1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the live hog futures industry is "Bottom shock, weakening" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern in the live hog market remains with an oversupply situation, lacking continuous upward momentum. The overall price center has shifted downward, but since the price is already at a low level, the downward space is limited and there is no possibility of a sharp decline for the time being [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the national live hog spot price first rose and then fell, showing a weak trend. On December 1st, the national average live hog price was 11.48 yuan/kg, with prices rising in 26 provinces. The price in South China increased significantly by 0.2 - 0.4 yuan/kg due to the sporadic start of curing demand. However, the price continued to weaken subsequently. On the 3rd, the national average live hog price dropped to 11.27 yuan/kg, with prices falling in 23 provinces. On the 5th, the average price of foreign - ternary live hogs dropped to 11.30 yuan/kg. On the 6th, prices in many places fell below the previous lows, with prices in South and Southwest China continuing to decline, and only partial areas in North and Northeast China rebounding slightly. The north - south price difference widened to 2 yuan/jin. The overall price dropped last week, with a year - on - year decline of over 29% [1] - On the supply side, the weekly slaughter volume of the breeding end may continue to increase. Under the downward price trend, small - scale farmers are more willing to sell, leading to an increase in concentrated slaughter. So, the supply - side pressure is relatively large this week. On the demand side, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow. Although the slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises have both increased, the improvement in demand is still moderate, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term [1] Factors to Watch - Changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [2] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Piglets | yuan/head | 216.9 | 215.95 | 0.95 | Weekly | | Weekly average slaughter weight | kg | 123.7 | 123.66 | 0.04 | Weekly | | Profit from purchasing piglets for breeding | yuan/head | - 243.07 | - 248.95 | 5.88 | Weekly | | Profit from self - breeding and self - raising | yuan/head | - 131.6 | - 141.09 | 9.49 | Weekly | | Slaughter start - up rate | % | 37.58 | 37.49 | - 0.09 | Weekly | [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the oil market is one of oversupply and short - term geopolitical instability. Oil prices are expected to be weak with fluctuations [1]. - Silver has upward momentum due to weak US economic data and potential Fed rate cuts, but may face short - term correction pressure and is bullish in the medium term [1]. - Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [3]. - Manganese silicon prices are likely to remain low, with cost support but limited demand and difficulty in cost transmission [3]. - Coke market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see, and farmers can choose the right time for hedging [5]. - Palm oil market trends are unclear in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and changes in China - Canada trade policies should be focused on in the future [6]. - PX prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the medium term, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - Natural rubber market will operate with fluctuations, affected by factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [7]. - Short - term treasury bond market has entered a volatile range, and the stock - bond seesaw and capital market trends should be monitored [8]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions on rebounds [9]. - Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and the differentiation between gold and silver should be noted [9]. - Ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [10]. Summaries According to Different Product Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and US threats to close Venezuelan airspace, along with OPEC+ keeping production unchanged in Q1 2026, led to a more than 1% increase in overnight oil prices. Supply is in excess, and short - term geopolitical instability exists. Pay attention to US - Russia negotiations [1]. - **PX**: Domestic and Asian PX device loads have declined. Although some factories use MX to supplement PX production, the supply remains at a relatively high level. There are potential maintenance and load - reduction plans for PX devices at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has decreased, and overall downstream demand is stable. The 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased, and inventory has declined. The float glass market has slightly decreased in production, and the soda ash market is expected to operate with fluctuations [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Weak US economic data may strengthen the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Silver has upward momentum but may face short - term correction pressure [1]. - **Thread Steel**: The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, inventory is decreasing, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The start - up rate of manganese silicon enterprises has decreased. The cost of imported manganese ore has increased, but manufacturers' profits are poor. The market supply - demand is loose, and prices are likely to remain low [3]. - **Coke**: Coke production and inventory of steel mills have increased. Supply has increased, while demand has weakened in the off - season. The first round of price cuts has started, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The price of pork has declined. The supply is in excess, and the pickling season has limited impact. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased slightly. Market expectations of Indonesia reducing export taxes may affect prices, and the short - term trend is unclear [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased slightly. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and customs clearance efficiency affect supply expectations, and prices will maintain a volatile pattern [6]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Short - term funds show differentiation. The bond market is affected by economic fundamentals and year - end policies, and has entered a volatile range [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but downstream demand is weak. The inventory in bonded areas has increased, and the market is expected to operate with fluctuations [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply of ethylene glycol has decreased slightly, port inventory has increased, downstream polyester demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations [10]. - **Gold**: Potential changes in the Fed's top leadership may affect the precious metal market. Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term [9].

研究所 供应依然偏多 关注季节消费表现 ——国信期货生猪周报 2025年11月28日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 过去一周生猪现货震荡偏弱，因供应依然偏大，且消费短期表现平淡。期货震荡偏弱，主力LH2601一度反弹，主要是空头在 监近限仓时点兑现获利。基本面来看，根据仔猪及饲料产销数据推算，一直到明年二季度初生猪供应都是处于增加的格局中， 这会继续制约盘面上方的想象空间。阶段性来看，时间即将转入12月，从需求来说，12月日均屠宰需求会有约15%的环比增量 ；但集团场12月出栏计划预计保持稳定增长，中小散养殖户目前均重及栏舍利用率偏高，后期出栏压力也较大。更长期来看 ，10月能繁母猪存栏下降有所提速，对远端合约仍将形成底部支撑。操作上，近端震荡承压。远端合约宽幅震荡思路下，把 握逢低波段做多机会。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 1.生猪期货行情 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND, 国信期货 4 周度分析与展望 研究所 2.生猪期货合约月差 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires a larger reduction in production. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. [2][4] - Palm oil may reverse its current supply - excess and inventory - accumulation situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating perspective and turn to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline. [8] - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [11] - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to lack of strong driving factors. [14] - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a near - weak and far - strong contango structure. In the medium term, it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short. [17] - Pig prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts or engage in reverse spreads. [20] Summary by Directory Soybean and Protein Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fluctuated, Brazilian soybean premiums rose, and the cost of imported soybeans remained stable. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with an offer of 2,980 yuan/ton in East China. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, slightly lower than last week's 2.3344 million tons. Feed enterprise inventory days decreased to 7.98 days, a decrease of 0.25 days from last week. Port soybean inventories decreased last week but were still high year - on - year, and soybean meal inventories rose above 1 million tons. [2] - Brazilian soybean planting areas had slightly less rainfall in November than usual, but more rainfall is forecasted for December, and planting is expected to proceed smoothly. The November USDA report estimated that the global soybean production and consumption in the 25/26 season are almost equal, and the supply - demand pattern has changed from double - growth to supply - decrease and demand - increase. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94%. [2] Strategy Viewpoints - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires a larger reduction in production. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. [4] Fats and Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 decreased by 16.4% - 18.8% compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days, and is expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days. [6] - MYSTEEL statistics showed that the total domestic oil inventory remained flat last week. Palm oil inventory was at a normal level year - on - year and continued to accumulate. The de - stocking trend of soybean oil rebounded due to increased crushing volume, and rapeseed oil continued to de - stock due to a shortage of Canadian rapeseed imports. The total oil inventory is expected to decrease in the future. [6] - On Tuesday, domestic oil prices fell sharply. The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil in November was weak, and high - frequency data still showed month - on - month production increase. Domestic spot basis was stable. [6] Strategy Viewpoints - The unexpected high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses its market performance. Palm oil may reverse its current situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating perspective and turn to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline. [8] Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to rebound. The closing price of the January contract was 5,387 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. As of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 146,000 tons, a decrease of 264,000 tons. The ISO predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. Indian sugar production has increased significantly compared to the same period last year. [10] Strategy Viewpoints - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [11] Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise. The closing price of the January contract was 13,645 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The spot price index rose, and the basis was 1,187 yuan/ton. As of November 21, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from last week and 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 3.8 million tons, an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year. The USDA report increased the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons. [13] Strategy Viewpoints - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to lack of strong driving factors. [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable with some increases. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.05 yuan to 2.93 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, downstream digestion was average, and the market was in a stalemate. Today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable with minor fluctuations. [16] Strategy Viewpoints - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a near - weak and far - strong contango structure. In the medium term, it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short. [17] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued to decline. The average price in Henan fell 0.15 yuan to 11.34 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 11.56 yuan/kg. Market demand increased slightly, while pig slaughter volume continued to increase, resulting in oversupply. Pig prices may continue to decline today. [19] Strategy Viewpoints - Pig prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts or engage in reverse spreads. [20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the past week, the live - hog market showed a pattern of being strong first and then weak. The futures market had a structure where near - term contracts were weak and far - term contracts were strong, the basis weakened slightly, and the forward structure of the futures curve became steeper. From the number of piglet births, the domestic live - hog slaughter pressure will be realized from now to the second quarter of the next year, with the theoretical slaughter volume generally increasing in the later stage. [7] - In the short term, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms is a bit slow and is expected to speed up in the second half of November. Small - scale farmers are reluctant to sell and are holding back their pigs. [7] - The demand is gradually picking up, and it's time to observe whether consumption can effectively absorb the supply. Considering the high frozen - meat inventory and low spread between live - hog and pork prices, it's difficult for the peak consumption season alone to support the rise of live - hog spot prices. [7] - For the future market trend, attention should be paid to the realization of consumption and the time point of inventory reduction of live hogs. In the long term, focus on the industry's capacity - reduction rhythm under the background of profit compression. [7] - In terms of operation, adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for LH2601 and LH2603 contracts. Treat the LH2609 contract in the far - month as a wide - range shock and pay attention to the opportunity of low - level band buying. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Analysis and Outlook - The live - hog market had a first - strong - then - weak pattern last week. Futures showed near - weak and far - strong, with a slightly weaker basis and a steeper forward curve. The slaughter pressure will be high from now to the second quarter of next year. In the short term, large - scale farms' slaughter may speed up, and small - scale farmers are holding back pigs. Consumption is picking up, but it's hard for it alone to support price increases. Pay attention to consumption and inventory reduction, and the industry's capacity - reduction rhythm. Adopt different trading strategies for different contracts. [7] 67. Central Reserve Frozen - Pork Operation - In case of excessive price drops, at the national level, no temporary reserve purchase is initiated when a third - level early warning is issued; it may be initiated when a second - level warning is issued; and it is initiated when a first - level warning is issued. Local governments follow the national practice. [67] - In case of excessive price increases, in the normal market cycle, reserve release is initiated when a second - level early warning is issued and the release is increased when a first - level warning is issued. In case of special situations like major animal diseases, after a first - level warning, releases are concentrated in key periods. Provinces can set their own release conditions but not higher than the central level. [67]

Core Insights - The current pig price has shown a slight rebound, reaching just above 6 yuan/kg, but the momentum appears weak and unsustainable [2][3] - After a significant price increase in late October, the market has experienced a downturn, erasing previous gains and creating a cautious sentiment among producers [4][6] Market Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing a mixed trend with fluctuations in prices, indicating a lack of strong upward or downward movement [3][4] - The concept of "secondary fattening" (二次育肥) is highlighted as a critical factor influencing the market, as it can significantly impact supply dynamics [6][12] Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of pigs is relatively stable, with no significant reductions expected unless a major disease outbreak occurs [8] - Consumer demand for pork is limited due to the availability of alternative protein sources, such as poultry and eggs, which are currently priced lower [9] - The elongation of the consumption cycle, particularly with the upcoming late Spring Festival, is expected to dilute the demand spike typically seen during festive periods [10] Future Outlook - While there is some potential for price support due to seasonal consumption increases, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, limiting the likelihood of significant price increases [12] - The reduction in secondary fattening activities reflects a broader uncertainty about market prospects, which may lead to only narrow fluctuations in pig prices moving forward [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current pig market still has certain supply pressure, and subsequent pig prices are expected to fluctuate with relatively limited changes [3]. - The futures market is mainly affected by the near - end spot price, and the overall situation will be in a fluctuating state with a relatively limited increase in supply pressure [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Pig prices across the country continued to decline this week, with obvious supply pressure. Scale enterprises' slaughter volume remained stable, while ordinary farmers initially increased their slaughter volume and then resisted low prices. The number of second - fattening pigs increased, and the slaughter weight also rose, so the overall supply pressure still exists [3]. - In terms of demand, the weekly pig slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, and the frozen product inventory increased. Although the fresh - sale rate and price of pigs increased, the overall demand change was limited [3]. - In the futures market, pig prices continued to fall this week, and the futures market fluctuated. The main influencing factor was the near - end spot price. The subsequent supply pressure may increase slightly, and the market will mainly fluctuate [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [4]. 2. Data Chart & Logical Analysis Pig Prices - Pig prices across the country declined this week. In Northeast China, it was 12 - 12.1 yuan/kg, down 0.4 - 0.5 yuan/kg; in North China, 12.13 - 12.22 yuan/kg, down 0.35 yuan/kg; in Henan and Shandong, 11.93 - 12.02 yuan/kg, down 0.5 - 0.55 yuan/kg; in East China, 11.95 - 12.45 yuan/kg, down 0.45 - 0.6 yuan/kg; in Southwest China, 11.5 yuan/kg, down 0.75 yuan/kg; in Central China, 11.46 - 12.3 yuan/kg, down 0.55 - 0.8 yuan/kg; in South China, 11.07 - 12.36 yuan/kg, down 0.7 - 1 yuan/kg [8]. - The early - week market slaughter pressure increased, and the number of second - fattening pigs decreased. As prices fell, farmers' acceptance of low prices declined, and the supply pressure improved [8]. Slaughter and Consumption Changes - In terms of slaughter, the early - week pig slaughter volume increased significantly, especially among ordinary farmers. The enthusiasm for second - fattening decreased initially and then increased as prices fell. Scale enterprises maintained a normal slaughter rhythm, and their monthly slaughter plan was adjusted down [9]. - The pig slaughter weight increased this week, and the price difference between large and small pigs decreased, partly due to the decrease in second - fattening. The overall supply pressure is expected to continue [9]. - In terms of consumption, the demand change was limited. The pig slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, the frozen product inventory increased, and the apparent consumption declined. However, the pig price was firm, and the fresh - sale rate increased, so the actual demand change was limited [9]. Breeding Profits - Pig breeding profits increased slightly. As of the week of November 7, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 89.21 yuan/head, up 0.21 yuan/head from last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 175.54 yuan/head, up 4.18 yuan/head from last week [15]. - Although pig prices continued to fall, the overall change was limited, and the cost decreased slightly, leading to a slight increase in breeding profits [15]. Sow & Piglet Prices - Piglet prices rebounded slightly. The price of 7 - kg piglets was 198 yuan/head, up 23 yuan/head from last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 284 yuan/kg, up 19 yuan/head from last week. Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing piglets was average [19]. - Sow prices also rebounded slightly. The sow price was 1546 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs increased, and the market's enthusiasm for culling decreased [19]. Reproductive Sow Inventory - According to Yongyi's data, the reproductive sow inventory in October decreased slightly month - on - month, with the comprehensive sample down 0.8% and scale enterprises down 0.77% [22]. - According to Ganglian's data, the reproductive sow inventory in October increased 0.11% month - on - month, with scale enterprises up 0.12% and small and medium - sized farmers down 0.14% [22]. - Considering the breeding profit loss, the number of culled sows may increase [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The rebound in the pig market is mainly driven by frozen product storage and increased secondary fattening, leading to a bearish pattern of high slaughter volume and large body weight before the Spring Festival. The overall direction of the future market is to short on rebounds. Given the current high - position and low - price game situation, there is a possibility of a short - term rebound. Considering the large near - term supply and the expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, the recommended strategies are first reverse spreads and then shorting after rebounds [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Since October, domestic pig prices have shown a trend of first falling, then rising, and then falling again. The average prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong have decreased. Supply and demand are in a game, and pig prices are expected to decline slightly with fluctuations [11][22] - **Supply Side**: In September, the official sow inventory was 40.35 million, 3.5% more than the normal level. Capacity reduction has started but is progressing slowly. From now to April next year, the basic supply is increasing monthly, and the market before the Spring Festival will face a bearish configuration [11] - **Demand Side**: After the National Day, demand has increased, but significant growth is expected after December [11] - **Strategy**: Recommend reverse spreads first, followed by shorting after rebounds. For single - side trading, short on rebounds for contracts 01 and 03; for arbitrage, conduct reverse spreads for 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 contracts [11][13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Trend**: Pig prices have fluctuated, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased. Supply and demand suggest a slight decline in pig prices [22] - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The basis has converged, and the monthly spread still favors reverse spreads [25] - **Prices of Piglets and Sows**: Data on prices of piglets, reserve sows, and culled sows are presented, but no specific trends are summarized in the text [27][28] 3.3 Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In September, the official sow inventory decreased slightly, but was still higher than normal. Capacity reduction has started slowly [33] - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, the market before the Spring Festival will face a bearish situation [43] - **Slaughter Proportion of Different - Sized Pigs**: The proportion of small and large pigs in slaughter is not high, indicating limited impact of diseases and a limited number of fat pigs [46] - **Trading and Post - Slaughter Weight**: After the National Day, the slaughter volume remained high, and the market supply was large and excessive [50] 3.4 Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: After the National Day, demand has increased, but significant growth is expected after December [59] - **Slaughtering Rate and Gross Margin**: Data on slaughtering rate and gross margin are presented, but no specific trends are summarized in the text [61] - **Spread and Price - Volume Relationship**: Data on spreads and price - volume relationships are presented, but no specific trends are summarized in the text [63] - **Fresh - Frozen Spread and Fresh Sales Rate**: Data on fresh - frozen spreads and fresh sales rates are presented, but no specific trends are summarized in the text [65] 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost is decreasing, but there has been an overall loss this year [70] 3.6 Inventory Side - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: The frozen product inventory is slowly recovering and in a state of active inventory accumulation [75]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Policy disruptions may affect the future supply of live pigs. Recently, the出栏 of large - scale farms and second - fattening groups has decreased, and some second - fattening operations have started to replenish. The futures market shows signs of a bottom. As the peak season approaches, demand is expected to improve, and there may be a structural shortage of large pigs, which will support prices during the peak season [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price and Quantity Indicators** - The report presents the average live pig出栏 price in China from 2021 - 2025, the seasonal changes in live pig warehouse receipts, and the relationship between the inventory of breeding sows and live pig prices [3]. - It also shows the comparison between national and Henan live pig prices, the changes in the live pig inventory structure, and the average live pig出栏 weight from 2021 - 2025 [3][4]. - **Production - related Indicators** - The PSY production index of breeding sows from 2018 - 2023 is presented, which reflects the reproductive efficiency of sows [6]. - The daily slaughter volume from 2021 - 2025 is shown [7]. - **Inventory and Profit Indicators** - The frozen pork storage capacity ratio from 2021 - 2025, the average price of culled sows, and the culling volume of breeding sows are provided [8]. - The seasonal profit of purchasing pigs for fattening, self - breeding and fattening, and the weekly seasonal slaughter gross profit from 2021 - 2025 are presented [9][10][11]. - The开工 rate of key slaughter enterprises from 2021 - 2025 and the average price of piglets from 2021 - 2025 are also included [12][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot market for live pigs saw price fluctuations. Group slaughter schedules returned to normal, with farmers reluctant to sell, resulting in a loose supply. Post - festival slaughter volume decreased, but some second - fattening operations actively entered the market. The average slaughter weight increased slightly. In the futures market, prices were weak, and the basis of the LH2511 contract changed from negative to positive [1][2] - Next week, the spot price of live pigs is expected to be weak. Supply is on the rise, and demand is decreasing. The inventory cycle will shift from inventory accumulation to destocking, and the spot price is still searching for a bottom. For the LH2511 futures contract, attention should be paid to the basis - narrowing market, with a short - term support level of 10,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 11,500 yuan/ton [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review (10.13 - 10.19) Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 20.4 yuan/kg, the live pig price in Henan rose from 11.13 yuan/kg last week to 11.38 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide remained at 1,566 yuan/head. The average national slaughter weight was 124.67KG, a 0.17% increase from last week [1] Futures Market - The LH2511 contract of live pig futures had a high of 11,590 yuan/ton, a low of 11,020 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11,050 yuan/ton (compared to 11,320 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2511 contract was 330 yuan/ton (compared to - 190 yuan/ton last week) [2] 2. Market Outlook (10.20 - 10.26) Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs is expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is in a seasonal low. The inventory cycle is shifting from accumulation to destocking, and the spot price is still in the process of finding a bottom [3] Futures Market - The LH2511 contract price closed at 11,050 yuan/ton on October 17th. With group incremental slaughter and second - fattening re - entering the market, the inventory cycle is still in the passive accumulation stage. The 11 - month contract is still at a premium near delivery. Attention should be paid to the basis - narrowing market, with a short - term support level of 10,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 11,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Other Data - This week's basis was 330 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 monthly spread was - 620 yuan/ton [10] - In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, a 5.9% month - on - month increase; pork imports were 81,700 tons, a 7.46% month - on - month decrease [12]