Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel has led to significant volatility in crude oil-related products, while the soda ash market remains weak with an unfavorable outlook for the future [1] Macro Factors - The recent rise in crude oil prices does not impact soda ash costs, leaving soda ash unaffected by the upward trend in energy prices [1] - Financial and real estate data show no positive highlights, with national real estate development investment from January to May 2025 at 36,234 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%, and construction area at 625,020 thousand square meters, down 9.2% year-on-year [1] - The market's anticipated monetary and fiscal support has not materialized, leading to expectations of restrained future stimulus policies [1] Micro Factors - As of June 23, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers have a total inventory of 1.7559 million tons, an increase of 29,200 tons from the previous week, representing a 1.69% rise and an 84.19% increase year-on-year [1] - The weekly production of soda ash is expected to remain above 700,000 tons post-June, indicating significant supply pressure with limited maintenance support [1] - The photovoltaic glass industry is experiencing a reduction in production, negatively impacting the demand for soda ash, while the rebound in float glass prices is based on supply tightening expectations, which is also unfavorable for soda ash demand [1] Future Outlook - The fundamental outlook for soda ash remains weak, with no significant rebound or reversal expected in the short to medium term [1] - Attention should be paid to potential policy stimuli on the macro level and unplanned maintenance on the micro level; otherwise, the oversupply situation for soda ash is likely to continue [1] - It is suggested to monitor opportunities for hedging or arbitrage when soda ash futures prices rebound to the cost line of ammonia-soda enterprises [1]

Group 1 - UBS forecasts a 6% year-on-year growth in EPS for the CSI 300 A-shares by 2025, assuming current US-China tariffs remain unchanged [1] - A-shares are expected to experience limited downside with potential upward catalysts from policy changes, long-term capital inflows, and structural reforms [1] - The "national team" may increase holdings to stabilize the market in extreme scenarios [1] Group 2 - UBS analyzed five categories of capital flows and their potential impact on market styles amid macroeconomic uncertainties [2] - Central Huijin, representing the "national team," significantly entered the market during corrections, with 70% of its investments flowing into the CSI 300 ETF in 2024 [2] - Long-term investors and insurance companies favor high-dividend stocks and bank shares, creating a synergistic effect with Central Huijin [2] - Retail and short-term investors, along with quantitative funds, are expected to drive small-cap stocks to outperform large-cap stocks [2] - Public funds are facing sluggish issuance, negatively impacting growth sectors dominated by public funds [2] - Southbound capital is anticipated to continue flowing into new economy sectors, albeit at a slightly slower pace [2] Group 3 - UBS outlines five scenarios for industry preferences and investment themes [3] - Export-oriented industries, domestic consumption, and high-dividend sectors are highlighted across various scenarios, with a focus on technology and AI [6] - Easing trade tensions could benefit export-oriented sectors and boost high-beta industries, while defensive and high-dividend stocks may attract more investor interest under adverse conditions [6] - Strong policy stimulus is expected to benefit the consumption and real estate sectors the most, while moderate policy efforts may lead to inflows into service industries and AI themes [6] Group 4 - A list of recommended stocks includes PetroChina, Yangtze Power, and others, with respective price targets and upside potential [7] - PetroChina has a market cap of 165.08 billion RMB, with a target price of 11.80 RMB, indicating a 31% upside [7] - NAURA Technology shows a significant upside potential of 37% with a target price of 566.50 RMB [7] - Tuopu has the highest upside potential at 75%, with a target price of 81.00 RMB [7]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing limited fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing stability despite 2,921 stocks declining and 9 hitting the limit down [1] - The core market players are primarily concentrated in heavyweight stocks like the CSI 300 and SSE 50, with major support from state-owned entities such as Huijin, leading to a stable market environment [3][6] - The current trading environment is characterized by a lack of significant selling pressure, as major institutional players hold substantial positions in heavyweight stocks, making it difficult for other sectors to drive the market down [4][6] Group 2 - The market is entering a phase of dull competition, with participants waiting for financial policy changes, particularly in real estate and interest rates, to stimulate movement [6][8] - The performance of individual stocks, especially in the technology and small-cap sectors, remains active, while the overall index movements are less relevant to retail investors' profitability [6][8] - The potential for a significant upward movement in the index exists, but many investors may not benefit from it, as their individual stocks may not recover to previous highs [8]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the black commodities market, particularly coking coal, iron ore, and steel products, indicating a bearish outlook due to oversupply and weak demand [1][2][3][5][15]. Key Points and Arguments Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices have shown a short-term rebound but are expected to decline in the medium to long term due to oversupply and weak demand [1][21]. - Current coking coal prices are near the limit up, primarily driven by a short-term rebound after a prolonged decline [3][23]. - The market sentiment is affected by Mongolia's coal export policies and domestic resource law adjustments, which require ongoing observation [1][25][26]. - The overall coking coal market lacks upward drivers, and future price movements may still trend downward [21][32]. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - The iron ore market is characterized by increasing supply and decreasing demand, with global shipments maintaining high levels [5][20]. - Recent data shows iron ore shipments at 30-33 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3% [5]. - China's iron water production is declining, leading to a bearish outlook for iron ore prices, which may fall below $90 [5][20]. Steel Production and Inventory - Rebar production has decreased due to losses in electric arc furnaces, with expectations of inventory accumulation [6][8][10]. - Hot-rolled coil production has rebounded to near peak levels, but overall demand remains weak, leading to price pressures [7][8]. - Current profit margins for rebar and hot-rolled coil are modest, with rebar margins around 50-100 RMB and hot-rolled coil margins at 100-150 RMB [9][12]. Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - The black commodities market is in a prolonged phase of reducing volatility, with weak macroeconomic drivers and pessimistic market sentiment [2][11]. - The construction and real estate sectors are underperforming, contributing to weak demand for steel products [2][10]. - Policy measures have had limited impact on market sentiment, and further effective actions are needed to stabilize confidence [18][35]. Future Outlook - The overall outlook for the black commodities market remains bearish, with potential for short-term rebounds but a long-term downward trend expected [11][16][35]. - The market is closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators and potential policy changes that could influence demand and supply dynamics [13][18][35]. Additional Important Insights - The impact of Mongolia's political changes and resource tax adjustments on coal exports is a significant concern for market participants [25][26]. - The implementation of new domestic mining laws may lead to increased production costs and potential supply reductions [26][32]. - High inventory levels are currently pressuring prices across the black commodities spectrum, particularly in coking coal and iron ore [30][31]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the challenges and dynamics within the black commodities market.

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has indicated a cautious approach, preferring to wait for clearer signals from fiscal and trade policies as well as economic responses before making further interest rate decisions [1] - Market expectations have shifted, with traders withdrawing bets on a rate cut in June, anticipating a pause in policy until the July meeting [1] - Futures market positions suggest a probability of over 50% for a rate cut by the end of September, indicating a bet on either easing inflation or worsening economic conditions necessitating further stimulus [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - **Industry Investment Ratings**: Not provided - **Core Views**: The report analyzes the crude oil and polyester industries, suggesting that crude oil has a long - term downward trend in the price center but a short - term rebound, while polyester will experience short - term high - level fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term price center moves down, but short - term rebound due to improved macro - sentiment from Sino - US talks and domestic policy stimulus, though the long - term downward path is established [3]. Logic - The short - term high - volatility operation is driven by low current crude oil and refined oil inventories and good refinery procurement. However, OPEC+ over - production will not slow down, and new production in Guyana in Q3 will put pressure on oil prices later [3]. Market Conditions - The market structure briefly recovered, but the spot structure did not improve synchronously. US inventories are decreasing slightly, refinery feedstock remains high, and refinery profits are at a medium - high level, supporting normal procurement [5][13][20]. - Refined oil demand is better than expected, with high inventory depletion of gasoline and diesel, and neutral crude oil inventory, which supports the price bottom - up rebound [24]. Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - Short - term high - level fluctuations, with limited long - term upward space. The short - term demand exists, but the long - term upward drive is insufficient [3]. Logic - In May, downstream speculative inventory was active, demand is short - term, PTA supply decreases while demand increases, but later high processing fees may reduce maintenance, and high inventory of finished products and raw materials will affect inventory accumulation [3]. - Coal prices are low, coal - based production starts to increase again, supply is high, inventory depletion is postponed, and imports increase slightly, so ethylene glycol will remain volatile [3]. Market Conditions - PX outer - market price is $748, PXN rises to $189. PTA basis increased due to pre - holiday restocking but then fell back. PTA supply is low, and ethylene glycol production starts to increase [29][35]. - Terminal orders are low, but inventory accumulation willingness has increased. Downstream production remains at a high level, but profits are low, and inventory pressure is increasing [43][49]. - Downstream inventory depletion is obvious, but profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable, and polyester prices are in low - level fluctuations [51][57].

Group 1: Transportation Sector Insights - Huatai Securities recommends focusing on the transportation sector, particularly airlines, oil shipping, and highways, due to improving supply-demand dynamics and performance advantages in certain stocks [1] - For airlines, there is potential profit elasticity due to supply constraints, with the summer travel season expected to catalyze market performance [1] - Oil shipping is anticipated to benefit from OPEC+ production increases, which may boost shipping rates in May [1] - The highway sector showed stable performance in Q1 and is considered advantageous within the dividend sector, supported by risk-averse sentiment and interest rates [1] Group 2: High-End Liquor Market Outlook - CICC reports that the current demand for liquor is at a historical low (28th percentile over the past five years), indicating limited downside risk [2] - A more accommodative policy environment is expected to support a gradual recovery in liquor demand, with early 2023 economic data showing positive signs [2] - High-end liquor demand is projected to stabilize due to policy stimulation, while overall liquor performance may show a "first dip, then rise" trend throughout the year, particularly benefiting from low base effects in Q3 and Q4 [2] Group 3: Banking Sector Analysis - China Galaxy Securities highlights the positive outlook for the banking sector, driven by a series of financial policies, including interest rate cuts and liquidity releases [3] - Structural innovations in financial tools are expected to optimize bank credit structures, supporting both credit issuance and risk control [3] - The accumulation of positive fundamentals in the banking sector is likely to accelerate medium to long-term capital inflows, enhancing the sector's dividend value [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current trade situation will have a negative impact on the downstream consumption and exports of steel products, but has limited impact on billet exports. The profit of billet is currently good. The Politburo meeting emphasized measures such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the State Council Information Office stated that major policies will be introduced in the second quarter, boosting market confidence. The real - estate market in core cities may gradually stabilize and recover, while the market in low - tier cities is still bottoming out. The downstream demand has entered the peak season in April, but high demand may not be sustainable, and the apparent demand will decline seasonally after the consumption peak. For steel futures, it is a short - term rebound, not a reversal [2]. - Policy factors have boosted market confidence. The downstream demand peak in April may support the futures price. The steel mill profitability is acceptable, and the molten iron production is in a recovery trend but may have peaked. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and may continue to rise, and the port inventory has been increasing, which exerts pressure on the futures price. The real - estate data shows a mixed situation in different - tier cities. Technically, the iron ore futures price has been falling and is weaker than that of rebar and hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The trade situation affects steel consumption and exports. The Politburo meeting and policy announcements boost confidence. The real - estate market shows different trends in core and low - tier cities. The downstream demand in April is in the peak season, with rebar production, factory inventory, and social inventory decreasing last week, and the apparent demand falling month - on - month [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen in the past two days with a decline in positions, indicating a short - term rebound [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short on rallies, do not chase the rise [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have changed to varying degrees. For example, the rebar futures price increased by 0.90% compared to the previous day and 0.51% compared to last week [2]. - **Production**: The production of rebar decreased slightly by 0.05% week - on - week, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.99% [2]. - **Inventory**: The social and factory inventories of the five major steel products decreased. For example, the social inventory of the five major products decreased by 3.68% week - on - week [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Policy boosts market confidence. The downstream demand peak in April may support prices. Steel mills have acceptable profitability, and molten iron production is in a recovery trend but may have peaked. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level and may continue to rise, and the port inventory has been increasing, exerting pressure on prices. The real - estate market shows different trends in different - tier cities [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has been falling and is weaker than that of rebar and hot - rolled coils [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close short positions at low prices and then stay on the sidelines [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures have changed. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract increased by 0.21% compared to the previous day and decreased by 0.70% compared to last week [4]. - **Shipment**: Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased. For example, Australian shipments increased by 11.08% compared to last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased by 1.46% week - on - week [4]. III. Industry News - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2679.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230.4 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2512.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 187.5 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1159.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34.3 million tons [6]. - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2758.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320.7 million tons. Australian shipments were 1995.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 196.0 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1647.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 72.9 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 763.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124.6 million tons. The global iron ore shipment volume was 3188.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 262.7 million tons [6]. - In the fourth week of April 2025, the total shipment of Brazilian iron ore was 2346.94 million tons, with an average daily shipment of 138.06 million tons per day, a 2.49% increase compared to April last year [6].