当地时间8月19日，美国总统特朗普再度"炮轰"美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。他在社交媒体"TruthSocial"发文，称鲍威尔"正在严重伤害房地产行业"，过高的 利率政策让民众无法获得抵押贷款。他直言："通胀没有出现，利率应该大幅下降。'太迟先生'简直是一场灾难！" 此番言论无疑将市场的注意力推向了本周即将在怀俄明州举行的"杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会"。鲍威尔将在会上发表讲话，这很可能是鲍威尔最后一次以美联 储主席身份亮相该会议。 尽管就业市场转弱，但美国7月生产者物价指数（PPI）环比上涨0.9%，创下自2022年6月以来最大单月涨幅。 这意味着通胀压力仍然是存在的，所以部分经济学家对美联储能否在短期内迅速转向保持犹豫态度。 作为由堪萨斯城联储主办的年度盛会，杰克逊霍尔会议素以央行高官政策表态"风向标"著称。今年会议将于周四晚间开幕，鲍威尔的讲话定于周五上午10点 （北京时间晚10点）。 鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束。但特朗普此前已放话，将提前任命新一任美联储主席。 面对着持续的政治压力，鲍威尔仍然维持其一贯立场。美联储在7月议息会议上连续第五次选择维持基准利率在4.25%-4.50%的区间不变，并暗示9月 ...

美国商务部工业与安全局19日发布公告，宣布将407个钢铁和铝衍生产品类别纳入关税清单，适用税率 为50%。有企业担心，美方此举将推升成本，对企业利润空间造成沉重打击。 美国商务部负责工业和安全事务的副部长凯斯勒称，美方此举扩大了钢铝关税覆盖范围。根据公告，新 增清单涵盖范围广泛，包括风力涡轮机及零部件、移动式起重机、推土机和其他重型设备、轨道车辆、 压缩机和泵等。 美国密歇根州立大学教授贾森·米勒说，据他测算，基于2024年总体进口货值，美国钢铝关税目前至少 影响3200亿美元的商品进口。扩大钢铝关税清单范围将给攀升的物价进一步增加通胀压力。 美国自6月4日起将进口自除英国外所有贸易伙伴的钢铝产品关税从25%上调至50%，招致多国反对和批 评。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 总部位于瑞士的德迅国际运输公司负责海关事务的副总裁布赖恩·鲍德温表示50%的关税将带来沉重打 击，认为美方此举不只是关税问题，更意味着美国在钢铝衍生产品监管层面的战略性转变。 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index fluctuated around the 98 mark, ultimately closing up 0.12% at 98.24 [1] - Spot gold initially rose to a high of 3345.25 but later fell, closing down 0.51% at 3315.60 USD/oz [1] - Spot silver decreased by 1.68%, ending at 37.37 USD/oz [1] Key News Summary - The US Department of Commerce announced the inclusion of 407 categories of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list, with a tax rate of 50%, raising concerns among businesses about increased costs and profit margins [2] - The expanded tariff list includes a wide range of products such as wind turbine components, cranes, bulldozers, rail vehicles, compressors, and pumps [2] - A professor from Michigan State University estimated that the current steel and aluminum tariffs affect at least 320 billion USD worth of imports based on 2024 overall import values, indicating further inflationary pressure due to rising prices [2] Trading Insights - Gold and silver continue to trade within a narrow range as traders await the next price catalyst, with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's upcoming speech being a potential trigger [4] - Gold prices have remained around 3350 USD over the past three months, supported by stable investment demand, while silver lacks momentum due to a combination of industrial demand and structural deficits [4] - Short-term performance of precious metals is expected to be volatile due to multiple factors including tariff trade policies, adjustments in Fed rate cut expectations, and geopolitical conflicts [4]

美国商务部工业与安全局19日发布公告，宣布将407个钢铁和铝衍生产品类别纳入关税清单，适用税率 为50%。不少企业担心，美方此举将推升成本，对企业利润空间造成沉重打击。 美国商务部负责工业和安全事务的副部长杰弗里·凯斯勒称，美方此举扩大了钢铝关税覆盖范围。根据 公告，新增清单涵盖范围广泛，包括风力涡轮机及零部件、移动式起重机、推土机和其他重型设备、轨 道车辆、压缩机和泵等。 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 总部位于瑞士的德迅国际运输公司负责海关事务的副总裁布赖恩·鲍德温表示50%的关税将带来沉重打 击，认为美方此举不只是关税问题，更意味着美国在钢铝衍生产品监管层面的战略性转变。 美国密歇根州立大学教授贾森·米勒说，据他测算，基于2024年总体进口货值，美国钢铝关税目前至少 影响3200亿美元的商品进口。扩大钢铝关税清单范围将给攀升的物价进一步增加通胀压力。 美国自6月4日起将进口自除英国外所有贸易伙伴的钢铝产品关税从25%上调至50%，招致多国反对和批 评。 ...

新华财经北京8月20日电（马萌伟）继18日脱离逾两周低位后，19日，美元指数再次脱离逾两周低位， 且盘中一度转跌。境内外人民币持稳，延续近期窄幅波动，隐含波动率降至2024年3月以来的最低水 平。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，后续美元指数的变化以及国内政策或成为人民币汇率的重要影响因 素。若美联储如期降息，美元指数或因此走弱，对于我国证券账户的资本流入有望形成一定利好。央行 稳汇率政策张弛有度，将为人民币汇率的韧性提供有力支撑。 在岸人民币兑美元基本持平于7.1830，连续六个交易日波幅不到0.1%；离岸人民币兑美元持平于 7.1880，连续第五个交易日波幅不到0.1%；离岸人民币兑美元1个月隐含波动率跌至2.77%，创2024年3 月以来的最低水平。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛表示，人民币兑美元存在进一步升值突破7元的可能性。推动人民币走 升的情形包括美国经济疲软、美联储减息以及市场对美元信心普遍下降（美元信誉受损）。另外，还有 一种可能推升人民币的情形，就是中美能够像美国总统特朗普第一个任期那样达成一个第二阶段经贸协 议，这可能提升市场信心。 具体数据显示，美元指数围绕98关口来回震荡，最终收涨0.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has expanded its steel and aluminum tariffs to include 407 categories of derived products, imposing a 50% tax rate, which is expected to significantly impact costs and profit margins for various industries [1][1][1] Group 1: Tariff Expansion Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced the inclusion of 407 categories of steel and aluminum derived products in the tariff list, with a tax rate set at 50% [1] - The expanded list covers a wide range of products, including wind turbines and components, mobile cranes, bulldozers, heavy equipment, rail vehicles, compressors, and pumps [1][1] Group 2: Economic Impact - According to estimates, the expanded steel and aluminum tariffs will affect imports worth at least $320 billion, based on the projected total import value for 2024 [1] - The increase in tariffs is expected to further elevate inflationary pressures by contributing to rising prices [1] Group 3: Industry Reactions - Companies are concerned that the 50% tariff will lead to increased costs and significantly impact profit margins [1] - Industry experts view this move not just as a tariff issue but as a strategic shift in the U.S. regulatory approach towards steel and aluminum derived products [1][1]

包括Southwire Co. LLC和Cerro Wire LLC在内的美国主要电线生产商正在上调铜线产品价格。此前，美 国总统特朗普决定免除基本铜进口关税，预计这将使美国铜加工企业受益。分析师表示，关税决定可能 会对美国消费者造成通胀压力。CRU集团的Aisling Hubert指出，本土生产商将拥有更大的定价权，而 伍德麦肯兹的Peter Schmitz则表示，"最终有人会为此买单，那就是美国消费者"。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Group 1 - Global market sentiment is cautious as investors await signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole annual meeting from August 21 to 23 [1][2] - Economists suggest Powell may adopt a more cautious tone this year compared to last year, where he explicitly mentioned the reasons for potential rate cuts [1][2] - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month is over 80%, according to the interest rate futures market [2] Group 2 - Investors are also looking forward to the release of the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes for additional policy clues [3] - Current inflation levels in the U.S. remain above the established target, with some opinions attributing this to one-time factors rather than a long-term trend [3] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to have differing views on the possibility of a rate cut in September, with a consensus leaning towards a 25 basis point cut rather than a 50 basis point cut [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term trading focuses on interest - rate cut expectations. US inflation data shows potential upward pressure, and the actual rate - cut magnitude is uncertain. The extension of the China - US tariff truce releases short - term tariff risks. In the fundamental aspect, it is approaching the traditional peak season, with strong spot premiums, declining domestic social inventories, and improved spot trading after price drops. In the long - term, copper pricing will return to macro trading. The weak US economy caps the upside of copper prices, but the market is not in a recession narrative, so the downside is also limited. Short - term trading is expected to be range - bound between 78,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price first rose and then fell. Supply - side news initially boosted the price, but later, the price was pressured by factors such as the increase in registered warehouse receipts. In the fundamental aspect, the supply of bauxite is expected to tighten in the short - term, but the alumina market will remain in a slight surplus in the medium - term due to profit - driven capacity recovery and new capacity additions. The price of the main alumina contract is expected to fluctuate between 3,000 - 3,300. For electrolytic aluminum, the market is affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances, demand weakness, and macro uncertainties. The price of the main contract is expected to be between 20,000 - 21,000 [5]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand. The cost is supported by the shortage of scrap aluminum, but the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season and weak orders in the automotive industry. The market is expected to remain range - bound between 19,600 - 20,400, and attention should be paid to changes in scrap aluminum supply and imports [7]. Zinc - Upstream zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production and resumption. The zinc ore TC has risen, but the production growth rates of the global and domestic zinc mines in some periods were lower than expected. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, with low spot premiums and low operating rates in primary processing industries. The low global inventory provides price support. The zinc price is expected to be range - bound between 22,000 - 23,000 [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the actual output from Myanmar is expected to resume in the fourth quarter. The demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation peak and the entry of the electronics industry into the off - season. The tin price has fallen due to factors such as the strong US dollar. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, the price is expected to remain high and volatile [14]. Nickel - Last week, the nickel price fluctuated widely. The macro - environment shows easing inflation pressure and a weak employment market, increasing the market's expectation of more aggressive easing. The domestic nickel price is mainly oscillating, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. The nickel price is expected to be range - bound between 118,000 - 126,000, and attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - Last week, the stainless - steel price oscillated. The market is in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with cautious downstream procurement. The export pressure has eased, and the macro - expectation has strengthened slightly. The price of raw materials is stable. The stainless - steel price is expected to be range - bound between 12,800 - 13,500, and attention should be paid to policy trends and nickel - iron dynamics [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures price increased significantly. The fundamental situation is in a tight balance. The supply is expected to contract in the short - term, while the demand is showing a positive trend as it enters the peak season. The market is in a state of overall de - stocking. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in a strong range, around 85,000 - 90,000. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and consider light - position long - entry on dips [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.32% to 79,180 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 100.37 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.06 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the electrolytic copper production increased by 3.47% to 117.43 million tons, and the import volume increased by 18.74% to 30.05 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% to 55.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 20,710 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 100.3 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.02 [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the alumina production increased by 5.40% to 765.02 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.11% to 372.14 million tons. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 4.26% to 58.80 million tons [5]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63% to 62.50 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.31% to 26.60 million tons. The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 2.03% to 3.52 million tons [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.27% to 22,450 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The import loss increased by 212.88 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.05 [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the refined zinc production increased by 3.03% to 60.28 million tons. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 14.13% to 12.92 million tons [11]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1.30% to 266,000 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 98 dollars/ton to 63 dollars/ton [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 310 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 9.56% to 1,655 tons [14]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.50% to 121,500 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 231 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.01 [16]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.81% to 118,531 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The SHFE inventory increased by 1.72% to 26,194 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2.75% to 40,572 tons [16]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.76% to 13,100 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 24.64% to 260 yuan/ton [17]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.11% to 926 yuan/nickel point [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.00% to 49.65 million tons [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.85% to 82,700 yuan/ton, and the SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide price increased by 1.37% to 74,040 yuan/ton. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread increased by 2.22% to 2,300 yuan/ton [20]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 180 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the lithium carbonate production increased by 4.41% to 81,530 tons, and the demand increased by 2.62% to 96,275 tons. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97,846 tons [20].

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares and the ChiNext index led global gains with an increase of 8.6%[27] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 3.0% and the Nikkei 225 increased by 3.7%[27] - Emerging markets, particularly A-shares, outperformed developed markets, with the overall A-share market up by 3.0% last week[31] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index fell by 0.4%, while the euro, pound, and yen appreciated by 0.5%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively[5] - Since the beginning of the year, the US dollar index has decreased by 9.8%, with the euro, pound, and yen rising by 13%, 8.3%, and 6.4% respectively[5] - Commodity prices saw a general increase, with the South China and CRB commodity indices both rising by 0.5%[71] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The yield curve for Chinese bonds exhibited a "bear steepening" pattern, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.7 basis points to 1.75%[45] - The 10-year to 2-year yield spread for US bonds also expanded, indicating a "bear steepening" trend, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6 basis points to 4.33%[50] Group 4: Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium for the CSI 300 relative to 10-year government bonds decreased to 5.7%, down by 0.14% from the previous value[19] - The risk premium for the S&P 500 relative to 10-year US Treasuries fell to -0.8%, a decrease of 0.10%[19]