Core Viewpoint - The recent market trend is positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs for the year, driven by liquidity and market expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The financing balance has been steadily increasing since the end of June, surpassing 1.9 trillion yuan [1] - The rising stock market has led to an expansion of the market's profit-making effect, creating a positive feedback loop [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Attention is required on the market's support strength near key levels, with an expectation for the market to maintain a high-level oscillation in August [1] - Structural allocation opportunities should be monitored [1]

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Securities expects the market to maintain a fluctuating trend with a bias towards a high center of gravity, driven by liquidity and market expectations in the absence of established profit signals [1] Market Dynamics - Since the end of June, the financing balance has continued to rise, surpassing 1.9 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [1] - The upward movement in the stock market has led to an expansion of the market's profit-making effect, further promoting opportunities for growth and creating positive feedback [1] Future Outlook - Attention will be focused on the market's support strength near key levels, with expectations of continued fluctuations around a high center of gravity [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - Gold experienced a volatile "V-shaped" trading pattern, with a daily low of $3309.82 and a high of $3352.19, closing at $3338.99 [1] - U.S. stock markets saw collective gains, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.75%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.54%, both reaching new closing highs, and the Dow Jones up by 0.52% [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Approximately 50 companies in the S&P 500 have reported quarterly earnings, with 88% exceeding analyst expectations, boosting investor confidence [4] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12 were reported at 221,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week, indicating a robust job market [5] - Retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month-over-month, significantly above the Dow Jones estimate of 0.2%, alleviating concerns about consumer spending [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The potential nominees for the next Federal Reserve chair have shown alignment with President Trump, indicating a possible shift in monetary policy direction [7] - The current economic expansion and low unemployment rates suggest that consumer spending and profits may continue to grow, driving stock market increases [5] Group 4: Upcoming Data and Market Sentiment - Investors are focused on the upcoming University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, with an expected preliminary value of 61.5 for July, up from 60.7 in June [9] - Inflation expectations for July are projected at 5.0% for one year and 3.9% for 5-10 years, which may influence market dynamics [10] Group 5: Geopolitical Developments - Israeli airstrikes in southern Syria have raised concerns about escalating tensions in the region, with the U.S. and several Middle Eastern countries expressing opposition to foreign interference in Syria [12][13] - Russia has expressed willingness to engage in further negotiations with Ukraine, amidst ongoing sanctions and geopolitical tensions [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the new - year cotton price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long term, although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly [2] - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range, and the medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies. The import volume in July - August is expected to increase, which will limit the upside space [5] - The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,286 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1436, up 29 from the previous day; the national average price was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1452, up 32 from the previous day [1] - As of July 13, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 61%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 23%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 54%, 9 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The July USDA supply - demand report raised the global cotton production and ending stocks, with a bearish adjustment direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be in a loose supply pattern. The USDA raised the new US cotton production, and the new - year US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve significantly [2] - Domestic: The domestic cotton commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the short - term expectation of tight supply at the end of the year supports Zhengzhou cotton. However, the domestic cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, the new cotton is growing well, and the demand in the off - season is weak, so the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the medium - to - long term, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly, the new - year cotton market will be in a pattern of oversupply, and the medium - to - long term cotton price is expected to be under pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,802 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 258, up 15 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 103, up 15 from the previous day [2] - As of the second half of June in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 206.198 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.06%; the ATR of cane was 122.19 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 6.14 kg/ton; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 51.02%, a year - on - year increase of 2.33%; the cumulative ethanol production was 9.425 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.81%; the cumulative sugar production was 12.249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.25% [3] Market Analysis - International: The current market is optimistic about the supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season. The long - term raw sugar price is under downward pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term oversold rebound [4] - Domestic: The sales and production progress of domestic sugar in this sugar - crushing season is fast, and the industrial inventory has dropped to a historical low, making the spot price relatively firm. However, the rebound of the import profit after the quota due to the weakening of the external market, and the expected increase in imports in July - August will limit the upside space of Zhengzhou sugar [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range. It is recommended to sell high and buy low in the range. The medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,262 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 + 688, down 18 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 - 47, down 18 from the previous day [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was generally stable, with some pulp types showing price increases due to sellers' reluctance to sell at low prices. The prices of some softwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, Northeast China, Henan, and Hebei dropped by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the prices of some hardwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Northeast China, Hebei, and Henan increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton; the supply - demand of imported natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp changed little, and the prices were stable [6] Market Analysis - Supply: The import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year in the first half of 2025, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in hardwood pulp imports was relatively large. The import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the port inventory is high, and the supply pressure in the second half of the year still exists, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [7] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US has been weak this year, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. The domestic demand is weak due to the traditional off - season, the inventory pressure of finished paper is rising, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8]

- The report mentions the "Four-Engine Model" as a quantitative model used to identify potential opportunities in various industry sectors[6][13] - The "Four-Engine Model" suggests focusing on sectors such as computers, automobiles, machinery, pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, media, electronics, and telecommunications based on recent market signals and Sharpe ratio rankings[6][13] - The model evaluates sectors based on metrics like recent signal dates, potential profit-effect anomalies, and Sharpe ratio rankings over the past year[13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is currently in a situation where the bullish trend is intermittent, and the market will experience short - term oscillations. Although the fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market, market participants are well - aware of this, and fundamental news is unlikely to drive the bond market to strengthen further. The key for the bond market to strengthen lies in whether short - term interest rates can break downward. In the short term, due to factors such as tax periods and large amounts of maturing certificates of deposit, the short - bond market will not start immediately, and the bond market will mainly oscillate. Once the market confirms that negative disturbances are controllable and the loosening of the capital side can be sustained, the bullish market will resume [2][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review: Treasury Bond Futures Continue to Strengthen - From June 9th to June 15th, Treasury bond futures continued to strengthen. On Monday, the expectation of loose liquidity continued to ferment, and Treasury bond futures generally oscillated and rose, with limited impact from Sino - US trade negotiation news on the bond market. On Tuesday, the market news was relatively calm in the morning, and Treasury bond futures oscillated within a narrow range. In the afternoon, market risk appetite suddenly declined, causing Treasury bond futures to rise, with TL performing strongly, but then market sentiment eased, and Treasury bond futures gave back their gains. On Wednesday, the market did not think that the Sino - US trade negotiation results were beyond expectations. Coupled with news that the central bank was evaluating the demand for 6 - month reverse repurchases and that inter - bank deposits would decline, Treasury bonds performed strongly, with TL leading the rise. On Thursday, the market news was calm, the capital side marginally tightened, and short - and medium - term Treasury bond futures made small adjustments. On Friday, the Israel - Iran conflict had limited positive effects on the bond market, and Treasury bond futures oscillated within a narrow range. At the end of the session, the central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, and the May financial data was mediocre, causing the spot bond yield to decline slightly. As of the close on June 13th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.448 yuan, 106.150 yuan, 109.000 yuan, and 120.460 yuan respectively, changing by + 0.080 yuan, + 0.030 yuan, + 0.020 yuan, and + 0.390 yuan compared to the previous weekend [1][13] 1.2 Next Week's View: The Bond Bull Market is Intermittent, and the Market will Experience Short - Term Oscillations - This week, the liquidity expectation continued to loosen, there was still room for improvement in many economic indicators in May, and the Sino - US trade negotiations did not yield beyond - expected results. Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose, and the yield curve flattened slightly. Whether the bond market can strengthen depends on whether short - term interest rates can break downward. Looking ahead to next week, although the central bank released a positive signal through outright reverse repurchases, there are still disturbing factors such as tax periods and large amounts of maturing certificates of deposit. Against the backdrop of relatively high valuations, the short - bond market will not start immediately, and the bond market will mainly oscillate. The fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market, but the market is well - aware of this, and fundamental news is unlikely to drive the bond market to strengthen further. Most economic data in May are expected to show weak resilience, and only some indicators may strengthen slightly with policy support. The bullish impact of fundamentals on the bond market is certain, but domestic fundamental fluctuations are low, and the market has already priced in the current economic situation. Currently, the yield curve is relatively flat. When fundamentals cannot drive long - term bonds to break through, the subsequent room for long - term bonds to strengthen mainly depends on short - term bonds. Short - term bonds have been generally weak this year. Even though the capital side has gradually loosened since April and the certificate of deposit interest rate has generally declined, the performance of short - term Treasury bonds has still been weak. The main problem with short - term bonds is their relatively high valuation. After several months of valuation adjustment, the valuation is still slightly on the high side, as there is still a slight negative carry problem. When the valuation is slightly high, for short - term bonds to strengthen, it is necessary to confirm that the future capital side can continue to loosen. Although the central bank has released a positive signal through policies such as outright reverse repurchases, there are still disturbing factors such as tax periods and large amounts of maturing certificates of deposit. The market will continuously confirm the real impact of negative factors. Only after confirming that negative disturbances are controllable and the loose monetary policy attitude can be sustained will the short - bond market start. Overall, the market will mainly oscillate next week, and the rhythm of this bond bull market may be "intermittent" [15][16] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, a total of 51 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 941.126 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 292.648 billion yuan, changing by + 326.851 billion yuan and + 17.627 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. A total of 22 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 107.786 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 150.798 billion yuan, changing by - 18.09 billion yuan and - 93.513 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. A total of 668 certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 1041.37 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 162.26 billion yuan, changing by + 455.88 billion yuan and - 81.2 billion yuan respectively compared to last week [23] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of the close on June 13th, the yields to maturity of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.41%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, changing by - 0.80bp, - 0.10bp, - 1.81bp, and - 3.35bp respectively compared to the close of last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y yield spread of Treasury bonds narrowed by 1.65bp to 23.01bp, the 10Y - 5Y yield spread narrowed by 1.71bp to 13.08bp, and the 30Y - 10Y yield spread narrowed by 1.54bp to 20.54bp. The yields to maturity of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.51%, 1.60%, and 1.71% respectively, changing by - 0.93bp, - 0.86bp, and 0.47bp respectively compared to last weekend [29] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures continued to strengthen. As of the close on June 13th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.448 yuan, 106.150 yuan, 109.000 yuan, and 120.460 yuan respectively, changing by + 0.080 yuan, + 0.030 yuan, + 0.020 yuan, and + 0.390 yuan compared to the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures this week were 30,973, 51,133, 57,728, and 64,341 lots respectively, changing by - 8,537, - 7,149, - 1,632, and - 6,869 lots respectively compared to the previous weekend. The open interests of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures this week were 124,001, 173,011, 212,977, and 125,019 lots respectively, changing by + 2,885, + 6,294, + 16,960, and + 9,923 lots respectively compared to the previous weekend [37][40] 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunity for positive arbitrage was not obvious. At the beginning of the month, the capital side further loosened, and the basis of futures generally oscillated within a narrow range. The IRR of the CTD bonds of the main contracts of each variety was around 1.8%. Currently, the certificate of deposit interest rate is slightly higher than 1.6%, so the opportunity for positive arbitrage strategies is relatively limited. In the short term, there are relatively few IRR strategies [44] 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of the close on June 13th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were - 0.112 yuan, - 0.250 yuan, - 0.195 yuan, and - 0.860 yuan respectively, changing by + 0.000 yuan, + 0.015 yuan, - 0.035 yuan, and - 0.140 yuan respectively compared to the previous weekend [47] 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - This week, the central bank conducted a total of 858.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations. Since 930.9 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations matured, there was a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan. On June 13th, the central bank announced that to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system, on June 16th, it would conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 6 months (182 days) through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. As of the close on June 13th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.58%, 1.50%, 1.41%, and 1.51% respectively, changing by + 3.85bp, - 1.06bp, + 0.00bp, and + 0.80bp respectively compared to the close of last weekend. This week, the average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.95 trillion yuan, 0.45 trillion yuan more than last week (7.50 trillion yuan), and the overnight proportion was 89.39%, higher than the previous week's level (87.48%) [53][56][58] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds declined. As of the close on June 13th, the US dollar index fell 1.07% to 98.1450 compared to the close of last weekend; the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds was reported at 4.41%, down 10BP compared to the previous weekend; the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 276.5BP. The year - on - year CPI in the US in May was 2.4%, and the year - on - year core CPI was 2.8%, both lower than expected, indicating moderate inflation pressure. Trump once again called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, and the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in September rose to 57%. The yield of US Treasury bonds declined, the US dollar weakened, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts this year remained at 2 times, with the focus on the first interest - rate cut in September [63][64] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices showed mixed trends. As of the close on June 13th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, the Metal Index, and the Energy and Chemical Index were 3,507.97, 6,021.88, and 1,652.27 points respectively, changing by + 76.77, - 49.18, and + 68.99 points respectively compared to the previous weekend. This week, agricultural product prices all declined. As of the close on June 13th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.26, 4.33, and 7.78 yuan per kilogram respectively, changing by - 0.20, - 0.02, and - 0.01 yuan per kilogram respectively compared to the previous weekend [67] 7. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips, moderately pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of Treasury bond futures, and moderately pay attention to the strategy of steepening the yield curve [2][18][19]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a sideways fluctuation around the 3400-point level, with recent unexpected declines attributed to geopolitical tensions, specifically Israel's sudden attack on Iran [1] - The market is observing a wait-and-see approach, particularly regarding potential Iranian retaliation and its implications for market dynamics in the coming days [1] - Only two sectors showed significant gains today: oil extraction-related services and precious metals, indicating a shift in investor focus towards these industries amid uncertainty [1] Group 2 - It is advised to maintain a position of 60-70% in the market, with 20-30% allocated for short-term trading, especially around the 3400-point mark [2] - The fundamental market conditions remain unchanged, with macroeconomic policies and central bank support providing stability, suggesting no immediate cause for concern [2] - The market is expected to continue fluctuating within the 3300-3400 point range, with a focus on leading companies in strong sectors, while monitoring broker reactions in the upcoming week [2]

2.黄金建议回调3315-3310附近做多，止损在3302，目标3330-3350。 本交易日市场关注焦点集中于即将公布的美国CPI报告，预计该数据将引发显著市场波动。当前美元指 数维持在98.35-99.50区间震荡。随着美国5月CPI数据将于北京时间周三20:30发布，市场预期在数据公 布后行情将趋于明朗。统计显示，受特朗普政府推行激进关税政策及地缘政治局势动荡影响，2025年初 至今黄金价格已累计上涨逾25%。各国央行持续增持黄金储备，加速从美国资产中撤离资金。此外市场 参与者正密切关注周四的美国国债拍卖情况，若需求疲软可能进一步提升黄金的避险需求。交易员将重 点分析CPI数据以评估美联储利率政策走向，当前市场预计美联储9月降息25个基点的概率约为52%，该 数据可能显著影响市场对美联储货币政策的预期。 操作策略： 1.黄金建议目前3342-3347附近做空，止损在3355，目标3320-3300； 黄金4小时图技术形态显示当前处于震荡整理阶段，晚间建议维持区间震荡交易思路。从4小时K线结构 观察，布林带呈现收口状态，价格在中轨附近反复穿越，短线呈现震荡偏强态势。技术面上方需重点关 注3345-3350 ...

Group 1 - The domestic market is facing a significant issue with declining trading volume, which has fallen below 1 trillion, creating downward pressure on market sentiment [3] - The market is currently lacking overall opportunities, with only specific sectors like nuclear energy and resources continuing to rise, while other sectors show limited performance [3] - There is a liquidity pressure reflected in the rise of the overnight borrowing rate (GC001) by 10%, indicating a tightening of short-term funds as the end of the month approaches [3] Group 2 - The market is expected to maintain a volatile and oscillating process, with the national team likely to stabilize the market if significant downturns occur [4] - Current support for upward breakthroughs is insufficient, with limited short-term policy benefits and ongoing preparations for new industrial policies that may focus on high-end manufacturing and critical areas like chips and artificial intelligence [4] - The anticipated new version of industrial policy, which may emerge around mid-2025, is still in its early stages and unlikely to create immediate market impact [4]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the market is positive as billion-level private equity firms increase their positions, indicating confidence in the current market environment [1] - As of May 16, the overall stock private equity position index remains stable at 75.16%, maintaining above 75% for six consecutive weeks [1] - 56.18% of stock private equity firms are fully invested, while 24.10% are at moderate levels, 12.64% at low levels, and 7.08% are in cash [1] Group 2 - Dongxing Securities notes that after fluctuations due to the tariff war and earnings disclosures in April, market concerns about index levels have decreased, shifting focus to market rhythm and opportunities [2] - The market is expected to remain in a range-bound phase, with the second quarter's fundamentals still unclear, and concerns about the fundamentals have not changed [2] - Eastern Securities highlights that substantial progress in China-US tariff negotiations has reduced economic downward pressure, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite [2]