1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has entered a new round of interest - rate cut cycles, and the continued improvement of US manufacturing data is favorable for non - ferrous metals in the long - term. However, after the interest - rate cut is implemented, there will be a phased adjustment, and future trends depend on economic data [11]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different market conditions and investment strategies. For example, copper is recommended to go long on dips; zinc can be moderately long on dips; the aluminum industry chain is recommended to be short; tin short - term long positions can be appropriately taken profit; lead can be long on dips; nickel and stainless steel can be long on dips [3][4][5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, starting a new round of interest - rate cut cycles. China's one - year and five - year LPR in September remained unchanged. China's central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy and implements a moderately loose monetary policy. After the interest - rate cut, there was a phased adjustment, and future trends depend on economic data [11]. - **This Week's Focus**: The release of August PCE and September European and American manufacturing PMIs, intensive speeches by Fed officials including Powell, the release of China's September LPR, and the participation of Pan Gongsheng, Wu Qing, and Li Yunze in the "14th Five - Year Plan" series of press conferences [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Strategies**: Different non - ferrous metals have different operation logics, support and pressure areas, market judgments, and investment strategies. For example, copper is expected to strengthen in shock and is recommended to go long on dips; zinc will fluctuate in a range and can be long on dips; the aluminum industry chain is expected to be weak and is recommended to be short; tin will rebound in shock and short - term long positions can be reduced; lead will fluctuate upward and can be long on dips; nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be long on dips [13][14][15]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 80160 with a 0.31% increase; zinc closed at 22090 with a 0.20% increase; aluminum closed at 20745 with a 0.24% decrease, etc. [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector shows the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties such as silver, gold, tin, copper, etc. [18]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 80340 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 21960 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease, etc. [19][21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc. For example, for copper, there are graphs of exchange copper inventory changes and SMM social copper inventory changes; for zinc, there are graphs of zinc inventory changes and zinc concentrate processing fee changes [23][27]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage Graphs related to non - ferrous metal arbitrage are presented, including changes in the Shanghai - London ratio, basis spreads, and price differences between different varieties. For example, for copper, there are graphs of copper Shanghai - London ratio changes and the basis spread between Shanghai copper and London copper [56]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options Graphs related to non - ferrous metal options are presented, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest changes. For example, for copper, there are graphs of copper option historical volatility and copper option weighted implied volatility [72].

上海证券表示，黄金长期看多逻辑并未改变，后续可能进一步向上突破。我们认为全球去美元化、美联 储步入降息周期等黄金长期上涨的大逻辑并没有改变，如果时间拉长，黄金有望进一步向上突破。但是 这需要有新的变量发生，比如美国就业形势或通胀水平超预期下滑导致美联储态度进一步转鸽，或者特 朗普通过美联储理事人员变动成功对美联储施压，美联储超预期转鸽等等。 国新证券表示，黄金资产受去美元化趋势推动，央行持续购金提供长期支撑。短期非农数据下修及降息 预期增强市场避险情绪，金价上涨动力充沛。白银正从工业配角转向价值主角，投资逻辑由工业需求爆 发和金融属性觉醒共同驱动。AI与5G技术迭代或扩大供需缺口，金银比修复预期下，白银相较黄金具 补涨潜力。整体而言，黄金和白银资产在多重因素作用下，展现出较强的投资吸引力。 9月22日，黄金ETF（518880）收涨1.90%，当日午后成交额持续扩大，截至收盘超36亿元。同时，黄 金股票ETF（159321）当日午后亦震荡走高，收涨3.39%。 昨日黄金相关ETF表现走强，或受贵金属市场的价格走势影响。据Wind数据，9月22日盘中，现货黄金 再创纪录高位；当日现货白银盘中突破前高，创2011 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00-4.25% during its September meeting, while also revising up its economic and inflation forecasts, indicating a potential for three more rate cuts by 2025 [42][46] - The U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of a decline of 0.2%, driven by improvements in online shopping and dining services [46] Group 2 - The fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks concluded with a consensus on the TikTok issue, focusing on data security and content management, but limited progress on broader trade topics [28] - As of July, the average tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on global imports was 9.75%, with a significantly higher rate of 40.36% on imports from China, contributing approximately $10.1 billion in tariff revenue [28][31]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [1] - Following the Fed's rate cut, several banks in China have adjusted their personal USD time deposit rates, with many currently maintaining rates in the "3% range" for one-year deposits [1] - Nanjing Bank's new USD deposit rates effective from September 13 show a decrease, with one-year rates dropping from 4% to 3.0% for a minimum deposit of $100,000 [1] Group 2 - According to a chief economist at CITIC Securities, the likelihood of further declines in USD deposit rates is high due to the Fed's recent rate cut and potential future cuts [2] - The downward adjustment of USD deposit rates may lead to reduced interest income for depositors, prompting them to seek higher-yielding assets such as bonds or stocks [2] - Investors are advised to diversify their asset allocation in USD investments and closely monitor Fed policy changes and exchange rate fluctuations [2]

昨晚美联储如预期降息了25个基点，今年预计还会有两次降息，降50个基点，按照最新的点阵图，未来 两年还会各再降25个基点。 投资人听到美联储要降息，往往是高兴的，但他们如果有心去翻一下历次美联储降息周期中资产的表 现，又会不寒而栗，历史上美股的深度熊市，恰恰发生在美联储的降息周期中。 那么，美联储降息，到底是利好，还是利空，是牛市的加速器，还是熊市的开端？ 要了解这个问题，我们先来看下过去的情况，从90年代到今天，美国有7次降息周期。 01 1990年7月-1992年10月 这个的降息背景是1990年7月，按美国统计局定义，美国经济正式进入经济衰退，衰退的主要原因是80 年代末的高利率和紧缩政策逐渐压制了需求。 当时美国的联邦基金利率是8%，10年期国债利率也是8%以上，长时间扛这样的高成本绝不是一件容易 的事。而这个时候美国的储贷危机还在持续，银行受此冲击，信贷收紧了。 另一方面，80年代末美国的通胀一度较高，但到1990年开始显著回落，物价压力减轻，也给了美联储灵 活的空间。 从1990年7月开始，美联储开始降息，一直降到1992年9月，联邦基金利率从8%降到了3%。 实际美国经济在91年一季度见底了（9 ...

（文章来源：中国证券报） 人民财讯9月18日电，记者调研发现，近期在投资社交平台上，与资源周期品种相关的帖子变得越来越 多。数据显示，多个资源周期类细分板块近期走势向好。二级市场上，多只资源主题基金今年以来涨势 明显，并在近期纷纷创下净值新高。有业内人士表示，美联储降息周期来临，市场逐步开启降息交易， 流动性宽松对有色金属板块形成利好。此外，随着我国PPI指数拐点将至，资源品有望成为新一轮行情 的核心上涨品种，看好顺周期投资。 ...

在周三美股交易时间段，罗素2000指数周三一度上涨2.1%至2453.36点，自2021年11月以来首次越过历 史收盘最高点，随后回吐部分涨幅并从该水平回落。该指数最终收涨0.2%。虽然该指数仍然未能突破 2021年11月创下的历史最高点位，但是美联储宣布降息25基点之后的短暂狂飙走势，以及近期在美联储 降息预期推动下跑赢标普500指数，足以见得市场在降息背景下愈发青睐小盘股。 差一点就成功了——罗素2000指数在回吐涨幅前曾超越其历史收盘最高点 智通财经APP获悉，在美国股市创纪录式大幅上涨的大部分时间里，小盘股似乎处于观望状态，尤其是 今年以来美股大盘基准——标普500指数屡创新高的强劲上涨时间段，小盘股基准罗素2000指数未能像 标普500指数那样持续创下历史新高。如今，在美联储降息预期持续升温的大举推动之下，市场"动物精 神"全面回归，它们终于在近期短暂地加入了这场投资盛宴，并几乎终结了自新冠疫情以来持续跑输标 普500指数的低迷期。 美联储一次早已被市场所100%定价的降息举措推动罗素2000指数走高，尽管更广泛的美股市场当日收 低。美联储政策制定者们在北京时间周四凌晨决定将基准利率下调25个基点， ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.0%-4.25%, marking a 25 basis points cut and the first rate decrease since 2025 [1] - Historical analysis shows that during previous Federal Reserve rate cut cycles, the A-share market exhibited varying performance, with significant declines noted in certain periods [4] - For instance, during the 2001 rate cut period, the cumulative reduction was 475 basis points, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 20.35% [4] Group 2 - In the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve cut rates 10 times, totaling a 500 basis points reduction, while the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a dramatic decline of 63.57% [4] - The data indicates that the A-share market's performance during rate cuts has often been negative, suggesting a potential correlation between rate cuts and market downturns [4]

黄金或将迎来由投资者需求主导一轮新牛市。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通最新研报上调对金价的价格预测，在即将到来的美联储降息周期和由此引燃的强劲投资者需求的双重推动下，预计现货金价将在 2026年第一季度突破4000美元/盎司大关。 同时， 若美联储独立性受到冲击，投资者的资金轮动可能在两个季度内将金价推至5000美元高位。 这一轮涨势的核心驱动力正在发生转变。报告强调， 投资者需求已取代央行成为金价上涨的"主要催化剂"。 受美联储政策转向预期的影响，美国国债收益率 大幅走低，重新点燃了黄金ETF的资金流入。 数据显示，截至2025年9月5日的两周内，全球黄金ETF持有量增加了近72吨，是自4月中旬以来最大的资金流入。 金价已经对此作出反应。黄金在9月份迄今已上涨约6%，突破了3500美元的先前高点，当前交投于3680美元/盎司的历史新高附近。 降息周期开启，投资者重返驾驶位 报告认为，劳动力市场的疲软迹象超过了通胀担忧，这将使美联储保持鸽派立场，利率风险偏向于更低的水平。名义收益率的下降直接转化为实际收益率的走 低，这对于尤其依赖西方ETF资金流的黄金投资需求而言，是一个关键的积极因素。 根据报告，黄金市场的主 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price forecast, expecting spot gold prices to exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q1 2026, driven by strong investor demand and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][7] Group 1: Price Predictions - The report predicts an average gold price of $3,800 per ounce by Q4 2025 and a breakthrough of $4,000 per ounce in Q1 2026, which is a quarter earlier than previous estimates [7] - Gold prices have already reacted, rising approximately 6% in September, trading near historical highs of $3,680 per ounce [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The primary driver of the current gold price increase has shifted from central bank purchases to investor demand, with significant inflows into gold ETFs observed [1][3] - Historical data indicates that gold typically performs well during Federal Reserve rate cut cycles, with double-digit returns often seen within nine months of rate cuts [3][7] Group 3: Investor Behavior - The report highlights a significant inflow of nearly 72 tons of gold into global ETFs, valued at approximately $8 billion, in the two weeks leading up to September 5, 2025 [3] - Non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures have reached new highs, indicating strong investor sentiment [3] Group 4: Tail Risks and Scenarios - A potential risk identified is the erosion of Federal Reserve independence, which could lead to a significant shift of funds from U.S. Treasuries to gold, potentially pushing gold prices to $5,000 per ounce within two quarters [9][11] - The analysis suggests that even a small rotation of funds from the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market to gold could result in substantial price increases [10][11] Group 5: Central Bank Demand - Despite the positive outlook for gold, there are concerns regarding a potential sharp decline in central bank gold purchases, which could impact the sustainability of the price increase [13] - The report notes that central bank purchases in Q2 2025 were at their lowest level since Q2 2022, although average annual purchases are expected to remain high [13]