Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in gold mining stocks, which have fallen more sharply than gold prices, driven by market expectations of an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and subsequent drops in international gold prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 22, the Shanghai gold (au7777) fell by 4.75%, closing at 943.3 yuan per gram, while London spot gold hit a low of 4002 USD per ounce [1] - Gold mining stocks, including Shandong Gold (600547.SH), Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH), and Chifeng Gold (600988.SH), experienced collective declines, with closing drops nearing or exceeding 4% [1] - The recent market trend saw gold and gold mining stocks rise for nearly two months due to factors such as U.S. government shutdowns, escalating trade tensions, and significant central bank purchases, peaking on October 14 before a correction began [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Industry experts believe that despite the short-term sharp decline in gold prices, the expectations of monetary easing remain a medium-term positive for precious metals [1] - For gold mining stocks, the larger previous gains have led to earlier and more significant corrections, with additional fundamental factors to consider, as some companies reported third-quarter results that fell short of expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in gold prices and gold mining stocks due to market expectations of a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite previous upward trends driven by various economic factors [3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - On October 22, gold prices fell significantly, with Shanghai gold (au7777) down 4.75% to 943.3 yuan per gram, and London spot gold hitting a low of 4002 USD per ounce [3]. - Gold mining stocks also experienced sharp declines, with companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold seeing closing drops of nearly or over 4% [3]. - The recent rally in gold prices lasted nearly two months, driven by factors such as U.S. government shutdowns, trade tensions, and central bank purchases, but peaked on October 14, leading to a correction of over a week [3]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts believe that despite the short-term drop in gold prices, the medium-term outlook remains positive due to expectations of monetary easing, which is favorable for precious metals [4]. - The correlation between gold mining stocks and gold prices is strong but not absolute, as stock prices are also influenced by overall market performance and specific company news [4]. - There is a tendency for gold mining stocks to be overhyped, with their price increases outpacing gold prices prior to mid-October, leading to a necessary correction [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The recent drop in gold prices is viewed as temporary, with potential for future increases driven by rising global tensions, growing distrust in currencies, and increased demand for safe-haven assets [4]. - As gold mining companies release their third-quarter earnings, some results have not met market expectations, causing investor uncertainty regarding the profitability of these stocks [4]. - The upcoming U.S.-China talks are being monitored closely, as any positive developments could dampen demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets [5].

Group 1 - The market anticipates a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to a significant drop in international gold prices [1] - On October 22, the Shanghai gold price (au7777) fell by 4.75%, closing at 943.3 yuan per gram, while London spot gold hit a low of 4002 USD per ounce [1] - Gold mining stocks also experienced sharp declines, with companies like Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Chifeng Gold seeing closing drops nearing or exceeding 4% [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in gold prices was driven by factors such as U.S. government shutdowns, escalating trade tensions, and significant central bank purchases, leading to a peak on October 14 [1] - Following a joint statement from European leaders on October 21 supporting negotiations for a ceasefire, gold prices plummeted [1] - Analysts believe that despite the short-term drop, the expectation of monetary easing remains a medium-term positive for precious metals [1] Group 3 - According to Everbright Securities strategist Wu Lixian, the recent pullback in gold prices is a normal and healthy phenomenon after a rapid rise to nearly 4400 USD per ounce [2] - Gold mining stocks are highly correlated with gold prices, but this correlation is not absolute, as stock prices are also influenced by overall market performance and specific company news [2] - Red Ant Capital's investment director Li Zeming noted that gold mining stocks often experience excessive speculation, and the recent decline is primarily due to significant adjustments in gold and other precious metal prices [2] Group 4 - Fund manager Wang Xiang from Bosera Fund mentioned that traders are currently focused on the upcoming China-U.S. talks, which could suppress demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver if tangible progress is made [3]

Group 1 - International gold and silver prices have experienced a significant drop, with Shanghai gold and silver futures opening down over 5%, and London spot gold hitting a low of $4002 per ounce [1] - The recent decline in precious metal prices follows a period of rapid increases, with gold reaching a peak of $4086 per ounce and silver dropping below $50 per ounce, indicating a correction after a sustained overbought condition [1] - Despite the short-term drop, analysts believe that the expectations of monetary easing remain intact, suggesting that this is not a trend reversal for precious metals [1] Group 2 - HSBC remains optimistic about gold, projecting that its upward momentum could last until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases, ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., and expectations of further monetary easing, with a target price of $5000 [2] - Huaxin Fund has noted that short-term trading in gold is overheated, with volatility indicators reaching high levels, suggesting potential risks in the market [2] - Analysts indicate that while central bank purchases and growing investment demand will support long-term price increases for precious metals, investors should remain cautious of short-term adjustments due to trading and event-driven shocks [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The commodity market may fluctuate in the short - term due to uncertainties such as Trump's trade policy, Sino - US trade negotiations, the US government shutdown, and geopolitical situations. The precious metals sector has strong potential, while other sectors have different trends [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Performance Review - The commodity market declined by 1.14% last week. Only the precious metals sector rose by 10.76%, while the non - ferrous, agricultural products, black, and energy - chemical sectors fell by 1.07%, 1.52%, 1.66%, and 3.43% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased with a narrowing margin, and the precious metals and energy - chemical sectors had significant volatility increases. The overall market scale increased, with only the non - ferrous sector having net capital outflows, mainly concentrated in Shanghai copper [2][6]. - Among specific varieties, gold, silver, and soybean No.1 had the highest gains of 10.9%, 10.53%, and 2.03% respectively, while glass, crude oil, and fuel oil had the largest declines of 9.28%, 6.34%, and 5.54% respectively [6]. 2. Outlook for Different Sectors Precious Metals - The uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations strengthens the sector's hedging properties. Powell's statement that balance - sheet reduction may end in the next few months strengthens the expectation of monetary easing, leading to a significant rise in the sector. The actual overall position of gold is at a low level, with potential for further growth. Short - term fluctuations may intensify [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - The Fed's October Beige Book shows weakening consumer spending and a labor shortage. Domestically, the economy continues to improve. The raw material supply is tight, and inventory increases, with overall supply and demand remaining relatively loose. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, waiting for a clear macro - environment [3]. Black Metals - The apparent demand for rebar has recovered significantly after the holiday but is still weak year - on - year. Production continues to decline, and inventory has decreased. The high - level hot metal has slightly declined, and downstream carrying capacity is insufficient. With the contraction of steel mill profits, the pressure for steel mills to cut production increases, and the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain strengthens. The price of coking coal may be prone to rise and difficult to fall. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, with coking coal and coke relatively stronger [3]. Energy - Oil prices continued to decline last week. The US refinery utilization rate dropped sharply, causing crude oil inventory to increase by 352,400 barrels more than expected. The three major institutions' October reports raised the supply - demand surplus for this year and next year by 210,000 barrels per day and 460,000 barrels per day respectively. The easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation and Sino - US trade games have increased market risk - aversion. Oil prices may continue to be weak in the short - term [3]. Chemicals - For polyester products, the industrial chain may continue to be weak due to weak oil prices and weakening demand expectations. For building materials, PVC domestic demand is stable, but exports face policy pressure, and cost support is not obvious. Glass has high intermediate inventory pressure and continues to be under pressure [4]. Agricultural Products - The sales progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, and China has not purchased US new - season soybeans, putting pressure on US soybean prices. Domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, and soybean meal inventory is high. If Sino - US trade relations do not improve, soybean meal may fluctuate downward. The pattern of strong oil and weak meal may continue [4]. 3. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs had significant gains, with most having a weekly return rate of around 11%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 21.8244 billion yuan, with a growth of 10.76%. The trading volume increased by 204.56%. Other commodity funds such as energy - chemical, agricultural product, and non - ferrous metal ETFs had different performance trends [38].

贵金属日报 | 2025-10-16 美国政府继续停摆 贵金属维持强势 市场分析 IMF发布最新一期《财政监测报告》指出，到2029年，全球公共债务规模预计将首次突破GDP的100%；IMF警告 称如果当前财政支出与债务增长趋势得不到遏制，全球金融稳定性可能面临严重威胁。美国政府方面，美国参议 院以51票对44票的投票结果，再次未能推进共和党的临时拨款法案；据悉，需要60票才能推进这项将为政府提供 资金直至11月底的法案。美联储方面，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰最新表示，近期的贸易紧张局势加大了经济增长前 景的不确定性，因此决策者更有必要尽快降息。 2025-10-15，沪金主力合约开于937.50元/克，收于960.34元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动2.27%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于958.00元/克，收于962.08元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.18%。 2025-10-15，沪银主力合约开于11430.00元/千克，收于11966.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动3.75%。当日成交 量为2033514手，持仓量为477807手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 19 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 预计国债期货低位震荡为主 核心观点 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 4 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 今日国债期货均震荡下跌。随着国债期货从前期底部持续反弹，隐含降 息预期已经有所体现，而短期内全面降息的必要性不强，国债期货上方存在 较大阻力。从国内外经济金融环境来看，8 月信贷数据表现偏弱，消费增速 边际减弱，通胀数据表现偏弱，四季度宏观政策稳需求的预期升温。加上海 外美联储 9 月降息，年内预计还有 2 次降息，未来货币宽松 ...

Group 1 - ASMPT's stock price increased by over 5%, reaching 75.95 HKD with a trading volume of 4.95 billion HKD [1] - Zhizheng Co., Ltd. announced that the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved its major asset restructuring plan, which involves acquiring 87.47% of Advanced Packaging Materials International Ltd. (AAMI) for a transaction price of 3.069 billion CNY [1] - The restructuring will divest traditional cable materials business and introduce ASMPT Holding, a wholly-owned subsidiary of ASMPT, as a significant shareholder, marking a precedent for A-share companies to attract international semiconductor leaders [1] Group 2 - The media reports suggest that this move will significantly enhance international cooperation in the semiconductor industry [1] - According to Everbright Securities International, the expectation of monetary easing is making Hong Kong stocks attractive due to their valuation and profit growth potential, particularly in leading companies within technology, finance, and consumer sectors [1] - These sectors are anticipated to experience more active performance driven by favorable policies and capital inflows [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - U.S. economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term, with monetary easing expectations supporting market risk appetite. Domestic economic fundamentals are slightly weaker on a quarterly basis, but it's still not difficult to achieve the annual economic target, and market risk appetite may also be supported. In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high sentiment, and external macro - monetary policy is expected to become looser. With the approach of important events and economic slowdown pressure, short - term market volatility may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Powell's annual meeting speech was unexpectedly dovish at the global central bank summit, strengthening market expectations of interest rate cuts. The current fundamental expectations have weakened slightly, with consumer confidence deteriorating in August and housing construction showing mixed trends [9]. - **Domestic Macro**: In China, on one hand, the probability of a significant downturn in external demand has decreased, while domestic demand, such as consumption and investment, is still at a reasonable level. On the other hand, the capital market remains loose. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies [9]. - **Asset View**: In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high sentiment until after important events, when the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may increase. Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September has strengthened, and the macro - monetary policy is expected to become looser. As important events approach and economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [9]. 3.2 View Highlights - **Finance**: The stock market is trending upwards, and the linkage between stocks and bonds is weakening. Stock index futures and options are expected to rise with fluctuations, while treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Precious Metals**: The expectation of interest rate cuts in September is expanding, which is favorable for the prices of gold and silver, and they are expected to rise with fluctuations [10]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the rate of decline in freight rates for the European container shipping line, which is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Black Building Materials**: With the strengthening of the cost side, black building materials are rebounding from low levels. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. [10]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The weak dollar supports non - ferrous metals, but weakening demand also needs attention. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to fluctuate, and zinc is expected to decline with fluctuations [10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and the weakening of coking coal has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, and some are expected to rise or fall with fluctuations, such as PX, PTA are expected to rise with fluctuations, while crude oil is expected to decline with fluctuations [12]. - **Agriculture**: The agricultural product market is oscillating at high levels, waiting for field inspection results. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, and rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to rise with fluctuations [12].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of base metals on the London Metal Exchange rose across the board on August 22, driven by expectations of monetary easing, stimulus measures in China for metal-intensive industries, improved U.S. manufacturing data, and tightening aluminum inventories [1]. Price Summary - Three-month copper closed at $9,810.50 per ton, up $76.00 from the previous trading day, a rise of 0.78% [1]. - Three-month aluminum closed at $2,621.50 per ton, up $28.50 from the previous trading day, a rise of 1.10% [1]. - Three-month nickel closed at $14,965.00 per ton, up $25.00 from the previous trading day, a rise of 0.17% [1]. - Three-month lead closed at $1,990.00 per ton, up $20.00 from the previous trading day, a rise of 1.02% [1]. - Three-month tin closed at $33,835.00 per ton, up $360.00 from the previous trading day, a rise of 1.08% [1]. - Three-month zinc closed at $2,808.00 per ton, up $41.00 from the previous trading day, a rise of 1.48% [1]. Influencing Factors - The rise in metal prices is attributed to a combination of factors including expectations of monetary easing, stimulus measures in China targeting metal-intensive industries, improvements in U.S. manufacturing data, and tightening aluminum inventories [1]. - The overall weakness of the U.S. dollar and speculative momentum ahead of key policy signals from Jackson Hole further supported metal prices [1].