Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that as the long holiday approaches, the market is expected to continue its oscillating and structural trends, with a focus on growth styles supported by industry trends and performance outlooks [2][5] - The macro strategy team suggests that the market may maintain a balanced approach, recommending investments in large-cap indices and the ChiNext, while high-risk investors should consider opportunities in technology, new energy, and Hang Seng Technology sectors [2][5] Group 2 - In the stock market, the small-cap style is favored, and the growth style is showing stronger performance, while the volatility of small-cap styles has decreased and the volatility of growth styles has increased [7] - The market's trading concentration remains stable, with the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries maintaining their share of total trading volume [7][8] - Market activity has seen a slight decrease in volatility, while turnover rates remain at a high level compared to the past year [8] Group 3 - In the commodity market, the trend strength of black and precious metals has increased, while the trend strength of energy and chemical sectors has decreased [19] - All sectors have experienced a slight increase in volatility, and liquidity performance has shown divergence across different sectors [19] Group 4 - In the options market, both the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 are in a state of oscillation, with a gradual decline in bullish option skew, indicating a lack of confidence for further upward movement in the market [22] Group 5 - The convertible bond market experienced a slight adjustment, with a notable increase in the proportion of low conversion premium bonds, indicating a trend of oscillation and elevation [24]

Market Overview - On September 23, the A-share market experienced a day of volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.29%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.21% [1][2] - Despite a late rally in the three major indices, over 4,200 stocks in the market declined [2] Market Adjustment Reasons - The recent market decline is attributed to technical demand and profit-taking pressure rather than substantial negative news [3] - Historical patterns indicate that after the last four Federal Reserve rate cuts, the market typically undergoes a downward adjustment before entering a new upward trend, suggesting a similar pattern may be occurring now [3] Analysis from Shenwan Hongyuan - Shenwan Hongyuan's report indicates that the A-share market has not yet escaped a minor adjustment phase, highlighting three main issues: 1. Insufficient cost-performance ratio, with short-term indicators at high levels and the ChiNext's profitability effect relative to the CSI 300 at a low point [4] 2. Expectations have largely been re-anchored, with a return to long, medium, and short-term economic conditions and cost-performance perspectives [5] 3. The structural main line for further index increases remains unclear, with the market returning to a volatile state while waiting for new catalysts [5] Pre-holiday Market Sentiment - As the National Day holiday approaches, there is a noticeable shift towards risk aversion, with investors opting to secure profits [6] - Historical data shows a 60% probability of index declines in the five trading days leading up to the holiday, leading to a tendency for investors to realize gains to avoid uncertainties during the holiday [6] Short-term Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with declining trading volumes and a retreat from previous upward trends [10] - The technology sector is showing signs of differentiation, with recent gains driven by high-level positive news, indicating a lack of incremental capital in the market [10] Long-term Market Outlook - The overall market is expected to remain stable, with no significant downward trends anticipated, supported by long-term fundamentals such as interest rate conditions, policy support, and industry development [11] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the A-share market retains a favorable long-term valuation, particularly outside of a few technology sectors [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullish and buying on dips; Treasury bonds are recommended to stay on the sidelines [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; Glass is recommended for buying on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for sidelines or buying on dips with short - term trading; Aluminum is recommended for buying on dips after pullbacks; Nickel is recommended for sidelines or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [1][10][11][15][16][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate; Soda ash is recommended for shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [1][19][21][23][25][26][28][29][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA is expected to oscillate within the range of 4600 - 4950; Apples are expected to oscillate strongly; Jujubes are expected to oscillate weakly [1][34][35][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended for shorting on rallies; Corn is expected to oscillate widely; Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly; Oils are expected to oscillate strongly after a high - level correction [1][38][40][41][42][43] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading strategies for various futures products based on their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It believes that the macro - financial market has long - term potential, while different sectors in the commodity market have different trends. For example, some products are in a range - bound state, some are affected by seasonal factors, and some are influenced by policy and international trade factors [1][5][7][11][34][38] Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: The market is in a short - term shock, but in the medium - term, it is expected to benefit from the loose US dollar liquidity environment. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market adjusted on Friday, and the technical repair may be over. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and focus on the results of the China - US presidential call [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, with coal prices rising across the board [7] - **Rebar**: The short - term pattern of weak industry and strong macro remains. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The fundamentals are stable, and it is affected by coal news. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the 1130 - 1160 support [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to remain in high - level shock before the holiday, and it is recommended to trade cautiously on the long side [11] - **Aluminum**: The price is under pressure from alumina, but the demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the long AD short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply - demand side changes little, and it is recommended to short moderately on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended for range trading, with the reference range of 265,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai Tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for range trading, with reference ranges of 9800 - 10500 for the Shanghai Silver 12 contract and 820 - 855 for the Shanghai Gold 12 contract [16][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic Soda**: Considering pre - holiday restocking and alumina production expectations, it is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2550 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate, focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [25] - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range arrangement, focusing on the 15600 support [25] - **Urea**: The supply is slightly lower than last year, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the 1630 - 1650 support for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [26] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The downstream demand is improving, and the supply pressure is relieved. It is expected to oscillate, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [30] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and go long on the 05 contract due to the expected supply surplus [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply - demand situation is improving, but the new cotton production may increase. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - **PTA**: The cost and supply - demand are in a tug - of - war. It is expected to oscillate within the 4600 - 4950 range [34] - **Apples**: Affected by weather and market conditions, the price is expected to be strong [35] - **Jujubes**: The consumption is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies and focus on the long 05, 07 short 03 arbitrage [38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the long - term growth rate may slow down. It is recommended to short lightly on rallies for the near - term contracts and be cautious about shorting for the 12 and 01 contracts [40] - **Corn**: It is in the period of new and old crop connection, and the price is under seasonal pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and focus on the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient in September - October, and the price is under pressure, but it is supported by cost. It is recommended to focus on the 2980 support for the M2601 contract [42] - **Oils**: The domestic oils have a high - level correction, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on some arbitrage opportunities [43]

- The report mentions the "Four-Driver Industry Rotation Model" as a key quantitative model for sector allocation recommendations[2][8] - The model suggests focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, media, retail, agriculture, communication, machinery, power equipment, and computing based on its analysis[8][17] - The model's results are presented in a tabular format, highlighting potential opportunities in specific industries like non-ferrous metals and media, which are flagged as having "profit effect anomalies"[17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile. The prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost - side oil price fluctuations, and seasonal demand changes [1][2][4][5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices fell slightly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and most policymakers expect three rate cuts this year. U.S. crude and gasoline inventories decreased last week, while distillate inventories increased. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contracts rose on Wednesday. Although the autumn refinery maintenance season may tighten supply, the market will remain relatively well - supplied before October. High - sulfur fuel oil has support from downstream demand, and both FU and LU are expected to fluctuate, with attention to crude oil price fluctuations [2] - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Wednesday. Supply may decline slightly in September, and demand is supported by the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" season. The price may rise further, with attention to oil price and demand [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 rose on Wednesday. PX supply is recovering, and downstream TA maintenance is ending. The price is expected to fluctuate, with support from increased polyester start - up and potential improvement in TA fundamentals [4] - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Wednesday. Although production is increasing, there are weather disturbances in some areas, and downstream tire start - up has rebounded. Social inventories are decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are affected by domestic and overseas supply. Domestic supply is at a low level due to maintenance, and overseas supply is relatively stable. The price is expected to enter a phase - bottom [5] - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate slightly upward. Supply will remain high, and demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: PVC prices are expected to rebound slightly. Supply is high, domestic demand recovers slowly, and exports are affected by anti - dumping policies. However, the market is re - trading "anti - involution", and previous short positions are taking profits [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes of spot and futures, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data for various energy and chemical products on September 18, 2025 [9] 3.3 Market News - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.3 million barrels to 415.36 million barrels in the week ending September 12, due to record - low net imports and a jump in exports. Gasoline inventories decreased unexpectedly, and distillate inventories increased more than expected [11] - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%, and most policymakers expect three rate cuts this year [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [13][14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis and basis rate trends of main contracts for different products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [28][32][33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report displays the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., which helps to analyze the price differences between different delivery months [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, and the ratio between fuel oil and asphalt, providing insights into the relative price relationships between different products [58][63][64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profits of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE, which are important factors affecting the supply of these products [67][68][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **钟美燕**: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of the research institute, with over a decade of research experience in the futures derivatives market [72] - **杜冰沁**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth industry research and media exposure [73] - **邸艺琳**: A rubber and polyester analyst, with awards and media contributions [74] - **彭海波**: A methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst, with relevant academic background and industry experience [75]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced fluctuations with a rebound after a pullback, indicating volatility and rapid rotation of market hotspots [1] Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.98 trillion, a decrease of 140.4 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.38%, and the ChiNext Index saw a rise of 1.27% [1] Market Dynamics - The number of stocks that rose and fell in the market was roughly equal, reflecting a balanced sentiment among investors [1]

Market Overview - The current market sentiment remains heated, with the A-share upward cycle not yet over, but transitioning from a unilateral rise to a "slow bull" phase, indicating potential short-term volatility [1][4] - Growth style shows greater elasticity supported by industrial trends and earnings growth prospects, while cyclical style remains more stable; a balanced approach is recommended for investors [1][4] Equity Market Analysis - Last week, the market style favored large-cap stocks, with value style significantly outperforming; the volatility of large and small-cap styles increased rapidly, while value and growth style volatility decreased [6][7] - The excess return dispersion of industry indices increased, indicating a rise in industry rotation speed, while the proportion of rising constituent stocks decreased, suggesting a weakening of the strong index trend [6] - The trading concentration increased, with the top 100 stocks' trading volume share rising, while the top five industries' trading volume share remained stable compared to the previous period [6] Market Activity - Market volatility and turnover rate continued to rise last week, indicating increased market activity [7] Commodity Market Insights - In the commodity market, the energy and chemical sector's trend strength increased, while other sectors remained stable; the basis differential momentum for black and energy sectors rose [21] - Volatility increased in the black and precious metals sectors, with liquidity performance showing divergence across sectors [21] Options Market Overview - Implied volatility for the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 remains high but has shown marginal easing; the skew of put options for the 50ETF has risen rapidly, while the CSI 1000 remains unchanged [25] Convertible Bond Market Analysis - The convertible bond market experienced a decline followed by recovery, with significant volatility; the premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan stabilized at a mid-level [27] - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds has notably decreased, with these bonds performing relatively well; market trading volume has contracted but remains within a healthy range [27]

Group 1 - The market experienced a significant decline last week, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.81%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.18%, and the CSI 500 index down by 1.85% [3] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data continues to indicate a weakening economy, reinforcing the expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - Domestic economic data is expected to be released next week, including export and money supply figures, which may impact short-term market trends [3][4] Group 2 - The small-cap sector has underperformed compared to the large-cap sector, aligning with the previous indication of a "large-cap dominance" in market style [4][5] - The recommendation is to moderately reduce positions in both the main board and small-cap sectors in response to the current market conditions [4][5] - The automotive industry is highlighted as a sector to watch based on short-term momentum models [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current market fluctuations are not merely driven by capital but represent a systematic recovery of confidence, reflecting the gradual formation of a positive feedback mechanism in China's economy and policies [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ongoing market trend is characterized as a long-cycle market, with fluctuations serving as a "battery" for the market [1] - The market behavior is likened to a "little rabbit" style, where it makes progress in jumps and pauses but continues to move forward [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - For investors, understanding the overall direction, maintaining composure, and selecting the right assets are deemed more important than chasing short-term market rhythms [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current market fluctuations are not merely driven by capital but represent a systematic recovery of confidence, reflecting the gradual formation of a positive feedback mechanism between the Chinese economy and policy [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a "bunny-style" trend, characterized by small jumps and pauses, but consistently moving forward [1][6]. - Investors are advised to focus on long-term direction and asset selection rather than chasing short-term market rhythms [1][6]. Group 2: Factors Driving Market Confidence - The first factor is the reversal of pessimistic expectations regarding the transition of China's economic growth drivers, with the real estate market stabilizing and rental yields in core cities surpassing risk-free returns [2][3]. - The second factor is collective breakthroughs in technology, including advancements in AI, 6G, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have bolstered confidence in China's technological progress [2][3]. - The third factor is the clear support for the private economy through policies like the Private Economy Promotion Law, which is reshaping investor confidence [2][3]. Group 3: Capital Market and Economic Interaction - The interplay between capital markets and the economy is creating a virtuous cycle, with institutional investors increasingly focusing on industry logic and company quality, leading to a more stable and sustainable market [4][5]. - The gradual transfer of household savings to capital markets is viewed as a moderate process, not a sudden shift, and should not be overly interpreted as a trigger for short-term market movements [4][5]. Group 4: Market Volatility and Investment Strategy - Market fluctuations are seen as a "battery" that accumulates energy for future growth, and appropriate corrections can help digest bubbles and prepare for the next upward movement [5][6]. - Investors are encouraged to maintain patience during market volatility and focus on fundamental signals such as industry competition and continuous improvement in corporate profitability [5][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The best companies in China are expected to thrive, with industry concentration likely to increase due to policy support and market competition [5][6]. - The focus should be on how companies can leverage capital markets for better development and industry integration, rather than expecting immediate large-scale demand stimulation [5][6].