Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was passed by both the Senate and House of Representatives, showcasing President Trump's strong control over the Republican Party [1][5] - The bill includes significant cuts to Medicaid, making it harder for beneficiaries to access healthcare, with an estimated 11.8 million Americans expected to lose Medicaid coverage over the next decade [2][9] - The bill will increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next ten years, leading to higher interest rates and increased costs for consumer loans and business financing [4][9] Group 2 - The bill has sparked intense political battles between the Republican and Democratic parties, reflecting deepening political divisions in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election [5][8] - The passage of the bill has been met with widespread skepticism regarding its economic impact, particularly concerning the potential increase in national debt and wealth inequality [9][11] - The bill is expected to disproportionately benefit the wealthiest Americans, with the top 20% of income earners projected to see an annual net income increase of nearly $13,000, while the lowest income group may experience a 1.1% decrease in post-tax income [12][11] Group 3 - The bill's passage has led to a public fallout between President Trump and Elon Musk, who criticized the bill for undermining fiscal responsibility and announced the formation of a new political party, the "American Party" [16][17] - The new party could potentially influence legislative processes if it gains traction, although establishing a new political party typically requires significant time and financial resources [17]

Group 1 - The U.S. government debt is projected to exceed $50 trillion within seven years due to the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" act and ongoing expansionary fiscal policies [1][3] - The current national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, marking a historical high, with the "Big and Beautiful" act expected to increase the fiscal deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade [3] - The act includes significant tax cuts, such as reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% permanently and raising the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000, which will result in over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next ten years [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury may run out of "extraordinary measures" to address the debt ceiling issue by mid-August, with a projected $1 trillion increase in Treasury bond supply expected in the second half of 2025 [4] - The International Monetary Fund warns that the act will significantly worsen the fiscal deficit, potentially raising the debt-to-GDP ratio to around 120%, far exceeding international warning levels [4] - The act's tax cuts primarily benefit high-income households, particularly those earning between $200,000 and $500,000, while drastically cutting healthcare coverage for low-income individuals, with an estimated 17 million Americans losing insurance [4]

Group 1: Israel's Airstrikes in Yemen - Israel conducted intensive airstrikes on the port city of Hodeidah in western Yemen, targeting multiple locations including Hodeidah port, Ras Isa port, Salif port, and a local power station [2][4] - Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the military strikes were aimed at "Houthi targets" in the region, including the "Galaxy Leader" cargo ship that was seized by Houthi forces in November 2023 [3][2] - The airstrikes involved intelligence support from both the intelligence agency and the navy, with dozens of aircraft participating in the operation [4] Group 2: U.S. Flooding Disaster - In Texas, severe flooding has resulted in at least 79 fatalities and 41 individuals reported missing, with significant destruction reported at a summer camp along the Guadalupe River [6] - Texas Governor Abbott indicated that the state is ramping up rescue efforts and emphasized the commitment to find every missing child [6] Group 3: Political Developments in Suriname - Jennifer Simmons was elected as the first female president of Suriname, marking a significant milestone in the country's political landscape [7][8] - The National Democratic Party, led by Simmons, formed a coalition with a total of 34 seats in the new parliament, achieving a two-thirds majority [8] Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Policy and IMF Concerns - The IMF expressed concerns that the recently signed tax and spending bill by President Trump would exacerbate the U.S. fiscal deficit, contradicting the organization's recommendations for deficit reduction [9][10] - The IMF highlighted that the U.S. federal debt held by the public is projected to reach 98% of GDP by fiscal year 2024, up from 73% a decade ago, indicating a rising debt level [11]

Group 1: Israel's Airstrikes in Yemen - Israel conducted intensive airstrikes on the port city of Hodeidah in western Yemen, targeting multiple locations including Hodeidah port, Ras Isa port, Salif port, and a local power station [2][3] - Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the military strikes were aimed at "Houthi targets" and included the "Galaxy Leader" cargo ship, which was seized by Houthi forces in November 2023 [3][4] - The airstrikes were supported by intelligence agencies and the navy, involving dozens of aircraft in the operation [4] Group 2: U.S. Flooding Disaster - The recent flooding in Texas has resulted in at least 79 fatalities and 41 individuals reported missing, with significant destruction in areas like the Guadalupe River [5][6] - President Trump signed a major disaster declaration for Kerr County, Texas, indicating the federal government's commitment to assist local authorities in recovery efforts [6] - Texas Governor Abbott emphasized the ongoing rescue operations and the urgency to locate missing children from a summer camp affected by the floods [6] Group 3: Political Developments in Suriname - Jennifer Simmons was elected as the first female president of Suriname, marking a significant milestone in the country's political landscape [7][8] - The National Democratic Party, led by Simmons, secured a majority in the National Assembly, allowing her to be the sole candidate for the presidency [8] - Simmons is set to be sworn in on July 16, following her election by the one-chamber parliament [8] Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Policy and IMF Concerns - The recently signed tax and spending bill by President Trump is projected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit, contradicting IMF recommendations for deficit reduction [9][10] - IMF spokesperson Kozak highlighted that the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending plan would exacerbate the fiscal deficit, which is crucial for stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio [10][11] - The IMF has been advocating for tax increases to address the fiscal deficit, while the new bill continues the previous administration's policies and introduces additional tax cuts [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill on the U.S. economy, highlighting the resilience of the labor market despite uncertainties from trade and immigration policies, and the reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the near term [1][2][12]. Labor Market Resilience - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations of 106,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping from 4.2% to 4.1% [6]. - Government employment saw a significant increase of 73,000 jobs, particularly in state and local sectors related to education, while private sector job growth was only 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year [6][7]. - The labor force participation rate showed a decline, with a drop of 130,000 in the overall labor population, indicating a reduction in labor supply [7]. "Big and Beautiful" Bill Implications - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, passed by the House, extends tax cuts for corporations and individuals, with a focus on reducing corporate taxes, which is expected to benefit high-income groups while negatively impacting low-income households [9][10]. - The bill is projected to increase the annual GDP growth rate by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027, with a maximum effect of 0.6% in 2026-2027 [10]. - However, it is anticipated to lead to a significant increase in federal debt, with estimates suggesting a $4.5 trillion cost over the next decade due to extended tax cuts [11]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July has diminished, with a focus shifting towards inflation concerns rather than immediate economic deterioration [12][13]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts have become more pronounced, with some officials advocating for no cuts this year [14]. - The overall economic resilience may support a wait-and-see approach from the Federal Reserve, with a potential for rate cuts in September if conditions warrant [14].

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump is expected to significantly increase the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt risk, raising concerns about the long-term financial stability of the country [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Overview - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives with a vote of 218 in favor and 214 against, following its approval in the Senate [1]. - The bill extends tax cuts for corporations and individuals initially implemented in 2017, including provisions to exempt tips and overtime pay from taxation [1]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Preliminary analysis indicates that the bill could increase the U.S. deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade and reduce tax revenue for decades to come [1]. - The U.S. national debt currently stands at $36.2 trillion, and the bill is expected to exacerbate the structural deficit, making it more challenging for lawmakers to manage debt levels [2]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - The bill has been criticized for potentially leading to cuts in federal assistance and increasing long-term debt, particularly benefiting wealthy individuals and large corporations [1]. - The growing debt burden is projected to have negative implications for future generations, as highlighted by experts [2].

Core Points - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" was passed in the U.S. House of Representatives with a vote of 218 to 214, and is set to be signed by Trump on July 4 as a celebration of Independence Day [1] - The act is a significant tax and spending bill, extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, raising the debt ceiling, and increasing spending on border security, defense, and energy production [1][3] - Critics argue that the act primarily benefits wealthy individuals and corporations while low-income populations bear the brunt of the cuts to social welfare programs [1][5] Tax Cuts and Revenue Impact - The act is estimated to reduce U.S. tax revenue by approximately $4.5 trillion over the next decade, with many tax cuts from the 2017 act being made permanent [3][4] - Corporate tax rates will be permanently reduced from 35% to 21%, and additional tax incentives for business investments will be extended [3][4] - The act raises the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000, benefiting households earning between $200,000 and $500,000, particularly in high-tax states [4] Social Welfare and Healthcare Cuts - The act is projected to cut $1.5 trillion in spending over the next decade, disproportionately affecting low-income populations [5] - Medicaid funding is expected to be reduced by about $1 trillion, potentially leaving 12 million low-income individuals without healthcare coverage [7] - The tightening of eligibility for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) may lead to a $300 billion reduction in spending [8] Debt and Fiscal Concerns - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the act will increase the federal deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion over the next decade, raising annual deficit rates to around 7% [9] - The debt ceiling will be raised by $5 trillion, with projections indicating that by 2034, U.S. national debt could reach 124% of GDP, the highest in history [9][11] - Interest payments on federal debt are already surpassing military spending, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [11] Defense and Energy Spending - The act includes an additional $150 billion for defense spending, with a focus on missile defense systems and military priorities [13] - Approximately $175 billion will be allocated for immigration and border enforcement, including $46.5 billion for border wall construction [14] - The act significantly reduces incentives for clean energy while increasing support for traditional energy sectors, reflecting a shift in U.S. energy policy [14][15]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is currently supported by a tax and spending bill, with concerns shifting from stagnation to inflation risks [1] - The House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, with a vote of 218 to 214 [1] - Non-farm payrolls in June exceeded expectations, indicating resilience in the labor market despite uncertainties from trade and immigration policies [1][2] Employment Market Insights - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 106,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping from 4.2% to 4.1% [2] - Government employment saw a significant increase of 73,000 jobs, particularly in state and local sectors related to education [2][5] - Private sector job growth was only 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year, primarily driven by the healthcare sector [2][5] Legislative Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" bill extends tax cuts from 2017, benefiting high-income groups while negatively impacting low-income healthcare access [8] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of the bill could leave 11.8 million Americans uninsured by 2034 [8] - The bill is projected to increase the annual GDP growth rate by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027, with a maximum effect of 0.6% [8] Long-term Economic Effects - The bill is expected to increase federal debt significantly, with estimates of over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next decade [9] - The International Monetary Fund warns that the bill contradicts recommendations for reducing fiscal deficits in the medium term [9][10] - Concerns are raised about the declining demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, which could lead to higher borrowing costs [10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July has diminished, with a focus shifting towards inflation management [11] - The labor market's health, as indicated by the non-farm payroll report, provides the Fed with room to maintain current policies [11][12] - Future rate cuts may still be possible, with September being a likely timeframe for potential adjustments [12][13]

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 947.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - On July 3, spot gold prices fell significantly, reaching a low of $3311.37 per ounce and closing at $3325.81 per ounce, a decrease of $31.09 or 0.93% [5] - The recent non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, indicating reduced inflationary pressures [5] Group 2 - The U.S. House of Representatives passed Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill," which raises the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, potentially increasing the government budget deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [6] - Concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit may enhance gold's safe-haven appeal, especially with the approaching deadline of July 9 and ongoing tariff uncertainties [6] - Strong central bank purchases and increases in gold ETF holdings are expected to continue supporting gold prices [6] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the upward trend remains intact, with the next significant resistance level for gold at $3358 per ounce, and a breakthrough could lead to testing the $3400 level [6] - If gold prices fall below $3300, the next support level will be around $3250, which was the low on June 30 [6]

调查发现，美国财政赤字被视为市场的长期担忧 金十数据7月3日讯，德意志银行研究部在一份全球金融市场调查总结中说，明年美国财政赤字可能不会 成为市场的主要担忧。只有12%的参与者认为美国财政赤字将在明年对市场产生重大影响。然而，调查 发现，未来五年内这一数字上升到52%，只有8%的人认为财政赤字在同一时期不会产生影响。该调查 是在6月30日至7月2日期间，根据来自世界各地的420份回复进行的。 ...