Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The demand side of ethylene glycol (EG) has changed little. Polyester demand is expected to remain around 91% in November and weaken seasonally from December. Recently, there have been many unexpected incidents in the supply - side devices, and the subsequent inventory accumulation slope has eased. Against the background of the strong trend of thermal coal, the cost - side support has strengthened, making it difficult for the price to break below 3900. However, in the long run, the slowdown and delay of inventory accumulation are just rhythm issues, and the pattern of valuation pressure under the expectation of supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse. The operation idea of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. If the valuation continues to compress, there will be strong supply - side support around 3700. For the 01 contract, below 3900, short positions can be closed and call options can be sold instead [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range of ethylene glycol is predicted to be 3750 - 4200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.19% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.4%. For PX, it is 6300 - 7100, 14.65%, and 37.0% respectively; for PTA, 4300 - 4900, 13.86%, and 23.8%; for bottle chips, 5400 - 6000, 10.84%, and 27.6% [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is concern about the decline of ethylene glycol prices, for the long - position spot exposure, one can short EG2601 futures to lock in profits (25% hedging ratio, entry range 4000 - 4100). One can also buy EG2601P3800 put options to prevent price drops and sell EG2601C4050 call options to reduce capital costs (50% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 80) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and one hopes to purchase according to order situations, for the short - position spot exposure, one can buy EG2601 futures to lock in procurement costs (50% hedging ratio, entry range 3800 - 3900). One can also sell EG2601P3800 put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops (75% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 80) [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - The demand for polyester is expected to remain stable in November and weaken seasonally from December. The supply - side device incidents have eased the inventory accumulation slope, and the cost - side support has strengthened. But in the long run, the supply - demand surplus situation remains, and the operation strategy is to short on rallies. The price is expected to get strong support around 3700. For the 01 contract, short positions can be closed and call options can be sold below 3900 [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - There have been many unexpected shutdowns of ethylene glycol devices at home and abroad recently. In China, Guangxi Huayi (200,000 tons), Hongsifang (300,000 tons), and Sinochem Quanzhou (500,000 tons, rumored) have shut down, with a total loss of 1 million tons of production capacity. Abroad, a 750,000 - ton/year MEG device in Malaysia has been shut down since late September and will continue until 2027, and a 900,000 - ton/year EG device in Singapore has postponed its restart [4][6]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - An 830,000 - ton/year MEG new device in South China plans to start trial production with ethylene feedstock in early November, and part of the production will be available in the market. The original planned production time was the first quarter of 2026, and now it is advanced, which will bring a small additional supply increment in December [7]. Market Data - **Price Data**: On November 19, 2025, the prices of various polyester - related products and their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week are provided, including Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, EG, etc. For example, the EG01 contract price was 3903 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day and up 12 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different contracts and the changes in basis, month - to - month spreads, and processing fees are also presented. For example, the TA1 - 5 month spread was - 62 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 6 yuan and a weekly change of 0 yuan [8][9]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of warehouse receipts for PTA, MEG, and PX and their changes are given. For example, the number of PTA warehouse receipts was 111,696, unchanged from the previous day and up 13,246 from the previous week [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The decline in spot prices has led to a weakening of the futures market. The log port inventory as of November 7th was 2.93 million cubic meters (+5), with a daily average outbound volume of 66,300 cubic meters per day (+3,500), maintaining resilience. The prices of certain log specifications in the spot market have decreased this week. The impact of the opening of US log imports on the futures market is relatively small. The lg2601 contract showed a weekly increase of 1.28% and remained in a low - volatility oscillation state this week, while the lg2603 contract rose 0.38% with a position of only 4,000 lots. There is an opportunity to short the 01 - 03 spread in the long - term [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 780 - 830, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [1]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price declines, enterprises with long spot exposure can short log futures (lg2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 810 - 820 [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on order situations, enterprises with short spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 740 - 750 [1]. Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: lg2601 closed at 775.5 (-11) with a position of 17,000 lots, and lg2603 closed at 791.5 (-5) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price decreased this week. For example, the market price of 5.9 - meter medium A logs in Lanshan area was 770 (-10) [4]. - **Valuation**: The warehouse receipt cost is approximately 811 yuan per cubic meter in the Yangtze River Delta and 803 yuan per cubic meter in Shandong [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 7th, the national inventory was 2.93 million cubic meters (+5) [4]. Core Contradictions - The decline in spot prices has led to a weakening of the futures market. The log port inventory is increasing, and the daily average outbound volume remains resilient. The prices of certain log specifications in the spot market have decreased, and the impact of the opening of US log imports on the futures market is relatively small [5]. Strategies - Short at high prices. - Pay attention to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity in the long - term. - Short the lg2601 - C - 800 position at high prices [7]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The inventory is relatively low [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The emergence of domestic deliverable log products; the reduced willingness of buyers to accept deliverable products at non - mainstream delivery warehouses; the decline in spot prices and weak market demand [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tibet Summit Resources (600338.SH), is actively engaged in futures hedging to manage price volatility risks associated with its main products, which include lead concentrate (containing silver), zinc concentrate, and a small amount of copper concentrate [2]. Group 1: Business Operations - The company and its subsidiaries conduct futures hedging not for arbitrage or speculation, but to hedge against price fluctuations of self-produced commodities [2]. - The company will closely monitor the price differences between futures and spot markets for non-ferrous metals and will cautiously select hedging tools to effectively manage price volatility risks [2]. Group 2: Market Context - Recent trends indicate that the prices of non-ferrous metals such as lead, zinc, silver, and copper have been rising [2].

化工日报 | 2025-11-14 EG高供应，本周主港延续累库 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3892元/吨（较前一交易日变动+1元/吨，幅度+0.03%），EG华东市场现货价 3943元/吨（较前一交易日变动-22元/吨，幅度-0.55%），EG华东现货基差59元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-62美元/吨（环比-1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-987 元/吨（环比-38元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为66.1万吨（环比+9.9万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.8万吨（环比+5.4万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数14.6万吨，副 港到港量6.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数18.1万吨，副港到港量4.7万吨，本周到港计划较多，预计将再度累 库。隆众口径周四较周一累库1.3万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限， 11月中旬附近乙二醇到港计划依旧呈现中性偏多，港口库存预计逐步回升 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongda Co., Ltd. utilizes futures hedging to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations on production costs, primarily relying on copper and aluminum as key raw materials [1] Group 1 - The company responded to investor inquiries on November 6 regarding its approach to raw material price volatility [1] - The main raw materials for the company's products are copper and aluminum [1] - The company typically employs futures hedging strategies to smooth out the effects of raw material price fluctuations on production costs [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory remains high, and the arrival pressure in November is still significant. The overseas supply pressure is large as Iran has not announced winter inspections. Attention should be paid to the implementation progress of the December Fude maintenance plan and the opening of the window for methanol to flow back to the mainland as port prices fall [3] - The mainland inventory is continuously accumulating. Mainstream CTO enterprises have started to show purchasing intentions at low prices. The coal - based methanol start - up rate has further increased in November, and the mainland inventory has been rebuilt from a low level. The demand from mainland MTO has declined, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. The mainland is also in an inventory accumulation cycle, and the degree of support for the port remains to be observed [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - term structure, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) compared with the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][27] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - The report includes figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated ones), mainland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated ones) [6][35][36] 4. Regional Price Differences - There are figures showing regional price differences, such as the price differences between Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][40][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures present the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][53][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core Views - The outer - market US soybeans are mainly driven by export demand under the context of China - US negotiations. With the expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in, the ending inventory remains at around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range moves up slightly. There is limited upward drive due to the smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans. The inner - market soybean meal's rebound is limited by the high near - month inventory. Buying US soybeans will bring a downward drive for the far - month, but the cost support moves up during the outer - market rebound, so the decline is also limited. The inner - market rapeseed meal is affected by China - Canada negotiations. It shows slightly stronger in the short - term due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month, but chasing long is not advisable. The timing of going long after November depends on subsequent warrant changes [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price prediction for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.3% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.2%. For rapeseed meal, it is 2250 - 2750, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.9% [3] - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about high imports and low prices can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3] Core Contradictions - Outer - market US soybeans are export - demand - driven. Inner - market soybean meal's rebound is limited by high near - month inventory, and buying US soybeans will affect far - month prices. Inner - market rapeseed meal is affected by China - Canada negotiations and warrant cancellation [4] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. The outer - market strengthens continuously when buying US soybeans. The pressure on the near - month contract is relieved as it enters the warrant cancellation month [5][6] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - The current near - month supply shows high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, and soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation. The smooth planting in Brazil and the repair of the far - month supply gap under China - US negotiations are negative factors [6][9] Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3021, up 27 (0.9%); soybean meal 05 is 2813, up 14 (0.5%); soybean meal 09 is 2930, up 12 (0.41%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2388, down 13 (- 0.54%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2342, up 7 (0.3%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2432, up 3 (0.12%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1115, up 8 (0.72%); the offshore RMB is 7.122, up 0.0089 (0.13%) [7][10] Price Spreads - For soybean meal, M01 - 05 spread is 208, up 13; M05 - 09 is - 117, up 2; M09 - 01 is - 91, down 15. For rapeseed meal, RM01 - 05 spread is 46, down 20; RM05 - 09 is - 90, up 4; RM09 - 01 is 44, up 16. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3020, up 20; the basis is - 1, down 7. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2450, unchanged; the basis is 62, up 13. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 570, up 20; the futures spread is 633, up 40 [11] Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4727.8317 yuan/ton, down 41.7099; the Brazilian soybean import cost is 4062.33 yuan/ton, up 20.17. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 852.6667 yuan/ton, down 41.7099; the Brazilian soybean import profit is - 43.7567 yuan/ton, down 15.4341. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 497 yuan/ton, down 92; in the spot market, it is 765 yuan/ton, down 92 [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The outer - market US soybeans are mainly driven by export demand under the background of China - US negotiations. The expectation of Chinese procurement of US soybeans will drive the rebound of US soybeans, but the rebound is limited without actual policies or orders. Brazil's soybean planting progress is improving, and there are no major yield issues for the new crop. The upward space of the inner - market soybean series is limited by high near - month inventory, but there is also support below. The inner - market rapeseed series should focus on China - Canada relations and is affected by supply restoration expectations and soybean meal [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - In the near - month, the high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, the increase in oil mill crushing volume, and the resumption of seasonal inventory accumulation of soybean meal are negative factors. The increase in warehouse receipt pressure and the expectation of China - US and China - Canada negotiations also put downward pressure on the meal market [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.1%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 18.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.2% [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to prevent inventory losses [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as CBOT yellow soybeans and the offshore RMB, are provided. For example, the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2932, down 1 with a 0.03% decline [7]. 3.4 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spread and Import Cost and Profit - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The import costs and profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, and the import profits of Canadian rapeseed are also given. For example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4430.9578 yuan/ton, up 19.2789 yuan/ton [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term spot liquidity is tightening due to fewer imported shipments and potential unloading issues. In the long - term, domestic and imported supplies are expected to increase, leading to a high - supply situation in the fourth quarter that downstream industries can't fully absorb, and the inventory build - up pattern is hard to change [4]. - **Styrene**: Supply is tightening as more units are under maintenance and the return of Jingbo's styrene is uncertain. However, terminal demand recovery after the National Day holiday is limited, and port inventory remains high. With new plants coming into operation, the de - stocking pressure is expected to increase. In the short term, one can short the spread between pure benzene and styrene when prices are high, and consider widening the processing spread after seeing significant unplanned styrene production cuts or an increase in pure benzene imports. Given the large macro - level disturbances, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for pure benzene is predicted to be 5200 - 5800 yuan/ton, and for styrene, it is 6200 - 6800 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over three years is 85.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For high product inventories and concerns about price drops, one can short styrene futures (EB2512) at 25% with an entry range of 6600 - 6650 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell call options (EB2512C6700) at 50% with an entry range of 70 - 90 to collect premiums and reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventories and the need to purchase based on orders, buy styrene futures (EB2512) at 50% with an entry range of 6350 - 6400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (EB2512P6400) at 75% with an entry range of 55 - 70 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term supply tightness due to import issues, but long - term high supply and difficult de - stocking due to insufficient downstream demand [4]. - **Styrene**: Supply reduction due to maintenance, but limited demand recovery and high port inventory. New plant startups will increase de - stocking pressure. Macro factors drive price increases, but the rebound is weaker than that of crude oil [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - In early October, South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China decreased to 4.7 tons, and some import cargoes faced unloading difficulties, tightening short - term spot liquidity [5]. - Dalian Hengli Petrochemical's 720,000 - ton styrene plant is planned to shut down for half a month starting in early November [7]. - US sanctions on Russian oil companies and geopolitical rumors in Venezuela have pushed up crude oil prices, strengthening the cost side [7]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - As of October 20, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 202,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period, indicating difficulty in reducing high inventory [8]. - The 600,000 - ton styrene plants of Guangxi Petrochemical and Jilin Petrochemical were put into production around October 18 and 19 respectively [8]. 3.5 Price and Spread Data - **Basis Changes**: The daily basis changes of pure benzene and styrene in different regions and contracts are provided, showing various trends [8]. - **Industry Chain Spreads**: The spreads between pure benzene and styrene in the industry chain, including spot, paper - based, and different contract months, are presented, along with their daily changes [9]. - **Price Data**: The prices of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain, such as crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene, are given for different dates, including daily and weekly changes [9][10].

Group 1: Market Participants - The market participants in the alumina futures market can be categorized into five main types: upstream production enterprises, downstream consumption enterprises, domestic and foreign traders, financial institutions and arbitrage funds, and individual and speculative funds [1][2]. Group 2: Upstream and Downstream Enterprises - Upstream production enterprises, such as alumina plants, use futures to hedge against price fluctuations of bauxite and their own products, thereby locking in sales profits [1]. - Downstream consumption enterprises, like electrolytic aluminum plants, utilize a combination of "alumina futures + electrolytic aluminum futures" to stabilize processing fees and profits [1]. Group 3: Trading and Financial Institutions - Domestic and foreign traders, along with spot traders and specialized futures companies, engage in both hedging and basis trading, providing liquidity to the market [1]. - Financial institutions and arbitrage funds, including futures company asset management, private equity funds, and chemical product arbitrage teams, primarily conduct cross-commodity, cross-month, or spot-futures arbitrage [1]. Group 4: Individual and Speculative Funds - The high volatility of alumina futures attracts a significant amount of intraday short-term and high-frequency speculative funds, which play an important role in price discovery [2]. Group 5: Delivery Details - The delivery unit for alumina futures is set at 300 tons (15 lots) in integer multiples, with dual-track delivery involving registered brands and warehouses/factories; individuals are not allowed to enter the delivery month [3]. - The quality standards are defined by the national standard GB/T 24487-2022 for AO-1 or AO-2 grades, with strict upper limits on impurities such as SiO, FeO, and NaO [3]. - The delivery settlement price is calculated as the arithmetic average of the settlement prices from the last five trading days with transactions [4].