Core Viewpoint - The fluctuating exchange rate of the Japanese yen is influenced by the inconsistent statements from the Trump administration regarding tariffs and currency, leading to market participants avoiding directional trading [2][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - Since April, the yen has been oscillating between 140 to 150 yen per dollar, lacking a clear direction due to the mixed signals from the Trump administration on tariffs and currency policy [2]. - The yen appreciated significantly from nearly 160 yen per dollar at the beginning of the year to around 140 yen by April, marking an increase of approximately 20 yen [4]. - As of late May, speculative positions in yen against the dollar had reached historical highs but began to decrease, returning to levels seen in early April [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculative Behavior - Concerns over the outflow of U.S. investment funds have intensified, particularly in response to fears that the Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies could harm the U.S. economy [2]. - The Trump administration's recent softening stance on tariffs, especially in negotiations with China and the EU, has contributed to the volatility in the yen's exchange rate [2][4]. - The upcoming expiration of the suspension of certain tariffs in early July raises questions about future negotiations and their potential impact on the yen's direction [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If the Trump administration continues to weaken its stance on tariffs and the strong dollar, the yen may remain directionless and stuck in a range [6]. - Conversely, if tariff negotiations fail, there is a risk of a repeat of the "triple kill" scenario where stocks, bonds, and the dollar all face selling pressure, potentially leading to further chaos in the yen's exchange rate [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating exchange rate of the Japanese yen, influenced by the inconsistent tariff and currency policies of the Trump administration, leading to uncertainty in market direction [1][3][5]. Group 1: Yen Exchange Rate Trends - Since April, the yen has been oscillating between 140 to 150 yen per dollar, lacking a clear trend due to the mixed signals from the Trump administration regarding tariffs and currency [1][3]. - The yen appreciated significantly from nearly 160 yen per dollar in January to around 140 yen by April, marking an increase of approximately 20 yen [3]. - As of late May, speculative positions in yen against the dollar had reached historical highs but began to decrease, returning to levels seen in early April [4]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - Concerns over the potential negative impact of Trump's aggressive tariff policies on the U.S. economy have led to a sell-off in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and bonds, creating a "triple kill" scenario [3]. - The Trump administration has softened its stance on tariffs with major trading partners like China and the EU, which may influence the future direction of the yen [3][5]. - The upcoming expiration of the suspension of reciprocal tariff increases in early July raises questions about the progress of tariff negotiations and its potential impact on the yen [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Speculative Behavior - The market is highly sensitive to changes in Trump’s policies, which have affected speculative trading behaviors, particularly among hedge funds [3][4]. - The confirmation from U.S. and Japanese authorities that the current yen exchange rate reflects economic fundamentals may lead to a reduction in speculative positions [4]. - If tariff negotiations fail, there is a risk of renewed market turmoil, which could further destabilize the yen [5].

Group 1 - The US dollar has increased by 1% against the Swiss franc, reaching a daily high of 0.8320 [1] - The US dollar has risen by 1.5% against the Japanese yen, currently trading at 145.92 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, expresses the desire to hold talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen based on the existing exchange rate agreement, following Yellen's statement that the U.S. will not seek a specific yen exchange rate target [1] Group 1 - Kato Katsunobu aims to discuss exchange rate issues with U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen [1] - Yellen previously indicated that the U.S. does not have a specific target for the yen's exchange rate [1] - The upcoming meeting between the finance ministers is set to address exchange rate concerns [1] Group 2 - President Trump had previously complained about the weak yen benefiting Japan in trade, leading to speculation about potential U.S. pressure for yen appreciation [1]

据消息人士透露，日本财政大臣加藤胜信本周在华盛顿会见美国财长贝森特时，日元汇率问题正成为讨 论的主要议题，尽管消息人士称东京将抵制任何要求提振日元的请求。 据三位了解谈判情况的消息人士透露，虽然一些分析师猜测华盛顿将向东京施压，要求其帮助提振日 元，但日本认为通过外汇干预或央行立即加息等直接行动来影响汇率的空间很小。 消息人士称，相反，日本政策制定者希望更好地了解美国在汇率问题上的想法，以及这些想法如何融入 两国为达成贸易协议将要谈判的一系列措施中。 这意味着加藤与贝森特之间的会晤（这将是他们首次面对面会谈）可能达不到一些市场参与者对于出台 旨在提振日元的大规模协调措施的期望。 分析师表示，为回应美国要求而加息，也将削弱日本央行制定货币政策的独立性，并损害央行的信誉。 一位消息人士在谈到日本关于预计举行的加藤和贝森特会晤的策略时表示："（日本）很大程度上将是 探听华盛顿的意图。" 二者的会晤将在国际货币基金组织华盛顿春季会议期间举行。 加藤周二告诉记者，两国仍在安排会晤日期。日本政策制定者表示，他们尚未收到美国关于货币政策的 任何具体要求。 美国上一次主要向日本施压要求其加强日元是在1985年，当时华盛顿在广 ...