2026 年 01 月 04 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈艺鑫 S0350525010003 chenyx03@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 若人民币汇率持续升值，风格行业如何选择 ——策略周报专题 最近一年走势 相关报告 鹏》——2025-06-17 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、人民币强升值或弱升值期间，配置什 么风格或行业胜率弹性较高？2、当下应该关注哪些性价比较高的行业？ 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 《投资黄金如何增强收益——策略周报*陈艺鑫， 胡国鹏》——2025-09-28 《策略周报：反内卷行情有望进入第二阶段*陈艺 鑫，袁稻雨》——2025-08-24 《投资红利如何增强收益-——红利系列报告*陈艺 鑫，胡国鹏》——2025-07-25 《基于"三步走"的黄金交易策略*陈艺鑫，胡国 《我国财政货币双宽松下，大类资产如何配置*陈 艺鑫，胡国鹏》——2025-03-09 1、根据内需经济复苏强弱，将 2015 年 811 汇改后人民币升值阶段 ...

2． 数据来源：Wind，统计区间为2015/11/20-2025/11/19。过往指数数据仅供参考，不预示未来表现， 也不作为任何投资建议。 3． 数据来源：Wind，宝盈龙头优选基金定期报告，行业分类为申万一级行业，统计区间2023/6/30- 2024/12/31。 回顾刚刚过去的2025年，以科技板块为代表的成长风格领涨，价值风格相对受到压制。然而，风格轮动 是市场不变的周期规律，历史上每次价值风格走弱后都会迎来超额的回归1，从均值回归的角度来看， 2026年价值风格的超额或值得期待。事实上，从中证800价值/中证800成长的比值来看，自2025年10月 以来，价值风格已开始相对成长风格走强2。历史经验表明，岁末年初是市场风格再平衡的关键窗口， 这一时期资金的"求稳"心态往往占据主导，对盈利稳定、估值合理的标的青睐有加，带动价值风格资产 关注度提升。在此背景下，中欧基金拟于1月5日起正式发行中欧价值优选混合（A类代码：025721，C 类代码：025722），旨在通过精选高质量、估值合理的上市公司，力争为投资者提供布局2026年权益市 场的稳健选择。 资料显示，中欧价值优选混合定位"质量价值"风格，力 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 很多投资者都希望多元化配置自己的资金，想要覆盖人民币资产和外币资产，也想要覆盖股票资产和债券类资产。 美元债就是其中的重要一环，那么美元债券基金该如何投资？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，系统性地介绍了美元债券基金的投资知识。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 美元债 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ (1) 波动相对较小。 红利指数基金的波动，通常是大盘的 60%-70%上下。 (2) 牛市弹性不大，上涨相对均匀。 红利指数2025年牛市上涨不多， 要不要换品种呢? 2025年年初以来， ·A股的中证红利指数基金，大约上涨2% 上下。 ·港股的恒生红利低波动指数基金，大约 上涨20%上下，2025年港股红利还是挺 强的。 ·如果是沪港深三个市场的，沪港深红利 低波动指数基金，处于两个市场之间， 大约上涨12%。 这也是红利类指数基金，连续第五年上 涨了。 红利类指数基金的走势特点: 成长风格有可能出现一年里翻倍的涨 幅，例如科创板创业板，从2024年9月 到2025年9月，上涨翻倍。 也有可能遇到腰斩级 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a clear differentiation in the performance of growth and value indices, with growth indices showing superior profitability and elasticity, while value indices emphasize defensive characteristics and dividends [1][3][23]. Group 1: Major Large and Mid-Cap Indices - The major indices analyzed include the CSI 300 Growth Index, CSI 300 Value Index, CSI 500 Growth Index, and CSI 500 Value Index, all of which are designed to capture excess returns or enhance specific style returns [3][4]. - Growth indices are characterized by lower allocation to financials and higher allocation to technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors, while value indices are the opposite, focusing more on financials and cyclical sectors [6][10]. - The CSI 300 Growth Index has a significant concentration of large-cap stocks, with the top ten stocks accounting for 67.1% of the index weight, indicating a strong leader effect [10][11]. Group 2: Fundamental Performance of Indices - Growth indices exhibit higher PE and PB ratios compared to value indices, reflecting market expectations for future growth, with the CSI 300 Growth Index showing a cumulative increase of over 100% [1][23]. - The annualized returns since the inception of the indices show that the CSI 500 Growth Index leads with a cumulative increase of over 150%, while the CSI 300 Value Index has a more modest increase of approximately 30% [25][39]. - Dividend yields are significantly higher in value indices, with the CSI 300 Value Index maintaining a dividend rate of 3.5%-4.5%, while growth indices show lower dividend willingness [39][41]. Group 3: Market Capitalization Distribution - The CSI 300 indices are primarily composed of large-cap stocks, with over 80% of the CSI 300 Growth Index constituents having a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion [17][20]. - The CSI 500 indices focus on mid-cap stocks, with a significant portion of constituents falling within the 10 billion to 50 billion range, highlighting the distinct characteristics of mid-cap indices [17][20]. Group 4: Shareholder Attributes - Growth indices are predominantly composed of private enterprises, while value indices are mainly represented by state-owned enterprises, indicating a divergence in shareholder characteristics [11][53].

东吴证券指出，展望2026年，上半年成长或将更为占优。短期从增量资金的配置需求来看，险资通常会 受益于"开门红"效应，在每年1月迎来大规模资金净流入，有望在岁末年初呵护红利资产。但针对整个 上半年，从弹性和相对收益角度审视，成长风格可能更占优势。 下半年，红利风格料将回归。下半年成长板块面临压力。届时，更多由国内基本面与流动性定价的红利 风格将重获优势。反内卷政策需要3-4个季度左右的效果验证，若至2026年二季度PPI转正时点延后，十 债利率可能进一步下行，届时红利风格可能再上一个台阶。 红利国企ETF（510720）跟踪的是上国红利指数（000151），该指数从市场中筛选具备高分红能力与稳 定分红记录的优质企业，覆盖银行、煤炭、交通运输等行业，重点聚焦传统高股息领域。指数通过严格 考察成分股的股息率和分红持续性，并采用跨行业分散配置策略，以有效控制投资风险，反映高股息企 业的整体市场表现。根据基金公告，红利国企ETF可月月评估分红，在上市后的每个月都做到了分红， 已连续分红20个月。 注：分红情况具体详见基金分红公告，基金分红规则以基金法律文件为准，鉴于本基金的特点，本基金 分红不一定来自基金盈利，基金分 ...

2025 年 12 月 30 日 中欧基金吉翔：专注发掘具有长期 竞争优势个股的价值型基金经理 ——基金经理研究系列报告之九十 相关研究 证券分析师 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 其 他 权 益 类 产 品 - ⚫ 价值风格的配置价值：长期投资性价比更高，日历效应提示当下配置价值：价值是一类 持有体验度较好的风格策略：（1）从长期配置维度下相对占优；（2）大多数时间下夏 普比明显更高；（3）最大回撤明显更低、创新高能力更强。日历效应反映近期价值风格 的配置价值：观察近 10 年时间中价值风格在 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market in December 2025 ended with a structural differentiation, characterized by a growth style leading the market, with the Wind All A Index rising by 3.34% [1] - The ChiNext Index surged by 5.57%, indicating a strong preference for small and medium-sized growth stocks, while the Shanghai Composite Index only saw a modest increase of 1.97% [1] - The cyclical style index rose by 5.21%, and the growth style index increased by 4.97%, significantly outperforming the consumer style index, which fell by 1.44% [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector was notably strong, driven by intensive industrial policies, with the aerospace and defense sector rising by 15.87% and the communication equipment sector increasing by 16.51% [2] - The insurance sector also performed well, rising by 16.98% due to year-end institutional allocation demand and expectations of long-term investment policies [2] - Conversely, sectors such as interactive media and services, as well as the media sector, experienced declines due to previous overheating or lack of catalysts [2] Driving Factors - The primary driver of the market's performance was the influx of incremental capital, with net subscriptions to broad-based ETFs exceeding 110 billion yuan, particularly in the A500 ETF [4] - Strong domestic industrial policies, such as the National Space Administration's action plan for commercial aerospace, played a crucial role in stimulating related sectors [4] - Global liquidity expectations shifted with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December, alongside the appreciation of the yuan, creating a favorable external environment [4] Market Expectations - Looking ahead to January 2026, the cross-year market trend is expected to continue, but with a focus on structure and rhythm [6] - Major broad-based indices may experience a "volatile consolidation and structural differentiation" pattern, with support from institutional fund layouts for the spring rally [6] - Opportunities in sectors are anticipated to revolve around dual drivers of policy and industry, with ongoing stories in the non-ferrous metals sector and a focus on commercial aerospace themes due to policy developments [6] Investment Strategy - A flexible and structured approach is recommended for upcoming market conditions, with a "core + satellite" investment strategy suggested [7] - Core positions should focus on high-growth sectors with clear industry trends, such as energy storage and precious metals, while flexible positions can target policy-sensitive themes like commercial aerospace [7] - Overall positions should be controlled to avoid chasing high prices, especially in light of potential market volatility from upcoming economic data releases and policy announcements [7]

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 策略深度报告 20251230 布局高息央企，静候红利风起——景顺长城 中证国新港股通央企红利 ETF 投资价值分 析 [Table_Summary] ◼ 长期价值：看好港股红利的底仓配置价值 1）配置视角：红利资产防御价值凸显。今年以来（截至 12 月 26 日，后 同），港股红利资产在市场波动中展现出极佳韧性，收益回撤比高达 2.4 倍。 2）政策视角：政策推动红利资产吸引力提升。2024 年至今，A 股上市公 司分红力度明显加大，政策支持为红利资产注入长期估值重塑动能。 3）资金视角：险资等长钱配置需求有望持续释放。险资为代表的中长期资 金基于负债端久期匹配与收益稳定的需求，将为红利资产带来长期稳定的 资金流入。 4）红利资产内部：港股>A 股：港股恒生高股息指数的股息率为 6.7%，经 税后的实际收益水平仍优于 A 股同类资产。央企>国企>民企：恒生中国央 企指数近 3 年股息率维持在 5%以上，股息吸引力高于国企、民企。 ◼ 中期机遇：明年下半年红利风格超额收益有望再起 ◼ 国新港股通央企红利价值投资分析 2025 年 12 月 30 日 证券分析师 陈刚 1） ...

上周，成长 50 组合获得最优表现，获得了 3.71%的周收益，相对国证成长的超额为 0.47%。 投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 郑雅斌(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-23219395 | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 罗蕾(分析师) | | | 021-23185653 | | | luolei@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040014 | | | 卓 洢萱(分析师) | | | 021-23183938 | | | zhuoyixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040128 | 成长 50 组合占优 本报告导读： [Table_Report] 相关报告 风格 Smart beta 组合跟踪周报 （2025.12.22-2025.12.26） | 高频选股因子周报（20251222-20251226） | | --- | | 2025.12.28 | | 低频选股因子周报（2025.12.19-2025.12.26） ...

Group 1 - Market sentiment score has stabilized at 1.1 as of December 26, indicating a neutral outlook, with signs of improvement in trading activity [7][11][14] - The overall trading volume for the week increased by 11.63% compared to the previous week, with an average daily trading volume of 19,651.66 billion RMB, peaking at 21,811.04 billion RMB on December 26 [14][16] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reaching a new high, indicating an increase in leveraged funds and a recovery in risk appetite [25][27] Group 2 - The short-term scores for industries such as computers, real estate, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and machinery have shown upward trends, with non-ferrous metals, light industry manufacturing, and communications having the highest short-term scores of 88.14 [35][36] - The industry trading volatility has decreased, indicating a slowdown in capital switching between sectors, with liquidity marginally tightening [20][22] - The correlation between industry congestion and weekly price changes is positive at 0.16, suggesting that sectors with high congestion, like defense and construction materials, have seen significant gains [39][41] Group 3 - The RSI indicator has shown significant improvement, indicating a reduction in selling pressure and a recovery in upward momentum [28][30] - The model indicates a preference for small-cap and growth styles, with the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI continuing to rise, suggesting potential strengthening of these signals [44][45] - The model's findings highlight that high congestion in sectors can lead to strong price movements but also increases the risk of rapid corrections if market expectations change [38][39]