以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者刘诗瑶 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 文 | 刘诗瑶 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 复 盘 2008 年 全 球 金 融 危 机 、 2020 年 新 冠 疫 情 、 2023 年 硅 谷 银 行 倒 闭 三 次 典 型 流 动 性 危 机 引 发 的 金 价 波 动，行情演变呈现清晰的阶段性规律：阶段 1）危机发酵初期，黄金终极避险属性凸显，价格逆势上涨；阶段 2）若政策干预滞后，金融机构面临集中赎回与保证金补充压力，将抛售股票、公司债及流动性良好的黄金等各 类可变现资产，金价通常出现 15%-25% 的跌幅；阶段 3）美联储等监管机构启动大规模救市后，市场流动性 修复，金价逐步掉头回升。 值得关注的是，历经三次大型流动性冲击后，美联储的危机应对能力持续升级 —— 干预反应速度更快、政策 工具箱更丰富、框架设计更精准，从 2008 年的滞后应对，到 2020 年的系统性维稳，再到 2023 年的结构性 精准纠偏，流动性危机对市场的负面影响持续收敛。2023 年硅谷银行倒闭事件中，已不再出现明显的阶段 2 ...

Group 1 - The core message is that major state-owned banks, including Industrial and Agricultural Banks, have introduced high-denomination large certificates of deposit (CDs) with varying minimum deposit requirements, while maintaining the same interest rate of 1.55% for both high and low minimum deposits [1][2][4] - Industrial Bank offers two types of three-year large CDs: one with a minimum deposit of 1 million yuan and another with a minimum of 200,000 yuan, both having the same interest rate of 1.55% [1] - Agricultural Bank also provides two options for three-year large CDs, with minimum deposits of 5 million yuan and 20,000 yuan, respectively, and the same interest rate of 1.55% [2] Group 2 - The introduction of high-denomination large CDs by state-owned banks is a market behavior aimed at precise customer segmentation and refined liability management, which complies with regulatory requirements [4] - The minimum subscription amount for personal large CDs is set at no less than 20,000 yuan, with no upper limit, allowing banks to set higher thresholds for certain products [4] - The main advantages of large CDs over regular deposits include higher liquidity and flexibility, such as transferability and pledge options, which should be considered by depositors based on their financial planning [4]

Core Insights - The key to success in the trading competition for Chengdu Kaipule Asset Management Co., Ltd. was not precise predictions but the inherent advantages of an institutional trend-following system [1][2] - The best-performing strategy this year was index arbitrage, focusing on long positions in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices while shorting the SSE 50 index [2] Strategy and Performance - The trading strategy was designed to capture the upward trend in the A-share market while providing effective risk hedging [2] - The approach involved a systematic analysis of macroeconomic cycles, identifying benefiting or adversely affected asset classes, and continuously tracking key data [2][4] - The transition from subjective prediction to systematic trend-following has led to significant improvements in trading performance [4] Risk Management - Emphasis on stop-loss mechanisms as a critical aspect of trading, including hard stop-loss orders and proactive exit strategies when market movements deviate from expectations [6] - The importance of capital management, including profit withdrawal to reset risk levels and a "anti-fragile" system design to safeguard profits during extreme market conditions [6] - Position management strategies include calculating position sizes based on maximum risk exposure and adjusting positions based on market changes [6] Personal Development and Philosophy - The trading journey has been characterized by exploration, setbacks, and transformation, leading to a refined trading philosophy [3][5] - The trader's unique emotional management approach focuses on allowing emotions to be managed through a behavioral system rather than confronting them directly [5] - The recognition of trading as a form of self-discovery, where understanding personal emotions like greed and fear contributes to long-term growth [6]

国内两大交易所白银库存"危机"似乎还在持续之中。 智通财经记者 | 韩理 Wind数据显示，11月24日当周上海黄金交易所白银库存下降58.83吨，降至715.875吨，创下2016年7月3 日以来新低。类似的，继上周上期所白银库存创下2016年1月以来库存新低之后，11月25日，该库库存 虽勉强累库21.3吨，但仍然处于近十年低位。 为应对这一现象，伦敦金属交易所近期筹划推出新的永久性近月借出规则，对持有近月合约头寸超过 LME总库存一定比例的会员实施分级溢价限制，防范在低库存下因大额持仓导致的"逼仓"风险，以稳定 近月合约价格的波动。 11月8日，伦敦金属交易所还一度暂停了黄金非美元交易，以防止部分大额持仓会员利用部分币种交易 的低流动性进行市场操纵。 另一方面，国内库存与美国COMEX库存联动和跨境套利虽然并不频繁，但国内白银库存下降却有自洽 的逻辑。 从某种程度上来说，与十年前相比，白银不再是黄金的依附的次级贵金属——在光伏领域，TOPCon和 HJT等N型电池对当前P型电池的替代，令白银用量显著增长。而在汽车电子领域，追求速度感的新一代 电动车中，碳化硅模组的使用率不断增加，高导电，强耐腐的银浆烧结 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke's domestic bonds experienced a significant decline, triggering temporary suspensions for multiple bonds, with some dropping over 10% [1][2] Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - Several Vanke bonds, including "21 Vanke 02," "21 Vanke 04," and "22 Vanke 02," faced temporary trading suspensions due to sharp declines [1][2] - The bond market's downturn has impacted Vanke's stock price, which fell to 5.89 CNY per share, marking a cumulative drop of over 13% in nearly 60 trading days, reaching a new low since 2015 [2] Group 2: Stock Market Impact - Vanke's Hong Kong stock price also declined from 5.94 HKD to around 4 HKD, with a reported drop of 6.04% [4] - As of 15:10, Vanke's Hong Kong stock was trading at 3.89 HKD per share [4] Group 3: Debt Management and Support - There are unconfirmed rumors regarding Vanke's debt management issues, which may be contributing to market volatility [6] - Vanke's new chairman, Huang Liping, stated that the major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, will continue to support Vanke in managing liquidity risks, having provided approximately 30.8 billion CNY in shareholder loans [6] - A framework agreement was signed between Vanke and Shenzhen Metro Group for up to 22 billion CNY in shareholder loans, specifically for repaying public market bond principal and interest [7] - As of November 2, Shenzhen Metro had provided 20.373 billion CNY in loans, with Vanke having drawn 19.71 billion CNY, leaving a funding gap of 6.391 billion CNY for upcoming bond repayments [7]

Core Viewpoint - Vanke's bonds experienced a significant decline, leading to a drop in its stock price, amid concerns regarding its debt management and liquidity issues [1][3][6] Group 1: Bond Market Performance - On November 26, multiple Vanke bonds, including "21 Vanke 02," "21 Vanke 04," and "22 Vanke 02," triggered temporary trading suspensions due to sharp declines, with several bonds dropping over 10% [1] - The bond market's adjustment quickly affected the stock market, with Vanke A shares falling to 5.89 CNY per share, marking a cumulative decline of over 13% in nearly 60 trading days, the lowest since 2015 [3] Group 2: Debt Management and Support - There are unconfirmed rumors regarding Vanke's debt management issues, which may have contributed to the market volatility; Vanke has not commented on these rumors [6] - On November 20, Vanke's new chairman, Huang Liping, stated that the major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, would continue to support Vanke in managing liquidity risks, having provided approximately 30.8 billion CNY in shareholder loans [6] - A framework agreement was signed on November 2, allowing Shenzhen Metro Group to provide up to 22 billion CNY in loans specifically for repaying Vanke's public market bond principal and interest [6] - As of November 2, Shenzhen Metro had already provided 20.373 billion CNY in loans, with Vanke having drawn 19.71 billion CNY, leaving a remaining loan principal of 2.29 billion CNY available for withdrawal [6] Group 3: Future Debt Obligations - According to a recent report by Founder Securities, Vanke faces significant repayment obligations, with 15.019 billion CNY in bond principal due by June 30, 2026, indicating a substantial debt gap that needs to be addressed [7] - The signing of the framework agreement does not imply that Shenzhen Metro will cease its support for Vanke, and Vanke still has some flexibility regarding its assets [7]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market did not experience a continued decline, with major indices rebounding significantly [1] - Concerns regarding liquidity issues were primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's statements, leading to global market volatility [1][6] - The recent fluctuations in technology stock valuations have contributed to increased market volatility and a decline in risk appetite [1][6] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has a downward support level projected between 3800-3810 [3][7] - The ChiNext Index has a downward support level projected between 2500-2530 [3][7] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with a focus on identifying potential buy signals [6] Investment Strategy - The current recommendation is to maintain a cautious approach and wait for stabilization signals before entering the market [5][10] - Short-term buying opportunities may arise during panic selling, but a low position is advised [5][6] - The focus should be on sectors such as banking for blue-chip stocks, pharmaceuticals for potential rebounds, and renewable energy for price increase opportunities [7] Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment indicates that risks currently outweigh opportunities, with a cautious outlook on market movements [6][10] - The market is experiencing a phase of risk release, and investors are advised to either refrain from trading or wait for clear signals of stabilization [10]

2023年3月那会儿，美国银行圈子突然炸锅了。先是硅谷银行3月10日被加州监管直接关门，这是2008年后美国第二大银行倒闭案，资产两千多亿美元。 客户主要是科技创业公司和风投，存款大多没保险。之前美联储连着加息，债券价格跌惨了，硅谷银行手里一大堆长期国债和抵押证券，未实现损失好几十 亿。3月8日他们宣布卖证券补窟窿，还想增发股票，结果客户慌了，两天提走四百多亿，银行现金一下子见底。 市场怕传染，第一共和银行股价三天跌七成，资产两千一百亿，未保险存款占比高，债券损失也重。3月16日，十一家大银行凑了三百亿存款塞进去，想稳 住，但效果一般。 欧洲那边，瑞士信贷老毛病犯了。从2021年起丑闻不断，Archegos爆仓、Greensill崩盘，2022年客户提走一千二百亿瑞郎。 2023年3月15日，大股东沙特国家银行说不加钱了，股价一天跌两成多。瑞士央行先给五百亿瑞郎流动性，3月19日直接让瑞银三十亿瑞郎买下，整个过程政 府推的，没让股东投票。 紧接着3月12日，签名银行也倒了，资产一千多亿，搞加密货币业务的多，存款一样跑得飞快。同一天，监管宣布这两家所有存款都保，包括超25万刀那部 分，钱从存款保险基金出，后来再 ...

【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 | Millio ■控期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月21日 | | 黄金 ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属震荡回落。推迟公布的9月非农就业人数增加11.9万超预期和前值，但失业率小幅上升0.1个百分 点至4.4%,周度初请失业金人数22.3万人低于预期维持低位,就业保持韧性。美联储官员们表态存在较大分 歧,12月维持利率不变可能性较高。美股大幅回调,警惕流动性风险。贵金属高位震荡,关注技术面的方向 性突破。 ★美联储 -- ①巴尔:对通胀仍处于3%水平表示担忧。需要支持劳动力市场,但需 ...

有色金属周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251121 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内主要金属现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.11.7 | 2025.11.14 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | 现货指标 | 2025.11.7 | 2025.11.14 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2601 | 86900 | 85660 | -1240 | -1.43% | 平均价:1#铜:上海现货 | 87070 | 85870 | -1200 | -1.38% | | 铝 | AL2601 | 21840 | 21340 | -500 | -2.29% | 平均价:A00铝:上海现货 | 21900 | 21370 | -530 | -2.42% | | 锌 | ZN2601 | 22465 | 22390 | -75 | -0.33% | 平均价:0#锌:上海现货 | 2248 ...