US sanctions, China, crypto ban. Photo by BeInCrypto China's yuan climbed to a fresh 14-month high against the dollar on Monday, adding another layer of complexity to an already turbulent macro environment for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The world's three largest central banks are now moving in distinctly different directions. The Federal Reserve just delivered a hawkish rate cut, the Bank of Japan is poised to raise rates this week, and China's PBOC is navigating yuan strength amid a slowing ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 14640, with a recent opening at 14974 and a current price of 14720, reflecting a decrease of 0.37% [1] - The highest price reached was 15192, while the lowest was 14237, indicating a short-term bullish trend in silver futures [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for silver futures contracts, increasing the fluctuation limit to 15% and the margin for holding positions to 16% [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey indicates ongoing inflationary pressures, leading to expectations of an interest rate hike from 0.5% to 0.75%, a level not seen in 30 years [2] - The anticipated rate hike may trigger a wave of unwinding in "yen carry trades," potentially exerting significant pressure on global risk assets, particularly dollar-denominated assets [2] - The silver market is characterized by lower liquidity, making it more susceptible to large capital movements, which could increase future volatility [2]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 上周伦敦现货黄金震荡走高，周度上涨2.43%。上周五夜盘贵金属波动加剧，盘中冲高后快速回落，其 中现货黄金盘中涨近2%后转跌，现货白银盘中跳水，收跌近2%。美联储为呵护金融市场流动性购买短 债的动作以及缩表结束扩表预期成为推动金价再次走强的诱因，但结合对美联储1月降息预判以及近期 地缘政治走向，黄金推涨动力也并不强劲，整体来看或依然维系区间震荡内走势。 本周12月19日日央行将决定是否加息，海外金融市场或进入风险周，关注美股的波动以及对贵金属市场 的影响。据路透社报道称，日本央行或将把政策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，这将是自今年1月以来的首 次加息。日本央行重启加息预期或导致过去"日元套利交易"出现平仓潮，给全球风险资产特别是美元资 产构成较大压力。 本周12月19日日央行将决定是否加息，海外金融市场或进入风险周，关注美股的波动以及对贵金属市场 的影响。据路透社报道称，日本央行或将把政策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，这将是自今年1月以来的首 次加息。日本央行重启加息预期或导致过去"日元套利交易"出现平仓潮，给全球风险资产特别是美元资 产构 ...

市场聚焦12月15日发布的日本短观调查，该数据反映的企业盈利、就业及投资意愿将为日银政策决策提 供核心依据。若调查显示企业景气度回升、薪资增长预期增强，将进一步巩固加息预期，推动日元走 强；反之则可能令日银暂缓行动，缓解汇价下行压力。 12月15日，美元兑日元汇率报155.82，整体呈现窄幅震荡态势。当前汇价走势主要受日美两国央行政策 博弈主导，市场情绪聚焦于日本央行12月议息会议与美联储降息后的政策路径分歧。 日本央行加息预期持续升温，行长植田和男此前明确表示12月18-19日货币政策会议将"酌情做出加息决 定"。最新市场定价显示，日本央行12月加息25个基点至0.75%的概率已升至80%，而路透调查显示九成 经济学家均预测本次会议将加息，推动日美利差收窄预期进一步强化。值得注意的是，日银内部倾向 于"走一步看一步"的加息策略，计划淡化"中性利率"指引，转而根据经济反馈动态调整政策节奏，这也 为后续加息路径增添了不确定性。 美联储方面，12月已如期完成年内第三次降息(25个基点)，将联邦基金利率下调至3.5%-3.75%，但政策 分歧显著：本次决议出现3票反对，创6年以来反对票数量新高，部分委员认为明年应维 ...

近年来，日本的加息政策可能会给中国带来前所未有的机会，这意味着美日关系可能走向破裂。若日本决定加息，这将使美国金融市场发生剧烈波动，而中 国则有可能趁机介入，直接影响全球金融的敏感领域。日本加息的背后，潜藏着美日两国金融合作的结束，而这一变化将如何影响美国及日本的经济局势 呢？ 对于生活在2025年末的日本民众来说，经济状况非常严峻。当他们走进超市，看到咖啡豆的价格因通货膨胀上涨了50%以上，主食大米的价格暴涨40%时， 内心的焦虑感自然油然而生。即便是海鲜这种本土盛产的食物，价格也悄然上涨，甚至鸡蛋的价格也涨了8.5%。与此同时，水电燃气等家庭账单不断增 加，普通家庭的生活压力越来越大，民生危机迫使日本央行做出了一个重大决定。 日本央行行长植田和男已经将目光聚焦在12月的议息会议上，计划将基准利率从0.5%上调至0.75%。这一看似微不足道的0.25个百分点，实际上象征着日本 告别了过去30年温和的低利率政策。对于美国而言，这一举措无疑是个坏消息，因为美国的金融霸权正依赖于日本低利率的持续支撑。 长期以来，美国的金融体系通过日元套利交易运转，即全球资本借入日元，兑换成美元购买美债，从中获取稳定收益。这种金融 ...

这篇国际评论，主要来分析下在美国降息日本加息的复杂经济环境下，对中国老百姓来讲，钱应该放在哪里比较保险？ 2025年末的全球金融市场，正被一场罕见的"政策对弈"搅动——日本央行终结十余年负利率，将政策利率上调25个基点；美联储则开启降息周期，联邦基金 利率下调25个基点。 一紧一松的背后，是全球资本的大迁徙，更直接关系到普通人的股票、存款与钱包。 这场变局的根源，藏在两国截然不同的经济困境里 日本加息绝非心血来潮，长期负利率让日元成了全球最廉价的"钱袋子"，借1亿日元年利息仅数万日元，催生出规模高达9.3万亿至20万亿美元的"日元套利 交易"。 从掌握家庭财权的"渡边太太"到巴菲特这样的巨头，都靠借入日元投资海外资产牟利。 但日元贬值至157的低位，后续据传已经开始慢慢走强，但形势也不容乐观，让输入性通胀压垮了日本民生，10年期国债收益率升至1.970%的压力，最终迫 使央行按下加息键。 美国的降息则是"预防式救市"，2025年8月非农就业仅新增2.2万人，失业率升至4.3%的五年新高，职位空缺跌至52个月最低。尽管通胀仍略高于2%目标， 但美联储判断这是关税冲击的短期现象，为防就业市场恶化，选择小步降息支撑 ...

12月8日，在展望日本央行（BOJ）即将进行的加息之际，市场再度掀起有关"日元大幅走强、套利交易 崩盘、比特币承压"的讨论。然而，从Moneta Markets外汇的角度来看，这类担忧更多源于对市场结构 的误读。Moneta Markets外汇表示，当前投机者对日元依然维持净多头配置，这事实上限制了日元出现 突发性急升、并引发大规模套利交易平仓的空间。同时，多数与加息相关的冲击早已反映在日本债券收 益率上，真正需要警惕的或许另有所在。 综合来看，BOJ的加息确实可能带来波动，但大概率不会重演2025年8月的极端情景。投机者仓位、收 益率结构以及利差环境都表明市场已经提前为此做好准备，Moneta Markets外汇认为后续调整将趋于渐 进式，而非断崖式冲击。 经典套利交易与市场情绪的背景 要理解这一轮担忧，必须先回顾日元套利交易如何在过去数十年影响全球市场。 所谓日元套利交易，是指投资者以极低的融资成本借入日元，再将资金投入高收益资产，由于长期低利 率环境存在，投资者常将资金配置到美股科技板块或美国国债等资产中。正如Schwab曾表示，"做多科 技、做空日元"一度成为全球投资者的经典组合。随着BOJ被认为将结 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 12月8日，上周伦敦现货黄金冲高回落，周度下跌0.77%至4196.78美元/盎司。本周将迎来超级央行周， 除了美联储外，还有加拿大、澳大利亚、瑞士等央行召开利率决议。北京时间12月11日凌晨3点，美联 储将公布12月利率决议，除了关注是否降息25个基点之外，美联储主席讲话、最新季度经济预测、内部 博弈情况也是市场聚集看点。黄金日内短线或有较大波动。 宏观数据方面，美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅，劳动力市场一度显现 疲软迹象，但截至11月29日当周首申失业金人数减少2.7万人至19.1万，显著低于市场预期的22万及前值 21.6万，显示企业裁员意愿有限，挽救了市场对于就业市场的看法。另外，美国11月份ISM服务业PMI 指数升至52.6，创九个月来新高，预期52.0，服务业指数受到供应商交付时间延长以及商业活动进一步 改善的支撑。 上周，美国总统暗示下一任美联储主席是哈塞特，市场认为若哈塞特当选，将强化对鸽派押注，但货币 刺激与通胀如何平衡则面临挑战。还有需要注意的是，据路透社报道称，日本央行或将把政策利率 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to a rapid adjustment of policy interest rates to a neutral level and a restructuring of the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] - The market anticipates that if Hassett is nominated and supported by Congress, he may lower the policy interest rate to around 2.5%, with the possibility of further reductions to 2% if economic or market instability arises [3][2] - There is a concern in the bond market regarding Hassett's potential dovish stance, which may lead to significant interest rate cuts and alignment with Trump's fiscal deficit policies, raising fears of extreme monetary decisions for political gain [2][3] Group 2 - The Japanese central bank has signaled a clearer intention to raise interest rates, with recent developments indicating a potential increase in December, as inflation in Japan reaches 3% compared to 2.9% in the U.S. [4][5] - The adjustment of Japan's policy interest rates is seen as necessary to align with international funding costs, especially given Japan's status as a net capital outflow country, which could impact global capital flows and asset prices [4][5] - The long-term effects of Japan's interest rate adjustments may lead to an increase in the attractiveness of Japanese savings rates, potentially repatriating funds that have been held overseas, which would benefit the yen and Japanese assets [5]

Economic Outlook - The U.S. stock market continues its rebound, supported by a series of economic data that maintain high expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week [1][9] - Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.3% month-on-month in September, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum due to a weak labor market and rising living costs [3][12] - The core PCE price index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.8% year-on-year, the highest since April 2024, reflecting inflationary pressures [3][12] Labor Market Insights - Initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level in over three years, alleviating concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labor market [3][12] - The ADP employment report showed the largest decline in private sector employment in two and a half years, indicating mixed signals in the job market [3][12] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer pessimism has slightly eased, attributed to improved expectations for the economic outlook, although evaluations of the durable goods purchasing environment remain at historical lows [4][13] - Actual disposable income is expected to rebound quickly, potentially driving consumer spending growth of over 2% in 2026 [4][13] Federal Reserve Expectations - The market anticipates an 87.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its upcoming meeting [5][13] - The Federal Reserve's focus on the weak labor market and moderate inflation pressures may reinforce the rationale for a rate cut [5][14] Market Volatility - The stock market indices recorded gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.5%, Nasdaq up 0.9%, and S&P 500 up 0.3%, as expectations for a rate cut grew [6][15] - The energy and technology sectors led the gains, while utilities and healthcare sectors experienced declines [6][15] Oracle's Earnings Impact - Oracle's upcoming earnings report is seen as a potential catalyst for market sentiment, particularly in the AI sector, amid concerns over excessive investment and rising debt levels [8][17] - The performance of Oracle could either alleviate or exacerbate investor concerns regarding AI spending, influencing overall market sentiment [8][17]