↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 思哲与创富 来源：雪球 以下文章来源于思哲与创富 ，作者思哲 思哲与创富 . 全天候-永久投资策略投顾主理人，全球资产配置，为你做好家庭投资框架，穿越牛熊 但现在呢 ？ 金银比已经回落到了 68 ， 人话解释就是 ： 肉已经吃得差不多了 ， 剩下的只有骨头 。 作为左侧投资者 ， 金银比在80以上时 ， 用白银替换黄金是 " 高赔率 " 博弈 ； 但在68这个位置 ， 且黄金本身已经大涨的背景下 ， 再去追白银 ， 那是 " 低赔率+高波动 " 的无脑冲锋 。 二 、 被证伪的 " 工业叙事 " 这时或许很多人会搬出 " 工业属性 " 来辩护 ： " 新能源 、 AI都需要白银啊 ， 是工业需求驱动的牛市 ！ " 之前临时提了嘴，说白银这几天疯涨，白银期权隐含波动率飙到了40的高位。 这种单边上行且伴随极高波动率的行情 ， 再加上白银LOF狂飙 ， 吸引了大量散户进场申购套利 ， 说实话 ， 让我感觉 商品散户化的味道有点浓 了 。 如果你手里持有多头 ， 现在可能不是庆祝的时候 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high-level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.21%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 3.07%, Platinum's main contract closed down 0.48%, and Palladium's main contract closed down 0.68% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war related hedging has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, leading to a slowdown in interest - rate cut expectations [1] - The Fed cut the interest rate with internal differences, hinting at a pause in action and possibly only one rate cut next year. The current market expects the probability of no rate cut in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next possible rate cut may be in April [1] - Precious metals are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, highly volatile in the medium - term, and to rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5] Summary by Directory 1. Gold - **Price Performance**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4258.30 per ounce, up 0.51% from the previous day and 0.55% from last week. London gold was at $4200.15 per ounce, up 0.05% from the previous day and down 0.24% from last week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 957.90 yuan per gram, up 0.16% from the previous day and 0.47% from last week [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold's position was 459,997 lots (100 ounces per lot), Shanghai Gold's main contract position decreased by 0.25% from the previous day and 2.76% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8598 tons with no change, Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from last week [2] - **Investment Strategy**: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] 2. Silver - **Price Performance**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $62.20 per ounce, up 1.70% from the previous day and 5.55% from last week. London silver was at $61.04 per ounce, up 4.10% from the previous day and 4.57% from last week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 14,488 yuan per kilogram, up 0.80% from the previous day and 7.93% from last week [6] - **Position and Inventory**: LBMA silver inventory increased by 10.60% from last week, Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.07% from last week, and Shanghai Silver's inventory increased by 19.34% from last week [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6] 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, all decreased by 0.25% compared to before. The Fed's total assets are $6586.185 billion, down $164.12 billion from before [8] - **Inflation Data**: The year - on - year CPI is 3.00%, the month - on - month CPI is 0.30%, the year - on - year core CPI is 3.00%, and the month - on - month core CPI is 0.30% [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: The annualized year - on - year GDP is 2.00%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP is 3.80% [10] - **Employment Data**: The unemployment rate is 4.40%, and the monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 11.90 million [10] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 123.60, down 22.89% from before; the VIX index is 15.77, down 6.85% from the previous day and 1.93% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 301.38, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.84% from last week [11] 4. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the 350 - 375 range in January 2026 is 77.9%. The probability distribution of interest - rate ranges changes over different meeting dates from 2026 to 2027 [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high - level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 5.44%, platinum's main contract closed up 1.08%, and palladium's main contract closed up 1.08% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war - related避险 has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US job market is weakening, inflation is moderate, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased. The US economic activity has changed little, but the government shutdown has suppressed demand in many places. The market is waiting for more economic data. Currently, the market expects an 80%+ probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December [1] - It is expected that in the short - term, gold will be weak and silver strong, platinum will be strong and palladium weak. In the medium - term, they will fluctuate at high levels, and in the long - term, they will rise step - by - step [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market Performance - Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Comex gold's main contract closed at $4236.60 per ounce, up 0.40% from the previous day, and London gold closed at $4198.00 per ounce, up 0.23% from the previous day [1][2] - The closing price of Shanghai Gold's main contract (SHFE) was 956.40 yuan per gram, up 0.51% from the previous day [2] Core Logic - Short - term: Trade - war - related避险 has subsided, geopolitical risks remain, US employment is weakening, inflation is moderate, and interest - rate - cut expectations remain [1] - 避险 attribute: There are discussions about ending the Ukraine war, and there are still geopolitical risks in the Middle East [1] - Monetary attribute: The possibility of Fed rate cuts has increased, the US economic activity has changed little, and the market is waiting for more economic data [1] - Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index fluctuates weakly, the RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen - energy industry, and palladium faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market [1] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3] Silver Market Performance - Comex silver's main contract closed at $61.16 per ounce, up 4.55% from the previous day, and London silver closed at $58.63 per ounce, up 0.44% from the previous day [8] - The closing price of Shanghai Silver's main contract (SHFE) was 14373.00 yuan per kilogram, up 5.63% from the previous day [8] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [8] Fundamental Key Data Monetary Attribute - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; discount rate: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; reserve balance rate (IORB): 3.90%, down 0.25% from the previous value [10] - The Fed's total assets were $65861.85 billion, down 0.00% from the previous value [10] - M2 (year - on - year): 4.65%, up 0.22% from the previous value; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 2.51, up 0.80% from the previous day, up 2.03% from the previous week [10] - US Treasury spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data are also provided [12] 避险 Attribute - Geopolitical risk index: 123.60, up 14.93% from the previous day, down 27.38% from the previous week; VIX index: 16.93, up 1.62% from the previous day, up 2.05% from the previous week [13] Commodity Attribute - CRB commodity index: 299.63, down 0.61% from the previous day, down 0.87% from the previous week; offshore RMB: 7.0685, up 0.10% from the previous week [13] Fed's Interest Rate Expectation - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate changes from December 10, 2025, to October 27, 2027, are presented [14]

【最新伦敦银行情解析】 伦敦银已连续六个交易日在56.19至59.34美元区间内窄幅震荡，在经历了11月28日强势收盘于当日前高 附近的上升三角形突破后，市场波动率急剧收缩。这段平静的盘整期始于此前的一轮涨势，当时白银价 格以看涨锤形线形态收复10日均线，并从50日均线区域直接反弹启动上涨。这是典型的健康整理消化过 程，既能为趋势重新蓄积需求动能，又不会侵蚀既有的涨幅。 【要闻速递】 价格在前期高点下方窄幅整理而非深度回调，是市场内在力量稳固的标志。10日均线当前正向上朝价格 靠拢，该均线自被果断收复以来已连续两周未被触及，即将迎来本轮涨势启动后的首次真正考验。若能 在此成功坚守，将重现20日均线在11月完美防守后启动当前行情的经典走势，极有可能推动价格开启新 一轮加速上涨。 若能在首次测试中守住即将上移的10日均线支撑，并强势突破59.89–60.20美元关键技术阻力区，将有望 启动下一轮指向63美元以上的抛物线式上涨阶段；唯有决定性跌破50日均线与上升趋势线汇合支撑区 域，才会真正威胁当前这轮历史性牛市行情的延续。 格上基金研究员托合江表示，目前全球白银库存持续处于历史低位，实物供应紧张加剧，这也形成 了 ...

12月4日，黄金与白银在12月初同步上行，显示市场风险偏好与宏观预期正发生显著切换。白银率先突 破每盎司58美元的名义历史新高，而黄金在经历短暂获利回吐后重新企稳约4232美元附近，为下周的联 储会议积累进一步冲高的空间。本周初金价一度攀升至4265美元的六周高点，虽然次日回调至4164美元 附近，但随后迅速恢复至4200美元一线，年内累计涨幅依旧维持约60%，呈现数十年来最强劲的一次年 度表现。FPG财盛国际表示，贵金属在宏观不确定性升温阶段展现出典型的避险属性增强。 展望后市，短期关键变量集中在周五就业数据与联储12月政策指引。若政策基调偏向鸽派，黄金有望向 历史高点靠拢，白银甚至可能上试65美元区域。FPG财盛国际认为，当前行情虽具备突破动力，但在前 期涨幅过大背景下，市场进入事件密集期前的波动与获利了结压力也需被投资者纳入考量。 白银的波动性与趋势力度更为突出。12月2日创出58.39美元新高后，白银维持在57.60–58.00美元之间震 荡整理，同时其强势走势促使金银比进一步压缩至73：1。过去数月市场预期金银比将持续下行，而当 前结构也确实指向这一趋势仍未结束，首个支撑区在72附近。同时，历史经验 ...

大卫·德普图拉表示，特朗普的声明引发的疑问多于解答。他指出，在委内瑞拉设立禁飞区可能需要投 入大量资源和周密规划，具体取决于封锁领空的战略目标。委内瑞拉政府上周六下午发表声明，谴责特 朗普的言论是对该国主权的"殖民主义威胁"，并指出此举违背国际法。德普图拉强调："关键细节决定 成败。" 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普上周六（11月29日）通过社交媒体宣布，将对委内瑞拉及其周边领空实施全面禁飞。他 在Truth Social平台发文称："特此告知所有航空公司、飞行员、贩运者及走私集团：请将委内瑞拉全域 及周边空域视为完全关闭状态。" 多位美国政府官员对特朗普此番表态感到意外，并表示未获悉任何为封锁委内瑞拉领空而开展的军事行 动。五角大楼对此未予置评，白宫亦未作出进一步说明。委内瑞拉政府发表声明严正指出，美国总统的 声明"是违背国际法原则的敌对、单边且专横的行径"。 今日周一(12月1日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于13275一线上方，今日开盘于12720元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报13399元/千克，上涨6.82%，最高触及13520元/千克，最低下探12675元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The exchange rate of USD/CHF is influenced by the safe-haven characteristics of the Swiss franc and the divergent monetary policies of the two central banks, with the current trading around 0.8051 reflecting a slight increase from the previous close [1][2] Economic Indicators - Switzerland's Q3 GDP decreased by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, and industrial output fell by 2.1% year-on-year, indicating economic weakness [1] - The trade surplus in October was 3.2 billion CHF, with a narrowing decline in exports, partially offsetting the pressure from the appreciation of the Swiss franc [1] - The CPI in October showed a year-on-year increase of only 0.1%, raising concerns about deflation risks [1] Central Bank Policies - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a zero interest rate since June, but discussions about reintroducing negative rates are increasing due to economic and deflationary pressures, with expectations for a potential easing signal in December [2] - The Federal Reserve's core PCE in October was 3.4% year-on-year, reinforcing a cautious policy stance, with a reduced probability of a rate cut in December down to 65% [2] Market Dynamics - The USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing a "weak oscillation after overselling," currently positioned at the upper end of the critical range between 0.8000 and 0.8050 [3] - The market is caught in a dilemma, with the exchange rate lacking a clear trend due to the interplay of Fed policy uncertainty and the safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc [2] Future Focus Areas - Key attention will be on the Federal Reserve's December meeting and Powell's statements, which could influence the USD/CHF exchange rate towards the 0.8150-0.8180 range if a pause in rate cuts is indicated [4] - The SNB's policy direction in December will be crucial; any signal of rate cuts or negative rates could push the exchange rate closer to the 0.8000 mark [4] - Economic data from the U.S. and Switzerland, including core PCE and Q3 GDP details, will directly impact policy expectations [4] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fluctuations in international gold prices may strengthen the Swiss franc if risk aversion increases [4]

Group 1 - International gold prices have recently risen to $4100 per ounce after a period of fluctuation, with domestic gold jewelry prices also seeing significant increases, surpassing 1300 yuan per gram for most brands, and some top brands exceeding 1310 yuan per gram, setting new price records [1] - Commercial banks are adjusting the minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation products in response to rising gold prices, with Citic Bank announcing an increase in the minimum investment from 1000 yuan to 1500 yuan starting November 15, 2025 [3][5] - Several banks have shifted their gold accumulation product models from fixed amounts to variable amounts based on gold prices, allowing for more flexibility in investment [4][6] Group 2 - The gold accumulation business allows financial institutions to open gold accounts for clients, recording the weight of gold deposited over time, with a minimum unit of 1 gram [5] - As gold prices rise, banks are increasing the thresholds for gold accumulation products, with many banks raising their minimum investment amounts above 1000 yuan [5][6] - Analysts suggest that gold retains its status as a risk-hedging asset in investment portfolios, with its inflation-hedging properties remaining reliable despite recent price volatility [6][7]

Group 1 - The cautious sentiment in the precious metals sector is driven by changes in real interest rates, which are inversely related to the prices of precious metals [1] - Previous expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve led to a decline in real interest rates, supporting the prices of gold and silver [1] - As expectations for rate cuts diminish, the upward pressure on real interest rates increases, reducing the attractiveness of precious metals and causing price fluctuations [1] Group 2 - Precious metals possess safe-haven attributes, which may attract investment if high interest rates from the Federal Reserve increase global economic growth risks or geopolitical tensions escalate [1] - There exists a conflict between short-term cautious expectations and long-term support for precious metals, creating a dynamic market environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising gold prices and the positive outlook for gold stocks driven by market factors, including MSCI index adjustments and bullish predictions from financial institutions [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Impact - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached a new high, raising concerns among investors about the negative impact on the U.S. economy, which contributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and an increase in international gold prices [1]. - As of the latest close, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange reached $3992.9 per ounce, marking a 0.82% increase [1]. Group 2: Gold Stocks Performance - Hong Kong gold stocks experienced a collective rebound, primarily driven by two favorable factors: the inclusion of multiple gold stocks in the MSCI index, which is expected to bring in passive capital inflows, and significant upward revisions of gold price forecasts by international institutions [3][4]. - MSCI's recent announcement included the addition of nine Hong Kong stocks, including Zijin Mining, to the MSCI China Index, which will take effect after November 24, 2025. This adjustment is significant for the gold sector as index funds typically reposition before new constituents are effective, leading to strong support for gold stocks [4]. Group 3: Future Gold Price Predictions - UBS's global research department predicts a target gold price of $4200 per ounce by 2026, with potential for prices to reach $5000 if the Federal Reserve's policies become overly dovish or lose independence [5]. - Long-term views from various financial institutions suggest that ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credibility will enhance gold's monetary attributes, while central bank gold purchases and rising geopolitical risks in major economies will further boost gold's safe-haven appeal [5]. - Eastern Securities emphasizes that deteriorating fiat currency credibility and dual benefits from safe-haven demand will continue to drive gold prices upward, supported by weakening currencies in major economies [5].