光期研究 见微知著 股指期货策略月报 2 0 2 5 年 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 股指期货：关税战告一段落，财报季即将来袭 | | 4月，触底反弹，Wind全A月度收跌3.15%，中证1000下跌4.61%，中证500下跌3.94%，沪深300下跌2.58%，上证50下跌 | | --- | --- | | | 0.63%。周度来看，小盘指数反弹力度更强，中证1000收涨1.85%，上证50下跌0.33%。美国关税战自4月2日起，目前暂告一段 | | | 落，但美国关税战本质是其金融账户融资能力不足，导致其企图通过缩小经常账户逆差进行再平衡，该问题短期内难以解决， | | | 关税政策未来仍存在反复地可能。 | | | 4月底，A股将完整披露2024年年报和2025年一季报，其中成长性指标值得关注。2025年第一季度GDP同比5.4%，取得开 | | | 门红，再起基础上市场更加关注名义增速数据，财报中营收同比增速等数据可以进行侧面验证， 2024年前三季度，沪深两市 | | | A股剔除金融板块后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent market adjustments, particularly in the U.S. stock market, on domestic capital markets, highlighting the need for policy responses to stimulate economic recovery and address tariff impacts [4][9]. Market Review - In March 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight increase of 0.45%, closing at 3,335.75 points, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.07% to 3,887.31 points [6][8]. - Daily trading volume in Shanghai decreased significantly, with an average of 5,955 billion yuan, down 15.3% from February [8]. - The highest and lowest points for the Shanghai Composite Index in March were 3,439.05 and 3,297.53, respectively, aligning with expectations [6][8]. April Market Analysis and Outlook Tariff Impact - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to adjustments in the U.S. stock market, which in turn affects domestic market expectations, particularly for technology stocks [4][9]. Economic Data Verification - April is a critical month for assessing economic conditions as the effects of the Spring Festival fade, and quarterly reports from listed companies are released, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape [4][13]. - There is a noted decline in fiscal revenue growth, raising concerns about the effectiveness of fiscal policies and the need for measures to stimulate domestic consumption [13]. Equity Risk Premium - As of March 2025, the equity risk premium for the CSI 300 Index was recorded at 6.63, slightly down from February, remaining near historical averages [5][15]. Market Profitability - The number of stocks with gains exceeding 20% dropped significantly to 215 in March, a 70% decrease, indicating a contraction in market profitability [5][17]. Major Market Index Predictions Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai Composite Index faced resistance and is testing support levels from mid-term moving averages, with a notable drop after reaching a peak in mid-March [19]. CSI 300 Index - The CSI 300 Index fell below its 120-day moving average for the first time since the market rally began in September of the previous year, indicating potential pressure at higher levels [21].

编者按：千帆"竞技"，快者胜。在群雄逐鹿人工智能（AI）时代之际，DeepSeek的横空出世无疑成功喷出 了中国科技创新的"马赫环"，不仅让世人对中国科技创新的速度和成果高看一眼，更是让海内外投资者对 于中国的叙事逻辑进行了重构。 当叙事逻辑被重构，中国资产获重估也就变得理所当然。在今年全国两会上，证监会主席吴清表示， DeepSeek的崛起，正引领着中国资产价值重估。 如何抓住中国资产重估带来的广泛而重大的投资机遇？即日起，证券时报郑重推出"中国资产重估"专栏， 记者通过深度访谈众多国内外知名投资机构负责人、研究专家、投行领军人物和高科技企业，逐一剖析重 估逻辑，旨在为投资者带来具有实效性和前瞻性的参考视角。 年内中国股市表现亮眼，受益于科技板块以及DeepSeek的行业和企业都出现了明显的估值上修。而早在2024 年4月，瑞银便上调中国市场评级至超配，近日再次强调中国市场跑赢的概率高于跑输，维持超配中国的判 断。 "短期来看，今年中国股票市场估值提升的最大动能，来自于三个叙事变化：基本面及企业盈利出现反弹，人 工智能发展提振科技投资风险偏好，以及全方位的政策支持助力股市估值修复。"瑞银证券中国股票策略分析 ...