Monetary Policy Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.0%, totaling a 50 basis point reduction for the year[3] - The Fed will stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, allowing MBS to mature and reinvesting in short-term Treasury securities[12] Economic Outlook - Powell indicated that inflation risks are skewed to the upside while employment risks are skewed to the downside, creating a challenging situation[3] - Current economic indicators suggest moderate expansion, but the government shutdown has delayed the release of various economic data[3] Inflation Analysis - Powell highlighted three factors affecting inflation: tariffs pushing up goods prices, declining housing services, and stable core non-housing services due to slightly restrictive monetary policy[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to persist until spring 2026, with potential for a rebound in core inflation due to tariff transmission and base effects[4] Labor Market Insights - The weakening labor market is attributed to a significant decline in labor supply and a decrease in labor demand, influenced by tighter immigration policies and previous tariff impacts[4] - Recent tax cuts from the Inflation Reduction Act and recent rate cuts may help restore labor demand over time[4] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's balance sheet reduction pace has slowed to $5 billion per month since March, with Powell stating further reductions are not meaningful[12] - The decision to stop balance sheet reduction aims to avoid upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields and alleviate government debt burdens[16] Risks and Uncertainties - There is uncertainty regarding the extent and speed of future rate cuts by the Fed, which may be less than market expectations[16] - The potential for inflationary pressures from tariffs may limit the Fed's ability to cut rates aggressively in the short term[16]

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024[3] - The decision to cut rates was influenced by moderate economic expansion, a slight increase in unemployment, and rising inflation rates[3] - The FOMC plans to end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, 2025[3] Internal Disagreements - There were dissenting votes from two committee members: Stephen Milan advocated for a 50 basis point cut, while Jeffrey Smith preferred to maintain the current rate[3] - Chairman Powell indicated significant internal disagreement regarding future rate cuts, stating that December's decision is not guaranteed[3] Economic Outlook - Recent CPI data showed lower-than-expected inflation, which may facilitate further rate cuts[3] - The focus remains on employment data, with expectations that the Fed may continue to cut rates if the job market continues to weaken[3] Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, market expectations for a December rate cut dropped from 90% to around 60%[3] - Short-term impacts on asset performance are anticipated, with potential negative effects on gold and U.S. equities due to reduced rate cut expectations[3] Risks and Considerations - Risks include global economic uncertainties, trade tensions, and the potential for inflationary pressures to re-emerge in 2026[4] - The domestic market may face challenges from the Fed's hawkish stance, affecting equity market performance[4]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4%[4] - The Fed will stop balance sheet reduction on December 1, gradually replacing MBS with short-term Treasury bonds[4] - There is internal disagreement within the Fed regarding rate cuts, with one member advocating for a 50 basis point cut[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Employment risks are rising, with the unemployment rate increasing to 4.3% in August, the highest since late 2021[8] - Inflation remains elevated, with the core CPI falling by 0.1 percentage points to 3% in September[8] - Economic growth is described as expanding at a moderate pace, a revision from previous assessments of slowing growth[13] Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - Market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped significantly from over 90% to below 60%[14] - The lack of recent economic data due to government shutdowns is causing uncertainty in Fed decision-making[14] - The stock market indices fell, while bond yields rose and the dollar index increased following the Fed's announcements[14] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential unexpected increases in inflation and tighter monetary policy from the Fed[14] - The overall economic outlook suggests a continued weakening in the labor market and consumer spending due to tariffs and economic uncertainty[13]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4% and will stop balance sheet reduction on December 1, gradually replacing MBS with short-term government bonds [2] - There is a division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the interest rate cut, with some advocating for a 50 basis points cut while others oppose any reduction [2] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, indicating a shift towards an oversupply of labor [3][6] Group 2 - Inflation lacks sustained upward momentum, with the core CPI falling by 0.1 percentage points to 3% in September, suggesting that tariff costs are taking time to be passed on to consumers [3][5] - The Federal Reserve's assessment of employment and inflation is based on available data due to the lack of recent economic data caused by the government shutdown [5] - Economic growth is described as expanding at a moderate pace, although consumer spending has weakened, particularly in retail [8] Group 3 - The outlook for the U.S. economy remains cautious, with the Beige Book indicating a decline in consumer spending and a preference for discounts among lower-income groups [8] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in December has decreased significantly, reflecting uncertainty in the labor market and inflation dynamics [9] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making may be delayed due to the absence of economic data, which complicates the assessment of labor market risks [9]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00% [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, emphasizing the need to assess evolving economic data and risks [2] Economic Indicators - Current indicators show moderate expansion in U.S. economic activity, with a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1] - Inflation rates have risen since the beginning of the year and remain at high levels [1] Decision-Making Process - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will carefully evaluate the latest data and changing economic outlook before making further adjustments to the federal funds rate [1] - The decision to cut rates was supported by 10 out of 12 FOMC members, with differing opinions on the extent of the cut [1] Future Projections - Analysts suggest that despite inflation being above the Fed's 2% target, employment issues are becoming a focal point for the Fed [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts continued rate cuts until January 2026, with a final target range of 3.00% to 3.25% [2] - Franklin Templeton Investments anticipates that inflation concerns will limit the extent of rate cuts, with the final target likely above 3.5% [2]

【大河财立方消息】10月30日，美联储将基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%~4.00%，为连续第二次会议降 息，符合市场预期。也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。 美联储FOMC声明显示，现有数据显示经济正以温和速度扩张，经济前景的不确定性依然较高。今年以 来通胀有所上升，仍处于高位。政策委员会密切关注双重使命两方面的风险，认为就业方面的下行风险 已上升。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，现有数据表明美国经济前景未有太大变化，正在温和扩张。停摆前的数据显 示，经济可能正朝着更稳固的轨道发展；政府停摆将暂时拖累经济活动。通胀水平仍略显偏高，近期通 胀预期已有所上升；需要管控通胀持续更久的风险。有责任确保其不会成为持续性问题。 交易员下调对美联储12月降息的押注，目前预计降息概率为71%，低于此前的90%。 责编:陈玉尧 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 ...

Inflation Data Summary - In September 2025, the U.S. CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 3.1% and up from the previous value of 2.9%[7] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.3%, lower than the expected 0.4%[7] - Core CPI also recorded a year-on-year increase of 3%, matching the market expectation but down from the previous 3.1%[7] Core Inflation Insights - Core goods inflation remained stable at 1.5%, primarily driven by imported goods, with furniture and household items seeing a slight increase to 3%[7] - Core services inflation showed a downward trend, with rent for primary residences decreasing from 3.5% to 3.4% year-on-year[7] - The overall trend indicates a short-term characteristic of rising goods prices and falling service prices, with manageable overall price increases[7] Economic Outlook and Risks - The report highlights risks of a hard landing for the U.S. economy and a significant rebound in inflation, which could affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[4] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, which is expected to continue to suppress consumer confidence and core inflation trends[7] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to focus on employment performance, with a projected target interest rate of 3.6% by the end of 2025, allowing for two more 25 basis point cuts[7]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw mixed performance last week, with major indices showing more declines than gains, while growth styles dominated, and the average daily trading volume across the market was 17,973 billion [1] - Key sectors that performed well included telecommunications, electronics, and power equipment, while agriculture, media, and automotive sectors lagged behind [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological leadership and boosting domestic demand, marking a critical period for foundational strengthening and comprehensive efforts [2] - Recent macroeconomic events include the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, which approved the guidelines for the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on advanced manufacturing and quality services [2] - The recent US inflation data showed a lower-than-expected increase, contributing to reduced inflation risk concerns, while China's economic growth in the first three quarters exceeded annual targets but still faces pressures from domestic and external demand [3] Group 3 - Investment strategies suggest focusing on potential beneficiaries of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with expectations for market upward movement due to reduced external disturbances and policy expectations [4] - The market is anticipated to experience fluctuations due to changes in trading sentiment and event impacts, but upcoming policy windows may provide good investment opportunities [4] - Long-term outlook remains positive for the stock market, supported by declining risk-free rates, ample liquidity, and improving profit expectations [5] Group 4 - Specific investment themes include focusing on advanced manufacturing, global competitiveness in Chinese manufacturing, and consumption promotion as key areas for structural economic transformation [5] - Emerging technologies and regional economic development strategies are highlighted as core investment themes to watch during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic commodities rebounded from low levels, with most varieties seeing an upturn, especially industrial products, while agricultural products showed a volatile trend. The reasons include the deadlock in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and US sanctions leading to a sharp rebound in oil prices, the increasing expectation of domestic policy intensification, and the weak US inflation data leading to a growing expectation of Fed rate cuts [3]. - The Sino-US trade relationship is at a critical stage with both tension and dialogue. The future direction depends on the ongoing consultations and political decisions in subsequent meetings between the two leaders [3]. - The US CPI in September was weaker than market expectations, and core inflation slowed month-on-month. Employment will be the main factor for the Fed to cut rates in the future, and inflation may not be an effective macro factor [3]. - China's Q3 GDP growth rate dropped to 4.8% due to the slowdown in investment, consumption, and employment. Although China's actual economic growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%, achieving the annual target requires a 4.4% growth in Q4. There is still room for incremental policies in Q4 [3]. - The PBOC kept the one-year and five-year LPR unchanged in October. Small and medium-sized banks are still under great pressure on net interest margins, and it is expected that the intensity of growth-stabilizing policies will increase in Q4, and there is still room for monetary policy easing [3]. - Risk appetite has increased, and commodities may rebound in the short term due to the easing of Sino-US relations, the opening of the window for incremental policy intensification, the weak US inflation data strengthening the Fed's rate cut prospects, and the uncertainty in geopolitical factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The US Trade Representative's Office launched a 301 investigation into the Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement on October 24, and Sino-US officials held a new round of economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur on October 25 [3]. - The US CPI in September was 3.0% year-on-year (market expectation: 3.1%) and 0.3% month-on-month (market expectation: 0.4%); core CPI was 3.0% year-on-year (market expectation: 3.1%) and 0.2% month-on-month (market expectation: 0.3%) [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - China's Q3 GDP growth rate dropped to 4.8%. From January to September, real estate development investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, and infrastructure investment increased by 6.1% year-on-year. To achieve the annual 5% growth target, Q4 GDP needs to grow by 4.4% [3][20]. - The PBOC maintained the one-year and five-year LPR at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively in October. Since October, small and medium-sized banks in various provinces and cities have been intensively lowering or preparing to lower deposit rates [3][23]. PART FOUR: High-Frequency Data Tracking - On October 24, the开工率 of POY, PTA, and PTA in the polyester industry chain was 75%, 89%, and 74% respectively [26]. - The values of some other high-frequency data are also presented in the report, such as the开工率 of the polyester industry chain, blast furnace开工率, and the average wholesale prices of agricultural products [26][27][41].

Group 1 - The overall CPI in the US for September increased by only 0.3% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.4% [2] - The year-on-year CPI growth remained at 3%, also below the expected 3.1% [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year, both below expectations, indicating a significant easing of inflationary pressures [2] Group 2 - Following the CPI report, US Treasury yields across all maturities declined, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.966%, falling below the 4% mark [2] - The market perceives a higher likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing interest rate cuts in the near term, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming October meeting nearing 100% [2] - The probability of a second rate cut in December has surged to 98.5%, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more accommodative stance by year-end [2] Group 3 - The current trading price of silver T+D is above 11350, with a slight increase of 0.28% reported at 11382 yuan/kg [1] - The highest price reached today was 11481 yuan/kg, while the lowest was 11267 yuan/kg, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver T+D [1] - Key resistance levels for silver T+D are noted at 11400-11800, with support levels at 10000-11200 [3]