Core Viewpoint - The US stock market, particularly semiconductor stocks, experienced a significant sell-off, driven by concerns over high valuations and the increasing risk of a government shutdown [2][3][4]. Group 1: Semiconductor Stocks Performance - Semiconductor stocks collectively dropped, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling over 2%, and major companies like Broadcom, TSMC ADR, and Micron Technology also declining more than 2% [2][3]. - Other large tech stocks also faced declines, with Oracle dropping over 6% and Tesla down over 3% [3]. Group 2: Economic and Political Risks - The risk of a US government shutdown is rising, with a 63% probability of a shutdown by October 1, and a 76% chance of a shutdown by 2025, as political negotiations stall [4]. - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned about high valuations in the stock market, contributing to a cautious sentiment among investors [3][6]. Group 3: Economic Data and Inflation Concerns - Recent macroeconomic data showed a stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth of 3.8%, with personal consumption expenditures contributing significantly to this growth [5]. - The core PCE price index for Q2 was revised up to 2.6%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that may limit the Fed's ability to lower interest rates [5][6]. Group 4: Labor Market Insights - Initial jobless claims decreased to 218,000, the lowest since July, suggesting a healthy labor market despite signs of cooling [7].

9月24日亚洲交易时段，美元表现平淡，美元指数围绕97.35水平窄幅波动。市场对降息的预期持续发酵，美元多头动能明 显不足。美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话强化了鸽派基调，加拿大央行行长警示美元作为传统避险资产的地位正受到侵蚀。 周一美元曾因美联储官员的谨慎言论获得短暂支撑，整体趋势仍显疲软。克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克指出通胀压力短期 内难以消退，强调美联储在平衡通胀控制与就业市场支持方面面临挑战。她表示通胀仍远高于目标水平，任何政策放松都 需高度谨慎。 里士满联储主席托马斯·巴尔金提到关税政策推高消费价格，企业更关注贸易政策的不确定性。新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰警告美 联储可能已过度收紧政策，不及时转向宽松恐对劳动力市场造成损害。 市场下一步将密切关注美联储关键通胀指标——8月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数的发布，预计数据将显示通胀压力有所 缓解。 周二，美联储主席鲍威尔在罗德岛州大普罗维登斯商会发表讲话，将当前形势描述为"具有挑战性的局面"。他强调政策制 定者面临两难抉择：降息过快可能重新点燃通胀，行动过慢可能牺牲就业增长。鲍威尔未明确暗示下一步政策动向，着重 强调了双向风险。 此番讲话后，FXStreet美联储情绪指 ...

来源：中国金融信息网 全球资产管理公司East Spring投资在周二发布的一份报告中表示，美联储在9月份议息会议期间的"鸽派转变"，应该会对未来几个月的利 率市场产生积极影响。 当地时间周二，投资者将关注几位联储官员的讲话。上午9点，美联储负责监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼发表讲话；亚特兰大联储总裁博斯 蒂克10点发表讲话；中午12:35，美联储现任主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。 据外媒周一报道，对于美联储下任主席人选，美国财政部长贝森特近日表示，将在下周完成与11位候选人中剩余10人的面谈，包括现任 美联储理事和地区联储总裁。预计下周开始缩小候选人名单，可能会有两到三份名单，最终向特朗普总统推荐一位候选人。他再次排除 了自己出任美联储主席的可能性，并表示将继续留任财政部长。 此外，投资者亦关注本周将公布的个人消费支出指数（PCE），美联储青睐的该指数应该能让人们对通胀压力和美国整体经济状况有所 了解。 经合组织（OECD）周二上调全球经济增长预测，预计今年全球经济增长3.2%，而6月份的预测为2.9%。对2026年的预期维持在2.9%不 变。该组织对美国经济增长预期也从6月份的1.6%上调至2025年的1.8%。与20 ...

| Mi | > 國授期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月23日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属延续强势。上周美联储风险管理式降息，鲍威尔表态谨慎显示通胀压力仍存,地缘博弈局面难 解。此外需关注美国政府停摆、美联储独立性等问题的演绎。黄金ETF需求快速增长，贵金属中期偏强趋势 未改但短期保持谨慎。今晚关注美国9月SPGI制造业PMI初值和鲍威尔针对经济前景的讲话。 ★美联储博斯蒂克：当前没有太多理由进一步降息，预期今年只降息一次；穆萨莱姆：进一步降息的空间有 限。如果通胀风险增加，将不会支持进一步降息；哈玛克：在解除政策限制时应非常谨慎，我对中性利率的 估计属于较高的那一批；米兰：认为适当的利率处于2%的中间区域。目前不支持对2%的通胀目标进行调 ...

三、独立性表态与政治互动 米兰披露与特朗普会前通话仅涉及祝贺与祝福，未涉及投票意向或"点阵图"立场。他重申将完全独立解读经济数 据，拒绝接受任何特定行动指示，有效缓解政治干预疑虑，维护美联储政策自主性。 四、卡什卡利观点与市场信任 一、独立立场与政策分歧 新任美联储理事米兰在9月19日公开强调政策独立性，明确表示将基于客观经济数据分析制定决策，不受外部干 预。其首次参与货币政策会议即支持降息50个基点，成为唯一持此立场的委员。米兰认为当前利率水平与"中性利 率"存在显著差距，且严格移民政策将抑制住房需求、推动成本下降，从而抵消通胀压力，挑战美联储现行渐进式 降息策略。 二、激进降息路径与逻辑 米兰预测年底前需再下调利率超100个基点，并强调未观测到关税政策引发显著通胀，反而边境管控推动通胀放 缓。他警告若利率长期偏离中性水平，将严重威胁就业目标实现。其政策主张基于深度数据分析，预示未来将持 续推动更激进调整，可能引发市场波动。 明尼亚波利斯联储主席卡什卡利认可当前降息决策，认为就业市场风险要求采取行动支撑劳动力市场，同时关税 引发通胀急升风险较低。他将米兰上任视为常规人事更迭，并援引10年期美债收益率降至约4 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions - Investors are assessing the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision and future rate cut paths, leading to increased market risk appetite and a rise in technology stocks [1] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index showed a significant rebound, indicating an improvement in regional manufacturing activity [1] - All three major U.S. stock indices closed at record highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.27%, S&P 500 up 0.48%, and Nasdaq up 0.94% [1] Group 2: Gold and Commodities - Following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, some investors chose to take profits, coupled with a rebound in the U.S. dollar index, putting downward pressure on gold prices [4] - As of the close, December gold futures were priced at $3678.3 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.06% [4] - International oil prices experienced a slight decline due to geopolitical tensions and weak U.S. crude demand, with light crude futures at $63.57 per barrel and Brent crude at $67.44 per barrel, both down 0.75% [13] Group 3: Company Developments - Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment to purchase Intel common stock at $23.28 per share, with Intel integrating Nvidia's graphics processing technology into its next-generation PC chips [6] - Following the announcement, Intel's stock surged over 22%, marking its largest single-day gain since October 1987, while Nvidia's stock rose approximately 3.5% [6] - Novo Nordisk's stock increased by over 6% due to significant weight loss results from its drug semaglutide [11]

Group 1 - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 231,000, marking the largest weekly decline in nearly four years, down from 264,000 the previous week [1] - Despite the decrease in initial claims indicating no large-scale layoffs, the number of continuing claims remains above 1.9 million, indicating persistent concerns in the labor market [1] - The average duration of unemployment rose to 24.5 weeks in August, the longest since April 2022, suggesting increased difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs [1] Group 2 - The labor market is described as a "strange balance" by the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with both labor supply and demand weakening [1] - Job creation has significantly slowed, with an average monthly increase of only 29,000 jobs over the past three months, and non-farm payrolls in August only growing by 22,000, far below expectations [1] - The Federal Reserve recently announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating that concerns over employment have surpassed inflation risks [1] Group 3 - The current economic situation is complex, with retail sales growth driven primarily by high-income households, while middle and low-income groups face significant inflationary pressures [2] - The widening wealth gap may lead to decreased sensitivity of consumption to policy changes, introducing new uncertainties in economic growth [2] - Structural contradictions in the labor market and inflation pressures present multiple challenges for the U.S. economy, requiring policymakers to find a difficult balance between a weak labor market and ongoing inflationary pressures [2]

Group 1 - Intel's stock surged over 22% following the announcement of a deal with Nvidia, where Nvidia will purchase Intel's common stock at $23.28 per share, totaling approximately $5 billion [1] - Intel plans to integrate Nvidia's graphics processing technology into its next-generation PC chips and provide processor support for data center products based on Nvidia hardware [1] - This partnership is seen as a crucial step for Intel to stabilize its funding chain after struggling in the high-performance chip market and receiving support from the US government and Japan's SoftBank [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4% and indicated a cautious approach towards future rate cuts, which will depend on inflation pressures [1] - European stock indices rose across the board, with the UK FTSE 100 up 0.21%, France's CAC40 up 0.87%, and Germany's DAX up 1.35% [1] - Novo Nordisk's stock increased over 6% following positive trial results for its weight loss drug, semaglutide [1] Group 3 - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with light crude oil futures closing at $63.57 per barrel, down 0.75%, and Brent crude oil futures at $67.44 per barrel, also down 0.75% [1] - Gold prices fell over 1% after the Federal Reserve's rate cut, with December gold futures closing at $3678.3 per ounce, down 1.06% [1]

据@央视财经消息，当地时间18日，英国央行宣布维持4%的基准利率不变，符合市场普遍预期。分析 人士指出，通胀压力持续反弹，是英国央行维持利率不变、谨慎对待降息的主要原因。英国国家统计局 17日数据显示，8月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比与环比涨幅虽均符合市场预期，但仍远高于2%的通胀 目标。鉴于通胀率持续高于目标，且劳动力市场显露疲态，国际机构普遍预测，英国央行不会急于降 息。（总台央视记者 贺嘉婧） 编辑 陈艳婷 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在货币政策例会后的记者会上表示，当前劳动力市场活力不足且略显疲软，美联储需 要平衡"双重使命的两端"。被问及有新的理事成员加入，鲍威尔强调美联储将坚定致力于保持其独立 性。对于25个基点的降息幅度，他认为市场已经提前消化了预期，但此次降息非常重要，是对劳动力市 场的支持。 声明称，最近的指标表明美国上半年经济活动有所放缓。就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升但仍处于低 位。通胀率有所上升，仍处于略高水平。美联储寻求在较长时期内实现充分就业和2%通胀目标。经济 前景不确定性仍然较高。美联储密切关注其双重使命面临的风险，并判断就业形势的下行风险已经上 升。 声明称，为实现目标并鉴于风险平衡的变化，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4% 至4.25%的水平。在考虑进一步调整利率时，美联储将仔细评估后续数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平 衡。美联储将继续减持美国国债、机构债券和机构抵押贷款支持证券。 声明提到，美国总统特朗普提名的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰投票反对此次利率决策，主张将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调50个基点。 当天，美联储公布的经济预测概要显示，与6月时相比，美联储将今年的GDP增速预期中值 ...