格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 2 月 4 日星期周三 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2 | 月 3 日，贵金属企稳，大宗商品整体获得支撑，植物油板块止跌回稳定，棕榈油 和菜籽油抗跌，豆油跌幅收窄。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8086 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.07%，日减仓 | | | | | 31478 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8030 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.02%，日增 | | | | | 仓 4275 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9094 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.89%，日减 | | | | | 仓 35 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 报收于 9040 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.92%，日减仓 | | | | ...

八部门印发《汽车数据出境安全指引（2026版）》 2月3日消息，工业和信息化部等八部门印发《汽车数据出境安全指引（2026版）》。根据《安全指 引》，汽车数据处理者向中华人民共和国境外提供汽车数据，符合以下情形之一的属于数据出境行为： 1.汽车数据处理者将在中华人民共和国境内运营中收集和产生的汽车数据传输至境外；2.汽车数据处理 者收集和产生的汽车数据存储在境内，境外的机构、组织或者个人可以查询、调取、下载、导出；3.符 合《个人信息保护法》第三条第二款情形，在境外处理境内自然人个人信息等其他数据处理活动。 极氪：部分极氪8X内容提前出现，打乱既定信息发布节奏 2月3日，极氪发布声明称，近期部分关于极氪8X的内容提前出现，打乱了既定的信息发布节奏，对此 已与相关方进行沟通，希望借此机会再次重申极氪对产品发布秩序与信息公平的重视。极氪8X是极氪 上半年最重要的全新车型，目前已进入量产前的大规模测试阶段。 千里科技2月3日公告，2026年1月公司汽车整车销量为7119辆，同比增长162.79%。 现代汽车1月销量同比减少1%，起亚销量增加2.4% 现代汽车集团2月2日发布的1月业绩显示，现代汽车总销量同比减少1% ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9215 | 79 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2249 | -27 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 80 | 8 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -38 | -17 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 285363 | 1028 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 922401 | 9439 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -14551 | -2962 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -229177 | -22631 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 625 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 645.4 | -2 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 6007 | 32 | | ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 2 月 3 日星期周二 | | | 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 期是上半年实施。 | 8、截止到 | 2026 | 年第 | 5 | 周末，国内三大食用油库存总量为 | 199.39 | 万吨，周度下降 | 5.10 | 万吨， | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 环比下降 | 2.49%，同比下降 | 2.88%。其中豆油库存为 | 109.12 | 万吨，周度下降 | 0.51 | 万吨，环 | 比下降 | 0.47%，同比增加 | 7.61%；食用棕油库存为 | 63.93 | 万吨，周度下降 | 3.26 | 万吨，环比下 | | | | | | | 降 | 4.85%，同比增加 | 48.26%；菜油库存为 | 26.34 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there is a need for a correction in the oil and fat market due to profit - taking near the holiday. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. [3][5][68] - The Malaysian palm oil may experience production cuts and inventory reduction in January, but the inventory may remain at a relatively high level due to the high base. The combined inventory of Malaysia and Indonesia is not very loose. [4][14][68] - There are potential positive factors for soybean oil, such as following the rise of palm oil and the positive outlook for US biodiesel, but there is no prominent core contradiction. The supply pressure may be postponed. [4][40][68] - Rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory slightly in the short - term. The price has support below and is still affected by policy disturbances. [4][43][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, the oil and fat market rebounded after reaching the bottom and fluctuated upward overall. Palm oil rose by about 7.8%, soybean oil by about 5.7%, and rapeseed oil by about 2.8% due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. The OI - Y 05 and OI - P 05 spreads continued to narrow. [3][10] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Malaysian palm oil may cut production and reduce inventory in January, but the inventory may remain high. There are potential positive factors for soybean oil, and rapeseed oil will maintain a slight inventory reduction with limited downward space. [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Consider shorting lightly at high levels or waiting for a correction to go long. The market will maintain a wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Consider reverse arbitrage for Y59 at high levels. - Options: Stay on the sidelines. [5] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the preface summary, in January, the oil and fat market fluctuated upward. Palm oil was pushed up by factors such as the market's view that the negative news was exhausted and Indonesia's plan to raise the Levy tax in March. The expectation of US biodiesel also boosted the market. Rapeseed oil was affected by Sino - Canadian trade relations. [10] 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil in January May Cut Production and Reduce Inventory, and Indonesia Seizes Illegal Plantations - In December, Malaysian palm oil inventory unexpectedly increased to 3.05 million tons. In January, production is expected to decrease to about 1.57 million tons, and inventory may reduce to around 2.85 million tons but remain at a relatively high historical level. The spot price of Malaysian CPO is oscillating strongly. Indonesia has seized illegal plantations, which may affect production in the short - term. The price of Indonesian palm oil is rising, and the export tax will be increased in March. [13][14][21] 3.2.3 India Has Soybean Oil Wash - Sales, and Palm Oil Imports May Increase - In December, India's edible oil imports decreased compared with the same period last year. The inventory of palm oil in ports decreased slightly, while that of soybean oil and sunflower oil increased. Currently, there is no import profit for the three major edible oils in India. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is rising, and palm oil's cost - effectiveness is emerging. It is expected that India will import about 680,000 tons of palm oil in January. [29][30] 3.2.4 Sino - Canadian Rapeseed Trade Disturbances Still Exist, and Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory Continues to Decline - Palm oil inventory is slightly decreasing, and the import profit is negative. It is expected to continue to decline slightly. Soybean oil inventory is also decreasing slightly, and there are potential positive factors. Rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing, and it is affected by policy. [39][40][43] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Palm oil may need a correction and maintains a wide - range oscillation. Soybean oil will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, and Y35 reverse arbitrage can be considered at high levels. Rapeseed oil will maintain a slight inventory reduction with limited downward space and is affected by policy. [68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, the US biodiesel policy is on the agenda, boosting the global vegetable oil prices. Palm oil and soybean oil have stopped falling and rebounded, while rapeseed oil has stabilized at the bottom. In the medium to long term, it is advisable to maintain a long - position thinking of buying on dips, and continue to hold long positions in rapeseed oil [1][2] - For the two - meal sector, view the short - term rebound of double meals, and wait for short - selling opportunities after the return of fundamentals following the subsiding of macro - narrative sentiment [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 28th, boosted by the sharp rise in international crude oil and the shift of sector funds, the vegetable oil sector continued its strong upward trend. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8326 yuan/ton, up 0.82% day - on - day, with an increase of 8470 lots in open interest. Similar trends were seen in other contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [1][2] 3.1.2 Important Information - International oil prices rose 1.49% on January 28th due to concerns about the Iranian situation and a weaker US dollar. The active March crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose $0.93, or 1.49%, to settle at $63.21 per barrel [1] - Trump's claim that the US "fleet" was heading to Iran pushed up oil prices, providing additional support for soybean oil prices used in biofuel production [1] - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1] - Malaysia lowered its February reference price for crude palm oil, reducing the export tariff to 9%. The February reference price was 3,846.84 ringgit ($950) per ton, compared with 3,946.17 ringgit in January with an export tariff of 9.5% [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [1] - From January 1st to 25th, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 15.28% and the oil extraction rate (OER) up 0.11% [1] - From January 1st to 20th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 947,939 tons, an increase of 11.4% compared with 851,057 tons in the same period in December [1] - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared with 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, and the B50 mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1][2] - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0449 million tons, down 58,500 tons week - on - week, a 2.78% decrease and a 2.60% increase year - on - year. The inventory of different oils showed different trends [2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the tense situation in the Middle East and winter storms tightened the expected supply of US crude oil, and international crude oil continued to rise, driving up the price of US soybean oil. The upward trend of Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue due to macro - narrative promotion and potential positive factors such as production decline and export growth [2] - Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. The customs tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, but the domestic auction of old imported soybeans was fully sold, and the oil mills had sufficient soybeans for crushing, with the Spring Festival stocking still ongoing. For palm oil, after the release of negative data from Southeast Asia, the market focused more on the US biodiesel policy expectations, and the improvement in export data boosted the price. For rapeseed oil, the new economic and trade agreement between China and Canada, the US tariff threat to Canada, and the Spring Festival stocking factors led to a sharp rise in price [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Continue to hold existing long positions in soybean oil and palm oil, and also hold long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [2] - Arbitrage trading: None at present [2] 3.2 Two - Meal Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 28th, with the shift of sector hotspots and the support of macro - narrative, the double - meal continued to rebound. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2782 yuan/ton, up 0.58% day - on - day, with an increase of 5766 lots in open interest [2][3] 3.2.2 Important Information - Since the Sino - US trade truce agreement in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the commitment in advance [3] - The estimated soybean exports from Brazil in January 2026 are 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and a 238% increase from the same period last year [3] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate [3] - As of January 16th, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, and the harvest progress in Mato Grosso state was 6.69% [3] - As of December 30th, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, and the second - season soybean sowing progress reached 71.9% [3] - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's 2026 soybean exports will be 105 million tons, a 3% decrease from the record in 2025, and the soybean crushing volume will reach 60 million tons, a 2.5% increase from last year [3] - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a 114% increase from the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons [3] - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, down 4.35% week - on - week, and the contract volume decreased by 13.24% week - on - week. The inventory and contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed meal remained unchanged [3] - The national grain trading center's auction of imported soybeans on January 13th had a 100% transaction rate [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the increasing drought risk in Argentina and the weaker US dollar led to the continued rise of US soybeans [4] - Domestically, in the spot market, the fixed - price and near - month basis of oil mills were mostly stable. The terminal pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, and the oil mill inventory continued to decline. However, the high operating rate of oil mills and the alleviation of local vehicle - queuing problems made it difficult for the market trading volume to increase. Due to the renewed tension in Sino - Canadian trade relations affected by US remarks, the short - selling funds in rapeseed meal decreased, and the rapeseed meal futures price continued to rise. In the spot market, the downstream inventory - building rate slowed down due to policy fluctuations [4] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Operate the 05 and 09 contracts of double meals with a rebound mindset, and provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [4] - Arbitrage trading: None at present [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, globally and in Canada, the supply - demand pattern of rapeseed is relatively loose, which restricts its market price. In the domestic market, oil mills are in a shutdown state, supporting the current rapeseed meal spot price. Policy has an impact on the rapeseed and rapeseed meal markets. After continuous previous declines, rapeseed meal has rebounded at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the high - frequency data shows that the supply of Malaysian palm oil continues to decline this month, and exports have increased significantly in the first 25 days. India's cancellation of soybean oil purchase orders may turn to palm oil. Domestically, oil mills are in a shutdown state, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting its price. The basis of rapeseed oil remains high. Affected by the strengthening of palm oil, rapeseed oil continues to rise, with increased short - term fluctuations, and a short - term bullish approach is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9330 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2297 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is 59 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal is - 12 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 297029 lots, down 1269 lots; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 940606 lots, down 29805 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is - 11889 lots, up 2345 lots; for rapeseed meal, it is - 217128 lots, up 23127 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 625, unchanged; for rapeseed meal, it is 0, unchanged. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 646.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.4 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10226.25 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 7860.97 yuan/ton, up 49.86 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.91, down 0.01. The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 790 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 263 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8840 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1280 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9270 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 850 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 560 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total import volume of rapeseed in the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 400 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 25.25 million tons, down 2.15 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is not specified in the summary part. The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 0.2 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 27.8 million tons, up 0.8 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of feed is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons. The monthly social consumer retail total of catering revenue is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan. The monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.53%, up 0.16%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.53%, up 0.16%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16.85%, down 1.28%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 13.67%, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.11%, up 0.37%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 16.11%, up 0.39%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 20.97%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 16.7%, down 0.07% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On January 27, 2026 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed almost flat. The March rapeseed futures contract fell 0.40 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 646.70 Canadian dollars per ton. South American soybean is expected to have a high yield, and Brazilian soybeans have entered the early harvest stage, putting pressure on international soybean prices. However, the US soybean export data has improved, and the US soybean crushing remains strong to meet the demand for soybean oil in the expanding bio - fuel industry. The NOPA monthly crushing report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest monthly record, supporting the US soybean market price [2].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 1 月 28 日星期周三 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1 月 27 日，地缘政治紧张，国际原油上涨预期加强，生柴概念再起，植物油板块延 续上涨。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8258 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.39%，日增仓 | | | | | 5418 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8172 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.42%，日增 | | | | | 仓 11101 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9238 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 1.61%，日增 | | | | | 仓 15902 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 1 月 27 日星期周二 | | | | 1、贸易人士周二表示，自 | 10 | 月底中美达成贸易休战协议以来，中国已购买约 | 1200 | 万吨美 | 国大豆，提前完成美国财政部长贝森特所称 | 2 | 月底前采购 | 1200 | 万吨大豆的承诺。 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2、巴西全国谷物出口商协会（ANEC）：2026 | 年 | 1 | 月份巴西大豆出口量估计为 | 379 | 万吨，高 | 于一周前预估的 | 373 | 万吨。如果预估成为现实，将比去年同期的 | 112 | 万吨增长 | 238%，创下 | | | | | | | | | 历史同期最高纪录。 | 3、咨询机构 | Sto ...

格林大华期货 我们专注期货研究 中东地区情况陡然升级，1月26日，美国总统特朗普声称美国"舰队"正驶向伊朗， 此番言论推动原油价格上涨，进而为用于生产生物燃料的豆油价格提供了额外的支 撑。 1月26日讯，据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚1月1-20日棕榈 油产量预估减少14.43%，其中马来半岛减少14.29%，沙巴减少11.12%，沙捞越减少 23.21%，婆罗洲减少14.6%。 资金快速流入植物油板块。截止收盘棕榈油收盘价9092元/吨，上涨2.04%;豆油收 盘价8226元/吨，上涨1.63%；菜籽油收盘价9345元/吨，上涨3.94%。 研究员:刘锦 13633849418 期货交易咨询号: Z0011862 格林大华期货研究院-证监许可【2011】1288号 免责声明:本内容及数据结果仅供交流参考,不构成任何投资建议,投资者据此操作,风险自担。 0 研究院《市场快讯 --- 中东矛盾上升 植物油板块快速拉升》 2026年01月26日 15:24 星期一 ...