Core Insights - The pig farming industry in China is crucial for both the economy and rural revitalization, but it faces challenges from the "pig cycle" and increasing risks, leading to a growing interest in futures and options as risk management tools [1] Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, pig prices are expected to fluctuate, with per-head farming profits narrowing to below 100 yuan, prompting farmers to utilize off-market options for risk management and improved capital efficiency [1] Project Process - In April 2025, tariffs on imports of soybeans, corn, and meat from the U.S. raised costs, leading to an increase in spot pig prices. A company, A, concerned about potential price declines, sought to lock in profits through a customized put option strategy [2] Execution Process - The enhanced put option strategy allows A to secure higher short positions when prices fall within a specified range, while also providing a mechanism to manage risks associated with price spikes. The strategy was designed to be flexible based on A's inventory levels, ultimately resulting in a profit of 82,000 yuan [3] Project Summary - The strategy effectively mitigated price decline risks, stabilizing production for A [4] - The use of options reduced the financial burden on A compared to traditional futures hedging, allowing for timely adjustments and retention of potential profits [4] - The innovation in off-market options enhances the alignment of hedging services with the needs of real enterprises, providing reliable financial support for stable operations [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The key focus for the external market is the export of new - crop US soybeans to China due to the dry planting weather in the US. For the domestic soybean market, it's about whether the supply - demand gap in the far - month contracts will open up the upside space. The domestic rapeseed market still has long - position value after a short - term pullback due to China - Canada anti - dumping duties [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. For rapeseed meal, although the near - month is under spot pressure, the far - month still has long - position value considering potential supply shortages [5]. - The trading logic of domestic soybean meal is shifting to the far - month contracts, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point in September. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a volatility of 12.7% and a historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3160, down 1 (-0.03%); soybean meal 05 is 2860, up 16 (0.56%); soybean meal 09 is 3116, up 3 (0.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2627, up 23 (0.88%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2517, up 12 (0.48%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2667, down 11 (-0.41%) [7]. 4. CBOT and Exchange Rate - The price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1033.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1865, unchanged (0%) [9]. 5. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices and basis of soybean meal in Rizhao and rapeseed meal in Fujian, and the spreads between soybean and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, M01 - 05 spread is 300, down 17 [10]. 6. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4884.6258 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and 0.0803 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import cost is 4061.54 yuan/ton, down 16.26 yuan/day and 56.14 yuan/week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 847.4358 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and down 133.8179 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import profit is 126.2342 yuan/ton, up 10.3514 yuan/day and 0.0394 yuan/week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed for the futures and spot markets is also provided [11].

Core Insights - The launch of pure benzene futures on July 8 has introduced new risk management dynamics to the aromatic industry chain, with strong participation from production and trading companies [1][2] Industry Overview - China is the largest producer and consumer of pure benzene, with a production capacity of 32.34 million tons and an output of 25.13 million tons in 2024, accounting for 39% of global production. The apparent consumption is 29.26 million tons, representing 43% of global consumption [2] - Despite rapid capacity expansion, profit margins in the industry have been squeezed, with average production profits dropping by 64% year-on-year to 787 yuan per ton [2] Market Participation - The introduction of pure benzene futures has led to increased interest from companies in risk management tools, with firms exploring various application models based on their specific needs [2][3] - Companies like 富海集团 and 江苏利士德化工有限公司 are actively participating in futures trading, utilizing strategies such as basis trading and arbitrage [3] Trading Activity - As of August 19, pure benzene futures have recorded a trading volume of 518,900 contracts and a total transaction value of 96.52 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 16,700 contracts [4] - The liquidity of the futures market is expected to improve as more companies engage in hedging and trading activities [5][6] Risk Management Benefits - The availability of pure benzene futures allows companies to manage inventory and respond proactively to market changes, reducing reliance on indirect hedging through other products [4] - Companies are increasingly shifting from high-risk paper markets to standardized and regulated futures markets for better security and transparency [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The development of risk management in the industry has evolved through multiple stages, with a focus on enhancing comprehensive operational capabilities, innovative business models, and refined management practices to secure the future of enterprises [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Risk Management Development Stages - Before 2010, the industry faced a futures hedging opportunity period with low hedging ratios and favorable basis safety margins - From 2010 to 2020, the industry entered a futures hedging challenge period, where the hedging ratio increased but basis safety margins deteriorated, making hedging more difficult - Post-2020 marks the development period of risk management tools, characterized by complex industry cycles and external environments, where poor basis safety margins became the norm and off-exchange options tools diversified [1] Changes in Commodity Trading - The transition in bulk commodity trading has shifted from spot trading to basis trading and rights-inclusive trading - The integration of futures and spot trading has been widely promoted, enhancing risk management concepts [1] New Profit Sources in the Industry - In the new era, industry profits are no longer solely derived from processing and price differences but also from profits generated through hedging/basis, optimizing business structures, risk management services, and premiums obtained through strategies and tools [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by feed companies, particularly in managing raw material inventory during a period of falling prices due to a bumper harvest cycle, and highlights the strategic use of futures hedging to mitigate risks and enhance profitability [2][10]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Since the second half of 2023, corn prices have declined significantly due to the bumper harvest of staple crops, leading to a rapid narrowing of basis [2]. - Feed companies, accustomed to stockpiling, are experiencing a dilemma: the value of corn inventory established at high prices has plummeted, while the profits from downstream livestock operations are under pressure, squeezing operational margins [2][11]. - Companies like A Enterprise, which procures nearly 200,000 tons of raw materials annually, are struggling with high production costs from previously locked-in prices, even as downstream profits improve [4][11]. Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - A Enterprise has signed contracts for 2,000 tons of corn, locking in prices despite the risk of price declines before the inventory is received [5]. - The company employs a futures hedging strategy to manage price risks, establishing short positions in the corn futures market to offset exposure [6][10]. - By April 2025, the basis for the corn futures contract had expanded, allowing A Enterprise to benefit from the hedging strategy, ultimately saving over 300,000 yuan in procurement costs [8][10]. Group 3: Strategic Upgrades - The raw material inventory hedging strategy not only addresses risk management needs but also supports stable operations and business model upgrades for A Enterprise [10]. - The hedging approach allows A Enterprise to build sufficient inventory based on production plans, mitigating the risks associated with price fluctuations and inventory management [11]. - By transforming absolute price risks into relative basis risks, A Enterprise can strategically increase trade inventory and capitalize on favorable market conditions, thereby enhancing operational profits and establishing a competitive edge in the industry [12].

内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤470元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润700元/吨（-5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2115元/吨（-5），内蒙北线基差375元/吨（+30），内蒙南线2100元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2360元/吨（-10），鲁 南基差220元/吨（+25）；河南2255元/吨（-5），河南基差115元/吨（+30）；河北2300元/吨（+0），河北基差220元/ 吨（+35）。隆众内地工厂库存295573吨（+1885），西北工厂库存182500吨（-3000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单219365 吨（-21435），西北工厂待发订单107000吨（-15800）。 甲醇日报 | 2025-08-15 下游仍处于淡季，港口库存持续回升 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 跨期：MA09-01跨期价差逢高做反套 跨品种：逢高做缩PP2601-3MA2601 风险 投产超20年装置的动向，MTO装置检修续时间 港口方面：太仓甲醇2350元/吨（-22），太仓基差10元/吨（+13），CFR中国269美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差3元/吨 （-3），常州甲醇2455元/吨；广东甲醇2350元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the far - month contracts may experience increased volatility. From a real - world perspective, the near - month contracts are under pressure due to large warehouse receipt pressure and are following the delivery logic [2]. - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and the 09 contract is facing delivery, with trading returning to reality. There is a possibility of a second round of policy expectation fermentation, but the high inventory in the middle reaches has triggered a negative feedback [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price range forecast for the month is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. Soda ash price range forecast for the month is 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management (Glass)**: For high glass product inventory, to prevent losses, sell FG2509 glass futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management (Glass)**: For low glass procurement inventory, buy FG2601 glass futures at 1000 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601P1000 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Inventory Management (Soda Ash)**: For high soda ash product inventory, sell SA2509 soda ash futures at 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 60 - 70 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management (Soda Ash)**: For low soda ash procurement inventory, buy SA2601 soda ash futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Price Data - **Glass Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1332 (up 33 or 2.54% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1077 (down 9 or - 0.83%), and the 01 contract was 1232 (up 3 or 0.24%) [5]. - **Glass Spot**: On August 5, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1188 (down 2 from the previous day). Prices in Central and East China decreased by 20, and in Southwest China by 10 [6]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1427 (up 45 or 3.26% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1271 (up 18 or 1.44%), and the 01 contract was 1368 (up 28 or 2.09%) [7]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: On August 5, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in most regions remained unchanged, while the price in Qinghai decreased by 20, and in Shahe increased by 18 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron alloy's recent price increase is due to strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. After the anti - involution meeting among iron alloy enterprises last Friday, both iron alloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment influence and capital games, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the sharp decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which exerts downward pressure on iron alloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of iron alloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. Silicon iron has high inventory but is gradually destocking, while silicon manganese is destocking at a faster rate. The iron alloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high. Affected by the less - than - expected policy this week, iron alloys have fallen sharply and gradually returned to the fundamentals, but the risk of further short - selling is high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Alloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Iron Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is concern about the decline of iron alloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is expected based on orders, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to the rise of iron alloy prices, iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) can be bought at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The reasons for the recent rise of iron alloys are strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. There is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, and there is downward pressure due to the decline of coking coal futures. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively small, with low operating rates, different destocking situations for silicon iron and silicon manganese. The market is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and risk control. After the policy is less than expected, the price has returned to fundamentals, but short - selling risks are high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3.4利多解读 (Beneficial Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is +79 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia production area is 226 yuan/ton (+270). This week, the enterprise inventory is 6.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 11.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%, and the total inventory is 17.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%. The demand of five major steel products is 2.01 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the silicon - manganese industry. This week, the enterprise inventory is 20.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.22%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 38.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.85%, and the total inventory is 59.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The demand of five major steel products is 12.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [5][8]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises is 33.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88%, and the weekly output is 10.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. The coking coal price has dropped significantly [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - metal sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese [8]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [10]. 3.7 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data on market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese are presented, including different regions and contract months [11][24][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the short - term, the export of the second batch of urea supports the demand side, and inventories are unlikely to accumulate significantly. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to face pressure in the second half of the year [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Price Interval Forecast - The price interval forecast for urea in the next month is 1650 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1%. For methanol, the price interval is 2200 - 2400, with a volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene and plastic, the price intervals are both 6800 - 7400, with volatilities of 10.56% and 15.24% respectively, and historical percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% [3]. 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategy 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in urea prices, companies can short the urea futures (UR2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry interval of 1800 - 1950. They can also buy 50% of put options (UR2509P1850) to prevent a sharp price drop and sell 50% of call options (UR2509C1950) to reduce capital costs [3]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about a rise in urea prices, companies can buy urea futures (UR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry interval of 1750 - 1900. They can also sell 75% of put options (UR2509P1750) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - A large amount of speculative funds left the market on Friday night, and the urea futures are expected to decline, which will put pressure on the spot market. In the medium - term, the second - batch export of urea supports the demand side, and inventories are unlikely to accumulate significantly in the short - term. Factory inventories and pending orders are not under much pressure, and spot prices are slightly fluctuating, which supports the urea price. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year [4]. 3.4利多解读 and 利空解读 - Urea exports have been confirmed, and the futures are expected to show a wide - range shock pattern with enhanced downward support. The domestic policy requires factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot market sentiment [5].

Core Insights - The article highlights the challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the lithium carbonate market due to significant price volatility and the strategies employed by Company D to mitigate these risks through futures risk management tools [1][2]. Project Background - The demand for lithium carbonate, a key raw material for lithium batteries, has seen exponential growth amid the implementation of the "dual carbon" strategy, but prices have fluctuated over 50% in 2023, dropping from 500,000 yuan per ton to below 200,000 yuan [2]. - Company D, a small and medium-sized enterprise in the lithium carbonate processing sector, faces high R&D costs and intense market competition, exacerbated by price volatility leading to unstable profits and challenging inventory management [2]. Service Process - Company D plans to sell battery-grade lithium carbonate that meets futures delivery standards in 2024 but faces high costs and price fluctuations. A futures risk management company conducted a comprehensive analysis of the lithium carbonate supply chain, determining that a cost of 6,500 yuan per ton would cover all expenses, providing a safety net for the company [3]. Strategic Approach - The company implemented a strategy of dividing sales over 20 trading days and using dynamic pricing based on the previous day's SMM average price to mitigate market impact and align with market trends [4][6]. Risk Management - A three-tiered risk management approach was adopted, which included: 1. Diversifying sales over 20 trading days to reduce price impact [7]. 2. Dynamic pricing to hedge when market prices exceed spot prices [7]. 3. Multi-channel monetization to capture market lows and reduce risks [7]. Final Outcomes - Through this collaboration, Company D successfully locked in profits from the sale of 90 tons of lithium carbonate, avoiding losses exceeding 1 million yuan due to price fluctuations, ensuring stable income for operational costs [8]. Innovative Model - The "non-standard to standard + forward pricing" model creatively integrates futures hedging tools with actual production needs, addressing the challenges of non-standard product circulation and pricing while promoting standardization in the processing sector [9]. Ecological Value - The case of Company D serves as a replicable risk management template for SMEs in the new energy industry, enhancing market competitiveness and supporting the dual carbon goals by reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the lithium battery sector [10].