Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, the company reported a revenue growth of 16% year-over-year, reaching nearly $5 billion [7] - Gross margin expanded by 230 basis points to 57.9%, while operating margins improved by 200 basis points to 23.6% [7][36] - Earnings per share increased by 30% to $6.33 compared to the previous year [7][38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HOKA brand revenue increased by 24% to $2.2 billion, with wholesale revenue growing 24% and DTC revenue rising 23% [11][36] - UGG brand revenue grew by 13% to $2.5 billion, with wholesale revenue increasing 15% and DTC revenue rising 11% [24][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue for HOKA expanded by 39%, now representing 34% of global revenue, up from 30% last year [11] - UGG's international revenue increased by 20%, now accounting for 39% of global sales, up from 37% last year [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a balanced channel mix of 50% DTC and 50% wholesale, focusing on brand-led growth and expanding international presence [9][10] - HOKA is positioned as a leading performance brand with plans to enhance product innovation and expand into lifestyle and fitness categories [19][23] - UGG is focusing on increasing adoption among male consumers and developing year-round products to capture a broader market [26][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged uncertainty due to shifting U.S. trade policy but expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt [8] - The company expects fiscal year 2026 to face challenges, including potential tariff impacts of up to $150 million on cost of goods sold [39][41] - Despite these challenges, management remains optimistic about long-term growth prospects for both HOKA and UGG [49] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $567 million worth of shares during fiscal year 2025, reflecting strong cash flow and confidence in its strategic plan [38][47] - A new board chair, Cindy Davis, was announced, succeeding Mike Devine, who retired after 14 years of service [51] Q&A Session Summary Question: What factors contributed to the slowdown in HOKA U.S. DTC? - Management noted that the slowdown was due to unique factors in the U.S. market, including model changeovers and increased promotions, but expressed confidence in international performance [55][56] Question: Is mid-teens growth for HOKA still possible? - Management indicated that while they are not providing formal guidance, they remain optimistic about mid-teens growth based on strong international performance and brand awareness [60][64] Question: Can you elaborate on the impact of tariff costs? - The $150 million tariff cost is a gross estimate, and management is exploring pricing adjustments and cost-sharing strategies to mitigate the impact [75][76] Question: How will HOKA's growth be split between DTC and wholesale? - Management emphasized that the growth framework includes strategic expansion of wholesale distribution, which is expected to drive consumer engagement and brand awareness [81][82]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overseas risk appetite has decreased, and attention should be paid to the impact of economic data releases on market sentiment. There is still a need to be aware of the long - term economic decline risk under US tariff policies. The copper raw material supply remains in a tight pattern, with strong price support, but the price center is expected to move down due to reduced consumption intensity [1]. - The domestic commodity sentiment is marginally stable, while the overseas risk appetite has weakened. High tariff levels lead to concerns about long - term demand. The high processing fees of aluminum rods are conducive to further inventory reduction of aluminum ingots, with strong price support, but the seasonal weak consumption will limit the upward space of aluminum prices, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile [3]. - The inventory of recycled raw materials is limited, and the profit of recycled lead enterprises is under pressure, with the operating rate continuously declining. After the battery enterprises' holidays, the operating rate has returned to a relatively high level. In the medium term, the Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16300 - 17800, and the short - term lead price shows a strong upward trend [5]. - In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloys increased significantly. From a fundamental perspective, the port inventory of zinc concentrates continues to rise, and the processing fees of zinc concentrates increase again. The zinc ore surplus expectation remains unchanged. With the accumulation of zinc ingot inventory, the zinc price still has a certain downward risk in the medium term [7]. - The supply of tin is currently tight in the short term but is expected to loosen. The terminal orders in industries such as home appliances and electronics have not significantly increased, and the tin price center may move down under the drag of demand [8][9]. - The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the spot demand is weak. The inventory may return to the accumulation trend, and the nickel price maintains a bearish outlook [10]. - The supply and demand side of lithium carbonate lacks strong driving forces, and the futures price is in the cost - intensive area. If the demand does not weaken further, there is significant resistance to downward movement, and it is likely to fluctuate at the bottom [12]. - There are continuous disturbances in the ore and supply sides of alumina. The short - term impact of the mine shutdown in Guinea is large, and local policy uncertainty is high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [15]. - The nickel - iron market is in a game situation, and the high - carbon ferrochrome market is waiting for the June tender of steel mills. The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [17]. Summary by Metals Copper - The LME copper closed down 0.71% to $9487/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77770 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168825 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rose to 39.1%. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.5 tons to 4.1 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved. The import loss of domestic copper spot increased to over 400 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference narrowed slightly. The expected operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract today is 77000 - 78400 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9400 - 9600 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum closed down 0.22% to $2475/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20135 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.04 million hands to 51.6 million hands, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 tons to 6.0 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1.05 tons to 44.7 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 8.3 tons. The spot premium in the East China region remained unchanged. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract today is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2450 - 2500 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - The 3S price of lead rose by 13.5 to $1985/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16725 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 4.11 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 24.58 tons. The domestic social inventory increased to 5.82 tons. The medium - term expected operating range of the Shanghai lead index is 16300 - 17800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.76% to 22417 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose 62 to $2730.5/ton. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 22760 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.14 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 15.67 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 8.38 tons. In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloys increased significantly. The zinc price still has a downward risk in the medium term [7]. Tin - On May 21, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 267730 yuan/ton, up 1.13%. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 8070 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 15 tons to 2670 tons. The upstream tin concentrate price rose. The tin ore supply is expected to loosen, and the tin price center may move down. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and that of overseas LME tin is 30000 - 33000 dollars/ton [8][9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 123760 yuan/ton, up 0.18%, and the LME main contract closed at $15630/ton, up 0.64%. The price of nickel ore is stable or slightly decreased, the nickel - iron price is stable, and the price of intermediate products is high. The LME nickel inventory increased by 90 tons to 202098 tons. The nickel price maintains a bearish outlook. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract today is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 15000 - 16300 dollars/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 62,657 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2507 contract closed at 61,100 yuan, up 0.39%. The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The expected operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2507 contract today is 60,400 - 61,800 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - On May 21, 2025, the alumina index rose 3.55% to 3241 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions increased. The overseas Australian FOB price remained stable, and the import loss was 152 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1.68 tons to 17.35 tons. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [14][15]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12870 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the nickel - iron price decreased slightly. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 0.42%. The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [17].

【沪铜本周重心下移，多因素影响其走势】5 月 20 日，中国央行1 年期和 5 年期 LPR 同步下调 10 个基 点，释放稳增长信号。 美联储高官表态年内更倾向只降息一次，周末穆迪下调美国主权信用评级，美 国数据及信用评级双下滑，市场避险情绪再起，铜价承压。 供给端，截止 5 月 19 日，现货粗炼费 (TC)-43.03 美元/千吨，现货精炼费(RC)-4.30 美分/磅，冶炼厂加工费负值扩大放缓，实质性减产尚未推 进。预计废铜将继续大量进入国内。 2025 年 4 月我国进口精炼铜 30.02 万吨，累计同比-1.83%，4 月出 口精炼铜 5.31 万吨，累计同比+216.38%。 库存端，上期所铜库存周内低位反弹，美铜继续大幅增加库 存。 需求端，下游需求边际走弱，社库止跌回弹，终端动能减弱。截至 2025 年 3 月，电解铜表观消费 137.24 万吨，涨跌+9.38 万吨，涨跌幅 7.34%。五月进入需求淡季，预计表观消费量减少。 2025 年 1-4 月乘用车累计销量 687.2 万辆，同比增 7.9%。政策等因素促市场超预期增长，削弱季度周期波动。 整 体来看，市场预期不确定，铜价承压，基本 ...

NO.1黄子韬卫生巾上线，总投资已达2.75亿元 5月18日，黄子韬创办的卫生巾品牌"朵薇"召开发布会，总投资已达2.75亿元，当晚7点正式发售。售卖 方式分为迷你巾、日用、夜用、安睡裤等多品类打包售卖以及单品类多包售卖。 点评：黄子韬创办的卫生巾品牌"朵薇"正式亮相，明星入局传统日化赛道，再次体现"流量+消费"模式 的延展力。从产品定价看，朵薇价格略低于苏菲、高洁丝等品牌。卫生巾在渠道、技术与品牌认知上存 在激烈竞争，朵薇是否能将明星效应转化为产品复购力，在"安全、舒适、真实"上建立消费者信任，或 是其在卫生巾赛道突围的关键。 NO.2安井食品港股IPO获中国证监会备案 5月16日，中国证监会国际合作司发布关于安井食品（603345）集团股份有限公司境外发行上市备案通 知书，安井食品拟发行不超过5952.14万股境外上市普通股并在香港联合交易所上市。 点评：安井食品计划在港交所上市，体现了中国优质消费品企业加速"走出去"的趋势。作为速冻食品行 业的龙头，安井食品港股IPO(首次公开募股)有望提升品牌影响力、拓展海外市场，并优化资本结构。 ｜ 2025年5月19日星期一｜ NO.3迪克体育用品将斥资24亿美元 ...

期货研究报告 商品研究 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 盘面证伪禁矿消息 沪镍维持滚动做空 报告内容摘要: [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 5 月 13 日 [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary]【菲律宾禁镍出口 印尼冶炼业恐陷"原料荒"】菲律宾政府 计划自 2025 年 6 月起实施镍矿出口禁令，预计将重创印尼镍冶炼产业。印 尼镍矿协会（APNI）矿业顾问委员会成员 Djoko Widajatno5 月 7 日表示， 尽管印尼是全球最大镍生产国，但国内多家冶炼厂仍依赖菲律宾镍矿供应， 尤其是对本土日渐稀缺的高品位镍矿。这种依赖性使莫罗瓦利、韦达湾等 工业园区的冶炼厂面临供应链断裂风险。2024 年印尼从菲律宾进口约 1000 万吨镍矿，主要供应上述工业园区的冶炼厂。Djoko 指出，菲律宾禁令或将 引发全球镍矿供应紧缩和价格上涨。短期虽有利于本土镍矿商获利，但将 推高依赖进口原料的冶炼厂运营成本。（要钢网）（盘面已经证伪） 供应：从盘面表现来看，基本已经可以认为菲律宾禁矿传言被 ...

"完全正确的做法就是什么也不做，因为不管怎样这都将是一个错误"。 值得一提的是，考虑到历史上美联储的"迟滞"基因，美媒颇具反讽地评论到： "如果特朗普给鲍威尔贴上的"为时已晚"（Too Late）标签成为现实，他也并不孤单... 毕竟，美联储领导人在调整利率时的犹豫不决已成历史常态。" 从历史上看，美联储领导人常因在利率调整上显得犹豫不决、行动滞后而饱受诟病。 无论是上世纪70年代，亚瑟·伯恩斯在滞胀幽灵初现时未能及时收紧银根；还是90年代，艾伦·格林斯潘 对互联网泡沫的反应迟缓；抑或是本·伯南克在2008年金融海啸前夕，将次贷危机轻描淡写为"可控"， 且未能先发制人地降息。 这些案例共同指向一个规律：在缺乏压倒性数据证明行动的必要性之前，美联储往往倾向于观望。Dan North总结道： "回顾70年代以来的历史，美联储在政策周期的两个拐点上几乎总是迟到... 不少经济学家认为，面对这种"双输"局面，鲍威尔此刻只能按兵不动。安联贸易北美高级经济学家Dan North表示： 在美联储的双重使命——充分就业和低通胀——同时受到特朗普政府关税政策威胁的背景下，鲍威尔正 面临一个近乎无解的"双输"局面：无论他掌舵下的 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $500.8 million, a 7.1% increase from $467.6 million in Q1 2024, representing an 8.9% growth rate on a revenue per day basis [8][12] - Adjusted EBITDA was $102.7 million, up 6.8% from $96.1 million in the same quarter last year, with a slight decrease in adjusted EBITDA margin from 20.6% to 20.5% [8][19] - Net income was $40.6 million, lower than the same quarter last year primarily due to increased interest expenses and transaction costs related to acquisitions [10][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total patient visits per day increased 3.2% year over year to 50,900, with a 0.6% increase to 49,600 when excluding the Nova acquisition [5][12] - Workers' compensation revenue was $302.1 million, an 8% increase year over year, with visits per day up 2.4% [13] - Employer services revenue increased 6.2% to $160.1 million, with visits per day up 3.9%, marking a turnaround from previous declines [14][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong growth in both workers' compensation and employer services, indicating a positive trend in visit volumes across all service lines [6][10] - The acquisition of Nova Medical Centers contributed positively to the company's performance, although it only accounted for one month of results in Q1 [4][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on corporate development, having recently completed several acquisitions, including Nova and Physician Health Center, and is set to close the Pivot On-site acquisition [7][25] - The strategy includes expanding the on-site health clinics business, which is expected to double revenue in that segment and enhance overall service offerings [24][25] - The company aims to maintain a leverage ratio of approximately 3.5 times by the end of 2025 and is committed to deleveraging while focusing on organic growth initiatives [26][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the current macroeconomic environment, noting no observed impact on visit volumes despite broader economic uncertainties [28][29] - The company is well-positioned to handle potential economic slowdowns, leveraging its history of managing costs effectively during downturns [31][32] - Future growth is anticipated from potential increases in manufacturing jobs due to reshoring efforts, which could drive visit growth at the company's centers [30][32] Other Important Information - The company declared a cash dividend of $0.0625 per share, payable on May 29, 2025 [22] - The company ended Q1 2025 with a total debt balance of $1.6 billion and a cash balance of $52 million, with a net leverage ratio of 3.9 times [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on Employer Services volumes and turnaround - Management noted that the turnaround in employer services was aided by improved sales and marketing efforts, leading to increased optimism among employers [38][40] Question: Future growth with recent acquisitions - Management highlighted that the acquisitions enhance partnerships within the managed care ecosystem, driving additional volume and growth opportunities [42][44] Question: Workers' compensation performance and outlook - Management acknowledged that while organic growth was slightly slower than expected, they anticipate continued positive growth in the future [51][52] Question: Impact of inflation on rates - Management indicated that rates typically adjust in line with inflation, with historical patterns showing timely updates to fee schedules [58][60] Question: Cost of services performance and labor efficiencies - Management confirmed that labor efficiencies and revenue increases contributed to lower costs as a percentage of revenue, with ongoing investments in technology to enhance efficiency [62][64] Question: Guidance update and acquisition impacts - Management clarified that the updated guidance includes contributions from recent acquisitions, with expectations for continued strong performance [66][68]

对于美国经济状况，鲍威尔的评论如下： 在五月份的议息会议中，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）维持联邦基金利率不变，并继续缩表，这一切都在市场的意料之中。然而，继续顶住 特朗普压力的美联储主席鲍威尔，会后声明中的措辞发生了变化，值得市场玩味。 继续保持"等待观望"态度 尽管存在高度不确定性，美国经济仍然保持稳健。失业率仍然较低，劳动力市场处于或接近最大就业，通胀已明显改善，但仍高于美联储2%的 较长远利率目标。 为此，联邦储备局公开市场委员会（FOMC）决定维持联邦基金利率于4.25%-4.50%的区间不变，并继续缩表。失业率和通胀上升的风险明显上 升，而鲍威尔认为当前的货币政策能让其处于一个能及时回应潜在经济发展的状态。 | FINET | 美联储最近一次利率调整周期 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 加息/减息(基点) | 联邦基金目标利率 | | 2024 年 9 月 19 日 | -50 | 4.75%-5.00% | | 2024 年 11 月 8 日 | -25 | 4.50%-4.75% | | 2024 年 12 月 19 日 | | 4.25%-4.50% | | 202 ...

美国政府关税政策"恶果"正在美最大、最繁忙集装箱港口洛杉矶港显现。洛杉矶港执行董事吉恩·塞罗 卡当地时间5月6日表示，本周港口货物量已下降约35%。国际码头与仓库工会成员萨尔·迪科斯坦佐直 言，当前形势下，南加州有90万名工人正面临工作机会不断流失的困境。全美范围内，与供应链相关行 业的900万人的命运取决于该港口正在发生的一切。 (央视财经) ...

今日摘要 习近平总书记指出，"用创造拥抱新时代，以奋斗铸就新辉煌"。广大劳动者牢记总书记嘱托，在新时代 新征程上立足岗位、拼搏奉献，把强国建设、民族复兴伟业不断推向前进。 "五一"假期，各地文旅活动丰富多彩，人们在节日氛围中，共享美好时光。 假期第二天，预计全社会跨区域人员流动量超2.9亿人次，短途客流增长明显。 "五一"假期，"以旧换新"商品销售火热，持续激发消费市场新活力。 美国商会致信美国政府，要求为美国小企业豁免关税，以免美国经济陷入衰退。 内容速览 【新思想引领新征程】礼赞劳动创造 奋斗成就梦想 习近平总书记指出，"用创造拥抱新时代，以奋斗铸就新辉煌"。广大劳动者牢记总书记嘱托，在新时代 新征程上立足岗位、拼搏奉献，把强国建设、民族复兴伟业不断推向前进。 假期活动丰富多彩 节日消费持续升温 "五一"假期，各地推出多姿多彩的活动，丰富群众的假期生活。人们在节日氛围中，共享美好时光。 【文化中国行】文博游火热 沉浸式感受中华传统文化 系列报道《文化中国行》今天播出：假期里，人们走进文博场所，感受传统文化魅力。 "五一"假期，人们在博物馆和古迹遗址中，沉浸式感受中华优秀传统文化魅力。 "五一"假期第二天 ...