Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the disparity between the soaring carbon lithium futures prices and the struggles faced by lithium mining companies, which are experiencing significant losses due to unfavorable market conditions [1][2][3] - Recent carbon lithium futures prices surged over 66% in the past two and a half months, yet many lithium mining companies are facing a "double loss" situation due to large discrepancies between futures and spot prices [1][2] - Companies like Jiangte Electric have reported significant losses exceeding 10 million RMB from commodity futures and derivative trading, indicating the financial strain on the industry [1] Group 2 - Major lithium mining companies, including Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, have engaged in futures hedging to mitigate risks associated with price volatility, but this strategy has not been effective due to the divergence between futures and spot prices [2][3] - The recent surge in futures prices was triggered by regulatory actions in Jiangxi, leading to production halts and heightened market speculation, although the overall supply remains structurally sufficient [3][4] - Several downstream manufacturers have announced production halts in response to rising raw material costs, reflecting the challenges in passing on increased costs to battery producers [3][4] Group 3 - The abnormal fluctuations in raw material prices are viewed as detrimental to industry development, prompting regulatory bodies to implement measures to stabilize the carbon lithium futures market [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Paper Pulp: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and logs, providing investment ratings and operational suggestions based on supply, demand, and inventory factors of each commodity [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise today, with stable overall spot sales. New cotton production increased this year, but commercial inventory was basically the same year - on - year, and the sales progress was fast, supporting the market. Demand remained stable in the off - season. As of December 18, domestic cotton processing reached 648.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 82.0 million tons. As of December 15, commercial inventory was 534.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.63 million tons. There were expectations of a decrease in Xinjiang's planting area next year. Spinning mills' raw material demand was resilient, and their finished product inventory was not high. Zhengzhou cotton showed a strong upward trend, and industries could consider hedging opportunities, with a strategy of buying on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, after the rainy season, rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas was low, which might lead to a decline in sugarcane yield next year. However, rainfall increased in December. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded. In November, Guangxi's sugar production progress was slow, and the output decreased year - on - year. In November, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 93,400 tons. In the short term, the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere limited the rebound of sugar prices. In the long term, there was a possibility of production reduction in major producing countries next year, and weather conditions should be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price was stable, and cold - storage transactions were few. Merchants mainly packed their own goods for the market and bought less from fruit farmers. As of December 19, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.127 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.78%. The de - stocking volume was 70,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.86%. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apple quality was poor, but the purchase price was high, and the reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers might affect the de - stocking speed. Currently, demand was in the off - season, and the overall demand decreased. The reluctance to sell also affected the sales speed, increasing the bearish sentiment in the market. The operation strategy was to maintain a bearish view [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU) and 20 - number rubber (NR) rose, while the futures price of butadiene rubber (BR) fell. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, the synthetic rubber spot price rose, the external butadiene port price rose, and the Thai raw material market price mostly fell. Globally, natural rubber supply was entering the low - production period, with Yunnan and Hainan in China and Vietnam gradually stopping production. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased significantly, with some plants under maintenance or low - load operation, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to decline. Last week, China's tire operating rate decreased slightly, and Shandong tire enterprises' finished product inventory continued to rise. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 515,200 tons, while the domestic butadiene port inventory increased significantly to 433,000 tons. The strategy was to expect a rebound in RU&NR and to wait and see for BR [5] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp prices fell today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space was restricted. As of December 18, 2025, the inventory of major Chinese paper pulp ports was 1.993 million tons, a decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. In November, China imported 3.246 million tons of paper pulp, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons. The new - year contracts, especially the 01 contract, faced less pressure from warehouse receipts. The narrowing price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp supported softwood pulp, and the external quotes of both increased recently. Paper mills' pulp purchases were mainly for刚需, and the increase in raw paper prices was relatively weak. The paper pulp market was highly competitive. The operation strategy was to wait and see [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price in Taicang increased by 10 yuan. The external quote decreased, and the domestic spot price was weak. The short - term arrival volume would decrease. As of December 19, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 63,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 2.17%. Although it was the off - season, the average daily outbound volume remained above 60,000 cubic meters, indicating fair demand. As of December 19, the total port log inventory was 2.6 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 4.41%. The low inventory supported the price, and the operation strategy was to wait and see [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PE, the supply is continuously abundant, the demand is in the off - season, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure from supply - demand contradiction, although the cost support has increased [3]. - For PP, the supply pressure is expected to be less than that of PE, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited, with the cost support increasing [4]. - The strategy suggests to cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices, to wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations, and to shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6296元/吨（+56），PP主力合约收盘价为6158元/吨（+39），LL华北现货为6200元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6370元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6120元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-96元/吨（-106），LL华东基差为74元/吨（-86），PP华东基差为-38元/吨（-69） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为-55.9元/吨（-117.5），PP油制生产利润为-545.9元/吨（-117.5），PDH制PP生产利润为-714.1元/吨（-84.3） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为-127.5元/吨（+4.3），PP进口利润为-271.6元/吨（-55.8），PP出口利润为-6.4美元/吨（+7.0） [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.3%） [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply remains high with limited planned maintenance at the end of the year and low maintenance in Q1 next year, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation. Demand enters the off - season with declining downstream开工率. Inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The cost support has increased, but the supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price [3]. - **PP**: Short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited changes. Supply is still under pressure, but there may be a slow reduction in supply due to potential production cuts. Demand has limited order follow - up, and only BOPP provides some support. Inventory is high. The cost support has increased, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices; wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy [5]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On Hold [7] - Options: Short Put [7] 2. Core View of the Report The December Fed FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and copper prices remained strong. The closing out of short hedging positions at the end of the year also pushed copper prices higher. However, these factors will gradually fade next week, so the continuous sharp rise of copper prices may slow down. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the suggested range between 90,500 yuan/ton and 91,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes On December 16, 2025, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 93,500 yuan/ton and closed at 91,920 yuan/ton, down 0.52% from the previous trading day's close. The overnight session opened at 92,210 yuan/ton and closed at 91,830 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at a discount of 180 - 70 yuan/ton to the next - month 2601 contract, with an average discount of 125 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 91,320 - 92,030 yuan/ton. Sellers were eager to sell, but buyers were reluctant to buy, leading to a continuous decline in spot premiums and light trading. After the 2512 contract was settled, spot is expected to remain at a large discount [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: In November, the US added 64,000 non - farm payrolls, higher than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. The average hourly wage increased by 3.5% year - on - year, the lowest since May 2021. The data strengthened the Fed's loose monetary policy path [3]. - **Economic Indicators**: The preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 51.8, a 5 - month low. The Services PMI dropped from 54.1 to 52.9, and the Composite PMI dropped to 53, all 6 - month lows [3]. - **Mine End**: Exploration company Kavango Resources started evaluating strategic options for its Kalahari copper belt interests in Botswana, including potential joint - venture partners. The review is in the early stage, and the outcome is uncertain. The company's copper assets in Botswana cover about 6,200 square kilometers, and early exploration results are encouraging [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 9.7% year - on - year to 1.103 million tons, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 2.5% month - on - month to 427,000 tons due to the narrowing price difference. The cumulative import of copper ore concentrates increased by 8% year - on - year to 27.614 million tons. Codelco's 2026 refined copper annual contract premium soared by 275% compared to 2025, driving spot purchases to non - US regions, and LME copper inventories dropped to a record low of 165,800 tons [5]. - **Consumption**: In November 2025, China's copper industry prosperity index was 39.7, down 2.0 points from the previous month, remaining in the "normal" range. The leading index was 73.4, down 2.1 points, and the coincident index was 74.3, down 3.6 points [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 166,600 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,558 tons to 45,784 tons. On December 16, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 164,500 tons, up 1,500 tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the suggested range between 90,500 yuan/ton and 91,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7]. - **Options**: Short put [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - This week, the LPG price was mainly affected by the weakening domestic fundamentals, with an increase in supply and a decrease in demand expectations, leading to a significant decline in the disk price. However, the price rebounded slightly on Friday night due to the influence of the SASAC's "anti - involution" policy, and the market volatility increased [2][6]. - In the short - term, the LPG market is expected to be in a volatile state, with the price range of PG01 predicted to be between 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton [16]. - In the long - term, the LPG market is affected by multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides. The supply pressure from the US is relatively large, while the demand in different regions shows different characteristics [13]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end: Crude oil was under the pressure of oversupply and geopolitical issues, and it oscillated weakly this week but remained within the oscillation range [1]. - Overseas market: It was relatively strong. US demand increased and inventory decreased, while Middle - East shipments remained at a low level. The FEI premium was $37.25, and the CP premium was $42 [1]. - Domestic fundamentals: They weakened slightly. The supply increased due to the rise in arrivals, and port inventory accumulated. On the demand side, although PDH started to operate at a higher rate due to the resumption of production in some enterprises, there were rumors of maintenance plans, and the demand expectation weakened. The number of warrants increased to 5476 this week [1][6]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: Oscillation, with the price range of PG01 at 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton [16]. - Basis strategy: Oscillation. The basis strengthened as the disk price fell from its high this week [16]. - Spread strategy: Reverse arbitrage (3 - 4) at high prices [16]. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Narrow the internal - external spread and widen the PP/PG ratio at low prices [16]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - LPG price range forecast: 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 23.00% and a historical percentage of 40.18% in the past 3 years [17]. - Hedging strategy: For inventory management, when inventory is high, short PG futures and sell call options; for procurement management, when inventory is low, buy PG futures and sell put options [17]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive factors: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the overseas market remained tight with high premiums [24]. - Negative factors: The number of warrants increased to 5476, and the PDH maintenance expectation increased [24]. 2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - On December 16, pay attention to the US unemployment rate; on December 18, pay attention to the US CPI year - on - year. Also, focus on the further implementation of high - energy - consumption project control [24]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement - The PG01 contract oscillated and declined this week. The net positions of major profitable seats decreased slightly, and the long positions of the top 5 in the order book decreased significantly, while the short positions of the top 5 remained unchanged. The net short positions of powerful seats decreased slightly, and the net long positions of foreign investors decreased slightly while those of retail investors increased slightly [21]. Basis and Spread Structure - The LPG term structure remained in a BACK structure this week, with the 1 - 2 spread at 84 yuan/ton (+5) [25]. - In the overseas market, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $19/ton (+6); the CP M1 - M2 spread was $9/ton (+4.5); the MB M1 - M2 spread was $2.9/ton (-3.25). FEI and CP were generally suitable for positive arbitrage [37]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis Upstream Profits - The gross profit of major refineries was 645 yuan/ton (+52), and that of Shandong independent refineries was 443 yuan/ton (-12). The profit fluctuations were not significant this week [42]. Downstream Profits - The PDH profit calculated by FEI was - 237 yuan/ton (+109), and that calculated by CP was - 553 yuan/ton (+16), indicating continuous losses. The MTBE gas - separation profit was - 63.75 yuan/ton (-1.25), the isomerization profit was - 188 yuan/ton (-138), and the alkylation oil profit was - 473 yuan/ton (-61) [44]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - US supply and demand: With the cooling weather, weekly demand improved significantly, but production was relatively high, and inventory decreased at a normal rate. From January to November, US LPG exports increased year - on - year, but the volume to China decreased [52][57]. - Middle - East supply: From January to November, Middle - East LPG exports increased year - on - year. Shipments were low in November due to high domestic demand [60]. - Indian supply and demand: From January to November, India's LPG demand and imports increased year - on - year. The second half of the year was the peak season, with high demand and imports [62]. - South Korean supply and demand: The seasonality of LPG demand was not obvious. The import volume was expected to remain at a relatively high level, but there was a slight increase in November and a recent rebound [65]. - Japanese supply and demand: Japan was highly dependent on LPG imports, and the demand and import seasonality were obvious. The import volume was expected to increase with the cooling weather [68]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Supply: With high refinery profits, domestic LPG production was expected to remain at a high level, but the external supply volume was not high, and the import volume was also low [72]. - Demand: Based on profit and seasonality, chemical demand decreased while combustion demand increased. The chemical demand in the fourth quarter was better than expected [72]. - Inventory: There was a slight reduction in overall inventory, mainly at the port [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the far - month contracts of PXTA, suggesting continued optimism [1][2][6][7][27][56][68][85][118][123] Core Viewpoints - The current low valuation of PXTA combined with a production gap period provides an opportunity. The PTA market is in an upward - trending phase, and the price center is expected to rise in the future. The overall situation is expected to improve due to no new production plans for PTA and PX in the future and positive growth in downstream demand. There are long - term opportunities for long positions [5][14] - The market sentiment is currently positive, but there is a lack of substantial favorable news. The improvement in the overall situation is based on long - term optimism. During the off - season, the market is expected to see limited rebound, and it is advisable to focus on long - term long opportunities in far - month contracts [13] Summary by Directory Investment Strategy - **PX1 - 5 Reverse Spread**: The strategy involves the PX601 and PX605 contracts. The cost formula is PX601 - PX605. The target spread is - 200, and the stop - loss spread is 160. It was proposed on August 8, 2025. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread opportunity of PX1 - 5 [8] Industry Chain Operation Suggestions PX - **Refineries (Inventory Management)**: For those with PX inventory worried about price drops, they can sell a certain proportion on the market. The hedging derivative is PX601P6500, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [10] - **Polyester Traders (Procurement Management)**: To build inventory and buy PX at a low price, they can buy short - term call options to prevent price surges. The option is PX605, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 6650 [10] - **Polyester Traders (Inventory Management)**: To protect inventory from price drops, they can sell on the market. The hedging derivative is PX601P6500, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [10] - **Polyester Factories (Procurement Management)**: When in need of PX and worried about price increases, they can buy call options according to the production plan to prevent price surges. The option is PX605, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 6650 [10] - **Polyester Factories (Inventory Management)**: To protect inventory from price drops, they can sell on the market. The hedging derivative is PX601P6500, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [10] - **Textile Enterprises (Procurement Management)**: To prevent PX price increases, they can buy call options. The option is PX605, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 6650 [10] PTA - **Polyester Traders (Inventory Management - Worried about Price Drops)**: They can hedge a small proportion of unsold PTA inventory by short - selling. The hedging derivative is TA601P4450, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [4] - **Polyester Traders (Inventory Management - Seeking High - Price Sales)**: They can hedge a small proportion of unsold PTA inventory by short - selling. The hedging derivative is TA601P4450, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [4] - **Polyester Traders (Procurement Management)**: They can buy futures or options on the market according to the proportion to prevent sudden price increases. The options are TA601C4800 and TA601P4550, with a purchase ratio of 100% and entry prices of 30 and 35 respectively [4] - **Polyester Factories (Inventory Management - Worried about Price Drops)**: They can hedge a small proportion of unsold PTA inventory by short - selling. The hedging derivative is TA601P4450, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [4] - **Polyester Factories (Procurement Management - Worried about Price Increases)**: They can buy futures or options on the market according to the proportion to prevent sudden price increases. The options are TA601C4800 and TA601P4550, with a purchase ratio of 100% and entry prices of 30 and 35 respectively [4] - **Textile Enterprises (Procurement Management - Worried about Price Increases)**: They can buy options to prevent sudden price increases. The option is TA601P4550, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 35 [4] Fundamental Analysis and Strategies Supply - For PTA, with the planned maintenance of Yisheng and Honggang Petrochemical, the PTA load has recently decreased. The restart and maintenance are proceeding as planned. There is no significant unexpected situation on the supply side, but the subsequent supply pressure remains high due to the new 300 - million - ton Xin凤鸣 plant. For PX, the Zhonghua Quanzhou plant has reduced its load due to a fault, and the Shanghai Petrochemical plant has restarted, with fewer clear maintenance plans in the future [13] Demand - This week, the polyester operating rate has remained at around 90%. The overall terminal data is average. The profits of various polyester products have been compressed to different extents, and the inventory level is generally neutral. Due to previous export - rushing phenomena, the off - season expectations are average. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester inventory and load during the off - season [13] Spot - Recently, due to the high supply pressure in the far - month, the spot performance has been weak. The basis has not rebounded as much as the single - sided price, and the spot is still at a discount of around 60 to the 01 contract [13] Valuation - Currently, PXN is around 288 US dollars per ton, and the 1.9 - cargo processing fee is around 150 yuan per ton. Overall, the PTA valuation is still low, and it has slightly recovered recently with the improvement in sentiment. The recent valuation repair is more reflected in PX [13] Unilateral Strategy - The current market sentiment is positive, but there is no actual favorable news. The improvement in the overall situation is based on long - term optimism about the future production gap of PTA and PX. During the off - season, the valuation is repaired in advance, and there is no substantial improvement in the overall supply - demand pattern from the basis. On the unilateral side, the expected rebound during the off - season is limited, and attention should be paid to long - term long opportunities in far - month contracts [13] PX Analysis PX Load - The Zhonghua Quanzhou 800,000 - ton plant stopped for maintenance on November 25, with an expected two - month maintenance period. A 100,000 - ton PX plant of Fujia Liuhe has been shut down since late March. There were no plant changes this week. The weekly PX output was 748,200 tons, a 0.58% decrease from last week. The domestic bi - weekly average capacity utilization rate was 89.21%, a 0.53% decrease from last week. The Asian weekly average capacity utilization rate was 79.12%, a 0.29% decrease [19] PX Profit - The current PXN is around 288 US dollars per ton. After rebounding from the bottom, the valuation is still at a relatively high level and is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the strong gasoline crack spread, which is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. There are also reports of the reconstruction of the aromatics logistics from South Korea to the United States, and attention should be paid to whether the subsequent gasoline blending will drive up PXN [29] PX Regional Spread - When the US - Asia spread is too large, there will be exports from Asia to the United States, affecting the Asian supply - demand pattern. Currently, the US - Asia spread has stabilized. After the export of aromatics dropped to zero last October, there was some flow in November and December. The volume of aromatics logistics increased in the first quarter of this year but dropped to zero after April. There has been little logistics in recent months, but there has been some logistics for other aromatics such as pure benzene. Attention should be paid to the subsequent export situation [37] PTA Analysis TA Operating Rate - The current effective operating rate is 75%. There were no changes in domestic PTA plants this week, but the supply increased due to the restart of Honggang Petrochemical last week. The domestic overall output has slightly increased this period. The PTA near - month still faces significant supply - demand pressure, but the situation has started to improve. If the downstream polyester can maintain a high load, the short - term supply - demand is acceptable [48] TA Profit - The current spot processing fee is around 150 yuan per ton. With the commissioning of new plants, the supply pressure is high, and the PTA processing fee has been continuously low. The improvement in supply - demand is more reflected in the valuation repair of PX. As the most over - supplied part of the industrial chain, it is difficult for PTA to repair its valuation, especially with the new Xin凤鸣 plant just commissioned [52] Polyester Analysis Polyester Operating Rate - The current polyester operating rate is 91.8%. The decline in the off - season is not significant, and the polyester factory load has stabilized at around 90%. Currently, the profits of polyester products are stable, and the inventory level is not too high. Overall, the performance during the peak season this year was average. With the arrival of the off - season, the demand is expected to be weak [62] Polyester Profit - Since last year, the profits of polyester bottle chips have been at the lowest level in the same period of history, leading to a continuous slump in the bottle - chip operating rate and a possible delay in the commissioning of new plants, as most planned new plants are for bottle chips. Currently, due to the continuous decline in raw material prices, the profits of downstream products have increased passively [67] Polyester Inventory - Polyester factories have maintained a load of around 90% recently. The inventory of some products is high, but with good sales, the inventory of products has remained at a neutral level. The performance of polyester on the demand side during the peak season this year was average. Due to the previous export - rushing, there was some order pre - empting. With the arrival of the off - season, the situation may not be optimistic [82] Terminal Weaving Analysis Weaving Operating Rate - The current weaving operating rate is 70% [87] Terminal Raw Material Stockpiling - Since the beginning of the month, the overall orders in the weaving market have been characterized by "scarce large orders and scattered small orders." The current clothing consumption demand has contracted, and the home - textile market is divided. The sales of functional fabrics have remained stable, while the conventional medium - and low - count fabrics face significant inventory pressure. Although there are occasional urgent foreign orders, the overall inventory - reduction progress is slow. Some small factories have cut production or shut down, while large - scale enterprises are still operating stably. Looking ahead, the price - negotiation atmosphere for spring orders is gradually heating up, and the market is waiting for further guidance. It is expected that the sales of home - textile products such as fleece will experience a phased recovery driven by promotional events such as "Double 12" [87] Basis and Spread Analysis - The basis reflects the strength of the spot relative to the futures. A negative basis indicates a weak spot market, and vice versa. The monthly spread sometimes provides arbitrage opportunities and can avoid unilateral risks. Attention should be paid to the PX01 contract basis, PX1 - 5 spread, TA01 contract basis, TA09 contract basis, and TA futures 5 - 9 spread [96][99] Position and Trading Volume Analysis - The position volume of the main contract can reflect the virtual - to - real ratio and sometimes affect delivery. The trading volume reflects the activity of the main contract. Attention should be paid to the trading volume and position volume of the PX_01 contract and the PTA_01 contract [113][114][119] Capacity and Cost Summary PX - **Supply - side Production Rhythm**: There has been no new production this year. As of now, the annual commissioned capacity is 0 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 0%. Yulongdao plans to commission 3 million tons at the end of the year. - **Demand - side Production Rhythm**: As of November 2025, the annual commissioned capacity is 11.7 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 11%. There is no planned new production. - **Cost Curve**: PX is produced by pure oil - based methods, and the production processes are similar. The market generally believes that for PX, PXN around 200 - 300 US dollars per ton is near the cost, and currently, PXN is around 250 US dollars per ton [122] PTA - **Supply - side Production Rhythm**: As of November 2025, the annual commissioned capacity is 11.7 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 11%. There is no planned new production. - **Demand - side Production Rhythm**: As of November 2025, the downstream polyester demand side has commissioned a total of 2.85 million tons, including 1.25 million tons of polyester bottle chips. The annual commissioned capacity is 2.85 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 3%. There are still about 1.5 million tons of polyester capacity to be commissioned this year, and the expected annual commissioning growth rate is around 5%. - **Cost Curve**: PTA is all oil - based production, and the processes are similar. For most plants, the processing cost is in the range of 200 - 300 yuan per ton, and the current PTA spot processing fee is around 250 yuan per ton [125]

Core Insights - The electric wire and cable industry in Ningjin County, Hebei, is a significant contributor to the local economy, with an annual output value exceeding 20 billion yuan, accounting for over 50% of the county's GDP and providing direct employment for over 50,000 people [2][3] Industry Overview - Ningjin County is known as the "Hometown of Electric Wires and Cables," housing over a thousand related enterprises, including more than 100 large-scale companies, forming a complete industrial chain from raw material processing to finished product manufacturing, testing, and logistics [2] - The local electric wire and cable industry has a strong internal growth momentum, with GDP growth rates significantly higher than the provincial average [3] Challenges Faced - The industry is currently facing multiple challenges, including increased bidding thresholds from the State Grid, which excludes small and medium-sized enterprises, leading to a reduction in overall orders [2][4] - The order payment terms have extended from 3 months to 6-8 months, putting pressure on cash flow for enterprises [2][5] - Rising copper prices have increased raw material costs, with copper accounting for 60%-70% of total production costs [6] - Many private enterprises lack professional risk control teams, leading to severe talent loss and insufficient motivation for transformation and upgrading [2][6] Market Dynamics - The local electric wire and cable enterprises are heavily reliant on government procurement, particularly from the State Grid, which is expected to reduce overall orders from 20 billion yuan to 12 billion yuan, concentrating on a few leading companies [5][4] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with companies trapped in a "low-price bidding" cycle, resulting in profit margins dropping to 8%-12% [5] Talent and Management Issues - Many enterprises are family-owned, with founders reaching retirement age and a lack of interest from their children in succession, leading to management gaps [6][7] - There is a significant outflow of talent, which hampers the ability of companies to advance digital transformation and engage in futures hedging [6][7] Recommendations for Improvement - The industry needs to shift from a "scale expansion" model to a "quality and efficiency" model, focusing on high-end, branded, and internationalized development [8] - Suggested actions include strengthening top-level design, leveraging industry associations for shared risk control services, promoting pilot projects for copper price insurance and futures, enhancing talent recruitment and training mechanisms, and encouraging digital transformation and smart manufacturing upgrades [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: December 9, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Wandong (Investment Consulting License Number: Z0022725) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The outer - market US soybeans focus on whether the yield of 53 bushels per acre in the December supply - demand report will continue to be reduced. The US claims 12 million tons of Chinese purchases, but less than 40% has been completed, and the completion date may be postponed. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the US soybean price will fluctuate around the cost - line. The inner - market soybean meal lacks a unilateral driver and will follow the outer - market in the short - term. In the medium - term, the shipping schedule of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and the scale of the state reserve release will determine the supply in the first quarter. [4] - Recently, US soybeans have fallen below key levels, and the inner - market has followed suit with a larger decline due to the news of state reserve release. The profit of soybean purchases has decreased. The scale of the state reserve release is estimated to be between 5 - 6 million tons, and a weekly release of 500,000 tons may continue until the end of February. When trading the profit of US soybean purchases, the supply scale should be used to judge the trend. [4] - Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand. The rapeseed inventory and crushing have been exhausted, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also declining rapidly. However, due to the expected arrival of Australian rapeseed and subsequent imports, the supply is expected to recover, so the rapeseed meal market is weak. Currently in the off - season of aquatic consumption, the demand growth is limited, and the rapeseed meal inventory is expected to rise. [4][5] - The cost of previous soybean purchases supports the near - month contracts, and the outer - market balance sheet valuation range is moving up. However, the current high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China, the smooth planting in Brazil, and the expected South American bumper harvest are suppressing the far - month prices. The supply gap in the far - month is expected to be filled under the background of China - US trade talks. [8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Forecast | Commodity | Price Range (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal | 2800 - 3300 | 8.5% | 3.1% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2250 - 2750 | 9.8% | 0.9% | [3] | 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | High protein inventory, worried about the decline in meal prices | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to inventory | M2605 | Sell | 25% | 2850 - 2900 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2605 | Buy | 50% | 2700 - 2750 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to the situation | M2605 | Sell | 50% | 2850 - 2950 | [3] | 3. Oilseed Futures Prices | Commodity | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3008 | - 22 | - 0.73% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2763 | - 15 | - 0.54% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2936 | - 9 | - 0.31% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2397 | - 25 | - 1.03% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2317 | - 25 | - 1.07% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2446 | - 18 | - 0.73% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1093.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.0723 | 0.0036 | 0.05% | [9] | 4. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 252 | 37 | RM01 - 05 | 20 | - 7 | | M05 - 09 | - 115 | - 3 | RM05 - 09 | - 69 | 0 | | M09 - 01 | - 100 | - 5 | RM09 - 01 | 49 | 7 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 0 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | 199 | 12 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2580 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 38 | 35 | | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 640 | 20 | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 436 | - 8 | [10] | 5. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4716.1059 | - 40.415 | 0.0773 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3763.46 | - 32.42 | - 73.19 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 766.8465 | - 2.2244 | 6.6552 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 1011.6253 | - 40.415 | - 138.5985 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 67.7677 | 0.2112 | - 0.708 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 687 | - 51 | 23 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 913 | - 55 | 13 | [11] |

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [4] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are less optimistic than previously expected, and it may trade between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after rebounds [3][16]. - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable. If the PS2601 contract gaps down significantly on Monday, long - buying opportunities at low levels should be considered, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity for the PS2605 contract [3][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 325 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8,805 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8,900 yuan/ton [9]. - The PS2601 contract of polysilicon decreased by 915 yuan/ton to 55,510 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re - feeding material of polysilicon remained flat at 53,200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Xinjiang Large Factories Increase Production, and New Delivery Brands for Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated downward. Xinjiang added 5 units, Yunnan reduced 2 units, Sichuan decreased 14 units, and Inner Mongolia added 1 unit. Shihezi launched a level II (orange) emergency response for heavy pollution weather [1][4][11]. - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.8 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.29 million tons week - on - week. From December to the first quarter of next year, industrial silicon will accumulate 10,000 - 20,000 tons of inventory per month [11]. Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon continued to rise. Some enterprises reduced production, and some resumed production. The overall operating rate was 73.31%, the weekly output was 48,500 tons, a decrease of 2.81% week - on - week, and the inventory was 45,600 tons, an increase of 2.01% week - on - week. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11][12]. Polysilicon - This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated. The price of N - type dense re - feeding material of leading manufacturers remained above 51 - 53 yuan/kg, and the granular material remained at 50 - 51 yuan/kg. The production schedule in December is expected to be 112,000 tons. The inventory is expected to remain stable [2][12]. Silicon Wafers - This week, the price of silicon wafers continued to fall, and the average price of each size has broken through the cash cost. Production is expected to be 45GW in December, and the inventory is expected to oscillate at a low level [13]. Battery Cells - This week, the price of battery cells remained stable. Production is expected to be 47.8GW in December. The price is expected to remain stable [13]. Components - This week, the price of components remained basically stable. Production is expected to be significantly lower in December, with only 37GW for domestic production. The price is expected to decline [14]. New Delivery Brands for Polysilicon - On December 5th, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added "Jingnuo" and "Orient Hope" as registered brands for polysilicon futures. Orient Hope's monthly production of benchmark delivery products is about 3,000 tons, and Jingnuo's is about 1,000 tons [2][15]. 3.3 Investment Recommendations Industrial Silicon - The fundamentals are less optimistic. It may trade between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after rebounds [3][16]. Polysilicon - The spot price is expected to remain stable. If the PS2601 contract gaps down significantly on Monday, consider long - buying opportunities at low levels. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity for the PS2605 contract [3][16]. 3.4 Hot News - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added "Jingnuo" and "Orient Hope" as registered brands for polysilicon futures [15][17]. - The trading margin standard and trading limit of the PS2601 contract of polysilicon futures were adjusted [17]. - The power industry released the new energy grid - connected consumption situation in October 2025, with a photovoltaic utilization rate of 94.8% and a wind power utilization rate of 96.4% [18]. 3.5 Industry Chain High - frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, and inventory [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts oscillated downward this week. The 2601 contract closed at 90,760 yuan/ton, down 3,880 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2605 contract closed at 92,160 yuan/ton, down 4,260 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price dropped 500 yuan/ton to 93,250 yuan/ton [1]. - In terms of supply and demand fundamentals, the destocking amplitude slowed down, and overseas shipments continued to increase. The supply is expected to grow, while the destocking speed is expected to slow down due to the seasonal weakness in power demand. Currently, the market lacks new positive drivers, and the trading logic may return to fundamentals, with short - term prices under pressure [2][3]. - The future market outlook is weak and oscillating. The destocking slowdown exerts downward pressure on prices. The price of the futures main contract is expected to trade in the range of 85,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended that upstream enterprises increase the hedging ratio, and there is no recommendation for inter - period trading [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Side of Lithium Salt (Lithium Ore) - Nigeria's plan to suspend mining activities in the north for six months has limited short - term impact as mainstream lithium mines are not located in this area. Overseas resource shipments are steadily increasing. This week, Australian ore shipments increased by 0.4 million tons to 10.8 million tons, and Chilean shipments further increased to 9,617 tons, reaching a new high in the past four months. The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons [2]. 3.2 Mid - Stream Consumption of Lithium Salt (Lithium Salt Products) - The report presents multiple charts related to lithium salt products, including the price trends of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, processing costs, production volume by month, region, and raw material, as well as inventory and import - export volume [14][22][24]. 3.3 Down - Stream Consumption of Lithium Salt (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - The report shows charts of the monthly production and operating rates of lithium battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as the import - export volume of ternary materials and the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries [29][33][35].