美林国际策略师米哈利斯·鲁萨基斯认为："地缘风险重新成为交易主线。不过，相较传统避险模式，汇率与利率市场反应更为复杂。" 日元上行空间受限 16日，美元对日元在亚洲交易时段自高点回落，但整体仍维持在关键技术支撑上方。分析人士普遍认为，中东局势紧张推升国际油价，在一定程度上提振美 元表现。与此相对，日本方面政策路径仍存不确定性，市场普遍预期日本央行本周将延续宽松基调，成为日元当前面临的主要压力来源。 截至记者发稿时，美元对日元运行在小时图一目均衡云区143.37至144.13上方，亚洲时段震荡于143.90至144.74区间。汇价多数时间维持在100小时与200小时 均线上方，短线技术结构仍偏强。日线图中，云区上沿144.83至145.59构成阶段性压制。 "地缘风险重新成为交易主线。不过，相较传统避险模式，汇率与利率市场反应更为复杂。"美林国际策略师米哈利斯·鲁萨基斯对第一财经记者表示，"尽管 美元全线走强、油价大涨，但日元与瑞郎却双双走弱，反映出市场对地缘扰动的定价机制已出现变化。" 当前市场关注的焦点是本周即将召开的日本央行政策会议。市场主流预期认为，短期利率目标将维持在0.5%不变，且该水平可能持续至2 ...

Group 1 - International precious metals futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.48% to $3452.60 per ounce, and a weekly increase of 3.17% [1] - COMEX silver futures increased by 0.21% to $36.37 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 0.64% [1] - Analysts noted that escalating geopolitical tensions have heightened market risk aversion, supporting the safe-haven status of precious metals [1] Group 2 - Huishang Futures indicated that the safe-haven attribute of gold will limit its downside potential, predicting continued high-level fluctuations in gold prices [1] - The resilience of the U.S. economy may provide some support for silver's industrial demand, with potential for further correction in the gold-silver ratio [1] - Long-term factors such as stagflation risks, rising dollar credit risks, and central bank gold purchases are expected to provide core support for gold [1] Group 3 - New Century Futures reported that as of June 11, SPDR Gold ETF saw an outflow of 1.45 tons, indicating a bearish sentiment among institutional investors [4] - As of June 3, CFTC's non-commercial net long positions in gold increased by 13,721 contracts to 187,905 contracts, reflecting a bullish sentiment among speculators [4] Group 4 - Industrial Futures stated that the long-term outlook remains favorable for gold prices, maintaining a judgment of upward movement in the gold price's mid-term center [6] - The World Gold Council reported that in May, global physical gold ETFs experienced an outflow of approximately $1.8 billion, ending a five-month streak of net inflows [6] - The total assets under management for global gold ETFs fell to $374 billion by the end of May due to price volatility [6]

智通财经APP获悉，随着以色列对伊朗的袭击升级，美元作为传统危机避险货币的角色正迎来严峻考 验。在多方压力之下，美元全球货币主导地位出现的裂痕已成为今年金融市场的核心议题。 与历史规律相悖的是，当以色列空袭伊朗目标的新闻爆出时，美元最初应声下跌，随后才逆转走势兑多 数主要货币走强。在WTI原油期货暴涨10%的当日，美国作为全球最大产油国的地位可能助推了美元反 弹。 但就在周四，彭博美元指数触及三年低点，市场担忧关税上调及美国经济前景恶化。席卷美股美债等各 类资产的"卖出美国"交易风潮持续施压，也使美元避险属性备受质疑。 澳洲国民银行驻悉尼策略师Rodrigo Catril表示："首要关注点是美国政府的贸易政策、财政挥霍及对法 治的挑战是否正在弱化美元避险属性。其次，以色列袭击事件显示'美国似乎正在退出地缘政治领导角 色，这为其他国家推行自身议程打开了大门'。" 美国国务卿鲁比奥称美方"未参与"以色列袭击，并警告伊朗不得以美国利益或人员为报复目标。 周五亚洲交易时段，美元指数上涨约0.3%，日元震荡波动，瑞士法郎攀升约0.1%。4月创下历史新高的 黄金涨幅一度达1.7%，美债价格小幅走高。 Bloomberg ...

CPI数据前瞻直播中 黄金避险属性再受考验，今晚CPI如何布局？市场情绪是否已改变？实战交易员Rinly正在直播分析中， 点击马上观看！ 相关链接 ...

张尧浠：市场聚焦美CPI数据、金价震荡调整待上行走强 上交易日周二(6月10日)：国际黄金震荡十字收跌，仍运行在中轨及扩展线支撑上方，但也仍受到短期均线阻力，在打破阻力与支撑之前，短期走势还是 以震荡走盘对待。如重回10日均线上方，则跟进看涨上行，如跌至中轨线下方，则待触及扩展线支撑或60日均线支撑后，再度看涨反弹。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3325.40美元/盎司，先行走低，于10点半时段录得日内低点3301.75美元，之后筑底震荡并转回升，持续反弹，延续到美盘初 录得日内高点3348.78美元，随后又遇阻回落，并持稳于3320美元一线上方盘整，最终收于3322.33美元，日振幅47.03美元，收跌3.07美元，跌幅0.092%。 影响上，日内市场观望情绪浓厚。聚焦于中美贸易谈判进入第二天，并静待更多明确信号以确定下一阶段方向。同时，美国上周强劲的非农数据推动美元 反弹，对金价构成压制。然而，市场对于美联储未来降息预期仍存，叠加地缘局势升温，对黄金形成一定支撑。令其走势震荡。 展望今日周三(6月11日)：国际黄金开盘先行窄幅震荡偏弱运行，受到短期均线的压力，不过，近期走势运行在扩展线的强劲横向支撑上方，也 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a high - level oscillation in the medium - term and a step - up movement in the long - term. The price trend of gold serves as an anchor for the price of silver. [1][5] - For both gold and silver, the recommended strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is advised to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, the precious metals market showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold Futures closed down 0.03%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver Futures closed up 0.62%. [1] - **Core Logic**: In the short term, there are still risks of repeated Trump - era trade wars, economic recession, and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: A phone call between Chinese and US leaders is expected to focus on rare earths and export controls in Sino - US trade talks. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The New York Fed's consumer expectations survey shows that in May, US public anxiety about the future inflation path eased. The one - year inflation expectation of respondents was 3.2% (down from 3.6% in April). The US added 139,000 non - farm payrolls in May, higher than the market expectation of 130,000. Employment growth continued to slow under the influence of trade policy uncertainties, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and gold ETFs are presented, showing different changes compared to the previous day and the previous week. For example, the Comex gold main contract closed at $3346.70 per ounce, up $15.70 (0.47%) from the previous day and down $59.70 (-1.75%) from the previous week. [2] Silver - **Influencing Factors**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has increased slightly. [5] - **Data Summary**: Similar to gold, data on international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and silver ETFs are provided. For instance, the Comex silver main contract closed at $36.91 per ounce, up $0.77 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $1.98 (5.65%) from the previous week. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) are all 4.50%, 4.50%, and 4.40% respectively, with a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6723.632 billion, down $514 million (-0.00%) from the previous day. [8] - **Other Economic Indicators**: Include M2 growth rate, ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation indicators (CPI, PCE), economic growth indicators (GDP), unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and central bank gold reserves. For example, the CPI (year - on - year) is 2.30%, down 0.10 percentage points; the GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, down 0.90 percentage points. [9][10][12] - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at various Fed meetings from June 2025 to December 2026 is presented. For example, at the June 18, 2025 meeting, the probability of the federal funds rate being in the 425 - 450 range is 99.9%. [13]

有色金属与新材料 2025 年 6 月 8 日 有色金属与新材料周报 宏观预期边际转好，工业金属价格中枢有望抬升 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 24-06 24-09 24-12 25-03 25-06 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 | 陈潇榕 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060523110001 | | | chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn | 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 核心观点： 贵金属-黄金：美国就业市场短期延续韧性特征，看好黄金中长期走 势。 截至 6.6，COMEX 金主力合约环比上涨 0.54%至 3331 美元/盎 司。SPDR 黄金 ETF环比增加 0.4%为934.2 吨。5 月美国制造业 PMI 达 48.5，环比降低 0.2 个百分点；非制造业 PMI49.9，环比走低 1.7 个百分点。就业数据方面，美国 5 月失业率达 4.2%，环比持平，新 增非农就业 13.9万人。总体来看 ...

2025 年 6 月 6 日星期五 投 避险缓和美就业下行 金银比高位开启回调？ www.shanjinqh.com 作者：林振龙 资 投资 咨询资 格证号： Z0018476 F03107583 电话：021–2062 7529 linzhenlong@sd-gold.com 报告导读 一、避险属性 咨 1、特朗普贸易战避险阶段兑现。中美元首通话，同意尽快举行新一轮会 谈并互发访问邀请。中东、俄乌等地缘冲突升级风险仍存； 询 部 2、美国遭穆迪调降评级，彻底告别顶级 AAA 信评俱乐部。美国财政部标 售的 160 亿美元 20 年期债券需求疲软，因投资者担心美国债务负担日益加重。 美国债务规模突破 36 万亿美元，财政恶化加剧市场对美元信用体系质疑。 投资 咨询资 格证号： 审核：曹有明 Z0013162 二、货币属性 复核：刘书语 黄 金 白 1、美国经济滞涨风险增加，美国就业数据整体走弱，市场重燃美联储降 息提前预期。继裁员人数与小非农之后，最新美国上周初请失业金人数升至七 个月最高，4 月进口降幅创纪录。 期货 从业 资格证 号： 2、欧洲央行一如预期降息 25 个基点，但暗示在通胀率终于回到央行 2 ...

黄金走势分析：通常情况下，在大幅上涨后出现犹豫不决的信号，市场预期可能会出现一定程度的回调。考虑到黄金的涨幅之大，这种可能性确实存在。但 我们需要回顾月线图上的其他十字星形态，并非每一次犹豫不决都意味着趋势反转。然而，这确实标志着市场可能发生变化，这也是我们进入6月交易时需 要关注的要点。首先就是关注非农数据，也是突破方向的重要因素。 现在非农数据公布在即，行情走势偏缓，本周的部分数据显示美国经济疲软，特别是周三小非农数据公布值3.7低于预期与前值，大幅利好金价；昨晚初请 数据也大于预期与前值，更加确认老美经济存在放缓或衰退的风险；这点在小非农数据公布后特朗普又攻击鲍威尔要求尽早降息也能反映出来。消息面上， 特朗普关税政策的反复叠加地缘冲突两者不断提振金价的避险属性，这几点都是利好金价的，所以还是去看好金价，做多金价。 技术面上来看，金价自周一的避险助涨突破前期的下行趋势线后，本周整体都处于此趋势线上方交投，故而金价中期上还是偏于一个震荡看涨的走势。在昨 晚之前我们可以说是在破位趋势线之后多头有些乏力（毕竟上破都是消息面的助攻），但是昨晚破位3392后需要去调整思路，今日主要看非农公布情况后再 去重新构思本月 ...

ar no h the it Las & & R & R = 2 = 2 = 7 = 1 = 7 = 129 0 0 454 21 12:0 【明 第 F K E R BE FE F F F F IT ANT TOE ARE MILIALITATE ! AMEROBINE OD n A / / / 120 MICHARDAN THE LEHIH I a minimal Particle of the states of the 11 6800 013 1100 air r II one of chauser II 09 @ Than EMIB e 49 A 3 IID 845500 08: 8 9 记者 老盈盈 6月5日16时26分，一块由新疆维吾尔自治区额敏县人民法院进行拍卖的200克金条在阿里司法拍卖平台上结束了一天的竞拍，比预定时间超时了26分钟。出 价竞买这块金条的次数多达297次，最后成交价为155563.2元，每克金条的价格为777.81元。 这块金条的起拍价为119723.2元，每克起拍价为598.6元，远低于市场价。6月4日，上海黄金交易所AU9999黄金价格收盘价为779.46元/克，最高报 ...