was reported at 7.0610 against the U.S. dollar, remaining stable compared to the previous close [6] - Gold and silver prices increased, with spot gold rising by 0.46% to $4,227.37 and silver futures up by 2.27% to $62.230 [7] Group 4 - The ChiNext index is showing signs of potential rebound, with a focus on whether it can break through the recent high from November 13 [8] - Meituan is set to hold a press conference on December 19 to unveil its low-altitude logistics network, aiming to enhance delivery efficiency within a 3-kilometer radius [9] - Significant breakthroughs in high-resolution computational imaging have been reported, with potential applications in mobile cameras and medical endoscopes [10]