Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Aluminum prices are under pressure, alumina prices are expected to fluctuate and decline, and cast aluminum alloy prices will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all neutral (0) [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,750, the LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,611. Trading volumes and positions in both domestic and international markets have changed. For example, the SHFE aluminum main - contract trading volume is 132,302, and the LME aluminum 3M trading volume is 17,313. The LME canceled warrant ratio is 3.03% [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract is 3,211. Trading volumes and positions have also changed, with the trading volume at 280,531 and the position at 122,006 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 20,135. The trading volume is 1,954, and the position is 8,695 [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The spot premium and discounts, premiums in different regions, processing fees, and price differences between refined and scrap aluminum have changed. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit is 3,951.96, and the aluminum spot import profit and loss is - 1,452.94 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price is 3,275, and the CIF price in Lianyungang is 400 US dollars per ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is - 257, and the price of Baotai ADC12 is 19,700 [1]. Other Information - **External News**: The US has imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss products, and Switzerland will continue to negotiate with the US. The Bank of England has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and inflation risks have intensified internal differences [3].

Core Viewpoint - The main driving factor for the Bank of England's interest rate cut decision is domestic factors, with a downward trend in the interest rate path over time [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - There is increased uncertainty regarding when to take action on interest rates, with no predictions made for quantitative tightening (QT) decisions after October [1] - The message released to the market indicates that the situation is "balanced," leading to a re-evaluation of the central bank's policy stance [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The consequences of rising Consumer Price Index (CPI) are emphasized as a significant concern [1] - The employment market is showing signs of weakening, which may influence future monetary policy [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - The steepening of the yield curve is noted as a global phenomenon, with the UK government bond yield curve being a consideration for QT decisions [1]

尽管美国总统特朗普最近首次亲自"上门"敦促降息，特朗普政府的官员和共和党人一再借"装修门"施压，美联储仍不为 所动。但这一次，联储暴露了自去年9月启动降息周期以来对降息行动最大的内部分歧，并且对经济活动的表述有偏鸽 派的调整。 美东时间7月30日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间仍维持在4.25%至4.5%。至 此，FOMC连续五次货币政策会议决定暂停行动。联储自去年9月起连续三次会议降息，合计降幅100个基点，自今年1 月特朗普上台以来，一直按兵不动。 本次会议的决定完全在投资者意料之中。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）的工具显示，期货市场预计联储本周保持利率 不变的概率接近98%，9月下次会议降息的概率将近65%。周三美联储公布决议前，就连美国财长贝森特和特朗普本人都 预计，这次联储还不会降息。 相比降息，美联储的内部分歧成为本次决议更大的看点。两名美联储官员在本次会议上都支持降息。自联储启动降息周 期十个月来，这是FOMC利率决议投票中反对票最多的一次。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的记者Nick Timiraos评论称，本次"罕见"地有两名官员反对维持利率不变，要求立即降息 ...

智通财经APP获悉，英国央行可能将很快放慢其5580亿英镑(7540亿美元)国债持仓的缩减速度。经济学 家期待下周政策会议能透露更多关于其长期资产负债表规划的信息。 在8月7日的政策声明中，除了可能宣布降息25个基点至4%外，英国央行还将对过去一年的量化紧缩 (QT)政策进行评估。政策制定者将于9月决定未来12个月的债券减持节奏。 过去一年，该央行通过拍卖售出130亿英镑国债，另有870亿英镑持仓自然到期。如果维持每年1000亿英 镑的缩减规模，由于到期债券减少，未来12个月需创纪录地拍卖510亿英镑国债。 Schaffrik指出，自2024年9月年度出售近500亿英镑国债以来，市场环境已发生变化："如此大规模的出 售可能会引发市场负面反应。" 尽管英国央行声称迄今抛售对国债收益率影响有限，但5月公布的调查显示，多数投资者预计QT规模将 从9月起降至每年750亿英镑，2026-27年进一步降至500亿英镑，最终于2028年结束主动减持。 当前QT政策面临较往常更大的不确定性，这既源于近期债券市场动荡，也因为英国金融体系流动性正 接近2008年金融危机以来的首次平衡状态。此外，英国央行在债券抛售中蒙受的巨额亏损 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the apparent prosperity of the U.S. economy, underlying structural vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly evident, particularly in the labor market and inflation dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The labor market remains robust, with nearly 90% of job growth in recent years concentrated in government, leisure and hospitality, and healthcare/education sectors, while key growth sectors like technology, manufacturing, construction, and professional services are slowing down [3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates in the short term, with market expectations for a potential rate cut in December if economic data weakens significantly [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is preparing for a potential exit from high interest rate policies, although it is not anticipated to cut rates on July 30, especially with active job creation and concerns over tariffs potentially driving prices up [2]. - Inflation signals are expected to emerge between July and September, with tariffs likely impacting CPI data, potentially leading to a month-on-month increase of 0.4% to 0.5% [2]. Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar is expected to remain strong in the short term, influenced by the Federal Reserve's stance and upcoming employment data, with potential upward movements against low-yield currencies [4][5]. - If the labor market shows resilience, the USD/JPY pair could rise to 150, while the USD/CHF may increase to 0.81, depending on risk appetite and ongoing arbitrage trading [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the objective of Quantitative Tightening (QT) has not changed according to the Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Taylor [1] Group 2 - The statement indicates a commitment to the existing QT strategy, suggesting stability in monetary policy direction [1] - This could imply that the Bank of England is focused on managing inflation and economic stability through its current QT measures [1] - The lack of change in QT objectives may influence market expectations regarding interest rates and economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Taylor, stated that quantitative tightening (QT) is not a predetermined path [1] Group 1 - Taylor emphasized that the approach to QT will be flexible and responsive to economic conditions rather than following a set trajectory [1] - The committee is open to adjusting its strategy based on the evolving economic landscape [1] - There is an acknowledgment that the impact of QT on the economy is still uncertain and requires careful monitoring [1]

Group 1 - The risk of a soft landing for the UK economy is increasing, with a slowdown in economic growth observed [1] - Concerns are raised that inflation may fall below the target [1] - The labor market is showing signs of strain, indicating the presence of idle capacity and an emerging output gap [1] Group 2 - Potential inflationary pressures are shifting downward, with worries about second-round effects from energy prices [2] - The process of inflation decline is ongoing [2] - Quantitative tightening (QT) remains a viable option, similar to interest rates, which are not on a predetermined path [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, emphasizes the need for stable and sustainable growth while aiming to increase the potential growth rate [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England will study the steepening of the yield curve during quantitative tightening (QT) [1] - There are no issues with the volatility in the UK bond market [1] - The pace of actively selling bonds is a matter that requires real-time decision-making [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of England is set to conduct an annual review of its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy, with a decision on whether to continue large-scale bond sales expected in September [1] - The current plan involves reducing government bonds by £100 billion (approximately $135 billion) annually, with the review focusing on the recent significant rise in long-term bond yields [1] - The complexity of this year's decision-making is heightened by a steepening yield curve, which is a phenomenon observed across major economies, not solely attributed to the Bank's QT [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that due to increased market volatility, the Bank of England may slow down its bond reduction pace after October [2] - The central bank's core objective is to gradually guide the market away from the high liquidity injected by previous Quantitative Easing policies, transitioning to funding support through repurchase operations [2] - The Bank is closely monitoring signs of tension in the pound money market, as the transition may increase market volatility risks [2]