Core Viewpoint - The focus of the Federal Reserve's policy may be shifting from inflation to employment, with the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting being a key opportunity for Chairman Powell to signal this change [1][2][5]. Group 1: Jackson Hole Meeting - The Jackson Hole central bank meeting is scheduled for August 21-23 this year [3]. - Historically, this meeting has been a platform for significant policy announcements by the Fed Chair, including Powell's "Volcker moment" in August 2022, which set the tone for aggressive rate hikes [6]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements within the Fed - There is a clear division within the Federal Reserve, with a dovish camp led by officials like Williams and Hammack, who are more concerned about inflation, and a hawkish camp represented by Kashkari and Daly, who focus on economic downturn risks and labor market slowdowns [4]. - The increasing internal disagreements suggest that market expectations are leaning towards Powell providing clear signals at the Jackson Hole meeting [5][6]. Group 3: Powell's Influence - Despite the internal divisions, Powell's communication remains dominant, as evidenced by a recent 9:2 voting outcome in the committee [6]. - Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole meeting is expected to be crucial, especially if the Fed's focus indeed shifts towards employment [6].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs issued a warning regarding significant downward revisions to U.S. employment data, with a total adjustment of 258,000 jobs for May and June, marking the largest two-month revision since 1968 outside of recession periods [1] - The downward revisions were evenly distributed between the public and private sectors, indicating a broader impact on the labor market [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates further downward adjustments, predicting a potential reduction of 550,000 to 950,000 jobs in the upcoming non-farm employment benchmark revision, which could lower monthly job growth estimates for 2024-2025 from 145,000 to a range of 65,000-100,000 [1] Group 2 - Tom Lee from Fundstrat highlighted that the magnitude of the employment data revisions indicates a significant deviation from the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of employment and inflation, suggesting a more severe labor market issue than previously recognized [2] - Lee predicts an imminent shift in Federal Reserve policy, which could lead to higher price-to-earnings ratios as lower interest rates enhance investor interest in risk assets [2] - Following the release of disappointing July non-farm employment data, market expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of December have intensified [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, providing a basis for the Federal Reserve to respond to Trump's calls for interest rate cuts, with the bond market increasing bets on rate cuts this year [1] - SOFR options indicate that investors are preparing for potential rate cuts in the remaining three meetings, with expectations of a cumulative rate reduction of 75 basis points by 2025, and some even betting on a 50 basis point cut in September [1][22] - Recent economic data, including weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls and stagnant service sector reports, have reinforced market expectations for the Fed to cut rates to support the economy [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's clients have increased their long positions in U.S. Treasuries to the highest level since April, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the cash market [5] - The Federal Reserve is showing signals of a policy shift, with officials like San Francisco Fed President Daly stating that "the time for rate cuts has come," and some members voting against maintaining rates [5] - As of the week ending August 4, clients raised their long positions in U.S. Treasuries by 5 percentage points, marking the highest level since April 14 [6] Group 3 - SOFR options data shows significant increases in positions for various strike prices, particularly for puts at 95.75, indicating a strong bearish sentiment [8][10] - The demand for hedging against further rate declines has increased following the employment report, with some positions directly betting on a 50 basis point cut in September [10] - The skew in U.S. Treasury options has shifted to a bullish stance, with the expansion of long call skew reaching the highest level since April [14] Group 4 - Hedge funds have significantly increased their net short positions in 10-year Treasury futures, while asset management companies have increased their net long positions in 10-year and longer contracts, indicating a notable divergence in market sentiment [18] - Current market focus is on the September meeting, with some SOFR options trading reflecting investors preparing for potential large rate cuts [22]

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department reported a non-farm payroll increase of 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 185,000, marking the lowest level since December 2023 [2] - Three major sectors showed notable declines: retail sector layoffs of 12,000 (seasonally adjusted), a reduction of 34,000 temporary jobs indicating corporate contraction, and zero job growth in government sectors reflecting peak fiscal spending [3] - The market reacted sharply with a 15 basis point drop in U.S. Treasury yields, a 2% short-term jump in gold prices, and a mixed performance in the S&P 500 as investors bet on earlier interest rate cuts [4] Group 2 - Despite the employment slowdown, hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-over-month (annualized at 4.8%), creating a paradox of wage inflation against the backdrop of a cooling job market [4] - The report highlights the delayed effects of interest rate hikes and suggests that the policy debate is entering a more complex phase, as the narrative of a "soft landing" faces challenges from the data [4] - The market is advised to prepare for greater volatility as the economic indicators present conflicting signals regarding the labor market and inflation risks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The July FOMC meeting was a significant attempt by Powell, showcasing both "hawkish" and "dovish" stances, with the potential for rate cuts becoming more accessible based on upcoming economic data [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Powell maintained a "hawkish" stance by not committing to rate cuts and resisting pressure [1] - The "dovish" aspect indicates that the threshold for a policy shift has lowered, allowing for potential rate cuts if economic data in the next two months is disappointing [1] - The market currently favors the "hawkish" perspective, as evidenced by a significant rise in the dollar index, which approached 100 [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - A single disappointing non-farm payroll report could reverse market expectations [1] - Objective assessment of the U.S. macroeconomic fundamentals will be crucial for both the Federal Reserve and the market moving forward [1] - The consensus view aligns with the expectation of a rate cut in the September FOMC meeting [1]

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by multiple factors including the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and global risk sentiment [1][3][4] - Gold prices experienced a rebound, reaching a peak of $3333.93 per ounce before closing at $3326.35, reflecting a 0.36% increase after a drop to $3302, the lowest since July 9 [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range, but there are indications of potential dovish signals in the policy statement due to mixed economic data [3] Group 2 - The U.S.-China trade talks have led to an extension of the tariff truce, with China confirming efforts to push for the suspension of certain tariffs, although the negotiations are expected to be complex and lengthy [4] - Recent trade agreements between the U.S. and the EU, as well as Japan, may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions, potentially reducing external risks and creating space for a dovish shift [4] - The current gold market is at a critical turning point, with strong support at the $3300 level and resistance around $3350, influenced by both global trade tensions and expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy [5]

Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with market focus on whether the policy statement will convey dovish signals [3] - Economic data presents mixed signals: June job openings decreased and hiring numbers fell, indicating a weak labor market, while the July consumer confidence index rose to 97.2, exceeding expectations [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.330%, the lowest since July 3, reflecting market risk aversion and bets on a shift in Federal Reserve policy [4] - Following the U.S.-EU and U.S.-Japan trade agreements, external risks have decreased, potentially creating space for a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a small upward movement after four consecutive days of decline, indicating a potential slowdown in the downtrend [7] - Key resistance levels for gold are at 3335/3336 and 3345, while support levels are at 3302/3301, 3282, and 3275 [7][9] - The four-hour chart suggests that if gold can hold above the 3302/3301 level, it may confirm an upward structure, with targets set at 3354, 3370, and 3386/3387 [9]

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices have fallen for the fourth consecutive day, with Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D price closing at 767.75 yuan/gram, down 0.25% from the previous day, marking a three-week low [1] - Internationally, London spot gold prices dropped to a low of $3,310 per ounce on July 28, the lowest since July 17, with a volatile trading day on July 29 [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to the strong dollar, a shift in Federal Reserve policy, and sluggish domestic consumption [1][7] Group 2 - In contrast to falling gold prices, retail prices at brand gold stores remain high, with Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang maintaining prices around 998 yuan/gram, while some stores like Lao Feng Xiang price gold at 1,000 yuan/gram [3] - The price differences among various brands are significant, with some stores offering lower prices, such as Cai Bai and China Gold at 982 yuan/gram and 981 yuan/gram respectively, creating a disparity that frustrates consumers [3] - Platinum jewelry prices also show large discrepancies, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum priced at 569 yuan/gram compared to Lao Feng Xiang's 470 yuan/gram, highlighting the high costs consumers face [3] Group 3 - The gold buyback price has plummeted, with 99.9% gold buyback price dropping to 756 yuan/gram, and 22K gold at 669 yuan/gram, leading to a 30% increase in customers selling gold [5] - Some merchants exploit information asymmetry, attracting customers with high buyback prices but later reducing the amount paid due to claims of insufficient purity or wear [5] - Chow Tai Fook's buyback price is 758 yuan/gram, which is 240 yuan lower than their selling price, further exacerbating consumer losses [5] Group 4 - The root cause of the gold price drop is the strong rise in the dollar index, which surged 1% to 98.69 on July 28, the highest since May [7] - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has weakened, with the probability dropping from 80% to 60%, leading to a significant increase in the opportunity cost of holding gold [7] - Gold jewelry sales in the first half of the year were only 199.83 tons, a year-on-year decline of 26%, indicating a bleak business environment for gold retailers [7]

Key Points Summary Group 1: Trade Developments - Recent trade negotiations led by the US have made significant progress, reducing tariffs on Japanese automobiles from 27.5% to 15% and approaching a deal with the EU to maintain a 15% tariff on US-bound goods, avoiding a potential increase to 30% [1] - The easing of trade tensions has decreased market concerns about global trade friction, resulting in a shift of funds from safe-haven assets like gold to equity markets, with the Nikkei 225 index surpassing 41,000 points and US stock indices reaching record highs [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Gold prices initially surged past $3,400 per ounce due to a weaker dollar and declining US Treasury yields but later retreated following positive trade news, with New York gold futures reported at $3,363.3 per ounce, down 0.30% [4] - The International Monetary Fund has warned that US tariff policies could increase inflation and harm the global economy, indicating ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The risk from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has decreased, with recent negotiations yielding some consensus on prisoner exchanges, although significant differences remain regarding ceasefire agreements [3] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East situation and US tariff negotiations with other economies, continue to be critical areas of focus [9] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, with expectations of a potential rate cut in September, which could influence gold prices depending on the signals released [6] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by ongoing central bank purchases, including an increase in holdings by the People's Bank of China for eight consecutive months [10] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The current market environment suggests a "gold +" investment strategy to enhance portfolio resilience, with historical data indicating that gold has outperformed many mainstream assets over the past 20 years [10] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated, but medium to long-term prospects remain bullish due to supportive factors such as policy easing and geopolitical risks [10]