Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in investing in the cyclical industry due to its high volatility and low long-term compound returns [2][16][18] Core Insights - The cyclical industry, which includes coal, steel, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals, is closely linked to macroeconomic performance, with nominal GDP growth serving as a synchronous or lagging indicator, while new social financing growth is a leading indicator [2][15] - Commodity prices are direct indicators of the cyclical industry's prosperity, typically leading or synchronizing with stock price bottoms but lagging at peaks [2][35] - Market sentiment is assessed through valuation extremes and trading volume, with high trading volumes indicating potential market reversals [2][40] Summary by Sections Industry Classification - The cyclical sector encompasses coal, steel, petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, with a total market capitalization share of 13.5% as of October 2025 [10][8] Market Characteristics - The cyclical industry exhibits high volatility and lower long-term returns, necessitating a focus on timing for investments [16][18] - Historical data shows that significant excess returns in the cyclical sector often coincide with periods of rising commodity prices, particularly in 2007, 2009, 2016, and 2021 [19][20] Industry Prosperity - Policy changes significantly impact the cyclical industry's performance, with supply-side constraints playing a crucial role [23][26] - Commodity prices are critical indicators of industry health, with manufacturing PMI and the South China index serving as leading or synchronous macro indicators [35][36] Market Sentiment - Valuation extremes signal potential market reversals, while trading volume and turnover rates provide insights into market participation [2][40] - The cyclical sector's performance is influenced by overall market risk appetite, with high-dividend sectors like coal and steel gaining traction during defensive market phases [2][40] Outlook - The cyclical sector's investment value is expected to improve with a recovery in sentiment and economic conditions, particularly in non-ferrous metals, coal, and steel [2][19]

周一，One River Asset Management分析师Eric Peters在最新专栏中引述对冲基金经理的观点指出，投资者正在押注2026年的政治周期将主导市场节奏。 这些资深交易员预期一季度将出现强劲反弹，但5月新任美联储主席上任后市场将面临考验，而特朗普为赢得中期选举将采取所有可能手段。 据Peters文章，多策略对冲基金经理Alpha表示，市场将上调全球增长预期，美国名义GDP增速可能升至5%甚至更高。财政刺激将提振需求，提前报税者将获 得大额退税，对消费形成显著推动。 华尔街策略师：2025年底无需冲刺 某大型华尔街机构全球首席策略师Biggie Too表示，2025年初市场最大的担忧是10年期美债收益率触及6%，而收益率回落至4%为今年市场提供了重要支撑。 Biggie表示，尽管有人认为2027年将是灾难性的一年，但投资者需要关注的是2026年的赚钱机会。当前没有人需要年底冲刺，今年已经表现出色，交易员正在 清理账簿为明年布局。 政治周期主导交易逻辑 这种需求驱动的增长将迫使美联储重新考虑利率政策。当总需求超过总供给时，无论谁领导美联储都将被迫加息而非降息。短期国债面临40-50个基点的抛 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that many individuals are struggling with their investments in 2025 due to a lack of understanding of market cycles, leading to poor financial decisions [1] - It highlights the contrasting economic conditions between China and the United States, with China experiencing economic stimulus and lower loan rates, while the U.S. faces stagnant orders and rising prices [3][5] - The article suggests that understanding economic cycles is crucial for making informed investment choices, as government policies shift between stimulating consumption and tightening fiscal measures [5][7] Group 2 - It advises that during economic recovery, investors should focus on sectors supported by government policies, such as green energy and infrastructure technology [7] - In times of market overheating, caution is advised against blindly chasing high prices, as this can lead to significant losses [7][8] - The article recommends a balanced investment strategy for ordinary families, combining low-risk assets like savings or bonds with a smaller portion allocated to high-growth sectors [10] Group 3 - The underlying principle for successful investing is to adapt to changing market conditions and avoid the temptation of quick profits [12] - Maintaining cash flow and understanding asset allocation are essential for long-term wealth growth, allowing investors to weather market fluctuations [12]

Core Insights - The article discusses the cyclical nature of economic cycles, emphasizing that they are intrinsic to the capitalist economic system and not merely external disturbances [4][6] - Joseph Schumpeter's work on economic cycles, particularly his 1939 book "Business Cycles," is highlighted as a significant contribution to understanding the relationship between innovation and economic fluctuations [3][4][8] Group 1: Economic Cycles and Growth - Economic cycles are characterized by alternating periods of prosperity and recession, which are essential features of capitalist economic growth [4][6] - Schumpeter's perspective integrates economic cycles with economic growth, contrasting with mainstream theories that treat them as separate phenomena [4][7] Group 2: Schumpeter's Contributions - Schumpeter's early works laid the foundation for his later theories on economic cycles, with significant revisions and expansions made throughout his career [3][5] - His concept of "creative destruction" is central to understanding how entrepreneurial innovation drives economic cycles [4][8] Group 3: Reception and Impact of "Business Cycles" - "Business Cycles" faced challenges upon publication, including its extensive length and the timing coinciding with the rise of Keynesian economics [6][7] - Despite initial setbacks, Schumpeter's theories gained renewed interest in the late 20th century, particularly in response to economic crises [7][8] Group 4: Historical Context and Relevance - The recent translation of "Business Cycles" into Chinese is seen as timely, given the ongoing economic challenges and the potential for new technological innovations to influence future cycles [8][9] - The book contains extensive historical and statistical analyses that provide valuable insights into the nature of economic cycles [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic role of commodities in hedging against inflation and diversifying risks in the context of increasing global macroeconomic uncertainty. It highlights the need for balanced asset allocation among stocks, bonds, and commodities, focusing on timing, selection, and position sizing [4][5]. Group 1: Timing and Economic Cycles - The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock is a classic framework for timing asset allocation, categorizing the economy into four phases: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6]. - Commodity performance varies across different economic cycles: during recovery, commodity prices remain low due to slow demand recovery; in overheating, strong demand leads to significant price increases; stagflation sees rising inflation with stagnant growth; and recession results in declining economic growth and rising bond prices [9][10]. - The relationship between risk assets and economic cycles indicates that stocks tend to lead economic changes, while commodities respond more synchronously or with a slight lag [11]. Group 2: Selection of Commodity Types - Commodities play a crucial role in combating inflation, as upstream raw material price fluctuations often exceed those of downstream products, providing a buffer against price increases [29]. - The article notes that inflation is often driven by significant price volatility in energy products, which can impact costs across various industries [30]. - Understanding the causes of inflation is essential: monetary phenomena can lead to nominal price increases, while supply-demand imbalances often result from constrained supply [32]. Group 3: Position Sizing and Risk Control - The volatility characteristics of stocks, bonds, and commodities differ, with commodities generally exhibiting higher volatility. In stable macro environments, these assets often move in different directions, allowing for risk mitigation through diversification [36]. - The article discusses the risks associated with inflationary changes, where rising inflation expectations can lead to a positive correlation between equity and commodity markets, complicating risk management strategies [39]. - It suggests that during periods of high volatility, conservative strategies may involve increasing bond allocations to stabilize the portfolio, while aggressive strategies might increase risk asset positions for higher returns [41]. Group 4: Reflection on Commodity Allocation - The article highlights the challenges of timing in the current economic environment, where traditional indicators may not accurately reflect the economic cycle due to structural changes [46]. - It points out that the demand for real estate-related commodities is being suppressed by high household leverage, and the economy is shifting towards a multi-faceted growth model driven by exports and consumption [48]. - The disparity in wealth distribution is noted as a factor that limits total demand for commodities, as lower-income households have less purchasing power compared to higher-income households [54][55].

在宏观政策层面，明明认为2026年中国财政政策将更加积极，赤字率或将继续维持在4%左右，专项债 额度有望提升并向项目建设倾斜；货币政策方面，降准降息空间依然存在，结构性货币工具将持续发 力，央行继续进行国债买卖。宏观政策层面对经济的支持力度仍将延续。 明明认为，中美经济周期或均呈先低后高走势，全球经济格局有望迎来再平衡阶段。对于美国而言，就 业市场虽显韧性，但GDP增长结构性问题突出，财政赤字高企，长期国债利率下行受限，而短端利率下 行确定性较强，通胀与经济走弱交织使美联储降息节奏趋于谨慎。 从大类资产配置角度，明明判断，全球宏观环境整体偏宽松，债市方面，国债利率或将先下后上，需要 关注两阶段主导因素的变化；外汇方面，人民币汇率有望温和升值；商品方面，黄金作为配置资产的长 期价值仍具吸引力。 责编:李文玉 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 【大河财立方消息】11月11日，中信证券2026年资本市场年会在深圳开幕，多名分析师发表2026年宏观 与政策展望与投资策略。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，中国经济有望延续波动中复苏的态势。明明表示，预计2025年中国经 济将实现5.0%左右的增长目标，2026年将保持在4 ...

横向对比全球其他主要经济体，中国经济已经呈现出领先于全球经济复苏的特征。以美国为例，截至今 年8月，美国新增非农3个月均值已经回落至2.9万人。历史经验表明，当这个指标回落至10万人以下， 明明（中信证券首席经济学家） 11月6日，沪指收盘涨近1%重返4000点，在近期全球主要股市调整过程中，A股也走出独立上涨行情， 展现出较强韧性。今年以来，中国股市持续走强，既体现了中国经济企稳回升，也代表了以AI、机器 人为代表的新质生产力突破性发展。展望未来，随着"十五五"规划逐步推进，中国资本市场将迎来更大 的发展机会。 从经济周期的绝对水平看，我国宏观环境稳中向好的迹象越发明晰，这突出表现为需求端对经济的拖累 正在弱化。一方面，地产是过去几年中国经济的最大变化，而由于过去几年地产投资的较快速收缩，今 年地产投资规模的跌幅仅为2023年的一半左右。这也导致了地产投资在固定资产中的占比已经从2019年 的25%左右下行至2025年前三季度的14%左右，地产对经济的拖累已经明显减弱；另一方面，消费正在 企稳，且对外部的刺激更加敏感。综合社零总量和结构的变化，可以看出今年消费出现了两大积极变 化。第一大变化是社零的弹性正在 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese stock market has shown resilience and independent growth amidst global market adjustments, reflecting a recovery in the Chinese economy and advancements in new productivity driven by AI and robotics [2] - The macroeconomic environment in China is stabilizing, with reduced drag from the real estate sector, which has seen a significant decline in investment, dropping from approximately 25% of fixed assets in 2019 to around 14% in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - Consumer spending is stabilizing, with notable growth in sectors benefiting from government subsidies, indicating an improvement in consumer sentiment [3] Group 2 - Leading indicators suggest that the economic cycle is in the final stage of preparing for a rebound, with improvements in M1 money supply indicating better expectations in the real economy [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show further recovery in the coming quarters, which historically aligns with economic cycles, suggesting a potential rebound in the economy [4][5] - Compared to other major economies, China's economic recovery is ahead, with signs of a decoupling from the U.S. economic cycle, which is currently facing recessionary pressures [5] Group 3 - The performance of equity assets is closely tied to economic conditions, with expectations of strong stock performance in the upcoming year as the economic cycle is anticipated to recover [6] - Investor risk appetite is expected to remain high, correlating with the anticipated recovery in the economic cycle, which supports a positive outlook for stock performance [6]

Core Viewpoint - The financial market signals are chaotic, with Warren Buffett holding a record cash reserve of $381.7 billion while the Federal Reserve is rapidly adjusting reserve levels, indicating potential trouble ahead [1][3]. Group 1: Buffett's Strategy - Berkshire Hathaway has not repurchased any stocks for five consecutive quarters and has net sold $6.1 billion in stocks in the third quarter, totaling a 12-quarter streak of stock sales, amounting to $184 billion in total reductions over three years, generating $10.4 billion in taxable gains [3]. - Buffett's significant cash accumulation suggests either a lack of attractive investment opportunities or a strategy to wait for market corrections [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's bank reserves decreased by $59 billion to $2.93 trillion in the week of October 22, dropping further to $2.8 trillion by October 31 [5]. - On November 1, the Federal Reserve conducted a $51.8 billion overnight reverse repurchase operation, signaling a warning to the market [5]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Concerns - The U.S. housing market is currently inflated, supported by previous loose monetary policies, and any tightening or economic slowdown could trigger a chain reaction [7]. - Historical data indicates that economic downturns in 1972, 1990, and 2008 were linked to real estate issues, with the next potential downturn projected for 2026 [5][7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Gold - The gold market has experienced significant volatility, dropping from nearly $4,400 per ounce to $3,950, reflecting broader market uncertainties [7]. - Disagreements among central banks, such as the Philippines planning to sell excess gold holdings while South Korea considers increasing its gold purchases, indicate a shift in market dynamics [7]. Group 5: Economic Implications for China - If the U.S. faces economic issues, China will face dual pressures: a decline in exports due to the U.S. being a key market and potential depreciation of Chinese investments in U.S. assets [9]. - Companies in China should prepare for potential economic challenges in 2026 by optimizing asset structures and reducing exposure to high-risk assets [9][11]. Group 6: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Individuals are advised to adopt Buffett's approach by holding more cash and avoiding high-risk investments while closely monitoring liquidity changes [11]. - The cyclical nature of the economy suggests that the 18-year pattern observed in previous downturns should not be ignored, with the next potential crisis anticipated in 2026 [11][12].

Group 1 - The China Securities A500 Index fell by 1.1%, the China Securities A50 Index decreased by 1.0%, and the China Securities A100 Index dropped by 0.9% [1] - CICC suggests maintaining an overweight position in Chinese stocks while standardizing allocations in US stocks and US Treasuries, anticipating increased market volatility by the end of 2025 but a high likelihood of continued stock trends in 2026 [1] - Economic indicators show localized signals of economic upturn in both China and the US, as tracked by CICC's economic cycle database [1] Group 2 - The China Securities A50 ETF by E Fund tracks the China Securities A50 Index, which consists of the 50 largest stocks across various industries, reflecting a balanced industry distribution with a focus on large-cap stocks [3] - The China Securities A500 Index was launched on September 23, 2024, with valuation records available from that date, while the China Securities A50 Index was launched on January 2, 2024 [3] - The ETF products mentioned have low management fees of 0.15% per year and custody fees of 0.05% per year, indicating a cost-effective investment option [3]