Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has indicated a cautious approach, preferring to wait for clearer signals from fiscal and trade policies as well as economic responses before making further interest rate decisions [1] - Market expectations have shifted, with traders withdrawing bets on a rate cut in June, anticipating a pause in policy until the July meeting [1] - Futures market positions suggest a probability of over 50% for a rate cut by the end of September, indicating a bet on either easing inflation or worsening economic conditions necessitating further stimulus [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - **Industry Investment Ratings**: Not provided - **Core Views**: The report analyzes the crude oil and polyester industries, suggesting that crude oil has a long - term downward trend in the price center but a short - term rebound, while polyester will experience short - term high - level fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term price center moves down, but short - term rebound due to improved macro - sentiment from Sino - US talks and domestic policy stimulus, though the long - term downward path is established [3]. Logic - The short - term high - volatility operation is driven by low current crude oil and refined oil inventories and good refinery procurement. However, OPEC+ over - production will not slow down, and new production in Guyana in Q3 will put pressure on oil prices later [3]. Market Conditions - The market structure briefly recovered, but the spot structure did not improve synchronously. US inventories are decreasing slightly, refinery feedstock remains high, and refinery profits are at a medium - high level, supporting normal procurement [5][13][20]. - Refined oil demand is better than expected, with high inventory depletion of gasoline and diesel, and neutral crude oil inventory, which supports the price bottom - up rebound [24]. Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - Short - term high - level fluctuations, with limited long - term upward space. The short - term demand exists, but the long - term upward drive is insufficient [3]. Logic - In May, downstream speculative inventory was active, demand is short - term, PTA supply decreases while demand increases, but later high processing fees may reduce maintenance, and high inventory of finished products and raw materials will affect inventory accumulation [3]. - Coal prices are low, coal - based production starts to increase again, supply is high, inventory depletion is postponed, and imports increase slightly, so ethylene glycol will remain volatile [3]. Market Conditions - PX outer - market price is $748, PXN rises to $189. PTA basis increased due to pre - holiday restocking but then fell back. PTA supply is low, and ethylene glycol production starts to increase [29][35]. - Terminal orders are low, but inventory accumulation willingness has increased. Downstream production remains at a high level, but profits are low, and inventory pressure is increasing [43][49]. - Downstream inventory depletion is obvious, but profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable, and polyester prices are in low - level fluctuations [51][57].

Group 1: Transportation Sector Insights - Huatai Securities recommends focusing on the transportation sector, particularly airlines, oil shipping, and highways, due to improving supply-demand dynamics and performance advantages in certain stocks [1] - For airlines, there is potential profit elasticity due to supply constraints, with the summer travel season expected to catalyze market performance [1] - Oil shipping is anticipated to benefit from OPEC+ production increases, which may boost shipping rates in May [1] - The highway sector showed stable performance in Q1 and is considered advantageous within the dividend sector, supported by risk-averse sentiment and interest rates [1] Group 2: High-End Liquor Market Outlook - CICC reports that the current demand for liquor is at a historical low (28th percentile over the past five years), indicating limited downside risk [2] - A more accommodative policy environment is expected to support a gradual recovery in liquor demand, with early 2023 economic data showing positive signs [2] - High-end liquor demand is projected to stabilize due to policy stimulation, while overall liquor performance may show a "first dip, then rise" trend throughout the year, particularly benefiting from low base effects in Q3 and Q4 [2] Group 3: Banking Sector Analysis - China Galaxy Securities highlights the positive outlook for the banking sector, driven by a series of financial policies, including interest rate cuts and liquidity releases [3] - Structural innovations in financial tools are expected to optimize bank credit structures, supporting both credit issuance and risk control [3] - The accumulation of positive fundamentals in the banking sector is likely to accelerate medium to long-term capital inflows, enhancing the sector's dividend value [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current trade situation will have a negative impact on the downstream consumption and exports of steel products, but has limited impact on billet exports. The profit of billet is currently good. The Politburo meeting emphasized measures such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the State Council Information Office stated that major policies will be introduced in the second quarter, boosting market confidence. The real - estate market in core cities may gradually stabilize and recover, while the market in low - tier cities is still bottoming out. The downstream demand has entered the peak season in April, but high demand may not be sustainable, and the apparent demand will decline seasonally after the consumption peak. For steel futures, it is a short - term rebound, not a reversal [2]. - Policy factors have boosted market confidence. The downstream demand peak in April may support the futures price. The steel mill profitability is acceptable, and the molten iron production is in a recovery trend but may have peaked. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and may continue to rise, and the port inventory has been increasing, which exerts pressure on the futures price. The real - estate data shows a mixed situation in different - tier cities. Technically, the iron ore futures price has been falling and is weaker than that of rebar and hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The trade situation affects steel consumption and exports. The Politburo meeting and policy announcements boost confidence. The real - estate market shows different trends in core and low - tier cities. The downstream demand in April is in the peak season, with rebar production, factory inventory, and social inventory decreasing last week, and the apparent demand falling month - on - month [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen in the past two days with a decline in positions, indicating a short - term rebound [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short on rallies, do not chase the rise [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have changed to varying degrees. For example, the rebar futures price increased by 0.90% compared to the previous day and 0.51% compared to last week [2]. - **Production**: The production of rebar decreased slightly by 0.05% week - on - week, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.99% [2]. - **Inventory**: The social and factory inventories of the five major steel products decreased. For example, the social inventory of the five major products decreased by 3.68% week - on - week [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Policy boosts market confidence. The downstream demand peak in April may support prices. Steel mills have acceptable profitability, and molten iron production is in a recovery trend but may have peaked. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level and may continue to rise, and the port inventory has been increasing, exerting pressure on prices. The real - estate market shows different trends in different - tier cities [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has been falling and is weaker than that of rebar and hot - rolled coils [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close short positions at low prices and then stay on the sidelines [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures have changed. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract increased by 0.21% compared to the previous day and decreased by 0.70% compared to last week [4]. - **Shipment**: Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased. For example, Australian shipments increased by 11.08% compared to last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased by 1.46% week - on - week [4]. III. Industry News - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2679.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230.4 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2512.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 187.5 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1159.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34.3 million tons [6]. - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2758.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320.7 million tons. Australian shipments were 1995.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 196.0 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1647.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 72.9 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 763.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124.6 million tons. The global iron ore shipment volume was 3188.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 262.7 million tons [6]. - In the fourth week of April 2025, the total shipment of Brazilian iron ore was 2346.94 million tons, with an average daily shipment of 138.06 million tons per day, a 2.49% increase compared to April last year [6].