Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a mixed performance with over 2,700 stocks rising, while major indices saw declines, indicating a structural market driven by policy and industry trends [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% to 4,065.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.73% [1] - In contrast, the North China 50 Index rose by 0.9% [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North exchanges was approximately 2.16 trillion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as tourism, liquor, military, retail, and semiconductors experienced declines [1] - Conversely, sectors including oil, chemical fiber, chemicals, electricity, and pharmaceuticals saw gains [1] - Active themes included disperse dyes, solid-state batteries, and ultra-high voltage concepts [1] Investment Outlook - Debon Securities suggests that the spring market trend is likely to continue, with a structural market driven by "policy catalysis + industry trends" [1] - The long-term outlook remains a slow bull market, with recommendations to focus on solar energy (space solar, HJT technology), commercial aerospace (satellite manufacturing, computing services), and non-ferrous metals (gold, silver, copper, aluminum) [1] - Additionally, attention should be paid to consumer trends and policy catalysts [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising value of non-ferrous metals, driven by multiple favorable factors including supply-side contraction policies, new demand dynamics, economic cycle resonance, global deflation expectations, and concerns over dollar credit risks [1][2] - The non-ferrous metal ETF Tianhong (159157) saw a significant inflow of over 230 million shares on its first trading day, indicating strong market interest and a high turnover rate of 22.95% [1] - Morgan Stanley noted a potential exacerbation of supply-demand mismatches in the copper market, while domestic copper inventories are beginning to deplete, and downstream operating rates are recovering [1] Group 2 - Zhongtai Securities emphasized the strategic nature of non-ferrous metals amid geopolitical tensions, with rising technology stocks reinforcing demand expectations [2] - Various metals are experiencing a rotational upward trend, with minor metals showing particularly strong performance, reflecting a resonance between macro sentiment and industrial fundamentals [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, issued a growth stabilization plan for the non-ferrous metal industry last year, setting a positive tone for industry development [1]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, under the backdrop of global market recovery and active performance of the Chinese stock market, HaiFutong Fund's research and investment team delivered impressive results, with its actively managed equity funds ranking in the top 10% of the industry over the past seven years [1] Group 1: Performance of Equity Funds - HaiFutong Fund's equity funds achieved outstanding returns in 2025, particularly in the technology sector, with the HaiFutong Stock Mixed Fund managed by Lv Yuechao yielding 88.72%, significantly outperforming its benchmark of 17.37% and ranking in the top 4% of its category [2] - The HaiFutong Technology Innovation Mixed Fund also performed well, achieving a return of 88.11% against a benchmark of 41.03%, placing it in the top 4% [2][3] - The HaiFutong Small and Medium Cap Mixed Fund, managed by Fan Tingfang, recorded a return of 62.83%, surpassing its benchmark of 21.69% and ranking in the top 11% [3] Group 2: Balanced Investment Strategy - In a volatile market, balanced allocation is highlighted as a reliable path for sustainable long-term returns, with the HaiFutong Yield Growth Mixed Fund achieving a return of 46.69% against a benchmark of 9.04%, ranking in the top 11% [4] - The HaiFutong Reform Driven Mixed Fund also showed strong performance with a return of 58.94%, ranking in the top 12% [5] - The HaiFutong National Policy Guidance Mixed Fund demonstrated stable long-term returns, achieving a return of 25.10% in 2025, outperforming its benchmark of 17.37% [6] Group 3: Thematic Investment Focus - HaiFutong Fund has developed several high-performing thematic products, including the HaiFutong Consumption Preferred Mixed Fund, which achieved a return of 78.63% against a benchmark of -1.82%, ranking first in its category [7] - The HaiFutong Electronic Information Media Industry Stock Fund, focusing on TMT sectors, recorded a return of 87.96%, ranking fourth among its peers [8] - The HaiFutong Carbon Neutrality Theme Mixed Fund, managed by Fan Tingfang, achieved a return of 59.15%, ranking seventh in its category [8] Group 4: Long-term Investment Philosophy - The impressive performance of HaiFutong Fund's products is attributed to its diversified strategy, deep research capabilities, and long-term investment spirit, with a commitment to prioritizing investor interests [9]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed up by 0.14% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.74% [1] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow exceeding 24.9 billion HKD [1] Group 2 - Strong performance observed in sectors such as new energy vehicles, aviation, telecommunications, biomedicine, domestic banks, and logistics [1] - Weak performance noted in sectors including non-ferrous metals, commercial aerospace, optical communications, semiconductors, and photovoltaic solar energy [1]

从板块与行业结构看，市场内部存在清晰的分化。成长风格与主题投资成为反弹先锋。在板块题材上，光伏产业链（包括光伏精选、TOPCon电池、BC电池 等）、AI硬件相关概念（如光电路交换）、稀土，以及受事件催化的"太空光伏"等板块涨幅靠前。 作者 胡群 在连续两个交易日的深度调整之后，A股市场于2月3日展开了强劲反弹。截至收盘，上证指数上涨1.29%，收复4067点；深证成指大幅攀升2.19%；创业板指 上涨1.86%。尤为引人注目的是，北证50指数强势上涨3.27%，显示出中小市值板块的活跃态势。全市场呈现普涨格局，沪深京三市超过4800只个股收涨， 上涨比例超过90%。 市场成交额维持在25658亿元的高位水平，虽然较前一交易日小幅缩减411亿元，但整体交投依然活跃。从板块表现来看，成长风格占据绝对主导，AI硬 件、光伏、国防军工等板块涨幅居前，成为推动指数上行的核心动力。与此形成鲜明对比的是，银行、保险等金融权重板块逆势走低。这种结构性分化，反 映出当前市场资金在风险偏好回升的同时，对权重蓝筹仍保持谨慎态度。 免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者本人，供参考、交流，不构成任何建议。 指数全天的运行轨迹勾勒出多空双方的 ...

上海期货价格走势：今日铸造铝合金主力月2603合约震荡暴挫，午后触及跌停，截止当日15：00收盘， 铸造铝主力合约报21840元，跌1645元，跌幅7.00%，全天成交量17265手减少19199手；持仓量5394手 减少1245手。 据长江有色金属网数据统计，2月2日长江现货数据显示，铸造铝合金锭(A356.2)报价25600-26000元/ 吨，均价报25800元/吨，跌800元；铸造铝合金锭(A380）报价24900-25100元/吨，均价报25000元/吨， 跌600元；铝合金ADC12报价23400-23600元/吨，均价报23500元/吨，跌600元；铸造铝合金锭(ZL102)报 价25100-25300元/吨，均价报25200元/吨，跌800元；铸造铝合金锭(ZLD104)报价25000-25200元/吨，均 价报25700元/吨，跌800元； 综合来看，铸造铝供需基本面整体变化不大，本轮价格下跌主要受宏观因素扰动及资金情绪主导，预计 短期内铸造铝价格将维持高位回调态势。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ccmn铸造铝 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, lead prices showed a fluctuating trend, mainly between 16,850 - 17,860 yuan. In February, lead is likely to have a weak - side oscillation, with a wide - range pattern remaining unchanged, and the fluctuation range is expected to be mainly between 16,500 - 17,600 yuan. The Shanghai lead trend is less affected by macro resonance compared to other varieties, and there may be a supply - demand mismatch and inventory accumulation around holidays. Overseas, changes in the export end should be noted [3]. - Macro factors have an impact on the non - ferrous metal market. The long - term demand for non - ferrous metals is boosted by factors such as technology, AI, and energy transformation. The Fed still has room for interest rate cuts in 2026, and China maintains a moderately loose monetary policy. The dollar index is expected to be weakly volatile, which may boost the attractiveness of metals. However, the new Fed chairman's policy combination has brought short - term pressure on metals [17]. - The supply and demand of lead are both weak. On the supply side, the supply of lead - rich silver lead ore is tight, the processing fee has declined, and the by - product benefits are considerable. The supply of primary lead is restricted by the ore supply, and the supply of recycled lead is supported by the high price of waste batteries and affected by winter environmental protection. On the demand side, due to the low finished product orders, lead battery enterprises have high finished product inventories, and their stockpiling of lead ingots is limited, resulting in a light trading volume in the lead spot market [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Market Review - **Lead Futures Trend Review**: In January 2026, most of the time, the Shanghai lead fluctuated within the range of 16,850 - 17,860 yuan/ton. The raw materials were relatively strong, which limited the downward space of lead prices. The center of lead prices once rebounded due to the resonance of non - ferrous metals, but the demand was weak, and the price rose weakly and then fell [8]. - **Lead Spot Basis**: In January 2026, the basis mainly fluctuated between 0 and - 200, showing a weakening trend, with the futures being stronger than the spot [11]. 3.2 Second Part: Macro Analysis - **Macro - factors Affecting Non - ferrous Metals**: Technology, AI, and energy transformation boost the long - term demand for non - ferrous metals. The Fed has room for interest rate cuts in 2026, and China maintains a moderately loose monetary policy. The dollar index is expected to be weakly volatile, which may boost the attractiveness of metals. However, the new Fed chairman's "balance - sheet reduction + interest rate cut" policy combination has brought short - term pressure on non - ferrous metals [17]. - **Future Focus**: The rhythm of interest rate cuts and geopolitical impacts will continue to have a strong impact on the non - ferrous metal sector. China's policies are favorable, but the overseas trade disputes faced by lead still exist, which will continue to have an adverse impact on exports [21]. 3.3 Third Part: Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Raw Material End - **Lead Ore Supply**: In 2025, the global lead ore production was 457 million tons (metal content), with a year - on - year increase of only 0.7%. In 2026, it is expected to reach 467 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. China's lead ore production increased in 2025, with a cumulative production of 117.77 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% according to the National Bureau of Statistics [27][32]. - **Lead Ore Import**: In 2025, the lead ore import volume was 1,419,824.94 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.05%. The import window was occasionally opened, and the import of lead concentrates turned profitable [35]. - **Lead Ore Processing Fee**: The processing fee of high - silver lead concentrates has declined. In 2025, the processing fee showed a short - term rebound but weakened further in the second half of the year and continued into 2026. The by - product income has become the main source of smelter income, but the profit space of smelters is still restricted [39]. 3.3.2 Supply End - **Refined Lead Production**: In 2025, the production of primary lead increased, with a total output of 385.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.6%. In January 2026, the output is expected to increase slightly, but the actual output may be light due to environmental protection and profit issues. The output of recycled lead is expected to decline after reaching a high at the end of 2025 [42][45]. - **Total Lead Supply**: According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2025, the total lead output was 774.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [52]. 3.3.3 Import - Export - **Refined Lead Net Import**: China has become a net importer of refined lead since 2024. In 2025, the cumulative net import was positive, with an import volume of 44,452.67 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.71%, and an export volume of 35,982.28 tons, a year - on - year increase of 63.60% [56]. 3.3.4 Inventory - **Refined Lead Inventory**: Since 2023, the LME lead inventory has increased significantly from a historical low, while the domestic inventory has fluctuated and recovered but is still at a relatively low level. As of the end of January 2026, the LME lead inventory was 205,575 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.18%, and the Shanghai lead inventory was 30,584 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.33% [59]. 3.3.5 Demand End - **Lead Battery**: In 2025, the domestic demand for lead batteries was strong under policy support, but the export declined due to anti - dumping by GCC countries. Since 2025, the export of lead batteries has shown negative growth, with a cumulative export volume of 219 million units in 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 12.79% [62]. - **Automobile**: In 2025, the production and sales of automobiles reached new highs, with new energy vehicles becoming the dominant force in the market [66]. - **New - standard Electric Bicycle**: The sales of new - standard electric bicycles at the beginning of 2026 were weak. Although the replacement of over - standard electric bicycles and the "trade - in" policy have boosted sales, the impact of lithium - battery replacement cannot be ignored [70]. - **Motorcycle**: In 2025, the production and sales of motorcycles increased, and the export also showed a significant growth trend [73]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Supply - Demand Balance - **Global Refined Lead**: According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), in 2025, the global refined lead market had a surplus of 91,000 tons, and it is expected to increase to 102,000 tons in 2026 [81]. - **Domestic Refined Lead**: It is expected that the domestic refined lead will have a small surplus in 2026 [82]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Seasonal and Technical Analysis - **LME Lead Position Structure**: The current LME lead position structure is slightly bullish for lead prices [87]. - **Lead Seasonal Trend**: The seasonal trend of lead is related to the demand cycle. The months with a high probability of decline are March, September, November, and December, while the months with a high probability of increase are January, June, July, and August. However, lead prices declined in January in both 2025 and 2026, and there is a possibility of an opposite trend in February [88]. - **Lead Technical Analysis**: The Shanghai lead has maintained a wide - range oscillation pattern for a long time. In January 2026, it rose and then fell, and the support level is expected to be at 16,500 - 16,600, with the upper pressure level at 17,800 - 18,000. The oscillation pattern is expected to continue [92]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - **Conclusion**: In February 2026, the supply and demand of lead are expected to be weak, and there may be a supply - demand mismatch and inventory accumulation around holidays. Lead is likely to have a weak - side oscillation, mainly fluctuating between 16,500 - 17,600 yuan [95]. - **Operation Suggestions**: During the oscillation period, enterprises should purchase on demand and avoid excessive inventory. If the price drops significantly and is fully adjusted, they can consider buying hedging. In the case of low volatility, they can consider selling out - of - the - money options to collect option premiums [95].

Group 1 - The ChiNext index has turned downward, indicating a negative trend in the market [1] - Key sectors experiencing significant declines include precious metals, non-ferrous metals, coal, and semiconductors [1]

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 2026年2月2日，西部矿业（sh601168）触及跌停，跌停价35.6元，涨幅-8.03%，总市值780.19亿元，流 通市值780.19亿元，截止发稿，总成交额12.41亿元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 根据喜娜AI异动分析，西部矿业跌停原因可能如下，关联交易大+业务亏损+高管变动： 1、公司自身经 营风险：西部矿业关联交易规模较大，2026年预计日常关联交易达53.92亿元，同比增长14.36%，这可 能影响公司财务独立性和业绩真实性。部分业务板块存在盈利压力，铅冶炼业务持续亏损，原料紧缺叠 加回收率不达标，短期难见改善，拖累公司整体盈利水平。 2、行业及市场环境影响：有色金属行业受 宏观经济、供需关 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Copper prices soared and then fell back. In the short - term, panic sentiment still has a suppressing effect, but the long - term outlook is not pessimistic. The copper market is expected to gradually stabilize. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai copper contract this week is 99,000 - 108,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12,600 - 13,800 US dollars/ton [13] Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: After copper prices soared and fell back, the weekly starting rate of copper primary enterprises rebounded slightly, and the spot market transactions first declined and then rose. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed, the scrap copper substitution was still low, and the processing rate of recycled copper rods remained low [11]. - **Supply**: The spot processing fee for copper concentrates continued to decline, while the processing fee for blister copper increased month - on - month. Some copper mines faced production problems such as grade decline and strikes [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 230,000 tons to 9.3 million tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 70,000 tons to 2.33 million tons, LME inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 1.75 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 110,000 tons to 5.22 million tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area decreased by 80,000 tons to 990,000 tons. The spot copper in East China was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the futures on Friday, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 89.9 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Import and Export**: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium decreased. In December 2025, China's refined copper imports were 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Copper prices soared and then fell back. The main Shanghai copper contract rose 2.31% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 0.44% to 13,070.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Price**: Provided the spot prices of electrolytic copper, copper products and recycled copper in different regions and time periods, and the price differences between them [24]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper spot was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the futures in East China on Friday. The LME inventory increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased, and Cash/3M remained at a discount, reporting a discount of 89.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium rebounded [29]. - **Structure**: Both Shanghai copper and LME copper maintained a Contango structure [32]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrates continued to decline to - 49.8 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China rebounded, which still made a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [37]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB first appreciated and then depreciated, and the spot Shanghai - LME ratio of copper fluctuated [40]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The loss of copper spot imports narrowed [43]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 230,000 tons to 9.3 million tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area decreased by 80,000 tons to 990,000 tons. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai and Jiangsu, and the inventory in Guangdong decreased slightly. The number of copper warrants increased by 10,058 to 156,851 tons. The increase in LME inventory came from Asian and North American warehouses, European inventory decreased, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased [46][49][52]. 4. Supply Side - **Production**: In January 2026, China's refined copper production increased by about 10,000 tons month - on - month, higher than expected. It is expected that the production in February will decline month - on - month but maintain a high year - on - year growth. In December 2025, the refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the cumulative production for the whole year was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [56]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January to December were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 21.96%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. The import of anode copper was 61,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. The import of refined copper was 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. The export of refined copper was 96,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons. The import of recycled copper was 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.83% and a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.342 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [59][62][65][71][74]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the main consumption areas of electrolytic copper are power (46%), home appliances (15%), etc. In China, they are construction (26%), equipment (23%), etc [78]. - **PMI**: China's official manufacturing PMI in January decreased to 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. In December 2025, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was divided [81]. - **Downstream Industry Output**: In December, the year - on - year output of freezers, household refrigerators and power generation equipment increased, while that of automobiles, washing machines, air conditioners, color TVs and AC motors decreased. From January to December, the cumulative output of automobiles, air conditioners, household washing machines, household refrigerators and power generation equipment increased, while that of freezers, color TVs and AC motors decreased [84]. - **Real Estate Data**: In December, domestic real estate data continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales and completion all decreasing year - on - year. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline [86]. - **Downstream Enterprise Starting Rate**: The starting rate of some downstream enterprises showed different trends of rise and fall in December, and different expected trends in January. This week, the starting rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased slowly, the starting rate of recycled copper rod production increased slightly but remained at a low level, the starting rate of wire and cable warmed up, and the starting rate of copper strip increased slightly [89][92][95][98][101][104]. - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference widened compared with last week, reporting 3,630 yuan/ton on Friday [109]. 6. Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of Shanghai copper decreased by 1,408 to 1,315,078 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2602 contract was 87,404 lots (bilateral) [114]. - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of January 27, the CFTC fund position remained net long, but the net long ratio declined to 15.7%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds decreased (as of January 23) [117].