Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Market Style Factors - **Construction Idea**: The market style factors track the performance and volatility of different market styles, such as large-cap vs. small-cap and value vs. growth, to identify prevailing market trends and shifts in investor preferences [12][14] - **Construction Process**: - **Size Style**: Measure the relative performance of small-cap stocks versus large-cap stocks - **Value-Growth Style**: Measure the relative performance of value-oriented stocks versus growth-oriented stocks - **Volatility Metrics**: Calculate the volatility of each style to assess the stability of the trend - **Evaluation**: These factors provide insights into the dominant market style and its stability, which can guide portfolio allocation strategies [12][14] 2. Factor Name: Market Structure Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze the dispersion and concentration of returns across industries and stocks to understand market breadth and sector rotation [12][14] - **Construction Process**: - **Industry Excess Return Dispersion**: Measure the spread of excess returns across industry indices - **Sector Rotation Speed**: Quantify the rate at which different sectors outperform or underperform - **Stock Concentration**: Calculate the proportion of total market turnover contributed by the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries - **Evaluation**: These factors help identify whether the market is driven by a few sectors or stocks, or if performance is more evenly distributed [12][14] 3. Factor Name: Market Activity Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors measure the overall activity and liquidity in the market, including volatility and turnover rates, to gauge investor participation and sentiment [13][14] - **Construction Process**: - **Market Volatility**: Calculate the standard deviation of market returns over a specific period - **Turnover Rate**: Measure the trading volume relative to the total market capitalization - **Evaluation**: These factors are useful for assessing market sentiment and liquidity conditions, which are critical for timing and risk management [13][14] 4. Factor Name: Commodity Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors track trends, momentum, and liquidity in commodity markets to identify opportunities and risks in different commodity sectors [24][30] - **Construction Process**: - **Trend Strength**: Measure the directional movement in commodity prices for sectors like metals, energy, and agriculture - **Basis Momentum**: Calculate the change in the basis (spot price minus futures price) over time - **Volatility**: Assess the price fluctuations in commodity indices - **Liquidity**: Measure the trading volume and bid-ask spread in commodity markets - **Evaluation**: These factors provide a comprehensive view of commodity market dynamics, aiding in asset allocation and hedging strategies [24][30] 5. Factor Name: Option Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze implied volatility and skewness in option markets to infer market expectations and risk sentiment [33][34] - **Construction Process**: - **Implied Volatility**: Measure the market's expectation of future volatility for indices like SSE 50 and CSI 1000 - **Option Skewness**: Calculate the difference in implied volatility between out-of-the-money calls and puts to assess directional bias - **Evaluation**: These factors are valuable for understanding market sentiment and hedging demand, especially during periods of uncertainty [33][34] 6. Factor Name: Convertible Bond Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors evaluate the valuation and liquidity of convertible bonds to identify market trends and investment opportunities [36][39] - **Construction Process**: - **Conversion Premium**: Measure the difference between the market price of the bond and its conversion value - **Low Premium Proportion**: Calculate the proportion of bonds with low conversion premiums - **Market Liquidity**: Assess the trading volume and turnover in the convertible bond market - **Evaluation**: These factors provide insights into the attractiveness and liquidity of convertible bonds, which are important for fixed-income and hybrid strategies [36][39] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Market Style Factors - **Size Style**: Small-cap outperformed large-cap during the week [12][14] - **Value-Growth Style**: Growth stocks outperformed value stocks during the week [12][14] - **Volatility**: Size style volatility decreased, while value-growth style volatility increased [12][14] 2. Market Structure Factors - **Industry Excess Return Dispersion**: Remained stable compared to the previous week [12][14] - **Sector Rotation Speed**: Decreased compared to the previous week [12][14] - **Stock Concentration**: Top 100 stocks and top 5 industries maintained their turnover proportions [12][14] 3. Market Activity Factors - **Market Volatility**: Slightly decreased during the week [13][14] - **Turnover Rate**: Remained at a high level over the past year [13][14] 4. Commodity Market Factors - **Trend Strength**: Increased for metals and precious metals, decreased for energy commodities [24][30] - **Basis Momentum**: Declined across all commodity sectors [24][30] - **Volatility**: Increased slightly across all commodity sectors [24][30] - **Liquidity**: Showed mixed performance across different sectors [24][30] 5. Option Market Factors - **Implied Volatility**: SSE 50 and CSI 1000 remained in a range-bound state [33][34] - **Option Skewness**: Call skewness decreased, indicating reduced bullish sentiment [33][34] 6. Convertible Bond Market Factors - **Conversion Premium**: Stable for bonds priced around par value [36][39] - **Low Premium Proportion**: Increased significantly, indicating rising demand for low-premium bonds [36][39] - **Market Liquidity**: Maintained healthy trading levels [36][39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that as the long holiday approaches, the market is expected to continue its oscillating and structural trends, with a focus on growth styles supported by industry trends and performance outlooks [2][5] - The macro strategy team suggests that the market may maintain a balanced approach, recommending investments in large-cap indices and the ChiNext, while high-risk investors should consider opportunities in technology, new energy, and Hang Seng Technology sectors [2][5] Group 2 - In the stock market, the small-cap style is favored, and the growth style is showing stronger performance, while the volatility of small-cap styles has decreased and the volatility of growth styles has increased [7] - The market's trading concentration remains stable, with the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries maintaining their share of total trading volume [7][8] - Market activity has seen a slight decrease in volatility, while turnover rates remain at a high level compared to the past year [8] Group 3 - In the commodity market, the trend strength of black and precious metals has increased, while the trend strength of energy and chemical sectors has decreased [19] - All sectors have experienced a slight increase in volatility, and liquidity performance has shown divergence across different sectors [19] Group 4 - In the options market, both the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 are in a state of oscillation, with a gradual decline in bullish option skew, indicating a lack of confidence for further upward movement in the market [22] Group 5 - The convertible bond market experienced a slight adjustment, with a notable increase in the proportion of low conversion premium bonds, indicating a trend of oscillation and elevation [24]

Group 1 - The Core Viewpoint: The recent strong performance of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index indicates a significant outperformance of growth style over value style, driven by increased capital expenditure in AI foundational models, cloud services, and the gaming/advertising sectors [1] - Semiconductor companies have revised their profit expectations upward, primarily benefiting from strong demand in AI, data centers, mature processes, and domestic substitution [1] - In the new energy and manufacturing sectors, policies and overseas expansion are the main profit drivers, with intelligent penetration enhancing value, particularly for leading companies with high channel, cost, and vertical integration, as well as a significant overseas presence [1] Group 2 - The Science and Technology Innovation ETF (588360) tracks the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index (931643), which has a maximum fluctuation of 20% and includes 50 emerging industry stocks with good liquidity and large market capitalization from the Science and Technology Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [1] - The index samples cover core technology fields such as semiconductors, new energy, and biomedicine, featuring characteristics of high growth and industry balance, aiming to reflect the overall market performance of China's cutting-edge technology innovation enterprises [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF Initiated Link A (013306) and Guotai Zhongzheng Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF Initiated Link C (013307) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with the Sci-Tech 200 Index rising by 2.13% and individual stocks like ShenGong Co., Ltd. increasing by 20.01% [1] - The semiconductor sector is leading the gains, contributing to an overall rise in the technology sector, indicating a continuation of growth style in the market [1] - Institutions forecast that macro liquidity will improve, with the Federal Reserve's dot plot suggesting three interest rate cuts within the year, potentially driving global risk assets [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech 200 ETF Index closely tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 200 Index, which selects 200 securities with smaller market capitalizations and better liquidity from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2] - The Sci-Tech 200 Index, along with the Sci-Tech 50 and Sci-Tech 100 indices, forms a series that reflects the overall performance of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board across different market capitalizations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant upward momentum over the past year, with major indices experiencing substantial gains, although recent fluctuations indicate a short-term adjustment phase [1][2][3][7]. Market Performance - As of September 23, 2024, major A-share indices have recorded impressive annual increases: Shanghai Composite Index up 39.03%, Shenzhen Component Index up 62.31%, and ChiNext Index up 103.50% [3]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares rose from 74.71 trillion yuan to 113.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 39 trillion yuan, representing a growth rate of 52.20% [3]. - The trading volume on September 23 was 2.52 trillion yuan, marking a 376 billion yuan increase from the previous trading day, with 30 consecutive trading days exceeding 2 trillion yuan in volume [2][5]. Sector Performance - The technology sector has been particularly strong, with telecommunications, electronics, and comprehensive industries leading the gains, each rising over 100% in the past year [4]. - Among the 31 sectors tracked, all have shown positive growth, with telecommunications and electronics sectors seeing increases of 124.09% and 121.05%, respectively [4]. Individual Stock Highlights - Over the past year, 5,167 A-share stocks have shown positive returns, with 1,435 stocks rising over 100% and 420 stocks exceeding 200% [5]. - Notable high-performing stocks include Upwind New Materials, which surged by 1,720.50%, and ST Yushun, which increased by 1,133.01% [5]. Valuation Metrics - The rolling P/E ratios for major indices have significantly increased: Shanghai Composite from 12.24 to 16.38, Shenzhen Component from 19.59 to 30.85, and ChiNext from 23.53 to 43.62 [3][4]. - The technology sector's valuation has also risen sharply, with the telecommunications sector's rolling P/E increasing from 25.78 to 47.33 [4]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment does not alter the medium-term upward trend, with expectations for continued growth driven by fundamental improvements in sectors related to new productive forces [6][7]. - The market is anticipated to experience increased volatility in the short term, but the overall positive trend is expected to persist [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant upward momentum over the past year, with major indices experiencing substantial gains, although recent fluctuations indicate a short-term adjustment phase [1][5]. Market Performance - As of September 23, 2024, major A-share indices have recorded impressive annual increases: Shanghai Composite Index up 39.03%, Shenzhen Component Index up 62.31%, and ChiNext Index up 103.50% [3]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares rose from 74.71 trillion yuan to 113.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 39 trillion yuan, representing a growth of 52.20% [3]. - Over 1,400 stocks have seen gains exceeding 100%, with notable performers like Aowei New Materials rising over 1700% [1][4]. Sector Performance - The technology sector has been particularly strong, with communication, electronics, and comprehensive industries leading the gains, all exceeding 100% [3]. - Within the last year, all 31 sectors tracked by Shenwan have shown positive performance, with communication and electronics sectors seeing increases of 124.09% and 121.05%, respectively [3]. Valuation Metrics - The rolling P/E ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index increased from 12.24 to 16.38, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose from 19.59 to 30.85 [3]. - The rolling P/E ratio for the ChiNext Index surged from 23.53 to 43.62, indicating a significant valuation uplift across major indices [3]. Individual Stock Highlights - A total of 5,167 A-share stocks have positive returns, with 1,435 stocks gaining over 100% and 420 stocks over 200% [4]. - Aowei New Materials, *ST Yushun, and Shenghong Technology are among the top gainers, with increases of 1720.50%, 1133.01%, and 1061.66%, respectively [4]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment does not alter the medium-term upward trend, with expectations for continued growth driven by fundamental support [5][6]. - The market is anticipated to experience further rotation of hot sectors, with a focus on growth styles and sectors benefiting from policy support in new productive forces and green development [6].

Group 1: Asset Allocation Insights - The first principle of asset allocation is that all returns are compensation for risk [4] - Investors' funding goals determine the types and levels of risk exposure needed [5] - The purpose of allocation is to optimize the risk-adjusted returns of individual asset classes, focusing on the correlation between different assets [5][6] Group 2: Stock Selection Strategies - Understanding macro variables and overall asset structure can help gauge stock volatility not driven by fundamentals [6] - The gold-to-copper ratio can indicate economic cycles, with a declining ratio suggesting stagflation and an increasing ratio indicating recession [7] - The Merrill Lynch Clock illustrates that different economic growth and inflation levels correspond to optimal asset performance in various stages [10] Group 3: Investment Strategies for Cyclical Stocks - Three strategies for investing in cyclical stocks include speculative trading based on futures prices, top-down allocation considering demand expansion, and value trading focusing on low valuations of high-quality companies [10][11] - Key indicators for assessing demand expansion include capital expenditure ratios, PE and PB ratios, and observing macroeconomic leading indicators [11] Group 4: Views on Major Asset Classes - Short-term prospects for the US dollar show potential for a rebound due to interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, while long-term attractiveness may be diminished by rising credit risks [12] - The Chinese yuan faces short-term appreciation pressure due to improving growth momentum and foreign capital inflows, with long-term appreciation trends expected [12] - US Treasury yields are influenced by Fed policies, with long-term rates affected by economic conditions and rising deficits [13] - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, while gold serves as a good tool for hedging portfolio risks due to its low correlation with the dollar [13][14] - Copper demand is positively influenced by sectors like renewable energy and AI, positioning it favorably among cyclical commodities [14]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：招商ETF） 随着美联储开启降息，对利率敏感的港股科技资产获海内外资金流入。 外资方面，截至9月17日，EPFR口径下外资净流入境外中资股18.6亿美元，创去年11月以来单周新高， 其中主动型外资流出0.4亿美元，被动型外资由前一周净流出2.3亿美元转为净流入19亿美元。 南向依然低配科技，按恒生科技入通成分股在港股通流通市值占比对比，当前南向低配科技2.7%，相 比7月初的低配3.0%略有提升但依然低配。 场内ETF方面，$港股科技50ETF(159750)近7日获资金连续净流入超2亿元。 招商证券指出，根据历史经验，在预防式降息后的3个月A股和港股上涨概率分别达到100%和75%；降 息后的半年，港股上涨概率达到100%。中期维度上，整体继续看好美联储重启降息环境下，A股和港 股的投资机会。结构上，继续看好偏成长风格方向。 外资方面,截至9月17日,EPFR口径下外资净流入 填外中资股18.6亿美元,创去年11月以来单周新高。 其中主动型外资流出0.4亿美元,被动型外资由前一 周净流出2.3亿美元转为净流入19亿美元。 南向依然低配科技、按恒生科技入通成分股在港股通 流通市值占比对 ...

Group 1 - Growth style shows strong resilience, with growth and cyclical indices rising by 0.29% and 0.04% respectively, while other styles adjusted downwards, particularly the financial sector [3][5] - In August, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with significant growth in high-tech manufacturing at 9.3% and equipment manufacturing at 8.1% [6][10] - The service sector's production index grew by 5.6% year-on-year in August, with information transmission and software services growing by 12.1% [6][10] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut in nine months, primarily due to a weakening labor market and economic slowdown [4][8] - The market is expected to continue steady operation in the medium to long term, despite recent adjustments caused by significant declines in the financial sector [10][11] - Investment opportunities are identified in technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, with a projected increase in R&D investment to over 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, a 48% increase from 2020 [5][11] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy is promoting high-quality industrial development, with positive price changes observed in some sectors [5][11] - Domestic demand policies are expected to create opportunities in industries such as machinery, home appliances, and consumer electronics [5][11] - Fixed asset investment from January to August grew by 0.5%, with infrastructure investment increasing by 2.0% [6][10]

Report Investment Rating - The operation rating for CITIC Five-Style - Growth is ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market [5] Core Viewpoints - In the week ending September 19, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -0.27%, -0.03%, and 0.24% respectively. The growth and cyclical styles of CITIC Five-Style closed up, while the others closed down. The growth style continued to strengthen in terms of indicator momentum [5] - Among public funds, the ordinary stock strategy performed well with a weekly return of 0.48%. The convertible bond strategy in the bond strategy weakened, and the pure bond strategy's return rebounded. The net value of the soybean meal ETF declined by 2.68%, and the return of the precious metal ETF slightly corrected [5] - In the neutral strategy, the basis of IH, IF, and IC contracts was within 1 standard deviation of the three - month average, and the IM contract was below -1 standard deviation of the three - month average, indicating that the hedging cost was still at a relatively high level [5] - The short - term momentum factor had a good performance with a weekly excess return of 1.84%. The leverage and ALPHA factors continued to weaken, and the winning rate of the dividend factor rebounded month - on - month [5] - According to the latest score of the style timing model, the growth style rebounded this week, while the consumption and stable styles weakened, and the current signal favored the growth style [5] Summary by Directory Fund Market Review - The ordinary stock strategy in the public fund market performed well with a weekly return of 0.48%. The convertible bond strategy in the bond strategy weakened, and the pure bond strategy's return rebounded. The net value of the soybean meal ETF declined by 2.68%, and the precious metal ETF's return slightly corrected [5] - The financial - style funds in the public fund pool had excellent excess performance with a weekly excess return of 3.14%. The product's deviation from the growth style increased marginally, and the overall market indicator of the crowding degree declined slightly this week. The financial style was in a historically high - crowding range [5] Equity Market Strategy - In the neutral strategy, as of last Friday, the basis of IH, IF, and IC contracts was within 1 standard deviation of the three - month average, and the IM contract was below -1 standard deviation of the three - month average, indicating a relatively high hedging cost. The premium rates of the spot index ETFs corresponding to IH and IF were in the high quantile range of the past three months, while those of IC and IM were in the medium quantile range [5] - The short - term momentum factor had a weekly excess return of 1.84%. The leverage and ALPHA factors continued to weaken, and the winning rate of the dividend factor rebounded month - on - month. The cross - section rotation speed of factors rebounded month - on - month and was currently in the low - to - medium quantile range of the past year [5] - According to the style timing model, the growth style rebounded this week, the consumption and stable styles weakened, and the signal favored the growth style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was -1.72%, and the excess return compared to the benchmark balanced allocation was -0.71% [5]