作者： 股市马斯克 来源：雪球 黄金白银继续狂飙 ， 黄金三个交易日上涨500美金直接从5000冲破5500 ， 白银同步走强 ， 本月涨幅65.65% ， 创下119.51美元历史新高。 消息面上依然是多空交织的一晚 ， 但是利空较小 ， 利好更大。 1 、 贝森特强调强势美元 在前一晚特没谱对美元汇率表示满意之后 ， 财长贝森特重新强调 美国的一贯政策是维持强势美元 ， 同时表示绝对不会干预日元汇率。 此前日本因为债务危机汇率持续贬值 ， 纽约联储配合对日元汇率进行询价 ， 导致美元大幅贬值 ， 日元升值。 但是贝森特的最新表态打破了市场对美国配合日本调整汇率的预期 ， 导致日元重新贬值 ， 美元升值 ， 黄金白银短线调整。 但是这种利空基本可以忽略不计 ， 跌幅已经完全被后面的涨幅消化。 2 、 伊朗风险进一步提升 根据最新消息显示 ， 由于伊朗在谈判方面不是很配合 ， 特没谱表示 对伊朗发动进攻的可能性正在提升。 白宫内部也有多名官员表示支持对伊朗采取行动 ， 特没谱已经下令 周五开始对伊朗实施海上封锁。 地缘风险进一步升温推动黄金白银价格大幅走高。 3 、 鲍威尔表态中性偏乐观 ↑点击上面图片 加雪 ...

分析人士表示，本轮黄金上涨的核心支撑是各国央行的资产配置需求。此外，美联储降息周期及地缘政 治风险也是重要影响因素。 不过分析人士也提醒，金价仍有上涨动力，但全球经济可能为其带来逆风。 1月29日，COMEX黄金期货、现货黄金均首次突破5500美元/盎司大关。COMEX黄金期货涨3.71%，报 5538.3美元/盎司；现货黄金涨1.9%，报5520.50美元/盎司。 受国际金价大幅上涨影响，国内黄金价格接连上涨，多品牌金饰克价稳定在1618元上方。 文/北京青年报记者 张鑫 编辑/宋霞 ...

1月28日，黄金股票ETF（517400）收盘10cm涨停，贵金属配置价值凸显。 德邦证券指出，贵金属板块延续强势，美元指数近日来快速下跌，宏观流动性支撑明显，目前市场 仍处于美联储降息周期，实际利率下行推升贵金属配置价值。且近期地缘政治风险事件或强化贵金属避 险逻辑。中长期来看，全球货币信用体系重构、地缘风险升级与资产配置逻辑转变等因素，或推动贵金 属持续走强。商品市场呈现有色强势领涨，黑色系承压回调的结构性特征。有色金属延续偏强走势，或 表明多头趋势仍在，美元指数偏弱和供给约束构成支撑。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投 资实物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF （517400）。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能 ...

Core Viewpoint - On the first day of suspension of subscription, both the Guotou Silver LOF and the E Fund Gold Theme LOF experienced significant price increases, indicating strong market interest in precious metal funds amid rising gold and silver prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Fund Performance - Guotou Silver LOF reached a daily limit increase, closing at 4.77 yuan with a single-day increase of 10% and a trading volume exceeding 2.8 billion yuan, resulting in a premium rate of over 49.59% [1][4]. - E Fund Gold Theme LOF saw a peak increase of over 9% during the day, closing at 2.08 yuan with a single-day increase of 7.22% and a trading volume exceeding 800 million yuan [2][9]. Group 2: Fund Subscription Suspension - Both E Fund Gold Theme LOF and Guotou Silver LOF announced the suspension of subscription for their A-class shares starting January 28, indicating a strategic move to manage demand and market conditions [4][11]. - Guotou Silver LOF announced a temporary suspension of trading from January 29, 2026, until 10:30 AM, with the possibility of extending the suspension if the market price premium does not decrease effectively [4][11]. Group 3: Precious Metal Prices - As of January 28, gold and silver prices continued to rise, with gold nearing 5,300 USD per ounce and silver surpassing 114 USD per ounce [4][12]. - Specific price data included: London gold at 5,280.26 USD (+1.90%), London silver at 114.341 USD (+2.17%), and COMEX gold at 5,275.0 USD (+3.79%) [5][12]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Fund companies like Guotai Fund and Huaan Fund have expressed caution regarding the current market conditions, highlighting the potential for increased volatility due to overheated trading, while also recognizing the long-term value of gold as a hedge against geopolitical and financial uncertainties [6][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant surge in the non-ferrous metal sector driven by rising risk aversion and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to overall strength in the sector [1] - The PCE data is described as moderate, which, along with expected interest rate cuts within the year, supports precious metal prices [1] - The copper and aluminum downstream operating rates have shown a recovery, with an increased acceptance of higher prices [1] Group 2 - Tin prices are being suppressed by high prices, necessitating ongoing attention to demand conditions [1] - Antimony supply remains tight, providing price support [1] - As of January 28, 2026, the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) has surged by 5.78%, with individual stocks such as silver and aluminum companies seeing increases of over 10% [1] Group 3 - The Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF (159880) has risen by 5.95%, with a latest price of 2.56 yuan, closely tracking the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals [1] - The National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, based on a selection of 50 securities with significant scale and liquidity [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals account for 51.65% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [1]

中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 1月28日，现货黄金首次突破5200美元/盎司，再创新高，黄金股票ETF（517400）大涨超2%，连续5日 资金净流入超5.3亿元，资金积极布局。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 相关机构表示，地缘扰动加剧，去美元化加速。上周加拿大哈尼总理发言等地缘政治言论催化黄金开 启"非线性"突破行情。虽然美国总统特朗普对格陵兰岛表示进展顺利，但丹麦、瑞典等多国投资机构宣 布减持或清仓美债，柬埔寨、印尼、埃及、印度等国宣布将黄金储备存至上海/香港金库或转移回本 国。展望后市，美联储降息周期、海外不确定性加剧、全 ...

金银价格在创历史新高后剧烈震荡，强势表现也传导至基金市场。 1月27日，易方达黄金主题LOF公告，1月28日起暂停A类人民币份额申购及定期定额投资业务。Wind数据显示，截至1月25日，27只商品型黄金 ETF或联接基金今年以来回报率均超过13%，近一年回报率均超过66%。 就在1月26日晚间，国投瑞银白银期货基金发布公告，为保持投资者利益，将于1月28日起暂停申购。 校对： 陶谦 就在2025年，黄金白银相关商品型基金已经成为年度市场"明星"，有的甚至以近翻倍的惊人收益吸引了市场目光。有业内人士表示，以黄金和白 银为代表的贵金属，近期已展现出强势表现，2026年能否持续走强，还需要密切观察美联储降息周期的波动情况以及国际政治经济格局的演进趋 势。对于其他能源金属以及原油等品种，与全球整体经济增速的关联度更加紧密，因此对其保持中性态度。 1月27日，在美国总统特朗普关税威胁及美国政府停摆风险引发的避险情绪推动下，黄金和白银价格在短暂回调后延续强劲涨势，其中黄金价格 连续第二天维持在每盎司5000美元上方。 本轮贵金属迅猛涨势主要受"贬值交易"逻辑驱动：投资者因担忧主权货币及债券价值，正持续抛售相关资产以寻求保 ...

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical tensions are increasing, accelerating the trend of de-dollarization, which has catalyzed a "non-linear" breakout in gold prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Influences - Recent geopolitical statements, including those from Canada, have contributed to the surge in gold prices [1] - Countries such as Denmark and Sweden have announced reductions or complete divestments from U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Nations like Cambodia, Indonesia, Egypt, and India are moving their gold reserves to Shanghai/Hong Kong vaults or repatriating them [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, increasing overseas uncertainties, and the global trend of de-dollarization are expected to support gold's long-term price trajectory [1] - Central banks and issuers like Tether are continuing to purchase gold, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the metal [1] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider participating in gold during subsequent price corrections and to accumulate positions gradually [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) are recommended, along with gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged, with COMEX gold surpassing $5000 per ounce, leading to significant increases in gold ETFs and mining stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold Fund ETF (518800) increased by 2.61%, while Gold Stock ETF (517400) rose by 8.4% [1][2]. - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) is currently priced at 2.245, reflecting a rise of 0.174, or 8.40% [2]. - The Mining ETF is priced at 2.471, with an increase of 0.145, or 6.23% [2]. - The Nonferrous 60 ETF is at 2.342, up by 0.117, or 5.26% [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Global central banks continue to purchase gold, with Poland's central bank approving a plan to buy 150 tons of gold [2]. - Poland's central bank aims to increase its gold holdings from 550 tons to 700 tons [2]. - Several European countries have announced the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds, contributing to rising market risk aversion and increased demand for precious metals [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term outlook indicates active trading in precious metals due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, providing support for gold prices [3]. - The recent rise in gold prices may lead to short-term volatility or corrections after reaching new highs [3]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for gold prices due to factors such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, increasing global uncertainties, and a trend towards de-dollarization [3]. - The steady rise in gold prices is expected to benefit the valuation recovery of gold stocks, making Gold Stock ETF (517400) potentially more resilient [3]. - Investors are encouraged to monitor investment opportunities in Gold Fund ETF (518800) and Gold Stock ETF (517400) [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market experienced adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% at 4132.61 points and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85% at 14316.64 points, amid geopolitical tensions leading to increased risk-averse trading [1] - The total trading volume across both markets remained high, exceeding 3.28 billion [1] Group 2: Livestock Industry - The Livestock ETF (159865) rose over 2%, with the national average price of live pigs increasing to approximately 13.02 yuan/kg as of January 25 [1] - The livestock sector has undergone significant capacity reduction after a deep adjustment in 2025, with current valuations still at relatively low historical levels [1] - The industry is transitioning from losses to slight profits, indicating a high safety margin and cost-effectiveness for investment [1] - The delayed effects of capacity reduction are expected to manifest gradually in 2026, with the industry's prosperity likely to spiral upward [1] - The sector is currently in a "bottoming" phase, suggesting that investors should consider the allocation value of the Livestock ETF (159865) and adopt a phased investment strategy [1] Group 3: Coal Industry - The coal sector performed well, with the Coal ETF (515220) rising approximately 2% due to strong cold air sweeping the nation and record-high winter electricity loads [2] - The investment logic in the coal sector is shifting from purely "cyclical speculation" to a dual drive of "dividends + growth" [2] - Supply constraints due to reduced capital expenditure under the "dual carbon" policy are expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand for the long term [2] - The coal industry's valuation remains at a relatively low historical level, with the China Securities Coal Index's dividend yield exceeding 6% over the past 12 months, making it attractive in the current low-interest market [2] - The Coal ETF (515220) is considered worthy of attention for investors seeking stable returns and defensive positions [2] Group 4: Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices surpassed 5000, with the Gold Fund ETF (518800) increasing by 2.61% and the Gold Stock ETF (517400) rising by 8.4% [3] - Continued purchases of gold by global central banks and the selling of U.S. Treasury bonds have heightened market risk aversion, increasing demand for precious metals [3] - Short-term outlook suggests that ongoing geopolitical conflicts will keep trading in the precious metals sector active, supporting gold prices [3] - The recent strength in gold prices may lead to short-term volatility risks after reaching new highs [3] - The long-term outlook remains supported by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, increasing global uncertainties, and the trend of de-dollarization [3] - Investors are encouraged to continue monitoring investment opportunities in the Gold Fund ETF (518800) and Gold Stock ETF (517400) [3]