Group 1 - The spot gold price has surpassed $4500 per ounce for the first time in history, with a cumulative increase of over 71% this year [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1411 RMB per gram, an increase of 8 RMB from the previous day, and 44 RMB from December 22 [1] - The increase in gold prices is supported by macroeconomic uncertainties and safe-haven demand, with expectations for gold to continue its upward trend after a period of high volatility [1] Group 2 - A report from Dongfang Jincheng indicates that the U.S. unemployment rate in November confirms a weakening labor market, which supports expectations for continued monetary easing and further increases in gold prices [3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued a notice to enhance market risk control due to increasing instability and volatility in precious metal prices, urging members to improve risk prevention awareness [3] - The largest gold jewelry wholesale market in China, Shenzhen Shui Bei, has made significant adjustments to its pricing system, no longer distinguishing between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold" [3][4] Group 3 - The adjustment in the pricing system at Shui Bei is attributed to the recent tax reforms affecting the profitability of member and non-member units, as well as to avoid misleading consumers [4]

Group 1 - Spot gold has surpassed the $4500 per ounce mark for the first time, reaching a new historical high of $4523.4 per ounce, with an increase of approximately $1880 per ounce for the year [1] - The price of certain gold jewelry brands has risen, with Chow Sang Sang's gold price at ¥1411 per gram, up ¥8 from the previous day and ¥44 from December 22; Lao Feng Xiang at ¥1406, up ¥7 from the previous day and ¥41 from December 22; and Chow Tai Fook at ¥1410, up ¥7 from the previous day and ¥42 from December 22 [3] - A report from Dongfang Jincheng indicates that the rise in gold prices is primarily due to the weak labor market in the U.S., as evidenced by the November unemployment rate, which supports expectations for continued monetary easing and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, thereby bolstering gold prices [4] Group 2 - Analysis from Wang Yongzhong, Director of the International Commodity Research Office at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, suggests that silver, being a precious metal like gold, is expected to experience a "catch-up demand" due to its relatively low valuation compared to gold, which has already seen significant price increases [5]

Group 1 - Spot gold has surpassed the $4500 per ounce mark for the first time, reaching a new historical high of $4523.4 per ounce, with an increase of approximately $1880 per ounce year-to-date [1] - The price of gold jewelry has increased, with brands such as Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang raising their prices by 8 to 44 yuan per gram compared to previous days [3] - The report from Dongfang Jincheng indicates that the rise in gold prices is supported by the weak labor market in the U.S., with expectations for monetary easing continuing, which may lead to further increases in gold prices [4] Group 2 - Analysis from Wang Yongzhong of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences suggests that silver, being a precious metal like gold, is experiencing a "catch-up demand" due to its relatively low valuation compared to gold [5]

Group 1 - The spot gold price has surpassed $4500 per ounce for the first time, reaching a peak of $4511.93 per ounce, and is currently reported at $4509.73 per ounce, marking a historical high with an increase of approximately $1880 per ounce year-to-date [1] - The spot silver price has also reached a historical high of $71.87 per ounce, currently reported at $71.78 per ounce, reflecting a rise of 0.45% [1] Group 2 - The increase in gold prices is attributed to the weakening labor market in the U.S., as indicated by the November unemployment rate, which supports expectations for continued monetary easing [3] - The current high core inflation in the U.S. is slowing down, and the rising unemployment rate provides data support for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may further bolster gold prices [3] - Silver, being a precious metal like gold, is expected to experience a "catch-up demand" due to its relatively lower valuation compared to gold, following gold's initial price surge [3]

期货研究报告 2025年12月22日 周报 国债期货：震荡属性增加 关注因素：1.股债跷跷板逻辑是否依然成立；2.货币宽松预期；3.年底资金面情况 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究报告 1.期货市场回顾 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 市场回顾与展望：年底中央经济工作会议，实施适度宽松的货币政策和更加积极的财政政策，加大逆 周期和跨周期调节力度。在美联储降息及人民币汇率缓慢升级的背景下，货币政策打开了空间，在2026年 即将到来之际，市场对明年年初货币宽松的预期增加，股债跷跷板逻辑有转换为股债双牛逻辑的预期增加。 从年底公布的经济数据来看，经济依然承压，经济基本面依然对债市存在一定支持。年底的中央政治 局会议和中央经济工作会议，定调明年经济工作，强调要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政 赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，重视解决地方财政困难。要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用 降准降息等多种政策工具。目前来看，在货币宽松预期的支撑下，年底资金面的扰动较为有限，如果资金 利率不再走高，那么债市的利空因素减弱，债市的震荡属性 ...

Group 1 - The market sentiment towards the bond market has improved due to the expectation of monetary easing, leading to a weakening of the upward momentum for the 30-year interest rate in the short term [1] - The 30-10Y yield spread is expected to remain volatile between 35-45 basis points due to supply pressure and nominal growth recovery anticipated next year [1] - Long-term bonds may see a slight increase in January if economic indicators and equity market movements are favorable, with the 10-year government bond yield potentially rising to 1.9% or higher [1] Group 2 - As of December 19, 2025, the active bond index for 5-10 year government bonds has increased by 0.06%, with the government bond ETF for this duration showing active trading with a turnover of 27.23% and a transaction volume of 530 million yuan [3] - The government bond ETF for 5-10 years has reached a new high in scale at 1.949 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 31.17 million yuan over the last 10 trading days [3] - The management fee for the government bond ETF is 0.15%, and the tracking error over the last three months is 0.023% [3][4]

Core Insights - The third round of bond market adjustments in 2025 may not be over yet, but there is potential for a delayed cross-year market rally if monetary easing expectations increase in January-February 2026 [1][3][27] Group 1: Understanding Recent Adjustments - The current bond market adjustment shows a structural characteristic where ultra-long-term bonds lead the decline, with the 30-year treasury bond reaching a peak yield of 2.28% on December 16, while the 10-year bond primarily experienced a corrective trend [1][11] - The adjustment in ultra-long-term bonds reflects weakened both allocation and trading power, with a significant increase in the supply of bonds over 10 years, reaching 1.86 trillion yuan by December 19, 2025, accounting for 11.66% of total bond issuance [13][19] - The adjustment pattern indicates that the third round may still be ongoing, potentially mirroring the structure of the second round, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating in an adjustment-recovery-adjustment manner [24][25] Group 2: Comparison of Adjustment Rounds - In 2025, there have been three notable rounds of adjustments, with the first round driven by unexpected tightening of the funding environment, leading to a significant rise in short-term rates [2][19] - The second round was characterized by a simultaneous rise in stock prices and a decline in bond prices, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and a reduction in bullish sentiment towards bonds [22] - The third round, starting from November 3, 2025, has shown a different driving force, primarily influenced by institutional behavior and the resumption of bond trading, rather than the funding and stock-bond dynamics that characterized the previous rounds [2][22] Group 3: Cross-Year Market Trends - Historically, the bond market has exhibited a calendar effect around the New Year, often showing upward trends before the Spring Festival, with notable increases in bond yields observed in 2022, 2024, and 2025 [3][26] - The 2025 cross-year market saw a decline of approximately 50 basis points in the 10-year bond yield from T-60 to T-18 days before the Spring Festival, followed by a period of consolidation [3][26] - If the third round of adjustments continues, the potential for a delayed cross-year rally remains, contingent on favorable monetary policy developments [27]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The reading of the bond market's micro - trading thermometer this period has rebounded to 43%, up 6 percentage points from the previous period [15]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remains at 15%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of over - heated indicators has decreased to 3 (15%), the number in the neutral range has increased to 7 (35%), and the number in the cold range has decreased to 10 (50%) [20]. - The average percentile of various types of indicators has increased, but the overall average percentile of all indicators has decreased by 9 percentage points to 37% [20][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. This period's micro - trading thermometer reading rebounds to 43% - The TL/T long - short ratio, 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio, and the percentile of the expected monetary tightness and looseness have increased by 55, 19, and 11 percentage points respectively. Most other indicators have slightly rebounded. Only the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio, fund duration, allocation disk strength, listed company wealth management purchase volume, and the percentile of the commodity price ratio indicator have slightly declined [3][15]. - Currently, indicators with high congestion include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio, 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio, and institutional leverage [15]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remains at 15% 3.2.1. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio increases - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of over - heated indicators remains at 50%, the proportion in the neutral range rises to 33%, and the proportion in the cold range drops to 17%. The TL/T long - short ratio percentile rebounds significantly by 55 percentage points to 69%, rising from the cold to the neutral range. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio, full - market turnover ratio, and institutional leverage percentile increase by 19, 2, and 7 percentage points respectively [21]. - Specifically, the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio slightly drops to 4.10, with its past - year percentile decreasing by 3 percentage points to 97%, still in the over - heated range. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio rises to 0.97, with its past - year percentile rising by 19 percentage points to 98% [23][24]. 3.2.2. The expectation of monetary easing slightly increases - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of over - heated indicators drops to 0%, the proportion in the neutral range rises to 38%, and the proportion in the cold range drops to 63%. The percentile of the expected monetary tightness and looseness increases by 11 percentage points, rising from the cold to the neutral range. The percentiles of the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume and fund divergence increase by 20 percentage points, while the percentiles of other indicators slightly decline [29]. - Specifically, the TL/T long - short ratio rises to 0.99, with its past - year percentile rising by 55 percentage points to 69%, moving from the cold to the neutral range. The full - market turnover ratio rebounds to 16.85%, with its past - year percentile rising by 2 percentage points to 8%. The institutional leverage rises to 88.62%, with its past - year percentile rising by 7 percentage points to 96%. The long - term Treasury bond trading volume ratio drops to 65.89%, with its past - year percentile decreasing by 18 percentage points to 55%. The fund duration remains at 2.88, with its past - year percentile dropping by 2 percentage points to 16%. The fund divergence remains at 0.56, with its past - year percentile rising by 2 percentage points to 37%. The bond fund profit - taking pressure drops to 17.08%, with its past - year percentile dropping by 46 percentage points to 27%, moving from the over - heated to the cold range. The expected monetary tightness and looseness index remains at 0.93, with its past - year percentile rising by 11 percentage points to 44%, moving from the cold to the neutral range. The allocation disk strength drops to 0.09%, with its past - year percentile dropping by 4 percentage points to 53%. The listed company wealth management purchase volume drops to 30.1 billion, with its past - year percentile dropping by 2 percentage points to 10% [29][30]. 3.2.3. The percentiles of policy and market interest rate spreads both rebound by 2 percentage points - The policy interest rate spread remains at 2bp, with its percentile slightly rising by 2 percentage points to 57%, still in the neutral range. The credit spread and IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread narrow by 3bp and 1bp to 57bp and 0bp respectively, the agricultural development - state development bank spread remains at 1bp, and the average spread of the three narrows by 1bp to 19bp, with its percentile rebounding by 2 percentage points to 52%, still in the neutral range [33]. 3.2.4. The percentile of the real - estate price ratio rises by 6 percentage points - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range remains at 100%. The percentile of the commodity price ratio drops by 5 percentage points to 22%, and the percentile of the real - estate price ratio rises by 6 percentage points to 6%, while the percentiles of other indicators change little [36]. - Specifically, the market interest rate spread's percentile rebounds to 52%, still in the neutral range. The policy interest rate spread's percentile rises to 57%, still in the neutral range. The stock - bond price ratio drops to - 22.5%, with its past - year percentile remaining at 0%. The commodity price ratio drops to - 40.6%, with its past - year percentile dropping by 5 percentage points to 22%. The real - estate price ratio rebounds to - 81.6%, with its past - year percentile rising by 6 percentage points to 6%. The consumer goods price ratio remains at - 81.8%, with its past - year percentile remaining at 0% [36][37][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect failed again, with both the stock and bond markets rising and falling together. Long-term interest rates fluctuated sharply between the "reality of loose money" and the "frustration of strong expectations," and the oversold of ultra-long-duration assets reflected the crowding of market funds and the fragility of market sentiment [3][91]. - In the last four trading weeks of the year, the fact that the "sales new rules" have not fully "landed" remains the main market concern, but the approaching important meetings have restored the "loose money" expectation. The focus of market gaming may still be the emotional fluctuations caused by marginal policy changes [3][92]. - The report maintains the judgment of a recovery market in December but expects the downward space of interest rates to be relatively limited. It is recommended to adopt a left-side layout configuration rhythm, prioritize switching positions to medium - and short - term treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, and pay attention to trading opportunities of secondary perpetual bonds of the same term. As the meeting window approaches, gradually increase the offensive nature of the portfolio, control the overall duration center of the portfolio within the medium - to long - term range of 5 - 7 years, and avoid high - congestion assets [3][92][93]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Important Matters - On December 5, 2025, the central bank will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tendered, multi - price - winning bidder - selected买断式逆回购 operation. The net investment of the central bank in treasury bonds in November was 5 billion yuan, far lower than the market's relatively optimistic expectation of 100 billion yuan. On December 5, 2025, six major banks stopped selling 5 - year large - denomination certificate of deposit products [6][9]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From December 1 to 5, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net investment of - 84.8 billion yuan. It is expected that the basic currency will have a maturity withdrawal of 66.38 billion yuan from December 8 to 12, 2025. At the beginning of the month, the fund market was generally loose, and DR001 fell below 1.3% for the first time this year [14][15]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit last week was 495.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 63.54 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing scale was 47.1 billion yuan, an increase of 289.69 billion yuan from the previous week. The issuance interest rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit generally increased last week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit generally increased last week [25][31][34]. 3.3 Bond Market - In the primary market, the supply scale of interest - rate bonds decreased last week, with an actual issuance of 430.717 billion yuan and a net financing of 128.844 billion yuan. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds in 2025 was about 6.23 trillion yuan, and that of various local bonds was about 7.11 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase compared with the average values from 2021 to 2024. As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 had reached 2.29 trillion yuan, mainly with long - term and ultra - long - term maturities [38][44][48]. - In the secondary market, at the beginning of the month, the short - term interest rates were stable, while the ultra - long - term interest rates continued to be affected by market noise and increased significantly. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.01BP, - 1.46BP, 1.39BP, 0.17BP, 0.68BP, and 7.20BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y treasury bond yield spread increased from 43.95BP to 44.64BP. The yields of the same - term CDB bonds also changed, and the 10Y - 1Y CDB bond yield spread increased from 34.94BP to 37.66BP. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds increased slightly [51]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the leveraged trading scale was generally stable due to the relatively loose fund market. In the cash bond market, state - owned banks significantly increased their holdings of treasury bonds within 5 years and local bonds within 10 years; rural commercial banks mainly increased their holdings of 5 - 10 - year policy financial bonds and treasury bonds over 5 years; insurance companies continued to prefer local bonds over 10 years; securities firms and funds were the main sellers last week [68][73]. - In October 2025, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.77%, an increase of about 0.06 percentage points from September. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions in the inter - bank market in October 2025 were about 110.31%, 191.29%, and 132.17% respectively [68]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures increased by 2.47% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained flat, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 5.02% week - on - week, the cement price index decreased by 0.40% week - on - week, and the South China Glass Index decreased by 4.70% week - on - week. The CCFI index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week, and the BDI index increased by 9.92% week - on - week. In terms of food prices, the wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% week - on - week, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 3.31% week - on - week. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures increased by 0.09% and 1.91% respectively week - on - week. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.07 last week [88]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The report maintains the judgment of a recovery market in December but expects the downward space of interest rates to be relatively limited. It is recommended to adopt a left - side layout configuration rhythm, prioritize switching positions to medium - and short - term treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, and pay attention to trading opportunities of secondary perpetual bonds of the same term. As the meeting window approaches, gradually increase the offensive nature of the portfolio, control the overall duration center of the portfolio within the medium - to long - term range of 5 - 7 years, and avoid high - congestion assets [3][92][93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market at the end of the year can be more optimistic. For the short - end, there is high configuration and trading value, and inter - bank certificates of deposit rates may decline unexpectedly at the end of the year. For the long - end, with the expansion of the term spread, there is room for repair, and the warming of trading sentiment may drive the long - end to re - price monetary easing, manifested as a limited compression of the term spread [3][5][19]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Can the Upward Trend of the Bond Market Continue? - **View Review**: The bond market in the fourth quarter may move in a volatile manner. The 30 - year minus 10 - year and 10 - year minus 1 - year treasury bond spreads have reflected the repair of risk preference. The liquidity, capital situation, and short - end interest rate valuations are reasonable, and the current bond market has allocation value. Supply pressure is about to ease, there may be an opportunity for monetary easing, and redemption pressure will persist. In a stable and loose capital environment, inter - bank certificates of deposit are in a high - configuration and high - trading value range and may decline unexpectedly at the end of the year [3][11]. - **Unexpected Bond Market Performance in Late October**: The repair of the bond market in the last week of October exceeded expectations. Some investors were surprised that the bond market remained stable after the broader market index stabilized at 4,000 points, and it seems that the buying power of trading accounts is continuously returning [3][11]. - **Central Bank Bond - Buying Restart**: It should be understood from the perspective of "continuation". The scale of net purchases may not exceed last year, and the increase in liquidity and buying power it provides may be limited. It should be understood more from the perspective of expectation repair and signaling. It can be regarded as a turning point for the re - warming of monetary easing expectations, which is a projection of trading sentiment. As the bond market trading sentiment is being repaired and the capital situation remains loose, the trading sentiment can be projected onto the expectation of monetary easing again [3][12][13]. - **Fading Negative Factors in the Bond Market**: The negative factors in the bond market at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year are gradually fading. The expectation of the pulling effect of the broad fiscal policy has been digested. Although the new policy - based financial instruments may have a greater pulling effect on investment demand than before, the bond market's expectation trading may be close to full. The impact of the local government bond scale and the public - offering fee rate new regulations may not be completely exhausted, but there is a basis for the repair of bond market sentiment [4][17][19]. 2. Risk Warning Not included as required.