宏观经济周报 2025 年第 52 周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数继续稳居扩张区间，且较前期进一步抬升，显示 经济修复的内生动能仍在积累。从分项结构看，消费景气指数小幅回升，近三 周均稳定运行在荣枯线以上，表明在就业与收入预期逐步修复、促消费政策持 续发力的背景下，居民消费需求保持韧性。投资景气指数虽仍略低于荣枯线， 但回拢的趋势较为明确，投资活动的收缩压力边际缓释，表明企业投资意愿趋 稳。出口景气指数小幅回落，更多反映年末订单节奏放缓及企业阶段性结算安 排的季节性影响，外需韧性并未发生实质性改变。生产景气指数则延续上行走 势，持续处于扩张区间，对综合景气形成有力支撑。综合来看，当前景气格局 呈现生产端先行、需求端修复、结构分化延续的特征，短期波动更多体现为节 奏调整而非趋势性转弱，随着稳增长政策持续落地和预期逐步改善，经济运行 有望在扩张区间内夯实基础、稳步前行。 2025 年 11 月，中国经济运行显现出结构优化特征。工业生产稳步回升，规模以 上工业增加值同比增长 4.8%，其中以装备制造业（增长 7.7%）为代表的中高端 产业贡献突出，贡献率高达 59.4%。现代服务业拉动增强，当 ...

周度报告-黄金 美国经济继续走弱，黄金高位震荡 ★投资建议： 短期金价走势震荡，美国圣诞节假期即将到来，市场交易转为清 淡。黄金前高尚未突破，白银炒作过度，注意回调风险。 ★风险提示： 地缘政治风险缓和、美联储鹰派、流动性冲击，将引发黄金回调。 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | 黄金：震荡 | 徐颖 | FRM | 宏观策略首席分析师 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 | 21 | 日 | [Table_Analyser] | 从业资格号： | F3022608 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0013609 | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] | Tel: | 8621-63325888-1610 | | | | | | | Email: | ying.xu | @orientfutures.com | 伦敦金涨 | 0.97%至 | 4341 | 美元/盎司。10 | 年期美债收益率降至 | 4.14%， | | [★T ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a recent high of $4,374.38 per ounce, and the market sentiment is subdued as the holiday season approaches [1][2] - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which is lower than the expected 3.1%, suggesting easing inflation pressures that could support the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy [1][2] - Despite the weak CPI data typically favoring gold, the immediate market reaction saw gold prices initially decline before rebounding, indicating a complex market environment [2] Group 2 - Short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with prices nearing historical highs, but the environment post-2025 may not be as favorable for gold [2] - The current trading range for gold is identified as $4,375 to $4,250, with a smaller range of $4,350 to $4,280, indicating potential for high-level fluctuations [2][3] - Technical analysis suggests that gold remains in a strong bullish trend, with key resistance levels at $4,360-$4,380 and support levels at $4,310-$4,290 for the upcoming week [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent interest in silver as it trades around $64.00, with a slight increase towards $66.00, while the market is awaiting the final inflation expectations for December in the U.S. [1] - The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking a 30-year high and the first rate hike in 11 months since January 2025, which aligns with market expectations [1] - The statement from the Bank of Japan indicates a potential for further rate hikes if the economic outlook remains stable, leading to a sell-off in the bond market and a rise in yields [1] Group 2 - The silver market showed a bearish trend with a high close yesterday, failing to break previous highs, and the daily RSI has declined, indicating a potential short-term weakness [2] - Key support for silver is identified at $60 per ounce, while resistance is at $66 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a short-term bearish outlook [2] - If silver breaks below the $60 support, it may test $55, while a breakout above $66 could lead to higher targets [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices (XAU/USD) have declined for the second consecutive day, retreating from historical highs due to easing inflation pressures indicated by the latest U.S. CPI data, which has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3] Fundamental Analysis - The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows an overall year-on-year increase of 2.7% in November, below the expected 3.1%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.6%, also lower than market consensus [3] - Economists suggest that the data may be distorted due to the U.S. government shutdown, but the signals of cooling inflation have weakened gold's safe-haven demand. The dollar has seen a rebound in buying for three consecutive days, reaching near weekly highs, which typically suppresses gold demand priced in dollars, further intensifying downward pressure on gold prices [3] - Market expectations regarding future monetary policy are characterized by a dual dynamic. Current expectations for easing policies have not been significantly diminished by the inflation data, with traders still betting on a potential adjustment of 63 basis points by 2026, which could provide some support for gold prices. However, the rising expectations for easing have also increased market risk appetite, leading to a shift of funds from the gold market to higher-risk assets, counteracting some of the support for gold and facilitating short-term depreciation [3] - Short-term focus is on upcoming U.S. economic data and statements from relevant officials. Data on existing home sales, revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and comments from key policymakers are likely to impact the dollar's movement, creating short-term trading opportunities for gold [3] Technical Analysis - Last Friday, gold experienced a false breakout in the $4350-$4355 range and fell below the 100-hour simple moving average, which is favorable for bearish positions [4] - However, there are conflicting signals in the oscillators on the hourly and daily charts. A cautious strategy is recommended, waiting for sustained selling below $4300 before considering deeper adjustments. A confirmed break below this level could test the weekly low of $4272-$4271 and support levels of $4260-$4255, with a potential further decline to the $4200 psychological level [6] Resistance Levels - Immediate resistance is found in the $4338-$4340 range. A breakthrough could challenge the historical high near $4380, and surpassing the $4400 mark may extend the previous strong trend [7]

澳新 银行的Khoon Goh报告称，新加坡金融管理局料将于2026年成为该地区首个收紧政策的央行。他预 计此举最早将在7月进行。他表示："虽然2026年的增长前景不确定，但风险平衡略微偏向上行。"他还 预计，新加坡金管局的核心通胀已经见底，并将在2026年上升。Goh指出，新加坡金管局在其他时期也 曾率先在该地区收紧政策——例如2010年全球金融危机后或2021年疫情后复苏期间——这些举措被认为 是为了抢先应对通胀压力。他称："通过及早做出改变，新加坡金管局可以避免落后于形势，以及之后 被迫采取更多行动。" ...

Core Insights - General Mills' latest earnings reveal significant strain on U.S. consumers and the broader economy, with organic net sales down 1%, adjusted operating profit down 20%, and margin compression in North America [1][4]. Consumer Behavior - Lower-income and middle-class consumers are increasingly opting for generic store brands to manage grocery expenses, negatively impacting General Mills, which produces brands like Cheerios and Nature Valley [2][6]. - Despite a trend of eating at home, consumers are not necessarily choosing General Mills' products, indicating a shift in purchasing behavior [3]. Economic Context - The post-pandemic inflation allowed brands to raise prices, but consumers remain cautious due to a sluggish job market, leading to lower volumes and increased promotional needs for General Mills [4][6]. - The economic environment is characterized by a bifurcated consumer base, with high-income shoppers continuing to spend while lower-income shoppers are cutting back [6][7]. Market Performance - General Mills' stock performance reflects broader consumer trends, with a modest 2% increase indicating relief rather than renewed growth confidence [5]. - The operating profit in North America has fallen over 20% year-over-year, aligning with trends reported by major grocery partners like Kroger [6]. Macro Economic Factors - The U.S. economy is facing a volatile backdrop with high effective tariff rates and persistent inflation pressures, contributing to a lack of renewed economic momentum [7]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach following interest rate cuts adds to the uncertainty in the economic landscape [7].

基于上述判断，高盛预计本轮宽松周期将延续至2026年，联邦基金目标利率有望降至3%或更低。该预 测建立在两项核心前提之上：一是通胀压力继续温和回落；二是劳动力市场出现更多疲软迹象，为美联 储解除剩余紧缩政策提供充分空间。 （文章来源：新华财经） "市场应更聚焦于失业率走势，而非总体非农就业增长。"Schiffrin指出。这一转变反映出美联储对劳动 力市场"闲置度"上升的警惕——即便新增就业岗位维持正值，若失业率持续攀升，仍可能触发政策响 应。 新华财经北京12月17日电高盛最新研报指出，美联储在2026年前或采取比市场此前预期更为积极的降息 路径。该机构认为，尽管当前货币政策立场仍以"按兵不动、评估数据"为主，但决策层对劳动力市场可 持续性的担忧正在上升，可能降低进一步宽松的门槛。 高盛全球银行与市场部首席策略官兼金融风险主管Josh Schiffrin表示，美联储主席鲍威尔在最近一次新 闻发布会上释放出明确信号：就业市场的结构性变化正引起政策制定者的高度关注。Schiffrin强调，未 来数月的就业数据将成为判断是否重启降息的关键依据，其中失业率指标的重要性已超越非农就业总人 数。 ...

12月17日，当地时间周二，美国劳工统计局（BLS）一次性公布了10月和11月的非农就业数据，显示美 国11月就业增长依然疲弱，在10月表现不佳之后，劳动力市场仍在持续降温。数据显示，美国11月非农 就业人口增加6.4万人，好于市场预期的5万人；但失业率却意外升至4.6%，高于9月的4.4%，也略高于 预期的4.5%，创下2021年9月以来的新高。但与此同时，10月就业人数大幅减少10.5万人，降幅明显超 过此前市场预期的-2.5万人，全部源于政府部门就业的大幅下滑。由于政府停摆期间暂停了家庭调查， BLS不会公布10月失业率等数据。美国劳工统计局表示，无法量化政府关门对10-11月就业人数调查的 影响。这也意味着，最新公布的数据在完整性和可比性上仍存在一定不确定性。 另外，最新公布的数据显示，欧元区12月商业活动增长放缓，综合PMI从11月的52.8降至51.9，创三个 月新低。数据显示，欧元区制造业普遍疲软，而服务业增长势头也在减弱。通胀压力上升，投入成本涨 幅达到九个月高点。分析指出，这些数据将有助于为欧洲央行提供信息，该央行将于周四做出今年最后 一次的利率决策。投资者和分析师认为，在可预见的未来，当前 ...

在政策与人事不确定性尚未消化前，单边押注性价比有限，更适合通过期限结构或跨资产对冲应对波 动。 年内降息完成后，市场仍缺乏清晰的"下一步指引"。围绕主席人选博弈、官员内部分歧及收益率曲线波 动，共同形成新的不确定性来源。在这种环境下，政策路径更像是一系列需动态校准的概率判断。对交 易者而言，关注结构性信号变化，比单纯押注结果更为关键。 UNFX12月17日讯 年内第三次降息落地后，美联储未来政策路径的不确定性并未减弱，反而因人事变 动及内部立场分歧进一步升温。周二晚间，《华尔街日报》披露，美国总统特朗普计划于周三面试现任 美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，将其列为潜在下一任主席候选人之一。消息公布后，市场对政策预期面 临再次定价压力。此次人事遴选叠加近期宏观数据扰动和收益率曲线波动，使交易者需要同时消化"政 策已落地"与"政策主导权可能更迭"两条并行主线。 报道显示，沃勒与国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什同列面试名单。沃勒在学 界口碑稳健，10月调查显示经济学家普遍认为他是合适的主席人选，其关于降息的论证逻辑自洽，并具 备协调内部分歧的能力。然而，政治现实对其不完全有利：沃勒与特朗普缺乏深厚私 ...