Group 1 - The article highlights a decrease in geopolitical risks following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which has positively impacted market confidence [4][10]. - Global trade conflicts have shown signs of improvement since May, with increased bilateral communication contributing to a more stable macro environment [4][10]. Group 2 - Industrial enterprises in China are experiencing a rapid decline in profit growth, with May data showing a cumulative revenue growth of 2.7% and a profit decline of 1.1% year-on-year [5][12]. - The significant drop in profit margins is attributed to rising costs and pressures, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling below -3%, affecting actual revenue growth [5][12]. Group 3 - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 index has fallen below one standard deviation of the historical mean, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [5][14]. - As of the end of June, the equity risk premium was recorded at 6.42, down from the historical mean of 6.79, suggesting a cautious outlook for future market movements [5][14]. Group 4 - The number of stocks with over 20% gains in the market has increased to 465, reflecting a 20% rise and indicating a high level of market activity [6][16]. - Despite the current market conditions, the potential for structural market trends remains, although the overall profit-making capacity may be limited [6][16]. Group 5 - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a rebound in June, closing at 3444.43 points, a 2.9% increase from the end of May, with average daily trading volume rising to 5,096 billion yuan [7][9]. - The CSI 300 index also increased by 2.5% in June, with a notable rise in daily trading volume to 2,610 billion yuan [7][9]. Group 6 - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to face technical pressure at the upper boundary of a new trading range, while the CSI 300 index is anticipated to encounter resistance from previous highs [18][20].

Group 1: Core Insights - The MSCI China Index has increased by 32% over the past year and is currently at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.5, close to its 20-year average of 11.9, raising questions about the sustainability of this growth [1] - JPMorgan identifies three key factors supporting a positive outlook for the Chinese market: initial recovery in consumption, addressing overcapacity issues, and high equity risk premium due to significantly lower interest rates [1] Group 2: Consumption Recovery - The recovery of Chinese consumption is a critical theme for the second half of 2025, with retail sales growth averaging 5.4% since 2023, down from pre-COVID levels of 9-10%, but showing signs of rebound [2] - Improving consumption will help balance supply and demand, alleviate deflationary pressures, and enhance corporate pricing power and profitability [2] - Key areas to focus on for sustained retail sales growth include expanding policy support, emphasizing consumer services, and stabilizing the real estate market, which has negatively impacted GDP by 2-2.5% annually over the past four years [2] Group 3: Addressing Overcapacity - The Chinese government is focusing on reducing overcapacity, particularly in the context of real estate control and technology access restrictions from the U.S., aiming for greater self-sufficiency in the industrial chain [7] - There is anticipation for meaningful supply-side reforms, with a focus on sectors such as automotive, materials, industrials, and technology [7] - Stocks that may benefit from industry consolidation include BYD, CATL, Chalco, Putailai, and Nippon Paint [7] Group 4: Capital Costs and Equity Risk Premium - Despite the MSCI China Index's mean reversion, the equity risk premium remains high, attributed to a significant decline in government bond yields, indicating that the Chinese stock market is still undervalued [9] - Interest rates are expected to remain low, with a forecasted 10 basis point cut by the end of 2025, currently at 1.64% for 10-year government bonds [9] - The current earnings yield of the Chinese stock market is 9%, suggesting an implied equity risk premium exceeding 7%, which is historically high compared to the U.S. [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, focusing on the impact of U.S. tariff policies, domestic fiscal policies, and market performance indicators, highlighting both opportunities and uncertainties in investment strategies. Group 1: Tariff Events and Market Impact - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff actions under the IEEPA were illegal, leading to an appeal and a temporary stay on tariffs during the appeal process, creating uncertainty in trade policies [4][8] - Despite the ongoing tariff situation, the threat to China's capital market has decreased due to the vulnerabilities exhibited by the U.S. financial market amid rising domestic contradictions [4][8] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Government Financing - The government is focusing on net financing to drive spending growth, with a target of 13.86 trillion yuan for net financing, of which 6.3 trillion yuan has been achieved by the end of May, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued [5][10] - It is anticipated that government net financing will remain high, with June potentially reaching a historical peak of 1.8 trillion yuan [10][11] Group 3: Market Performance Indicators - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 index was recorded at 6.81 at the end of May, remaining above the historical mean by one standard deviation, indicating ongoing market volatility [5][13] - In May 2025, the number of stocks with over 20% gains increased by 156% year-on-year, suggesting a recovery in market profitability, although the potential for further expansion in a volatile market is limited [6][15] Group 4: Market Index Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a rebound followed by a correction, maintaining support at the 60-day moving average, with pressure expected near the year's high [17] - The CSI 300 index experienced an initial rise but faced adjustments, with technical pressure anticipated due to the loss of support at the half-year line [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the market, highlighting that the most pessimistic expectations regarding tariffs have likely been priced in, and there are signs of potential recovery in the stock market following recent tariff announcements [4][10][12]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of April 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,279.03 points, down 1.7% from March, while the CSI 300 Index fell 3% to 3,770.57 points [7][9]. - The average daily trading volume in April was 5,153 billion yuan for the Shanghai market, a decrease of 13.5% compared to March [9]. - The highest and lowest points for the Shanghai Composite Index in April were 3,361.13 and 3,040.69, respectively, indicating a volatile month [7][9]. Group 2: Economic Data and Policy Expectations - The overall economy remains in a dormant state, with the total revenue growth for the A-share market continuing to show negative growth, although the decline is narrowing [5][15]. - In March 2025, broad fiscal revenue decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 10.1%, indicating a potential for policy support to mitigate external demand risks [17]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risk Premium - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 Index reached 7.03 at the end of April, exceeding the historical average by more than one standard deviation, suggesting a period of panic selling followed by gradual recovery [6][19]. - The number of stocks with a price increase of over 20% in April was 151, a decrease of 30% from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the market's profit-making effect, although it has not yet reached historical lows [20]. Group 4: Future Market Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern, oscillating between established support and resistance levels [21]. - The CSI 300 Index has shown signs of recovery after a sharp decline, but faces significant resistance at the 60-day moving average [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In April, the market rebounded from the bottom. Wind All - A closed down 3.15% monthly, with different performance among various indices. The US tariff war, though temporarily halted, may recur due to its underlying financial issues. Attention should be paid to the growth indicators in the A - share annual and quarterly reports, and the long - term trend of A - shares is mainly affected by the de - leveraging process of various sectors under the debt cycle. Also, capital expenditure and profitability of domestic and foreign demand - related sectors need to be monitored [3][6]. - The equity risk premium is at a relatively high historical level. Short - term funds support the stock market, but market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the momentum of both fund inflows and market sentiment has weakened weekly [3][9][18]. - Sectors with high overseas revenue are more sensitive to tariff policies as most of them are in the development stage with high capital expenditure and low ROE, adopting a thin - profit - high - turnover model [3][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - **Index Performance**: In April, Wind All - A closed down 3.15% monthly. Specifically, CSI 1000 fell 4.61%, CSI 500 fell 3.94%, SSE 50 fell 0.63%, and SSE 300 fell 2.58%. Weekly, small - cap indices rebounded more strongly, with CSI 1000 rising 1.85% and SSE 50 falling 0.33% [3][6]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US tariff war, which started on April 2nd, has temporarily ended. However, due to the US's insufficient financial account financing ability and the need to balance the current account deficit, tariff policies may change again in the future [3][6]. - **Financial Reports**: At the end of April, A - shares will fully disclose the 2024 annual reports and 2025 first - quarter reports. The market is more concerned about nominal growth data, and the year - on - year revenue growth rate in the financial reports can provide indirect verification. In the first three quarters of 2024, the cumulative year - on - year revenue growth rate of A - shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, excluding the financial sector, was - 1.7% ( - 0.6% in the semi - annual report) [3][6]. 2. Market Indicators - **Interest Rate and Valuation**: At the end of April, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond was 1.67%. The dynamic P/E ratio of Wind All - A was 18.22 times, and the equity risk premium was still at a relatively high historical level. The PE_ttm of CSI 1000 was 37.23, and that of SSE 300 was 12.26, with both valuation levels slightly lower than last month [9]. - **Fund Flow**: From April 1st to April 24th, the net subscription of the four major broad - based index ETFs reached 193.6 billion yuan, with a single - day net subscription of 100.3 billion yuan on April 7th, a record high. However, the margin trading balance decreased by 110.5 billion yuan during the same period, indicating a significant cooling of market sentiment. Weekly, both showed weakening momentum [18]. 3. Overseas Revenue Sectors - **Industry Concentration**: Sectors with high overseas revenue are mainly concentrated in three industrial chains: high - end technology manufacturing, new energy vehicle industry chain, and energy and chemical products [20]. - **Sensitivity to Tariffs**: Most sectors with high overseas revenue are in the development and expansion stage, with high capital expenditure ratios (8% - 18% of revenue). Their ROE is lower than the A - share average (around 7.8%), adopting a thin - profit - high - turnover model, making them more sensitive to tariff policies [20]. 4. Policy and Data - **Domestic Policies**: Multiple policies have been introduced, including a 12 - trillion - yuan debt - resolution plan, a mention of "moderately loose monetary policy", a 2025 GDP growth target of 5%, a fiscal deficit rate of 4%, and a fertility reward policy in Hohhot [21]. - **US Tariff Policy**: The US "reciprocal tariff" plan was implemented on April 3rd. As of April 12, 2025, the US tariff rate on Chinese imports increased by 125%. The US also issued a tariff exemption list and a tariff suspension policy for some countries, while China issued a white paper on Sino - US economic and trade relations [21]. - **Economic Data**: In March, China's exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year (in US dollars), and imports decreased by 4.3% year - on - year (in US dollars). In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in March was 5.9%, exceeding the average level of the demand side [21]. 5. Index and Option Performance - **Index Performance**: CSI 1000 fell 4.15% monthly, CSI 500 rose 3.94% monthly, SSE 300 fell 2.58% monthly, and SSE 50 fell 0.63% monthly, with the basis discount annualization showing a widening divergence for all [29][33][36][38]. - **Option Indicators**: Charts of historical volatility, volatility cones,持仓PCR, and 交易PCR for CSI 1000, SSE 300, and SSE 50 options are provided, but no specific analysis of these indicators is given in the text [42][51][58]. - **Trading Slippage**: Charts of IM long - and short - position trading slippage are provided, but no specific analysis is given [66]. 6. Corporate Profitability - **Low - level Profitability**: The profitability of listed companies remains at a relatively low level. In the third quarter of 2024, the revenue and net profit growth rates of the entire market, excluding the financial sector, showed different degrees of decline [77]. - **Financial Indicators of Indices**: The 2024 semi - annual report shows various financial indicators of different indices, including ROE, operating net profit margin, asset turnover, etc., with differences in growth and profitability among different indices [79].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent market adjustments, particularly in the U.S. stock market, on domestic capital markets, highlighting the need for policy responses to stimulate economic recovery and address tariff impacts [4][9]. Market Review - In March 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight increase of 0.45%, closing at 3,335.75 points, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.07% to 3,887.31 points [6][8]. - Daily trading volume in Shanghai decreased significantly, with an average of 5,955 billion yuan, down 15.3% from February [8]. - The highest and lowest points for the Shanghai Composite Index in March were 3,439.05 and 3,297.53, respectively, aligning with expectations [6][8]. April Market Analysis and Outlook Tariff Impact - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to adjustments in the U.S. stock market, which in turn affects domestic market expectations, particularly for technology stocks [4][9]. Economic Data Verification - April is a critical month for assessing economic conditions as the effects of the Spring Festival fade, and quarterly reports from listed companies are released, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape [4][13]. - There is a noted decline in fiscal revenue growth, raising concerns about the effectiveness of fiscal policies and the need for measures to stimulate domestic consumption [13]. Equity Risk Premium - As of March 2025, the equity risk premium for the CSI 300 Index was recorded at 6.63, slightly down from February, remaining near historical averages [5][15]. Market Profitability - The number of stocks with gains exceeding 20% dropped significantly to 215 in March, a 70% decrease, indicating a contraction in market profitability [5][17]. Major Market Index Predictions Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai Composite Index faced resistance and is testing support levels from mid-term moving averages, with a notable drop after reaching a peak in mid-March [19]. CSI 300 Index - The CSI 300 Index fell below its 120-day moving average for the first time since the market rally began in September of the previous year, indicating potential pressure at higher levels [21].

编者按：千帆"竞技"，快者胜。在群雄逐鹿人工智能（AI）时代之际，DeepSeek的横空出世无疑成功喷出 了中国科技创新的"马赫环"，不仅让世人对中国科技创新的速度和成果高看一眼，更是让海内外投资者对 于中国的叙事逻辑进行了重构。 当叙事逻辑被重构，中国资产获重估也就变得理所当然。在今年全国两会上，证监会主席吴清表示， DeepSeek的崛起，正引领着中国资产价值重估。 如何抓住中国资产重估带来的广泛而重大的投资机遇？即日起，证券时报郑重推出"中国资产重估"专栏， 记者通过深度访谈众多国内外知名投资机构负责人、研究专家、投行领军人物和高科技企业，逐一剖析重 估逻辑，旨在为投资者带来具有实效性和前瞻性的参考视角。 年内中国股市表现亮眼，受益于科技板块以及DeepSeek的行业和企业都出现了明显的估值上修。而早在2024 年4月，瑞银便上调中国市场评级至超配，近日再次强调中国市场跑赢的概率高于跑输，维持超配中国的判 断。 "短期来看，今年中国股票市场估值提升的最大动能，来自于三个叙事变化：基本面及企业盈利出现反弹，人 工智能发展提振科技投资风险偏好，以及全方位的政策支持助力股市估值修复。"瑞银证券中国股票策略分析 ...