Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the performance and investment strategy of the Yongying Xincheng Mixed Securities Investment Fund for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting its focus on stable asset appreciation while managing risks effectively [1][2]. Fund Product Overview - Fund Name: Yongying Xincheng Mixed Securities Investment Fund - Fund Manager: Yongying Fund Management Co., Ltd. - Fund Custodian: Huaxia Bank Co., Ltd. - Total Fund Shares at Period End: 173,529,451.42 shares [2]. - Investment Objective: Long-term stable appreciation of net asset value [2]. - Investment Strategies: Includes major asset allocation strategies, stock investment strategies, convertible bond investment strategies, and futures investment strategies [2]. Financial Indicators and Fund Performance - As of the end of the reporting period, the net asset value of Yongying Xincheng Mixed A was 1.0466 RMB, with a net value growth rate of 1.05% against a benchmark return of 1.33% [10]. - The net asset value of Yongying Xincheng Mixed C was 1.0408 RMB, with a net value growth rate of 1.19% against a benchmark return of 1.33% [11]. - The fund's performance over the past three months showed a net value growth rate of 1.05% for Class A, 1.05% for Class C, and 1.19% for Class E [10][11]. Investment Portfolio Report - The fund's total assets included 192,186,502.32 RMB in bonds, representing 93.21% of total assets, with no stocks held at the end of the reporting period [12]. - The portfolio included 126,227,020.55 RMB in policy financial bonds, accounting for 69.70% of the fund's net assets [12]. Management Report - The fund management adhered to a strict fair trading system, ensuring equitable treatment of all investment portfolios without significant violations [9]. - The management team consists of experienced professionals, including Liu Xingyu with 11 years of experience and Yuan Xu with 15 years of experience in the securities industry [6][7].

Market Overview and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 280.1 billion, 72.1 billion, and 161.0 billion respectively, with net financing of 199.9 billion, 21.6 billion, and 155.0 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance of 208.2 billion, with a net financing amount of 84.3 billion [1] - One new convertible bond was issued, expected to raise 0.7 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Interest rates declined last week, influenced by factors such as the lowest funding rates of the year, the return of wealth management funds, reduced government bond issuance, and the stock-bond relationship [2] Liquidity Tracking - The net withdrawal through Open Market Operations (OMO) was 1.4 trillion, but fiscal spending supplemented liquidity, leading to a noticeable easing of funds at the beginning of the month [3] - Anonymous funds dropped to 1.3%, and one-year government stock certificates fell below 1.6% [3] Policy and Fundamentals - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need for lawful governance of enterprises to curb low-price disorderly competition [4] - The manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 49.7, surpassing expectations and previous values [4] Overseas Market - The U.S. Congress passed the "Great Beauty" tax reduction bill, and non-farm employment numbers for June exceeded expectations [5] - The S&P 500 rose by 1.7% over the week, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points [5] Equity Market - The A-share market saw most broad-based indices rise, driven by strong bank sector performance and favorable news in the innovation drug sector [6] - The Wind All A index increased by 1.22%, the CSI 300 rose by 1.54%, and the ChiNext surged by 1.50% [6] - Daily average trading volume decreased to 1.44 trillion, with a weekly average trading volume drop of 130.2 billion [6] - As of July 3, 2025, the total financing balance for All A reached 1,846.38 billion, an increase of 19.847 billion compared to June 26, marking nine consecutive trading days of net growth [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The government bond supply pressure remains high in Q3, and the overall liquidity is expected to remain loose to support government bond issuance and stabilize growth [7] - Economic growth risks are increasing due to weakened export demand, a downturn in the real estate cycle, and reduced support from new policies [7] - Current bond investments have a high probability of success, but the potential for returns depends on the realization of fundamental expectations [7] - Convertible bonds face supply-demand contradictions, with liquidity remaining relatively loose, but the convertible bond index has reached new highs, indicating a need for careful selection of underlying assets [7]

Key Insights - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 33,174 billion USD, indicating a stable economic environment [1] - The convertible bond market showed a 3.3% increase in June, following a 4.7% rise in the stock market, driven by policy stimuli and geopolitical factors [2][3] - The life sciences upstream sector is experiencing a turning point, with a projected revenue growth of 10.75% year-on-year in 2024, driven by stable investment and domestic substitution trends [7][8] - The North Exchange is expected to maintain high trading activity and market attention, with a focus on new industries such as artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace for the second half of 2025 [12][17] Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market's valuation is not overly high, with structural opportunities still available, particularly in sectors showing improved economic conditions such as non-ferrous metals, machinery, agriculture, and computing [4][3] - The market is transitioning from a policy-driven focus to a fundamental pricing approach, with expectations of a 5% economic growth target being met [3][4] - Recommended convertible bonds for July include Guotou Convertible Bond, Ran 23 Convertible Bond, and others, indicating a strategic focus on sectors benefiting from policy support [4] Life Sciences Upstream Sector - The life sciences upstream sector is characterized by high specialization and significant barriers to entry, with major companies expanding and exploring international markets [7][8] - The sector is poised for growth due to the booming demand for innovative drugs, with the Chinese antibody drug market expected to reach 510.8 billion RMB by 2030 [8] - Mergers and acquisitions are becoming more prevalent, with domestic companies looking to replicate the growth paths of global giants, enhancing industry concentration and growth potential [9][10] North Exchange - The North Exchange's trading activity has slightly decreased, with an average daily turnover of approximately 279.83 billion RMB, but it remains higher than other markets [13] - The North Exchange's overall price-to-earnings ratio is around 50.4 times, indicating a slight decline but still higher than other boards, with the electronics sector showing the highest ratios [14] - The North Exchange is optimizing its evaluation system to support the high-quality development of small and medium-sized enterprises, focusing on innovation and market ecology improvement [15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by factors such as weakened upward momentum and overseas disturbances, the equity market declined. With non - banking convertible bonds intensively proposing downward revisions, the large - cap convertible bond market performed better than the small - cap one. Sectors like non - banking, public utilities, banks, and power equipment led the gains, and the underlying positions performed well. The market sentiment remained high, and the convertible bond valuation broke through a key point upwards [1][6]. - From May to June 20, 2025, 11 convertible bonds had their ratings downgraded (13 in the same period of 2024). Although the downgraded par - bond - type convertible bonds generally performed poorly, the parity level and default expectation were better than last year, so the credit risk expectation did not spread significantly. Photovoltaic convertible bonds fluctuated strongly [1][6]. - In the expected stock - bond volatile market, convertible bond assets with strong valuation support are expected to achieve good relative returns. It is recommended to maintain a neutral position, trade frequently, and accumulate small gains. In terms of allocation, it is advisable to focus on high - dividend large - cap par - bond convertible bonds, combined with a balanced and stock - biased direction. Pay attention to recent cases of proposed downward revisions and look for potential targets with strong willingness to promote conversion. Asymmetrical trading, double - low momentum, and clause - based gaming are still recommended [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the equity and convertible bond markets declined slightly, but the convertible bond valuation continued to rise. The 100 - yuan premium rate rose to the key point of 30%. The overall market's 100 - yuan premium rate was 30%, with a slight weekly increase of 0.29%. The latest quantile level was at the 78.60% percentile since 2017. There was a slight differentiation in the valuations of high - and low - rated convertible bonds, with low - rated ones performing relatively strongly [5][7]. - This week, convertible bonds followed the decline of the underlying stocks, and the yield to maturity increased slightly. As of the latest data, the conversion premium rate index, pure - bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 49.07%, 25.45%, and - 2.59% respectively, with changes of + 2.11%, - 0.87%, and + 0.17% compared to last week. Their current quantile levels were at the 78.00, 30.80, and 12.60 percentiles since 2017 [5][11]. 3.2 Clause Tracking 3.2.1 Redemption - This week, Jindan Convertible Bond and Tianyang Convertible Bond issued early redemption announcements. Currently, there are 7 convertible bonds that have issued early redemption or maturity redemption announcements but have not yet delisted. Among the non - delisted convertible bonds, the potential maturity or conversion balance of redeemable and maturing bonds is 6.3 billion yuan. There are currently 37 convertible bonds in the redemption process, and 8 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. Five convertible bonds issued non - redemption announcements this week [5][14][20]. 3.2.2 Downward Revision - One convertible bond announced a downward revision this week but did not revise to the bottom. Bonds such as Lanfan, Qibin, Jiali, Ruida, and Caitong proposed downward revisions. As of the latest, 158 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 2 have triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 48 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 6 have issued downward - revision board preliminary plans but have not yet been submitted to the general meeting of shareholders [5][22][24]. 3.2.3 Put Option - No convertible bond issued a put - option announcement this week. As of the latest, 3 convertible bonds are in the put - option process, and 8 are accumulating put - option trigger days. Among them, 4 are in the downward - revision process, 3 are in the non - downward - revision period, and 1 has proposed a downward revision [5][27]. 3.3 Primary Issuance - Four convertible bonds issued issuance announcements this week. According to the latest announcement, no convertible bonds are scheduled to be listed next week. As of the latest, there are 6 convertible bonds in the approval - registration process, with a to - be - issued scale of 13.4 billion yuan, and 4 in the listing - committee - approved process, with a to - be - issued scale of 2.9 billion yuan [5][30].

证券研究报告 | 债券定期报告 2025 年 06 月 10 日 关注科技板块转债机会 可转债策略周报（0603-0606） 成交久期缩短，收益率回落 一、一周行情回顾：转债市场随权益市场上涨 截至上周五，万得全 A 指数收于 5,156.21 点，一周上涨 1.61%；上证指数收于 3,385.36 点，一周上涨 1.13%；中证转债收于 433.92 点，一周上涨 1.08%；可 转债正股指数收于 1,855.59 点，一周上涨 2.39%。 权益市场方面，上证指数放量上涨。上周主要股指均上涨，其中创业板指领涨。 节奏上，周二到周四各指数持续上涨，周五小幅回调。分行业看，通信、有色 金属、电子、综合和计算机行业表现较好，家用电器、食品饮料、交通运输、 煤炭和钢铁行业跌幅领先。 转债行情方面，上周中证转债指数上涨，成交量转为增长。上周 AA-及以下级 别转债、小盘转债、高价转债表现相对占优。分行业看，轻工制造、有色金属、 计算机、家用电器和电子行业转债表现相对较好，银行、钢铁、商业贸易、建 筑材料和国防军工行业转债涨幅落后。个券层面，金陵转债（轻工制造）、亿 田转债（家用电器）、京源转债（公用事业）、华体转 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company/Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around the application of reinforcement learning models in the convertible bond market. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Reinforcement Learning Model Performance** The model optimizes convertible bond returns by evaluating current buying behavior and future selling timing. Data from outside the sample indicates that since 2020, the model often suggests a buying recommendation of 0, indicating a lack of market buying opportunities, with only a few periods suggesting purchases [1][5][10]. 2. **Market Conditions and Investment Strategy** When market views are clear, specific investment recommendations can be emphasized. In contrast, when the market is ambiguous, it is more beneficial to focus on structural opportunities within specific sectors or industries rather than relying on overall market trends [1][6]. 3. **Risk Management and Positioning** Position management can be dynamically adjusted based on market conditions. The average position over the long term is 46%, which is suitable for combining with secondary bond funds or half-position convertible bonds. In extreme cases, the strategy may completely exit the market to avoid risks, maintaining a neutral viewpoint for flexible adjustments [1][13]. 4. **Model Limitations** The model is not suitable for all types of convertible bonds, particularly large-cap bonds in sectors like electricity and banking, due to differing patterns and large data volumes that exceed standard office equipment capabilities [1][10][12]. 5. **Historical Performance and Risk Avoidance** Historical data shows that the model effectively avoids trend risks, successfully steering clear of significant market downturns in January 2024 and March 2025, while re-entering during upward trends. However, it struggles with identifying specific liquidity issues in small-cap stocks [1][11]. 6. **Current Market Outlook** As of June 2024, the market model indicated an oversold condition, but the recovery took longer than expected. The current market model's viewpoint is neutral at 0.51, suggesting investors should carefully evaluate their strategies rather than making impulsive buy or sell decisions [1][14]. 7. **Investment Recommendations** The types of securities currently suitable for purchase include: - Long-term rising call options with low premiums - Individual bonds with high YTM and stable underlying stock performance - Bonds with moderate valuation elasticity, with the first category being the most recommended [2][15]. 8. **Combining Fundamental and Strategic Analysis** In convertible bond research, a detailed combination of fundamental and strategic analysis is essential. This approach helps investment managers effectively select securities for purchase and develop corresponding strategies [1][16]. 9. **Communication Skills of Convertible Bond Managers** Convertible bond investment managers must possess strong research and communication skills to explain complex products to non-professionals effectively. Clear communication is crucial, especially when addressing common recurring questions [1][18]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The model's ability to avoid local optimization issues by introducing more factors and using random exploration strategies, such as simulated annealing, to enhance its generalization capabilities [1][9]. - The historical underperformance of near-term bonds, which often do not yield favorable results compared to full sample tests, suggesting a preference for selecting bonds with better long-term potential [1][17].

2025 年 04 月 15 日 固定收益点评 研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 范圣哲 S0350522080001 fansz@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 转债再现"黄金坑" 固定收益点评 最近一年走势 相关报告 毅，范圣哲》——2024-10-27 《债券研究月报：高 YTM 转债配置正当时*靳毅， 范圣哲》——2024-08-25 《债券研究月报：转债如何有效择时？*靳毅，范 圣哲》——2024-07-28 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 《固定收益点评：指数新高，转债如何应对？*靳 毅，范圣哲》——2025-04-03 《债券研究月报：2025 转债年度策略*靳毅，范圣 哲》——2024-12-26 《债券研究月报：牛市，转债如何跟涨正股？*靳 另一方面，大行注资落地，打开利率下行空间。我们在《大行注资落地，如何影 响债市》中提到，本轮央行注资特别国债 5000 亿元对债市影响主要有两个方面： ①从供给端来看，发行期限主要为 5Y 和 7Y，在 4-6 月相对平滑发行，供给 ...